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      Donald Trump Prepares to Surrender

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      The Manhattan indictments may not even present his biggest legal threat.Donald Trump is expected to turn himself in to the Manhattan authorities today. Further down, you can read about the latest developments and what to expect today.I also want to devote part of today’s newsletter to the other three criminal investigations of Trump — because at least one of them could end up being more significant than the charges in Manhattan, both legally and politically.Why?For one thing, some legal experts view the Manhattan case skeptically. The closest analogy to it may be the 2012 trial of John Edwards, the former Democratic presidential candidate, who was accused of violating campaign-finance law by hiding payments to cover up an extramarital affair. Jurors acquitted Edwards of one charge and deadlocked on the others, a reminder that many people are uncomfortable criminalizing scandals that revolve around consensual sex.The political impact of sex scandals is similarly questionable. Trump has a long, public history of cheating on his wives, as any reader of New York’s tabloid newspapers knows. It did not keep him from being elected president any more than Bill Clinton’s reputation for infidelity kept him from winning in 1992. Clinton also lied about an affair while he was president — under oath, no less — but many Americans nonetheless believed he should remain in the job.The case against Trump could turn out differently, of course: He could be convicted. Even if he is, though, the charges do not seem likely to change many voters’ views of Trump.Two of the other three investigations into Trump are somewhat different. They are about democracy, not sex, and there is already reason to believe that they are more politically threatening to him.One of the two is a federal investigation into Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, including his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. The second involves those same efforts, but only in Georgia, where local prosecutors are looking into his failed attempt to overturn the result. Prosecutors have not yet announced whether they will bring charges in either case.Both stem from Trump’s rejection of basic democratic principles that other leaders of both parties have long accepted — that the loser of an election should concede; that politicians should not tell brazen and repeated lies; that violence is an unacceptable political tactic. Over the past few years, a small — but crucial — slice of voters who are otherwise sympathetic to the Republican Party have indicated that they are uncomfortable with Trump’s attacks on democracy.In 2020, he became only the fourth president in the past century to lose re-election, even as Republican congressional candidates fared better than expected. Last year, Trump’s preferred candidates performed about five percentage points worse than otherwise similar Republicans, my colleague Nate Cohn estimates. As a result, every election denier who ran to oversee elections in a battleground state last year lost.An indictment and a trial in either the Jan. 6 case or the Georgia case would again focus attention on Trump’s anti-democratic behavior. Most of his supporters would probably stick by him, but the cases probably present a greater risk to his standing with swing voters than a case revolving around the cover-up of an affair. And if polls were to show Trump clearly losing a hypothetical rematch with President Biden, some Republican primary voters might become nervous, hurting Trump in the primaries.I’m not predicting that outcome or any other specific scenario. There is a great deal of uncertainty about Trump’s legal problems and the 2024 election. I merely want to remind you that while attention will understandably focus on the Manhattan case this week, Trump’s legal problems are larger than this one case.Here’s our overview of the other three cases, compiled by my colleague Ian Prasad Philbrick.1. Jan. 6This is a federal investigation into Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. The investigation appears to be focusing on Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 attack, on attempts by him and his allies to recruit fake presidential electors in key states, and on their fund-raising off false voter-fraud claims.Typically, the Justice Department tries to avoid taking actions that could influence the outcome of a campaign that has formally begun. (James Comey’s rejection of this tradition in the Hillary Clinton email case was a major exception.) If Jack Smith, the special counsel overseeing this Trump inquiry, follows the tradition, Smith may make an announcement about whether to bring charges well before the end of this year.“He wants to resolve things quickly. But we cannot say how quickly,” my colleague Alan Feuer, who’s been covering the case, said.2. GeorgiaAfter Trump lost the 2020 election, he pressured Georgia’s top elections official “to find 11,780 votes,” enough to overturn his defeat. A grand jury investigating those efforts heard from 75 witnesses, including Rudy Giuliani and Lindsey Graham, and recommended that prosecutors charge multiple people with crimes. It’s unclear whether Trump is among them, because much of the grand jury’s report remains secret. But the jury’s forewoman has hinted he was among them.The charges could include attempted election fraud and racketeering related to Trump’s involvement in a plan to recruit fake presidential electors. Prosecutors will likely decide whether to charge anyone by next month.3. Government documentsThe third case — involving the handling of classified documents — is probably less threatening to Trump, at least from a political standpoint. Many politicians, apparently including Biden and former Vice President Mike Pence, have broken the rules for handling classified material. It’s partly a reflection of what many experts consider the over-classification of documents, including many that contain mundane information.Trump’s case does seem more extreme, however. He not only took hundreds of classified documents from the White House but also repeatedly resisted giving many of them back. Charges could include obstruction of justice for defying a subpoena. Smith is overseeing this inquiry as well, and the timing of a resolution remains unknown.The latest newsPolice officers and Secret Service agents will escort Trump from his home in Trump Tower to the district attorney’s office in Lower Manhattan, where he will surrender. Follow today’s developments.The New York Police Department has been put on alert. But officials say they do not expect a major backlash.Trump added a lawyer to his defense team, a former federal prosecutor with experience in white-collar cases.The case against Trump could hinge on an untested legal theory. Here’s what we know.THE LATEST NEWSPoliticsVoters head to the polls today to decide the runoff for Chicago mayor and to choose a new judge for Wisconsin’s Supreme Court.About 15 million Americans could soon lose their health insurance because of the expiration of a pandemic program that automatically extended Medicaid coverage.Some Republicans fear that legislation to limit press freedom in Florida, drafted at Ron DeSantis’s urging, could expose conservative outlets to libel suits.Other Big StoriesClockwise from left: Christina Koch, Victor Glover, Jeremy Hansen and Reid Wiseman.Josh Valcarcel/NASA Johnson Space Center, via ReutersMeet the astronauts of the