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    Oil Markets Shrug Off Overthrow of Syria’s al-Assad

    Oil markets have shown little reaction to the collapse of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, as traders most likely calculated that Syria was only a modest producer and that events there did not immediately threaten exports from the wider region.In trading on Monday, Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, rose about 1 percent, to $71.80 a barrel.Syria has modest oil reserves, and President-elect Donald J. Trump said during his first presidency that they should be secured, but markets were largely shrugging off the risk that conflict in the Middle East could lead to disruption of supplies. There are about 900 U.S. troops in Syria.In more than a year since Hamas-led militants stormed into Israel from Gaza, there has been little interruption to flows of oil and natural gas, beyond rerouting tanker traffic to avoid attacks by Houthi fighters in Yemen.The markets have instead focused on the tepid growth of global demand that can probably be met by new supplies from the United States, Brazil, Canada and other producers not bound by the agreements of the OPEC Plus cartel.On Thursday, OPEC Plus pushed back plans to increase output to at least the second quarter of next year, the third delay in recent months.Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, a research firm, said, “There’s still a residual view that the oil market will be oversupplied next year.” He added that traders were worried that Mr. Trump’s policies would push oil prices lower “whether due to higher U.S. production or tariffs disrupting economic activity.”Mr. Bronze said he thought that those theories would prove incorrect, but “the market will have to see it to believe it.”Syria is in the neighborhood of large oil producers such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, but its own production has been sharply curtailed by a decade of civil war.In 2023, Syria produced 40,000 barrels of oil a day — a trickle relative to major oil producers, according to the Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute, a London-based nonprofit.In the early 2000s, Syria pumped more than 600,000 barrels a day, comparable to midsize producers like Azerbaijan or Egypt. That performance gives hope that with a stable political environment and improved management, oil sales could be an important source of revenue for a future Syrian government. More

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    How Syria’s Rebels Took Damascus, Captured on Video

    A brazen nighttime prison release. Presidential posters set on fire. Children playing in the halls of a building once controlled by the former regime.The fall of Damascus, Syria’s capital, happened quickly and dramatically, and much of what we know about the end of Bashar al-Assad’s reign in the country was captured on people’s phones for the world to see. Footage began emerging on social media at 4 a.m. local time on Sunday. It showed the rapid advance of a rebel army that took control of Damascus in just a few hours.Despite reports that government forces were preparing to defend the capital, the Syrian army was nowhere to be found. One video from Damascus showed a military checkpoint that had been abandoned. Inside, what looked like army uniforms littered the floor of the building, which was plastered with large posters of Mr. al-Assad.Associated PressOn the northern outskirts of the city, rebel forces moved swiftly to take control of Sednaya prison, a notorious government complex known for torturing and executing political prisoners. Videos showed groups of men walking through city streets at night, reportedly after being freed from the prison.Other videos posted online showed scenes of joy and disbelief as dozens of people were released from the prison complex. On social media, Syrians posted photos of loved ones who had been detained at the prison, hoping someone might identify them and confirm that they were free.Operations Room to Conquer Damascus, via ReutersAs news began to circulate that the rebels had arrived in the capital, residents began streaming into Umayyad Square in central Damascus. Men gathered around a tank and climbed on top of it, raising their hands in the air as a group of onlookers clapped and played music. The square was soon packed with dozens of cars, and sounds of celebratory gunfire filled the air.By dawn, many were speculating that Syria’s president had fled the country. Crowds outside the Dar al-Assad Center for Culture and Arts stomped on burning images of Mr. al-Assad and tried to topple a statue of his father, Hafez al-Assad. Unsuccessful in taking down the statue, they left a trash can on its head.Hours later, inside Mr. al-Assad’s former seat of power, families wandered through the presidential palace as if they were visiting a museum, smiling and posing for photographs in the halls. Some even collected furniture and dishes as souvenirs.Associated PressBy Sunday afternoon, videos shared on social media showed the rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani entering the Umayyad mosque in Damascus. Masked security guards escorted him through the crowd as residents battled to try to get a photo with him.In a statement, Mr. al-Jolani described the rebel takeover as a victory for the entire nation.“The future is ours,” he said. More

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    With Syria in Flux, Turkish Forces Attack U.S.-Backed Forces

