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      Democrats Express Deep Anxiety as Polls Show Biden Trailing Trump

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      President Biden’s team emphasized that polls have failed to predict the results of elections when taken a year ahead of time.White House officials on Sunday shrugged off weekend polling that showed President Biden trailing former President Donald J. Trump, even as Democrats said they were increasingly worried about Mr. Biden’s chances in 2024.The new polling from The New York Times and Siena College found Mr. Biden losing in one-on-one matchups with former President Donald J. Trump in five critical swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead by two percentage points in Wisconsin.Although the polling is worrisome for the president, Mr. Biden still has a year to campaign, which his team emphasized on Sunday. They noted that polls have historically failed to predict the results of elections when taken a year ahead of time.“Gallup predicted an eight-point loss for President Obama only for him to win handily a year later,” said Kevin Munoz, a spokesman for Mr. Biden’s campaign. “We’ll win in 2024 by putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll.”Still, the results of the poll, and other recent surveys showing similar results, are prompting public declarations of doubts by Democrats.David Axelrod, a Democratic strategist who has expressed concerns about Mr. Biden before, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the new polling “will send tremors of doubt” through the party.“Only @JoeBiden can make this decision,” Axelrod wrote, referring to whether the president would drop out of the race. “If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”In a follow-up interview, Mr. Axelrod said he believed Mr. Biden, 80, had achieved a lot during the past three years but was rapidly losing support largely because of concern about how his age affects his performance.“Give me his record and chop 10 to 15 years off, I’d be really confident,” Mr. Axelrod said. “People judge him on his public performance. That’s what people see. That’s where the erosion has been. It lends itself to Republican messaging.”Senator Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program on Sunday that he was concerned “before these polls.”“And I’m concerned now,” he said.“These presidential races over the last couple of terms have been very tight,” he said. “No one is going to have a runaway election here. It’s going to take a lot of hard work, concentration, resources.”Donna Brazile, a former chair of the Democratic National Committee and a supporter of Mr. Biden, said, “don’t count out Joe Biden” on ABC’s “This Week” program. But she added that Democrats should be mindful of the polling from The Times.“I would say a wake-up call once again for Democrats to be reminded that they have to go back out there, pull the coalition that allowed Joe Biden to break new ground in 2020, especially in Arizona and Georgia, but more importantly to bring back that coalition,” she said. “Without that coalition, it’s going to be a very, very difficult race.”Mr. Munoz declined to comment on the specifics of the Times/Siena poll.Julie Chávez Rodríguez, Mr. Biden’s campaign manager, said in a memo released on Friday — before the Times poll was public — that it would be “crucial” for Mr. Biden to show strength among key parts of his coalition in order to win.The weekend poll results, including a 10-point deficit behind Mr. Trump in Nevada, strike at the heart of the argument the president’s campaign advisers have been making for a year: that voters will back Mr. Biden once they are presented with a clear choice between him and his predecessor.In her memo, Ms. Rodríguez said “voters will choose between the extremism, divisiveness and incompetence that extreme MAGA Republicans are demonstrating — and President Biden’s historic record of accomplishment.“The American people are on our side when it comes to that choice,” she wrote.Julie Chávez Rodríguez, Mr. Biden’s campaign manager, left, said in a memo released on Friday that it would be “crucial” for Mr. Biden to show strength among key parts of his coalition in order to win.Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times, via Getty ImagesThe Times polls presented voters with that choice, and many of them, including Democrats, said they would pick Mr. Trump if the election were held today.Already, there were signs that the campaign is scrambling to address the vulnerabilities on display in the poll among young, Black and Hispanic voters.Last month, the campaign quietly started two pilot programs aimed at bolstering support among Democrats in two key states, Arizona and Wisconsin. In each state, the campaign has hired 12 full-time staff members to test their assumptions about how Mr. Biden is viewed by particular groups and what he needs to do to earn their votes.In Arizona, the new staff members in two offices in Maricopa County will focus on Latino and female voters in that state. In Wisconsin, staff members will work out of an office in Milwaukee to evaluate the president’s message for Black and young voters in the state.Campaign officials say the idea is to use the next several months to test new ways of communicating to those voters. Those include the use of “microinfluencers” who are popular on social media platforms, and “relational” campaigning, in which the campaign reaches out to voters through their network of friends rather than impersonal ads.One of the central arguments of the Biden campaign is a belief that polls taken now, by definition, do not take into account the robust campaign that will unfold during the course of the next year.Mr. Biden has already generated a significant campaign war chest. The president and Vice President Kamala Harris have $91 million in cash on hand and are expected to raise hundreds of millions more for use during the general election campaign that will begin in earnest next summer.The president’s campaign aides say they are confident the polls will shift in Mr. Biden’s direction once that money is put to use attacking Mr. Trump (or another Republican, if Mr. Trump loses the nomination) and reaching out to voters.That is similar to the argument that Mr. Axelrod made in September 2011, when Mr. Obama was trailing badly in the polls.