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      in World Politics

      Turkey’s Timely Elections: Erdoğanism Without Erdoğan Now?

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      The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media. More

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      in Elections

      Turkey’s Earthquake Will Not Delay Elections in Country, Erdogan Says

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      The Feb. 6 earthquake’s vast destruction will present a challenge when it comes to mounting a viable election. But President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the vote would go on in May, “God willing.”ADANA, Turkey — President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made clear on Wednesday that he does not intend to delay crucial elections in Turkey because of last month’s devastating earthquake, saying they would go ahead as previously announced on May 14.It was the first time the Turkish leader has publicly mentioned a polling date since the catastrophic quake on Feb. 6, which raised questions over whether he would seek to delay the presidential and parliamentary vote. The quake ravaged a large area of southern Turkey and northern Syria, killing more than 51,000 people so far. The number is rising daily.“This nation — the time is coming on May 14 — will do what is necessary, God willing,” Mr. Erdogan told members of his ruling Justice and Development Party. He had announced the same date before the quake hit.The vast destruction caused by the 7.8-magnitude temblor and a powerful aftershock have posed a new political challenge for Mr. Erdogan, Turkey’s paramount politician for two decades, while drastically complicating the logistics of holding elections with so many communities in ruins.Mr. Erdogan’s popularity had sagged over the last year because of a spike in inflation that ate into the budgets of Turkish families. And many quake survivors have criticized his government’s initial response to the country’s largest natural disaster in decades as slow and inadequate.The president has acknowledged in recent days that the government’s initial response was lacking, while emphasizing the quake’s magnitude.The election is critical to the political future of Mr. Erdogan, a towering political figure at home whose international profile has grown since the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year.Civilians search for their relatives under a collapsed building in the city of Kahramanmaras in February.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesHe has frustrated other members of NATO by refusing to join Western sanctions aimed at punishing Russia for the invasion and blocking the alliance’s expansion to include Sweden and Finland.But Western officials acknowledge that his relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has yielded diplomatic benefits such as a deal to allow the export of Ukrainian grain.Deadly Quake in Turkey and SyriaA 7.8-magnitude earthquake on Feb. 6, with its epicenter in Gaziantep, Turkey, has become one of the deadliest natural disasters of the century.Near the Epicenter: Amid scenes of utter devastation in the ancient Turkish city of Antakya, thousands are trying to make sense of an earthquake that left them with no home and no future.Another Quake Hits: A 5.2-magnitude earthquake struck southern Turkey on Feb. 27, shaking parts of the same area stricken by the devastating Feb. 6 quake.Builders Under Scrutiny: The deadly quake in Turkey has raised painful questions over who is to blame for shoddy construction and whether better building standards could have saved lives.Studying the Quake: Scientists analyzing the disaster in Turkey and Syria may bring new insights to a seismic zone that is strikingly similar: the San Andreas Fault in California.An election victory for Mr. Erdogan would give him a third presidential term, and a strong showing by his party would help him to keep pushing his policies through Parliament.But it remains unclear how the earthquake and the government’s response have affected Mr. Erdogan’s standing with voters.Emre Erdogan, a professor of political science at Istanbul Bilgi University, said he did not expect the quake to drastically affect the roughly 40 percent of voters who support the president’s party.“His electorate is conservative, with a strong belief in fate,” said Professor Erdogan, who is not related to the president. “They might rationalize any failure they witnessed, particularly with a fatalistic mind-set that disasters are inevitable.”So far, Mr. Erdogan has not directly addressed accusations that the death toll was increased by poor construction enabled by the weak enforcement of building codes. The government has announced legal investigations of hundreds of building contractors, and some have been detained.Now, the government must figure out how to hold a viable election in the wake of a disaster that wrecked more than 200,000 buildings and displaced millions of people. Exactly how that will work remains unclear.In areas hit by the quake, many public buildings that would normally serve as polling places are damaged. Many voters have fled the quake zone for other parts of the country, making it hard for them to cast votes in their home districts.Voter rolls will need to be updated to account for the dead and the large number of people who are still missing.A stadium converted to a camp where earthquake survivors took shelter in the city of Adiyaman in February. The earthquake displaced millions of people.