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      Is the Trump Trade Back?

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      Market observers see signs that investors increasingly believe Donald Trump will win the election, but there may be alternate explanations for a shift in sentiment. A rally in some stocks, cryptocurrencies and Donald Trump’s social media company are some signs of investors betting on the former president to win in November.Brendan Mcdermid/ReutersA trade makes a comeback The election polls may be deadlocked. But in the markets, some investors are indicating that they see Donald Trump as increasingly likely to win the White House, a belief that seems to mirror a swing in the prediction markets.Market observers see the return of the so-called Trump trade, which posits that certain industry sectors and financial assets — think oil drillers and cryptocurrencies — would benefit from the former president bringing in lower taxes and less regulation.The signs that the Trump trade is gaining steam: Stanley Druckenmiller, the billionaire financier, told Bloomberg yesterday that over the past 12 days, markets appeared “very convinced Trump is going to win.” (It’s worth noting that Druckenmiller said he didn’t plan to vote for either candidate.)Among the evidence Druckenmiller pointed to:A rally in bank stocks, which are up 8.5 percent over the past two weeks. (That said, banks have so far reported better-than-expected earnings.)Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group, the former president’s unprofitable social media company, have soared since late September, adding nearly $2 billion to its market value. But the stock’s volatile trading hasn’t always correlated with polls or prediction markets, and it’s unclear whether the company would draw more advertisers if Trump won. Some companies might flock to the platform to curry political favor; others might stay away.Bitcoin has risen about 13 percent in the past week. The cryptocurrency world has largely bet on a second Trump administration being friendlier to digital assets, though Vice President Kamala Harris has made appeals to the industry.Also, the dollar approached a two-and-a-half month high this morning as currency traders appear to be pricing in a Trump victory, betting that his economic policies would drive up inflation, lower the price of bonds and strengthen the dollar. (That said, Trump wants a weak greenback.)But there are potential pitfalls to betting on Trump. “It is a thing in the financial markets,” Holger Schmieding, the chief economist at Berenberg, a German bank, said of the Trump trade.He told DealBook: “I don’t agree with it in the long run. Higher tariffs and less immigration would hurt U.S. vitality.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Louis Vuitton Owner LVMH Sees Stock Drop on Weak China Sales

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      Weak sales in China at LVMH, the owner of Dior, Tiffany and more, sent a shudder through the luxury sector.Shares in LVMH dropped on Wednesday after the luxury goods giant warned about an “uncertain economic and geopolitical environment” and its latest earnings disappointed analysts.The conglomerate — which owns Dior, Tiffany, Fendi and more — is a bellwether for the industry. Its financial results, released on Tuesday after European markets closed, has sent a shudder through the luxury sector, particularly in response to slowing sales in the hugely important Chinese market.LVMH, which is run by the French billionaire Bernard Arnault, said that sales for last quarter fell 3 percent from the same period the previous year. The company also reported a decline in sales in its fashion and leather goods unit, which makes up about half of the conglomerate’s revenue, for the first time since early in the coronavirus pandemic.Shares of other fashion and lifestyle brands also declined, including Hermès and Kering, the owner of Gucci.Investors are jittery about the Chinese economy. Beijing introduced a package of measures last month that spurred a major rally in Chinese stocks, but details remain vague about the extent of the measures to bolster weak consumer spending, stabilize the real estate market and strengthen banks.China recently announced retaliatory penalties on European brandy — LVMH owns Moët Hennessy — in response to higher tariffs imposed by the European Union on Chinese-made electric vehicles.“Consumer confidence in mainland China today is back in line with the all-time low reached during Covid,” Jean-Jacques Guiony, LVMH’s chief financial officer, told analysts on Tuesday.Some industry observers are betting that LVMH will cope. “We are not sure this quarter particularly changes the LVMH story,” analysts at Bernstein wrote in a note. Even without a lot of detail, the stimulus signals in China are encouraging and demand will return, the analysts said.China’s housing minister is set to hold a news conference on Thursday and is expected to outline more measures to bolster growth.Danielle Kaye More

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      Profits Leap at Goldman Sachs as Banks See Steady Economy