“The president remains ahead or in a dead heat with the Republican candidates in the battleground states that will decide the election in 2012,” Mr. Axelrod said at the time. “And ultimately it is in those battleground states where voters will choose, 14 months from now, between two candidates, their records, and their visions for the country.”But Mr. Axelrod said he believed Mr. Biden is further behind now than his candidate was in 2011.He said he believed Mr. Biden would continue to run for re-election, and would likely end up facing Mr. Trump again next year. He urged Mr. Biden and those around him to begin attacking Mr. Trump politically to make it clearer what a Trump victory in 2024 would mean for the country.That kind of “competitive frame” is more important now, Mr. Axelrod said, than trying to tell people about the accomplishments that Mr. Biden has made.“I think he’ll run,” Mr. Axelrod said. “I think he will be the nominee. If so, they need to throw the entire campaign into a very, very tough competitive frame very quickly.” More

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      Trump’s Credibility, Coherence and Control Face Test on Witness Stand

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      The former president will testify Monday in a trial that threatens the business empire that created his public persona. He will be out of his element and under oath.Donald J. Trump took the rally stage on a scorching August day in New Hampshire, a political shark, brazen and sly, as he ridiculed his legal opponents as “racist” and “deranged.”On Monday, the former president will come face-to-face with one of those opponents, but on a stage where he is far less comfortable.New York’s attorney general, Letitia James, will call Mr. Trump to the witness stand at his own civil fraud trial in Manhattan, where, under oath and under fire, the former president will try to convince a single skeptical judge — not a jury — that he did not inflate his net worth to defraud banks and insurers.Attorney General Letitia James has already won the central contention of the case, that the defendants committed fraud.Doug Mills/The New York TimesPrivately, Mr. Trump has told advisers that he is not concerned about his time on the stand. He held preparation sessions when he was in New York attending the trial and will again over the weekend before he makes his appearance after court begins on Monday morning, according to people briefed on the matter.The former president believes he can fight or talk his way out of most situations. Frequent visits to the courtroom have also given Mr. Trump familiarity with the unwieldy proceeding, where he projects control, often whispering in his lawyers’ ears, prompting their objections to the attorney general’s questions.Yet Mr. Trump is deeply, personally enraged by this trial — and by the fact that his children have had to testify, several people who have spoken with him said — and he may not be able to restrain himself on the stand.The testimony will push Mr. Trump far outside his comfort zone of social media and the rally stage, where he is a master of mockery, a no-holds barred flamethrower who relishes most opportunities to attack foes. He leveraged that persona during his days as a tabloid businessman and fixture of New York’s tabloids and found that it worked just as well in the 2016 presidential race. He has since taken control of the Republican Party, and his style has become a defining influence in contemporary politics.The witness stand is a different venue. It’s a seat that requires care and control, where lying is a crime and emotional outbursts can land you in contempt of court. Another risk during his time on the stand: Mr. Trump, 77, has been showing signs of strain and age on the campaign trail, mixing up the names of foreign leaders and at one point confusing which city he was in.The test of the former president’s credibility, coherence and self-control could supply his opponents with ammunition on the campaign trail, where Mr. Trump is the leading Republican contender for the White House.Along with the civil fraud trial, Mr. Trump faces four criminal indictments from prosecutors up and down the East Coast. While the varied legal woes present a costly distraction in the midst of his third White House run, Mr. Trump has managed to bring the campaign trail to the courthouse, where he casts himself as a political martyr under attack from Democrats like Ms. James.Mr. Trump, of course, is no stranger to the courtroom. He has taken the witness stand in at least two other civil trials, most recently a decade ago, in a Chicago case related to his property there. He was cranky and sometimes combative, but ultimately won.Justice Arthur F. Engoron has barred the former president from commenting on court staff and fined him $15,000.Dave Sanders for The New York TimesDuring a long and litigious career, he has also testified under oath in numerous depositions — more than 100 by his own estimate — and he has made it something of a sport to spar with his interrogators. His spontaneity under oath may have cost him: He has lost several lawsuits, and his depositions have often been used against him.A trial is far weightier than a deposition, and it takes place in a more controlled environment. Mr. Trump’s lawyers have long highlighted for him the perils of speaking under oath to those seeking to hold him to account. Mr. Trump, eschewing his instinct to talk and bully his way out of a problem, has chosen silence when the legal stakes are highest.He declined to appear before a Manhattan grand jury that ultimately indicted him on charges related to a hush-money deal with a porn star. He rejected an interview with a special counsel investigating his campaign’s ties to Russia, submitting written responses instead. And he initially invoked his right against self-incrimination rather than answer Ms. James’s