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesThis week, a delegation from Turkey’s High Election Council, which oversees the vote, has been visiting quake-stricken areas to explore whether shipping containers can be used as polling places and how displaced people can cast ballots for their home districts, according to state-run news media.Experts said that holding a viable election in such conditions was possible, but would take tremendous organization.“If the current law and regulations are upheld, I don’t see a big problem in holding elections,” said Volkan Aslan, a lecturer in constitutional law at Istanbul University.Names of the dead can be easily deleted from the voter rolls, he said. And photo ID checks and signatures at polling stations can help prevent fraud.Legally, the vote must be held on or before June 18, but Mr. Erdogan can set an earlier date. His announcement on Wednesday did not begin the official process of setting the election in place, but he still has time to do that.A coalition of six opposition parties has joined forces to try to unseat Mr. Erdogan, but they have yet to announce their candidate.Critics have accused Mr. Erdogan of eroding state institutions and pushing Turkey toward authoritarianism. Signs have emerged in recent weeks that his government is seeking to quash dissent as the vote approaches.Last weekend, fans of some of the country’s largest soccer clubs chanted antigovernment slogans during games, yelling “government, resign!” and “Lies, lies, lies! It’s been 20 years, resign!” One of Mr. Erdogan’s top political allies suggested that games be held without fans, and the supporters of one large club that joined the chants have been barred from attending a game scheduled for Saturday.Mr. Erdogan’s interior minister, Suleyman Soylu, has deemed the chanting a security threat.Mr. Erdogan on a poster in Istanbul in January. He is running for a third term as president.Erdem Sahin/EPA, via ShutterstockBen Hubbard More

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      Anger Over Quake Response Challenges Erdogan Ahead of Election

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      A furor is building among some survivors over the government’s handling of the crisis. “I have been voting for this government for 20 years, and I’m telling everyone about my anger,” said one. “I will never forgive them.”GAZIANTEP, Turkey — A powerful earthquake struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, killing more than 17,000 people, exposing government incompetence and fueling an economic crisis. Amid the turmoil, a young, charismatic politician rode a wave of public anger to become prime minister in 2003.That politician was Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Now, as president, Mr. Erdogan faces challenges similar to those that brought down his predecessors — posing what is perhaps the greatest threat of his two decades in power to his political future.The deadliest earthquake to strike Turkey in almost a century killed at least 20,000 people this past week, with the bodies of countless others still buried in the rubble. It hit after a year of persistently high inflation that has impoverished Turkish families, leaving many with scarce resources to bounce back.The quake’s aftermath has highlighted how much Mr. Erdogan has reshaped the Turkish state, analysts said. Critics accuse him of pushing the country toward autocracy by weakening civil rights and eroding the independence of state institutions, like the Foreign Ministry and the central bank. And in a series of moves aimed at undercutting his rivals and centralizing control, he has restricted institutions like the army that could have helped with the earthquake response while stocking others with loyalists.Mr. Erdogan acknowledged on Friday that his government’s initial response to the disaster had been slow, and anger was building among some survivors, a sentiment that could hamper his bid to remain in power in elections expected on May 14.“I have been voting for this government for 20 years, and I’m telling everyone about my anger,” said Mikail Gul, 53, who lost five family members in a building collapse. “I will never forgive them.”Residents searched for their relatives in a collapsed building in Kahramanmaras, near the epicenter of the quake, on Friday.