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    Five Missing Skiers Found Dead in Swiss Alps

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    The police said weather conditions had deteriorated after the group set out from the town of Zermatt over the weekend. The search continued for a sixth person.Five missing skiers were found dead in the Swiss Alps and the search was ongoing for a sixth member of their group, the local police said on Monday.The skiers set out from the Swiss resort town of Zermatt on Saturday morning, aiming for the village of Arolla, across a series of snow-covered peaks.A relative alerted rescue services on Saturday afternoon that the group of Swiss citizens age 21 to 58 had failed to arrive at the village, according to a statement from the Valais region’s police force.One of the skiers managed to call for help about an hour later, allowing rescuers to locate the group near the peak of the Tête Blanche mountain at about 11,000 feet of altitude, the commander of the force told a news conference on Monday. But severe weather conditions and a risk of avalanches forced the search to be suspended until the next day.The rescuers had “tried the impossible,” Christian Varone, the commander, said. But, he added, “sometimes in the face of nature, one must surrender” so as not to put the lives of rescuers in “grave danger.”Christian Varone, center, commander of the Valais region police, told a news conference on Monday that rescuers had “tried the impossible.”Fabrice Coffrini/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesSearch and rescue efforts resumed on Sunday, and the police said that the five bodies were discovered at about 9:20 p.m.Mr. Varone said an investigation was underway to determine cause of death, but noted that the skiers “found themselves in an extremely complicated situation” in low temperatures.Weather conditions in Zermatt were “relatively good” when the group departed but had quickly deteriorated, he said.In the mountains, “we can get going and everything changes very fast,” he added.Seven hikers died in the same area in the spring of 2018, when they got caught in a storm and froze to death, according to a recent documentary. More

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      The Davos Consensus: Donald Trump Will Win Re-Election

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      In private, many business and political leaders at the World Economic Forum say they expect Donald Trump to return to the White House. Many business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland say Donald Trump will win the race for the White House.Denis Balibouse/ReutersThe Davos consensus on the presidential election Publicly, the global business leaders who gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, haven’t wanted to predict the winner of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The closest they’ve come? Referring to it as a “geopolitical risk.”But talk to executives privately, and they’re more explicit: They expect Donald Trump to win and while many are worried about that, they are also resigned to it.The predictions of a Trump victory came in different forms. Many pointed to the headlines and the mood in the U.S. One senior banker told DealBook that you only had to look at the polls to figure out that Trump was on track to win.Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase also got a lot of attention for his comments. In an interview with Andrew on CNBC, he didn’t predict that Trump would win, but suggested that dismissing the former president and his supporters would be a mistake.“Just take a step back and be honest,” Dimon said, listing the things that he thought Trump got at least partially right: NATO, immigration, the economy, China and more. “He wasn’t wrong about some of these critical issues, and that’s why they’re voting for him,” he said.“I think this negative talk about MAGA will hurt [President] Biden’s campaign,” he added.That said, the Davos crowd often gets things wrong. A common critique of those who attend the forum is that they are a contra-indicator of what’s to come, so their expectations could bode well for Biden or for Trump’s Republican rivals. “Trump is already the president at Davos — which is a good thing because the Davos consensus is usually wrong,” Alex Soros, the son of George Soros, said on a panel.A little history: The Davos consensus was that Hillary Clinton would beat Trump in 2016. And in 2020, the prevailing view was that there were few risks to the economy … as the pandemic began to explode.Seen and heard:Perhaps the biggest complaint among attendees was about the long lines everywhere, especially at the Grandhotel Belvédère. Many complained that the process of entering the building — with wait times sometimes reaching an hour — was worse than ever and it didn’t matter whether you were a business titan or a less famous guest. One executive complained to DealBook that the security was more restrictive than at U.S. airports because he had to take off his Apple Watch every time. At previous gatherings, executives wanted a room at the Belvédère because the hotel was considered the best in town and was closest to the main venue — but many told DealBook that they no longer do.Despite the rigid class system — people are assigned different colored badges that grant various levels of access — the event has odd ways of leveling the playing field, at least a little. At last night’s Salesforce party, the hottest ticket of the week, even billionaires had to wait outside with everyone else to get in to watch Sting perform.HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING Congress approved a stopgap spending bill to avert a government shutdown. President Biden is expected to sign the bill into law on Friday to keep the federal government operating through to early March. It’s the third such stopgap bill since October.Jamie Dimon gets a big bump in pay. JPMorgan Chase’s board granted its C.E.O. $36 million in compensation for 2023, a year in which the bank weathered a banking crisis and rising interest rates, and generated record profit. The 67-year-old, the longest tenured chief of a large American bank, has not given any indication on when he might retire.Reddit reportedly considers a March public listing. The social media platform is said to be moving forward with a long-held plan to file for an I.P.O. in the first quarter, according to Reuters. The market for new listings has been a bumpy one and the outlook looks little improved this year.Macy’s will cut thousands of jobs. The country’s biggest department store operator will lay off 2,350 employees, about 3.5 percent of the work force. The cuts come as Tony Spring, a veteran retail executive, prepares to take over as C.E.O. next month. Macy’s has been struggling with slowing sales since the pandemic-inspired shop-from-home boom shook up the retail sector.BYD doubles down on overseas expansion. The Warren Buffett-backed Chinese maker of electric vehicles plans to invest $1.3 billion in a new Indonesian factory as it continues its aggressive push beyond its home market. Indonesia is home to the world’s largest reserves of nickel, a crucial mineral in production of E.V.s.The E.S.G. exodus intensifies The money flowing out of E.S.G. funds has gone from a trickle to a torrent as investors sour on a sector hit by greenwashing concerns, red-state boycotts and boardroom debates.The investing strategy has become increasingly politicized after being used by companies to address environmental, social, and governance issues among their employees, customers and other stakeholders. In a sign of the times, the phrase has been scrubbed from the World Economic Forum’s official program in Davos, after being on the agenda in previous years.Investors pulled $5 billion out of E.S.G.-focused “sustainable” investment funds last quarter, according to a new report by Morningstar. The withdrawals occurred despite a wider market rally at the end of 2023.E.S.G. funds saw outflows of $13 billion for the full year. All in all, it was the “worst calendar year on record,” wrote Alyssa Stankiewicz, Morningstar’s director of sustainability research.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      The Volodymyr Zelensky-Donald Trump Divide Looms at Davos

