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      Your Tuesday Briefing: A Runoff in Turkey

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      Also, Thailand’s opposition parties agreed to form a coalition.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has concentrated power in his own hands over the past two decades.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesTurkey’s election heads to a runoffPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to secure a first-round victory in Turkey’s presidential election and will now face a runoff on May 28. Still, he seems well positioned to win another five-year term.Preliminary results showed that Erdogan won 49.5 percent of the votes on Sunday, ahead of his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who got 44.9 percent. The right-wing supporters of a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who was knocked out of the race, are more likely to vote for Erdogan in the runoff, increasing his chances of winning.Erdogan’s party and its allies also maintained a commanding majority in Parliament during elections for those seats, which were also held on Sunday. That probably further increases Erdogan’s ability to be re-elected.But the fact that Erdogan could not win a majority — even after he tilted the playing field to his advantage by using state resources for his campaign and relying on sympathetic media — indicates that some voters are frustrated with his financial management and consolidation of power.Lost ground: Preliminary results showed that, compared with the 2018 presidential election, almost every part of the country shifted against Erdogan. Some of the sharpest rebukes came from the provinces around Turkey’s two largest cities, Istanbul and Ankara.Analysis: Experts described the results as just the latest example of Erdogan’s formidable survival skills.Pita Limjaroenrat, in the white shirt, greeted supporters in Bangkok yesterday.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockThai opposition agrees to form coalitionThailand’s two opposition parties said yesterday that they would work together to form a coalition government after they won a clear majority in the general election over the weekend. But it remains unclear if the junta will hand over power easily.Pita Limjaroenrat, the head of the progressive Move Forward Party, led the effort to build a coalition and could become prime minister. He said he was not concerned about opposition from the military-appointed Senate, which could still block his nomination. “I don’t think the people of Thailand would allow that to happen,” he said.But if history is any indicator, the military is unlikely to relinquish power quickly. Generals rewrote the Constitution in 2017 to stack the Senate with allies and ensure that the military would determine the next prime minister. Analysts said any effort to block Pita from leading the country would most likely set off protests.Quotable: “Right now, many people have Pita as their new prime minister in their minds,” an expert said. “If Pita cannot be prime minister, and Move Forward cannot form the government, it will break the people’s hearts. And it will be very, very bad.”Several small Chinese mining companies have sought in recent years to mine gold from the Central African Republic.ReutersChinese workers face threats abroadIn March, a group of gunmen stormed a remote mine in the Central African Republic and killed nine Chinese workers there. The attack, and others like it, raise questions about China’s ability to protect its citizens overseas.The C.A.R. government blamed a rebel group for the attack; the rebels blamed Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, which, in turn, accused the rebels. No side has presented evidence. Only four government soldiers were protecting the site, though more than a dozen were supposed to have been there, a diplomat said. All four survived.The murkiness has underscored a growing security challenge facing Beijing as Chinese companies expand. Often, they do business in the middle of conflict zones with limited protection. Chinese security frequently relies on a patchwork of local military personnel, mercenaries and private firms to protect Chinese workers.Quotable: “China is on thin ice in the sense that they’re entering some of the most poorly governed places in the world and supercharging conflicts,” an expert in Chinese development finance said. “And every time an attack happens, it angers the Chinese public and forces China to reconsider this light-touch, hands-off approach.”THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificPeople in Rohingya refugee camps were hit particularly hard by the storm.Sai Aung Main/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesHundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees are homeless after Cyclone Mocha hit Myanmar and Bangladesh.China sentenced a 78-year-old U.S. citizen to life in prison for espionage.One of Japan’s top entertainment production companies issued an apology over sexual assault claims against its late founder.Cambodia’s ruling party is poised to run virtually unopposed in July after the election commission disqualified the main opposition party, Reuters reports.Around the WorldFor the first time, the U.N. commemorated the mass displacement of Palestinians in the wars surrounding the creation of Israel 75 years ago.The E.U. approved Microsoft’s $69 billion takeover of Activision Blizzard, after U.S. and British regulators both moved to block the deal.Despite fears of a sudden stampede at the U.S.-Mexico border after a pandemic-era policy ended, the area remained relatively quiet.Vice Media filed for bankruptcy. A group of lenders is in a position to acquire the company.The War in UkrainePrime Minister Rishi Sunak met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in England yesterday.Pool photo by Carl CourtBritain promised a large package of missiles and attack drones to Ukraine as President Volodymyr Zelensky paid a visit.Ukraine made further advances around Bakhmut, the country’s deputy defense minister said.Ukrainians are writing angry messages to Russia on the sides of rockets, mortar shells and exploding drones.A Morning ReadBalendra Shah, who is popularly known as Balen Shah, greeting constituents.Saumya Khandelwal for The New York TimesBefore he became the mayor of Kathmandu, Balendra Shah was a rap star who pursued a degree in engineering. His electoral success has inspired a wave of young candidates across Nepal to take on a political class perceived as corrupt and incompetent, and dominated by men in their late 60s and 70s who have held office for decades.ARTS AND IDEASPatricia Moreira/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesA Cannes previewFor cinephiles, there is no holier pilgrimage than the Cannes Film Festival, which begins today.It is a place where great auteurs have been canonized, like Martin Scorsese, who returns this year with a new feature, “Killers of the Flower Moon,” and Wes Anderson, who will present his ensemble comedy “Asteroid City.” These are the festival’s most anticipated premieres.Opening the festival is the period drama “Jeanne du Barry,” starring Johnny Depp as King Louis XV of France. But movies aren’t the only thing to watch during Cannes. The film festival will also make red carpet waves.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookArmando Rafael for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.Have an air fryer? Make this flavorful chicken breast.What to ReadIn Emma Cline’s latest, “The Guest,” the heroine is a call girl on the run.What to Watch“Monica” is about a transgender woman who is introduced as a stranger to care for her dying mother.What to PlayI wrote about the global sports craze that is padel.Mental HealthThere are ways to ease postpartum depression.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Tear to pieces (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you tomorrow. — AmeliaP.S. Our publisher, A.G. Sulzberger, wrote about independence as an essential journalistic value in Columbia Journalism Review.“The Daily” is about banned spyware.Send us your feedback at briefing@nytimes.com. Thanks for writing. More

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      Opposition Forms New Coalition in Thailand After Election