Artemis II mission: They’ll be the first people to fly around the moon in more than 50 years.Finland joins NATO today. It’s a strengthening of the Western alliance and a strategic setback for Vladimir Putin.More severe weather is on the way to the Midwest and parts of the South, the same area that tornadoes hit a few days ago.From convenient to a nuisance: Parisians voted to ban electric rental scooters.Freeing Paul Rusesabagina, depicted in the movie “Hotel Rwanda,” involved secret diplomacy, lawsuits and Hollywood.A ranch owner in Arizona was charged in the shooting death of a migrant. Some conservative ranchers say the owner was the real victim.OpinionsMatthew Walther supports gun rights, but he thinks that the fetishism of AR-15 fandom is dangerous.Baseball’s new rules are a desperately needed makeover, Steve Kettmann writes.MORNING READSA member of the Blackfeet Nation in Montana resting after shooting a bison last month.Michael Hanson for The New York TimesThe hunt: Their job is to kill bison who roam beyond Yellowstone’s borders.Up in the air: Take a close look at California’s snowy mountains.Baby’s first social media handle: Sorry, that profile name is taken. It belongs to a newborn.Love story: She thought her crush on a colleague was secret. Until someone asked, “Why do you have Jake pinned to your screen?”A Morning watch: She survived the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. This is her story, in her voice.Lives Lived: As a young man, Raghavan Iyer didn’t know how to cook a simple potato curry. He went on to teach America’s heartland how to prepare Indian cuisine. Iyer died at 61.SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETICConnecticut players celebrating their win yesterday.Godofredo A. Vasquez/Associated PressN.C.A.A. men’s tournament winners: The UConn Huskies claimed their fifth national title with a 76-59 drubbing of upstart San Diego State. They survived a chaotic men’s tournament which saw all four No. 1 seeds lose before the Elite Eight.From the sideline: UConn’s dominance in the men’s tournament has brought out the inner calm in its head coach.A possible invite: Jill Biden suggested that the women’s runner-up, Iowa, could also be invited to the White House alongside national champion L.S.U. Tigers star Angel Reese responded with laughing emojis.Oral history: Twenty years ago, the Boston Red Sox created “the most fun clubhouse in baseball.” The Athletic called those players.ARTS AND IDEAS Revising classicsAuthors’ estates have been altering the text of well-known books to remove language that some may consider offensive, raising questions about art and censorship. But for publishers, there’s another important factor: making sure those books still sell.Agatha Christie continues to find new fans, and her estate had those readers in mind when it recently removed bigoted language from some of her novels. Christie’s estate learned long ago how lucrative such a change could be: In the 1980s, it dropped the title from the U.K. edition of one novel, which contained a slur, and adopted the U.S. title, “And Then There Were None.” It remains her best-selling book.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookDavid Malosh for The New York TimesPair radicchio with a tasty dressing.What to WatchThe documentary “Pretty Baby: Brooke Shields” includes an absorbing collage of archival footage.What to ReadIn “A Fever in the Heartland,” Timothy Egan traces the Ku Klux Klan’s expansion in the 1920s.Late NightStephen Colbert wondered if Trump would get a mug shot taken.Now Time to PlayThe pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was commodity. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Sports stadium (five letters).And here’s today’s Wordle. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — DavidP.S. We have winners in The Morning’s March Madness pools: “KarlyRenee” in the women’s bracket, and “Archytas” in the men’s. Congratulations! If you’re one of them, email us at themorning@nytimes.com to receive your prize.Here’s today’s front page.“The Daily” is about Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election. More

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      Donald Trump and New York City Brace for a Consequential Week

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      Donald Trump and his campaign spent the weekend making plans for his arrest, and how to capitalize on it, while officials in New York prepared for potential turmoil.Former President Donald J. Trump is preparing to walk into a Manhattan courtroom as both a defendant and a candidate, making final plans for his arrest on Tuesday while also trying to maximize his surrender for political benefit. Officials in New York, meanwhile, are bracing for the circuslike atmosphere that expected protests might bring.The Trump campaign on Sunday scheduled a prime-time news conference at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday night, just hours after Mr. Trump is expected to turn himself in. The campaign also has been using his indictment in fund-raising appeals, and said it had raised $4 million in just 24 hours, though financial records corroborating the claim will not be available for weeks.The planning reflects Mr. Trump’s belief that the indictment will ultimately bolster his standing in his third bid for the G.O.P. presidential nomination, with Republicans who had been considering alternatives rallying to his side. His recent polling has been among the strongest of his 2024 campaign.On Sunday, some Trump critics came to his defense, suggesting that the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, might have targeted him unfairly. The actual crimes Mr. Trump is accused of are not publicly known, though they are believed to be related to a hush-money payment to Stormy Daniels, a former porn star who claims she had an affair with Mr. Trump. The indictment, news of which broke on Thursday, may not be unsealed before his arraignment.Mr. Trump is expected to fly into La Guardia Airport from Florida on his private plane on Monday afternoon, and then stay the night at his apartment in Trump Tower, meeting with his lawyers while there. Aides are trying to negotiate a short visit to the courthouse in Lower Manhattan, for a midafternoon arraignment, people familiar with his plans said.The next few days could be critical for Mr. Trump, and advisers have warned him that he could easily damage his own case, according to a person involved in the discussions who requested anonymity because the talks were private. He wrote an especially incendiary post on his social media site, Truth Social, that featured a news article with a photo of Mr. Bragg on one side and Mr. Trump holding a baseball bat on the other. It was eventually taken down, after pleading by advisers. And he has already attacked the judge — comments his lawyers tried to smooth over in appearances on the morning talk shows on Sunday.Mr. Trump kept a typical schedule over the weekend.The Trump campaign on Sunday announced plans for a news conference at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday night.Josh Ritchie for The New York TimesOn Friday night, he attended a housewarming event for an associate near Mar-a-Lago, his home in Palm Beach, Fla. He golfed on Saturday and spent time with Gary Player, the South African retired professional golfer, at the nearby Trump International Golf Club, and dined at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday night (his legal adviser, Boris Epshteyn, was spotted nearby in a three-piece suit). Mr. Trump has been