More stories

  • in

    New Hampshire’s Senate Debate Reveals a Surprising Point of Agreement

    New Hampshire’s first Senate debate on Tuesday featured many jabs and parries that have been partisan staples of debates this year across the country, with Senator Maggie Hassan, a Democrat, and her Republican opponent, Don Bolduc, trading accusations about abortion, energy, inflation and more.But the debate also produced a surprising zone of consensus: Both candidates agreed that the cap on income that is taxed to fund Social Security should be raised. The tax currently applies to the first $147,000 of income and is withdrawn from workers’ paychecks.“Take that cap off and millions of dollars will flow in,” Mr. Bolduc said.Ms. Hassan agreed: “You can ask the wealthiest Americans to pay a little bit more into the system,” she said.While Democrats in Congress have long favored lifting the cap for certain high earners, Republicans have widely opposed the idea, a third rail for many in the party.“If you think taxing the wealthy is going to save Social Security, you’re wrong,” Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, said at a June hearing, after a report that Social Security would be unable to pay full benefits starting in 2035.Republicans have favored cutting benefits or raising the retirement age to keep the hugely popular benefit solvent. Mr. Bolduc, who is on the hard right on some issues, appeared to align with the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party on Social Security — at least regarding taxes. More

  • in

    Why Social Security’s Inflation Protection Is Priceless

    Automatically adjusted lifetime income is rare and worth protecting, our columnist says.The 8.7 percent cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security isn’t just a big benefit increase.It’s priceless.You can’t buy inflation-protected lifetime income like that on the open market, not from an entity as solid as the United States government.“People don’t appreciate what a terrific thing Social Security is, in so many ways,” said Charles D. Ellis, an author and investment consultant who has studied Social Security for decades. “The COLA is a reminder: When there is serious inflation, as we have right now, you can count on Social Security taking care of it for you.”If you are an investor, there are many ways of hedging against inflation, like I bonds, which are issued by the Treasury Department and currently pay 9.62 percent interest.But safe, monthly lifetime income that automatically keeps up with inflation? You get that with Social Security.“It’s just what investors need for retirement,” Zvi Bodie, professor emeritus in finance at Boston University, said in an interview. “But, unfortunately, you can’t really get it anywhere else.”How It StartedWhile the market value of Social Security’s inflation-adjusted income can’t be easily priced, it can be evaluated in limited ways.The new COLA is really big — the biggest since 1981, when the adjustment was 11.2 percent. These automatic, yearly inflation increases began in 1975, during a decade of high inflation, when politicians understood that retirees needed help to keep up with rising prices. Before then, it took specific congressional action to raise benefit levels.The first automatic increase was 8 percent in 1975; the highest was 14.3 percent in 1980. The adjustments didn’t drop below 5 percent until 1983, after the Federal Reserve, led by Paul A. Volcker, threw the economy into two successive recessions.Until last year’s 5.9 percent COLA, the previous nine annual adjustments were invariably below 3 percent. Social Security COLAs didn’t command big headlines.More on Social Security and RetirementMedicare Costs: Low-income Americans on Medicare can get assistance paying their premiums and other expenses. This is how to apply.Downsizing in Retirement: People selling their homes often have to shell out more to spend less. Here’s what to consider.Claiming Social Security: Looking to make the most of this benefit? These online tools can help you figure out your income needs and when to file.A Look at the Current NumbersBut high inflation has come back with a vengeance, and the current COLA is welcome for the roughly 70 million people, including retirees and the disabled, who receive Social Security benefits.For someone receiving $1,754 a month — the average monthly benefit for someone retiring in December — the COLA means an increase of about $153 a month, or $1,831 a year.For many people, these increases are absolutely critical.Consider a few statistics.Among older women who receive Social Security retiree or survivor benefits, 42 percent get at least half their income from Social Security. Among older men, 37 percent do. If you are living on Social Security, every cent matters after the price of food has risen 11.2 percent this year, as the latest numbers show.Even for fairly affluent people, the inflation-adjusted payments can be significant.Imagine that your earnings have put you at the high end of the national income distribution for many years. In addition, you have followed the standard advice to maximize benefits by not claiming Social Security until you reach 70. That will get you the maximum retirement benefit for Social Security, which is $4,194 a month, or $50,328 for this year.The inflation adjustment amounts to an annual increase of about $4,379, raising your yearly Social Security benefits to $54,707. And the inflation increase will be compounded, as part of your Social Security income, year after year.I don’t know about you, but the total strikes me as substantial. What’s more, if prices soar next year, there will be another significant inflation adjustment.Most jobs don’t afford this kind of protection, but Social Security is different. You don’t have to convince anyone that your income — now or in the future — ought to keep up with inflation.Social Security may seem irrelevant if you are young. You may believe it’s too early to think about retirement, or you may have been told that Social Security won’t be there for you when you are older.But be aware that these inflation adjustments