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesMr. Erdogan assessed the earthquake damage in Kahramanmaras on Wednesday.Adem Altan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe president, who faced harsh criticism in 2021 over his government’s failure to control disastrous wildfires, has long portrayed himself as a leader in touch with the common citizen. He visited communities hit hard by the quake in recent days. Dressed in black, his face grim, he visited the wounded and comforted people who had lost their homes and emphasized the magnitude of the crisis.“We are face to face with one of the greatest disasters in our history,” he said on Friday during a visit to Adiyaman Province. “It is a reality that we could not intervene as fast as we wished.”The 7.8 magnitude earthquake — the most powerful in Turkey in decades — and hundreds of aftershocks toppled buildings along a 250-mile-long swath in the south, destroying thousands of buildings and causing billions of dollars in damage. Across the border in Syria, nearly 4,000 dead have been counted, a toll that is expected to rise significantly.“This is the largest-scale disaster that Turkey has to manage, and, inevitably, this will create a backlash against the government,” said Sinan Ulgen, the director of Edam, an Istanbul-based think tank. “But much will depend on how effectively it can address the needs of the affected population.”A man mourning the death of his father in Kahramanmaras on Friday.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesMany residents of the disaster zone have expressed frustration with the government’s response, saying that in some areas, the state was nowhere to be seen during the initial aftermath.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesThe Turkish government has begun an extensive aid operation, dispatching 141,000 aid and rescue workers to search for the dead and wounded, to distribute food, blankets and diapers and to erect tents for the tens of thousands of homeless, many of them sleeping in cars to avoid the subzero winter chill.Deadly Quake in Turkey and SyriaA 7.8-magnitude earthquake on Feb. 6, with its epicenter in Gaziantep, Turkey, has become one of the deadliest natural disasters of the century.A Devastating Event: The quake, one of the deadliest since 2000, rippled through neighboring countries; an area along the Syrian-Turkish border was hit particularly hard.From the Scene: Thousands of people have been killed, and dozens of cities have been gutted. Here is how witnesses described the disaster.A Desperate Search: When buildings fell in Antakya, Turkey, families poured in from all over to help. Videos capture the dig for survivors.Syrian Refugees: Millions of people fled the war in Syria for the safety of neighboring Turkey. Now, those killed in the quake are being returned home.Nevertheless, many survivors have expressed frustration with the government’s response, saying the state was nowhere to be found during the initial aftermath, leaving residents alone to find shelter and free trapped loved ones from collapsed buildings.The scarcity of trained rescue squads and heavy machinery during the critical first days most likely increased the death toll because many people who could have been saved were not.When government agencies arrived, residents said, their equipment seemed insufficient and they failed to coordinate the efforts of volunteers who were already struggling to help survivors.For two days after the quake, Mr. Gul said his family lacked food and water and felt helpless amid the destruction.“The house next to us collapsed and there was a girl inside saying, ‘Save me! save me!’” he said.The girl was saved, but Mr. Gul and his relatives had to dig out their five dead family members, he said.He had worked in Germany for 20 years, funneling his savings into 10 apartments in the city of Kahramanmaras, near the quake’s epicenter, so he could live off the rent. But all of the apartments were destroyed, and he has to start over.“I don’t know what I’m going to do,” he said.Distributing aid in the southern city of Antakya on Wednesday.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesTurkish soldiers joined a rescue operation in Kahramanmaras on Friday.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesDuring his two decades as prime minister and president, Mr. Erdogan has argued that changes to the way Turkey was run were necessary to protect it from a range of domestic and foreign threats, including military coups and terrorist groups.He has also restricted the army, which played a key role in the government’s response to the 1999 earthquake.Turker Erturk, a former Navy admiral who was a commander in the crisis center set up after that quake, said in an interview that the army had swiftly intervened. But in the years since, Mr. Erdogan’s government had limited that ability and the army had stopped planning and training for it, he said.After Monday’s quake, the government called on the army only after public criticism, according to Mr. Erturk.