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      Ukraine’s leader and the potential re-election of Donald Trump as president are dominating discussion at the World Economic Forum. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, tried to tamp down worries about Donald Trump, and whether his potential re-election would lead to a drop in support for his country.Radek Pietruszka/EPA, via ShutterstockZelensky and Trump loom over Davos Two people are having an outsize impact at the World Economic Forum, and one of them isn’t even there.One is Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, who put on a full-court press of business and global leaders at the forum in Davos, Switzerland. The other is Donald Trump, whose potential re-election is dominating the discussion among attendees.Zelensky used an expletive to describe a Trump claim about containing Vladimir Putin. At a Q. and A. with journalists that Andrew moderated, Zelensky dismissed the idea that Trump could stop the Russian president from going after other parts of Europe. Putin, he added, “will not stop — but the question is what will the U.S. and Trump do after this point, because in this case it will mean that Europe lost the most useful and most strong army in Europe because we lost Ukraine.”Zelensky initially sought to tamp down worries about Trump, and whether his potential re-election would lead to a drop in support for Ukraine. But he also appeared somewhat fearful about the prospect. “One man cannot change the whole nation,” Zelensky said in the Q. and A., adding that deciding on the next president is “a choice for the American nation and only the American nation.”The Ukrainian leader acknowledged that a win for Trump, who has opposed U.S. aid to Ukraine, could affect his country’s military campaign or settlement talks. “Radical voices from the Republican Party” have created tension and pain for the Ukrainian people, he said.Zelensky isn’t the only leader at Davos worried about Trump. Multiple attendees have told DealBook that the outcome of the election is a potential risk for business, particularly after the former president thumped his Republican rivals in the Iowa caucuses.The Ukrainian leader has sought to shore up global business support. He spoke at a private gathering of executives organized by JPMorgan Chase, which is advising Ukraine on its reconstruction efforts.In the audience at the Congress Center for the talk were Steve Schwarzman of Blackstone, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater, David Rubenstein of Carlyle and Michael Dell of Dell, DealBook hears.Zelensky also spoke about how U.S.-China tensions are affecting Ukraine. Bringing Beijing on board with the country’s reconstruction is important, given China’s size and influence on Russia, he told the C.E.O.s. But Ukraine is seen as an American concern, not a global one.Seen and heard around town: The traffic on the main street was so bad that John Kerry, President Biden’s climate envoy, hoofed it to a meeting. And the annual wine tasting hosted by Anthony Scaramucci, the financier and former Trump official, well, ran out of wine.HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING Rate-cut concerns rattle the markets. European stocks and bonds are down this morning, after Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank president, warned that interest rates may not fall until the summer, and inflation in Britain rose unexpectedly. U.S. futures are also down after Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, signaled yesterday that it was premature to consider a rate cut in the first quarter.Disney formally rejected Nelson Peltz’s board nominees. The entertainment giant has submitted a slate of directors — including James Gorman of Morgan Stanley and Mary Barra of General Motors — and snubbed the activist investor, who has criticized Disney over strategy and succession planning. Separately, compensation for Bob Iger, Disney’s C.E.O., for fiscal 2023 topped $31 million.BP appoints a new C.E.O. The energy giant today named as its new chief Murray Auchincloss. The former C.F.O. stepped in as interim chief four months ago after his predecessor, Bernard Looney resigned for failing to disclose relationships with employees. Auchincloss has indicated that he will follow Looney’s strategy to build up the company’s renewables business and cut back its oil and gas production by the end of the decade.China’s conundrum China delivered a double dose of bad news this morning, pushing down markets in Asia. Official data shows that the economy grew last year at its slowest pace in decades and that the country’s population declined again.The readings are another sign of deeper problems in the world’s second-largest economy, as it grapples with a property crisis, weak consumer confidence, falling exports, deflationary pressures and big demographic challenges.The economy grew 5.2 percent last year, up from 3 percent in 2022 when strict coronavirus restrictions were in place. That was better than the official target of about 5 percent but 2024 is expected to be tougher, with a Reuters poll of analysts forecasting growth that will probably slow to 4.6 percent.The population decline points to bigger challenges. The country recorded more deaths than births for a second straight year. Beijing is worried because fewer people means fewer consumers, and it needs working-age people to fuel growth. Retail sales in December were lower than expectations, too, while industrial output barely surpassed them.A post-Covid boost hasn’t materialized. “Chinese authorities and some international economists believed that China’s economic downturn in the past few years was caused by the “zero Covid” policy,” Yi Fuxian, a scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Madison and an expert on Chinese demographics, told DealBook. “But China’s economic recovery was much weaker than expected last year, as the core drivers of the downturn were aging and a declining work force.”Structural reforms are needed to address these new realities. But for the short term, China will continue to rely on export-led growth at a time when many Western companies are already looking to move parts of their supply chains elsewhere.A federal judge has struck down JetBlue’s proposed $3.8 billion deal to buy Spirit Airlines, which would have been the biggest such tie-up in a decade.Allison Dinner/EPA, via ShutterstockAn airline deal hits turbulence The Biden administration scored a major victory yesterday after a federal judge struck down JetBlue’s proposed $3.8 billion acquisition of Spirit Airlines, a low-cost rival, ruling that the merger would harm competition.The decision blocks the airline sector’s biggest attempted tie-up in the U.S. in over a decade, and throws into question the industry’s efforts to consolidate. President Biden hailed the ruling as “a victory for consumers everywhere who want lower prices and more choices.”The Biden administration says airline mergers have made travel more costly. Last year, the Justice Department won a lawsuit that forced JetBlue and American Airlines to end a regional code-sharing alliance.The Justice Department argued that a JetBlue-Spirit combination would remove a low-cost competitor from the market, messing with the economics of airfares. The judge, William Young, agreed, saying that combining forces would “likely incentivize JetBlue further to abandon its roots as a maverick, low-cost carrier.”Shares in Spirit plunged after the decision. Stock in the budget airline, which received bailout funding during the coronavirus pandemic’s early days and is known for its yellow planes and no-frills service, sank 47 percent yesterday. The companies have not yet said whether they will appeal.What next? Alaska Airlines’s $1.9 billion deal to acquire Hawaiian Airlines could also face tough scrutiny.Big fish to fry at the Supreme Court The Supreme Court justices will hear a case today that started with commercial herring fishermen challenging a rule about paying the regulators who oversaw them. The legal fight is hugely consequential, and could ultimately limit the powers of federal agencies.The case challenges the power of administrative law. Courts today must defer to the hundreds of agencies that interpret a mountain of federal rules in regulating industry. Critics say this doctrine — known as Chevron deference — handcuffs judges, robbing them of the power to review and reverse agency actions.Lawyers for the fishermen are expected to argue that the principle should be overruled, or at least simplified. The arguments won’t fall on deaf ears. Justice Neil Gorsuch has written that the Chevron deference doctrine “deserves a tombstone.”The death of the principle could hobble regulators because their decisions could be overturned in court. Such a prospect is key to conservatives seeking a weaker administrative state. Court records show that the fishermen’s lawyers have links to Americans for Prosperity, a group funded by the petrochemicals billionaire Charles Koch, The Times’s Hiroko Tabuchi reports. Koch, the chairman of Koch Industries, is a longtime supporter of anti-regulatory causes.This case is part of a larger conservative campaign. A 2022 Supreme Court decision that constrained the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority on emissions regulation bolstered right-leaning activists. That case has helped opened the door to further legal challenges to regulators’ powers, including one this term involving the S.E.C.What to watch for in 2024 The Atlantic Council, an international affairs research organization, gave DealBook a first look at its annual list of the top risks, opportunities and under-the-radar phenomena to watch this year.Geopolitical conflict is a big focus. There is a “medium to high” probability that the Israel-Hamas war widens, according to the analysis, and that is underscored by intensifying U.S.-led strikes on Iran-backed Houthi rebels who are attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea corridor.Other hot spots include Ukraine and Taiwan. The West could pull back funding for Ukraine, the report’s authors write, making a Russian victory more likely. Meanwhile, China could choke off Taiwanese ports with a naval blockade rather than risking an invasion of the self-governed island nation.“Smartifacts” may be an opportunity. Cars, appliances and personal electronics will increasingly be equipped with artificial intelligence to better interact with the physical world, the analysts write. They predict that “2024 will be the year when A.I. goes mainstream, and not just on our screens,” potentially yielding an “entirely new class of devices.”Could white paint be an under-the-radar opportunity? The Atlantic Council also compiles an annual list of underappreciated risks and opportunities that it calls “snow leopards,” named for the well-camouflaged mountain cats.This year, the list includes super reflective white paint that can help reduce emissions and reliance on energy by reflecting 98 percent of the sun’s rays. “It’s one of those things that seems pretty simple, but it could have an outsize impact,” said Imran Bayoumi, an associate director at the organization.THE SPEED READ DealsUber is shutting Drizly, the alcohol-delivery business it bought in 2021 for $1.1 billion. (WSJ)Investors are raising billions to buy discounted stakes in venture capital-backed tech start-ups. (FT)Synopsys, a supplier to the chips sector, has agreed to buy Ansys, a software firm, for $35 billion. (NYT)PolicyThe Supreme Court denied a request to hear an antitrust case between Epic Games and Apple, leaving a lower-court ruling that was seen as a win for Apple in place. (Axios)Congressional leaders agreed a $78 billion deal to expand the child tax credit and other popular expired business tax breaks. (NYT)Best of the restHarvard is trying to smooth relations with Silicon Valley after turmoil over antisemitism on campus. (WSJ)“Airbus Is Pulling Ahead as Boeing’s Troubles Mount” (NYT)Hockey die-hards are building snazzy new rinks in their backyards. (WSJ)We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com. More