    The Turkish military fired on U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in northern Syria this weekend, a war monitoring group and a spokesman for the Kurdish group said on Sunday, illuminating the tangle of competing interests and alliances in Syria in the wake of the government’s collapse.Fighting erupted on Saturday in Manbij, a Kurdish-controlled city near Syria’s border with Turkey, between rebel groups, one backed by the United States and the other by Turkey. At least 22 members of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces were killed in and around Manbij, and 40 others were wounded, according to the Kurdish group.The clashes preceded a call on Sunday between Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and his Turkish counterpart, Defense Minister Yasar Guler.The other fighters, the Syrian National Army, were supported in their assault of Manbij by Turkish air power, including warplanes, according to a spokesmen for the Syrian Democratic Forces. And a Turkish “kamikaze drone” exploded at a Kurdish military base on Saturday, according to the monitoring group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.Turkey and the United States are allies, sworn to protect each other as members of the NATO alliance. Though both countries celebrated Sunday’s ouster of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, their interests diverge over support for the Kurds in northern Syria, far from Damascus, the capital.In their call on Sunday, Mr. Austin and Mr. Guler agreed that coordination was necessary “to prevent further escalation of an already volatile situation, as well as to avoid any risk to U.S. forces and partners,” according a readout of the conversation released by the Pentagon. The United States also acknowledged Turkey’s “legitimate security concerns.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Stunned Iranian Officials Try to Distance Their Country From Assad

    Iranians watched in astonishment over the weekend as the reign of their nation’s longtime political and military ally, Bashar al-Assad, came to a crashing end. By Sunday, the reckoning had arrived as officials and pundits recognized that Iran was taken by surprise, and they hurried to distance Iran from a tyrant the country had supported in maintaining power.Iranian leaders and military commanders said in public statements that it was up to Syrians to decide what kind of government should replace Mr. al-Assad, who resigned and fled Syria on Sunday after rebel forces stormed the country’s capital.“It is the Syrian people who must decide on the future of their country and its political and governmental system,” said President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran in a meeting with his cabinet on Sunday, according to state media outlets. He added that Syrians must be free to do so without violence and foreign meddling.It was yet another remarkable turnabout for Iran after withdrawing its military forces on Friday when the collapse of Mr. al-Assad’s government became inevitable.State television channels candidly discussed Iran’s policies, with officials and pundits admitting that Iran had misjudged the regional dynamics and officials had overlooked Mr. al-Assad’s unpopularity among Syrians, which also reflected Iran’s lack of support there.Hatef Salehi, an analyst who supports Iran’s government, said in a live town hall discussion on the audio chat app Clubhouse that “the most important lesson of Syria for the Islamic Republic is that no government can last without the support of the people.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    As Syrian Government Loses Control, the Skies Above Go Quiet

    For more than a decade of civil war, Syrians in rebel-held areas craned their necks to look at the sky — listening and fearing the sounds of an airplane engine or the whirring blades of a helicopter.Those sounds meant imminent danger.People scrambled in every direction. Mothers futilely tried to shield their children. After the strikes, rescue workers and ordinary Syrians rushed to tend to the wounded and bury the dead.The planes and helicopters — which dropped terrifyingly destructive barrel bombs filled with TNT and shrapnel — instilled terror. Only when the government captured an area did the airstrikes stop. But in the northwest, which remained a rebel stronghold, they continued until days ago.On Sunday morning, for the first time in years, people who lived in fear of those bombs woke to silence in the skies.“Always, that was our life during all those years,” said Hamid Qutaneh, a member of the White Helmets rescue group. He and the other members of the rescue team spent more than a decade responding to the aftermath of airstrikes by Syrian and Russian warplanes that were key to keeping President Bashar al-Assad in power.Mr. Qutaneh, 30, a father of two, grew up in the northwest city of Khan Sheikhoun, which was hit by chemical weapons in 2017.Warnings of airstrikes came in brief phrases or in one word: “The warplane has taken off.” “The warplane is flying overhead.” “Airstrike.”Mr. Qutaneh’s own home in Khan Sheikhoun was destroyed in one of those strikes.“You can’t imagine the joy today,” he said, adding that people for the first time were gathered in the streets in large crowds, no longer fearful that they could be targeted from the skies. “What happened is the beginning of the road to justice.”More than 100,000 Syrians have been killed from airstrikes alone, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights, a watchdog group.“We are living a happiness that can’t be described,” Ramez Abu Farhan, 41, from the central city of Homs said after he returned home from celebrating in the city’s main square. “There is safety, there isn’t shelling; there aren’t airstrikes; there are no planes, and we are hopeful for the future.”The city had not been hit with airstrikes for years after the Assad regime regained control of it. But for years, he said, “we saw the shelling and the destruction.”Even when planes weren’t carrying out airstrikes on his neighborhood, he said, he could hear them flying overhead, headed to drop their bombs in the countryside. More

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    Who is Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, Leader of Syrian Rebel Offensive?

