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      Prosecutors in Jan. 6 Case Step up Inquiry Into Trump Fund-Raising

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      The Justice Department has been gathering evidence about whether the former president and his allies solicited donations with claims of election fraud they knew to be false.As they investigate former President Donald J. Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, federal prosecutors have also been drilling down on whether Mr. Trump and a range of political aides knew that he had lost the race but still raised money off claims that they were fighting widespread fraud in the vote results, according to three people familiar with the matter.Led by the special counsel Jack Smith, prosecutors are trying to determine whether Mr. Trump and his aides violated federal wire fraud statutes as they raised as much as $250 million through a political action committee by saying they needed the money to fight to reverse election fraud even though they had been told repeatedly that there was no evidence to back up those fraud claims.The prosecutors are looking at the inner workings of the committee, Save America PAC, and at the Trump campaign’s efforts to prove its baseless case that Mr. Trump had been cheated out of victory.In the past several months, prosecutors have issued multiple batches of subpoenas in a wide-ranging effort to understand Save America, which was set up shortly after the election as Mr. Trump’s main fund-raising entity. An initial round of subpoenas, which started going out before Mr. Trump declared his candidacy in the 2024 race and Mr. Smith was appointed by Attorney General Merrick B. Garland in November, focused on various Republican officials and vendors that had received payments from Save America.But more recently, investigators have homed in on the activities of a joint fund-raising committee made up of staff members from the 2020 Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee, among others. Some of the subpoenas have sought documents from around Election Day 2020 up the present.Prosecutors have been heavily focused on details of the campaign’s finances, spending and fund-raising, such as who was approving email solicitations that were blasted out to lists of possible small donors and what they knew about the truth of the fraud claims, according to the people familiar with their work. All three areas overlap, and could inform prosecutors’ thinking about whether to proceed with charges in an investigation in which witnesses are still being interviewed.The possibility that the fund-raising efforts might have been criminally fraudulent was first raised last year by the House select committee investigating Mr. Trump’s efforts to retain power.But the Justice Department, with its ability to bring criminal charges, has been able to prompt more extensive cooperation from a number of witnesses. And prosecutors have developed more information than the House committee did, having targeted communications between Trump campaign aides and other Republican officials to determine if a barrage of fund-raising solicitations sent out after the election were knowingly misleading, according to the three people familiar with the matter.The fund-raising efforts are just one focus of Mr. Smith’s investigation into Mr. Trump’s attempts to reverse his loss at the polls.Led by the special counsel Jack Smith, prosecutors are trying to determine whether Mr. Trump and his aides violated federal wire fraud statutes.Peter Dejong/Associated PressProsecutors have also been examining the plan to assemble alternate slates of pro-Trump electors from swing states won by Joseph R. Biden Jr., and the broader push by Mr. Trump to block or delay congressional certification of Mr. Biden’s Electoral College victory on Jan. 6, 2021, leading to the storming of the Capitol by Trump supporters.On Thursday, former Vice President Mike Pence, a key witness to Mr. Trump’s efforts, testified for hours to the grand jury gathering evidence in the investigation.Prosecutors have been looking at the nexus between research the Trump campaign commissioned almost immediately after the election to try to prove widespread fraud, public statements that he and his allies made at the time, the fund-raising efforts and the establishment of Save America.The Washington Post reported earlier on the efforts by the campaign to fund research into claims of fraud and the new round of subpoenas.Mr. Trump’s team may argue that the fund-raising represented political speech with solicitations that were generally vague, and that subjecting it to a criminal process could raise First Amendment issues and create a slippery slope for future candidates. Political fund-raising materials often engage in bombast or exaggeration.Republicans may also argue that Democrats have been loose in claims they have used in fund-raising solicitations. And the Trump campaign may argue that it did in fact use the funds to try to investigate fraud.Jason Miller, an adviser to Mr. Trump who worked on the 2020 campaign, said that the “Deep State is ramping up their attacks on President Trump” as his poll numbers have increased. “The ‘political police’ have been pushing their witch hunt since President Trump came down the escalator, and they’ve been proven wrong every single time,” he added.Officials with the Republican National Committee declined to comment.Immediately after the election, an adviser to the Trump campaign reached out to Ken Block, the owner of a Rhode Island-based firm, Simpatico Software Systems, to have him evaluate specific allegations of fraud.Jason Miller, a former top Trump aide, appearing on a screen last year during a hearing of the House committee investigating the Capitol riot. Doug Mills/The New York TimesMr. Block ended up researching multiple claims of possible fraud that Mr. Trump’s aides brought to him. He never produced a final report. But each time he investigated a claim, he said in an interview, he found there was nothing to it.Mr. Block said he had disproved “everything that came in and found no substantive fraud sufficient to overturn an election result.” He said he was isolated from what was taking place within the campaign, as Mr. Trump railed at aides about staying in office and continued to insist he had won an election that he was repeatedly told he had lost.“I was kept very walled off from all of the insanity,” said Mr. Block, whose firm was paid $735,000, records show. He received a subpoena for documents, but declined in the interview to discuss anything related to the grand jury.Days after starting to work with Mr. Block and Simpatico, the Trump campaign hired a second firm, the Berkeley Research Group. The federal grand jury has received evidence that Berkeley was hired at the suggestion of Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, who was overseeing the political operation.The grand jury has been asking questions related to whether Mr. Trump was briefed on findings by Berkeley suggesting there had been no widespread fraud.The company ultimately submitted a report indicating there had been no fraud that would have changed the outcome of the election, and was paid roughly $600,000 for its work. The company was hired through a law firm that has long represented Mr. Trump in his personal capacity, Kasowitz Benson Torres, although lawyers there were not involved in pursuing Mr. Trump’s election fraud claims, according to a person briefed on the matter.A deputy counsel for Berkeley Research Group said the company has a “no comment” policy and declined to discuss the matter further.During the House Jan. 6 committee’s proceedings last year, several people close to Mr. Trump testified that they had informed him that there had been no fraud sufficient to change the outcome of the voting.Within two weeks of the election, the Trump campaign’s own communications staff drafted an internal report debunking many aspects of a conspiracy theory that voting machines made by Dominion Voting Systems had been hacked and used to flip votes away from Mr. Trump. That report was written before pro-Trump lawyers like Sidney Powell and Rudolph W. Giuliani promoted the false Dominion story at news conferences and on television.As part of its investigation into the Trump campaign’s postelection fund-raising, the Jan. 6 panel subpoenaed records from Salesforce.com, a vendor that helped the campaign and the Republican National Committee send emails to potential donors. The R.N.C. fought back, filing a lawsuit to quash the subpoena, and the House committee ultimately withdrew it.In the latest round of subpoenas, federal prosecutors have sought documents related to Salesforce in addition to other vendors, according to a person briefed on the matter. More

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      Campaign, Interrupted: Pence May Run, but He Can’t Hide From Trump’s Legal Woes