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      in Elections

      Elisabeth Kopp, Swiss Politician Who Made History, Dies at 86

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      In 1984 she became the first woman elected to the country’s governing council, but a scandal prevented her from being the first woman to serve as president.Elisabeth Kopp, who in 1984 overcame accusations involving her husband to become the first woman elected to Switzerland’s governing Federal Council — but who could not overcome another scandal a few years later, also related to her husband, and resigned when she had seemed likely to be the country’s first female president — died on April 7 in Zumikon, southeast of Zurich. She was 86.Her death was announced on April 14 by the federal chancellery, The Associated Press reported. The cause was not specified.Mrs. Kopp had been mayor of Zumikon for a decade and had served two terms in Parliament when a retirement opened up a seat on the seven-member Federal Council, which runs the main government departments and whose members take turns serving a one-year term as the country’s president.Mrs. Kopp was one of the more left-leaning members of the conservative Radical Democratic Party, known for her work on environmental issues as well as for advancing women’s causes, and polls showed her to be popular. But the effort to elevate her to the council prompted her political enemies to stir up dirt on her husband, Hans Kopp, a lawyer.The attacks riled Mrs. Kopp’s supporters.“Swiss feminists and liberal politicians have reacted with indignation to press reports that the husband of Switzerland’s first woman candidate for the country’s highest political office was suspended from legal practice for six months in 1972 after charges that he spanked secretaries in his firm,” The Guardian reported in 1984.“In 1971,” the newspaper continued, “a lawyer in Mr. Kopp’s firm said that Mr. Kopp had punished misdemeanors in the office by wielding a bamboo cane on bare bottoms.”His right to practice law was suspended for six months by a Zurich lawyers watchdog commission. But the mudslinging backfired: In early October 1984, Mrs. Kopp won election to the council anyway, with Parliament voting 124 to 95 to select her over a male candidate, Bruno Hunziker. Commentators at the time said that the attempts to undermine Mrs. Kopp’s candidacy probably only strengthened it.Her election was an important moment in the push for women’s equality in Switzerland, a country that had lagged behind most of Europe in that area; women did not gain the right to vote in federal elections there until 1971.Mrs. Kopp was the first woman to serve in the seven-member cabinet. She told The A.P. at the time that her election was a sign that “equality of the sexes is taken seriously now.”But, she said, being a woman in the largely male universe of politics — only about a tenth of the members of Parliament were women at the time — meant extra challenges.“In politics, women must do better than men if they want to succeed,” she said.Mrs. Kopp in 2010. She had been one of the more left-leaning members of the conservative Radical Democratic Party, known for her work on environmental issues as well as for advancing women’s causes.Gaetan Bally/Keystone, via Associated PressEach council member heads a federal department, and during her tenure Mrs. Kopp’s titles included justice minister and interior minister. In 1988, it was her turn to rotate into the vice presidency, and she was duly elected by Parliament late that year. But she never took the post, because of another scandal related to her husband.Reports came to light that Mrs. Kopp, who was minister of justice at the time, had recently tipped off her husband that a company he was involved with was the focus of a money-laundering investigation and urged him to cut his ties, which he did. She at first denied any impropriety — “I wouldn’t like one to think that I could have committed or tolerated wrongdoing,” she said at the time — but she resigned from the council because of what she called “unbearable pressure.”She eventually acknowledged providing information to her husband, and in 1989 she was indicted on charges of violating official secrecy laws. During her trial in February 1990, admirers applauded her as she left the courthouse each day. A Supreme Court jury acquitted her. Had she not resigned, she would have become president that same year.Elisabeth Ikle was born on Dec. 16, 1936, in Zurich to Max and Beatrix Ikle. Her father was a director general of the Swiss National Bank, and her mother helped establish a nursery school.Mrs. Kopp was a skilled figure skater in her youth. She studied law at Zurich University and graduated with honors. She met Mr. Kopp while doing volunteer work on behalf of Hungarians who fled to Switzerland in 1956 after the Soviet Union crushed a popular uprising in Hungary.As interior minister, Mrs. Kopp was often the government’s public voice on immigration — a contentious issue in Switzerland, especially as people from countries like Sri Lanka sought to come there. She was seen by some as taking an anti-immigrant stance, although she said her concern was about “false” asylum seekers — people seeking to move for economic reasons rather than because of political persecution.“This leads to an increase in xenophobia,” she said in 1987, “which makes it harder for us to fulfill our human obligations.”After her political career, Mrs. Kopp did postgraduate studies in European law and human rights law and worked at her husband’s law firm. Mr. Kopp died in 2009. Information about Mrs. Kopp’s survivors was not immediately available.The first woman to serve as Switzerland’s president, Ruth Dreifuss, was elected in December 1998. More

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      in US Politics

      The week where decades happened: how the west finally woke up to Putin

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      The week where decades happened: how the west finally woke up to Putin From Germany’s shock military spending rise to sanctions unity, leaders have come together over the war in Ukraine