are likely to affect you.All else being equal — that is, if your promised benefits aren’t cut because of future funding shortfalls — the inflation adjustments will increase what you receive down the road.Now, it’s true that unless Congress takes action, the Social Security Trust Funds are projected to run out of money around 2035. If that happened and Congress did absolutely nothing, the tax revenues coming regularly into the Social Security system would still pay about 80 percent of your promised benefits.But what about the rest of the money?I asked Mr. Ellis. He is a co-author of the book “Falling Short: The Coming Retirement Crisis and What to Do About It.”First, he said, Congress is virtually certain to fully protect people already receiving benefits. “No politician wants to tell older people, who vote in large numbers, that their benefits are being cut,” he said.As for everyone else, it’s important that people understand how valuable these benefits are and make their voices heard, Mr. Ellis said. Social Security has been short on funds before, and the Trust Funds can easily be built up again, much as they were in the 1980s. “I think the more people understand about Social Security,” he said, “the more likely it is that it will be preserved.” An Invaluable Benefit Without a Market PriceAll that said, how much would Social Security be worth if you could buy and sell a lifetime of benefits?You can’t really do this in financial markets, but let’s look more closely.In technical terms, Social Security is a form of an annuity — insurance that pays annual income for the rest of your life (and, for retirees, with benefits for your surviving spouse and children until they reach age 18).Annuities are sold by insurance companies in many shapes and sizes, but they aren’t popular, even though economists often recommend simple, low-cost annuities for safe and stable income.You can buy annuities that will increase their payouts by, say, 3 percent every year, but none are available now that include full cost-of-living adjustments like Social Security.There are two reasons for this, said Wade Pfau, a professor of retirement income at the American College of Financial Services. First, inflation was so low for so long that there was little demand for them, and the market withered. Second, as the current inflation surge demonstrates, “no one can accurately predict inflation, and it’s extremely difficult for insurance companies to make long-term projections and price the annuities properly,” he said.Ariel Stern, the chief operating officer of ImmediateAnnuities.com, which provides estimates of annuity costs, identified the only person who had ever used the service to buy an annuity with a full COLA. That was Jim Oatman, a 73-year-old actuary in Arizona, who purchased one from Principal for himself and his wife in 2018, shortly before Principal, the last company to offer such annuities, stopped selling them.In a telephone interview, Mr. Oatman said he had paid $200,000 for the annuity. Its monthly payouts started at $602 in early 2019. That was about half of what he said he could have gotten in monthly payments for an annuity without an inflation adjustment.“It’s expensive, but I’m a numbers guy, and I remember the 1970s and wanted the protection,” Mr. Oatman said. One COLA increased the payments to $635 a month, and another, bigger “bump” will come in November, he said, but added ruefully, “It will take years of inflation for me to catch up to what I would have had without that inflation adjustment.”Still, “it’s a risk thing,” he said. “If inflation goes very high for several years running, I’m going to feel like the smartest guy around.”Even when you could buy an annuity like that, the market was tiny. In addition, interest rates were lower a few years ago, and payouts for annuities were lower, too. For these reasons, we can’t really use Mr. Oatman’s annuity to come up with reliable market pricing for Social Security benefits.In addition, no private company is directly comparable to the U.S. government, which, even with its manifest problems, is backed by the world’s largest economy and most powerful military. In theory, the government should be safer than a mere corporation — if not for Social Security funding’s politics-induced uncertainty, which economists have been measuring for years.Still, for a ballpark estimate, it seems safe to say that as an annuity on the open market, the average monthly Social Security benefit awarded in December, even without that invaluable COLA, would be worth close to $300,000 and probably much more, based on estimates from ImmediateAnnuites.com.Even at the low end, that’s more than double the $144,000 that the average household had in 401(k) and individual retirement accounts in 2019, according to the most recent estimates provided by Anqi Chen, a senior research economist of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. The inflation adjustment has immeasurable value on top of that.If you are fairly affluent, consider this.As an annuity, the maximum Social Security benefit without any COLA would be worth at least $665,000 and as much as $909,000. Adding a COLA of any kind would push its value to $1 million, and much more than that for a full inflation adjustment linked to the Consumer Price Index, like Social Security’s.If anything, these numbers understate Social Security’s monetary value. They are intended merely to give you an appreciation of benefits that are, really, priceless.Anything that precious needs to be preserved.By all means, put away as much money as you can and invest it wisely.But these estimates suggest that the most important steps most Americans can take to fortify their retirement involve Social Security.Work as long as you can at a job you enjoy, and delay claiming Social Security until as late as possible — ideally, until you turn 70. That’s just a start.You must pay Social Security taxes your entire working life. If you want to collect what you are owed when the time comes, make it crystal clear to the political class that you expect every cent of the Social Security benefits you have been promised. More