questions about his net worth.He eventually had a change of heart in the attorney general’s case, answering questions under oath in a deposition this spring. Although he could have continued to invoke his constitutional right not to testify, he had a strong incentive to talk: In a civil case, a jury or judge is allowed to draw negative conclusions from a defendant’s refusal to testify. Doing so would have almost certainly spelled doom for his defense and further exposed him to the harshest of the penalties that Ms. James is asking for, including a $250 million fine.Still, his testimony at trial is unlikely to do him much good.Mr. Trump got off on the wrong foot with the judge, Arthur F. Engoron, who will decide the outcome of the trial. Justice Engoron barred the former president from commenting on court staff after Mr. Trump criticized the judge’s law clerk, and already fined him $15,000 for twice violating the order.At one point, Justice Engoron summoned Mr. Trump to the witness stand to determine whether he had broken the rule. After three minutes, the judge concluded the former president’s statements in his own defense were “hollow and untrue.”Even before the trial, the judge ruled that the former president had persistently committed fraud. What is left to be determined is any penalty Mr. Trump might have to pay and whether he will be banished from the world of New York real estate that made him famous.At the heart of Ms. James’s case is the accusation that Mr. Trump, his adult sons and their family business manipulated the former president’s net worth on annual financial statements. Mr. Trump’s company, the Trump Organization, submitted the statements to banks, duping them into issuing favorable loans, Ms. James says.Last week, Mr. Trump’s elder sons, Eric and Donald Trump Jr., took the stand, seeking to shift blame for the financial statements onto others, including the company’s external accountants.When Donald Trump Jr. was shown a message he had sent to the accountants that certified that the statements were accurate, he referred to it dismissively as a “cover-your-butt letter.”And Eric Trump was defiant when asked whether he had intended to tell lenders the truth about the value of the family’s assets. He certainly had, he said, adding, “I think my father’s net worth is far higher than that number.”Eric Trump, the former president’s son, was among three of his children who will testify in the case.Hiroko Masuike/The New York TimesThe former president’s testimony is expected to follow the pattern set out in his deposition in April: He is likely to insist that there was a disclaimer on the financial statements — which he refers to as a “worthless” clause — that made it clear that banks should do their own due diligence. He will also probably cling to the principle that real estate valuations are an art, not a science.“Many lawyers have come to me and said, ‘You have the greatest worthless clause I’ve ever seen,’” Mr. Trump said in the deposition. “‘How can they be using this statement against you?’”Mr. Trump’s obsession with his wealth is a defining feature of his celebrity. He once posed as one of his own aides to claim a higher net worth to a Forbes magazine reporter helping assemble the publication’s famous annual list of the wealthy, according to the reporter who took the call.He used the image of an enormously rich titan of industry — despite a relatively small portfolio compared with New York’s largest developers — to sell his book “The Art of the Deal” in 1987. That ghostwritten portrait was the basis for putting Mr. Trump on the reality television show “The Apprentice,” which enhanced his fame and forged a durable national identity that propelled his run for president in 2015.The questions he’ll face on the stand threaten the heart of that identity.But this is not the first case to tackle Mr. Trump’s exaggerations of wealth. In 2006, Mr. Trump sued the journalist Timothy L. O’Brien for writing a book that cast doubt on his net worth, and in a deposition, Mr. Trump made damaging admissions, including that his net worth “can vary actually from day to day,” and that he determined it by gauging “my general attitude at the time.”“Have you ever exaggerated in statements about your properties?” Mr. O’Brien’s lawyer asked him.“I think everyone does,” Mr. Trump replied.A judge later dismissed Mr. Trump’s lawsuit. More

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      Kim Reynolds, Iowa’s Influential Governor, Expected to Endorse DeSantis

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      The move is a big win for the Florida governor — and a snub to Donald Trump — just months before the Iowa caucuses.Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa is expected to endorse Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida in the Republican presidential primary on Monday, throwing her significant clout in the state behind him as he tries to make up ground against former President Donald J. Trump before the state’s caucuses in January.The endorsement is set to take place at a DeSantis campaign rally in Des Moines Monday evening that both governors will attend, according to three people familiar with the plans. The rally has been announced, but the endorsement has not, outside of media reports.The endorsement was first reported by The Des Moines Register and NBC News.Ms. Reynolds, who is very popular with Republicans in her state, is also chair of the Republican Governors Association. It is unusual for sitting governors to weigh in on the caucuses — the first Republican presidential nominating contest — before they take place, and she had previously said that she would stay neutral.But Ms. Reynolds is one of the few governors with whom Mr. DeSantis has had a true bond in recent years, with the two aligned on matters related to policy on Covid and abortion, among other things. Her interest in his candidacy has been clear for months, including to Mr. Trump, who criticized her for not falling in line behind him.People who have spoken with Ms. Reynolds say she has had some frustrations with the DeSantis campaign’s stumbles. But she