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      The former vice president faces many challenges in his potential presidential run, perhaps none bigger than his complicated relationship with his old boss.Former Vice President Mike Pence, seemingly in his element as he addressed a gathering of evangelical Christians in Iowa this month, was speaking of “the greatest honor of my life,” serving in “an administration that turned this country around” by rebuilding the military, securing the southern border, and unleashing “American energy.”“But most importantly, most of all,” he said, building to a crescendo — but at the moment he was about to claim some credit for his administration’s success in overturning the right to an abortion, a booming voice came over the loudspeaker from the sound booth: “Check, check, testing, 1-2-3.”It was a small interruption, but one that exemplified the diversions Mr. Pence continues to face as he considers a run for the Republican presidential nomination against the man who was once his greatest benefactor, but also his cruelest tormentor: Donald J. Trump.On Thursday, however, Mr. Pence faced a much more onerous and grueling intrusion into his potential campaign, and one that he had hoped to avoid, when he was forced to testify for more than five hours before a grand jury in Washington about Mr. Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Those efforts put Mr. Pence’s life at risk on Jan. 6, 2021, as a mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol, chanting “Hang Mike Pence.”Mr. Pence, the would-be candidate with unassailable religious convictions who spent four years a heartbeat away from the presidency, cannot seem to find the space to present those credentials to sympathetic Republican primary voters without interruption — and, in this case, on the biggest stage before a campaign has even begun.After Thursday’s testimony, a highly unusual event involving two of the most prominent U.S. public officials during a nascent presidential campaign in which both are likely to run, he is in the odd and uncomfortable position of being both a potential challenger to his former boss and possibly a key witness for his prosecution.Mr. Pence knows that core voters in the Republican base are in no mood to give such legal proceedings against Mr. Trump, including the current civil suit accusing him of rape and defamation, much credence. Paula Livingston, of Council Bluffs, Iowa, waved off the cases pending against Mr. Trump as “all the same, they’re out to stop him.”Nor is Mr. Trump showing any signs of contrition. On Thursday, while campaigning in New Hampshire, the former president embraced a supporter who had served prison time for her actions during the Capitol attack of Jan. 6, and called her “terrific,” even though she said she wants Mr. Pence executed for treason.But after the former vice president’s efforts to quash the Justice Department’s subpoena for his testimony failed, Mr. Pence had little choice but to lend his voice to the federal prosecution.Former President Donald J. Trump spoke at a campaign event in Manchester, N.H., on April 27. Sophie Park for The New York TimesThe Pence camp is now working to put that testimony within the broader rubric of his potential presidential run: Conservative truth teller. Pence loyalists would like Mr. Pence to be getting more credit for the Trump administration’s successes, especially for helping to choose the nominees that tilted the Supreme Court to the right.But Mr. Pence has to play the hand that he has been dealt, and right now that includes testifying against Mr. Trump.“I don’t know if he has to dislodge” Mr. Trump, Marc Short, a former chief of staff to the vice president, said. “He has to remind voters who he is.”Over his 12 years in Congress, as governor of Indiana and in the Trump White House, Mr. Pence was “the consistent conservative,” Mr. Short said, working for a man who was anything but consistent: “That’s an important contrast for him to draw,” Mr. Short said.A Republican close to the former vice president, who requested anonymity in order to discuss internal deliberations, explained on Friday that Mr. Pence has long stuck with conservative constitutional principles, even when that has meant standing up to his party.As a House member, he chastised the administration of President George W. Bush for its failure to adhere to fiscal discipline as federal budget surpluses turned to large deficits. He has embraced changes to Social Security and Medicare that would trim benefits in the name of balancing the budget, changes that Mr. Trump has loudly rejected.He continues to publicly make the case for U.S. military aid to Ukraine, even as some Republican lawmakers and many Republican voters turn against it. He has said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s fight with the Walt Disney Company over social policy has strayed, and become a violation of the Republican Party’s bedrock belief in free enterprise.And he leaned on constitutional arguments, first to avoid the subpoena of federal prosecutors investigating efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and now to comply with it. Earlier this year Mr. Pence argued that the Constitution’s “speech or debate” clause, intended to protect the separation of powers between the three branches of government, shielded him from having to speak of Mr. Trump’s campaign to pressure him not to certify the election results in his ceremonial role as vice president.When that failed, he complied with the subpoena rather than search for another rationale for delay, such as the “executive privilege” claims that have been repeatedly rejected.Mr. Pence, in his recent book “So Help Me God,” described in detail Mr. Trump’s efforts to pressure him into blocking congressional certification of President Biden’s victory. Mr. Trump became preoccupied with the idea that Mr. Pence could do something, though Mr. Pence’s chief lawyer had concluded that there was no legal authority for him to act on Mr. Trump’s behalf.But people close to Mr. Pence said that just as he argued that he had to fulfill his constitutional duty on Jan. 6, 2021, he invoked that same Constitution the following day to reject overtures from Democratic leaders to use the Constitution’s 25th amendment to remove Mr. Trump from office.Aides to Mr. Pence showed little worry this week as the former vice president continues his deliberations about a run. Mr. Pence’s attitude, they said, is simple: Let the chips fall where they may.“He feels remarkably blessed to have been able to serve the American people in the roles he has had,” Mr. Short said, “and he hopes to continue that service.” More

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      Florida Lawmakers Clear a Potential Presidential Roadblock for DeSantis