      Russia-Ukraine war: live news
      Lenin, a Russian leader as obsessed with history as Vladimir Putin, famously said: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” This has been the latter. The little more than a week since Russian troops invaded Ukraine has indeed shaken the world. Change has been telescoped, national taboos broken, moribund institutions given purpose and the spectre of a nuclear war in Europe has been raised for the first time since the 1980s. Germany has called it Zeitenwende, the turning point. It will not just be Ukraine that is changed for ever by this war.But there is something specific about how war accelerates change. In The Deluge, his classic work on how society is changed by war, the British historian Arthur Marwick wrote: “War acts as a supreme challenge to, and test of, a country’s social and political institutions. War results not only in the destruction of inefficient institutions (such as the Tsarist regime in Russia), but also in the transformation of less efficient mechanisms into more efficient ones”.The west has surprised itself with its ability to respond to the misery inflicted on the people of Ukraine. All kinds of unimaginable images emerge. The German Bundestag cheered an extra €100bn (£82.4bn) on defence spending, followed by 100,000 people on the streets in protest at Putin. Matteo Salvini, the great Italian defender of Putin, bringing white tulips to the Ukrainian embassy. Liz Truss, the UK foreign secretary, attending a meeting of the EU foreign affairs ministers meeting. The Hungarian leader, Viktor Orbán, sharply criticised by human-rights groups and others over the years for his hardline border policies, sitting on a school bench opening his arms to refugees.It was just a fortnight ago that the German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, had appeared at the Munich security conference to caution the crisis was not the moment to try to execute an 180-degree turn on the decades-old German policy banning the sale of arms into conflict zones. Josep Borrell, the EU external affairs chief, batted away calls for Ukraine to join the EU, saying they already had an exceptional trade deal. He spoke about the “power of the EU’s language”, distancing himself from his own one-time claim that the EU must learn “the language of power”.The next day – Sunday – all the talk was of Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic initiative, and the concessions the French president had extracted from Vladimir Putin. Even on Wednesday, on the eve of the invasion, Baerbock gave an interview saying it was impossible for Germany to impose the strongest sanctions because of “the massive collateral damage” to Germany’s own economy. Putin could end up laughing at us, she warned.Yet by the following weekend, two days after the invasion began on Thursday, Germany’s coalition government had started that 180-degree course correction. Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his cabinet agreed to send Ukraine 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 anti-aircraft Stinger missiles, lifting restrictions on German weapons being sent to conflict zones by third parties in the process. The next day, Scholz told the Bundestag in his trademark matter-of-fact manner that he was injecting €100bn into German defence, but protecting other budgets, and defence spending would rise above 2% of German GDP. The MPs from government and the CDU gasped and cheered in equal measure. David McAllister, a leading figure in the German CDU and chair of the European parliament’s foreign affairs select committee, admits he nearly fell off his chair when he heard the plans.Russian forces attacked multiple targets in southern UkraineThe promised growth catapults Germany into becoming the third largest spender on defence globally, behind only the US and China. GlobalData forecasts an annual German defence budget of $83.5bn in 2024, equating to a 45% increase on 2021’s budget of $57.5bn. That is bigger than France and the UK. Overnight Germany became not just an economic but also a geopolitical powerhouse. Polls said 78% of Germans backed the decision.Matthias Matthijs, Europe senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, said: “It is quite astonishing how fast this government broke pretty well every taboo in postwar German foreign policy.”He attributes the scale of the change to a visit to Berlin on Sunday by the Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki. “I came to Berlin to shake the conscience of Germany,” Morawiecki said.Sophia Besch, from the Centre for European Reform, points out Scholz himself insisted he had not acted due to pressure from allies, but due to Germany changing its view of the threat posed by Putin. “The truth is the world did not change last Thursday,” she said. “Berlin for years has ignored the warnings that came from many of our allies and from Putin. We need to learn the lessons of how this could have happened and how we could have been so blind. We are leaving behind some of our old beliefs – that economic interdependence prevents conflict, but I am not sure we know yet with what we are replacing this belief.”Sergey Lagodinsky, a German Green MEP, argued Germany needs not only to spend more money, but to shift its mindset without becoming militaristic or interventionist. It needs to discuss how to adopt escalation, including military escalation, as leverage as part of its foreign policy toolbox. Foreign policy is not just a peace policy, Friedenspolitik in German, but also the ability to deal, manage and face conflict.But the new German coalition, faced by the need to extricate itself from Russian energy, may have to challenge other orthodoxies. The Green economics minister, Robert Habeck, does not rule out extending the use of coal-fired power plants. “This blind, naive, one-sided relationship of dependency on Russia for energy for decades is one of the biggest strategic mistakes of the past 20 years,” Lagodinsky said. “Now we are stuck. It represents a medium- and long-term problem”.But Putin’s recklessness is not just causing a revolution in Germany, but across Europe.Sweden abandoned its policy of not sending weapons to conflict zones, agreeing to send Bofors AT-4, a single-use anti-tank launcher, to Ukraine, plus medical supplies. In Finland, a bombshell poll showed 53% want Finland to join Nato. “This poll flipped everything on its head,” said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Moreover the poll showed that if voters were told that politicians said they backed the plan the support went up to two-thirds. “You could sense the president, Sauli Niinisto, realised the whole defence dynamic was changed.” Niinisto, seen as one