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    US’s $2.36tn tourism business fears ‘Trump slump’ over tariff turmoil

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    Batman said business was so-so, and King Kong beat his chest in agreement. But neither could predict that it would improve. Gotham’s caped crusader and his muscular ape neighbour could only hope. As with Times Square’s superhero-themed visitor-photography business last week, so it is with the US tourism business at large.The effect of economic and political turbulence on the number of foreign visitors coming to the US is for now hard to define. But both – whether through tariffs, currency exchange chaos, or fears over political ill-winds – are sending chills through the $2.36tn business, the world’s most powerful travel and tourism market.Warnings that international tourism to the US could be hit by Donald Trump’s effort to re-engineer economic and political relations with the rest of the world are slowly emerging.The federal government’s National Travel and Tourism Office released preliminary figures last week showing visits to the US from overseas fell 11.6% in March compared with the same month last year. According to the data released on Tuesday, international arrivals from China were down nearly 1%. Wolfgang Georg Arlt, the CEO of the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, called it the “Trump Slump”.The Delta Air Lines CEO, Ed Bastian, also said the company would not expand flying in the second half of the year because of disappointing bookings amid Trump’s unpredictable trade policies after cutting its first-quarter earnings outlook, citing weaker-than-expected corporate and leisure travel demand.“In the last six weeks, we’ve seen a corresponding reduction in broad consumer confidence and corporate confidence,” Bastian told CNBC, adding things “really started to slow” in mid-February.The Las Vegas Visitors and Convention Authority said last week it was projecting a 5% decline in room tax revenue for its upcoming budget – a decline that may reflect Trump’s trade disputes with Canada and Mexico. Those countries account for 2.6 million visitors to sin city, or half of international travel trade.LVCVA’s president, Steve Hill, warned at a budget meeting that short-term projected declines do not make a trend, “although we do expect that this is the start of a decline in international visitation. At some level, the conversation around the tariffs has also alienated some of our potential visitors.”The travel forecasting company Tourism Economics, which late last year projected the US would have nearly 9% more international arrivals this year, along with a 16% increase in spending, revised its annual outlook last week to predict a 9.4% decline in arrivals.The company’s Geena Bevenour said in an email statement that the revised forecast represented “a substantial setback” and eclipsed “the US downside scenario we released in late-February, reflecting a more contentious context for inbound travel and more severe tariff announcements than previously expected.”On the upside, a weakening dollar against sterling, the euro, Japanese yen and Swiss franc could make travel to the US more attractive. Despite the variables, New York this week was full of international visitors, many on Easter break, and others from further afield.A couple from Scotland, who offered their names as James and Zoe, were waiting to board the Staten Island ferry with their two children on Thursday afternoon, and said they weren’t fazed about tariffs or anti-European rhetoric from the White House. Nor had they encountered elevated difficulties at immigration at JFK – aside from the long queues.Notwithstanding their advance booking, the couple said they would not hesitate to return – and had booked a holiday in Florida for next year. “I can see both sides, from a right and left perspective on tariffs and and the US wanting to put its house in order first.”A couple from Belgium, Dave and Gwen Desmet, returning from a boat trip to the Statue of Liberty, said they had been apprehensive at immigration but encountered no problems. But they said that if the trip had not already been booked, they would have waited to better understand the reality of the impact of Trump’s upheavals.“There’s more anxiety,” said Gwen, who said she had advised her son to delete an essay about Donald Trump on his laptop, adding that she was alarmed by changes to US government policy around diversity and gender.Her daughter had worried that it was “not a good time to go to New York”. But her husband, Dave, reasoned that media was “playing a big role” in stirring anxiety and “creating negativity”.Last week, China issued warnings for citizens considering travelling or studying in the US. China’s ministry of culture and tourism cited the “deterioration of China-US economic and trade relations and the domestic security situation in the United States”.American Ring Travel, a tour operator based in California, offers carbon-neutral bus tours of the US that often attract eco-conscious travelers from Europe, said bookings from Germany flattened starting in January after Elon Musk threw his support behind a far-right political party in that country’s federal election.Many travel agents say it may be too early to tell if, beyond visitors from Canada, the US will see its post-Covid gains in foreign tourism wiped out or even reversed.Later this month, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) will release new figures on international travel. Global hotel chains like Hilton Worldwide are seeing share price declines.One high-end travel agent, accustomed to arranging international White Lotus-style luxury holidays for wealthy clients, said he had not seen any changes – yet. But it was still early days. “I think we’re going to feel it soon. People aren’t exhausted yet. But they’re clearly stressed – and will be, especially if their disposable income gets hit,” they said. More

