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The Republicans Who Could Qualify for the First Presidential Debate
At least seven candidates appear to have made the cut so far for the first Republican presidential debate on Aug. 23. Trump(may not attend) Trump(may not attend) The latest polling and fund-raising data show that the playing field is narrowing for the Republican presidential debate scheduled for later this month. Although former President Donald J. […] More
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Matt DePerno, Trump Meddler in Michigan, Is Charged in Election Breach
A key figure in a multistate effort to overturn the 2020 election, Mr. DePerno lost his race for Michigan attorney general in 2022. He later finished second to lead the state’s Republican Party.Matthew DePerno, a key orchestrator of efforts to help former President Donald J. Trump try to overturn the 2020 election in Michigan and an unsuccessful candidate for state attorney general last year, was arraigned on four felony charges on Tuesday, according to documents released by D.J. Hilson, the special prosecutor handling the investigation.The charges against Mr. DePerno, which include undue possession of a voting machine and a conspiracy to gain unauthorized access to a computer or computer system, come after a nearly yearlong investigation in one of the battleground states that cemented the election of Joseph R. Biden Jr. as president.Former State Representative Daire Rendon was also charged with two crimes, including a conspiracy to illegally obtain a voting machine and false pretenses.Both Mr. DePerno and Ms. Rendon were arraigned remotely on Tuesday before Chief Judge Jeffery Matis, according to Richard Lynch, the court administrator for Oakland County’s Sixth Circuit, and remained free on bond.The charges were first reported by The Detroit News.Mr. DePerno denied any wrongdoing and said that his efforts “uncovered significant security flaws” in a statement from his lawyer, Paul Stablein.“He maintains his innocence and firmly believes that these charges are not based upon any actual truth and are motivated primarily by politics rather than evidence,” Mr. Stablein said.The criminal inquiry in Michigan has largely been overshadowed by developments in Georgia, where a grand jury is weighing charges against Mr. Trump for trying to subvert the election, but both are part of the ongoing reckoning over the conspiracy theories about election machines promoted by Mr. Trump and his allies.The efforts to legitimize the falsehoods and conspiracy theories promoted widely by Mr. Trump and his allies continued long after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol and after Mr. Biden took office. In Arizona, such efforts included the discredited election audit of Maricopa County led by Republicans in the state legislature.In a statement, Mr. Hilson said, “Although our office made no recommendations to the grand jury as to whether an indictment should be issued or not, we support the grand jury’s decision and we will prosecute each of the cases as they have directed in the sole interests of justice.”Dana Nessel, Michigan’s attorney general and a Democrat who went on to defeat Mr. DePerno in the November election, has not been involved in the investigation since the appointment of a special prosecutor in August last year. In a statement on Tuesday, Ms. Nessel said that the allegations “caused undeniable harm to our democracy” and issued a warning for the future.“The 2024 presidential election will soon be upon us. The lies espoused by attorneys involved in this matter, and those who worked in concert with them across the nation, wreaked havoc and sowed distrust within our democratic institutions and processes,” Ms. Nessel said. “We hope for swift justice in the courts.”The charges stemmed from a bizarre plot hatched by a group of conservative activists in early 2021 to pick apart voting machines in at least three Michigan counties, in some cases taking them to hotels and Airbnb rentals as they hunted for evidence of election fraud.In the weeks after the 2020 election, he drew widespread attention and the admiration of Mr. Trump when he filed a lawsuit challenging the vote tallies in Antrim County, a rural area in Northern Michigan where a minor clerical error fueled conspiracy theories.He falsely claimed that voting machines there had been rigged, a premise that was rejected as “idiotic” by William P. Barr, an attorney general under Mr. Trump, and “demonstrably false” by Republicans in the Michigan Senate.Mr. Hilson, the prosecutor in Muskegon County appointed as special prosecutor, had initially delayed bringing charges, asking a state judge to determine whether it was against state law to take possession of a voting machine without the secretary of state’s permission or a court order. A judge determined last month that doing so was against the law, clearing the way for charges.Democrats swept the governor’s race and other statewide contests last fall, in addition to flipping the full Legislature for the first time in decades. Mr. DePerno, who was endorsed by Mr. Trump, lost the attorney general’s race by eight percentage points.This year, Mr. DePerno had been a front-runner to lead the Michigan Republican Party after its disappointing showing in last year’s midterm election, but he finished second to another election-denier: Kristina Karamo.In his campaign to lead the G.O.P. in Michigan, Mr. DePerno had vowed to pack the party’s leadership ranks with Trump loyalists, close primaries to just Republicans and ratchet up the distribution of absentee ballot applications to party members — despite what he said was lingering opposition to voting by mail within the party’s ranks.His candidacy was supported by Mike Lindell, the MyPillow chief executive who has spread conspiracy theories about election fraud and appeared at a fund-raising reception for Mr. DePerno in Lansing on the night before the chairmanship vote.Mr. DePerno lost to Ms. Karamo after three rounds of balloting at the state party convention, a process that was slowed for several hours by the use of paper ballots and hand counting.Danny Hakim More
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¿Dónde está Melania Trump y qué papel tendrá en la campaña de 2024?
