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      Stock Ownership Is What Really Divides Americans

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      In a pamphlet published in 1711, Jonathan Swift lamented the “folly” of those who “mistake the echo of a London coffeehouse for the voice of the kingdom.” Those informal salons were, he wrote, frequented by people whose wealth depended on their shares in the Bank of England or the East India Company or “some other stock.” If the responses to the Trump administration’s tariff policies have shown us anything, it is that, like most of the ills against which Swift railed, this unfortunate tendency to conflate stockholders with the nation remains very much with us.The greatest division in American life is not between so-called red and blue states, or between urban and rural citizens, but instead between those who own stock and those who do not. For those who do, economic security can be measured in portfolio statements; the rest — roughly 40 percent of Americans — must make do with such antiquated metrics as the cost of housing or even the price of eggs.This division is not merely economic; it is also ideological. Though many Americans own at least some stock, 10 percent of Americans own 93 percent of it. Yet the elite stock-owning class has convinced itself that what is good for the S&P 500 is good for America. Worse, many Americans who own stock through retirement plans or pension plans have been convinced to believe this, too, even though their interests tend not to align neatly with those of multimillionaires.The result is a kind of ideological capture in which any policy that does not serve the immediate interests of shareholders is dismissed as reckless, radical or economically illiterate. The common good, insofar as it is considered at all, must first be translated into the language of market returns. Can anything be good if it does not make the line go up? The question (we are told) answers itself.Like awed visitors to the oracle at Delphi, we consult the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 with solemn credulity, and their half-random fluctuations are taken as portents of divine favor, or else as intimations of the coming wrath of heaven’s gracious ones. All presidents — including Donald Trump — genuflect before this altar, and most of us implicitly regard any policy that displeases the great god Wall Street as a kind of sacrilege. We treat the stock market as the final arbiter of our collective well-being.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump’s Encouragement of Stock Investors Draws Scrutiny

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      Was the president manipulating the market with his comments, as his critics say, or reassuring Americans, as the White House maintains?President Trump began his Wednesday with some advice for those rattled by his steep tariffs.“BE COOL,” Mr. Trump told his followers on social media after the markets opened. Just a couple of minutes later he wrote, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”Hours after that, Mr. Trump sent the markets soaring when he paused the levies for 90 days. The S&P 500 climbed several percentage points in a matter of minutes and was on its way to its best day since the recovery of the 2008 financial crisis.Soon after Mr. Trump’s pause, Democrats and government ethics experts asked the perhaps obvious question: Did Mr. Trump give the green light to his followers to cash in on a forthcoming rise in stock prices?“How is this not market manipulation?” Representative Mike Levin, Democrat of California, said on social media, referring to action that is potentially illegal. “If you’re a Trump supporter and you did what he said and you bought, then you did great. On the other hand, if you’re a retiree or a senior or somebody in the middle class over the last few days that didn’t have the tolerance for risk and you decided to sell, you got screwed.”The news of Mr. Trump’s pause came as Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, was testifying on Capitol Hill. Representative Steven Horsford, Democrat of Nevada, pressed him on Mr. Trump’s aim.“It’s not market manipulation,” Mr. Greer said. “We’re trying to reset the global trading system.”“How have you achieved any of that?” Mr. Horsford asked. “So if it’s not market manipulation, what is it? Who’s benefiting? What billionaire just got richer?”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Stocks Jump in Asia After Trump’s Tariff Reprieve

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      Markets in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan soar after the U.S. president pauses punishing tariffs. Gains in mainland China were modest as trade hostilities heat up between Washington and Beijing.Following President Trump’s decision to pause punishing tariffs on dozens of countries, markets in Asia reacted predictably: Stocks soared in the countries that were spared.In early trading on Thursday, benchmark indexes rose more than 9 percent in Taiwan, 8 percent in Japan and 5 percent in South Korea. All three Asian economies were among the U.S. trading partners given a 90-day reprieve from Mr. Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs.While the U.S. allies won’t immediately face the 24 percent to 32 percent tariffs the Trump Administration had previously threatened, they will still be subject to a lower rate of 10 percent. That comes on top of 25 percent tariffs that Mr. Trump has imposed on goods including cars — a particular sore point for big auto exporters Japan and South Korea.In the United States, the reversal by Mr. Trump on Wednesday sparked the biggest one-day rally of the S&P 500 since October 2008, when stocks soared as investors anticipated central bank rate cuts in the wake of the global financial crisis.Huge Gains and Losses in One WeekModest gains or losses are the most common outcomes on S&P 500 trading days. But since last Thursday the index has had two steep drops and one of its biggest gains since 2000. More