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      in US Politics

      ‘I’m super worried’: fewer UK tourists visiting US amid Trump’s policies and rhetoric

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      After backpacker Rebecca Burke was arrested and locked up for nearly three weeks by US immigration ­officials, she started urging people not to travel to America.Britons seem to have listened: the number of UK residents visiting the US was down 14.3% in March compared with the same month in 2024, official figures show.Analysts believe that Donald Trump’s claims that other countries were “cheating” Americans, and reports of deportations, may have had a chilling effect on travel to the US. But the March dip may be simply an early warning of a bigger fall in the summer, because tourists typically book holidays months in advance.“Once we get into July, August, September, most of those trips will have been booked,” said David Edwards, founder of the Scattered Clouds travel consultancy.“But if there is less global trade, there will be less international business travel. Business travel is booked with a much shorter lead time so if there is uncertainty, business travel could take a swifter hit.”Spring is difficult for travel companies to analyse because Easter moves in the calendar. So could the comparative drop simply be the effect of the Easter school holidays falling in March 2024? It seems unlikely, Edwards said, because the figures from the US National Travel and Tourism Office show an even bigger drop, of 16%, compared with March 2019 when Easter was on 21 April and Trump was nearing the end of his first term.Travellers from other countries also seemed to avoid the US in March – visitors from western Europe who stayed at least one night in the US were down 17% in March, year-on-year. German visitors were down 28.2% and Spanish ones down 24.6% compared with 2024. Overall, global travel to the US was down 11.6%. UK residents make up the largest number of overseas visitors to the US, with 3.9 million a year.View image in fullscreenTTG, the travel industry magazine, published a poll last week showing that two-thirds of travel agents it contacted believed there had been a downturn in bookings, while only 12% of operators said their business had not been affected. Demand for hotel rooms in the US may also be falling. Jan Freitag, national director of hospitality ­analytics at CoStar, which tracks hotel room occupancy, said that the strong dollar had led to an 8% fall in visitors in 2024.“So now with the rhetoric that’s going on, I’m super worried that we’re going to continue to see travel numbers below 2019, maybe even decelerating from 2024,” he said. “Saying ‘you’re cheating us, you have a ­surplus, so we’re going to put a ­tariff on you’ – that rhetoric is not very welcoming.”Research by VisitBritain in 2022 showed that international ­travellers ranked “destination is a ­welcoming place to visit” as the second most important factor in choosing a holiday.View image in fullscreenAfter publicity around deportations of tourists, including Germans and Australians, the UK and German governments have updated their travel advice to warn citizens of the risk. The incidents may also harm the appeal of the 2026 World Cup – currently due to take place in the US, Canada and Mexico, with the later knockout stages entirely in the US – and the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028, Freitag said.“Next year will be very big … If I’m a German father with two boys and I want to show them the World Cup, am I really going to spend $1,000 a pop on an airfare, plus hotel, plus the ticket, if there’s even a remote chance that I will not be able to make it into the country? I’m not going to take that risk. Not everyone will think that, but probably some people will.”Clare Collins, co-founder and chief operations officer for CT Business Travel, said that she expected there would be a decline in leisure travel to the US in the summer, but had not yet seen an impact on business travel.“We’re not seeing any dramatic effects yet for business travel, but that could change in two weeks,” she said. “I think [in] the long-term leisure market, people will choose to spend their money elsewhere.”If the March dip turns into a major fall in travellers from the UK, some airlines may start cutting routes, Edwards said, and that could have an impact on the British economy.The UK travel industry recovered from the Covid pandemic mostly because American tourists flocked to Europe, buoyed by a strong dollar that made hotels more affordable in London and Paris.“Europeans may be thinking ‘I’m not so sure that the US is a welcoming place to visit’,” Edwards said. “Equally, it might be that Americans are thinking ‘how welcome would I be if I go to Europe this year?’” More

