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      Donald Trump’s Chicken-and-Egg Inflation Problem

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      A surge in egg prices underscores how persistent inflation is spooking the markets and could check the president’s boldest economic policies.Egg prices are on an epic run, part of an inflation surge that could but the brakes on President Trump’s economic plans.Frederic J. Brown/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesJust in: Lawyers for Elon Musk said he’d withdraw his $97.4 billion bid for control of OpenAI if the company halted its efforts to become a for-profit enterprise. More below.Separately: You might recall that several years ago I wrote a series of columns, following a raft of mass shootings, that inspired the creation of a “merchant category code” for gun retailers so credit card companies could better identify suspicious activity the way they already did to help prevent money laundering and sex trafficking.Well, this week Representative Riley Moore, Republican of West Virginia, introduced a bill to make it illegal for credit card companies to require “merchant category codes that distinguish a firearms retailer from general-merchandise retailer.” That means gun retailers would be able to mask what they sell. What do you think of what’s happening?Scrambling Trump’s economic plans President Trump inherited a strong economy with booming labor and stock markets. But one economic holdover could tie his hands: stubbornly strong inflation.Investors are already getting antsy, with stock markets briefly plunging and the bond market suffering its worst day of the year so far after unexpectedly worrying revelations in the latest Consumer Price Index report. It raises questions about what options the White House and Fed would have to maneuver if prices continued to rise.The latest: The C.P.I. data showed headline prices over the past three months running at an annualized pace of 4.5 percent — well above the central bank’s 2 percent target.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Stocks Drop After Hotter Than Expected Inflation Reading

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      Investors are now betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates just once more this year, a drastic shift in expectations since late 2024.Stocks on Wall Street slumped at the start of trading on Wednesday, dragged lower by data that showed consumer prices rose more than expected in January, leaving the Federal Reserve little cause to lower interest rates again soon.The S&P 500 fell roughly 1 percent as trading got underway. The Nasdaq Composite index, which is chock-full of tech stocks that have come under pressure recently from rising global competition to develop the chips that will power the development of artificial intelligence, also fell around 1 percent.Fresh inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that prices rose 3 percent for the year through January, up from 2.9 percent in December. The “core” Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3 percent year-over-year.Signs of continuing price pressure is likely to encourage the Fed to refrain from further interest rate cuts in the coming months. For stock investors, higher interest rates means slower business activity, which can weigh on companies’ earnings and stock prices.The uptick in inflation in January “does not derail the longer-term downward trend in inflation,” said Kyle Chapman, a foreign exchange market analyst at Ballinger Group. But, he said, “it does reaffirm the consensus that cuts are going to come much more slowly than we had thought towards the end of last year.”Investors are now betting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at their current level until December. It’s a drastic shift in expectations since last year, when traders were expecting as many as four cuts for 2025, and even just a few weeks ago investors expected the next cut in rates as soon as June.The two year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to changes in investors’ interest rate expectations, rose sharply after the inflation report, up 0.1 percentage points to 4.36 percent, close to its highest level of the year.Wednesday’s drop comes after a bumpy three weeks for traders, with whipsaw swings in stock prices reflecting investors’ struggle to parse the flurry of executive actions taken by President Trump since he returned to the White House for a second term.The S&P 500 has risen roughly 3 percent since the start of the year and has nudged up 1.2 percent since inauguration day, despite the volatility.Impending tariffs are adding to concern about an acceleration in inflation. On Monday, Mr. Trump announced tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum. He has already imposed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, and broad 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico are set to take effect in March, after being delayed for a month.“Rising prices already appear to be a headwind, and the prospect of new trade barriers have the potential to further fuel inflationary pressures by increasing costs for businesses and consumers,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, a wealth management firm. More

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      When It Comes to Investing, Is A.I. Worth the Hype?