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      Inside Trump’s Reversal on Tariffs: From ‘Be Cool!’ to ‘Getting Yippy’

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      Economic turmoil, particularly a rapid rise in government bond yields, caused President Trump to reverse course on the steep levies.For the past week, President Trump has been urging calm in the face of the financial chaos that he created and resisting calls for him to rethink his approach.“I know what the hell I’m doing,” he told Republicans on Tuesday as the massive tariffs he had imposed sent global markets into a tailspin. “BE COOL!” he said in a social media post on Wednesday morning. “Everything is going to work out well.”At 9:37 a.m. Wednesday, the president was still bullish on his policy, posting on Truth Social: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”But in the end, it was the markets that got him to reverse course.The economic turmoil, particularly a rapid rise in government bond yields, caused Mr. Trump to blink on Wednesday afternoon and pause his “reciprocal” tariffs for most countries for the next 90 days, according to four people with direct knowledge of the president’s decision.Asked to explain the decision, Mr. Trump told reporters: “Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy, you know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.”Behind the scenes, senior members of Mr. Trump’s team had feared a financial panic that could spiral out of control and potentially devastate the economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others on the president’s team, including Vice President JD Vance, had been pushing for a more structured approach to the trade conflict that would focus on isolating China as the worst actor while still sending a broader message that Mr. Trump was serious about cracking down on trade imbalances.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Delta Warns Trump’s Trade War Could Lead to a Recession

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      Delta Air Lines on Wednesday became one of the largest American companies to warn that President Trump’s escalating trade war was weighing on its business and the global economy.In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, Delta’s chief executive, Ed Bastian, said a recession was possible as companies pulled back spending.“Everyone’s being prepared for uncertainty,” he said, “if that continues, and we don’t get resolution soon, we will probably end up in a recession.”Airlines are highly sensitive to changes in the economy because air travel is among the first things that individuals and businesses can cut back on when they are worried about their paychecks or profits.Mr. Bastian expressed shock at the speed at which the trade tensions had taken the wind out of the economy.“We’re in uncharted, unprecedented uncertainty, when you look at what’s happened and the pivot so quickly to this self-inflicted situation,” he said.Mr. Bastian’s comments are at odds with those of the Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, who said on Wednesday that chief executives had told him the economy was solid.In its first-quarter earnings release, Delta said it no longer expected its business to grow in the second half of the year and added that a lack of the clarity about the economy prevented it from telling investors how much money it expects to make this year.Mr. Bastian said summer bookings were in line with last year. Some customs data show a sharp decline in foreigners entering the United States. Mr. Bastian said around 80 percent of Delta’s international bookings are made in the United States. “U.S. consumers are looking to go somewhere, particularly to try to get a reprieve from all the craziness we’re going through,” he said.Delta’s shares have fallen around 40 percent this year. More

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      Another Rocky Day in Markets: Stocks in Asia Resume Their Slide

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      With the S&P 500 nearing a bear market, shares in Asia decline as China and other major U.S. trading partners await the start of significantly higher tariffs.Market turmoil extended into Wednesday’s trading session in Asia, as stocks across the region faced renewed downward pressure amid the impending imposition of significantly higher taxes on imports to the United States.Benchmark indexes in Japan and Hong Kong opened down more than 3 percent on Wednesday morning, following a day on Wall Street when stocks whipsawed. The S&P 500 ended near a bear market, which is a 20 percent drop from a recent peak — a symbolic, and relatively rare and worrisome threshold for investors.Stocks slumped across Asia in early trading on Wednesday. The declines were less pronounced in mainland China, South Korea and Taiwan, where indexes fell between around 1 and 2 percent.President Trump uprooted investors last week with the announcement of tariffs on countries across the world. Significantly higher American import taxes on goods from dozens of other countries were set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday.After Tuesday’s drop, the S&P 500 closed 18.9 percent below its mid-February record, having plunged more than 12 percent just in the days since Mr. Trump announced his new tariffs. S&P 500 futures, which let investors bet on the direction of the index when it resumes trading in New York, were about 1 percent lower.Administration officials appeared to leave the door open for negotiations that could ultimately defuse the trade war, citing the fact that dozens of countries had approached the U.S. government in recent days to strike deals. But White House officials have sought to set a high bar for what the president is willing to accept, marking a shift in tone after Mr. Trump and his aides initially signaled they would not haggle over tariffs at all.“If they come to us with really great deals that advantage American manufacturing and American farmers, I’m sure he’ll listen,” Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, said in an interview on Fox News.But, he added, “after decades and decades of mistreating American workers, it’s going to be tough to get him to decide to really come to the table and sign on the dotted line.”Since Mr. Trump’s announcement last week of new tariffs, including a base tax of 10 percent on virtually all American imports, countries have responded with tariffs of their own on U.S. goods, or with threats of retaliation.China, the world’s second-largest economy, retaliated with 34 percent tariffs on American goods that are set to take effect at noon ET on Wednesday.Earlier this week, Japan emerged as the first major economy to secure priority tariff negotiations with the Trump administration. The news triggered a brief surge in Tokyo-listed stocks before they resumed their decline on Wednesday. More