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      in UK Politics

      Heathrow airport: Urgent probe ordered into power outage which was branded ‘national embarrassment’

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      Ministers have ordered an urgent probe into the substation fire which forced Heathrow airport to close for 15 hours on Friday – as experts claimed the remarkable meltdown had “embarrassed” Britain on the global stage.The travel plans of up to 300,000 passengers were cast into disarray on Friday after the blaze at a single west London substation grounded more than 1,300 flights between Europe’s busiest airport and locations across the globe.While the airport declared itself “fully operational” once again on Saturday – with hundreds of extra airport staff rallied to facilitate an additional 10,000 passengers travelling through Heathrow – more than 100 flights were cancelled, including those travelling to New York and arriving from Dubai. Heathrow would typically expect to facilitate 600 flights on Saturday.Passenger aircraft operated by British Airways on the tarmac at London Heathrow airport on 21 March More

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      in US Politics

      US tourism industry faces drop-off as immigration agenda deters travellers

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      A string of high-profile arrests and detentions of travellers is likely to cause a major downturn in tourism to the US, with latest figures already showing a serious drop-off, tourist experts said.Several western travellers have recently been rejected at the US border on increasingly flimsy grounds under Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown, some of them shackled and held in detention centers in poor conditions for weeks.Germany updated travel guidance for travelling to the US, warning that breaking entry rules could lead not just to a rejection as before, but arrest or even detention. Three German citizens have been held for prolonged periods despite apparently having committed no crime nor any obvious violation of US visa or immigration rules – including one US green card holder who was detained at Boston’s Logan airport.The UK Foreign Office, too, has bolstered its advice to warn of a risk of arrest after Becky Burke, a tourist from Wales who had been backpacking across America, was stopped at the border with Canada and held for three weeks in a detention facility. Last week members of the UK Subs, a British punk band, were denied entry and detained after they landed at Los Angeles international airport.Even before the most recent spate of detentions, forecast visits to the country this year had been revised downward from a projected 5% rise to a 9% decrease by Tourism Economics, an industry monitoring group, which cited “polarising Trump Administration policies and rhetoric”, particularly around tariffs.It predicted that the drop-off would lead to a $64bn shortfall in the US tourist trade.“There’s been a dramatic shift in our outlook,” said Adam Sacks, the president of Tourism Economics, told the Washington Post. “You’re looking at a much weaker economic engine than what otherwise would’ve been, not just because of tariffs, but the rhetoric and condescending tone around it.”The decline has been most pronounced from neighbouring Canada, which Trump has menaced with crippling tariffs and repeatedly threatened to annex outright. The number of Canadians returning by road from the US fell by 23% in February, year on year, while air traffic fell 13% on a year earlier, according to Canadian government statistics.A Canadian actor made headlines this week when she revealed US authorities had handcuffed her and moved her out of state to a detention center, where she spent several weeks in “inhumane conditions” despite not having been accused of any crime.Neri Karra Sillaman, an entrepreneurship expert at Oxford University, told Fast Company that travellers now viewed entering the US as “too difficult or unpredictable”.“Even if you get a visa, you have the risk of being detained or to be denied,” she said, adding that even as a valid US visa holder, married to an American, she was hesitating to visit the country in the current climate.That climate was in further evidence this week as Denmark and Finland issued cautionary advice to transgender travellers, following US state department rule changes spurred by the Trump administration decree that it would recognise only two genders. The Danish foreign ministry advised travellers who use the gender designation “X” on their passport to contact the US embassy before travelling, while Finland cautioned travellers whose gender had changed that they might not gain entry.The recent episodes are all the more striking because they involve countries long allied to the US, although students and academics from India and the Middle East have also been detained in recent days despite holding valid visas. While visitors from many regions have long had difficulty entering the US, immigration officials have traditionally taken a more lenient stance towards travellers from allied nations.Pedro Rios, the director of the American Friends Service Committee, a non-profit group that aids migrants, told AP that it was unprecedented in the 22 years he had worked at the southern border for travellers from western Europe and Canada to be detained with such regularity.“It’s definitely unusual with these cases so close together, and the rationale for detaining these people doesn’t make sense,” he said. “The only reason I see is there is a much more fervent anti-immigrant atmosphere.” More