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      The Florida Legislature passed an elections bill on Friday clarifying that Gov. Ron DeSantis would not have to resign early if he ran for president.Gov. Ron DeSantis has gotten just about everything he wanted out of Florida’s legislative session, which draws to a close next week.A six-week ban on abortion. The ability for Floridians to carry concealed weapons without a permit or training. An expansion of school vouchers. All laws that Mr. DeSantis could lean on heavily in a potential Republican primary for president.Now the governor’s legislative allies in Tallahassee have delivered another boon, one that is procedural but just as important: an elections bill that eliminates a potential roadblock to Mr. DeSantis declaring his candidacy for president, which he is expected to do next month. The law will ensure that Mr. DeSantis does not have to resign the governorship early if he runs for president.On Friday, the State House of Representatives approved the law with a 76-34 vote along strict party lines, with nine lawmakers abstaining. Having already been approved by the State Senate, it now heads to Mr. DeSantis’s desk.The previous provision in state law, known as the “resign-to-run” statute, could have posed a problem for Mr. DeSantis’s presidential ambitions.Although legal opinions varied, it might have compelled Mr. DeSantis, if he became a presidential candidate, to resign as governor in 2025 with two years still left in his term. The new bill cleared up any ambiguity by stating that the law does not apply to elected officials running specifically for president and vice president, meaning Mr. DeSantis can make a bid for the White House without the prospect of giving up the governor’s office should he lose the 2024 Republican primary or general election.Allies have been urging Mr. DeSantis to formally jump into the 2024 race, seeing it as the only way to deal with former President Donald J. Trump, the Republican front-runner.Sophie Park for The New York Times“I can’t think of a better training ground than the state of Florida for a future potential commander in chief,” State Representative Tyler I. Sirois, a Merritt Island Republican, said on the House floor.Republicans said they wanted to leave no ambiguity in the law and argued that presidential and vice-presidential candidates are different than others seeking elective office because they are chosen by political parties in national conventions — instead of having to simply qualify for the ballot. Democrats countered that Mr. DeSantis was getting special treatment from his legislative buddies.“Why are we signing off on allowing Ron DeSantis the ability to not do his job?” said State Representative Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville Democrat, who argued during the floor debate that Mr. DeSantis was neglecting his duties as governor.In the months before the legislative session kicked off in March, it seemed that the bill’s passage would mark a time for quiet celebration in the DeSantis camp — a tactical milestone for a campaign that seemed to have front-runner status in its grasp. But since then, the governor has frequently seemed to stumble or been stymied at crucial moments, often to the delight of former President Donald J. Trump, a declared candidate who now leads him in the polls.As Mr. DeSantis seeks to recover his footing, he will hope to present the new laws he has steered through Republican-controlled Tallahassee as evidence of what he might accomplish in the White House, while pointing to his landslide re-election last year as proof that his conservative policies have a broad base of support.“In November, December and January, Republicans all around the country were looking to DeSantis as the future of the party,” said Alex Conant, a Republican political strategist who worked as communications director for Senator Marco Rubio of Florida during his 2016 presidential campaign. “He was really hot coming off the midterms. But now it’s not so clear that Republican voters are ready to move beyond Trump.”Those close to Mr. DeSantis say he plans to make his presidential bid official in mid-May or late May, and he has already assembled the makings of a senior campaign staff.Matias J. Ocner/Miami Herald, via Associated PressPart of Mr. DeSantis’s struggle has been the challenge of running for higher office only unofficially. Such a shadow campaign limits how strongly his message can carry beyond Florida and seems to curtail his ability to criticize his presumptive main rival, Mr. Trump. Allies have been urging Mr. DeSantis to formally jump into the race, seeing it as the only way to deal with the former president.“Trump was born without gloves,” Mr. Conant said. “He is always on offense. If you’re going to run against him, expect him to wake up every day punching you.”As the pressure builds, the end of the DeSantis campaign-in-waiting finally seems near. Those close to him say he plans to make his presidential bid official in mid-May or late May. And he has assembled the makings of a senior campaign staff in Tallahassee, including veteran advisers from his time as governor and when he served in Congress. A super PAC backing his candidacy says it has raised $33 million and has hired operatives in key early voting states.The group, Never Back Down, also brought in Adam Laxalt, the former Nevada attorney general, as its chairman. Mr. Laxalt is a Trump ally who amplified the former president’s conspiracy theories about the integrity of the 2020 election. But he has longstanding ties to Mr. DeSantis, too, dating back to their days as roommates during naval officer training.“If Governor DeSantis heeds the growing calls for him to run for president, we can hit the ground running for him to win,” said Erin Perrine, the communications director for Never Back Down.As the political operation backing him grows, Mr. DeSantis has spent more and more time out of state, which has included appearances promoting his new memoir and a foreign trade mission this week. In his absence, cracks have started to appear in his political coalition back home for the first time.On Wednesday, State Senator Joe Gruters, a Republican who is a close ally of Mr. Trump, made an open show of defiance against Mr. DeSantis by voting no on a bill related to Disney. The bill — part of a yearlong feud between the company and Mr. DeSantis that has energized segments of the Republican base while alienating some members of the donor class — would nullify development agreements involving Disney.Crowds gathering to hear Mr. DeSantis during a book-signing event in Garden City, N.Y., in April.Johnny Milano for The New York TimesIn a statement, Mr. Gruters, a former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, said that the state should “support our job creators” and avoid influencing the behavior of corporations with “the heavy hand of government.”While he was the lone Republican to vote no, and the bill passed easily, the moment came as a sign that tensions between Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump are spelling the end of the days when the state party stood unanimously behind the governor.Mr. DeSantis’s attacks on Disney have also recently led some national Republicans to publicly air words of caution. Mr. Rubio said he did not have a problem taking on Disney but expressed concern that businesses might be fearful of coming to Florida if politicians continued to put pressure on companies over politics. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy also weighed in.“I think it would be much better if he sat down and solved the problem,” Mr. McCarthy told CNBC on Thursday.Local leaders have taken shots at Mr. DeSantis, too.Last week, Mayor Francis Suarez of Miami, a Republican who may also run for president, criticized how Mr. DeSantis treats others during an appearance on Fox News. “Well, he seems to struggle with relationships, generally,” said Mr. Suarez, who has occasionally clashed with the governor over the years but had not attacked him so personally. “I mean, I look people in the eye when I shake their hands.”Even Dwyane Wade, the popular former star for the N.B.A.’s Miami Heat, seemed to weigh in, saying in a television interview that he left Florida in part because of the state’s stance on transgender issues. (Mr. Wade’s teenage daughter is transgender.)“My family would not be accepted or feel comfortable there,” he said, without directly referencing the governor.As part of Mr. DeSantis’s agenda, state leaders have pushed laws banning children from drag shows and criminalizing gender-affirming health care for minors, as well as expanding a law that restricts the discussion of sexual orientation and gender identities in public schools.Drag queens and their supporters marched in a protest to the State Capitol in Tallahassee, Fla., on Tuesday.Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat, via Associated PressThe change to the resign-to-run law is not the first time a pliant legislature has helped out a governor. Legislators under former Governors Charlie Crist and Rick Scott adjusted the law when it seemed in their interest. Mr. DeSantis’s office did not respond when asked if he supported the change.Not every new law the governor sought this session is sure to pass.A proposal on immigration looks like it will be somewhat watered down. And the sponsor of a bill that would make it easier to sue the news media has said that the legislation is unlikely to move forward this year.Still, those who have seen Tallahassee in action say it was an unusually productive time.“I think it’s clear the governor has had a remarkable session, one of the best I can remember,” said Brian Ballard, an influential lobbyist who has served as a fund-raiser for both Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis.With Republicans holding supermajorities in both legislative chambers, Florida Democrats could do little but watch.Dan Gelber, the Democratic mayor of Miami Beach and a former state senator, said many of the governor’s priorities were “not important” to most Floridians.“It’s a heaping portion of red meat for his base,” Mr. Gelber said.Maggie Haberman More

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      Will the Economy Make or Break Biden in 2024?