is enraged with Mr. Trump, who has twice attacked her personally, according to those people.Some of Ms. Reynolds’s advisers had cautioned her against wading into the race, according to two people familiar with the discussions, suggesting it was a heavily lopsided risk-reward calculation given Mr. Trump’s dominant lead in the polls — and his penchant for vindictiveness. But she decided in the end it was worth it.Mr. Trump criticized Ms. Reynolds earlier this year after growing frustrated by her public appearances with Mr. DeSantis. Later, he lashed out again, saying he didn’t invite her to his events. While Ms. Reynolds stayed silent after those incidents, she did respond on social media when Mr. Trump criticized the kind of restrictive abortion legislation that both she and Mr. DeSantis have signed into law.Mr. DeSantis has pointedly defended Ms. Reynolds from those attacks, calling her “one of the best governors in the country.”“I think that Donald Trump’s attacks on Kim Reynolds are totally out of bounds,” he told reporters at the Iowa State Fair this summer. “I couldn’t disagree with it any more. And she’s done really nothing but do a great job. She’s never done anything to him. But that’s just how he operates.”The endorsement comes ahead of the third presidential debate on Wednesday in Miami, where Mr. DeSantis will try to both close ground on Mr. Trump and separate himself from Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and former United Nations ambassador who was tied with him in Iowa in the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll in the state.The DeSantis campaign declined to comment, and a spokesman for Ms. Reynolds did not respond to multiple requests for comment.Earlier in the year, Mr. Trump’s team, in private discussions, seemed to be in denial about the fact that Ms. Reynolds and Mr. DeSantis had a unique relationship, and that an endorsement might be in the offing. But that changed as Ms. Reynolds appeared with Mr. DeSantis in the state, and there was some overlap between her team and the super PAC supporting Mr. DeSantis.So for months, Mr. Trump’s team has been girding for a potential Reynolds endorsement of Mr. DeSantis, particularly as Mr. DeSantis has suggested she might be a vice-presidential candidate on his ticket.Mr. Trump turned to his Truth Social platform to respond to media reports about the endorsement, calling Ms. Reynolds “disloyal” for siding with Mr. DeSantis.“If and when Kim Reynolds of Iowa endorses Ron DeSanctimonious, who is absolutely dying in the polls both in Iowa and Nationwide, it will be the end of her political career in that MAGA would never support her again, just as MAGA will never support DeSanctimonious again.” He added, “They can now remain loyal to each other because nobody else wants them!!!”Ms. Reynolds is deeply protective of her state, and some close to her believed she would be unlikely to endorse Mr. DeSantis unless his campaign showed signs of progress. The decision to endorse would appear to be a sign that Ms. Reynolds thinks she can make a meaningful difference. Historically, the Iowa caucuses have been volatile affairs with significant movement as the voting draws near.Mr. DeSantis has increasingly banked his entire candidacy on a strong showing in Iowa, having moved a sizable share of his staff to the state.Crossing Mr. Trump could be perilous for Ms. Reynolds, despite her popularity. In August, after the former president had begun attacking her, Ms. Reynolds appeared alongside Mr. DeSantis at a sprint car race outside Des Moines.The crowd booed both governors. More

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      Student and Teacher, Moving Up Together

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      More from our inbox:Trump LackeysDon’t Call Them ‘Conservative’Precious Views: Saving the Skyline of New York Katy FreemanTo the Editor:Re “Kids Benefit From Having One Teacher Twice,” by Adam Grant (Opinion guest essay, Oct. 24):Dr. Grant is right on target on the value of “looping” for kids and teachers who stay with them for a grade or more. In my dissertation research on middle-school teacher teams, I found that the most effective team was one that followed the same group of students for three years.As the teachers explained, when they had students for just one year, they could blame the shortcomings of students on their previous teachers. After three years, they knew they should be able to show significant results for all their kids.One other advantage of looping was creating a more cohesive professional community; after a couple of years away from a particular grade’s curriculum, teachers reached out to colleagues to learn from their more recent experience with that grade.A win-win for everyone, and especially the students whom teachers never gave up on and built strong relations with over these years.Rick GordonJackson, Wyo.The writer was the founding director of the Compass School in Vermont.To the Editor:Adam Grant’s advocacy for “looping” in education is a compelling invitation to deepen teacher-student relationships and nurture personalized learning. But as a high school junior, I find myself grappling with this idea.Although looping’s promise is enticing, I’m concerned that it might inadvertently constrain students’ ability to adapt, leaving us ill prepared for our future.High school has been an essential stage of transformation for me, marked by an ever-shifting landscape of diverse experiences, teaching styles and perspectives. I’m concerned that looping, which emphasizes a personalized relationship with a single teacher, may curtail the range of experiences essential for nurturing adaptability.This quality, vital for future success in both college and the work force, is arguably honed through adapting to various teaching styles and methods that diverse teachers bring. In an era that demands versatile skills, we should recognize the value of a variety of experiences in education.Taiki YamauchiAlexandria, Va.To the Editor:As an elementary-school teacher who did “loop” a kindergarten to first-grade class, I agree with Adam Grant in his praise for the