“It is because of one-man rule,” he said. “In authoritarian governments, those decisions are made at the very top, and they wait for his commands.”On Friday, the army said in a tweet that its soldiers had been helping “from the first day” and now had more than 25,000 soldiers deployed. But their presence has not been obvious in many of the hardest-hit areas.Leading the government’s earthquake response is the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, or AFAD, which critics say Mr. Erdogan has stocked with loyalists and empowered at the expense of other organizations, like the Turkish Red Crescent.AFAD, the agency leading the government’s earthquake response, set up shelters for the homeless on the edge of Antakya on Thursday.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesA family gathered around a fire to stay warm in Antakya on Wednesday.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThe earthquake has also led to increased scrutiny of the government’s use of construction codes aimed at preventing buildings from collapsing, according to analystsAlthough no one can predict the precise timing of an earthquake, seismologists have been warning for years that a big one was expected in this region.Three days before the quake, a prominent geologist, Naci Gorur, wrote on Twitter that he was concerned that other seismic activity in Turkey had put pressure on the faults near the epicenter of Monday’s tremor. He even posted a map pinning some of the locations that would be the hardest hit if his predictions came to pass.After the quake, he tweeted again, saying: “As geologists, we grew exhausted of repeating that this earthquake was coming. No one even cared what we were saying.”Following the 1999 quake, Turkey strengthened its construction codes to make buildings more earthquake resistant.But the zone devastated by the recent quakes is dotted with areas where some buildings survived while others nearby — some relatively new — completely collapsed, raising questions about whether some contractors had cut corners.A damaged artist’s studio in Antakya.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesThe body of an earthquake victim at the entrance to a mosque in Antakya.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesAt one collapsed apartment block this week, volunteer construction workers spotted what they said was inferior rebar and they broke up chunks of concrete with their hands, saying it was poor quality.In the days since, a lawyers’ association has asked prosecutors in Kahramanmaras to identify contractors who built buildings that collapsed and inspectors who checked them so they can be investigated for possible criminal violations. Prosectors in Gaziantep have started collecting rubble samples for their own investigation.The earthquake left behind billions of dollars in damage, and government plans will require billions more at a time when the state budget is already strained.Before the quake, Mr. Erdogan’s government unleashed billions of dollars in new spending aimed at cushioning the blow of high inflation to citizens before the election, a cash injection that some economists predicted could tip the country into recession this year.On top of economic hardship, the earthquake will deepen Turks’ distress, and not in a way that makes them feel that they are contributing to a greater cause, said Selim Koru, an analyst at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey.“This, by its nature, comes out of nowhere, and it makes people even more miserable, and not just in the earthquake zone,” he said. “The economy is going to suffer, and I’m not sure it gives that suffering any meaning.”Searching for clothing in a donation pile in Antakya.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesWatching the search and rescue operation in Antakya.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThe earthquake’s proximity to the presidential and parliamentary elections that must be held on or before June 18 could lead to other challenges.The Reuters news agency quoted an unnamed Turkish official on Thursday as saying the earthquake’s devastation posed “serious difficulties” for the vote. It was the first hint that the government could seek to postpone it.Trying to unseat Mr. Erdogan is a coalition of six opposition parties that want to bolster the economy and restore independence to state institutions. They have already started trying to turn the quake response into an election issue.But even some angry voters still trust Mr. Erdogan.“We failed this test,” said Ismail Ozaslan, 58, a long-haul truck driver in a park in Gaziantep where part of his family was cramped inside a tent. “We are like patients left to die. There is no management here.”But his criticism of local and national officials, whom he accused of corruption and neglect, stopped short of Mr. Erdogan.“It’s like a building where the roof is strong but the pillars are rotten,” he said. “We don’t have a chance other than Erdogan. May God grant him a long life.”The damaged Kurtulus mosque in Gaziantep.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesSafak Timur More

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      in Elections

      As Turkey Elections Loom, Erdogan Fights for Political Future