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      Now that President Biden has announced his intention to run for a second term, economists and politicos are assessing whether his candidacy will be helped or hurt by the performance of the economy. If there’s a recession, will it be over and mostly forgotten by Election Day?Oxford Economics did an initial run of its election forecasting model, which takes economic factors into account, and found that Biden is in line to get around 55 percent of the popular vote, without any assumption about his opponent, according to a research briefing on Wednesday. Paul Krugman, my Opinion colleague, wrote Thursday that “the idea that the economy is going to pose a huge problem for Democrats next year isn’t backed by the available data.”The truth is, though, that we really don’t know who will win the 2024 election, or even what role the economy will play in it. As somebody who writes about economics, I’d love to say that the state of the economy leading up to Nov. 5, 2024, will matter a lot. But that does not seem to be the case, according to people I spoke with this week. One possible reason is that voters have become more polarized and set in their preferences, and thus less swayed by the ups and downs of the economy.For example, let’s say former President Donald Trump captures the Republican nomination. Most Biden supporters wouldn’t vote for him no matter how bad the economy got in 2024 — just as most Trump supporters won’t vote for Biden no matter how good the economy gets under the incumbent. James Carville’s admonition in 1992 that it’s “the economy, stupid” doesn’t hold up in this era of hyperpartisanship.In 1978 a pioneering article by the Yale economist Ray Fair, “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President,” made the case that “economic events as measured by the change in real economic activity in the year of the election do appear to have an important effect on votes for president.” In January, the model predicted, using his economic projections as inputs, that Biden, if renominated, would get 50.07 percent of the two-party presidential vote next year, with no assumption about the Republican opponent.Fair’s model, which he has tweaked over the years, correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every election from 1980 through 2008 except for 1992, when it incorrectly predicted Bill Clinton would get only 43 percent of the two-party popular vote against George H.W. Bush. It hasn’t done well lately, though: It predicted the Democrat would get less than half the popular vote in the two-candidate matchup in 2012, when President Barack Obama won a second term; in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost to Trump in the Electoral College; and in 2020, when Biden beat Trump.I asked Fair if it was fair to say that polarization of voters has weakened the predictive value of economic indicators. He acknowledged that Trump, an especially polarizing figure, had underperformed in both 2016 and 2020 given economic conditions that the Fair model considered favorable to him. (And he said it could happen again if Trump is the G.O.P. candidate next year.) But he said he’s not convinced that his economic model has lost its predictive power. “Personally, I think there’s still a pretty big middle group” of voters who are influenced by economic factors, he said.A good example of why it’s dangerous to over-rely on economic models is what happened in the spring of 2020, when Covid hit. Based on historical patterns, several of the best-known models (though not Fair’s) put a heavy weight on how the economy performs in the second quarter of an election year, namely April through June. Because of the Covid shutdown, the gross domestic product fell at an annual rate of 29.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020. Going by that one data point, the election should have been a disaster for the incumbent, Trump. But voters understood that Trump couldn’t be blamed for Covid. What’s more, the economy grew at an annual rate of 35.3 percent in the following quarter as it rebounded from the shutdown. In the end, Trump did worse than Fair’s model had predicted, but way better than predicted by models that heavily weighted second-quarter economic growth.Another problem with some economics-based forecasting models such as Fair’s is that they predict the popular vote, rather than the one that really matters, the Electoral College vote, which depends on state-by-state results. Fair is sticking to forecasting the popular vote because he thinks it’s of academic interest. Some other forecasters have switched to predicting the Electoral College result, but it’s much trickier. The outcome of the election comes down to a handful of swing states, and within those few states, to the behavior of a small minority of voters whose minds aren’t made up. “The Electoral College throws a monkey wrench into the business,” Alan Abramowitz, an emeritus professor of political science at Emory University, told me.One thing that puzzles me is why it’s even worthwhile to plug economic factors into an election forecast. If the relevance of the economy is that it affects voters’ feelings about the candidates, why not just cut to the chase and focus on the voters’ feelings? (Nate Cohn, my colleague on the news side, pointed out this week in another subscriber-only newsletter that the polls are showing a tight contest, with Biden slightly ahead of Trump and slightly behind Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida in hypothetical matchups.)I asked Charles Tien, a political science professor at the City University of New York’s Graduate Center and Hunter College, why he and others put economic indicators into their models. “When you add in the economy, it improves the results,” he said. But he acknowledged that it’s not obvious why that’s the case. When I asked Fair the same question by email, he wrote, “My empirical results are quite strong that the economy has mattered over time.” I wonder if it’s because economic indicators signal something about voters’ situations that they don’t fully express in surveys, which in any case have become less reliable as response rates have declined.Peter Enns, a political scientist at Cornell who ran the Cornell-based Roper Center for Public Opinion Research until last year, told me he thinks it’s too soon for predictions about the 2024 race. First, because there are too many unknowns, such as the field of candidates and the business cycle. Second, because at this stage voters should be focusing on who should win, not who will win. OK, that’s fair. No more horse-race prognosticating from me. For now.The Readers WriteWhat your newsletter about innovation misses is the input by experimentation. Our five senses are permanently providing us with personal experience that facilitates new creative thoughts. Only when chatbots are equipped with sensors can they become independent thinkers.Heinrich MullerRancho Palos Verdes, Calif.As for fertility, maybe all you men should think a little. Maybe women do not want to be saddled all through their adult years with raising your kids! Or maybe if men did a little more of the work, women wouldn’t mind so much.Marilynn MillerChicago areaTo test peer effects on fertility, why not hire actors to wheel baby carriages around one area and not around a demographically matched area nearby? Joking, of course.David AuerbachDurham, N.C.With the large run-up in housing prices that you mentioned, selling a home and buying a new one may involve a huge increase in property tax payments. This may be a significant disincentive to selling in addition to higher mortgage rates.Randy K. VogelLaguna Hills, Calif.Quote of the Day“I used to say to our audiences: ‘It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!’”— Upton Sinclair, “I, Candidate for Governor: And How I Got Licked” (1935) More

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      What Should Kamala Harris’s Role Be Now?