Mientras su marido busca regresar a la Casa Blanca y se enfrenta a un riesgo legal cada vez mayor, la ex primera dama ha decidido mantenerse fuera del ojo público.Desde que salió de la Casa Blanca, el mundo de Melania Trump se ha hecho más pequeño.Tal como a ella le gusta.Resguardada tras las puertas cerradas de sus tres casas, su mundo se limita a un pequeño círculo: su hijo, sus padres ya mayores y un puñado de viejos amigos. Visita a sus peluqueros, consulta a Hervé Pierre, su estilista de toda la vida, y a veces se reúne con su marido para cenar los viernes por la noche en sus clubes. Pero su objetivo máximo es una campaña personal: ayudar a su hijo Barron, de 17 años, en su búsqueda de universidad.Lo que no ha hecho, a pesar de las invitaciones de su marido, es aparecer en la campaña electoral. Tampoco ha estado a su lado en ninguna de sus comparecencias ante los tribunales.Así pasa los días Melania Trump, ex primera dama, actual cónyuge de un candidato en campaña y esposa de una de las figuras más divisorias de la vida pública estadounidense. A diferencia de sus predecesoras, no hay planes para una gira de conferencias, un libro o una gran expansión de sus actividades de beneficencia, la mayoría de las cuales, dicen personas cercanas a los Trump, no son del todo visibles para el público. En su vida después de ser primera dama, quiere lo que no pudo conseguir en la Casa Blanca: una sensación de privacidad.Esos intentos de retirarse de la vida pública se han visto obstaculizados por su marido, que la ha convertido de nuevo en la esposa de un candidato. Mientras Donald Trump se enfrenta a una posible tercera acusación formal, ella ha guardado un silencio inquebrantable sobre su creciente riesgo judicial.Aunque apoya su candidatura presidencial, Melania Trump no se ha dejado ver en público desde que Trump anunció su campaña en noviembre y no fue sino hasta mayo que habló de eso, cuando manifestó su apoyo en una entrevista con Fox News Digital.“Tiene mi apoyo y esperamos devolver la esperanza por el futuro y gobernar Estados Unidos con amor y fortaleza”, declaró.Su ausencia marca una notable diferencia con el inicio de la primera campaña de Trump, cuando Melania Trump, con un vestido blanco sin tirantes, descendió por la escalera mecánica dorada delante de su marido en el arranque de su campaña en la Torre Trump.Melania Trump mantiene el contacto y la amistad con un reducido grupo de personas de su época en la Casa Blanca, entre ellas la diseñadora Rachel Roy y Hilary Geary Ross, la destacada relacionista de Palm Beach y esposa de Wilbur L. Ross, ex secretario de Comercio de Trump. Sigue muy unida a sus padres, que tienen un apartamento en la Torre Trump de Manhattan y han sido vistos en eventos de Trump en Mar-a-Lago, el club privado y residencia de los Trump.“Desde su punto de vista y el de sus amigos, ha pasado por muchas cosas, que la han convertido en una mujer fuerte e independiente”, dijo R. Couri Hay, publicista que conoció a Melania Trump en Nueva York antes de que se fuera a Washington. “Ha aprendido a cerrar puertas y persianas y a permanecer en privado. No vemos mucho, no oímos mucho”.Melania Trump declinó una solicitud de entrevista. Este relato se basa en una decena de entrevistas con asociados, ayudantes de campaña y amigos, la mayoría de los cuales hablaron bajo condición de anonimato porque no estaban autorizados a discutir los detalles privados de su vida.Personas cercanas a la familia afirman que la falta de apoyo público de Melania Trump no debe confundirse con desaprobación o indiferencia. Ella sigue defendiendo a su marido y comparte su creencia de que su familia está siendo atacada injustamente. Desconfía mucho de los principales medios de comunicación y es una ávida lectora del Daily Mail en internet, en el que sigue la cobertura de Trump que hace el tabloide conservador británico.Melania Trump muestra un particular escepticismo ante el caso de E. Jean Carroll, quien obtuvo 5 millones de dólares por daños y perjuicios en un juicio en el que acusó a Trump de abusos sexuales en la década de 1990 y de difamación después de que dejara la Casa Blanca, según dos personas familiarizadas con sus declaraciones. Cuando Melania Trump vio la cobertura de la declaración de su marido en el caso, se enfureció con su equipo legal por no haber hecho más para plantear objeciones. También ha cuestionado en privado por qué Carroll no podía recordar la fecha exacta de la supuesta agresión.A pesar de ello, Melania Trump cree que, a pesar