relatively calm, according to people who have spoken with him, exhibiting little of the anxiety he had in the lead-up to the indictment.When he arrives in court, Mr. Trump, unlike typical defendants, will be surrounded by a phalanx of Secret Service agents, making all logistics much more complicated. He will be fingerprinted and will possibly have a police photo taken; such photos are typically not released publicly in New York, although the intense public interest in this case could change that. While it is normal for defendants charged with felonies to be handcuffed — as the former Trump Organization chief financial officer, Allen H. Weisselberg, was in 2021 — one of Mr. Trump’s lawyers, Joseph Tacopina, has said he does not expect that to occur.Before the arraignment, Mr. Trump is likely to be held in an interview room as opposed to a cell, according to the person involved in the Trump team’s discussions. He will then enter a courtroom and make his plea, which is expected to be not guilty. While there is expected to be at least one camera set up in the courthouse hallway capturing Mr. Trump’s walk to the courtroom, cameras are typically not allowed in New York courtrooms. However, news organizations have asked the judge to make an exception.Law enforcement officials were preparing for a chaotic atmosphere, with protests around Trump Tower and near the courthouse. Barricades were set up near Mr. Trump’s office tower, stretching several blocks.Police officers were warned that they might be called on for crowd control around the courthouse. And the presence of what is likely the most famous defendant the Manhattan Criminal Court has ever seen, with his own unique security needs, has led to all kinds of changes in how the courthouse will function that day.Still, despite concerns about potential for violence, particularly after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol building by a pro-Trump mob, there were few signs that a repeat was likely..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Mr. Trump’s advisers have been trying to impress upon him the need to avoid rousing his supporters in a way that leads to violence, people close to the former president have said.On Sunday, Mr. Tacopina and another of Mr. Trump’s lawyers, Jim Trusty, appeared on television programs and tried to tamp down any inflammation their client might have caused on social media, particularly through his attacks on the judge in the case, Juan M. Merchan, an acting New York Supreme Court justice. Mr. Trump has claimed Justice Merchan, who also presided over the trial of the Trump Organization last year, was “hand picked” by prosecutors. And last week, Mr. Trump declared on Truth Social that Justice Merchan “hates me.”“I have no issue with this judge whatsoever,” Mr. Tacopina said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “He has a very good reputation.”Mr. Tacopina has otherwise aggressively defended Mr. Trump on television, and some of Mr. Trump’s advisers have privately complained that the lawyer is not helping his client’s cause. Mr. Trump, whose legal team is in flux, has told several people he thinks Mr. Tacopina is a “fighter.”As he heads into this consequential week, Mr. Trump finds himself in the unusual position of receiving support from nearly all factions of the Republican Party; even officials he considers enemies have condemned Mr. Bragg’s pursuit of Mr. Trump.“This seems to be more about the person than about the crime,” Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican of Louisiana, said on “Fox News Sunday.” Mr. Cassidy voted to convict Mr. Trump for his role instigating the Jan. 6 attack.Another surprising defender emerged in William P. Barr, the former attorney general who fell out bitterly with Mr. Trump because Mr. Barr refused to go along with his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. In a “Fox News Sunday” interview, Mr. Barr sharply criticized Mr. Bragg’s indictment and predicted it would set off a wave of politically motivated prosecutions.“I do think that this is a watershed moment, and I don’t think it’s going to end up good for the country,” he added.Mr. Barr did, however, offer some tongue-in-cheek advice for his former boss, who faces multiple investigations that may result in charges: It would be a “particularly bad idea” for Mr. Trump to appear on the stand.“He lacks all self-control,” Mr. Barr said. “And it would be very difficult to prepare him and keep him testifying in a prudent fashion.”William P. Barr with Mr. Trump in 2020. The two had a falling out after Mr. Barr would not support the former president’s plans to overturn his 2020 election loss.Anna Moneymaker for The New York TimesTo that end, Cyrus Vance Jr., the Manhattan district attorney who preceded Mr. Bragg and whose office led most of the investigation into the practices of Mr. Trump’s business, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he was “disturbed” that Mr. Trump had been attacking not just Mr. Bragg but also the judge in the case.Mr. Vance said, “I think if I were his lawyer — and believe me, no one has called up to ask for my advice — I would be mindful of not committing some other criminal offense like obstruction of governmental administration, which is interfering, by threat or otherwise, with the operation of government.”Mr. Bragg has said little publicly about the investigation or the criticisms leveled at him by Republicans. Last week, his office, in a letter to congressional Republicans who have threatened to investigate the actions of the district attorney’s office, said accusations that the investigation was politically motivated were “unfounded.” The letter, signed by the office’s general counsel, Leslie B. Dubeck, said that the charges against Mr. Trump “were brought by citizens of New York, doing their civic duty as members of a grand jury.”Knowing that Mr. Bragg is expected to hold a news conference at some point on Tuesday, Mr. Trump has scheduled his own for that evening, when he plans to be back at Mar-a-Lago. He is also expected to deliver remarks to supporters at his club, similar to his event last November announcing his third run for president.Some Trump allies have made clear they want any protests in New York to remain civil, particularly because Mr. Trump has called for his supporters to protest. His longest-serving adviser, Roger J. Stone Jr., urged supporters to be “peaceful” and “legal” if they showed up for a planned rally outside Trump Tower late Monday morning.Reporting was contributed by More

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      To Boldly Go Where No President Has Gone Before