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      in US Politics

      Doubts raised over US travel system during 2026 World Cup and 2028 Olympics

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      The United States is unprepared for the burdens placed on its air travel system when the country hosts the 2026 World Cup and 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, according to a report released on Wednesday.The US Travel Association, a non-profit that represents the travel industry, commissioned a report written by former government officials and industry experts. The report raises concerns about visas, creaking infrastructure and poor security technology.The report says that the World Cup, Olympics and Paralympics, 2025 Ryder Cup and celebrations for the US’s 250th birthday could draw in an estimated 40 million visitors to the country.“We’re not ready to host the upcoming mega decade of events that will draw millions of domestic and international travelers. This poses risks to our national security and hampers economic growth,” the report says.While the Trump administration has made significant cuts across the government, the US Travel Association said there needs to be investment in visa processing and airport security.“The president has been outspoken about making this the gold standard of World Cups, the best Olympics that has ever been held,” Geoff Freeman, the US Travel Association’s CEO, told ESPN. “To do those things, to achieve those goals, you’ve got to make some of these investments.”Freeman said he had met with White House officials in the last week. He highlighted visa wait times as a particular problem area, with approval times for some countries that may reach the World Cup – such as Colombia – currently running at nearly two years.“People want to come, but they’re not coming,” Freeman said. “It gets down to these visa wait times. It gets down to the customs inefficiencies. It gets down to a perception in instances that people aren’t welcome. We’re very concerned.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe US will co-host the World Cup with Mexico and Canada, although most of the game will take place in the US. Concerns have also been raised about extreme temperatures players could face during the tournament. More

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      in World Politics

      New Trump-inspired political party launched by Australian billionaire

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      Your support helps us to tell the storyFrom reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it’s investigating the financials of Elon Musk’s pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, ‘The A Word’, which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.Your support makes all the difference.Read moreAustralian mining magnate Clive Palmer has launched a political party directly inspired by U.S. President Donald Trump.The billionaire unveiled his plans for the Trumpet of Patriots party on Wednesday, just months out from the country’s federal election.”Trumpet of Patriots will put Australians first and make Australia great again,” he told reporters at Parliament House in Canberra.Palmer said he plans to “drain the swamp” in the country’s capital, a reference to Trump’s plans to drastically cut the size of government.”We think Donald Trump’s been very effective in reducing public expenditure,” Palmer said.He was also critical of mass immigration and said the party would only recognise two genders, male and female, reflecting positions also favoured by the U.S. President.The party plans to stand candidates in all 150 seats in Australia’s lower house, as well as the upper chamber, known as the Senate.When asked if he would be running at the election, Palmer said he was “too old” and will instead serve as the party’s chairman.Palmer said U.S. President Donald Trump has been ‘very effective in reducing public expenditure’ since being elected More

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      in UK Politics

      British police cars, American biscuits and wild donkeys – what life is like on the Chagos Islands

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      Your support helps us to tell the storyOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorFind out moreA military presence hangs heavy over the Chagos Islands’ crystal clear blue seas and white sand beaches amid a “hodge podge” of British and American cultures.British police cars drive on the right hand side of the road and a picture of Winston Churchill features at the main airport, while people on the island munch on American biscuits as they walk past coconut crabs and wild donkeys.The Chagos Islands appear to be a place like no other, as revealed by one of the few journalists who has actually been there. Speaking to the BBC’s World at One on Thursday, the broadcaster Alice Cuddy provided a unique insight into life on the archipelago, as Sir Keir Starmer’s government announced that Britain will return the territory to Mauritius.The UK prime minister agreed on Thursday to hand back sovereignty of the long-contested archipelago of more than 60 islands in the Indian Ocean in a deal to secure the future of a strategically important UK-US military base, with Britain still retaining sovereignty over the Diego Garcia military base.A group of Chagossians dedicating a memorial stone to mark their visit to Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos archipelago More