of the best readers of what Putin is thinking is now rushing to hold urgent talks with Joe Biden in the White House.Ukraine war prompts European reappraisal of its energy supplies Read moreEven in Switzerland, leaders had to catch up with the public mood in the space of a weekend, and by the Monday an emergency cabinet promised to implement the entire EU sanctions package. The decision does not formally end a policy of neutrality that has survived two world wars, but there is now pressure to track down the many oligarchs that live in the country. There are also calls for an increase in the defence budgetThere has been a mini-revolution in Italy, too, where the prime minister, Mario Draghi, accused last week of seeking sanctions carve-outs to protect Italy’s dependence on Russian gas, has also found some mettle. He told parliament on Tuesday: “Yes, we want peace, but it is obvious that whoever amassed more than 60km of tanks near Kyiv does not want peace. We cannot turn our backs on Ukraine. Italy does not intend to look away.” He proposed an international public register of those with assets of more than €10m. In France, Macron looks likely to be re-elected comfortably next month as the rightwing candidates find themselves compromised by links to Putin they cannot deny.Eastern European countries, sometimes hostile to refugees, have instead had the most open arms. Poland has taken an unprecedented 600,000 people. Orbán the Hungarian leader photographed smiling at child refugees, vows “No one will be left uncared for.”The UK too has been experiencing unusually heavy traffic on the Road to Damascus. The Conservative government promises there will be no hiding place for oligarchs, publishing the delayed economic crime bill and seemingly unnerving Roman Abramovich into selling his stake in Chelsea football club. The endless denigration of Brussels has stopped. “The quality and intensity of the contacts between the EU and UK has been different to anything since before Brexit,” one EU official said. “We have restored a level of trust”.But it has been at the level of the European Union that the action has been quickest and most surprising, revealing Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU Commission and former German defence minister, as a powerful advocate for action. For the EU to release €500m from the European Peace Facility to provide equipment and supplies to the Ukrainian armed forces, including – for the first time – lethal equipment, was a first. EU military staff based in Poland are now coordinating military supplies into Ukraine. The EU as a military player is no longer just the stuff of seminars.Equally, the Commission in discussing its EU sanctions package acted with an unparalleled speed, and by consensus among the member states. Some EU sanctions packages take months to be agreed as one country or other exploiting the requirement for unanimity uses their veto power to pursue a national interest.That the UK, US and EU were able to coordinate an attack on the Russian central bank, freezing out some Russian banks from the global Swift bank payment system and implementing measures to prevent Russian banks and firms raising capital, showed a wholly unexpected level of resolve. This was a financial declaration of war – an attempt to turn Russia into a pariah economy – something never tried before, using methods never deployed before. It involved, for instance, some G20 central banks freezing the Russian central bank reserves held in their own jurisdiction, so depleting the war chest of reserves that Putin had accumulated to defend his economy if it came under western attack.All this is remarkable, indeed epoch-making, but not a cause for celebration. The institutions of liberal democracy may have belatedly shown resolve and unity, but in the here and now they are still losing. Keir Giles, from the Chatham House thinktank, is blunt: “Russia will want to present Zelenskiy with an appalling choice – whether to fight on at immense human cost and to the destruction of his country, infrastructure and economy or to submit to his terms in order that life can go on.“The decision to abandon Ukraine to that fate was made by the west when it gave the green light to Putin by reassuring him that no one would intervene. Nato does not have a strategy to win the war in Ukraine because Nato does not want to be in the war in Ukraine.”European politicians will also be worrying as the price of bread and energy soars in the months ahead whether voters are willing to make the sacrifice.the Lithuanian foreign minister told the UK foreign affairs select committee that half-measures would not do. “Putin has no boundaries to what instruments he is going to use and unleash against the Ukrainians”, Gabrielius Landsbergis, said, adding the west “had to go all-in”.He wants humanitarian corridors supported by no-fly zones. But the UK and the US have firmly rejected this since it would pit Nato pilots against Russian pilots. A Polish plan, backed by Borrell for Nato to provide Ukraine with Nato jets, training and bombs, got shot down in less than a day.The other remaining option is to end the final carve-outs in the sanctions regime. “The push is now for carpet sanctions to match the carpet bombing,” said Orysia Lutsevych from the Ukraine Forum, adding the UK, EU and the US are still buying more than €700m of oil, gas and other commodities that is the equivalent of 150 tanks a day that Russia can finance.That could be stopped either through an energy trade embargo, or by reversing the EU decision to let Gazprombank and Sberbank, the vehicles through which Europe pays for Russian oil and gas, stay in the Swift payment system. UK officials briefed on Wednesday they want to abolish the carve out given by the EU. If these two banks are thrown out of Swift that might immobilise Russian oil and gas exports, or lead to unspecified retaliation by Putin.The breadth and range of economic and financial measures taken against Moscow, not to mention growing sporting and cultural isolation, has been a humiliation for Putin, but it is also a risk for the west if the Russian leader sees no answer but total victory. “He is in a corner, but unfortunately with nuclear weapons, says Giles.The west has been transformed in a week, but the question this weekend is if it would be willing, forced by the chaos of events, to go even further. The charge facing the west after a week of war is the one made by George Orwell of Neville Chamberlain in 1938. Like almost everyone at the time, he “neither wanted to pay the price of peace nor that of war”.TopicsUkraineEuropeRussiaGermanyMilitaryArms tradeSwedenfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Swiss Approve Ban on Tobacco Ads