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      Bret Stephens: Hi, Gail. I have a clear memory of Democrats defending Bill Clinton tooth and nail for lying under oath in the Paula Jones case, about his affair with Monica Lewinsky. At the time, they said it was “just about sex” and that Clinton lied to protect his family and marriage.Morally speaking, is that better than, worse than or equal to the allegation that Donald Trump falsified business records to cover his alleged affair with Stormy Daniels (and possibly another paramour, too)?Gail Collins: Bret, sex scandal aficionado that I am, I’m sorta tempted to go back and revisit Clinton’s argument that he didn’t lie about Monica Lewinsky because it doesn’t count as having sex if … well, no. Guess not.Bret: To say nothing of Clinton parsing the meaning of the word “is.”Gail: Still, I’d say the Stormy Daniels episode — an ongoing, well-financed cover-up during a presidential campaign — was worse.Bret: Hmm. Trump wasn’t president at the time of the alleged affair the way Clinton was. And Daniels wasn’t a starry-eyed 22-year-old intern whose life got destroyed in the process. And lying under oath is usually a felony, unlike falsifying business records, which is usually treated as a misdemeanor.Gail: If you want to argue that Trump’s not the worst sex-scandal offender, I’m fine with it. Won’t even mention Grover Cleveland …Bret: “Ma, ma, where’s my pa?” Always liked Grover.Gail: Of all the investigations into Trump’s egregious misconduct, this strikes me as almost minor compared with, say, trying to change presidential election results, urging a crowd of supporters to march on the Capitol or illegally taking, retaining and hiding secret government documents or …OK, taking a rest.Bret: Totally agree. My fear is that the indictment will focus the media spotlight on Trump, motivate his base, paralyze his Republican opponents and ultimately help him win the G.O.P. nomination. In the first poll after the indictment, Trump’s lead over his Republican rivals jumped. Maybe that will make it easier for Democrats to hold the White House next year, but it also potentially means we could get Benito Milhous Caligula back in office.The only thing that will hurt Trump is if he’s ignored in the press and beaten at the polls. Instead, we’re contributing to the problem just by speaking about it.Gail: OK, now I’m changing subjects. It hurts my heart to talk about this, but we have to consider the terrible school shooting in Nashville — it doesn’t seem to have moved the needle one centimeter on issues like banning assault weapons or 30-round magazines. Pro-gun lawmakers, in light of the Covenant School shooting, are once again arguing that schools would be safer if the teachers could have their own pistols.Bret: I’m not opposed to an armed cop or a well-trained security guard on school campuses, who might be able to respond much faster to an emergency than the police could. Teachers? Seems like a really, really bad idea.With respect to everything else, I’m sometimes inclined to simply give up. Gun control isn’t realistic in a country with more guns than people. Even if stringent gun control were somehow enacted, it would function roughly the same way stringent drug laws work: People who wanted to obtain guns illegally could easily get them. I think we ought to repeal the Second Amendment, or at least reinterpret it to mean that anyone who wants a gun must belong to a “well-regulated militia.” But in our lifetimes that’s a political pipe dream.So we’re left in the face of tragedies like Nashville’s feeling heartbroken, furious, speechless and helpless.Gail: Your impulse to give up the fight is probably sensible, but I just can’t go there. Gotta keep pushing; we can’t cave in to folks who think it’s un-American to require loaded weapons be stored where kids can’t get at them.Bret: Another side of me wants to agree with you. Let’s ban high-capacity magazines, raise the age threshold for gun purchases and heavily fine people if they fail to properly store weapons. I just wonder if it will make much of a difference.Gail: Well, it sure as hell wouldn’t hurt.Bret: Very true.Gail: Let’s move on before I get deeply depressed. We’re slowly creeping toward an election year — close enough that people who want to run for office for real have to start mobilizing. Anybody you really love/hate out there now?Bret: Next year is going to be a tough one for Senate Democrats. They’re defending 23 of the 34 seats that are up for grabs, including in ever-redder states like Montana and West Virginia.I’d love to see a serious Democratic challenger to Ted Cruz in Texas, and by serious I mean virtually anyone other than Beto O’Rourke. And I’d love to see Kari Lake run for a Senate seat in Arizona so that she can lose again.You?Gail: Funny, I was thinking the same thing about Ted Cruz the other night. Wonderful the way that man can bring us together.Bret: He even brings me closer to Trump. “Lyin’ Ted” was priceless.Gail: Another Senate Republican I hope gets a very serious challenger is Rick Scott of Florida, who made that first big proposal to consider slashing Social Security and Medicare.Bret: Good luck with that. Florida may now be redder than Texas.Gail: You’re right about the Democrats having to focus on defense. The endangered incumbent I’m rooting hardest for is Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who’s managed to be a powerful voice for both liberal causes and my reddish home state’s practical interests.Bret: I once got a note from Brown gently reproaching me for using the term Rust Belt about Ohio. The note was so charming, personable and fair that I remember thinking: “This man can’t have a future in American politics.”Gail: And as someone who’s complained bitterly about Joe Manchin over the years, I have to admit that keeping West Virginia in the Democratic column does require very creative and sometimes deeply irritating political performances.Bret: Aha. I knew you’d come around.I don’t know if you’ve followed this, but Manchin is now complaining bitterly that the Biden administration is trying to rewrite the terms of the Inflation Reduction Act, which, with Manchin’s vote, gave the president his biggest legislative win last year. The details are complicated, but the gist is that the administration is hanging him out to dry. Oh, and he’s also skeptical of Trump’s indictment. Don’t be totally surprised if Manchin becomes a Republican in order to save his political skin.Gail: Hmm, my valuation of said skin would certainly drop . …Bret: Which raises the question: How should partisan Democrats, or partisan Republicans, feel about the least ideologically reliable member of their own parties?Gail: Depends. Did they run as freethinkers who shouldn’t be relied on by their party for a vote? Manchin got elected in the first place by promising to be a Democrat who’d “get the federal government off our backs.” But often this explosion of independence comes as a postelection surprise.Bret: Good point. There should be truth in advertising.Gail: Do they — like Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona — forget their nonpartisanship when it comes to dipping into donations from partisan fund-raisers?And probably most important — is there a better option? If Sinema had to run for re-election this year, which she doesn’t, I would be a super-enthusiastic supporter if the other choice was Lake, that dreadful former talk show host.Any thoughts on your end?Bret: In my younger, more Republican days, I used to dislike ideological mavericks — they made things too complicated. Now that I’m older, I increasingly admire politicians who make things complicated. I know there’s a fair amount of opportunism and posturing in some of their position taking. But they also model a certain independence of thought and spirit that I find healthy in our Age of Lemmings.Gail: Hoping it’s maybe just the Decade of the Lemmings.Bret: If I had to draw up a list of the Senate heroes of my lifetime, they’d be Daniel Patrick Moynihan, John McCain, Howard Baker, Bob Kerrey and Joe Lieberman. And lately I’d have to add Mitt Romney. All were willing to break with their parties when it counted. How about you?Gail: Well, you may remember that a while back I was contemplating writing a book called “How Joe Lieberman Ruined Everything.”Bret: I recall you weren’t his biggest fan.Gail: Yeah, still blaming him for failing to give Al Gore the proper support in that 2000 recount. But I’ve come around on Mitt Romney. He’s