    • 213 Shares129 Views

      in UK Politics

      British police cars, American biscuits and wild donkeys – what life is like on the Chagos Islands

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      Your support helps us to tell the storyOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorFind out moreA military presence hangs heavy over the Chagos Islands’ crystal clear blue seas and white sand beaches amid a “hodge podge” of British and American cultures.British police cars drive on the right hand side of the road and a picture of Winston Churchill features at the main airport, while people on the island munch on American biscuits as they walk past coconut crabs and wild donkeys.The Chagos Islands appear to be a place like no other, as revealed by one of the few journalists who has actually been there. Speaking to the BBC’s World at One on Thursday, the broadcaster Alice Cuddy provided a unique insight into life on the archipelago, as Sir Keir Starmer’s government announced that Britain will return the territory to Mauritius.The UK prime minister agreed on Thursday to hand back sovereignty of the long-contested archipelago of more than 60 islands in the Indian Ocean in a deal to secure the future of a strategically important UK-US military base, with Britain still retaining sovereignty over the Diego Garcia military base.A group of Chagossians dedicating a memorial stone to mark their visit to Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos archipelago More

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      in UK Politics

      What is the UK’s new ETA travel scheme with a £10 charge – and what does it mean for visitors?

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      Your support helps us to tell the storyFind out moreCloseAs your White House correspondent, I ask the tough questions and seek the answers that matter.Your support enables me to be in the room, pressing for transparency and accountability. Without your contributions, we wouldn’t have the resources to challenge those in power.Your donation makes it possible for us to keep doing this important work, keeping you informed every step of the way to the November electionAndrew FeinbergWhite House CorrespondentThe UK’s new Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) scheme will apply to the vast majority of overseas arrivals – even those merely changing planes – by 2 April 2025.The new government says: “Everyone wishing to travel to the UK – except British and Irish citizens – will need permission to travel in advance of coming here. This can be either through an Electronic Travel Authorisation or an eVisa.”The ETA costs £10 and is valid for multiple entries to the UK over the course of two years or until the traveller’s passport expires, whichever is sooner; the eVisa is used by a minority of travellers who do not qualify for “visa-free” status.Ministers say rolling out the scheme worldwide will “prevent abuse of our immigration system”.The ETA will be needed even for those who are “airside” at Heathrow for a short time between international flights.For British travellers, there should be no direct impact. But travel industry figures say rules attached to the ETA will disadvantage UK airlines and tourism.These are the key questions and answers.What is planned?Most visitors to the UK need not go through the complex and expensive business of applying for a British visa; they simply turn up with their passport and apply for entry.But that is all changing with the new online permit. The Electronic Travel Authorisation will be mandatory for all “non-visa” overseas visitors to the UK – except for Irish nationals, who are allowed free movement under the Common Travel Agreement.The starting point of the journey to the UK is not relevant – it is the traveller’s nationality that counts.The ETA is loosely modelled on the US Esta and is electronically linked to the traveller’s passport. The cost is £10. The permit will be valid for repeated journeys within two years or until the passport expires, whichever is sooner.When is it happening?The roll-out began with Qatari nationals travelling to or via the UK on 15 November 2023. On 22 February 2024 the programme was extended to nationals of Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Jordan was later removed from the pilot scheme, for reasons that are unclear.Non-Europeans will need the permit to travel from 8 January 2025, with the ETA mandatory for European arrivals from 2 April 2025.How do travellers obtain an ETA?Online through a UK government website or via the app (search for “UK ETA” on the Apple app store or Google Play).You need to supply a photograph and answer a set of questions. The government says: “This will ensure we have information on those seeking to come to the UK helping to prevent dangerous individuals, such as criminals, entering the UK.”A decision on each case is expected “usually” within three days. In practice, existing