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      More from our inbox:Conflict in Montana Over a Transgender LawmakerWomen at Peace TalksMedical Assistance in DyingVice President Kamala Harris with President Biden at the White House in February.Doug Mills/The New York TimesTo the Editor:Re “Kamala Harris Really Matters in 2024,” by Thomas L. Friedman (column, April 26):Mr. Friedman identifies the heightened peril of this moment and states that President Biden “absolutely has to win.” Having declared his candidacy for a second term, Mr. Biden needs to address age-related questions head on. Consequently, his running mate faces greater scrutiny.Thus far, Vice President Kamala Harris hasn’t forged her own identity. By the very nature of the job, she is confined to a supporting role, but she needs breakout moments of not being a tightly programmed V.P. She must trust her own best instincts. Go off script. (Her handlers will be aghast.) Make mistakes and learn from them.After many years of being the consummate pragmatic politician, Mr. Biden seems to be more fully at ease in his own skin and seems to revel in the daunting challenges his presidency faces — head on with admirable grace and courage. He can free her to dare to do the same.Barbara Allen KenneyPaso Robles, Calif.To the Editor:Thomas L. Friedman is way off base in suggesting that Kamala Harris may be saved by giving her a variety of portfolios. She simply lacks the foreign policy and defense chops to justify putting her a heartbeat away from the presidency, especially when the president, if re-elected, would be well into his 80s as his second term progresses.The challenges posed by Russia, China, North Korea and others are simply too great to put a rookie in charge.Rubin GuttmanClevelandTo the Editor:Thomas L. Friedman’s column about a Biden-Harris ticket as a must win in 2024 is spot on. I disagree, however, with his suggestions for how best to elevate Kamala Harris on a national and international stage. Working on rural U.S. initiatives?! Ensuring our pre-eminence in artificial intelligence?!Come on! She needs to be in charge of those things she does best: passionate defense of social justice issues, including international diplomacy and equity for nations that are struggling with ruthless civil wars.We need Kamala Harris to develop and demonstrate her ability to both challenge autocracies and support struggling democracies à la Madeleine Albright.Judy WagenerMadison, Wis.To the Editor:Here’s an idea for the Democratic Party to consider: Get Kamala Harris back to California by having her take Dianne Feinstein’s Senate seat. Ms. Harris was very productive in California as attorney general and later as a senator. Unfortunately the 89-year-old Ms. Feinstein is no longer capable of doing the job.Ms. Harris might relish the opportunity to once again represent the Golden State. Furthermore this would free President Biden to select a running mate without its looking as though he were abandoning his loyal vice president.A relatively progressive running mate such as Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona would likely garner more votes and the electorate wouldn’t have to ponder whether it is Ms. Harris they’d want in the Oval Office should Mr. Biden’s health become an issue.Steven BrozinskyLa Jolla, Calif.To the Editor:While I agree completely with everything that Thomas L. Friedman says in his insightful column, there is one aspect about it that mystifies me. I agree that President Biden’s age is a concern for voters. But why isn’t Donald Trump’s age an even greater concern for voters? He is only four years younger than President Biden, is seriously overweight, and apparently never encountered a hamburger he couldn’t resist.Please stop focusing so obsessively on President Biden’s age without also raising the issue of Mr. Trump’s age and physical condition.Stephen CreagerSan FranciscoConflict in Montana Over a Transgender LawmakerRepresentative Zooey Zephyr, right, with Representative SJ Howell in the hallway outside the main chamber of the Montana House. Ms. Zephyr was monitoring debate on a laptop and casting votes from the hallway.Brittany Peterson/Associated PressTo the Editor:Re “Montana House Bars Transgender Lawmaker From Chamber Floor” (news article, April 27):Our legislature’s problem is that this is the 21st century. Young people and marginalized communities want to express themselves and to have a voice, but many older Montanans remain set in their ways. From Native American rights to climate change to transgender rights, the old guard appears oblivious.Historically, the state has suffered from a lack of diversity, and the influx of recent transplants in communities such as Bozeman and Missoula exacerbates a reactionary mind-set.The state is struggling to find a new equilibrium. Until it does, unfortunately, we may see more pictures in the news of stodgy old people making fools of themselves at the Montana statehouse.In the meantime, all Montanans and all Americans should stand behind Representative Zooey Zephyr, who was barred from participating in deliberations because of her impassioned comments on transgender issues, and the other courageous young people working to bend the arc of history toward justice.Peter CaposselaWhitefish, Mont.Women at Peace TalksA destroyed military vehicle in Khartoum, Sudan.Marwan Ali/Associated PressTo the Editor:Re “The Violence in Sudan Is Partly Our Fault,” by Jacqueline Burns (Opinion guest essay, April 24):The admission that U.S. and international peace negotiators got it wrong by engaging with leaders of Sudanese armed groups must spark a new kind of action to ensure that peace negotiations include women and the concerns that they bring to the table.Women’s exclusion from peace processes is all too common, such as in Syria and Afghanistan, and the consequences are dire. Women must be at the table, not only because that’s what fairness demands.Research has shown that when women are meaningfully included in negotiations, a peace agreement is 35 percent more likely to last at least 15 years. That’s because women’s leadership represents the needs of wider communities, resulting in greater legitimacy and democratic participation.We must also ask: Why? Why was it so much easier to patiently engage armed leaders with no demonstrated interest in peace, while women and other civil society leaders were told to wait their turn? If we can name the answer — patriarchal attitudes that permeate policymaking the world over — we will be in a better position to confront them and get peacemaking right.Yifat SusskindNew YorkThe writer is executive director of MADRE, an international women’s human rights organization and feminist fund.Medical Assistance in Dying Kyutae LeeTo the Editor:Re “Medical Assistance in Dying Should Not Exclude Mental Illness,” by Clancy Martin (Opinion guest essay, nytimes.com, April 21):As a psychiatrist, I have always had concerns about physicians assisting dying in those with terminal medical illnesses. Patients can change their minds about that wish with better pain control. If depression is present, its treatment can help lift spirits and facilitate discovery of reasons for wanting to live longer.Medical assistance in dying (MAID) for mental illness, scheduled to start less than a year from now in Canada, is more problematic, as the wish to die is a symptom of depression. Significant improvement has been made with psychiatric treatments. But the movement for MAID is a clear message that greater progress and access to care are essential.Jeffrey B. FreedmanNew York More

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      Top Republicans Balk at WinRed’s Plan to Charge More for Online Donations