become a strong, independent voice. Of course it’s easier to be brave when you’re a senator from a state that would keep re-electing you if you took a six-year vacation in the Swiss Alps. Nevertheless, I’ve apologized for all that obsessing about his putting the dog on the car roof.Bret: I came around on him too. I was very hard on him in 2012. Either he got better or I got wiser.Gail: I was a big admirer of John McCain. Will never forget following him on his travels when he first ran for president in 2000. He spent months and months driving around New Hampshire talking about campaign finance reform. From one tiny gathering to another. Of all the ambitious pols I’ve known he was the least focused on his own fortunes.Bret: I traveled with McCain on his international junkets. He was hilarious, gregarious, generous, gossipy — a study in being unstudied. If he had won the presidency, the Republican Party wouldn’t have gone insane, American democracy wouldn’t be at risk and Sarah Palin would be just another lame ex-veep.Gail: So, gotta end this with the obvious question, Bret. Republican presidential race! You’re a fan of Nikki Haley, but her campaign doesn’t seem to be going much of anywhere, is it? I know you’ve come to detest Ron DeSantis. Other options?Bret: Biden, cryonics or some small island in the South Atlantic, like St. Helena. Not necessarily in that order.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Fear and Bravado: Inside Trump’s Reaction to the Indictment

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      Rachel Quester and Anita Badejo and Marion Lozano and Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Amazon MusicAfter Donald J. Trump was indicted over his role in paying hush money to a porn star during the 2016 presidential campaign, he called the move an act of political persecution.But his impending arrest could actually make Mr. Trump a stronger candidate for 2024, the Times correspondent Maggie Haberman explains.On today’s episodeMaggie Haberman, a political correspondent for The New York Times.Former President Donald J. Trump at a rally in Texas on Tuesday. Over more than four decades, Mr. Trump has sued and been sued in civil court again and again. But he’s never been charged with a crime before.Christopher Lee for The New York TimesBackground readingMany of Mr. Trump’s potential opponents snapped into line behind him, showing just how hard it may be to persuade Republican voters to choose an alternative.Mr. Trump reacted to his indictment by returning to his time-tested legal strategy: attack and delay.There are a lot of ways to listen to The Daily. Here’s how.We aim to make transcripts available the next workday after an episode’s publication. You can find them at the top of the page.Maggie Haberman More

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      The 2024 Election Is Already Here

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      Listen and follow ‘The Run-Up’Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Amazon MusicPremiering April 6It may seem way too early to be thinking about next year’s presidential election — and it is too soon to ask who’s going to win. But actually, it’s the perfect time to understand what the parties took away from the last election and how that’s already shaping their plans for the next one.For the past few months, Astead W. Herndon has been reporting from inside the political establishment, where party leaders, donors and activists are already trying to influence the 2024 election — and while voters are less likely to pay attention and lines of allegiance are scrambled.“The Run-Up” returns Thursday, April 6. See you there.Your HostASTEAD W. HERNDON is a national politics reporter for The New York Times. He was an integral part of The Times’s reporting on the 2020 presidential election and 2022 midterm elections. Before joining The Times, Mr. Herndon wrote for The Boston Globe, including as a national politics reporter in the Washington office, where he covered the Trump White House.Photo Illustration by The New York Times. Photo by Bryan Anselm for The New York TimesAbout ‘The Run-Up’First launched in August 2016, three months before the election of Donald Trump, “The Run-Up” is The Times’s flagship political podcast. The host, Astead W. Herndon, grapples with the big ideas already animating the 2024 presidential election. Because it’s always about more than who wins and loses. And the next election has already started.Last season, “The Run-Up” focused on grass-roots voters and shifting attitudes among the bases of both political parties. This season, we go inside the party establishment.New episodes on Thursdays.Credits“The Run-Up” is hosted by More

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      Trump Flourishes in the Glare of His Indictment

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      The former president’s appetite for attention has been fundamental to his identity for decades. Where others may focus on the hazards of a criminal case, he raises money, promotes his campaign and works to reduce the case to a cliffhanging spectacle.WASHINGTON — Since long before he entered the White House, former President Donald J. Trump has been an any-publicity-is-good-publicity kind of guy. In fact, he once told advisers, “There’s no bad press unless you’re a pedophile.” Hush money for a porn star? Evidently not an exception to that rule.And so, while no one wants to be indicted, Mr. Trump in one sense finds himself exactly where he loves to be — in the center ring of the circus, with all the spotlights on him. He has spent the days since a grand jury called him a potential criminal milking the moment for all it’s worth, savoring the attention as no one else in modern American politics would.He has blitzed out one fund-raising email after another with the kind of headlines other politicians would dread, like “BREAKING: PRESIDENT TRUMP INDICTED” and “RUMORED DETAILS OF MY ARREST” and “Yes I’ve been indicted, BUT” — the “but” being but you can still give him money. And when it turned out that they did give him money, a total of $4 million by his campaign’s count in the 24 hours following his indictment, he trumpeted that as loudly as he could too.Rather than hide from the indignity of turning himself into authorities this week, Mr. Trump obligingly sent out a schedule as if for a campaign tour, letting everyone know he would fly on Monday from Florida to New York, then on Tuesday surrender for mug shots, fingerprinting and arraignment. In case that were not enough to draw the eye, he plans to then fly back to Florida to make a prime-time evening statement at Mar-a-Lago, surrounded by the cameras and microphones he covets.Secret Service Agents stand outside of Mar-a-Lago last week. Donald Trump will fly on Monday from Florida to New York.Josh Ritchie for The New York TimesNever mind that any defense attorney worth the law degree would prefer he keep quiet; no one who knows Mr. Trump could reasonably expect that. He has already trashed the prosecutor (“degenerate psychopath”) and the judge in the case (“HATES ME”) and absent a court-issued gag order surely will continue to. His public comments could ultimately be used against him in a court of law, but to him that hardly seems like a reason to stay silent.