  • in

    Biden Says Social Security Is on ‘Chopping Block’ if Republicans Win Congress

    WASHINGTON — President Biden warned on Tuesday that Republicans posed a threat to Social Security and Medicare, amplifying an effort by Democrats to make the fate of America’s social safety net programs a central campaign issue ahead of November’s midterm elections.The comments were part of a push by Democrats across the country to steer the political conversation away from soaring prices and growing recession fears and remind anxious voters that some Republicans have been calling for restructuring or scaling back entitlement programs that retirees have relied on for decades.The strategy is a return to a familiar election-year theme. Although Mr. Biden, who spoke from the White House’s Rose Garden, offered few details about how he would preserve the benefits, he insisted that if Republicans regained control of Congress they would try to take them away.“What do you think they’re going to do?” Mr. Biden asked, brandishing a copy of a plan drafted by Senator Rick Scott, Republican of Florida, that would allow Social Security and Medicare to “sunset” if Congress did not pass new legislation to extend them.A spokesman for Mr. Scott said the senator was fighting to protect Social Security and Medicare.The criticism has put Republicans on the defensive, with many arguing that their policies would ensure that Social Security and Medicare do not run out of money.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.A Focus on Crime: In the final phase of the midterm campaign, Republicans are stepping up their attacks about crime rates, but Democrats are pushing back.Pennsylvania Governor’s Race: Doug Mastriano, the Trump-backed G.O.P. nominee, is being heavily outspent and trails badly in polling. National Republicans are showing little desire to help him.Megastate G.O.P. Rivalry: Against the backdrop of their re-election bids, Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida are locked in an increasingly high-stakes contest of one-upmanship.Rushing to Raise Money: Senate Republican nominees are taking precious time from the campaign trail to gather cash from lobbyists in Washington — and close their fund-raising gap with Democratic rivals.Despite suggestions of their imminent demise, Social Security and Medicare are unlikely to be altered as long as Mr. Biden is in power. Top Republicans including Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader, have said that Mr. Scott’s proposal is a nonstarter.But decades of political squabbling have left the programs in limbo.Tens of millions of aging Americans rely on Social Security and Medicare to supplement their income and health care expenses. The finances of Social Security and Medicare have been on unstable ground for years, and Congress has been unable to come together to find a solution to secure the solvency of the programs..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Government actuaries said in June that the health of the social safety net programs improved slightly last year, because of the strength of the economic recovery, but that shortfalls were still looming.Mr. Biden did not offer a specific proposal for the programs on Tuesday beyond keeping them out of the hands of Republicans. He also took aim at Senator Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican who is facing re-election and has suggested that all federal spending, including for Social Security and Medicare, should be reviewed annually by Congress.“He wants to put Social Security and Medicare on the chopping block every single year in every budget,” Mr. Biden said. “If Congress doesn’t vote to keep it, goodbye.”Mr. Johnson said on Twitter on Tuesday that he wanted to save Social Security, Medicare and benefits for veterans, and that Democrats were telling “lies” about his proposals.“The greatest threat to these programs is the massive, out-of-control deficit spending enacted by Biden and Dems in congress,” Mr. Johnson said.The Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, which pays retiree benefits, will be depleted in 2034, at which time the fund’s reserves will run down and incoming tax revenue will be enough to cover only 77 percent of scheduled benefits. Medicare’s hospital trust fund, which does not affect benefits that cover doctor visits and prescription drugs, improved last year but is expected to encounter a shortfall in 2028.Concerns about the solvency of the programs come as retirees are grappling with the highest levels of inflation in four decades. Social Security payments are expected to increase by around 9 percent next month when a cost-of-living adjustment that is pegged to inflation is announced.Those increases are usually somewhat offset by an increase in Medicare premiums for doctors’ visits, but Mr. Biden said those premiums would not rise this year.Senators like Bernie Sanders, independent of Vermont, and Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, called earlier for expanding Social Security and extending its solvency by raising taxes on the rich. More