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      The investment bank earned more than expected in the latest quarter, a theme for other big banks, too.Goldman Sachs on Tuesday reported a monster jump in its third quarter earnings, reaping $3 billion in profits — far higher than what Wall Street analysts had expected.How did the investment bank do it? The steadying economic environment helped — but so did a financial maneuver employed by Goldman’s chief executive, David M. Solomon, a few weeks ago.In early September, Mr. Solomon publicly sounded the alarm, saying many aspects of the bank’s business were stumbling in the third quarter. He warned that the bank’s upcoming earnings might disappoint.They didn’t — not at Goldman nor the two other major banks that reported results on Tuesday.Up first, a billion-dollar beatGoldman pulled in nearly $13 billion in revenue during the third quarter, over $1 billion more than projections. The bank’s $3 billion in quarterly profit was roughly equal to what it pulled in during the previous quarter, despite Mr. Solomon’s warning last month that profits might not hold up as well as they had in the first half of the year.A bank executive, briefing reporters on the condition of anonymity, said that trading activity — a core part of any investment bank — came in stronger than expected in September, the same period that the Federal Reserve announced a large cut in interest rates.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Boeing Seeks to Line Up Billions in Financing as Strike Goes On

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      The aerospace giant said it could raise as much as $25 billion in debt or equity over the next three years, including a $10 billion line of credit.Boeing on Tuesday announced steps to improve its financial position as costs mounted and a strike by its largest union entered its second month.In two regulatory filings, the company said that it could raise as much as $25 billion by selling debt or stock over the next three years and that it had entered into a $10 billion credit agreement with a group of banks, which it has not yet drawn on.“These are two prudent steps to support the company’s access to liquidity,” the company said in a statement. The banks are BofA Securities, Citibank, Goldman Sachs Lending Partners and JPMorgan Chase.The moves come days after Boeing revealed about $5 billion in new costs and announced a restructuring that included plans to cut 17,000 jobs, or 10 percent of its work force.The strike, which began a month ago, is costing the company tens of millions of dollars a day, according to various estimates. Most of the workers who walked out are involved in production of commercial airplanes, bringing much of that work to a virtual halt, though one major airplane program is manufactured at a nonunion factory in South Carolina.Talks between the company and the union representing 33,000 striking employees, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, broke down last week, with Boeing retracting its latest contract offer and each side blaming the other for intransigence.Julie Su, the acting labor secretary, visited Seattle on Monday to meet with Boeing and the union, the union said in a statement.The strike is very likely costing Boeing about $1.3 billion in capital a month, according to calculations by Sheila Kahyaoglu, an analyst at Jefferies, the investment bank. Given those costs and its need for more debt, raising $10 billion by selling new shares would provide the company “considerable flexibility,” she added.Last week, S&P Global Ratings also said it was considering lowering Boeing’s credit rating, depending on how long the strike lasts, to junk status, a downgrade that would raise Boeing’s borrowing costs. The company’s debt totals nearly $58 billion, up from about $9 billion a decade ago.And the chief executive of one of the world’s largest airlines, Tim Clark of Emirates, said recently that Boeing could be forced to seek bankruptcy protection if it was not able to issue more shares to improve its financial position. “Unless the company is able to raise funds through a rights issue, I see an imminent investment downgrade with Chapter 11 looming on the horizon,” Mr. Clark told The Air Current, an aerospace news publication. More

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      Tesla’s Self-Driving ‘Robotaxi’ to Enter the Spotlight

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      Elon Musk has said that the vehicle will add trillions to Tesla’s stock market value and that those who don’t believe him should sell their shares.Tesla on Thursday plans to unveil a product that Elon Musk, the company’s chief executive, has said will add trillions of dollars to its stock market value and fuel its growth.The product is a prototype of a self-driving taxi. And it will be shown at an invitation-only, evening event at the Warner Bros. studio in Los Angeles. Mr. Musk has promised that the cab, which he calls the Robotaxi, will be able to ferry passengers to any destination without human intervention, a feat that other companies have achieved in just a few places like Phoenix and San Francisco.Mr. Musk’s supporters and fans believe that the Robotaxi will open a lucrative line of business that will more than make up for Tesla’s recent struggles in the electric car market, where it has lost market share to more established carmakers. Mr. Musk has said people will be able to purchase Robotaxis for personal use and earn extra money by allowing the vehicles to ferry passengers, the automotive equivalent of listing a home on Airbnb.“An autonomous taxi platform will unlock a multitrillion-dollar market,” Tasha Keeney, director of investment analysis at ARK Invest, an asset management firm that owns shares in Tesla, said in a statement.But other analysts and autonomous driving experts are skeptical that Tesla can perfect the technology and make a profit from it anytime soon.A car capable of functioning as a self-driving taxi “is still several years away, and numerous technological hurdles, safety tests and regulatory approvals are still standing in the way,” Garrett Nelson, senior equity analyst at CFRA Research, said in a note this week.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      China Stocks Surge After Government Measures to Boost Economy