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      Health advocates have said that the legislation, which was approved in a referendum, was a significant step toward tightening the country’s loose tobacco regulations.ZURICH — Advertisements glamorizing cigarettes will soon be a thing of the past in Switzerland, after voters on Sunday overwhelmingly approved legislation forbidding tobacco companies from displaying them in public spaces.Health advocates have said that the legislation, which was approved in a referendum, was a significant step toward tightening the country’s loose tobacco regulations.“Many organizations have stepped up to the plate and advocated for a solution that prioritizes youth protection,” said Flavia Wasserfallen, a member of the Swiss National Council and a proponent of the initiative.Across much of the West, tobacco advertisements long ago fell out of favor, but they have lived on in this Alpine nation, with displays for cigarettes and e-cigarettes showing up on billboards, in movie theaters and at events like music festivals.But voters made it clear on Sunday that they were no longer interested in seeing them, and despite strong opposition from the tobacco industry and the government, the tougher regulations were approved by 56.6 percent of voters and received strong support from the country’s French- and Italian-speaking regions, despite having the country’s highest smoking rates.Steps have been taken in recent years to try to introduce tougher regulations on tobacco-related products in Switzerland. In 2015, the Federal Council, the country’s executive branch, proposed a Tobacco Products Act that would ban the sale of tobacco and related goods to minors as well as restrict advertising.Parliament eventually approved a weakened version of the bill, which forbade the sale of tobacco to those under 18 but let advertising continue mostly unimpeded.The most recent initiative was started by a group of more than 40 health organizations that formed in response to the weakening of the tobacco legislation. The revamped Tobacco Products Act, which includes the advertising-related provisions that voters approved on Sunday, is expected to come into effect in 2023.“The majority of our country has decided to correct Parliament’s decision on the Tobacco Products Act,” Hans Stöckli, who serves as the president of the committee behind the initiative, said on Sunday. Mr. Stöckli described the result as “a historic milestone” and as “a necessary step” toward improved tobacco regulation.Opponents of the measure called the tighter restrictions extreme. And while they agreed that tobacco should be age-restricted, they said that the new rules amounted to a de facto ban on a legal product because children could potentially be exposed to advertisements anywhere.Switzerland has long had a close relationship with the tobacco industry. Philip Morris and Japan Tobacco International have their international headquarters in the country, and British American Tobacco also has a strong presence.The industry employs about 4,500 people in Switzerland, according to the government, including in the production of high-tar cigarettes that are illegal to produce or sell in the European Union. Cigarettes rank with chocolate and cheese as some of the country’s leading exports.Even after the new rules take effect, Switzerland will continue to have more liberal tobacco regulations than many other countries. And it will also still not fulfill all of the requirements needed to ratify the World Health Organization’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, an international response to combating the tobacco epidemic, despite signing it in 2004. The United States has also not ratified the convention.Alain Berset, Switzerland’s vice president, who also serves as the country’s health minister, had opposed the initiative before the vote. But at a news conference on Sunday, he acknowledged that Swiss voters had spoken, and said that the government would move forward with the new regulations.“The Federal Council will now tackle the implementation of the initiative,” Mr. Berset said.The Tobacco Products Act was not the only issue on the ballot on Sunday. In a move that people feared could have cut Switzerland off from global medical progress, voters shot down a proposed ban on all human and animal experiments in the country.Voters also decided against providing Swiss media outlets with increased financial support, by rejecting a government proposal to extend subsidies to online media as well as to regional radio and television stations.A government-approved amendment to the federal stamp duties act that would have made it cheaper for companies to raise new capital was also rejected, with opponents saying it would have mainly benefited large companies. More

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      Swiss Voters Reject Proposal to Ban Synthetic Pesticides

