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      Elecciones en EE. UU.: una contienda reñida sin precedentes

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      Es difícil pensar en unas elecciones en las que tantos estados en disputa estuvieran tan igualados en las encuestas a estas alturas.Haiyun Jiang para The New York TimesLa contienda presidencial está cada vez más reñida.A tres semanas, el promedio de encuestas de The New York Times muestra que Kamala Harris y Donald Trump están esencialmente parejos en los siete principales estados disputados, con una diferencia de menos de un punto porcentual en cinco de ellos.Es difícil pensar en unas elecciones en las que tantos estados cruciales estuvieran tan igualados en las encuestas a estas alturas.Según nuestros cálculos, 2004 fue la última elección en la que las encuestas mostraban a un candidato encabezando los estados decisivos por alrededor de un punto: la ventaja de George W. Bush en estados como Ohio y Wisconsin. Pero incluso entonces tenía una ventaja perceptible, aunque estrecha, en el Colegio Electoral: John Kerry necesitaba arrasar en la mayoría de los estados reñidos para imponerse. Las encuestas no podían calificarse de empate, como las de hoy.¿Antes de 2004? Las elecciones de 2000, por supuesto, pero los sondeos no fueron tan parejos como el resultado real. Si buscamos aún más atrás, es difícil encontrar algo. Nunca ha habido unas elecciones con tantas encuestas que indiquen una contienda tan reñida.¿Está la contienda realmente estrechándose?Los promedios de las encuestas están más parejos que nunca, pero eso no significa necesariamente que haya habido un gran cambio —o incluso ningún cambio— en la contienda.Los mayores cambios en el promedio esta semana se han producido en Míchigan y Wisconsin. Y en este caso, “mayores” no significa “grandes”. Trump ganó un solo punto según nuestros promedios, el tipo de movimiento que puede parecer radical en unas elecciones tan divididas y estables, pero que no habría sido digno de mención en ciclos anteriores. También es un cambio lo suficientemente pequeño como para que una o dos encuestas de alta calidad que favorezcan a Harris la próxima semana puedan hacer que sus números vuelvan a subir rápidamente. De hecho, fueron solo una o dos encuestas de alta calidad las que hicieron bajar sus números. More

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      Trump and Harris Both Like a Child Tax Credit but With Different Aims

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      Kamala Harris’s campaign is pushing a version of the credit intended to fight child poverty, while Donald J. Trump sees the program primarily as a tax cut for people higher up the income scale.Vice President Kamala Harris has made an expanded child tax credit central to her campaign, and former President Donald J. Trump boasts, “I doubled the child tax credit.” With a quick look, voters might think the child-rearing subsidy the rare matter on which the rival candidates agree.It is anything but. The common vocabulary masks profound differences over which parents the government should help and what constitutes fairness for children in a country of great wealth and inequality.Mr. Trump sees the $110 billion program mostly as a tax cut, which as president he increased to $2,000 per child and extended to high-income families. But his policy denies the full benefit to the poorest quarter of children because their parents earn too little and owe no income tax.Ms. Harris would expand the tax cuts and add a large anti-poverty plan, sending checks to millions of parents with low pay or no jobs. That would turn a tax cut into an income guarantee, in a landmark expansion of the safety net.Supporters of the Harris plan say the payments would shrink child poverty. Critics see an expensive welfare scheme that could weaken the willingness to work.“They’re both talking about something called the ‘child tax credit,’ but they’re not at all talking about the same policy,” said Scott Winship of the conservative American Enterprise Institute.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      5 conclusiones de la entrevista de Vance con The New York Times

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      Cuando se le preguntó si creía que las elecciones de 2020 habían sido robadas, Vance eludió responder repetidamente. Y defendió el sentimiento detrás de su comentario “señoras con gatos y sin hijos”, aunque se arrepintió de su elección de palabras.JD Vance sigue participando en la campaña.El candidato republicano a la vicepresidencia y senador por Ohio en su primer mandato habla con los periodistas en los mítines electorales. Está agendando entrevistas en cadenas de televisión y por cable. Y le concedió una entrevista a The New York Times.Algo ha cambiado en la política estadounidense cuando es digno de mención que un candidato se enfrente de manera voluntaria a una pregunta tras otra sin tener un guion. Pero así estamos.En su más reciente participación con los medios de comunicación, Vance se sentó con Lulu Garcia-Navarro, copresentadora de The Interview, un pódcast de The New York Times que presenta una conversación de una hora con un único invitado cada sábado.A continuación, ofrecemos cinco conclusiones de la entrevista de Vance:Sus críticos le llaman débil. Él dice que es complejoParece poco probable que Donald Trump se describa a sí mismo como una persona reflexiva. Vance no puede parar.La entrevista comienza con García-Navarro diciéndole a Vance que, mientras se preparaba para su reunión, surgió una pregunta persistente entre la gente: “¿Cuál JD se va a presentar?”.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      ¿Por qué a Trump le va tan bien con los votantes negros e hispanos?