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      The government has fired up investors by encouraging banks to lend more to buyers of stock and real estate, but economists say more stimulus is needed.Share prices surged as trading resumed on Tuesday in mainland China following a weeklong national holiday, as investors rushed in to make bullish bets that Beijing’s leaders are committed to providing stimulus for the faltering Chinese economy.Before the break, the Chinese government jolted stock markets sharply higher with a package of measures aimed at halting the cycle of falling real estate prices and weakening consumer confidence.The central bank and other top financial agencies announced on Sept. 24 that they were cutting interest rates, reducing the minimum down payments for mortgages, and encouraging banks to lend more money for investors to buy shares.Two days later, the ruling Politburo issued an uncommonly blunt call for more to be done to help the economy. Several municipal governments soon followed by trimming or dismantling their restrictions on real estate purchases as a way to stabilize the housing market in their cities.

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      China’s CSI 300 Index
      As of Oct. 8, 2024 9:43 a.m. local time.Source: FactSetBy The New York TimesThe CSI 300, an index of large companies traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, soared 25 percent in heavy trading over the five sessions before the holiday. Market operators tested their systems on Monday in anticipation of another influx of activity.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Victims of Stanford Financial’s Fraud Scheme May Soon Be Paid. Some Already Sold Their Claim.

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      Not having much insight into what may happen next in the case of a fraud orchestrated by Robert Allen Stanford, many of the victims sold the rights to any future payout.It’s been 15 years since Thomas Swingle first learned that about $1 million of his family’s savings had gone up in smoke, after the financier Robert Allen Stanford was exposed for having sold billions in fraudulent certificates of deposit to investors around the world.The memory of those days is still painful.“It was literally a life-changing event,” Mr. Swingle, 72, said of the $7 billion scheme that unraveled in early 2009. “It is like someone hit you in the chest with a sledgehammer.”Now, victims of Mr. Stanford’s company, Stanford Financial, are on the verge of recouping some of their losses, but Mr. Swingle and his wife, Cindy Finch, have to contend with another decision they made: In 2021, they agreed to sell their claim to any future settlement to an investment fund for around $60,000.That means they won’t get a penny of the funds that are about to be disbursed. Instead, it’ll all go to the claim buyer.It’s a decision fraud victims have to agonize over in the wake of a big financial scam: Large investors offer them cash in exchange for the rights to any future payment. Many small investors who don’t have much insight into what might happen next may feel they don’t have a choice but to settle for a quick lump sum, rather than wait for a future payment that may never come.When Mr. Swingle and Ms. Finch sold their claim, he said, it appeared Stanford’s defrauded customers were unlikely to get anything back at all. Had the couple held on to the rights, they might be able to claim as much as $350,000.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Stocks Tumble in Japan After Party’s Election of New Prime Minister

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      Stocks dropped after Japan’s governing party chose Shigeru Ishiba, a critic of the country’s longstanding ultralow interest rates, as its leader.Stocks in Japan fell sharply after the country’s governing party chose a leader some view as hawkish on interest rates, underlining how central bank decisions continue to set the course of the world’s fourth-largest economy after decades of easy money policy.On Friday, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party elected Shigeru Ishiba, a proponent of raising interest rates to help curb inflation, as Japan’s next prime minister.Mr. Ishiba narrowly defeated Sanae Takaichi, a disciple of Shinzo Abe, who remains committed to the former prime minister’s longstanding policies aimed at strengthening Japan’s economy by maintaining ultralow interest rates.Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell more than 4 percent in early trading on Monday.Some economists said the decline, which they described as the “Ishiba Shock,” was caused by the unwinding of stock trading that reflected expectations that Ms. Takaichi would be elected.The market jitters show how the recent L.D.P. election came at a pivotal moment for the Japanese economy.Following a recent surge of inflation, the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates twice this year. The bank’s governor, Kazuo Ueda, has indicated he plans to continue increasing rates, though it is unclear how quickly that might happen.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More