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      Republican Party leaders are opposed to a proposed price increase by the online donation-processing company, WinRed, stirring debate about the company’s future.A battle over a threatened price increase has exposed growing tensions between top Republican Party officials and the company with a virtual monopoly on processing Republican campaign contributions online.Party leaders have risen up in opposition to the plan to raise prices, which would siphon millions of dollars from G.O.P. campaigns less than 20 months after the company, WinRed, had said its finances were robust enough to forego an extra fee on every transaction.In a series of private meetings in recent weeks, Gerrit Lansing, the president of WinRed, has told the leaders of the Republican National Committee, the House and Senate campaign arms and former President Donald J. Trump’s campaign that WinRed’s prices needed to go up.The Republican officials all objected.Mr. Lansing’s company, a private for-profit firm responsible for processing almost all online Republican political donations, charges 3.94 percent of almost every donation made online. But he said it wasn’t enough, citing an unforeseen slowdown in online G.O.P. giving last year and also plans to broaden WinRed’s suite of services. He moved to impose a 30-cent transaction fee on each of the tens of millions of coming contributions in the 2024 race, according to several people directly involved in or briefed on the conversations.The plan to raise prices appears to have stalled over fierce G.O.P. objections, according to people involved in the talks. But the episode has accelerated conversations at the party’s highest levels about the decision four years ago to clear the way for WinRed to dominate the online donation-processing field, and about whether the for-profit company’s model needs to be reassessed. Democrats process most online donations through ActBlue, which, unlike WinRed, is an independent nonprofit. ActBlue charges a flat rate of 3.95 percent per donation and does not charge an additional per-transaction fee.“WinRed is constantly evaluating what it takes to compete against and leapfrog ActBlue, combat the Democrats’ campaign to attack us by all means available, and still make the necessary investments to provide our customers with the features they need to win,” WinRed said in a statement. “At this time, WinRed has no announcements to make regarding pricing.”Representatives for the party committees declined to comment.Gerrit Lansing, the president of WinRed, has told officials about a plan to charge an extra fee on every transaction.Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call, Getty ImagesMr. Lansing’s pursuit of outside investors to expand WinRed’s digital footprint and offerings — including talks with advisers to Paul Singer, a major Republican financier — has spurred further discussions about the company’s ownership structure.The obscure industry of processing donations online is deeply consequential for Republicans because the party has faced a persistent digital fund-raising deficit against Democrats. WinRed has been held up as the linchpin of the party’s plans to help close that gap.Huge sums are involved. There were nearly 31.2 million donations made on WinRed during the 2022 federal elections, worth nearly $1.2 billion. The upcoming presidential cycle could easily double that.The creation of WinRed in 2019 was supposed to be one of Mr. Trump’s enduring legacies within the Republican infrastructure, a bold bid to unify the party around a single platform to help shrink the G.O.P. fund-raising gap with ActBlue. Mr. Trump, his son-in-law Jared Kushner and Mr. Trump’s campaign manager at the time, Brad Parscale, were all personally involved.The site has largely been a success, achieving near-universal adoption among G.O.P. campaigns. WinRed originally had charged 3.8 percent of contributions with an additional 30-cent transaction fee. That amounted to an especially steep share of smaller contributions — 68 cents, or nearly 7 percent, of a $10 donation, for instance.A Trump rally in Waco, Texas, in March. As president, Donald J. Trump was among those personally involved in the creation of WinRed in 2019.Christopher Lee for The New York TimesIn late 2021, Mr. Lansing trumpeted the removal of the 30-cent transaction fee, saying the company had been able to “achieve and maintain scale.” But the decision by credit card companies to raise their own fees not long afterward made WinRed’s move unsustainable, according to a person close to the company, as most of its processing fees are quickly spent on credit card costs.In recent weeks, Mr. Lansing told party officials that WinRed had suffered financially in 2022 as a result of diminished Republican giving and that he needed to reimpose a per-transaction fee ahead of 2024 to continue broader investments in technology. Because WinRed is a private firm, its executive compensation and the state of its finances remain mostly hidden from public view. Records show that federal candidates and committees paid WinRed at least $64 million in the 2022 election cycle; those funds were not all from processing fees but also included significant vendor fees, according to a person close to WinRed.Its Democratic counterpart, ActBlue, has faced a financial pinch too, announcing in early April plans to lay off 17 percent of its work force. ActBlue discloses more of its finances than its counterpart does, including the amount of donors who volunteered to add “tips” on top of their donations. Those tips go directly to ActBlue and have built a $68.7 million balance in ActBlue’s federal account as of the end of 2022. Mr. Lansing has begun discussing adding the option to make tips to the Republican site as well, according to people involved in the conversations.WinRed faces other unique pressures, including an investigation by multiple state attorneys general into the firm’s use of prechecked boxes that automatically signed up donors to make recurring donations unless they opted out. A New York Times investigation in 2021 revealed how the extensive use of those boxes — known internally as “money bombs” for withdrawing more than one donation at a time — spurred an enormous wave of demands for refunds and complaints of fraud to credit card companies at the end of the 2020 campaign.WinRed sued to block subpoenas but lost a key legal battle in February when the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the investigation could proceed in Minnesota. In New York, a December filing from the state attorney general, Letitia James, that demanded compliance with a subpoena gave a glimpse into the internal documents her office has already obtained. The filing cited an internal WinRed memo as saying that, at one point in June 2020, donors who were opted into multiple donations through pre-checked boxes had caused a surge of phone calls and “a 10,000 message deep queue over one weekend.” Recurring donations were dropping over time, the memo theorized, because “as donors get used to or go through the process they become more savvy.”One Republican candidate who saw a surge of refund requests from people who were unwittingly opted into recurring donations was Kelly Loeffler, a senator who lost her runoff in Georgia in January 2021 and who found the experience of working with WinRed jarring.“It absolutely was a red flag,” Ms. Loeffler said in an interview, referring to the deluge of refund requests. Ms. Loeffler, a former co-owner of the Women’s National Basketball Association team in Atlanta, has since bought donation-processing technology from a Republican firm that stopped its business after the creation of WinRed. She has rebranded the technology and now uses it in running RallyRight, another company that processes online donations.“We have seen a need for a competitor in this market,” Ms. Loeffler said.So far, she is undercutting WinRed on price — charging 3.5 percent of donations — and ensuring that “no campaign can automatically check a recurring payments box.” She declined to name specific Republican groups that she has spoken with but said the price could go even lower — down to 3 percent — with “the scale of some of the organizations we are talking to.”Ms. Loeffler said that she was in the business not for personal profit but to direct more money to campaigns. “It’s absolutely not about me making millions of dollars,” she said. “I’ve done that.” More

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      ¿Cuánto les importa a los votantes la edad de Joe Biden?