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      Thais voted overwhelmingly for change on Sunday, but the military-appointed Senate could still block the opposition’s nomination for prime minister.The two opposition parties that won the largest share of the vote in Thailand’s general election over the weekend said on Monday that they had agreed to form a coalition government. It remained unclear, however, whether the ruling junta would hand over power easily.The results of the election were a stinging rebuke to the country’s military leaders, who have governed Thailand since seizing power in a coup in 2014. Although Thailand is a nation where coups are not uncommon, it had never been under military rule for so long.Many voters, disillusioned with the never-ending cycle of putsches and protests, used the election on Sunday to demonstrate overwhelmingly that they wanted change.“People have been through enough of a lost decade,” Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the progressive Move Forward Party, told reporters on Monday. “Today is a new day.”The Move Forward Party — which has called for an overhaul of the military and amending a strict law that criminalizes criticism of the Thai monarchy — secured 151 seats out of the 500-member House of Representatives. The result defied opinion polls, which had predicted a strong victory for Pheu Thai, the country’s largest opposition party, founded by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.Pheu Thai won 141 seats, which, like Move Forward, was short of a clear majority. The two parties announced during separate news conferences on Monday that they had agreed to work together to form a government.Mr. Pita has led the effort to build the coalition. He said that five parties, including Pheu Thai, had already joined him, boosting the opposition’s control over Parliament to 309 out of 500 seats. “It’s safe to assume that we have secured a majority in forming a government,” Mr. Pita said on Monday.Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who seized power in the 2014 coup, said on Sunday that he “has respect for the democratic process and the election results.” His party, United Thai Nation, won only 36 seats.Prayut Chan-ocha, Thailand’s current prime minister and the United Thai Nation Party’s candidate, said he “has respect for the democratic process and the election results.”Lillian Suwanrumpha/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Pita’s quick work in assembling a coalition lowered some uncertainty around what many Thais have described as the most consequential election of their lifetimes. But it was still unclear if he would be allowed to lead the country as prime minister.The military-appointed Senate, which has the power to select the prime minister through a joint vote in parliament, may still block Mr. Pita from the position.Many analysts questioned whether the Senate would tolerate any election results that threaten the status quo. Move Forward has targeted institutions and policies once considered sacrosanct in Thai society, including abolishing mandatory military conscription and reducing the punishments for the law that protects the monarchy from criticism.With Pheu Thai in government, it could effectively place the party’s founder and one of the military’s top rivals, Mr. Thaksin, back at the center of the country’s politics. The king must also endorse the appointment of prime minister.At a news conference, Mr. Pita said he was not concerned about opposition from the Senate. “With the consensus that came out of the election, it would be quite a hefty price to pay for someone who’s thinking of abolishing the election results or forming a minority government,” he said. “And I don’t think the people of Thailand would allow that to happen.”But if history is any indicator, the military, which has dominated Thai politics for decades, is unlikely to relinquish power quickly. In addition to engineering a dozen coups within a century, Thai generals rewrote the Constitution in 2017 to stack the Senate with allies and ensure that the military would have the power to determine the country’s prime minister.Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Srettha Thavisin, Pheu Thai Party candidates for prime minister, after a news conference on Monday. Their party opted to form a coalition with the Move Forward Party.Lauren Decicca/Getty ImagesGregory Raymond, a lecturer researching Southeast Asian politics at the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, said there was still a possibility that the two military proxy parties — United Thai Nation and Palang Pracharath — could cobble together enough seats to mount their own claim to government. “That is still, in my mind, the last scenario. It would be highly undemocratic but can’t be ruled out at this point,” Mr. Raymond said.Analysts warned that the Senate choosing to block Mr. Pita’s appointment would likely galvanize protests in Thailand, plunging the country into more political turmoil.“I think the reaction will be much more dangerous than four years ago,” said Purawich Watanasukh, a research fellow at King Prajadhipok’s Institute in Thailand, referring to the nation’s previous election. “Right now, many people have Pita as their new prime minister in their minds. If Pita cannot be prime minister and Move Forward cannot form the government, it will break the people’s hearts. And it will be very, very bad.”In 2020, the country’s Constitutional Court disbanded the Future Forward Party, the previous iteration of the Move Forward Party, after the election. Tens of thousand of Thais took to the streets of Bangkok to protest the decision.What started out as a protest for democratic reforms quickly grew into a pro-democracy movement calling for checks on the Thai monarchy, a subject that was once considered taboo.The country’s conservatives are likely to step up their campaigns to block the rise of Move Forward in the coming days. Last week, a conservative candidate petitioned the Election Commission and the National Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate Mr. Pita for failing to disclose that he owned shares of a now-defunct media company that he had inherited from his father. By law, no candidates running for Member of Parliament are allowed to hold shares in a media firm.Mr. Pita brushed off the petition, saying he had already reported the shares to the authorities.But Move Forward will need to manage many competing interests to keep the coalition intact. It was the only large party that pushed to amend a law criminalizing criticism of the monarchy, arguing that the law had been weaponized by royalists to persecute protesters who participated in pro-democracy demonstrations.Anti-government protesters clashing with riot police in Bangkok in 2020.Adam Dean for The New York TimesOn Sunday night, Mr. Pita said he was still going to press ahead with amending the royal protection law.Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of Mr. Thaksin and a Pheu Thai candidate for prime minister, said on Monday that she was “ready to discuss” the issue of young people being charged with violating the law, known as Article 112. But she added that her party would not vote to get rid of the law altogether.“We will have to tell Move Forward Party that we do not support the abolishment of Article 112,” she said.Pirada Anuwech More

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      In Blow to Junta, Thai Voters Overwhelmingly Back Opposition Parties