practice. Knowing where your students left off and where you could begin was a big improvement over the mystery that would commonly occur with a new class.In addition to the benefit to academics, there were the friendships that could continue in the classroom as well as the improved insights between teacher and student.Another benefit was the communication between the parents and me. Having their child for two years enabled us to immediately pursue common goals and solve problems much more easily than starting fresh.Parents can be asked for their preference concerning looping, so if there’s not a good fit for the child, the parent can opt out. I remember that out of 20 students, 19 remained in my next class. The parent who opted out came to me at the end of the year to tell me she’d made a mistake!Some children would be OK with another teacher. But for others, looping meant a great deal and perhaps enabled them to succeed more than they might have without the teacher’s extra knowledge of the students.Daina SchumanStamford, Conn.Trump LackeysTop Trump allies, including Russell Vought, seated in the middle, have come to view the Republican Party’s legal elites — even leaders with impeccable conservative credentials — as out of step.Andrew Harnik/Associated PressTo the Editor:Re “Seeking Lawyers to Bless Trump’s Full Ambition” (front page, Nov. 2):In his first term as president, Donald Trump made, from his point of view, several key mistakes. Among them was selecting well-known conservatives with at least some experience and gravitas for important positions in his administration.The problem with these people was that they had at least a shred of decency and, ultimately, respect for the law and the Constitution. They, and others in his administration, refused in the end to execute his orders when those orders clearly violated the law.He won’t make that mistake again. As this article reveals, a second-term Trump cabinet, and the rest of his administration, would be filled with inexperienced sycophants whose only qualifications are their total loyalty to him alone and their willingness to do anything he says, illegal or not.Mr. Trump’s presidency was by far the worst in our history. A second Trump term, supported by these carefully chosen lackeys, would be nightmarish.Tim ShawCambridge, Mass.Don’t Call Them ‘Conservative’ Mark Peterson/Redux, for The New York TimesTo the Editor:Re “The Roots of Republican Dysfunction,” by Jamelle Bouie (column, Oct. 22):The MAGA supporters who call themselves “conservative” yet supported the Big Lie are not conservative. Overthrowing a legitimate election and installing a strongman you like is radical; it is not the least bit conservative.I wish America had a real conservative party, which would serve a legitimate purpose in balancing the urges of us liberals. But nobody should be allowed to impose authoritarianism on fellow citizens and call it “conservative.” That is radical extremism.Brett LindenbachNorth Haven, Conn.Precious Views: Saving the Skyline of New York George Etheredge for The New York TimesTo the Editor:Re “Regulate the Skyline? What’s Your View?,” by Michael Kimmelman (Critic’s Notebook, Oct. 26):Fifty years ago, when I was young, the Empire State Building could be seen from almost everywhere. It was, in the words of John Milton, “the cynosure of neighboring eyes.” Now, as Mr. Kimmelman writes, a uniquely unobstructed view can be glimpsed from an alley he found off 28th Street.“The alley framed a postcard view of the Empire State Building,” he writes, “magically” preserving something lost elsewhere in the city, as widespread new construction has blotted out views, “occasionally breaking hearts.”The Landmarks Preservation Commission designated the Empire State Building a landmark. But operating under existing law, the agency could not protect the view corridors nearby.Old photographs will tell us something about what the Empire State Building once was. But will the historic preservation movement offer any strong strategic criticism of the planning policy vacuum Mr. Kimmelman’s criticism reveals? Who else will now defend the public interest in preserving views of our distinctive local architecture?Christabel GoughHudson, N.Y.To the Editor:We fall deeply in love with our favorite views and hope they will never change. But, like people, views have life spans. I have mourned several lost cityscapes in recent years, but learned a valuable lesson in the process: Hold back your tears until the new building is revealed.The Copper building on First Avenue near 35th Street took away the span of open sky that had delighted me for years with its unobstructed sunrises. But the quirky K-shaped Copper now serves as a compelling centerpiece for my sky photography. The sunrises are as splendid as ever, and there is a bonus: The Copper reflects the setting sun, lush with light as its colors fade to black.On the other hand, I am angry to hear that a precious Manhattan view will no longer exist. Sign me up to support view cones. If the Empire State Building can be eclipsed, what will be next?Roberta HershensonNew York More

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      Why Biden Is Behind, and How He Could Come Back

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      A polling deficit against Trump across six key states is mainly about younger, nonwhite and less engaged voters. Kamala Harris performs slightly better.Four years ago, Joe Biden was the electability candidate — the broadly appealing, moderate Democrat from Scranton who promised to win the white working-class voters who elected Donald J. Trump.There are few signs of that electoral strength today. More

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      Trump Now Leads Biden