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      Más allá de una crisis de salud o una equivocación grave, hay buenas razones para pensar que la edad de Biden puede importar menos de lo que sugieren algunas encuestas.Muchos estadounidenses dicen que no quieren que el presidente Joe Biden vuelva a postularse a la reelección y su edad es una razón de peso. En una encuesta de NBC News publicada el pasado fin de semana, el 70 por ciento de los adultos opinó que Biden, de 80 años, no debería volver a postularse. A la pregunta de si la edad era un factor, el 69 por ciento respondió que sí. Otros sondeos recientes detectan una falta de entusiasmo similar y hay muchos votantes (incluida alrededor de la mitad de los demócratas) que consideran que Biden es demasiado mayor para volver a aspirar a la Casa Blanca.Visto así, es fácil imaginar que su edad pudiera perjudicar la campaña de reelección que anunció de manera formal el martes. Biden, quien ya es el presidente de mayor edad en la historia de Estados Unidos, tendría 86 años al terminar su segundo mandato. Los republicanos han difundido videos de sus lapsus verbales, así como de ocasiones en las que tartamudea, y han sugerido que reflejan un declive cognitivo. La edad de Biden es un chiste frecuente en los programas de la televisión nocturna.Sin embargo, un análisis de las encuestas y las investigaciones académicas muestra un panorama sorprendentemente más ambiguo. Con la advertencia obvia de que una equivocación grave relacionada con la edad o una crisis de salud podrían cambiar las cosas, hay buenas razones para pensar que la edad de Biden puede importar menos de lo que sugieren algunas encuestas.1. Teoría contra prácticaCon frecuencia los estadounidenses suelen expresar su preocupación por los gobernantes de mayor edad, pero eso no ha evitado que voten por candidatos más viejos.En una encuesta reciente de USA Today y la Universidad de Suffolk, la mitad de los estadounidenses dijeron que la edad ideal de un presidente era de entre 51 y 65 años. Una cuarta parte dijo que prefería que los candidatos tuvieran menos de 50 años. Pero cinco de los últimos ocho candidatos presidenciales, incluidos Biden en 2020 y Donald Trump (dos veces), han superado los 65 años. En varios casos, los votantes los eligieron frente a oponentes mucho más jóvenes en las elecciones primarias. Y, en el último siglo, se ha elegido a decenas de senadores o representantes cuya edad supera los 80 años.La preocupación por la edad también tiene más matices de lo que parece a primera vista. Aunque la mayoría de los electores se muestran a favor de limitar la edad de los políticos, no se ponen de acuerdo sobre cuál debería ser ese límite. Muchos también afirman que los legisladores de más edad aportan una valiosa experiencia y no se les debería prohibir servir al país si siguen gozando de buena salud.Eso no significa que los estadounidenses que dicen estar preocupados por la edad estén mintiendo. Sus decisiones al momento de votar pueden reflejar las opciones disponibles. “No hay nada incoherente en que la gente diga que una persona de 80 años no debería ser presidente y luego vote por un candidato de 80 años si esa es la única opción que se les da”, manifestó Whit Ayres, encuestador republicano.Tampoco está claro que la edad sea una desventaja para los candidatos más viejos. Los gobernantes mayores suelen tener índices de aprobación más bajos que los más jóvenes, según un estudio de 2022 del que es coautor Damon Roberts, doctorando en Ciencias Políticas por la Universidad de Colorado en Boulder. Pero en su investigación, los votantes mostraron una apertura más o menos similar al momento de apoyar a candidatos hipotéticos de 23, 50 o 77 años.También sucede que, por estos días, hay muchos políticos de mayor edad en diferentes cargos. “No creo que Biden en particular se vea muy fuera de lugar en la escena política de este momento”, afirmó Roberts.Sin embargo, nadie de la edad de Biden se ha postulado a la reelección presidencial, y otros expertos dudan que se integre facilmente. “La presidencia es fundamentalmente diferente”, dijo Ayres. “La visibilidad es mucho mayor”.2. El partido ante todoLos sondeos sugieren que los votantes perciben temas más importantes para Biden que para candidatos de mayor edad anteriores (aunque los encuestadores parecen haber preguntado con menos frecuencia sobre la edad de los candidatos pasados). Pero, en estos tiempos de polarización, es mucho más probable que la lealtad al partido determine la elección de los ciudadanos.“A fin de cuentas, vamos a votar por el partido ‘D’ o por el ‘R’”, afirma Karlyn Bowman, investigadora emérita del American Enterprise Institute que estudia las encuestas de opinión pública. “En este momento, la lealtad partidista es tan fuerte que eso prevalecerá sobre las demás preocupaciones”.La percepción de las capacidades de Biden también depende de la afiliación partidista. Los republicanos —quienes probablemente no apoyarían a ningún candidato demócrata, por muy en forma que esté— son los más propensos a decir que Biden es demasiado viejo para continuar en la presidencia. Su edad tampoco ha impedido que la gran mayoría de los demócratas consideren su mandato como un éxito (aunque los demócratas más jóvenes muestran menos entusiasmo ante la postulación de Biden a la reelección).“La gente piensa en otras cosas a la hora de votar”, dijo Margie Omero, directora de GBAO, una encuestadora demócrata. “El historial de Biden, el historial de Trump, lo que ven como el futuro del país, los logros legislativos, la lucha por el derecho al aborto”.En última instancia, la edad de Biden podría ser más importante para los votantes indecisos que están abiertos a respaldar a cualquiera de los partidos, lo que les da una gran influencia para elegir al ganador. “Es una porción muy pequeña de la población en la actualidad, pero aún así, es muy importante”, afirmó Bowman.3. Solo un númeroEsto nos lleva al tema de si Biden podrá influir en las opiniones de los electores sobre su idoneidad para el cargo. En febrero, Omero y sus colegas de Navigator Research, una encuestadora demócrata, reclutaron a un pequeño grupo de votantes indecisos para que vieran el discurso de Biden sobre el Estado de la Unión. Antes del discurso, solo un 35 por ciento de ellos lo describía como “apto para la presidencia”. Tras el discurso —en el que se produjo un intercambio de opiniones inesperado entre Biden y los congresistas republicanos sobre la Seguridad Social y Medicare— el 55 por ciento consideró que Biden tiene las capacidades necesarias para ejercer el cargo.Biden también podría tratar de evadir este tema si continúa limitando sus apariciones públicas. En 1996, Ayres trabajó en la campaña de reelección al Senado de Carolina del Sur de Strom Thurmond, quien en ese entonces tenía 93 años, en un momento en el que, al parecer, sufría un deterioro cognitivo. “Intentamos mantenerlo lo más invisible posible”, dijo Ayres.Presidentes anteriores, como Dwight Eisenhower y Ronald Reagan, lograron superar las dudas sobre sus edades y ganaron la reelección con un buen margen.Pero Biden es mayor de lo que ellos eran cuando trataron de reelegirse. “La cuestión no es tanto cómo es hoy”, dijo Ayres. “La cuestión es cómo será en 2028”. Es posible que el mandatario tenga que confiar en que los votantes pasen por alto cualquier preocupación a largo plazo sobre su edad.4. El factor TrumpTrump, quien tendrá 78 años el día de las elecciones, parece ser el aspirante mejor posicionado para ganar las primarias republicanas de 2024. Supera a su competidor potencial más cercano —el gobernador de Florida, Ron DeSantis, de 44 años— en las encuestas nacionales y en los respaldos de otros republicanos.Aunque las edades similares de Biden y Trump podrían hacer que el tema pierda importancia; por ahora, los electores dicen estar más preocupados por la edad de Biden. Y si Trump ataca con agresividad el estado físico de Biden, podría generar más escrutinio sobre ese tema que un aspirante más joven pero más comedido.Pero también es un mensaje que Trump ya ha usado antes —como cuando, en 2020, le puso el sobrenombre de “Sleepy Joe” (“Joe, el dormilón”)— en una contienda que no ganó. En algún momento, todo ese discurso sobre la edad de Biden puede comenzar a parecerle anticuada a los votantes.Ian Prasad Philbrick es redactor del boletín The Morning. @IanPrasad More

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      ‘His Candidacy Feels Deader Than Disco’: Our Columnists Weigh In on Asa Hutchinson

