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      The Polls Are Close. The Results Might Not Be.

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      These two things are true about the presidential race: The polls currently show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump effectively tied. And close polls do not necessarily mean there will be a close result.This may feel counterintuitive, but the fact is that we are just a very normal polling error away from either candidate landing a decisive victory, especially in the Electoral College.This is a point my colleague Nate Cohn has made regularly in his election race updates over the last few weeks. But it bears repeating, because a lopsided result when there is an expectation of only razor-thin margins could further fan distrust in the polls and in the electoral process itself.“You can have a close election in the popular vote and somebody could break 315 Electoral College votes, which will not look close,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Or you could get a popular vote that is five points” apart, he added, “which is, by today’s standards, a landslide — a word no one has used this year.”Since 1998, election polls in presidential, House, Senate and governor’s races have diverged from the final vote tally by an average of six percentage points, according to an analysis from FiveThirtyEight. But in the 2022 midterm elections, that average error was 4.8 points, making it the most accurate polling cycle in the last quarter of a century. If polls were off this year, in either direction, by the same margin, the winning candidate would score a decisive victory.Based on where the polling averages stood on Monday, if the polls are underestimating Ms. Harris by 4.8 points in each of the seven swing states, she would win every one of them, and a total of 319 electoral votes, compared with only 219 for Mr. Trump. If those same polls underestimate Mr. Trump by the same margin, he would win all the battleground states, for a total of 312 electoral votes. More

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      The Stakes of the Election

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      Presidential campaigns are often scripted spectacles. They can overshadow policy ideas. So editors of The Morning asked reporters at The Times — who dig through tax records, travel to the southern border and study the science of climate change — to explain what Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’s positions on several important issues might mean for the country.Their reporting revealed two drastically different trajectories for America.ImmigrationHarris embraced a bipartisan immigration bill that would have funded the border wall, empowered the president to restrict border crossings and modestly expanded legal immigration. She also supports a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.Trump promises a tougher crackdown on immigration than he carried out in his first term. He says he will mount the “largest deportation effort in American history,” using the military and law enforcement to remove millions of undocumented immigrants from the country.Read the full article.Presidential powerHarris hasn’t said anything to suggest she would expand presidential power, though she would likely use executive orders to push through some policies that fail to pass in Congress, as previous presidents have done.Trump, by contrast, wants to concentrate more power in the White House and advertises his authoritarian impulses. He has vowed to use the Justice Department to prosecute his adversaries; to replace tens of thousands of civil servants with loyalists; and to deploy American troops on domestic soil to enforce the law.Read the full article.AbortionHarris has made abortion rights a central part of her candidacy. She has promised to sign a bill re-establishing Roe’s nationwide protection for abortion, and says she supports ending the Senate filibuster to pass that bill.Trump privately expressed his support for a national abortion ban earlier this year, but he later walked back that position and said last month that he would veto a federal ban. He now says he would leave abortion laws to the states.Read the full article.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      ​Despite Trump’s Claim, No Ballots Have Been Found Fraudulent in Lancaster County

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      Details about a continuing investigation revealed by a Republican county commissioner at an election board meeting on Monday undercut claims made by former President Donald J. Trump and others about widespread voter fraud in Lancaster County, Pa.The commissioner, Ray D’Agostino, said that 17 percent of voter registration forms that had been flagged as suspicious there had been found to be “fraudulent,” and that 26 percent of the suspicious forms were still being reviewed.The county would not give the total number of registration forms at issue.But the county was clear that there was no evidence of fraudulent ballots, a fact that stood in stark contrast to a claim made by Mr. Trump at a Sunday rally that “they found 2,600 ballots” — not voter registration forms — “all done by the same hand” in Lancaster County. Mr. Trump’s remarks at the rally, in Lititz, Pa., built on a series of claims that he made last week in speeches and on social media.The episode, which is still under investigation, is quickly becoming central to claims by Trump and his allies that Democrats are trying to steal 19 electoral votes in a crucial battleground state.“They’ve already started cheating in Lancaster,” Mr. Trump said a few days earlier, at a rally in Allentown, Pa.There have been no reports of fraudulent ballots in Lancaster County.A spokesman for the county said that the number of forms at issue was “as many as 2,500” but declined to be more specific.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Brian Bingham, a Veteran, Is Convicted of Assaulting Officer at Capitol Riot