“The trick, of course, is to take up all the air — demand all the attention, all the time, make everything, including his own indictment, into an opportunistic moment,” said Gwenda Blair, author of “The Trumps,” the definitive multigenerational biography of the former president’s family. So far, she added, he has done so “by combining exaggerated hyperbole with a claim to ultimate patriotism and religious zeal — quite the ultimate power package.”By treating the case as a spectacle, rather than a serious issue, he may discredit it, at least in the eyes of his own supporters. Rather than hang his head in shame, as many facing the possibility of prison might, he frames it as just another Trumpian drama in a life filled with them, the latest reality show cliffhanger — will he get off or will his enemies get him?But the ratings-obsessed star’s need for the limelight invariably will draw it away from other issues of major import. The United States is in the middle of a nuclear-edged clash with Russia in Ukraine and Moscow has just arrested an American reporter, provoking another hostage crisis. Taiwan’s president is visiting the United States at a moment of bristling tension with Beijing. Just Friday, America’s top general warned of the increasing convergence of a hostile Chinese-Russian-Iranian axis.The indictment comes “at the exact moment when our military and economic power is being profoundly challenged by our adversaries,” said Heather A. Conley, president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a Washington-based organization focused on trans-Atlantic relations. “From a national security perspective, we need to keep our eye on the ball. But unfortunately, our gaze on Tuesday will be on our own domestic turmoil.”For President Biden, who has assiduously avoided commenting on Mr. Trump’s legal travails, the first criminal prosecution of a former commander in chief will surely make it that much harder to generate interest in his dutiful speeches promoting the latest bridge project or other achievements he hopes to tout as he prepares to kick off a re-election campaign.In today’s sizzle-saturated media environment, White House officials understand perfectly well that an incumbent president doing his job can hardly compete for attention with a former president possibly doing time. Instead, they hope the electorate appreciates a leader who ignores the Sturm und Drang to focus on matters like the economy, health care and national security.Gerald Ford reading a proclamation granting former president Richard Nixon “a full, free and absolute pardon” for all “offenses against the United States” during the period of his presidency.Associated PressIn some ways, Mr. Biden faces the challenge that President Gerald R. Ford did when he decided to pardon his predecessor, Richard M. Nixon, in the Watergate scandal. One of Mr. Ford’s advisers asked the Watergate prosecutor how long it would take to bring Mr. Nixon to trial if he were indicted and was told as long as a year. To Mr. Ford, it seemed too costly to have the country absorbed by a former president in the dock for so long.But those were different times and different presidents. Mr. Nixon had resigned in disgrace, his party had abandoned him and he grudgingly offered a measure of contrition when pardoned, even if not nearly enough for many. There was a sense of a chapter closing. Mr. Trump feels anything but contrite and, instead of sliding into exile, is mounting a comeback campaign with the support of many in his party..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Mr. Biden vowed long ago not to pardon Mr. Trump and could not do so anyway in a state case like the one in New York or the election case being investigated in Georgia; moreover, it remains unthinkable at this point that he would entertain the notion in the two federal inquiries still underway.While Mr. Ford sought national healing and Mr. Nixon effectively accepted the point, Mr. Trump feeds division. Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said the danger now is a “partisan overhang” that makes it even more difficult for the parties to come together on important issues like raising the debt ceiling.“Things were already extremely partisan and polarized, particularly with the House, and I think this just exacerbates it and everything now will take on even more of a tinge,” he said. “It might increase the odds that House committees go after the president and his family or other members of his administration.”It is possible, of course, that America has seen so much Trump dramaturgy over the years that this has become the new normal and it may not upend the political system as much as might be expected. So far, at least, the indictment has not resulted in the sort of mass demonstrations Mr. Trump seemed to be calling for.If there is no other indictment, and this case devolves into the usual series of motions and hearings and other preliminary skirmishes, it may not be as captivating until a trial actually opens, which could be months away. And if that is the case, some of Washington’s old hands say, Mr. Biden and Congress could still focus on the business at hand.“As much as Trump and his team are going to try and make everything all about him, I believe that there is still enough of a governing coalition on the Hill that members will manage to get at least the bare necessities done,” said Jim Manley, a former senior adviser to Senate Democrats.“While the Trump sycophants in the House are going to make a lot of noise and throw up a lot of smoke,” he added, “I don’t foresee Congress blowing past the debt limit, for instance, because of Trump-caused chaos post indictment.”Mr. Trump’s appetite for attention has been fundamental to his identity for decades. As a celebrity developer, he happily played out his marital issues and affairs in the New York tabloids; his 1990 split with his first wife Ivana made the front page 11 days in a row. He loved making cameo appearances in movies and television shows from “Sex and the City” to “Home Alone 2: Lost in New York.” He slapped his name on everything from hotels, golf courses and towers to steaks, bottled water and neckties.As president, he appeared on camera far more often than his predecessors, rarely missing an opportunity to make the story of the day about himself. During his first Senate impeachment trial, for abuse of power by pressuring Ukraine’s government to investigate Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump suggested he would show up on the Senate floor to make his case himself, to the horror of lawyers who managed to talk him out of it.When the Covid-19 pandemic hit, Mr. Trump eagerly conducted daily news briefings for nearly two months, dispensing misinformation and stoking divisions, to the horror of doctors and allies who only belatedly talked him into stopping. Nonetheless, he boasted about the size of the audience he was drawing as Americans were dying by the hundreds of thousands. When he himself got Covid and then recovered, he toyed with the idea of ripping off his shirt to reveal a Superman T-shirt to demonstrate his virility.Donald Trump answering questions in a coronavirus briefing at the White House in April 2020.Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times“The most unique thing about the former president is that he values the image surrounding an event more than its tangible quality,” said Michael D’Antonio, another Trump biographer. “The moment will pass, but the article, videotape, photo, or book will remain. That’s what he’ll care about more — unless of course he goes to prison.”But Barbara A. Res, who worked for Mr. Trump for 18 years as an executive at his development company and later broke with him, does not think Mr. Trump expects to be found guilty. “He’s incapable of believing that he’s wrong,” she said. And she doubted he would comply even with a gag order.“To be honest, nobody tells Donald what to do. Really,” Ms. Res said. A judge, she said, may hesitate to enforce a contempt of court order. “Even people that hate Trump or dislike Trump would probably think it was not a good idea to put him in jail for contempt of a gag order,” she said. And so, she concluded, “He will not shut up.” More