de los riesgos judiciales, Trump podría regresar a la Casa Blanca el año próximo. En privado, ha mostrado curiosidad por Casey DeSantis, la esposa de Ron DeSantis, el gobernador de Florida y principal rival de Trump. Casey DeSantis es una asesora cercana de su marido, una presencia habitual en sus eventos y ha empezado a aparecer por su cuenta en actos de campaña a favor de él. En una de sus escasas entrevistas, Melania Trump reflexionó en Fox News sobre la posibilidad de volver a ser primera dama y afirmó que, de tener una segunda oportunidad en el cargo, “priorizaría el bienestar y el desarrollo de los niños”.Melania Trump ha mostrado curiosidad en privado por Casey DeSantis, quien ha pasado tiempo haciendo campaña junto a su marido, Ron DeSantis.Rachel Mummey para The New York TimesPero aún no le ha dado prioridad a la campaña. Aunque se ha mostrado dispuesta a participar en eventos para su marido el año que viene, hasta ahora ha rechazado sus invitaciones a los actos de campaña.“No creo que vaya a ser nada parecido a lo que hemos visto con Casey DeSantis”, dijo Stephanie Grisham, una exasistente de Trump que renunció el 6 de enero. “No va a dejarse ver en jeans ni a caminar en desfiles”.Kellyanne Conway, asesora de Trump desde hace años y cercana a Melania Trump, dijo que la ex primera dama apoya “por completo” la candidatura de su marido y seguía siendo su “consejera de mayor confianza y más transparente”. Comentó que el matrimonio ha discutido en privado las “prioridades” de un segundo mandato.“Conozco pocas personas tan seguras de sí mismas como Melania Trump”, dijo Conway, quien no trabaja para la campaña. “Ella sabe quién es y mantiene sus prioridades bajo control. Melania los mantiene a la expectativa y siguen interpretándola mal”.Ese aire de misterio se extiende a las comunidades cerradas de los clubes de su esposo. En Palm Beach, Melania Trump no forma parte del circuito social, afirmó Lore Smith, una agente de bienes raíces de Palm Beach desde hace mucho tiempo, la cual visita con frecuencia el club.A diferencia de sus predecesoras modernas, que asistían a clases de gimnasia o de spinning, a Melania Trump no se le ve en el gimnasio y no se tiene información de que tenga un entrenador, según otros asiduos del club y exayudantes. Durante mucho tiempo ha sido fanática de los días que pasa en el spa, pero casi nunca se le ve afuera en la piscina en Mar-a-Lago o Bedminster, el campo de golf y resort de Trump en Nueva Jersey. De vez en cuando, hace breves apariciones en eventos de caridad en Mar-a-Lago junto a su esposo.“Son muy reservados detrás de los confines de Mar-a-Lago”, dijo Smith.Melania Trump no forma parte del circuito social en Mar-a-Lago, el club privado de su esposo. Se dice que prefiere Nueva York.Saul Martinez para The New York TimesMelania Trump sigue muy involucrada con la educación de Barron. Su hijo está inscrito en una escuela privada en West Palm Beach y está empezando a buscar universidades en Nueva York.Se dice que Melania Trump prefiere la ciudad a Mar-a-Lago o Bedminster. Se le ha visto yendo a su peluquero y entrando y saliendo de la Torre Trump, lo cual hace a través de una entrada lateral especial y un ascensor privado.Fuera de las residencias familiares, la agenda pública de Melania Trump ha sido limitada. Ha participado en un puñado de eventos, incluida la recaudación de 500.000 dólares en tarifas el año pasado de Log Cabin Republicans, un grupo conservador que apoya los derechos de la comunidad LGBT, y Fix California, una organización electoral fundada por Richard Grenell, ex alto funcionario del gobierno de Trump. Grenell se negó a comentar sobre la aparición de la ex primera dama en los eventos.En febrero de 2022, Melania Trump inició “Fostering the Future”, un programa de becas para niños de acogida que ya están a punto de cumplir la edad máxima para pertenecer al sistema. Una persona familiarizada con el programa, que habló bajo condición de anonimato, no ofreció detalles ni reveló cuántas becas se otorgaron, y solo afirmó que fueron “más de dos”. No existe ninguna organización benéfica con el nombre “Fostering the Future” o “Be Best” registrada en Florida o Nueva York.Michael Weitzman, el primer beneficiario de una de las becas, dijo que recibió financiación durante cuatro años en la Universidad Oral Roberts a través de un mentor, que conocía a un amigo relacionado con los Trump. “Me preguntó si ir a la universidad todavía era un sueño para mí”, contó Weitzman, quien pasó su infancia viviendo en 12 hogares de acogida. “Dijo que podría conocer a alguien realmente rico que podría querer pagar para que yo fuera”.Weitzman no llenó ningún tipo de solicitud, pero un día después de que el mentor le planteó la idea, recibió un correo electrónico del equipo de relaciones públicas de Melania Trump, preguntándole si estaba dispuesto a participar en una entrevista de Fox News con la ex primera dama, la primera desde que dejó la Casa Blanca. La beca se anunció durante la entrevista de mayo de 2022, con la participación de Weitzman a través de Zoom. Weitzman, de 26 años, dijo que no había tenido ninguna interacción con Melania Trump desde entonces.