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      Thais on Sunday cast votes against their military leaders, backing instead a populist political mainstay and a progressive upstart bent on shaking up the status quo.Voters in Thailand overwhelmingly sought to end nearly a decade of military rule on Sunday, casting ballots in favor of two opposition parties that have pledged to curtail the power of the country’s powerful conservative institutions: the military and the monarchy.With 97 percent of the votes counted early Monday morning, the progressive Move Forward Party was neck and neck with the populist Pheu Thai Party. Move Forward had won 151 seats to Pheu Thai’s 141 in the 500-seat House of Representatives.In most parliamentary systems, the two parties would form a new governing coalition and choose a prime minister. But under the rules of the current Thai system, written by the military after its 2014 coup, the junta will still play kingmaker.The election had widely been seen as an easy victory for Pheu Thai, the country’s largest opposition party founded by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. A billionaire tycoon, Mr. Thaksin, 73, was ousted in a coup in 2006 after accusations of corruption, but he is still fondly remembered as a populist champion for the rural poor. Polls had showed that Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, was the leading choice for prime minister.But in a surprise, the Move Forward Party, a progressive political party that called for upending old power structures and amending a law that criminalizes public criticism of the monarchy, made stunning strides, capturing young urban voters, and the capital, Bangkok.“We can frame this election as a referendum on traditional power centers in Thai politics,” said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “People want change, and not just a change of government, they want structural reform.”Supporters of the Move Forward Party react as they watch results come in at the party headquarters in Bangkok on Sunday night.Jack Taylor/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe key question that many Thais now have is whether the military establishment, which has long kept an iron grip on Thailand’s politics, will accept the result.Move Forward has targeted institutions and policies once considered sacrosanct in Thai society, including mandatory military conscription and the laws that protect the king from criticism. And having the Pheu Thai Party in government could effectively place the party’s founder and one of the military’s top rivals, Mr. Thaksin, back at the center of the country’s politics.The results were a humbling blow for Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who governed Thailand for almost nine years, the longest stretch of military governance in a nation used to coups.Mr. Prayuth has presided over a lagging economy, and in 2020 waged a harsh crackdown on protesters who gathered in the streets of Bangkok to call for democratic reforms. Although Thailand is one of two formal U.S. allies in Southeast Asia, he distanced himself from Washington and leaned closer to Beijing.As of early Monday, it remained unclear who would ultimately lead the country. The junta rewrote the country’s Constitution in 2017 so that selecting the prime minister would come down to a joint vote between the 250-member military-appointed Senate and the popularly elected House of Representatives. The decision could take weeks or months.Because both Pheu Thai and Move Forward do not have enough seats to form a majority, they will need to negotiate with each other and other parties to establish a coalition. Analysts said Move Forward’s stance on changing the royal protection law might complicate negotiations for forming a coalition. Before the vote, Move Forward attempted to moderate its position on the measure, toning down its calls for reform.Pheu Thai Party’s prime ministerial candidates Paetongtarn Shinawatra, center, and Srettha Thavisin, third from left, in Bangkok on Sunday night.Manan Vatsyayana/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesBut on Sunday, Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of Move Forward made it clear that the amendment was still high on his party’s agenda, saying they now have enough members of Parliament to push it forward.“So it’s not conditional, it’s already absolute that we are going with it,” he said.Mr. Pita, 42, a former businessman, was fielded as Move Forward’s leader after the country’s Constitutional Court dissolved the party’s previous iteration, the Future Forward Party, in 2020, and barred the party’s senior executives from politics for 10 years. A graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Mr. Pita is a charismatic speaker, who called on voters to create “a new history in Thai politics.”His background as a technocrat contrasts with the leading contender from Pheu Thai, which has sought to promote Ms. Paetongtarn, Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter.Ms. Paetongtarn, an executive in her family’s hotel management company with little political experience, was selected to run after her father said people “wanted to see a Shinawatra family representative as a force in the party.”She proved to be an effective campaigner, stumping even in the last weeks of her pregnancy. (She gave birth on May 1 and quickly returned to the campaign trail.) The strong showing for Move Forward was remarkable for a party that was thought to be too radical for the general population. Move Forward ran on a platform that included legalizing same-sex marriage and a $13 daily minimum wage.The election was cast as an existential struggle for the future of the country. Both Pheu Thai and Move Forward campaigned on pledges to return Thailand to the path of electoral democracy, calling on people to reject the “uncles” or the “Three Ps,” referring to the generals who have governed Thailand since the coup: Mr. Prayuth, Deputy Prime Minister General Prawit “Pom” Wongsuwan and Interior Minister General Anupong “Pok” Paochinda.United Thai Nation Party’s candidate Prayut Chan-O-Cha in Bangkok on Sunday.Lillian Suwanrumpha/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMove Forward was even more emphatic in saying that it would never work with military-backed parties, a stance that drew more voters to the party. Several youths who had joined the 2020 protests campaigned as first-time candidates for Move Forward in the election.The vote underscored just how politically fragmented the nation of 72 million is now. No longer is it split between the “red shirt” pro-Thaksin protesters from the rural north and the “yellow shirt” anti-Thaksin faction made up of royalists and the urban elite. Now it is divided along generational lines.On Sunday, millions of Thais lined up in roughly 100-degree heat to cast their vote.“I really hope for change,” said Saisunee Chawasirikunthon, 48, an employee at a telecommunications company. “We have lived with the same old thing for the past eight years.”During his final rally on Friday, Mr. Prayuth, the former general, urged voters to choose continuity, playing a video that showed graffiti on the Democracy Monument in Bangkok and a young girl uploading a pornographic clip of herself because she had “freedom.”“We don’t need change that flips the country,” he said.For the past century, Thailand has swung between civilian democracy and military control, with the armed forces engineering a dozen coups within that period. On Thursday, Narongpan Jitkaewthae, Thailand’s army chief, took pains to assure the public that things would be different this time.He said that the country had learned its lessons from its past, and that “politics in a democratic system must continue,” although he added that he “cannot guarantee” that another coup would not happen. More

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      Your Monday Briefing: Thailand Votes for Change

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      Also, updates on the Turkish elections.Pita Limjaroenrat is the head of the Move Forward Party and a prime ministerial candidate.Jack Taylor/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThai voters support changeThai voters overwhelmingly sought to end nearly a decade of military rule, casting ballots in favor of two opposition parties that have pledged to curtail the power of two powerful conservative institutions: the military and the monarchy.With 97 percent of the votes counted as of early this morning, the progressive Move Forward Party was neck and neck with the populist Pheu Thai Party. Move Forward had won 151 seats to Pheu Thai’s 141 in the 500-seat House of Representatives.