similar schemes in the US, Canada and elsewhere deliver approval more quickly.Commercial sites that are designed to tempt applicants to pay additional fees have already appeared, such as etauk.uk, which is based in Spain and has no connection with the UK government.Who will check the ETA?For the majority of travellers, airlines and ferry companies will be expected to verify the ETA status before the passenger boards a flight or ship to the UK. They will be penalised if they fail to check.The government says: “Where an inadequately documented arrival (IDA) is brought to the UK, the carrier may be liable for a fine of up to £2,000.”Ferries from France to Dover, Eurostar trains to London and Eurotunnel shuttles to Folkestone have “juxtaposed controls” and UK Border Force staff will check the permit while the traveller is in Continental Europe.On arrival, UK Border Force will check the ETA and ask supplementary questions before deciding whether or not to allow the traveller in. The government says: “An ETA does not guarantee entry to the UK.”Non-Irish and British travellers from the Republic of Ireland to Northern Ireland will not face checks.What about transit passengers?The UK government has decided to become an outlier by insisting that all connecting travellers must obtain an ETA. This will make London Heathrow airport a more challenging transit hub than the main continental European competitors, plus airports such as Istanbul and Dubai.The almost-worldwide convention is that passengers who are connecting from one gate to another at a hub – not passing through passport control – need only meet the requirements for their final destination.But when the ETA scheme takes full effect next April, all passengers except British and Irish nationals will need a permit – even if they are simply switching from one British Airways plane to another at Heathrow Terminal 5, or making a connection between Star Alliance airlines at the airport’s Terminal 2.Travel industry experts predict overseas travellers with a choice of routings will switch to other hubs to avoid extra red tape and cost – harming Heathrow and leading to a slump in customers for British Airways and Virgin Atlantic.About 30 per cent of passengers at Heathrow are in transit.Paul Charles, director of The PC Agency and former Virgin Atlantic communications director, said: “Taxing transit is tantamount to failure. If other airports offer free transit then they will pick up market share.“Airports should be zones of ease, enabling seamless travel. This proposed tax needs removing.”Rob Burgess, editor of the frequent flyer website Head for Points, says: “Why would anyone pay £40 for a family of four to get an ETA purely so they can transit in the UK on the way from, say, the US to Croatia? All of the other European hub carriers will be laughing as they pick up this business.”A Heathrow spokesperson said: “We don’t disagree with the long-term roll-out of the scheme, but including airside transit passengers will make the UK less competitive and harm economic growth.“We want to work in partnership with Home Office ministers over the next few months to address this issue, and learn from the lessons of the countries trialled, where we’ve seen the loss of a significant number of transfer passengers already.”What does the government say?The minister for Migration and Citizenship, Seema Malhotra, said: “Digitisation enables a smooth experience for the millions of people who pass through the border every year, including the visitors we warmly welcome to the UK who are predicted to contribute over £32bn to our tourism economy this year.“The worldwide expansion of the ETA demonstrates our commitment to enhance security through new technology and embedding a modern immigration system.”Government online information about the new scheme says: “Requiring those transiting to obtain an ETA will stop transit being a future loophole for people to use to avoid needing an ETA. This is in line with the US Esta scheme.”If I’m changing planes in the US I need an Esta…There is a crucial difference: all passengers in transit through the United States are required to clear Customs & Border Protection and be legally admitted to the US. In theory they could decide, instead of transferring at Atlanta, Chicago or Houston, to stay in America for up to three months.This policy does not apply at Heathrow (or elsewhere in Europe) for international-to-international journeys. UK Border Force will not check passengers on arrival at Heathrow if they are continuing their journey internationally.Furthermore, few US airports rely on transit passengers for business in the way that Heathrow does.Besides the potential financial damage to airlines and Heathrow airport, the government decision could also impact British passengers. A number of routes and frequencies are viable only because of the volume of connecting passengers. If services are cut, choice will reduce and fares could rise. More