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      An analysis of a new set of New York Times / Siena College polls. When Joe Biden ran for president four years ago, he ran as the electability candidate — a broadly appealing, moderate Democrat from Scranton, Pa., who could defeat Donald Trump.There aren’t many signs of his old electoral strength in a new set of New York Times/Siena College polls of the six states likely to decide the presidency. Trump leads Biden in five of the six states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Michigan — which would likely be enough to give him the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Biden leads in the sixth state, Wisconsin.Trump leads by at least four percentage points in each of the other five states:New York Times/Siena College pollsThe striking results seem to be more a reflection of Biden’s weakness than Trump’s strength. Trump is just as unpopular as he was when he lost the election three years ago, if not slightly more so.Instead, the change is the public’s view of Biden. During his time in office, attitudes toward him have turned decidedly negative. In the last election, voters judged him to be more likable than Trump, to have a better temperament and to have a more appealing personality. Those advantages have largely disappeared.Instead, voters say they are concerned about Biden’s handling of the economy and about his age. More than 70 percent of registered voters in the battlegrounds agree with the statement that Biden is “just too old to be an effective president,” up from around 30 percent in the run-up to the last election.Biden appears to be especially weak among young, Black and Hispanic voters. In a major departure from recent electoral trends, he and Trump are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-old voters, even though young voters have tended to back Democrats by a wide margin in recent cycles.Among Black voters, more than 90 percent of whom usually back Democrats, Biden leads only 71-22. He holds only 50 percent of Hispanic voters across the battlegrounds, down from more than 60 percent in the last cycle.A year to goWith one year to go until the election, there’s still plenty of time for the race to change. In contrast with four years ago, the poll finds a disengaged, disaffected and dissatisfied electorate, setting the stage for a potentially volatile campaign. And historically, incumbent presidents have trailed at this stage of the race, only to rally their former supporters once the campaign is underway.If there’s good news for Biden, it’s that his path to re-election runs through traditionally Democratic constituencies, like young, Black and Hispanic voters. The poll suggests that these voters remain open to supporting a Democrat against Trump. It’s still possible that a polarizing campaign — focused on issues like abortion and democracy, which divide the electorate along familiar and favorable lines for Biden — will allow him to reassemble and re-energize the coalition of voters who brought him to the White House.Nonetheless, the poll suggests that Biden’s path will be challenging. Nearly half of registered voters (49 percent) in the battleground states say there’s “almost no chance” they’ll support him, an indication of the depth of their dissatisfaction.At this early stage, I’m not sure how seriously to take traditionally Democratic-leaning voters who say there’s “almost no chance” they’ll back Mr. Biden. As the race gets going, attitudes might change quickly. But one year out, Biden faces big challenges to his re-election.For more: If you’re interested in a deeper look, you can read my full analysis — including the potentially decisive role of voters who say they would vote for Kamala Harris, but not Biden. And here is my colleague Shane Goldmacher’s news article on the polls.NEWSIsrael-Hamas WarIn the West Bank.Jonathan Ernst/ReutersAntony Blinken, the secretary of state, made an unannounced visit to the West Bank to meet with the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas.Thousands of demonstrators in Tel Aviv called on the Israeli government to do more to rescue hostages in Gaza.Israel used at least two 2,000-pound bombs — the second-largest in its arsenal — in its airstrikes on Jabaliya, according to experts and Times analysis.A Biden administration official accused Hamas of delaying efforts to get foreign nationals out of Gaza by trying to put its wounded fighters on departure lists.Wrecked buildings and long lines of infantry: A Times reporter was among a small group of journalists who accompanied Israeli military leaders into northern Gaza.Politics“Like winning the lottery”: Conservative Christians are celebrating the unexpected rise of Mike Johnson, the House speaker.The F.B.I. is investigating whether Eric Adams, New York City’s mayor, received disguised foreign campaign contributions.InternationalUkrainians are becoming increasingly pessimistic about a quick victory, polls say.A campaign to legalize divorce in the Philippines argues that it’s an issue of basic human rights.Nuns tackled and gave chase to climate protesters in France, in an escalation of a long-running clash over a proposed megachurch.Other Big StoriesA special delivery.Callaghan O’Hare for The New York TimesA decade after it began talking about deliveries by drone, Amazon is finally making some. Customers are underwhelmed.The actors’ union said it was reviewing a final offer by Hollywood studios to resolve a monthslong strike.Workers in San Francisco have almost finished installing more than three miles of steel netting along the Golden Gate Bridge. Officials call it a “suicide deterrent system.”FROM OPINIONGov. Glenn Youngkin’s brand of conservatism in Virginia has an optimism that other Republicans lack, Michelle Cottle writes.The U.S. needs open communication with Russia and China to prevent another nuclear arms race, The Times’s editorial board writes.Here’s a column by Ross Douthat on liberal academia.The Sunday question: Could regulation have prevented Sam Bankman-Fried’s fraud?The former crypto billionaire’s conviction is a cautionary tale that shows “regulation is better than criminal law at preventing harm,” Bloomberg’s Noah Feldman writes. But while regulation might have stopped Bankman-Fried from embezzling funds, it can’t “prevent someone who believes they’re uncatchable from doing wrong,” Ana Paula Pereira writes for Cointelegraph.MORNING READSIn the Shetland Islands.