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      President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to soften the blow of inflation on the population and using legal threats to bolster his position ahead of a vote that could reshape his country.Just months before pivotal elections that could reshape Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy, the government is spending billions of dollars in state funds to bolster President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing party at the ballot box while unleashing an array of legal threats to weaken those who seek to unseat him.Some economists call the spending spree unsustainable, and potentially harmful, as Mr. Erdogan tries to soften the blow of hyperinflation on Turkish families in the run-up to the vote.Additionally, recent polls suggest that at least two potential opposition candidates could roundly beat Mr. Erdogan and one of them faces four legal challenges that could knock him out of the running and give Mr. Erdogan’s party control of Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city and home to one in five of the country’s eligible voters.Mr. Erdogan and his aides insist that they are setting policy purely to serve the country of 84 million, whose citizens have rewarded him and his party with multiple electoral victories over the past two decades. His critics counter that he has used his many years as Turkey’s top politician to concentrate power in his own hands and is now using it to shape the outcome of the election before voters even go to the polls.“Erdogan is trying to fight this battle on ground he chooses, under the framework that he determines, with the weapons that he picks, and preferably with the opponent that he prefers,” said Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations at Beykoz University in Istanbul.Both Mr. Erdogan’s government and the political opposition view the simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections as a momentous opportunity to set the future course for a NATO member with one of the world’s 20 largest economies and strong diplomatic and business ties across Africa, Asia and Europe.Commemorating the anniversary of the death of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic, in Istanbul in November. The elections coincide with the 100th anniversary of the foundation of modern Turkey.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesAdding symbolism to the vote is timing. Mr. Erdogan has said it would be held on May 14, months before the 100th anniversary of the foundation of modern Turkey after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.In the meantime, he and his government have introduced vast spending for initiatives to insulate voters from the economy’s troubles, at least until the election.Since late December, Mr. Erdogan has increased the national minimum wage by 55 percent; bolstered the salaries of civil servants by 30 percent; expanded a program to give subsidized loans to tradesmen and small businesses; and moved to abolish a minimum retirement age requirement, allowing more than 1.5 million Turks to immediately stop working and to collect their pensions.Mr. Erdogan has said that if he wins, it would vindicate his efforts to build Turkey’s economy, increase its influence abroad and protect the country from domestic and international threats. Speaking to members of his Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P., in Parliament last week, he dismissed the political opposition as incompetent and billed himself as the best person to lead the country into its second 100 years, which he has called “Turkey’s century.”“Look, here I am as a politician who solves problems in his region and the world, who takes responsibilities, who sets directions,” he said.Mr. Erdogan has been Turkey’s paramount politician for two decades, as prime minister from 2003 to 2014 and as president since then. His first decade in power saw a drastic expansion of the economy that lifted millions of Turks out of poverty and expanded Turkish industry.But in recent years, the economy has weakened and Turkish opponents and Western officials have accused Mr. Erdogan of pushing the country toward autocracy, largely because of sweeping powers he has granted himself since a narrow majority of voters passed a referendum in 2017 that expanded the president’s role.Mr. Erdogan’s detractors say he has cowed the news media, limiting critical reporting, and extended his influence over the courts, leading to politically motivated trials. He has also taken charge of foreign and fiscal policy, sidelining the Foreign Ministry and the central bank.Mr. Erdogan’s government has put in place a series of measures recently to help benefit workers and small businesses amid a struggling economy.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesA coalition of six parties have joined forces to try to unseat Mr. Erdogan and they say that if they win, they will restore the independence of government bodies and reduce the power of the president by returning to a parliamentary system.