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      Asa Hutchinson Announces Presidential Bid

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      The former governor of Arkansas, a prominent Trump critic within the Republican Party, has been testing the waters in Iowa.Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas, joined the race for the Republican nomination for president on Sunday, banking that in a crowded field, enough G.O.P. voters will be searching for an outspoken critic of Donald J. Trump to lift his dark-horse candidacy.“What struck me as I was in Orange County, California, and as I was in Iowa for three days this week, was that the Trump factor really didn’t come up,” he said in an interview on Sunday, after he announced his candidacy on ABC’s “This Week.” The voters, he said, “are talking about things that matter to them, which is the economy, which is the fentanyl crisis that we have, and the relationship and leadership of America on the world stage.”“They’re asking tough questions,” he added, “but it’s not about the political dynamics of Trump.”Mr. Hutchinson has made several trips to Iowa, where he has tested out what he has called a message of “consistent conservatism” to Republican voters who have flocked to Mr. Trump in the past two elections. Recent polling has shown Mr. Trump’s lead among primary voters surging as his legal peril has grown. The former president is expected to be arraigned on Tuesday in Manhattan on charges that he falsified business records and violated New York campaign finance law to cover up hush-money payments to a pornographic film actress in the final days of the 2016 election.With several other cases pending, Mr. Hutchinson appears to be betting that external forces will trip up Mr. Trump’s third run for the White House. Other anti-Trump Republicans, such as the former Maryland governor Larry Hogan, have declined to run. And the Republicans who have jumped in or are preparing to — Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor — have carefully avoided direct criticism of the front-runner.Mr. Hogan said he decided against running because he thought the voices in the party who oppose a second Trump presidency needed to rally around a single alternative. Mr. Hutchinson disagreed, saying multiple voices needed to emerge to give Republican voters a choice.“This is the most unpredictable election cycle in my lifetime for sure,” he said Sunday. “It’s unpredictable as to what develops with Donald Trump. It’s unpredictable as to what candidates get in there and whether they can be competitive.”Mr. Hutchinson is not a moderate Republican. He signed a ban on abortion that makes no exceptions for pregnancies that result from rape or incest, though he expressed some reservations. He has pressed for the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. And he led a task force convened by the National Rifle Association after the massacre of schoolchildren at Sandy Hook Elementary School in 2012 to come up with a response to blunt the push for gun control..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.On Sunday morning, he embraced Arkansas’s abortion ban.“If that’s what they want to attack me on, then I’m proud to stand squarely on my pro-life position,” he said.But his government experience is broader than other candidates in the race. In addition to his two terms as governor, he served in the House, led the Drug Enforcement Administration and headed the Border and Transportation Security Directorate of the Department of Homeland Security when it was created after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.“Those experiences are central to the campaign because they address some of the greatest concerns of Americans, which is we need to secure the border,” he said.But his outspoken criticism of the former president has set him apart in a Trump-dominated party where dissent has not been tolerated. He has said Mr. Trump and those who supported his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election should not have positions of power. He stood against the Republican National Committee’s censure of now former-Representatives Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois for serving as the only two Republicans on the House committee investigating the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. And he called Mr. Trump’s election denial a “recipe for disaster” for the party.He was one of the very few Republicans to issue a statement after Mr. Trump’s indictment last week that did not dismiss the charges as political.“It is a dark day for America when a former President is indicted on criminal charges,” he wrote on Thursday. “While the grand jury found credible facts to support the charges, it is important that the presumption of innocence follows Mr. Trump. We need to wait on the facts and for our American system of justice to work like it does for thousands of Americans every day.” More

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      Maggie Haberman on Donald Trump

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      We talk with a Trump reporter to prepare you for the week when he will likely be arrested.Donald Trump is expected to fly to New York this week from his home in Florida to be arrested. For now, the specific charges are unknown because the indictment is under seal, but they involve his role in the payment of hush money during the 2016 presidential campaign to cover up an extramarital affair.To help you get ready for the week ahead, I talked with my colleague Maggie Haberman, who’s known for her behind-the-scenes reporting on Trump.David: You’ve reported that Trump and his aides were surprised by the news and didn’t expect an indictment for a few weeks — if at all. What’s the atmosphere like at Mar-a-Lago on the days after?Maggie: They’re still trying to assess what is happening on a few fronts. One is the political front, which I’d say they were most prepared on.Another is the legal front, which is messy because his team has had a lot of infighting, and there’s finger pointing about why they were so caught off guard. The lawyers also don’t yet know the charges because it’s a sealed indictment.Finally, there is the emotional front. While Trump is not said to be throwing things, he is extremely angry and his family is, not surprisingly, rattled.The other casesDavid: My instinct is that this indictment may make an indictment in one of the other cases — the investigations into Trump’s actions in Georgia after the 2020 election, his involvement in the Jan. 6 attack and his handling of classified documents — more likely. After all, one of the issues apparently giving pause to prosecutors was the idea that they would be the first ever to indict an ex-president. That potential barrier is gone. Nobody can know what will happen in those other cases, but does that basic dynamic seem correct?Maggie: You raise a point some lawyers have raised privately. All the prosecutors were concerned about being first with a historical precedent. And now there is a broken seal of sorts. That said, Republicans who dislike Trump are saying privately they wish this case wasn’t first because they view it as more