“We can frame this election as a referendum on traditional power centers in Thai politics,” Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said. “People want change, and not just a change of government. They want structural reform.”What is also clear is that the results are a humbling blow for Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who took power in a coup in 2014. Move Forward: The party has targeted mandatory military conscription and seeks to amend a law that criminalizes criticizing the royal family. It has made stunning strides, capturing young urban voters, and voters in the capital Bangkok.Pheu Thai: The party was founded by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is still fondly remembered as a champion for the poor after his ousting in a coup in 2006 amid accusations of corruption. Thaksin’s daughter was the leading choice for prime minister, according to polls.What’s next: Because both Pheu Thai and Move Forward do not have enough seats to form a majority, they will need to negotiate with other parties to establish a coalition. But under the rules of the Thai system, written by the military after the coup, the junta would still play kingmaker. A decision about who will lead could take weeks or even months.Turkey’s election could unseat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesTurkey’s pivotal electionPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan was facing the fiercest political challenge to his 20 years in power as Turkish voters went to the polls yesterday. The outcome could reshape the domestic and foreign policies of Turkey.The results are still coming in, but the state-run news agency reported that initial results showed Erdogan ahead. Opposition leaders dismissed those figures, and Erdogan’s top challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, wrote on Twitter, “We are leading.”If no candidate secures a majority, the two front-runners would go to a runoff on May 28. Follow our live coverage.Background: The vote was, in many ways, a referendum on Erdogan’s two decades as Turkey’s dominant politician. He faced an extremely tight race, largely because of anger at the state of the economy, which has suffered painful inflation since 2018.The vote also came three months after earthquakes killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey, raising questions about whether Erdogan’s emphasis on construction produced buildings that were unsafe.Election integrity: Turkey is neither a full-blown democracy nor a full-blown autocracy, and Erdogan has tilted the political playing field in his favor over the past two decades.The war in Ukraine: A defeat for Erdogan would be a boon to the West and a loss for Russia. Erdogan has increased trade with Moscow, pursued closer ties with President Vladimir Putin and hampered NATO’s expansion.Residents surveying the damage from Cyclone Mocha in Kyauktaw, Myanmar, yesterday.Sai Aung Main/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesCyclone Mocha makes landfallA storm forecast to be the strongest to hit Myanmar in more than a decade made landfall near the Bangladesh border yesterday. The storm, Cyclone Mocha, has killed at least six people, but early reports suggest that it so far has not led to the humanitarian catastrophe that the authorities feared.The area hit by the cyclone, in western Myanmar, is home to some of the world’s poorest people. The storm passed through Cox’s Bazar, a city in Bangladesh that is home to the world’s largest refugee encampment, though officials said they had not yet received reports of damage there.The World Food Program said it was preparing for a large-scale emergency response. But some officials expressed cautious hope that the region could be spared the storm’s worst possible damage as it weakened over land.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificSupporters of the opposition party celebrating the Karnataka state election results.Aijaz Rahi/Associated PressPrime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party lost the elections in Karnataka, the only state government it held in India’s south.Beijing’s crackdown on companies with foreign ties has spooked some business executives. The country’s focus on bolstering national security may harm its economic growth.China ordered Tesla to recall 1.1 million vehicles over braking risks.A prominent human rights activist in China was sentenced to eight years in prison, after being detained in 2021 for trying to fly to the U.S. to visit his dying wife.The War in UkraineUkraine is making small gains in Bakhmut, but Russia still controls about 90 percent of the city.A Chinese envoy will visit Ukraine and Russia this week in an attempt to negotiate an end to the war.President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Germany’s leaders in Berlin and thanked them for their massive aid package.Some U.S. and European officials say the next phase of the war could create momentum for diplomacy with Russia.Around the WorldThe five-day escalation killed at least 33 people in Gaza and two in Israel.Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/ReutersA cease-fire between Israel and Palestinian fighters in the Gaza Strip was largely upheld yesterday, aside from a brief exchange of fire.Sweden won this year’s Eurovision Song Contest, which showed European solidarity with Ukraine.Iran released two French citizens who had been accused of spying, which they denied.A Kenyan pastor promised his followers salvation through death by starvation. As of last week, 179 bodies have been exhumed from his property.A Morning ReadConnie Chung, center, is one of the most famous Asian women in the U.S. Connie Aramaki for The New York TimesMany Asian American women are named after Connie Chung, a veteran U.S. television journalist. The writer Connie Wang explored the phenomenon, which she calls “Generation Connie.”“We all have our own stories about how our families came to the United States, and why they chose the name they did,” she wrote. “But we’re also part of a larger story: about the patterns that form from specific immigration policies, and the ripple effects that one woman on TV prompted just by being there, doing her job.”ARTS AND IDEASDurga Mahato was beaten and accused of being a witch.Samyukta Lakshmi for The New York TimesWitch hunting in IndiaFor centuries in India, the branding of witches was driven largely by superstition. A crop would fail, a well would run dry, or a family member would fall ill, and villagers would find someone — almost always a woman — to blame for a misfortune whose cause they did not understand.Many Indian states have passed laws to eradicate witch hunting, but the practice persists in some states. From 2010 to 2021, more than 1,500 people were killed after accusations of witchcraft, according to government data.One state has tried to stop the practice by deploying “witch-hunting prevention campaign teams,” which conduct street plays to raise awareness. But enforcement of anti-witch-hunting laws can be weak, and entrenched beliefs are difficult to change, activists say.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookJohnny Miller for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Sue Li.For a luxurious weekday breakfast, make these fluffy banana pancakes.What to WatchIn “The Starling Girl,” a pious teenager begins an affair with her youth pastor.What to Listen toOur editors made a playlist of hot new songs.ExerciseFitness Instagram accounts may do more harm than good. Find ones you can trust.The News QuizHow well did you follow last week’s headlines?Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Walnut or chestnut (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Don’t forget to tell us about a song that reminds you of your home. I’ve enjoyed reading your responses.The most recent edition of “The Daily” is on the U.S. debt limit.We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Thailand’s Election: What to Watch and What’s at Stake

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      The vote is seen as a referendum on the military, which has ruled Thailand for nine years. Results could determine the path for democracy in the country.Thai voters headed to the polls on Sunday in a hotly contested election that will determine whether Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who seized power in a coup in 2014, is unseated by his rivals.An observer of Thai politics has called the election the most consequential one in his lifetime.Opinion polls show that many voters want change, backing opposition parties that have promised to restore democratic rule in Thailand and roll back some of the authoritarian policies introduced by Mr. Prayuth.There is a broad sentiment that Mr. Prayuth has done little to boost the economy after nine years in power. His harsh crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Bangkok in 2020 has also alienated many voters.Thailand’s prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, center, campaigning for the United Thai Nation Party in Narathiwat on Monday.Madaree Tohlala/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“If we end up with more or less the same kind of government that we’ve had for years, there’ll be a lot of unhappiness, a lot of grievances in Thailand,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, referring to the country’s economic stagnation.Here is what you need to know about the election.Who is the front-runner?Paetongtarn Shinawatra, of the populist Pheu Thai Party, is the current front-runner for prime minister, according to most opinion polls. The 36-year-old — known in Thailand as “Ung Ing” — is the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, and much of her appeal rests on her family name.Mr. Thaksin was prime minister from 2001 to 2006 and is still fondly remembered by many Thais for starting a $1 universal health care program and for distributing subsidies to farmers. Since 2001, the populist political parties he founded, including Pheu Thai, have consistently won the most votes in every election.But Mr. Thaksin, a billionaire tycoon, remains widely disliked by wealthy conservatives and the military. The army overthrew him in a coup in 2006, and Mr. Thaksin fled the country. (His sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, also met a similar fate eight years later, after her tenure as prime minister.) Mr. Thaksin, who lives mostly in Dubai, was sentenced in absentia to 12 years for corruption and abuse of power.The Pheu Thai Party’s prime minister candidate, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, greeting the media with her newborn son at a news conference at a Bangkok hospital in May.