“The election is not only about changing the government,” Canan Kaftancioglu, the Istanbul chairwoman of the largest opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, said in an recent interview. “It is between those who are in favor of democracy and those who are against democracy.”Improving the opposition’s chances are the country’s economic troubles, which have caused some voters to question Mr. Erdogan’s stewardship. Largely because of his unorthodox financial policies, the national currency lost nearly two-thirds of its value against the dollar in the last two years and year-on-year inflation reached about 85 percent in November before dropping to 64 percent in December.Turkey’s peak inflation rate in 2022 was nearly 10 times that of the United States and was the second-highest among the Group of 20 largest economies, after Argentina. Soaring prices have eaten into the budgets of Turkish families and eroded the middle class, damaging Mr. Erdogan’s popularity.But the opposition faces major challenges, too.Mr. Erdogan is a deft political operative and orator who can rely on a vast party apparatus that is enmeshed with the state and its resources. The opposition has yet to name its candidate, leaving Mr. Erdogan to campaign unopposed and fueling speculation that the opposition is plagued by internal divisions that could render it ineffective or tear it apart.The recent government spending spree adds to other initiatives introduced last year: a cash support program for low-income families; government forgiveness of some debt; and state-funded accounts to protect local currency deposits from devaluation.Turkish families were hit hard by hyperinflation last year as the national currency, the lira, plunged.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesMany economists say this flood of state spending could buoy voters until the election, but will most likely fuel even higher inflation and could tip the country into recession sometime after the vote.“The plan is, up until the election, they can spend lots of money,” said Ugur Gurses, a former central bank official and finance expert. “I think they think it is worth it if they are going to win. But if they lose, it will fall into the hands of the newcomers.”The opposition’s position has been further complicated by new legal threats to Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and one of the potential rivals who recent polls suggest could beat Mr. Erdogan.Last month, a court barred Mr. Imamoglu from politics for two years and seven months on charges that he insulted state officials. He had called electoral officials who overturned his initial victory in the 2019 Istanbul mayor’s race “fools.”The race was rerun a few months later, and Mr. Imamoglu beat Mr. Erdogan’s candidate again, this time by a much larger margin.Mr. Imamoglu remains in office while appealing the conviction. But in the weeks since last month’s court ruling, he has faced three new legal threats that could temporarily knock him out of politics and remove him from office, passing control of Turkey’s largest city to Mr. Erdogan.Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, waving to supporters at a rally in Istanbul in December. Recent polls suggest that he is one of the few opposition figures who could defeat Mr. Erdogan in an election.Khalil Hamra/Associated PressThe Interior Ministry has sued Mr. Imamoglu for alleged corruption during his previous job as an Istanbul district mayor in 2015; the interior minister has accused the mayor’s administration of employing more than 1,600 people with links to terrorism; and Mr. Imamoglu is being separately investigated for allegedly insulting another district mayor, who is a member of Mr. Erdogan’s party.Hasan Sinar, an assistant professor of criminal law at Altinbas University in Istanbul, dismissed the legal threats as “purely political.”“It’s all about Imamoglu because he’s the rising star of the opposition and they want to stop him,” said Mr. Sinar, who filed a legal brief in support of Mr. Imamoglu with the court in the first insult case.While it was unclear whether Mr. Erdogan had personally intervened in the case, Mr. Sinar said he doubted that a judge would rule against such a high-profile figure without knowing that Mr. Erdogan would approve.“This is a political act that looks like a legal one,” he said, “and no one can do this if it is against the will of the president.”Safak Timur More

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      Istanbul Mayor Jailed for Insulting Public Officials, Barring Him From Politics