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      Brian Glenn Bingham, of New Jersey, hit an officer in the face as the police tried to clear rioters from the building on Jan. 6, 2021, a jury found.On Monday, the eve of this year’s presidential election, a New Jersey man was convicted of assaulting a law enforcement officer as part of the mob of Donald J. Trump supporters who stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.A jury in Federal District Court in Washington, D.C., found the man, Brian Glenn Bingham, of Pennsville, N.J., guilty of the felony offenses of assaulting, resisting or impeding a police officer and civil disorder, and several misdemeanors, prosecutors said.As part of his defense, court records show, Mr. Bingham argued that his actions were colored by the fact that he had been nearby around the time that a Capitol Police lieutenant fatally shot a woman named Ashli Babbitt as she tried to vault through a window near the House Chamber at the Capitol.Mr. Bingham, a 36-year-old Army veteran, is scheduled to be sentenced in February. Kevin A. Tate, a federal public defender representing him, said Mr. Bingham was “disappointed by the verdict and intends to appeal.”Mr. Bingham is among more than 1,532 people who have been criminally charged in connection with the riot, and among more than 571 who have been charged with assaulting or impeding law enforcement officers, according to the Justice Department. He and other supporters of Mr. Trump stormed the Capitol in a bid to prevent the certification of Joseph R. Biden Jr. as the winner of the 2020 presidential election. The investigation into the day’s events is continuing.Mr. Trump, the Republican nominee in this year’s presidential election, was charged with three conspiracy counts arising from the riot. He has pleaded not guilty, and a federal judge will ultimately determine which parts of the indictment should survive under a landmark Supreme Court ruling from July that gives presidents immunity from prosecution for certain official acts while in office.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Elecciones en Estados Unidos 2024, en vivo: Harris y Trump en su último día de campaña

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      East Lansing, Mich.Erin Schaff/The New York TimesLititz, Pa.Doug Mills/The New York TimesEast Lansing, Mich.Erin Schaff/The New York TimesMacon, Ga.Doug Mills/The New York TimesDetroit, Mich.Nick Hagen for The New York TimesHazle Township, Pa.Eric Lee/The New York TimesDetroit, Mich.Nick Hagen for The New York TimesKinston, N.C.Doug Mills/The New York TimesPontiac, Mich.Emily Elconin for The New York TimesEast Lansing, Mich.Erin Schaff/The New York TimesLititz, Pa.Doug Mills/The New York Times📌 Mañana es el día de las elecciones. Estas son las últimas noticiasLa tumultuosa campaña presidencial de 2024 —en la que el presidente demócrata en funciones se retiró semanas antes de la convención de nominación de su partido y el candidato republicano sobrevivió a dos intentos de asesinato— concluye el lunes en un ambiente de extrema ansiedad e incertidumbre.El expresidente Donald Trump y la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris pasarán la mayor parte de su último día en Pensilvania, el estado de tendencia incierta que, con sus 19 votos electorales, se ha considerado casi desde el principio crítico para ganar la Casa Blanca.Los candidatos embarcarán en sus aviones de campaña bajo la sombra de un aluvión de encuestas finales que dan a entender que la contienda está pareja. El último sondeo del New York Times y el Siena College sobre Pensilvania, publicado el domingo, revela un empate, con el apoyo de ambos candidatos del 48 por ciento de los votantes probables.Para Trump, es una oportunidad de recuperar la Casa Blanca después de haber sido expulsado en 2020, un resultado que intentó anular. Para Harris, es una oportunidad de demostrar sus credenciales políticas después de una campaña inusualmente corta que le dio poco tiempo para ponerse al día y presentarse a los votantes.Trump comenzará el día con un mitin en Carolina del Norte antes de dirigirse a Pensilvania para dos mítines, en Reading y Pittsburgh, y después celebrará su acto final de campaña en Grand Rapids, Michigan, como hizo en 2016 y 2020. Harris está en Pensilvania desde la mañana hasta la noche, con actos en Scranton, Reading, Allentown y Pittsburgh. El mitin final de su campaña es en Filadelfia.Promete ser un final de carrera frenético. Han pasado 720 días desde que Trump anunció que volvería a postularse, 106 días desde que Biden puso fin a su propia campaña y 91 días desde que Harris se aseguró la nominación demócrata.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      U.S. Farmers Brace for New Trump Trade Wars Amid Tariff Threats