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockMs. Paetongtarn’s rise has fueled questions about whether she would bring her father back to Thailand, and many Thais are now bracing for a possible repeat of the instability that defined the two previous Shinawatra administrations.Ms. Paetongtarn, who gave birth to a baby boy on May 1 before immediately returning to the campaign trail, is also facing stiff competition from Pita Limjaroenrat, a candidate with the progressive Move Forward Party. In one recent poll, Mr. Pita emerged as the top choice for prime minister.What does the electoral process look like?The prime minister is not selected through popular vote, but by the 500-member House of Representatives and the 250-member military-appointed Senate.In 2019, the Senate backed Mr. Prayuth unanimously and is likely to align itself with a military proxy candidate again. If it votes as a bloc, an opposition politician would need to cobble together a huge majority in the lower house — at least 376 votes — to lead the country.Already, Senator Wanchai Sornsiri has said he and a group of fellow senators “definitely would not choose” Ms. Paetongtarn as prime minister. But it remains unclear whom exactly the military would choose.The vote could be split.One major surprise this election was the separation of Mr. Prayuth from his comrade-in-arms, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan. Mr. Prayuth joined the United Thai Nation Party, which was established solely to field him as a candidate in the election. Mr. Prawit stayed with Palang Pracharath, Mr. Prayuth’s former party.Pheu Thai, the populist party of the former prime minister’s daughter, has been dogged by speculation that it could combine forces to form a coalition with the party of Mr. Prawit. He is widely considered one of the most powerful politicians in Thailand and was the previous army chief under Mr. Thaksin.Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha of Thailand, left, greeting Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan at Parliament in 2022.Sakchai Lalit/Associated PressPheu Thai has consistently denied these rumors, but many skeptical Thais say they would vote for the progressive Move Forward Party to prevent such an outcome.What are the major issues?The Move Forward Party has proposed amending a strict law that forbids defaming, insulting or threatening the king and other members of the royal family in Thailand after the authorities charged more than 200 people for violating the law during mass pro-democracy protests in Bangkok in 2020.Conviction under the law, known as Article 112, carries a minimum sentence of three years and a maximum sentence of up to 15. It is the only crime in Thailand for which a minimum jail term is imposed.Bread-and-butter issues are also at the forefront of voters’ minds. Thailand’s tourism-dependent economy was hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, and the country reported the slowest economic growth last year among other major economies in Southeast Asia.This is why nearly every political party is relying on populist policies, such as cash handouts and subsidies, to lure voters.How does the military come into play?If history is any indicator, the military, which has dominated Thai politics for decades, is unlikely to relinquish power easily.In addition to engineering a dozen coups within a century, Thai generals rewrote the Constitution in 2017 to stack the Senate with allies and ensure that the military would have the power to determine the country’s prime minister.Even if Mr. Prayuth loses the popular vote, he could still end up with the top job, leading a minority government.“When everything is so well planned, I don’t think we can be optimistic about change after this election,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.In 2020, the country’s Constitutional Court disbanded the Future Forward Party, the previous iteration of the Move Forward Party, after it unexpectedly finished third in the 2019 elections. Mr. Thaksin’s two previous political parties were also dissolved by military leaders. (Conservative officials have also threatened to disband the Move Forward Party this election.)Pita Limjaroenrat, the Move Forward Party’s candidate for prime minister, greeting his supporters at a rally in Bangkok in April.Lauren Decicca/Getty ImagesWanwichit Boonprong, a political scientist at Rangsit University, said parties have to be wary of the junta’s “stealth authoritarianism” after the election. “This will be the great challenge for the new government,” he said. “Every step will be watched, will be under scrutiny.”Muktita Suhartono More

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      A Crucial Question in Thailand’s Election: Can You Criticize the King?

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      Liberal voters have intensified their scrutiny of the Thai monarchy in recent years. Conservatives have responded with a campaign to defend the institution at all costs.When Thais go to the polls on Sunday, they will be voting in a closely fought election that is seen, in part, as a referendum on whether it is illegal to criticize the Thai monarchy.Thailand has one of the world’s strictest laws against defaming or insulting the king and other members of the royal family. Once considered taboo, the topic of the monarchy was brought to the forefront after tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets and called for checks on the institution’s power in 2020.The protests represented two sides of an impassioned struggle to determine the role of the crown in modern Thailand. The election could determine whether the Southeast Asian nation of 72 million will revive its once-vibrant democracy or slide further toward authoritarian rule, with royalists firmly in power.On one side of the debate are conservative political parties whose standard-bearer is Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who has governed Thailand for nine years after seizing power in a coup. He and his supporters argue that amending the law could lead to abolishing the monarchy altogether, and have vowed to defend the royal family.On the other side is the progressive Move Forward Party, which is polling in second place and argues that the law needs to be amended because it is being used as a political weapon. Several young people who participated in the 2020 protests are now running as candidates with the Move Forward Party.Anti-government protesters flashing a three-fingered salute, a sign of resistance, at a demonstration in Bangkok in 2020.Adam Dean for The New York Times“Perhaps one of the deepest fault lines in Thai society is about the monarchy,” said Sunai Phasuk, a senior researcher on Thailand for Human Rights Watch.Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of the ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the front-runner for prime minister, is treading carefully. Her father, a populist billionaire, is one of the most divisive political figures in Thailand. He lives in self-exile after being ousted in a coup in 2006 and can only return to Thailand with the king’s permission.Royalists have consistently accused Mr. Thaksin of wanting to overthrow the monarchy, a charge that he denies. Ms. Paetongtarn has said her party, Pheu Thai, would not abolish the law protecting the monarchy from criticism, but that the issue of reform must be openly discussed in Parliament.King Maha Vajiralongkorn greeting his supporters in Bangkok during a ceremony in remembrance of his father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej.Adam Dean for The New York TimesOpinion polls show that the party of Mr. Prayuth, United Thai Nation, is trailing in third place behind Pheu Thai, which has topped the polls. In recent weeks, there has also been a surge in support for the Move Forward Party, which is polling a close No. 2.Move Forward is the largest party pushing to amend the law, irking conservatives who have accused it of undermining the monarchy. The party wants to cut the jail terms of violators of the law and designate the Bureau of the Royal Household as the only agency allowed to file lawsuits. (Any Thai citizen is able to file complaints under the current version of the law.)Conservative politicians have threatened to disband Move Forward. The party’s previous iteration, the Future Forward Party, was dissolved in 2020 by the Constitutional Court. In a sign of how sensitive the topic of reform has become, Move Forward has attempted to moderate its position, saying reform would not take precedence in its campaign.For decades, the monarchy and the military have had a symbiotic relationship, with the army frequently reminding the public that it is the true guardian of the Thai crown. Thais are taught from a young age that they have to love the king and that any criticism of the monarchy is strictly forbidden.But today, many Thais no longer stand at attention when the royal anthem is played in public spaces such as movie theaters. Royalist Marketplace, a Facebook group set up to satirize the monarchy, had more than 1 million members before Facebook blocked access to it in 2020, citing a Thai government request.The law criminalizing criticism of the monarchy carries a minimum sentence of three years if violated — the only law in Thailand that imposes a minimum jail term — and a maximum sentence of up to 15 years. After the 2020 protests, the authorities charged at least 223 people, including 17 minors, for violating the law, known as Article 112.In the area around the Grand Palace in Bangkok, posters of the king and queen are ubiquitous.Adam Dean for The New York TimesTantawan “Tawan” Tuatulanon, a 21-year-old law student, was accused of violating the rule in 2022 after she and her friends conducted a poll asking whether the royal motorcade was an inconvenience to Bangkok residents.In recent weeks, she has been pressing political parties on whether they would amend the law — which she is in favor of abolishing — after the election. On Wednesday, Ms. Tantawan was arrested after she called for the release of a 15-year-old charged with violating the rule.“I feel we don’t need any law that specially protects anybody or any family,” said Ms. Tantawan, who mounted a hunger strike earlier this year in protest against the government. “He is a person like us, not a god or a demigod.”King Maha Vajiralongkorn Bodindradebayavarangkun, who ascended the throne in 2016, is not as beloved as his father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who reigned for 70 years. While King Bhumibol was revered in Thailand, his son used to spend most of his time in Germany, though he has been seen more often in public since the 2020 protests.In the wake of the protests, Mr. Prayuth instructed all government officials to “use every single law” to prosecute anyone who criticized the monarchy. Royalists stepped up their campaign against people they accused of insulting the crown, filing more complaints and attacking anti-monarchy activists.In 2021, Warong Dechgitvigrom, a former doctor, founded Thailand’s first far-right party, Thai Pakdee, in response to what he called the “Three Fingers Mob,” referring to the three-finger salute adopted by young Thais as a symbol of resistance during the 2020 protests.A supporter holds up a poster of King Bhumibol Adulyadej during a rally for Thai Pakdee, a right-wing party that is centered on defending the monarchy against criticism.Jorge Silva/ReutersHe now says the current law protecting the monarchy does not go far enough, as it is limited to shielding four key members of the royal family. Former Thai kings, princes, princesses and the word “monarchy” itself should also be protected, he said.Although Mr. Warong’s views are considered extreme, he says he has collected about 6,000 to 7,000 signatures for his proposal, and that he is confident he can gather the 10,000 signatures needed for the House of Representatives to consider passing the bill.Mr. Warong says people need to understand that the Thai monarchy is unique. He recalled France’s former monarchy as one characterized by the oppression of its people. “But ours is like father and children,” he said. “We have good feelings together, there are no bad feelings.”Those views are at odds with how many young people feel about the king. During the 2020 demonstrations, protesters questioned the wealth of the royal family, which is one of the richest in the world.Protesters in 2020 at a pro-democracy rally in front of the Siam Commercial Bank, demanding that the king return royal assets to the people and reform the monarchy.Adam Dean for The New York TimesKasit Piromya, a former foreign minister, said it would be challenging for Mr. Warong and his party to lead a successful campaign backing the constitutional monarchy because many young people “don’t see what is in it for them.”“If you cannot speak this in the open, then it gives more room and ammunition to the students, to the Thaksin supporters to say, ‘We are more democratic,’” Mr. Kasit said, referring to calls to reform the monarchy.Arnond Sakworawich, an assistant professor of statistics at the National Institute of Development Administration, said that preserving Article 112 was necessary because the king and the royal family do not defend themselves against criticism.“It’s a different culture, because in Thailand, people believe that the king is their parent, and parents never hurt their children,” said Mr. Arnond, who is known for his royalist views. “So there must be some people to protect the king.”In their zeal to defend the monarchy, many royalists may ultimately end up hurting the institution more than they protect it.Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, the head of the department of government at Chulalongkorn University, said it was “very precarious and risky” for parties such as Thai Pakdee to use the monarchy as a campaigning platform.“Even though the monarchy is above politics, it’s now drawn into the divide,” she said. “It will polarize the voters and parties into two camps, inevitably.”Young protesters flash the three-fingered, anti-government salute at a pro-democracy rally at Democracy Monument in Bangkok.Adam Dean for The New York TimesRyn Jirenuwat More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: China Walks Back Ambassador’s Comments

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      Also, Beijing is trying to control chatbots and Thailand prepares for tense elections.Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France, post-Soviet countries “do not have an effective status in international law.”Sebastien Nogier/EPA, via ShutterstockChina does damage controlChina moved quickly yesterday to limit damage to its relations with Europe, after the Chinese ambassador to France questioned the sovereignty of post-Soviet nations like Ukraine. The comments by Lu Shaye, the ambassador, in a televised interview on Friday caused a diplomatic firestorm over the weekend among European foreign ministers and lawmakers. China tried to stem the fallout by insisting that it recognized the sovereignty of the former Soviet republics that declared independence, including Ukraine. But the issue has not disappeared. France summoned Lu to the foreign ministry to explain the comments. The Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — which were annexed by the Soviet Union after World War II — also said they would summon their Chinese envoys.Diplomacy: The fallout over the remarks threatened to upset China’s efforts to bolster trade with Europe while still supporting Russia. The war in Ukraine has put China in an awkward position. Beijing has refused to condemn the invasion but has promised not to militarily help Russia.Analysis: Europeans, one expert said, will listen to Lu’s comments “and think, this