“No la he conocido en persona. A menudo me preguntaba si lo haría y me encantaría”, dijo. “Estoy más que agradecido. No hay ninguna razón por la que alguien tendría que haber hecho esto por mí”.Los asistentes de Melania Trump se negaron a discutir los detalles de sus planes de campaña, sus emprendimientos benéficos y comerciales y sus puntos de vista sobre los problemas legales de su esposo. Los voceros de la campaña de Donald Trump se negaron a comentar.Melania Trump y Barron Trump asistieron al lanzamiento de la campaña de Donald Trump en noviembre. Desde entonces, la ex primera dama ha dicho poco sobre la campaña de su esposo para la Casa Blanca.Andrew Harnik/Associated PressEn muchos sentidos, la vida de Melania Trump posterior a la Casa Blanca es una extensión de su estilo como primera dama.Desde el comienzo del mandato de su esposo, cuando no se mudó de inmediato a la Casa Blanca, Melania Trump constantemente vaciló entre dos extremos: aceptar de lleno su papel o desafiar todas las expectativas asociadas con él.Uno de sus momentos más memorables se realizó a través de una declaración de moda. Cuando regresaba de una visita a un pueblo fronterizo de Texas para encontrarse con niños migrantes detenidos, vistió una chaqueta estampada con la frase: “Realmente no me importa. ¿Y a ti?Gran parte de su experiencia en la Casa Blanca estuvo marcada por lo que personas cercanas a ella describieron como decepción y traición por parte de amigos, ayudantes e incluso miembros de la familia Trump. En ocasiones, su relación con Ivanka Trump y Jared Kushner, la hija y el yerno de Trump, fue tensa, según exasesores. Desde entonces, su exsecretaria de prensa, Grisham, y una exayudante y amiga, Stephanie Winston Wolkoff, han escrito libros reveladores que la describen como fría y desconectada de su cargo.Esas experiencias empujaron a Melania Trump a ocultarse aún más del ojo público, aseguraron personas vinculadas con la familia.Melania Trump es “la primera dama más francamente desconocida”, dijo la autora de un libro sobre el tema. “Hay algo radical en ello”.Doug Mills/The New York TimesPero esa privacidad puede ser difícil de mantener bajo el escrutinio de unas contenciosas primarias presidenciales y las investigaciones legales.Recientemente, Chris Christie criticó a ambos Trump por un pago de 155.000 dólares a Melania Trump de parte de un comité de acción política alineado con la campaña de su esposo. Un representante del comité dijo que Melania Trump fue contratada en 2021 para “consultoría de diseño”, incluida la elección de vajillas, distribución de asientos y arreglos florales.“Existe la estafa y luego existe la estafa al estilo de los Trump”, escribió Christie, el exgobernador de Nueva Jersey y el crítico más abierto de Trump en el campo de las primarias republicanas de 2024, en Twitter. “Son los campeones indiscutibles”.La mayor parte de su perfil público, realizado casi siempre a través de sus cuentas de redes sociales, se centra en la venta de una variedad de cromos virtuales. Sus NFT, o tokens no fungibles, incluyen dibujos digitales de sus ojos, un sombrero de ala ancha que usó durante una visita de estado, adornos navideños de la Casa Blanca y una rosa azul destinada a conmemorar el Mes Nacional del Programa de Acogida.La mayoría de sus tuits y publicaciones de Instagram promocionan directamente los NFT o una empresa llamada USA Memorabilia, que los vende. Un día después de que su esposo anunciara en su red social, Truth Social, que había recibido una notificación de la investigación federal sobre sus esfuerzos para frustrar la transferencia de poder en 2020, el único comentario público de Melania Trump fue el anuncio de una nueva colección de NFT: “Hombre en la Luna”.Una parte de sus ganancias se destina a donaciones, aunque sus asistentes no proporcionaron detalles sobre la cantidad ni especificaron a qué