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      After the arrival of a less costly A.I. model from China, U.S. markets and academics are wrestling with the ultimate economic value of the technology.A.I. chatbots are fun, sometimes even useful and, until recently, endowed with the uncanny ability to mesmerize investors and fuel the U.S. stock market.But the excellent performance of a new, relatively cheap artificial intelligence engine from a Chinese start-up, DeepSeek, has perturbed the market and complicated the A.I. story.Investors are re-evaluating prominent companies swept up in A.I. fever, including Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla and the private start-up OpenAI. The notion that full-blown superhuman intelligence is imminent has spurred the-sky-is-the-limit valuations, as well as concerns about the political and social risks posed by advanced intelligence.One immediate question: Is the main approach to developing A.I. in the United States — pouring billions of dollars into chips and infrastructure — worth the expenditure for all companies if similar results can be achieved far more cheaply? DeepSeek’s lower-cost innovations add urgency to bigger, longstanding financial questions: How much are artificial intelligence companies really worth, and what will the broader economic value of A.I. ultimately be?Daren Acemoglu, a winner of the 2024 Nobel in economic science, gave me some answers. “There is a lot of hype in the industry,” he told me in a telephone conversation. Yes, he said, A.I. companies have made some “impressive achievements,” but he added that many financial and economic calculations were being based on mere “projections into the future that are sometimes exaggerated.”Professor Acemoglu, an M.I.T. economist with an interest in the impact of technical innovations on global economics, is skeptical about the more fervent A.I. claims. He ranks A.I. as a significant advance, perhaps with a macroeconomic effect akin to the telephone, which was no small thing.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      The Fed Is Stuck Fighting the Last War

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      Mired in a battle to contain surging prices, the central bank also needs to be nimble enough for the economic downturns to come, our columnist says.The battle against inflation during the Biden years is almost behind us. But we’re in danger of learning the wrong lessons from it.The Federal Reserve, holding its last meeting of the year this coming week, has been fighting runaway consumer prices for nearly three years. So far, at least, it has managed an unusual feat: The rate of inflation has dropped sharply from its peak and there has been no recession.Yet the Fed is stuck in a difficult place. With prices still rising faster than the central bank’s 2 percent target, the incoming Trump administration will be hypersensitive about inflation, which was a decisive factor in the November elections. At the same time, the new administration’s policies on tariffs and immigration could set off another inflation surge. So the Fed must remain acutely vigilant on the inflation front.But it will have to keep experimenting, to be ready for the curve balls coming from future recessions. Some economists believe the Fed would gain flexibility if it reconsidered its 2 percent inflation target, though they say the central bank can’t take that step now because it is under too much pressure to preserve its own institutional independence.Still, a single-minded focus on inflation could leave the Fed without the right tools for coping with economic downturns ahead.The Fed’s predicament reminds me of a general who is endlessly fighting the last war — conscientiously dissecting the tactics of recent battles and failing to prepare properly for the next ones.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Macy’s Earnings Report Details Multimillion-Dollar Accounting Error

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      Analysts see much bigger challenges for the retailer than lax accounting.With just two weeks until Christmas, Macy’s has been operating under a cloud. The retailer shocked Wall Street last month when it said that an employee had “intentionally” hidden more than $150 million over the past few years, forcing the company to delay an earnings report that analysts use to gauge its health as it enters the most important selling season.On Wednesday, Macy’s gave investors a full look at its financials and provided more information about the accounting snafu that involved how it measured the cost of delivering small packages. It found “no material impact” on its previous results, but nonetheless had to revise its accounts going back a few years and lower its forecast for profits this year.Macy’s confirmed in a filing that a single employee, who is no longer with the company, “intentionally made erroneous accounting entries and falsified underlying documentation, to understate delivery expenses” from late 2021 through the third quarter of this year. On a call with analysts, Adrian Mitchell, Macy’s finance chief, said the error was not made for personal financial gain.“This was not theft,” he said. “There was no impact to revenues, and there was no impact to cash or inventories as all vendors were fully paid.”Macy’s said it was taking measures to improve its financial controls, including “re-evaluating the risk of employee circumvention of controls.”Concerns still remain about how the company will turn around its falling sales and fend off activist investors pushing for major changes.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      South Korea Stock Markets Wobble After Martial Law Turmoil

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      South Korean stocks and the country’s currency fell on Wednesday morning after a tense night during which President Yoon Suk Yeol declared and then lifted a martial-law declaration.The benchmark Kospi index fell about 2 percent in early trading in Seoul. Shares of some of South Korea’s biggest companies were down, with Samsung Electronics losing more than 1 percent and LG Energy Solution and Hyundai Motor shedding more than 2 percent.After a steep drop overnight, the South Korean won found its footing somewhat. On Wednesday morning it was trading down by about 1 percent against the dollar since the initial declaration of martial law late Tuesday night.Just before midnight on Tuesday and early in the morning on Wednesday, South Korea’s finance minister, Choi Sang-mok, convened meetings in Seoul with officials from the central bank and key financial regulators. They pledged to meet daily to “establish a constant risk management system” and provide “unlimited liquidity support” until the stock, bond and currency markets stabilized.Mr. Choi said on Wednesday that the government would focus on shielding the economy, and that officials would “closely communicate” with the authorities of other countries with major economies. “In any given situation, the government will do its best to address economic concerns and to minimize disruptions in entrepreneurial and daily activities,” he said.The Bank of Korea’s monetary policy board said it would hold an emergency meeting on Wednesday. The central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates last week, citing “heightened uncertainties surrounding growth and inflation, driven by the new U.S. administration’s policies.”As opposition lawmakers demanded that President Yoon step down, analysts and investors were trying to gauge how long South Korea’s outbreak of political turmoil would persist.Market, consumer and business sentiment will likely “take a significant hit” for some time, as it did in the period around South Korea’s last presidential impeachment in 2017, said Min Joo Kang, a senior economist at ING.South Korea’s credit rating could also be affected, though that is uncertain at this stage, Ms. Kang said in a note.“South Korea’s democratic institutions and culture have withstood the stress test,” Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, wrote in a note. He expected “minimal” disruption to business and supply chains, “but it is extraordinary and troubling that it happened at all,” he added.Elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region, markets fell slightly but remained relatively calm. Benchmark indexes in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong all fell by less than 1 percent on Wednesday morning.Minho Kim More