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      As Republican candidates enter the 2024 presidential race, Times columnists and Opinion writers will assess their strengths and weaknesses with a scorecard. We rate the candidates on a scale of 1 to 10: 1 means the candidate will probably drop out before any caucus or primary voting; 10 means the candidate has a very strong chance of receiving the party’s nomination next summer. This entry assesses Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas, who announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination on Wednesday.How seriously should we take Asa Hutchinson’s candidacy?John Brummett His candidacy should be taken seriously for his diverse, relevant experience and for what he has to say about today’s political predicament. But it probably won’t be taken that way, considering that his strength is as a workhorse in a game designed for show horses. He’d make a fine and circumspect attorney general.Matthew Continetti On Earth Two, where Donald Trump never entered American politics, a two-term conservative governor from the South like Asa Hutchinson would be considered a serious candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination. But where we live, and in Trump’s G.O.P., Hutchinson is a long shot.Michelle Cottle As seriously as you would take any little-known, low-key, old-school Republican contender with decades of government experience who has said that Donald Trump has disqualified himself from being president again. So, not seriously at all.David French Just as seriously as we should take the chances of Republican primary voters turning decisively against Trump and Trumpism. At this point it’s far more of a hope than an expectation.Rosie Gray Not very seriously. Hutchinson is vying to occupy the return-to-normalcy, adult-in-the-room lane, which is a lane that Republican voters have shown little interest in over the past eight years. His candidacy is likely to struggle to break through amid the onslaught of Trump-related news.Michelle Goldberg If he could hop in a time machine to 2012, he’d be a favorite. In today’s Republican Party I don’t think he has a chance.Liz Mair Asa Hutchinson is a serious person who arguably did a better job on fiscal governance than Ron DeSantis and certainly a much better job than Donald Trump. He’s a very underrated politician, but I’m not sure “competent steward of public finances and generally affable-seeming fellow” is sufficiently salable in today’s Republican rage machine.Daniel McCarthy Asa Hutchinson probably hopes to be taken as seriously as John Kasich was in 2016. But he’ll be lucky if he has even as much impact as his fellow Arkansan Mike Huckabee had that year, which was virtually none.What matters most about him as a presidential candidate?Brummett Any airing his message gets is the most important thing. He’s making the case that boorish, irresponsible and destructive behavior is not conservatism. That’s what his party needs to hear.Continetti Hutchinson’s willingness to take stands against Trump and the ascendant New Right within the Republican Party is laudable, if only because so few conservatives have done the same thing. His fearlessness may stand out on the debate stage.Cottle He is, as advertised, a “consistent conservative” — pro-God, pro-gun, pro-business, anti-abortion rights, anti-big government — aggressively looking to remind Republicans that there is an alternative to the middle-finger nastiness of Trumpism. Which is also why his candidacy feels deader than disco. Who is his target audience?French He’s the first true “turn the page” candidate in the race. He’s a traditional Republican who’s provided the most consistent and clear critique of Trump of anyone who has entered the race. He’s called on Trump to withdraw from the race, and he’s defended prominent Republican Trump critics Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger.Gray He represents the still-extant yearning among old-school Republicans for an anti-Trump alternative. Other potential candidates who could have filled this space, like former Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland, have so far decided not to run, so Hutchinson’s bid will be a test case for how much interest such a candidacy can attract.Goldberg He is admirably anti-Trump, arguing that Jan. 6 should be disqualifying, and he had a more measured response to Trump’s indictment than other members of his party, who rushed to Trump’s defense.Mair Arkansas has produced quite a lot of talented politicians over the years. His candidacy will be a test of how big a chunk of the G.O.P. electorate cares about a candidate combining the actual ability to govern and honesty without consistently coming off as a nasty, evil person or media “personality.” My guess is that’s a pretty small chunk.McCarthy He’s as much an anti-DeSantis candidate as he is anti-Trump. As governor, Hutchinson antagonized social conservatives by vetoing legislation that banned “gender-transition procedures” for minors, and although he did sign an abortion ban, he had said more recently that the ban should be “revisited” to permit more exceptions.What do you find most inspiring — or unsettling — about his vision for America?Brummett What inspires most is that he brings precisely what this politically dysfunctional country needs: someone who can surprise both the right and left. He brings conservative bona fides, but in Arkansas, he also vetoed a bill that would have banned hormone therapy for trans youth, asserting that parents and doctors should make those decisions and that interrupting a treatment plan already in progress is cruel. He called the Affordable Care Act bad policy but went to the mat to save Medicaid expansion in his state. That kind of independent thought is inspiring.Continetti Hutchinson is a freedom conservative devoted to the limited-government principles of Ronald Reagan. I’m happy to see him standing for his beliefs.Cottle At this point, Hutchinson isn’t really offering a vision for America so much as a post-Trumpian vision for the Republican Party. This is a worthy — even glorious — aim.French A Hutchinson presidential election itself would have a singular inspiring element — his election would represent a truly bipartisan repudiation of Trump and a clear revival of the moral center of the G.O.P.Gray It’s hard to tell at this stage what that vision is, since Hutchinson’s run seems primarily motivated by opposition to Trump. Voters are likely to find his Reaganesque politics familiar, maybe even comforting, but probably not inspiring or fresh.Goldberg He seems to imagine that there’s a version of American conservatism that isn’t bitterly conspiratorial and inspired by Viktor Orban’s Hungary. I think he’s wrong, but it’s a nice fantasy.Mair I personally think about the fact that Arkansas, under him and others, hasn’t exactly been a beacon of light where occupational licensing reform is concerned — but that’s something approximately 0.1 percent of Republican primary voters care about.McCarthy What’s pitiful, if not unsettling, about Hutchinson’s vision is that it’s what passes for center-right without having the merits of either the center or the right. The center should be broadly appealing and practical rather than ideological. The right should be firmly opposed to the left. These commitments can be brought together, albeit not without tension, in an effective center-right. Republicans like Hutchinson, however, can succeed only as long as they don’t have to answer the tough policy questions. Once they do have to answer — about abortion, for example — they prove to be ideological yet also inconsistent, unpopular themselves yet hostile to the right for jeopardizing the party’s popularity.Imagine you’re a G.O.P. operative or campaign manager. What’s your elevator pitch for a Hutchinson candidacy?Brummett You think he’s a RINO? Just remember — he played a central role in Clinton’s impeachment proceedings, and the N.R.A. hired him after Sandy Hook to lead a task force that recommended armed guards at schools.Continetti Republican voters may want a brawler to take the fight to the left, but they may also want to actually win a presidential election even more.Cottle Former governors know how to get stuff done, and this one is a staunch conservative — but not of the ragey, paranoid, conspiracy-mongering variety.French Reasonable conservatism can win.Gray I would pitch him as a serious, experienced public servant with solid conservative credentials who would be an antidote to the nonstop political circus.Goldberg He looks like a TV president, was popular in bright-red Arkansas and projects a sunny affability rare among Republicans, even as he holds doctrinaire, base-pleasing views on issues like guns and abortion.Mair Don’t want to return to the days when you thought about what outrageous stuff the president was doing once a week or even daily? Vote for Asa.McCarthy Asa Hutchinson is the right choice if you think conservative Republicans have already lost the culture wars but ought to surrender slowly.John Brummett (@johnbrummett) is a columnist for The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette in Little Rock.Matthew Continetti (@continetti) is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of “The Right: The Hundred-Year War for American Conservatism.”Michelle Cottle is a member of the Times’s editorial board.David French and Michelle Goldberg are Times columnists.Rosie Gray is a political reporter.Liz Mair (@LizMair) has served as a campaign strategist for Scott Walker, Roy Blunt, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina and Rick Perry. She is the founder and president of Mair Strategies.Daniel McCarthy is the editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More