organización benéfica.Si bien las primeras damas a menudo sacan provecho de la fama que viene con el cargo, la empresa lucrativa de Trump es diferente de la de sus predecesores, dijo Kate Andersen Brower, autora del libro First Women: The Grace and Power of America’s Modern First Ladies.Según los informes, a Michelle Obama se le pagó más de 60 millones de dólares en un acuerdo de libro conjunto con su esposo, además de recibir cientos de miles de dólares por discursos y firmar un lucrativo acuerdo de producción con Netflix. Laura Bush y Hillary Clinton también vendieron sus memorias por millones. Sus memorias y discursos pagados requerían que las ex primeras damas compartieran algunos detalles sobre sí mismas, sus puntos de vista y sus vidas en la Casa Blanca.Simplemente vendiendo imágenes, Melania Trump no tiene que revelar nada.Eso es exactamente lo que prefiere, dijo Brower.“Ella es la primera dama más francamente desconocida”, dijo sobre la personalidad pública de Melania Trump. “Hay algo radical al respecto. Se espera que las primeras damas quieran complacer a la gente y no estoy seguro de que eso a ella realmente le importe”.Maggie Haberman More
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Biden and Trump Are Tied in a Possible 2024 Rematch, Poll Finds
A Times/Siena poll suggests a slight Biden edge among voters who don’t like either candidate.Will they stick with the same candidates in 2024?Tamir Kalifa for The New York TimesAfter Democrats fared well against MAGA candidates in the midterms last year, it might have been reasonable to think that President Biden would have a clear advantage in a rematch against Donald J. Trump.Yet despite the stop-the-steal movement, the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and the numerous investigations facing Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are still tied, each at 43 percent, among registered voters in our first Times/Siena poll of the 2024 election cycle.The possibility that criminal indictments haven’t crippled Mr. Trump’s general election chances might come as a surprise or even a shock, but the result is worth taking seriously. It does not seem to be a fluke: Our Times/Siena polls last fall — which were notably accurate — also showed a very close race in a possible presidential rematch, including a one-point lead for Mr. Trump among registered voters in our final October survey.Mr. Trump’s resilience is not necessarily an indication of his strength. In most respects, he appears to be a badly wounded general election candidate. Just 41 percent of registered voters say they have a favorable view of him, while a majority believe he committed serious federal crimes and say his conduct after the last election went so far that it threatened American democracy.But Mr. Biden shows little strength of his own. His favorability rating is only two points higher than Mr. Trump’s. And despite an improving economy, his approval rating is only 39 percent — a mere two points higher than it was in our poll in October, before the midterm election. At least for now, he seems unable to capitalize on his opponent’s profound vulnerability.Democrats can’t necessarily assume the race will snap back into a clear Biden lead once people tune into the race, either. The 14 percent of voters who didn’t back Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump consisted mostly of people who volunteered — even though it wasn’t provided as an option in the poll — that they would vote for someone else or simply wouldn’t vote if those were the candidates. They know the candidates; they just don’t want either of them.As I mentioned to my colleague David Leonhardt for The Morning newsletter, it’s reasonable to believe that Mr. Biden has the better path to winning over more of these voters. They dislike Mr. Trump more than they dislike Mr. Biden, and the political environment, including promising economic news, seems increasingly favorable to Mr. Biden. But it hasn’t happened yet.And the upside for Mr. Biden among the dissenting 14 percent of voters isn’t necessarily as great as it might look. He leads by a mere two points — 47 percent to 45 percent — if we reassign these voters to Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden based on how they say they voted in the 2020 election. And Mr. Biden still leads by two points, 49-47, if we further restrict the poll to those who actually voted in 2020 or 2022.A two-point edge is certainly better for Mr. Biden than a tie, but it’s not