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      The referendum would have barred the use of the synthetic pesticides in farms and gardens. ZURICH — Voters in Switzerland on Sunday overwhelmingly rejected a measure that would have banned the use of artificial pesticides in Switzerland, preventing their use in farms and gardens, and prohibited the import of produce and products made using them.The rejection of the measure, which had enjoyed considerable support in recent months, reflected strong opposition from the Swiss farming sector and the government, which said approval would have meant lower farm production and higher food prices. But public support for curtailing pesticides also prompted the government to come up with a counterproposal that would halve the risks associated with the use of pesticides within six years.The initiative had been proposed by Future 3, a citizens group that is pushing for a pesticide-free Switzerland. The group’s spokesman, Dominik Waser, said the main motivation was protecting the health of people and the environment. “Pesticides have a huge influence on our health and it can’t carry on like this,” he said. While the long-term impact of the chemicals is not yet fully known, studies have suggested links between synthetic pesticides and a range of health issues including Parkinson’s and infertility.Mr. Waser also cited possible ecological issues connected to the spraying of synthetic pesticides.While a significant portion of organic farmers were in favor of the initiative, the majority of farmers operating the 50,000 farms in Switzerland strongly opposed it. Hay bales in a field in Switzerland.Denis Balibouse/ReutersMartin Rufer, the director of the Swiss Farmers Association, said a total ban on synthetic pesticides would have been “unrealistic” and have major consequences for the agricultural sector and the country. He said farmers wanted to use less pesticides, but that there were not enough viable alternatives to stop completely.Mr. Rufer predicted that farm production would have slumped by 20 percent to 30 percent had the measure passed, forcing the alpine nation to import more food to make up for the difference. “Food consumption would stay the same,” he said.David Jacobsen is one Swiss farmer who has been pushing for a pesticide ban.“We don’t spray away our problems,” said Mr. Jacobsen, standing next to a green field of wheat sprinkled with poppies at his 125-hectare farm, Gut Rheinau, near Zurich. His farm, which he co-owns, has been producing organic grains, vegetables and fruits without the use of synthetic pesticides for more than 20 years. Using the chemicals, he said, “would decrease our biodiversity and make us dependent because if you use synthetic pesticides once, you have to keep using them.”Instead, Mr. Jacobsen and his colleagues use crop varieties more resistant to insects and fungi, and have developed ways of growing to increase their yield naturally. “We don’t spray away our problems,” said David Jacobsen, a farmer who has been pushing for a pesticide ban.Noele Illien for The New York TimesThe Swiss government had urged voters to reject the proposal, fearing that a decrease in agricultural output would push up food prices. It also warned that a full ban would cause more people to cross the border to buy groceries in neighboring countries.Guy Parmelin, the president of Switzerland and a former grain farmer and wine grower, said the way pesticides were being used in Switzerland had greatly changed in recent years. “More and more so-called conventional farmers are using products authorized in organic farming,” he said.Mr. Parmelin said sales of synthetic pesticides in Switzerland were decreasing as a result of alternatives like mechanical weeding or the implementation of more sustainable crops.The initiative was also opposed by the nation’s chocolate industry, which relies heavily on imported ingredients, such as cacao. “We agree with the initiative’s core aim to reduce the use of pesticides,” said Urs Furrer, the director of the Swiss Chocolate Manufacturers Association, Chocosuisse.But Mr. Furrer said the association felt the government counterproposal — to halve the risks associated with the use of synthetic pesticides by 2027 — was a more realistic approach.Had the referendum been approved, Mr. Furrer said the price of Swiss chocolate, which would by default have become organic, would have increased and that Switzerland’s share of the global chocolate market would shrink. “The market for organic chocolate is too small,” he said. More

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      What Led to Europe’s Vaccine Disaster?

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      In late December 2020, it was announced that Switzerland would start its COVID-19 vaccination campaign. Eligible persons were asked to make an appointment. Those of a particular age with certain health risks — such as diabetes, high blood pressure and allergies — were encouraged to register.

      Given my age and the fact that I suffer from pollen allergies in the spring, I filled out an online form and was informed I was eligible for a jab. So, I went through to the registration page only to be told that there were no appointments available. Two months have since passed and there are still no openings. The way things are going, I probably won’t get vaccinated before the end of summer — or perhaps by fall or Christmas.

      “Unacceptably Slow”

      Switzerland is not alone. The pace of vaccination is proceeding at a snail’s pace throughout the European Union. Just weeks ago, Hans Kluge, the World Health Organization’s director for Europe, vented his frustration, charging that the vaccine rollout in Europe was “unacceptably slow.” Germany is a key example. By the first week of April, 13% of the population had received the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 5.6% had received the second dose. In comparison, around the same time, more than a third of the US adult population had received at least one dose and 20% were fully vaccinated. In the UK, which is no longer a member of the European Union, the vaccination rate was even higher.

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      In the face of heavy criticism for its alleged mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, Thierry Breton, the EU’s internal market commissioner, speaking on behalf of the union, went on the offensive. On French television, he defended the European Commission’s vaccine procurement strategy and affirmed that Europe had the capacity to deliver 300 to 350 million doses by the end of June. He also claimed that Europe would be able to attain “collective immunity” by July 14, France’s national day.  

      France’s premier conservative daily Le Figaro was not the least impressed. In a biting response, it characterized the EU’s vaccine procurement strategy as nothing short of a “fiasco” and frontally attacked Breton and, with him, the European Commission. Not only had Breton refused to admit “the slightest error,” continuing instead to defend his vaccine policy, but he also took French citizens for fools. Clearly, Breton’s statements had hit a raw nerve, at least in France.

      Why Is Europe Behind?

      There are a number of reasons why the European Union is trailing the US and the UK. One of the most important ones is the union itself. Its sheer size allowed the EU initially to negotiate lower prices for vaccines by buying in bulk for all 27 member states. Reducing costs, however, came at a heavy price in the form of the slow delivery of the vaccines. In addition, the European Commission had to get the green light from EU member states before it could arrive at a decision over which vaccines to purchase. As a result, the EU “ordered too few vaccines too late,” wrote Guntram Wolff, director of the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. Hesitation on the part of member states, given “the novelty of the technological approach,” led to delays in authorizing the leading vaccines, including the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine that had been developed in Germany.   