trivial than the others.David: Is there one of those other investigations that most worries Trumpworld?Maggie: Georgia has bothered Trump personally for a while, possibly because there are tapes of him telling officials to find votes. Some of his aides are very worried about the documents investigation that the Justice Department has. It’s a clearer-cut issue, and a federal judge overseeing grand jury matters showed in a recent ruling that she’s taking the government’s claims seriously.David: Trump has faced major legal threats to his business career in the past and always managed to escape criminal charges. How does this compare to those earlier threats?Maggie: Trump has been trying to avoid being indicted since he was first criminally investigated in the 1970s. He actually hasn’t faced enormous criminal legal threats since then. He has instead operated in a world in which so much is based on machine politics and what Marie Brenner, the journalist, once described as New York’s “favor economy.”A project involving two of his kids was investigated by the Manhattan district attorney about a decade ago, but for a variety of reasons there were no indictments. Then, when he was president, he was protected because of a Justice Department opinion against indicting a sitting president. It’s worth remembering his company was convicted on 17 counts of tax fraud and other crimes last year. So this is something of a slow roll.Trump up, DeSantis downDavid: The last few weeks of Republican primary polls have looked pretty good for Trump: He’s up, and Ron DeSantis is down. Depending on which polls you believe, Trump either has a sizable lead or the two are close. Apart from the indictment, why do Trump and his team think he’s surged? And how do they see the politics of an indictment playing out?Maggie: I think nearly every national poll shows Trump with a sizable lead. Polls this early aren’t great predictors, but they are a snapshot of what has been pretty durable support Trump has among Republican primary voters.Trump’s team thinks it’s had a pretty good few months politically — it has, in fairness — and that DeSantis has struggled to gain traction. That is striking since DeSantis has been on a book tour. Trump’s team believes this indictment will help him raise money and could give him some boost — and maybe political antibodies when and if future indictments come from other investigations.It was lost on no one on Trump’s team that DeSantis — after initially trying to minimize a possible indictment as an issue that voters care about and speaking about it later than other Republicans — rushed out with a statement once an indictment happened attacking it as “un-American” and saying Florida wouldn’t help extradite Trump. It tells you a great deal about the grip Trump still has.More on TrumpTrump has already lashed out at the judge in the case, leaning into his time-tested strategy: attack and delay.The last few days delivered a rare legal reckoning for two forces that have reshaped politics: Trump and Fox News, which suffered a major setback in a defamation case.Trump’s campaign is betting that the press exposure will help his 2024 presidential bid, Politico reports.Foreign leaders still think Trump could bounce back.“Saturday Night Live” tackled the indictment.NEWSWar in UkraineChina is studying Russia’s war in Ukraine as it considers a potential invasion of Taiwan.Ukraine’s security service charged an Orthodox church leader with supporting Russia.Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter detained by Russia, knew the risks of journalism there but felt a deep connection to the country.Other Big StoriesThe death toll from the tornadoes that tore through the South and Midwest this weekend rose to 23. UConn beat Miami to reach the men’s N.C.A.A. championship game. The team will face San Diego State, which defeated Florida Atlantic on a buzzer-beater.Iowa’s win over South Carolina in the women’s basketball tournament drew 5.5 million viewers on ESPN, the largest audience ever for a semifinal.Paul Vallas is highlighting his record leading troubled public schools as he runs to be Chicago’s mayor.FROM OPINIONA San Francisco apartment complex is an affordable-housing success story. But how it became one should worry liberals, Ezra Klein writes.Euthanizing an ailing pet is the right choice. It’s also a formula for shame and regret, Karen Fine argues.The Sunday question: Can protests save Israel’s democracy?Israelis’ disciplined grass-roots resistance succeeded in forcing the government to delay its judicial overhaul plan, says CNN’s Frida Ghitis. But the government remains determined, and the debate that underlies the crisis — about how Israel should treat the Palestinians — may divide the opposition, Aaron David Miller and Daniel Kurtzer argue in Foreign Policy.MORNING READSLow-lying areas in Venice still flood.Laetitia Vancon for The New York TimesSaving Venice: The city has amazing new sea walls, but floods aren’t its only problem.Locker-room celebrations: A win means water, everywhere.Pitch clocks: See how baseball’s new rules are changing the game.Vows: Two acrobats fell for each other.Sunday routine: A milliner visits Fanelli Cafe and Film Forum.Advice from Wirecutter: These are the best water bottles.Lives lived: Margot Stern Strom was a schoolteacher, then started an organization that challenged teenagers to understand the roots of injustice. She died at 81.BOOKSRachel Stern for The New York Times“Mating”: People thinking about long-term romance are sharing this ’90s novel.By the Book: The author Sarah Bakewell tends to avoid thrillers and mysteries.Our editors’ picks: “The Half Known Life,” which examines ideas of paradise around the world, and eight other books.Times best sellers: “The Anthropocene Reviewed,” by John Green, makes a first appearance on the paperback nonfiction list.THE SUNDAY TIMES MAGAZINEJuan Arredondo for The New York Times Magazine.On the cover: The challenge of counting every birth and death.Ethicist: Her husband no longer wants sex. Is that grounds for divorce?Eat: South American sopa de maní is soulful and steadying.Read the full issue.THE WEEK AHEADWhat to Watch ForFor Western Christians, today is Palm Sunday, the start of Holy Week.Iowa and Louisiana State will play for the women’s N.C.A.A. basketball championship this afternoon, and the men’s final is tomorrow, pitting UConn against San Diego State.Trump is expected to surrender in Manhattan on Tuesday.Two major elections will be held on Tuesday: A runoff will decide the mayor’s race in Chicago, and Wisconsin will fill a vacancy on its state Supreme Court.Passover begins at sundown Wednesday.The U.S. government will release monthly jobs numbers on Friday.The U.S. stock markets will be closed on Good Friday.What to Cook This WeekDavid Malosh for The New York TimesEmily Weinstein recently found herself with leftover herbs. This week, her Five Weeknight Dishes newsletter is filled with recipes to use them: one-pan crispy chicken and chickpeas, which calls for herby yogurt on the side; baked chicken and feta meatballs; and coconut-caramel braised tofu, a quick vegan meal that would be superb with basil and cilantro.NOW TIME TO PLAYThe pangrams from yesterday’s Spelling Bee were anticlimactic and claimant. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Astounded (five letters).Take the news quiz to see how well you followed the week’s headlines.Here’s today’s Wordle.Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times. — DavidHere’s today’s front page. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. More