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      Cinco posibles explicaciones sobre el aumento de apoyo al expresidente, sobre todo entre los hombres jóvenes.Un acto de Trump en el Bronx en mayo mostró el apoyo de negros y latinos.Hiroko Masuike/The New York TimesEn 2016, Donald Trump se convirtió en el candidato republicano y finalmente ganó la presidencia tras llamar violadores a muchos inmigrantes mexicanos y afirmar falsamente que Barack Obama no había nacido en Estados Unidos.Ocho años después, las encuestas sugieren que bien podría volver a la Casa Blanca al obtener mejores resultados entre los votantes negros e hispanos combinados que cualquier candidato presidencial republicano desde la promulgación de la Ley de Derechos Civiles en 1964.¿Cómo es posible? Es una pregunta que me hacen a menudo, y las últimas encuestas del New York Times/Siena College entre votantes negros e hispanos de todo el país representan nuestro mejor esfuerzo por responderla.Al igual que nuestras otras encuestas de este ciclo, los sondeos revelan que a Trump le va inusualmente bien para un republicano entre los votantes negros e hispanos. En general, Kamala Harris va a la cabeza, 78 por ciento a 15 por ciento, entre los votantes negros, y va a la cabeza, 56-37, entre los votantes hispanos.Casi de cualquier manera que podamos medirlo, Trump está funcionando tan bien o mejor entre los votantes negros e hispanos que cualquier republicano en la memoria reciente. En 2020, el apoyo de las personas negras a Joe Biden era del 92 por ciento entre los votantes de los principales partidos; su apoyo hispano era del 63 por ciento, según cálculos del Times.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Most Voters Have Been Offended by Trump. It’s Not Always a Deal Breaker.

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      The vast majority of voters across the United States say they have been offended at some point by former President Donald J. Trump. But a sizable number of those voters say that has not stopped them from supporting him.Overall, 70 percent of voters said that the former president had ever offended them, according to new polling from The New York Times and Siena College.But big differences emerge when voters were asked when they were offended.Nearly half — 46 percent — of the group said that they had been offended recently. Ms. Harris won that group by a margin of more than 80 percentage points.But it was a different story among the 23 percent who said that they had been offended by Mr. Trump, but further in the past. Mr. Trump won that group by roughly 40 percentage points.Donald Trump wins voters who said they found him offensive, but not recently, by a wide margin Has Donald Trump ever said anything that you found offensive?

      Source: A New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,385 voters nationwide conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6By The New York TimesThe question of offensive rhetoric has been a feature of Mr. Trump’s candidacy as long as he has been running for president. He began his first run for the presidency in 2015 by claiming that Mexico was sending “rapists” into America. He won that election after a tape surfaced in which bragged about grabbing women’s genitals. More recently he falsely claimed that immigrants in Ohio were eating people’s pets.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Biden Visits Florida After Hurricane Milton and Calls for Bipartisan Relief Effort

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      The president surveyed damage in Florida and announced $612 million for projects to help the electric grid in areas affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton.During his visit to Florida, President Biden announced $612 million for six Energy Department projects in areas hit by Hurricanes Milton and Helene to improve the region’s electric grid.Eric Lee/The New York TimesStanding in front of one of the many houses wrecked by Hurricane Milton in Florida, President Biden said on Sunday that the storm was devastating for those who lost homes, businesses or relatives, even as he expressed relief that the storm was not as destructive as anticipated.“Thankfully, the storm’s impact was not as cataclysmic as they predicted,” Mr. Biden said in St. Pete Beach. “For some individuals it was cataclysmic. Not only for those individuals who lost their homes, but more importantly those folks who lost their lives, lost family members, lost all their personal belongings. Entire neighborhoods were flooded and millions, millions without power.”Earlier he surveyed the damage from the air: the shredded roof of the Tropicana Field baseball stadium, mounds of debris lining roads and messages spray-painted on furniture piled outside of homes. One message read “Mayor, Gov, Mr Pres, Small Businesses Need Help Too.” Another simply said, “Help us.”“Homeowners have taken a real beating in these back-to back storms,” Mr. Biden said, referring to Milton and Hurricane Helene. “And they’re heartbroken and exhausted, and their expenses are piling up.”Mr. Biden’s visit to the hurricane-ravaged communities in Florida — his second such trip in two weeks — came as he has been managing various crises, including multiple natural disasters, in the final stretch of his presidency. He used the visit to announce $612 million for six Energy Department projects in areas hit by Milton and Helene to improve the region’s electric grid, including nearly $100 million for Florida. On Friday, he declared a major disaster for Florida communities affected by Milton.Mr. Biden also used the moment to call for bipartisan collaboration to help the areas affected pick up the pieces. In a sign of such unity, Mr. Biden was greeted by Representative Anna Paulina Luna and Senator Rick Scott, Florida Republicans who are frequent critics of the Biden administration, after the president finished his helicopter tour.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Harris Suggests Trump Is ‘Weak and Unstable’ in Pointed Challenge

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      Vice President Kamala Harris challenged former President Donald J. Trump on Sunday for refusing to do what she has done in recent days: release a report on his health, sit for a “60 Minutes” interview and commit to another presidential debate.“It makes you wonder: Why does his staff want him to hide away?” Ms. Harris asked the crowd at a rally in a packed college basketball arena in Greenville, N.C. “One must question: Are they afraid that people will see that he is too weak and unstable to lead America?”Her line of attack marked an attempt to turn the tables on Mr. Trump, who for months had suggested that President Biden was too old to be president and accused him of hiding from the American people. And it underscored her efforts to present herself as the candidate of change and Mr. Trump as a relic of the past, as she forms a closing message in the final weeks of her campaign.“From him, we are just hearing from that same, old tired playbook,” she said. “He has no plan for how he would address the needs of the American people. He is only focused on himself.”Vice President Kamala Harris supporters at today’s rally in Greenville, N.C.Erin Schaff/The New York TimesMs. Harris’s rally, which attracted about 7,000 people, was aimed especially at urging supporters in a presidential battleground state to cast their ballots before Election Day. Early voting begins on Thursday in North Carolina. “The election is here,” she said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More