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesWool week: Every year, knitters from around the world descend on a far-flung Scottish archipelago.Fall back: Many Americans bemoan the end of daylight saving time. Meet the ones who love it.Vows: As they supported each other through health crises, their relationship — and a “love plant” — flourished.Lives Lived: David Kirke was a flamboyant thrill-seeker who performed what is widely acknowledged as the first modern bungee jump. He died at 78. TALK | FROM THE TIMES MAGAZINECal Newport Mamadi Doumbouya for The New York TimesBack in January, I spoke with the computer scientist, podcaster and author Cal Newport about why the digital workplace can be such a drag.When I mentioned to a few folks that I was talking to you and that you wrote about work and technology, every one of them said they had problems focusing in front of their computers. So for people who can’t help cycling through their open tabs every five minutes, what’s your biggest piece of advice?The critical mind-set shift is understanding that even minor context shifts are productivity poison. We used to multitask, and then research came out and said you can’t literally multitask. Your brain can’t have your inbox open next to the memo you’re writing while you’re also on the phone. So if you have to work on something that’s cognitively demanding, the rule has to be zero context shifts during that period.You’re working on a book about slow productivity. What is that?Traditional economic productivity largely requires people working toward a singular measurable output with a transparent process. None of that works in knowledge work. So we fell back to a proxy for productivity, which is visible activity. If I can see you doing work, it’s better than I can’t see you doing work. Slow productivity is all about identifying alternatives.Isn’t a large part of the reason that so many of us feel a need to look busy that our bosses require it?So the term “knowledge work” was coined in 1959 by Peter Drucker in “Landmarks of Tomorrow.” Drucker is saying that knowledge workers need to manage themselves. Managers just need to set them up to succeed. But then what do you manage? Visible activity as a proxy for productivity was the solution. But what’s tricky about it is that a manager can’t just change. We’re kind of in a mess that we can’t change on a dime.Read more of the interview here.More from the magazineFor people in Bilozerka, Ukraine, the ​Russian invasion began a cat-and-mouse game of collaboration and resistance.If childhood obesity is an “epidemic,” how far should doctors go to treat it? Should bariatric surgery be an option?Read the full issue.BOOKSMarguerite HigginsYuichi Ishizaki/Associated PressNot invited: In “Fierce Ambition,” Jennet Conant recounts how the superstar war reporter Marguerite Higgins worked hard, late and dirty to thrive in a world rigged against women.Our editors’ picks: “Mapping the Darkness,” about the turbulent history of sleep science, and eight other books.Times best sellers: “The Woman in Me,” Britney Spears’s memoir, takes the top spot in its debut week on the hardcover nonfiction list.THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …Open your curtains by tapping an app or talking to a smart speaker.Invest in a quality pen.See Southern California beyond the freeway.THE WEEK AHEADWhat to Watch ForThe New York City Marathon is today. Follow the race here.Donald Trump is expected to testify tomorrow in New York’s civil fraud case against him.China and the U.S. finish their weekend climate talks tomorrow.State and local U.S. elections are on Tuesday.What to Cook This WeekChristopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.In her Five Weeknight Dishes newsletter, Emily Weinstein suggests making meatballs, her go-to comfort food. Other ideas: one-pot chicken and rice with ginger and crisp gnocchi with brussels sprouts.NOW TIME TO PLAYHere is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was bookmobile.Can you put eight historical events — including the first known sundials, Mayan team sports and Morgan Freeman’s breakthrough role — in chronological order? Take this week’s Flashback quiz.And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. 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      Trump Leads Biden in Nearly Every Battleground State, New Poll Finds

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      Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of three to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found.Trump Is Ahead in Five of Six Swing StatesMargins are calculated using unrounded figures. More

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      DeSantis and Trump Bring Their Campaign Battle Home to Florida

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      At a state party summit, Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald J. Trump both argued that Florida was their turf. For the crowd, Mr. Trump’s assertion seemed to ring truer.When Gov. Ron DeSantis took the stage at a state Republican Party event in Kissimmee, Fla., on Saturday, he strode in front of a giant screen that proclaimed “Florida Is DeSantis Country.”Hours later, when it was former President Donald J. Trump’s turn, the backdrop instead broadcast a forceful rebuttal: “Florida Is Trump Country.”Both men were well received. But by the end of the night, Mr. Trump’s slogan rang truer.During his speech, Mr. Trump, the front-runner in the Republican presidential primary, aggressively attacked Mr. DeSantis, who once seemed like his most formidable rival. He called Mr. DeSantis names and described him as weak and disloyal to a crowd that laughed at a popular governor who once appeared infallible in his home state.Yet Mr. DeSantis had not even mentioned the former president in his own speech, even after questioning Mr. Trump’s manhood on a conservative news network this week. Instead, he shied away from his recent outspokenness against his rival and returned to the veiled swipes that characterized the race’s early months.Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis have circled each other on the campaign trail for months but have rarely appeared on the same stage. Saturday’s event, the Florida Freedom Summit, brought their political tussle into full view.It also emphasized a dynamic that has become one of Mr. DeSantis’s largest political hurdles. Even as his rivalry with Mr. Trump has defined the Republican primary for months, the former president’s grip on the party has not loosened, while Mr. DeSantis has been losing ground.Mr. DeSantis’s reluctance to single out Mr. Trump on Saturday was all the more striking because the other candidates who spoke throughout the day were willing to do so.Vivek Ramaswamy, 38, said he was better positioned than Mr. Trump to reach younger voters. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina said that Republicans had underperformed in multiple elections under Mr. Trump’s leadership.Mr. Scott also took aim at Mr. DeSantis’s campaign, saying that the governor had entered the race as a “historically strong candidate with all the advantages” but had drastically bled support.Mr. DeSantis’s falling stature was made evident earlier in the day when six Republican state lawmakers said that they would shift their endorsements from Mr. DeSantis to Mr. Trump, a move first reported by The Messenger.The defections came days after Senator Rick Scott of Florida, Mr. DeSantis’s predecessor with whom he has a frosty relationship, said that he would back Mr. Trump.Mr. DeSantis dismissed the significance of the legislators’ about-face.“Look, this happens in these things,” he told reporters on Saturday after signing the paperwork to file for the Florida primary. “We’ve had flips the other way in other states. It’s a dynamic thing. I mean, politicians do what they’re going to do.”But Mr. Trump made a point of bringing his new supporters onstage early in his speech, emphasizing how he was chipping away at Mr. DeSantis’s core base.He also portrayed Mr. DeSantis as having desperately sought his endorsement in 2018, saying that Mr. DeSantis had come to him with “tears flowing from his eyes,” and took credit for his political rise. Mr. Trump has made such attacks a mainstay of his stump speech.“It’s so disloyal,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. DeSantis’s decision to enter the 2024 race. And voters, he said, “care about loyalty.” The crowd whooped in affirmation.The crowd seemed to be on Mr. DeSantis’s side only when Mr. Trump discussed the coronavirus pandemic. As he rattled off the states whose Republican governors he believed best handled Covid-19, he conspicuously left out one.Members of the crowd filled in the blank: “Florida,” they shouted. Mr. Trump simply smirked and shrugged.During his time onstage earlier in the afternoon, Mr. DeSantis at times appeared to be operating within an alternate reality. He did not acknowledge Mr. Trump’s position in the race. His claim that Florida is “DeSantis Country” — certainly accurate when he won re-election by nearly 20 percentage points last year — ignored polling averages that show Mr. Trump 35 points ahead of him in the state.And while Mr. DeSantis opened his speech by joking that he did not need a teleprompter, a jab at President Biden, he frequently looked down at his notes as he spoke.Mr. Trump’s hold on Republicans in Florida was evident at the summit. The audience responded with booming cheers as he rattled off his accomplishments and attacked Mr. Biden. No other candidate received such resounding support.Mark Spowage, 73, said he had considered Mr. DeSantis a Republican “golden boy” after he received Mr. Trump’s endorsement as governor. But his opinion of Mr. DeSantis plummeted when he announced that he was challenging Mr. Trump — a shift shared by many of Mr. Trump’s loyal followers.“How does he think he has the right to do that?” Mr. Spowage, a software engineer, asked of Mr. DeSantis. “Because from my position, Trump was ordained, like someone that God has anointed to somehow take responsibility. For him to stand up to Trump, wow.”Many Republicans in the state have been privately whispering that Mr. DeSantis seems weaker at home than ever before, and Mr. Trump’s allies have said they are recruiting more defectors.Mr. DeSantis is now regularly ridiculed by his onetime ally, Mr. Trump. Memes poke fun at his unfortunate moments on the campaign trail, includinga controversy over whether Mr. DeSantis wears lifts in his boots. (He says he does not.)A spokesman for Mr. DeSantis’s campaign pointed out that he still has many more endorsements from state legislators in Florida, as well as in New Hampshire and Iowa, the first nominating states.Mr. Trump, however, remains widely popular with voters in those states. And though Mr. DeSantis has staked his campaign on a strong showing in Iowa, a recent survey found him tied there with Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina. She has edged him out in polls in New Hampshire as well.Ms. Haley was originally scheduled to speak at Saturday’s summit but did not attend. Her campaign did not answer questions about her absence.Mr. Trump will again try to overshadow Mr. DeSantis on Wednesday, when the governor and other G.O.P. rivals take part in the third Republican debate in Miami. The former president, who has announced that he will instead hold a rally in Hialeah, Fla., is skipping the debate once again, a decision Mr. DeSantis sharply criticized earlier this week but did not mention on Saturday.“If Donald Trump can summon the balls to show up to the debate, I’ll wear a boot on my head,” Mr. DeSantis said in an interview on Newsmax on Thursday.But the crowd at the summit was clearly in no mood to hear any digs at the former president, and candidates who criticized Mr. Trump were heckled. When former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas said that he believed Mr. Trump would probably be found guilty in one of the criminal cases he was facing, the boos were ferocious.And Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey who has become an outspoken Trump critic, was jeered immediately after he took the stage.Mr. Christie was not dissuaded, firing back at the crowd, “Your anger against the truth is reprehensible.”Jazmine Ulloa More