      According to Le Canard Enchainé, a French weekly known for its investigative journalism, the UK ordered the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in late July 2020; the EU did so in November. The same held true for Moderna. The EU was so late that by mid-November, Stephane Bancel, the CEO of Moderna, warned that if the EU continued “dragging out negotiations to buy its promising Covid-19 vaccine,” deliveries would “slow down” since nations that had already signed agreements would get priority.

      Add to that what Spain’s premier daily El Pais has called the “AstraZeneca fiasco.” The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was supposed “to power the bulk of the continent’s inoculation campaign,” according to El Pais. Instead, holdups and delays in the distribution of the vaccine, together with pauses in the vaccination campaign following reports about suspected side-effects from the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab — rare cases of blood clots — seriously jeopardized the EU’s strategy. In Germany, at the end of March, it was decided that AstraZeneca would no longer be administered to people under the age of 60. Denmark has ceased administering the vaccine completely.

      By now, the fallout of a strategy that was more concerned with saving money than potentially saving lives is obvious to all — as is the damage done to the image of the European Union. As Mark Leonard, the director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, recently put it, the EU’s vaccine crisis “has been catastrophic for the reputation of the European Union.” Ironically enough, this is the very same Leonard who, in late December, celebrated “the return of faith in government.” The pandemic, he stated, had “reminded everyone just how valuable competent public administration can be.” Three months later, his optimism — “five cheers for 2021,” to use his words — had turned into gloom and doom. And for good reason, given the unfolding of the full extent of the vaccination disaster.

      The results of a recent survey are stark. In early March, around 40% of respondents in France, Germany and Italy thought the pandemic had weakened the “case for the EU.” When asked whether the EU had helped their country to confront the pandemic, a third of respondents in France and Italy and more than half in Germany answered “no.” At the same time, however, member states have not fared much better. In response to the question of whether their country was taking the right measures to combat COVID-19, almost 60% of French respondents, nearly half of Germans and more than 40% of Italians answered in the negative.

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      This is the crux of the matter. As time has passed and vaccines have started to be delivered, it has become increasingly difficult for individual countries to blame the European Union for their own failures and shortcomings in securing and delivering the vaccine to their populations — or for the reluctance of citizens to get vaccinated.

      In late March, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control published a report on the vaccine rollout in the EU. By far, the most important challenge facing most member states was the limited supply of vaccines and frequent changes in the timing of deliveries from suppliers, “which can be unpredictable and can significantly affect the planning and efficiency of the rollout.” Other challenges included problems with logistics, limited personnel to administer the vaccines, shortage of equipment such as syringes and special needles, and issues related to communication such as information about the vaccine and scheduling appointments.

      Is the EU Goal Realistic?

      Under the circumstances, the EU’s stated goal of having at least 70% of the population vaccinated by the summer appears to be an increasingly distant prospect. Or perhaps not: It depends on whether individual countries — particularly France, Germany, Italy and Spain — will get their act together and move to “warp speed.”

      Some countries appear to be prepared to do so. In Spain, health authorities expect a significant acceleration in the vaccination campaign over the coming weeks. There is growing confidence that the country will meet the 70% mark by the start of summer. Even in Germany, whose blundering performance during the past several weeks made international headlines, experts are optimistic that the country will reach the target.

      More often than not, the problem is not necessarily the supply of vaccines, but difficulties in getting target groups vaccinated. This is, at least in part, a result of communication infrastructure, which in some cases are far behind the technological frontier. Take the case of Switzerland, which is not a member of the EU. In late March, Geneva’s Le Temps alerted its readers that when it comes to the digitalization of its health system, Switzerland was in the “Middle Ages.” Instead of using the internet, Swiss health authorities sent faxes to communicate the number of new infections. When it comes to digitalization, the author noted, Switzerland, which prided itself as the world champion in innovation, was “full of fear” if not outright “recalcitrant” to adopt new technologies. The consequences were fatal not only with regard to dealing with the pandemic, but also with respect to the country’s international competitiveness.

      The situation has not been any different in Germany. Earlier this year, when the vaccination campaign got going, public authorities sought to inform the most vulnerable groups — those older than 80 — that they could get vaccinated. Yet they had no way of finding out who was in that age group. So, they guessed based on first names. Katharina, yes; Angelique, no. This is German efficiency in 2021. Or, as a leading German business magazine put it, if “your name is Fritz or Adolf, you will (perhaps) be vaccinated.” And this in Western Europe’s biggest economy.

      Better Preparation for Crises

      The COVID-19 pandemic has not only brutally exposed Europe’s unpreparedness to confront a major crisis, but it has also shown the parochial state of mind of significant parts of the European population.  Much has been written over the past year about American science skepticism and conspiracy theories, held partly responsible for the toll that COVID-19 has taken on the US population. Yet Europeans are hardly any better. Not only have parts of the European population eagerly adopted even the craziest conspiracy theories, such as QAnon, but they have also shown high levels of skepticism with respect to COVID-19 vaccines, despite scientific assurances of their efficacy and safety.

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      Again, take the case of Switzerland. In December 2020, only around 56% of the population indicated they would get vaccinated. The rest expressed great reservation, despite the fact that the survey stated that the vaccine was deemed safe and effective. In the meantime, as the pandemic has continued with no end in sight, there are indications that the mood has changed. In Germany, only two-thirds of respondents indicated they would get vaccinated when asked in June 2020. By the end of March this year, that number had increased to over 70%. These developments are encouraging. 

      Not only have most European countries finally managed to live up to the challenge, but their populations appear to have realized that COVID-19 is worse than the flu, that the pandemic poses a fundamental threat to life as we know it, and that the only way to get back to “normality is to get vaccinated — not only for oneself, but also for everybody else. In the old days, this was called “civic culture.” With the rise of populism in advanced liberal democracies, civic culture more often than not has gone out the window, replaced by a culture centered upon “me, me, me.”

      Yet the fact is that this pandemic is only the beginning. The next big challenge is confronting climate change. It is to be hoped that Europeans will be better prepared than they have while confronting the coronavirus.

      The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy. More