    After attracting little notice for years, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani spearheaded a stunning lightning offensive that led to the fall of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria after over 13 years of brutal civil war.Mr. al-Jolani, 42, is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group once linked to Al Qaeda that has controlled most of Idlib Province, in northwestern Syria, for years during a long stalemate in the conflict.“By far, he’s the most important player on the ground in Syria,” said Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst of jihad and modern conflict at the International Crisis Group, who has met Mr. al-Jolani several times in the past five years.In late November, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched the most significant challenge to Mr. al-Assad’s rule in a decade, sweeping through Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, before charging south, capturing territory across several provinces without facing much resistance.By Sunday, rebels were celebrating in Syria’s capital, Damascus, and declared it free of Mr. al-Assad. Syria’s longtime leader had left the country after holding talks with “several parties of the armed conflict,” according to Russia’s Foreign Ministry. It did not say where Mr. al-Assad might be.Born Ahmed Hussein al-Shara in Saudi Arabia, Mr. al-Jolani is the child of Syrian exiles, according to Arab media reports. In the late 1980s, his family moved back to Syria, and in 2003, he went to neighboring Iraq to join Al Qaeda and fight the U.S. occupation.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Spy Agencies Monitor Chemical Weapons Storage Sites, Fearing Use in Syria

    U.S. intelligence agencies are closely monitoring suspected chemical weapons storage sites in Syria, looking for indications that forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad are preparing to employ them against the collection of rebel groups fighting to depose him, officials said Saturday.The agencies assess that Mr. al-Assad’s forces have maintained limited stockpiles of chemical weapons, including munitions loaded with the nerve agent sarin, and there is growing concern that the government could employ them as part of a last-ditch effort to prevent rebels from seizing the capital, Damascus, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.Mr. al-Assad’s government has repeatedly used chemical weapons, including nerve agents and chlorine gas, against rebels and his own people during the 13-year civil war, according to assessments by human rights monitors, the United States and others.Key Arab allies of the United States want to keep Mr. al-Assad in power because they fear that if the collection of rebel groups topples the government in Damascus, the country could become a more dangerous haven for terrorism. While many of those allies have opposed Mr. al-Assad in the past, they see him as a known quantity and better than the rebel-led alternative, a senior Biden administration official said.Aides to President Biden have made clear in recent days that the United States has no intention of intervening to affect the war’s outcome, either in support of the rebels or Mr. al-Assad.That message was echoed on Saturday by President-elect Donald J. Trump, who wrote in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social, “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How to Understand Syria’s Rapidly Changing Civil War

    Advances by a coalition of opposition groups have abruptly changed the landscape of Syria’s civil war after a long stalemate. Here’s a closer look at where things stand.Rebel groups fighting to depose President Bashar al-Assad of Syria battled regime forces on the outskirts of the strategic city of Homs on Saturday as they pushed toward the capital, Damascus, according to the rebels and a war monitoring group.Advances by a coalition of opposition groups headed by the Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have abruptly changed the landscape of Syria’s civil war after a long stalemate. Their lightning offensive poses the most direct challenge to Mr. Assad’s power in years and is raising fears of chaos if his authoritarian government loses control over large swaths of the country.The Syrian civil war started 13 years ago, beginning during the Arab Spring and escalating into a bloody, multifaceted conflict involving domestic opposition groups, extremist factions and international powers including the United States, Iran and Russia. More than 500,000 Syrians have died, and millions more have fled their homes.Here’s a guide to understanding the conflict, even as it changes rapidly.Here’s what you need to know:What is the situation on the ground?Who is fighting?What about foreign powers?What would a rebel victory mean?An enduring conflictWhat is the situation on the ground?The War in Syria Has a New Map. Again.A surprise advance by Syria’s rebels has redrawn a conflict marked for more than a decade by unusual, shifting alliances.In just over a week, Syrian rebel forces have seized much of Syria’s northwest from the government in a fast-moving attack, upending the stalemate in the civil war. After capturing most of the major city of Aleppo last week, the rebels drove government troops from the western city of Hama on Thursday. They are now threatening the strategic city of Homs, and edging closer to the capital, Damascus.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More