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      The mayor of Istanbul, a possible rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2023 elections, was convicted of insulting public officials.ISTANBUL — A court in Turkey barred the mayor of Istanbul from political activity for years after convicting him on charges of insulting public officials, a ruling that could sideline a rising star in the opposition who is seen as a potential challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in elections next year.The mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, runs Turkey’s largest city and economic center. He was sentenced to two years and seven months in prison but has not been arrested and will appeal the ruling, his party said. If the ruling stands, he would not go to prison because his sentence is below the threshold required for incarceration under Turkish law.But he would be removed as mayor and barred for the duration of his sentence from political activity, including voting and running for or holding public office. That could essentially destroy the near-term prospects of a leader with a proven record of winning elections against Mr. Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P.Mr. Imamoglu was charged with insulting public officials, a crime under Turkish law. But his supporters see the case against him as a ruse cooked up by Mr. Erdogan and his allies to remove a contender from the political scene.“This case is proof that there is no justice left in Turkey,” Mr. Imamoglu told a demonstrators gathered outside the municipal headquarters to protest the verdict. “This case is a case run by those people who don’t want to bring Turkey the most divine values, such as justice and democracy.”Turks are looking to parliamentary and presidential elections to be held in or before next June to determine the future course of this country of 85 million, one of the world’s 20 largest economies and a member of NATO.Mr. Erdogan, as the country’s predominant politician for nearly two decades and president since 2014, has pushed Turkey toward greater authoritarianism, using his influence over broad swaths of the state to bolster his rule and undermine his rivals. He will seek to extend his tenure next year, although his standing in the polls has dived because of an economic crisis. The Turkish lira has lost much of its value against the dollar, and year-on-year inflation is more than 80 percent, according to government figures.A coalition of six opposition parties hopes to unseat Mr. Erdogan and deprive his party of its parliamentary majority next year, but they have yet to announce a presidential candidate.Mr. Imamoglu has not spoken publicly about whether he will run for president, but some recent polls have found him to be more popular than Mr. Erdogan. He also has the rare distinction of having beaten Mr. Erdogan’s party for control of Turkey’s largest city, twice in the same year.In March 2019, Mr. Imamoglu beat Mr. Erdogan’s chosen candidate in Istanbul’s municipal election, putting Turkey’s largest opposition party in charge of the city for the first time in decades. It was a stinging loss for Mr. Erdogan, not least because he had grown up in the city and made his own political name as its mayor before moving on to national politics.Alleging electoral irregularities, Mr. Erdogan’s party appealed for and were granted a rerun. Mr. Imamoglu won that too, with an even larger margin than he had the first time around.The current case against Mr. Imamoglu has its roots in his public criticism of government decisions in 2019 to remove dozens of mayors from Turkey’s Kurdish minority from their posts and replace them with state-appointed trustees.The government accused those mayors of having ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a Kurdish militant group that has fought against the state and which Turkey, the United States and the European Union consider a terrorist organization. The mayors denied the charges and critics considered their ouster a subversion of the democratic process.In a speech, Turkey’s interior minister, Suleyman Soylu, called Mr. Imamoglu a “fool” for criticizing the mayors’ removal. Mr. Imamoglu responded that the “fool” was those who had annulled the original results of the Istanbul mayoral elections.Turkey’s Supreme Election Council, which oversees the country’s elections, filed a compliant against Mr. Imamoglu for insulting state officials. A state prosecutor formally charged Mr. Imamoglu last year.Critics have accused Mr. Erdogan of extending his influence over the judiciary, allowing him press for rulings that benefit him politically.In a video message posted on Twitter before the sentence was announced on Wednesday, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the head of Turkey’s largest opposition party, said that a guilty verdict would prove that Turkey’s judges were in cahoots with Mr. Erdogan.“Any decision other than an acquittal will be the confession of a plot and the palace’s orders,” he said, referring to the presidential palace. “I am warning the palace for the last time, get your hand off the judiciary.” More

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      Elections Approaching, Erdogan Raises the Heat Again With Greece