exactly a commanding advantage. It’s closer than his 4.5-point popular vote win in 2020, and it’s well within a range in which Mr. Trump can win in the key battleground states, where he has usually done better than he has nationwide.The survey suggests that the electorate remains deeply divided along the demographic fault lines of the 2020 presidential election, with Mr. Trump commanding a wide lead among white voters without a college degree, while Mr. Biden counters with an advantage among nonwhite voters and white college graduates.To the extent the survey suggests a slightly closer race than four years ago, it appears mostly attributable to modest Trump gains among Black, Hispanic, male and low-income voters. The sample sizes of these subgroups are relatively small, but we’ve seen signs of Trump strength among these groups before. In some cases, like Hispanic and lower-income voters, they’re groups that have already trended toward Republicans during the Trump era. It would hardly be a surprise if those trends continued. Here again, it’s a story worth taking seriously.Of course, this doesn’t mean it’s “predictive” of the final result, certainly not with 15 months to go. What it means, however, is that Mr. Trump doesn’t appear to have sustained disqualifying damage — at least when matched against a president with a 39 percent approval rating. For now, it suggests that the Biden campaign can’t necessarily count on anti-Trump sentiment alone; it may need to do some work to reassemble and mobilize a winning coalition. More
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A Closer Look at the Registered Voters Who Don’t Support Biden or Trump
Looking more closely at the registered voters who don’t support Biden or Trump.The first Times poll of the 2024 election cycle shows a dead heat between President Biden and Donald Trump. If those two men are the presidential nominees next year, 43 percent of registered voters say they will support Biden, and 43 percent say they will back Trump.But 43 plus 43 obviously does not equal 100. There are also 14 percent of registered voters who declined to choose either candidate. Some of them said that they would not vote next year. Others said they would support a third-party candidate. Still others declined to answer the poll question.You can think of this 14 percent as the Neither of the Above voters, at least for now. In the end, a significant number of them probably will vote for Biden or Trump and go a long way toward determining who occupies the White House in 2025.In today’s newsletter, I will profile this Neither of the Above — or NOTA — group, with help from charts by my colleague Ashley Wu.Unhappy with TrumpPerhaps the most notable characteristic of NOTA voters is that they are highly critical of Trump. By definition, they are also unenthusiastic about Biden. But they are considerably less happy with Trump:Favorability of Biden vs. TrumpShare of respondents with a very or somewhat favorable opinion of each candidate More
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Biden Shores Up Democratic Support, but Faces Tight Race Against Trump
A New York Times/Siena College poll found that President Biden is on stronger footing than he was a year ago — but he is neck-and-neck in a possible rematch against Donald Trump.President Biden is heading into the 2024 presidential contest on firmer footing than a year ago, with his approval rating inching upward and once-doubtful Democrats falling into line behind his re-election bid, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.Mr. Biden appears to have escaped the political danger zone he resided in last year, when nearly two-thirds of his party wanted a different nominee. Now, Democrats have broadly accepted him as their standard-bearer, even if half would prefer someone else.Still, warning signs abound for the president: Despite his improved standing and a friendlier national environment, Mr. Biden remains broadly unpopular among a voting public that is pessimistic about the country’s future, and his approval rating is a mere 39 percent.Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Mr. Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald J. Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments and more potential charges on the horizon. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to the poll.Mr. Biden has been buoyed by voters’ feelings of fear and distaste toward Mr. Trump. Well over a year before the election, 16 percent of those polled had unfavorable views of both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, a segment with which Mr. Biden had a narrow lead.John Wittman, 42, a heating and air conditioning contractor in Phoenix, is a Republican but said he would vote for Mr. Biden if former President Donald J. Trump were the Republican nominee. Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York Times“Donald Trump is not a Republican, he’s a criminal,” said John Wittman, 42, a heating and air conditioning contractor from Phoenix. A Republican, he said that even though he believed Mr. Biden’s economic stewardship had hurt the country, “I will vote for anyone on the planet that seems halfway capable of doing the job, including Joe Biden, over Donald Trump.”To borrow an old political cliché, the poll shows that Mr. Biden’s support among Democrats is a mile wide and an inch deep. About 30 percent of voters who said they planned to vote for Mr. Biden in November 2024 said they hoped Democrats would nominate someone else. Just 20 percent of Democrats said they would be enthusiastic if Mr. Biden were the party’s 2024 presidential nominee; another 51 percent said they would be satisfied but not enthusiastic.A higher share of Democrats, 26 percent, expressed enthusiasm for the notion of Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee in 2024.Mr. Biden had the backing of 64 percent of Democrats who planned to participate in their party’s primary, an indicator of soft support for an incumbent president. Thirteen percent preferred Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 10 percent chose Marianne Williamson.Among Democratic poll respondents who have a record of voting in a primary before, Mr. Biden enjoyed a far wider lead — 74 percent to 8 percent. He was ahead by 92 percent to 4 percent among those who voted in a Democratic primary in 2022.The lack of fervor about Mr. Biden helps explain the relatively weak showing among small donors in a quarterly fund-raising report his campaign released two weeks ago.A common view toward Mr. Biden is illustrated in voters like Melody Marquess, 54, a retiree and left-leaning independent from Tyler, Texas. Ms. Marquess, who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 as “the lesser of two evils,” was not happy about his handling of the pandemic, blaming him for inflation and a tight labor market. Still, she said she would again vote for Mr. Biden, who is 80 years old, over Mr. Trump, who is 77.“I’m sorry, but both of them, to me, are too old,” she said. “Joe Biden to me seems less mentally capable, age-wise. But Trump is just evil. He’s done horrible things.”More Democrats Support Biden As Nominee Than a Year AgoDemocrats who think their party should renominate Joseph R. Biden in 2024 More
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More Republicans Say Trump Committed Crimes. But They Still Support Him.
The share of Republicans saying the former president has committed “serious federal crimes” has grown modestly, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.Donald J. Trump famously marveled during his first presidential campaign that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and he would not lose any support.He now seems intent on testing the premise of unwavering loyalty behind that statement.The federal charges against the former president seem to have cost him few, if any, votes in the 2024 election, even as the number of Republicans who think he has committed serious federal crimes has ticked up.He continues to hold strong in a hypothetical general election matchup, despite the fact that 17 percent of voters who prefer him over President Biden think either that he has committed serious federal crimes or that he threatened democracy with his actions after the 2020 election, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll.“I think he’s committed crimes,” said Joseph Derito, 81, of Elmira, N.Y. “I think he’s done terrible things. But he’s also done a lot of good.”Despite his distaste for the former president, Mr. Derito said he was likely to vote for Mr. Trump again. The alternative, he said, is far less palatable.“I used to lean toward the Democratic Party because they were for the working middle class,” he said. Now, he added, “I don’t like Trump, but I like the Democrats a lot less.”Voter Attitudes About the Trump InvestigationsThinking about the investigations into Donald J. Trump, do you think that he has or has not committed any serious federal crimes? More