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      BlackRock Acquires HPS, a Major Lender of Private Credit

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      The world’s largest investor is buying HPS, a major provider of private credit, for $12 billion.BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is known for its heft in the public markets, particularly through its iShares exchange-traded funds.But this year, BlackRock has been aggressively claiming a major foothold in the private markets. On Tuesday, it made its latest push, announcing a deal to buy HPS Investment Partners — a firm that specializes in making private loans to companies — for roughly $12 billion.Buying HPS, which manages $148 billion in investor money, would fundamentally reshape almost any other financial firm in the world. For BlackRock, which manages about $11.5 trillion for its clients, that figure is just a small percentage of its overall asset base.Still, the deal to buy HPS, after two other significant private-market transactions this year, is helping answer a question that BlackRock’s own investors have been asking: With so much money already, where can BlackRock grow?Early this year, BlackRock spent roughly $12.5 billion to acquire Global Infrastructure Partners, a major investor in airports and data centers across the globe. In June, it announced a $3 billion deal to buy Preqin, a major data provider for the private markets.The HPS deal will make BlackRock one of the five largest providers of private credit in the world.Private credit is a corner of finance that has exploded in recent years. A number of nonbank investment firms, including HPS, Blue Owl and Ares, have become major lenders to large, typically highly indebted companies. In doing so, they’ve taken market share away from major banks.In the past decade, this private-credit market has grown to about $2 trillion, more than 10 times its size in 2009. In its news release announcing Tuesday’s deal, BlackRock predicted that the market would more than double to $4.5 trillion by 2030.BlackRock’s chief executive and chairman, Laurence D. Fink, said investors were increasingly looking for a mix of both private debt and publicly traded bonds. “The blending of public and private credit is a standard for long-term durable fixed income portfolios,” he said on a conference call on Tuesday.Investors appeared to like the deal, sending BlackRock’s stock up nearly 2 percent Tuesday. This year, its stock has jumped 30 percent, outperforming the S&P 500, which is up about 27 percent.While most analysts, including Glenn Schorr at Evercore ISI, cheered the deal, Mr. Schorr offered a note of caution on BlackRock’s recent spate of deal-making: “It does come with execution risk as money, power and integration issues” arise. More

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      Walmart Stock Rises on Strong Earnings Ahead of Holiday Shopping Season

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      The bellwether retailer reported higher-than-expected sales in its latest quarter and upgraded its forecast for the rest of the year.Walmart has told its workers that it plans to “win” the holiday season. Ahead of the peak shopping period, the nation’s largest retailer appears well positioned, citing “broad-based strength” across its product range.Walmart said Tuesday that U.S. sales increased 5 percent in the third quarter, to $114.9 billion, easily surpassing analysts’ estimates. Sales at its U.S. e-commerce business jumped 22 percent, aided by pickup and delivery options as well as its expanding online advertising and marketplace business.The number of visits and the amount spent per visit both rose, a promising trend for the retailer. Walmart raised its full-year forecast for sales and profit, higher than the estimates it had already increased three months ago.Doug McMillon, Walmart’s chief executive, said the company had “momentum.” “In the U.S., in-store volumes grew, pickup from store grew faster, and delivery from store grew even faster than that,” he said in a statement on Tuesday. The results were somewhat affected by hurricanes and a strike by East Coast port workers, the company said, slightly raising sales but denting profits.Walmart, which brings in millions of customers each week, is a bellwether of U.S. consumer trends. The period between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day can make or break a retailer’s year, and companies are unsure about how freely shoppers will spend in the weeks ahead.Analysts have recently cautioned that Walmart’s success does not necessarily mean the rest of the retail industry will see similarly strong sales.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More