is how the Chinese and Russians talk among themselves,” about a world divided into spheres of influence — China over Taiwan and the Pacific, and Russia over Ukraine and its former empire.Separately: At the U.N., the U.S. and European members of the Security Council declined to send their foreign ministers to a meeting chaired yesterday by Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s top diplomat. China was one of a few countries that sent its minister.Chinese tech companies have been racing to catch up with Silicon Valley’s A.I. advances.Tingshu Wang/ReutersChina tries to rein in chatbotsChina recently unveiled draft rules for artificial intelligence software systems, like the one behind ChatGPT, in a show of the government’s resolve to keep tight regulatory control over technology that could define an era.According to the draft rules, chatbot content will need to reflect “socialist core values” and avoid information that undermines “state power” or national unity. Chatbot creators will also have to register their algorithms with Chinese regulators.Companies are already trying to comply, but China’s effort to control information could hamper its efforts to compete in A.I., experts said. Chinese entrepreneurs are already racing to catch up with chatbots like ChatGPT, which is unavailable in China.The challenge: On their face, China’s rules require a level of technical control over chatbots that Chinese tech companies have not achieved.Paetongtarn Shinawatra has energized crowds in her election campaign.Jack Taylor/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThai elections heat upThe daughter of an ousted populist leader is a strong contender for prime minister in elections in Thailand next month, fueling concerns that the return of a divisive political dynasty may also revive instability in the country.Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, is a member of the most polarizing family in Thai politics — the Shinawatras — and has little political experience. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, was ousted as prime minister in a coup in 2006. His sister succeeded him as prime minister in 2011 before she was also ousted.Critics have tried to seize on her family’s past scandals, but Paetongtarn has galvanized crowds and has fueled nostalgia for her family’s legacy. Many also blame the current prime minister for slow economic growth.Legacy: Thaksin is fondly remembered for his $1 health care program and the disbursement of loans to farmers. Since 2001, the political parties he founded have consistently won the most votes in every election.International relations: Once a stable ally of the U.S., Thailand has moved closer to China under the military junta that ousted the Shinawatras.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificAn Australian battle tank during a live fire demonstration.William West/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAustralia revealed its largest overhaul of military spending since World War II, the BBC reports. It focuses on long-range weapons with an eye toward China’s growing threat.China arrested a liberal columnist at a top party newspaper, accusing him of espionage.Ron DeSantis, Florida’s governor, met with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan in Tokyo. The trip gives DeSantis, a presumptive Republican presidential candidate, a chance to bolster his foreign policy credentials.U.S. NewsPresident Biden will need to defend his record while warning about the dangers of Donald Trump’s return.Michael A. McCoy for The New York TimesPresident Biden will likely formally announce as soon as today that he is running for re-election. Democrats have embraced him, despite his low approval ratings and advanced age.Fox News dismissed the prime-time host Tucker Carlson less than a week after Fox settled a defamation lawsuit in which Carlson’s show figured prominently for its role in spreading misinformation after the 2020 election.Don Lemon, a star anchor at CNN, will also leave his network. He had been under scrutiny after making remarks widely perceived to be sexist.Around the WorldPolice in Kenya expect the death toll to rise.Yasuyoshi Chiba/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesKenyan police uncovered dozens of bodies from graves connected to a Christian pastor, who is being investigated on allegations that he told his congregants to starve themselves to death.Men wearing uniforms of the national military killed at least 60 people in Burkina Faso last week, authorities said.Sudanese people are flooding into neighboring countries that are already racked by poverty and instability.Other Big StoriesIsrael is bracing for a tense Memorial Day today and a 75th Independence Day celebration, which begins tonight.One of the first major studies on remote work showed a potential downside: Employees, particularly young workers and women, may miss out on crucial feedback.Belgium destroyed more than 2,300 cans of Miller High Life beers. Cans with the slogan “Champagne of Beers” were deemed counterfeit champagne.A Morning ReadSince early November, the number of daily active users to Chess.com has jumped from 5.4 million to more than 11 million.Anastasiia Sapon for The New York TimesBy many accounts — from players, parents, teachers and website metrics — chess’s popularity has exploded.Casual observers may attribute the trend to pandemic lockdown and boredom. But quietly a grandmaster plan was also unfolding, carefully crafted by Chess.com to broaden the appeal of the game and turn millennials and Gen Z into chess-playing pawns.AN APPRAISALBarry Humphries as Dame Edna Everage on Broadway in 2004.Sara Krulwich/The New York TimesRemembering Barry Humphries (and Dame Edna)For almost seven decades, Barry Humphries, an Australian-born actor and comic who died on Saturday at 89, brought to life the character Dame Edna, his alter ego. Edna became a cultural phenomenon, “a force of nature trafficking in wicked, sequined commentary on the nature of fame,” my colleague Margalit Fox wrote in her obituary for Humphries.Using Edna as an archetype for the ordinary middle-class matron, Humphries lampooned suburban pretensions, political correctness and the cult of self-crowned celebrity. She toured worldwide in a series of solo stage shows and was ubiquitous on television in the U.S., Britain, Australia and elsewhere.“The genius of Humphries’s conceit,” our former chief theater critic wrote, “was to translate the small-minded, unyielding smugness of the middle-class Australian suburbs in which he grew up into the even more invincible complacency of outrageous, drop-dead stardom.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookJames Ransom for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Barrett Washburne.These creamy overnight oats are the perfect excuse to eat chocolate for breakfast.What to WatchIf you’re craving an action movie, check out “Furies,” a Vietnamese feminist sequel, or “Rusty Blade,” a Chinese swordplay drama.What to ReadHere are eight books about meditation for beginners.HealthCertain foods may help with hot flashes.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Exact copy (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you tomorrow. — AmeliaP.S. Christina Goldbaum will be our next bureau chief for Pakistan and Afghanistan.“The Daily” is on Sudan.You can reach us at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Thaksin Shinawatra’s Daughter Enters Thailand Election