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      Why Did Wall Street Get Trump So Wrong?

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      Donald Trump’s 2024 election sent many finance types into spasms of anticipatory ecstasy as they imagined freedom from regulations, taxes and unfamiliar pronouns. “Bankers and financiers say Trump’s victory has emboldened those who chafed at ‘woke doctrine’ and felt they had to self-censor or change their language to avoid offending younger colleagues, women, minorities or disabled people,” The Financial Times reported a few days before Trump’s inauguration. It quoted one leading banker crowing — anonymously — about finally being able to use slurs like “retard” again. The vibes had shifted; the animal spirits were loose.“We’re stepping into the most pro-growth, pro-business, pro-American administration I’ve perhaps seen in my adult lifetime,” gushed the hedge fund manager Bill Ackman in December.One Wall Street veteran, however, understood the risk an unleashed Trump posed to the economy. After Trump’s victory in November, Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, which provides macroeconomic research to major financial institutions, estimated that the chance of a recession had climbed to 75 percent. “The prospect of an escalation of the trade war is likely to depress corporate investment while lowering real household disposable income,” said a BCA report.The surprising thing isn’t that Berezin saw the Trump tariff crisis coming, but that so many of his peers didn’t. You don’t have to be a sophisticated financial professional, after all, to understand that Trump believes, firmly and ardently, in taxing imports, and he thinks any country that sells more goods to America than it buys must be ripping us off. All you had to do was read the news or listen to Trump’s own words. Yet Berezin was an outlier; most of the people who make a living off their financial acumen had less understanding of Trump’s priorities than a casual viewer of MSNBC.On Monday, as stocks whipsawed on shifting news and rumors about the tariffs, I spoke to Berezin, who is based in Montreal, about how Wall Street had gotten Trump so wrong. He told me that many investors who pride themselves on their savvy are in fact just creatures of the herd. “All these cognitive biases that amateur retail investors are subject to, the Wall Street pros, are, if anything, even more subject to them because they’ve got career risk associated with bucking the trend,” he said.People in finance, said Berezin, are more likely to be punished for being too cautious and pessimistic than for being too hopeful and aggressive. Last year, for instance, a famed strategist named Marko Kolanovic left JPMorgan Chase abruptly when his gloomy predictions about 2023 and 2024 turned out to be wrong, or least premature. Mike Wilson, also known for his bearishness, stepped down from his post as chair of Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee, though he stayed with the company. “You don’t get fired for being bullish, but you do get fired for being bearish on Wall Street,” said Berezin.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      What Is a Bear Market? Are We in One?

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      President Trump’s global tariffs have sent stock markets worldwide into a tailspin, and the S&P 500 on Monday entered bear market territory for the first time since 2022.Mr. Trump has seemed unmoved by the decline. He signaled on Monday that he had no plans to back off on tariffs, insisting that they would bring in “billions of dollars” in revenue and that other countries had been “abusing” the United States with their trade policies.Here is what to know about a bear market.What is a bear market?A bear market is a Wall Street term for a sustained market downturn, when a stock index falls 20 percent from its last peak.The 20 percent threshold signals investor pessimism about the future of the economy.Are we in a bear market now?The S&P 500, the benchmark U.S. stock index, opened lower on Monday. The index was already down 17.4 percent from its last high, on Feb. 19, and if it closes Monday’s trading with a loss of at least 3.1 percent, that would tip it into a bear market.Analysts at Morgan Stanley have warned that an even steeper drop is possible. Goldman Sachs on Monday slashed its forecast for economic growth, citing a growing risk of a U.S. recession next year.The Nasdaq Composite Index, as well as the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies that are more vulnerable to the economic outlook, are already in a bear market.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More