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      Despite their concerns, some farm operators still support the former president and prefer his overall economic plan.To former President Donald J. Trump, “tariff” is the most beautiful word in the dictionary.But to farmers in rural America, the blanket import duties that Mr. Trump wants to enact if elected are a nightmare that they would rather not live through again.As president, Mr. Trump imposed tariffs in 2018 and 2019 on $300 billion of Chinese imports, a punishment he wielded in order to get China to negotiate a trade deal with the United States. His action triggered a trade war between Washington and Beijing, with China slapping retaliatory tariffs on American products. It also shifted more of its soybean purchases to Brazil and Argentina, hurting U.S. soybean farmers who had long relied on the Chinese market.When Mr. Trump finally announced a limited trade deal in 2019, American farmers were frazzled and subsisting on subsidies that the Trump administration had handed out to keep them afloat.Now it could happen all over again.“The prospect of additional tariffs doesn’t sound good,” said Leslie Bowman, a corn and soybean farmer from Chambersburg, Pa. “The idea of tariffs is to protect U.S. industries, but for the agricultural industry, it’s going to hurt.”The support of farmers in swing states such as Pennsylvania could be pivotal in determining the outcome of Tuesday’s election. Mr. Trump remains popular in rural America, and voters such as Mr. Bowman say they are weighing a variety of factors as they consider whom to vote for.Mr. Trump has said that if he wins the election he will put tariffs as high as 50 percent on imports from around the world. Tariffs on Chinese imports could be even higher, and some foreign products would face levies upward of 200 percent. Economists have warned that such tariffs could reignite inflation, slow economic growth and harm the industries that Mr. Trump says he wants to help.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      A November Surprise That’s Jostling the Markets

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      The dollar, Treasury yields and crypto currencies have fallen, reversing some elements of the so-called Trump trade after an unexpected poll result. In the race’s final hours, a poll reminds the markets of the power of women voters.Caroline Gutman for The New York TimesDown to the wire Investors on Monday appear to be unwinding bets on the so-called Trump trade. In a major reversal, bonds have rallied and the dollar and crypto currencies have dipped in the race’s final hours.One explanation is a surprising new poll that showed Vice President Kamala Harris, powered in part by support from women and older voters, edging ahead in deep-red Iowa — a finding that’s also led to a tightening of Donald Trump’s lead in political prediction markets.Why the change of heart? The highly regarded Ann Selzer/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll that was published on Saturday gave Harris a three-point advantage over Trump in the Hawkeye State, a Republican stronghold. “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” Selzer said.Some urged caution about the poll. The Economist questioned whether the small sample size in Selzer’s poll made it a good predictor of what might happen in other states. And the Trump campaign pointed to another Iowa poll out this weekend that showed the former president with a 10-point lead over Harris.But Michael McDonald, a politics professor at the University of Florida who runs a vote-tracking site, pointed to similar dynamics in a recent Kansas poll.The Selzer poll has roiled the political betting markets. Following its publication, Trump’s odds of victory fell on platforms including Polymarket, after they had climbed in recent weeks, in tandem with crypto and other elements of the Trump trade.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More