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      An ousted populist’s daughter seeks office, fueling concerns that the return of a divisive political dynasty may revive instability, too.For close to two decades, the military and conservative establishment in Thailand has sought to keep former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his supporters out of power. Mr. Thaksin, a populist politician and a business tycoon, was ousted in a coup in 2006 before he fled the country. Several years later, his sister succeeded him as prime minister and then suffered the same fate.Now, conservatives are watching warily as his political party looks set to dominate next month’s election. The party’s star campaigner: Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter and a strong contender for prime minister.With a formidable last name but little in the way of political experience, Ms. Paetongtarn, 36, has revived the prospect of her father’s return from exile and the resurgence of the most politically polarizing dynasty in Thai politics. Critics have tried to seize on her family’s past scandals — and on her current pregnancy, eight months along — but she has galvanized crowds during campaign events and fueled nostalgia for her family’s legacy.Ms. Paetongtarn’s rise has stirred concerns that if she were elected, Thailand might return to the political instability that characterized the terms of her father and aunt, both of whom faced opposition from the military. Questions have dogged her campaign: What are her credentials besides her family name? Would she prioritize ending her father’s exile?Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in Samut Prakan Province in April.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockJatuporn Prompan, a longtime ally of Mr. Thaksin’s, now estranged, said the candidacy of his daughter is a reflection of “how Mr. Thaksin thinks, that he doesn’t trust anyone but his family.”“She will face tremendous pressure from the opposition, be scrutinized and criticized,” Mr. Jatuporn said. “Mr. Thaksin shouldn’t do this to his children.”It remains unclear if Ms. Paetongtarn, a deputy chief executive of a family-run hotel management company, will ultimately get the top job. Pheu Thai, the party founded by her father, has named two other candidates for prime minister in addition to her: a real estate mogul and a former attorney general.It is likely that the 250-member military-appointed Senate, which ultimately votes for the prime minister, would resist choosing the daughter of a longtime nemesis. She also faces a challenge from the Move Forward Party, a progressive party that has appealed to the young.But there is no disputing that Mr. Thaksin’s political brand continues to be a force to be reckoned with in Thailand, even 17 years after he went into exile abroad.Pheu Thai supporters at a rally in Bangkok this month. Ms. Paetongtarn has galvanized crowds and fueled nostalgia for her family’s legacy.Lauren DeCicca/Getty ImagesSince 2001, the political parties he founded have consistently won the most votes in every election. (Pheu Thai is the third incarnation of Mr. Thaksin’s party after the previous two were dissolved.) Many Thais still recall fondly his populist agenda, in particular his $1 health care program and the disbursement of loans to farmers when he was prime minister from 2001 to 2006.“The whole sense of caring for the poor and the downtrodden and the ability of Thaksin to communicate in a simple Thai language to the 47 million Thai people — the have-nots — there has not been any Thai politician that has been able to give an alternative,” said Kasit Piromya, a former foreign minister who later became an outspoken critic of Mr. Thaksin.But that same popularity made Mr. Thaksin, 73, a threat to the conservative establishment: a nexus of Thai royalists; the wealthy and the military; and the Thais who support them. His political rivals have consistently accused him of trying to overthrow the Thai monarchy.Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha — the general who seized power from Ms. Thaksin’s sister in a 2014 coup and has ruled the country since as a staunch royalist — walked out of a news conference in January when a reporter tried to ask him about the possibility of Mr. Thaksin’s return. “Don’t talk about that person,” he said. “I don’t like it.”Despite Mr. Thaksin’s political misfortunes, he remains one of Thailand’s wealthiest people, with a net worth in 2022 of about $2.1 billion.In a 2001 photo, Thaksin Shinawatra, then the newly elected prime minister, stands with his wife, Potjaman; son, Parntongtae; and daughters, Paetongtarn and Pintongta.Sakchai Lalit/Associated PressMs. Paetongtarn has said there are “no plans” for her father, who lives mostly in Dubai, to return to Thailand, though Mr. Thaksin has said previously he would “definitely return” this year. Ms. Paetongtarn’s press team declined to make her available for an interview with The New York Times.Some Thais are frustrated that Mr. Thaksin’s possible return has once again become an election issue, for his popularity is not universal, particularly among younger voters.Accusations of corruption dogged Mr. Thaksin’s second term in office. In 2006, there were months of protests in Bangkok after reports that his family had netted $1.9 billion from the tax-free sale of their stake in Shin Corporation, a vast telecommunications conglomerate run by the family, to Singapore’s Temasek. The unrest culminated in a coup that year.In 2008, Mr. Thaksin fled to England, saying he could not get a fair trial on a series of corruption charges; he was later sentenced to a total of 12 years in prison.In 2013, Mr. Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck, who had become prime minister in 2011, proposed an amnesty bill to pardon people who committed offenses during the turmoil after the 2006 coup. This triggered violent protests. After another coup in 2014, Ms. Yingluck fled Thailand in 2017, shortly before she was to appear in court on negligence charges over a rice subsidy scheme.Protesters in Bangkok in 2006 calling for Mr. Thaksin’s resignation over the family’s $1.9 billion tax-free sale of stock of the Thaksin-founded communications giant Shin Corp. to a Singapore company.Narong Sangnak/European Pressphoto AgencyThe country has become more polarized in the years since Mr. Thaksin and his sister left. The split between the “red shirt” pro-Thaksin protesters from the rural north and the “yellow shirt” anti-Thaksin faction made up of royalists and the urban elite remains. A new political divide has also emerged — one that runs along generational lines.In 2020, tens of thousands of mostly young protesters gathered in the streets of Bangkok, calling for democratic reform, and, most surprisingly, checks on the monarchy’s power, a previously taboo subject in a country where criticism of the institution can lead to a maximum 15-year prison sentence.Once a stable ally of the United States, Thailand has moved closer to China under the military junta that ousted the Shinawatras. The country reported the slowest economic growth in Southeast Asia last year compared with other major economies in the region. Many Thais blame Prime Minister Prayuth, who is trailing in the polls.Echoing Mr. Thaksin’s populist policies, Pheu Thai has pledged cash handouts and an increase in the minimum wage to $18 a day from the current average of $10.Known widely by her nickname, “Ung Ing,” Ms. Paetongtarn is the third child of Mr. Thaksin and Potjaman Na Pombejra, who divorced Mr. Thaksin in 2008. As a little girl, she shadowed her father while he campaigned and played golf. She graduated with a degree in political science from Chulalongkorn University and then studied international hotel management at the University of Surrey in England.In a 2022 television interview, Ms. Paetongtarn recalled the day the army launched the coup against her father, when she was 20. She was studying with a friend when her mother called and told her to come home: “The tanks are out.” “Confused, I thought to myself: ‘What is a tank?’” Ms. Paetongtarn recalled. She said she cried and feared for the safety of her family.“The country needs to move forward,” she said in the same television interview.Mr. Thaksin said his daughter was drafted into politics after people said, “they wanted to see a Shinawatra family representative as a force in the party.” They had asked for a volunteer, “and Paetongtarn answered the call,” he told Nikkei Asia, a Japanese news outlet.The three candidates for prime minister from the Pheu Thai party, Srettha Thavisin, Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Chaikasem Nitsiri, at a rally in Bangkok this month.Lauren Decicca/Getty ImagesNattawut Saikua, director of the “Pheu Thai Family,” said he believes in Ms. Paetongtarn’s potential, citing her ability to galvanize crowds. “She will succeed” with the help of advisers, he said in an interview.It remains unclear if Ms. Paetongtarn’s campaign will resonate among Thai youths. Last month during a Pheu Thai rally, youth activists asked if Pheu Thai would amend the law that criminalizes criticism of the monarchy.Two activists present at the rally, Tantawan Tuatulanon and Orawan Phuphong, said that the group asked Ms. Paetongtarn to mark on a board if she agreed that the law, known as Article 112, should be abolished. According to Ms. Tantawan and Ms. Orawan, Ms. Paetongtarn told the activists: “I don’t want to participate in this activity.”Then she walked away.Ryn Jirenuwat More