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      Turkey’s president suggested that troops “may suddenly arrive one night” in Greece. With inflation rampant and the lira sinking, a manufactured crisis might be just the thing he needs.ISTANBUL — Last week at a closed dinner in Prague, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece was addressing 44 European leaders when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey interrupted him and started a shouting match.Before stalking from the room, Mr. Erdogan accused Mr. Mitsotakis of insincerity about settling disputes in the eastern Aegean and blasted the European Union for siding with its members, Greece and Cyprus, according to a European diplomat and two senior European officials who were there.While the others, flabbergasted and annoyed, finished their dinners, Mr. Erdogan fulminated at a news conference against Greece and threatened invasion. “We may suddenly arrive one night,” he said. When a reporter asked if that meant he would attack Greece, the Turkish president said, “Actually you have understood.”The outburst was only the latest from Mr. Erdogan. As he faces mounting political and economic difficulties before elections in the spring, he has been ramping up the threats against his NATO ally since the summer, using language normally left to military hawks and ultranationalists.While few diplomats or analysts are predicting war, there is a growing sense among European diplomats that a politically threatened Mr. Erdogan is an increasingly dangerous one for his neighbors — and that accidents can happen.Mr. Erdogan needs crisis to buoy his shaky standing at home after nearly 20 years in power, a diplomat specializing in Turkey said, requesting anonymity. And if he is not provided one, the diplomat said, he may create one.The rising tensions between Greece and Turkey, both NATO members, now threaten to add a difficult new dimension to Europe’s efforts to maintain its unity in the face of Russia’s war in Ukraine and its accumulating economic fallout.Mr. Erdogan met President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Kazakhstan on Thursday.Pool photo by Vyacheslav ProkofyevAlready, Mr. Erdogan has made himself a troublesome and unpredictable ally for his NATO partners. His economic challenges and desire to carve out a stable security sphere for Turkey in a tough neighborhood have pushed him ever closer to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.Mr. Erdogan has earned some shelter from open criticism by allies because of his efforts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, especially in the deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports.But he has refused to impose sanctions on Russia and continues to get Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline, while asking Moscow to delay payment for energy.On Thursday, Mr. Erdogan met Mr. Putin in Kazakhstan, where they discussed using Turkey as an energy hub to export more Russian gas after the pipelines to Germany under the Baltic Sea have been damaged.But it is the escalating rhetoric against Greece that is now drawing special attention.Sinan Ulgen, the director of EDAM, an Istanbul-based research institution, said that of course there was an electoral aspect to Mr. Erdogan’s actions. But there were also deep-seated problems that foster chronic instability and dangerous tensions.“Turkey and Greece have a set of unresolved bilateral disputes,” he said, “and this creates a favorable environment whenever a politician in Ankara or Athens wants to raise tensions.”The two countries nearly went to war in the 1970s over energy exploration in the Aegean, in 1995-96 over disputed claims over an uninhabited rock formation in the eastern Mediterranean, and in 2020, again over energy exploration in disputed waters. “And now we’re at it again,” Mr. Ulgen said. “And why? Because of elections in Turkey and Greece.”Mr. Mitsotakis is also in campaign mode, with elections expected next summer, damaged by a continuing scandal over spyware planted in the phones of opposition politicians and journalists. As in Turkey, nothing appeals to Greek patriotism more than a good spat with an old foe.A Turkish drill in August off Mersin, Turkey. Turkey and Greece nearly went to war in 2020 over Turkish energy exploration in disputed waters.Adem Altan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesHe has sought to appear firm without escalating. Confronted at the dinner in Prague, Mr. Mitsotakis retorted that leaders should solve problems and not create new ones, that he was prepared to discuss all issues but could not stay silent while Turkey threatened the sovereignty of Greek islands.“No, Mr. Erdogan — no to bullying,” he said in a recent policy speech. He told reporters that he was open to talks with Mr. Erdogan despite the vitriol, saying he thought military conflict unlikely. “I don’t believe this will ever happen,” he said. “And if, God forbid, it happened, Turkey would receive an absolutely devastating response.”He was referring to Greek military abilities that have been significantly bolstered recently as part of expanded defense agreements with France and the United States.Mr. Mitsotakis has also taken advantage of American annoyance with Mr. Erdogan’s relations with Russia and his delay in approving NATO enlargement to Finland and Sweden to boost ties with Washington. In May, he was the first Greek prime minister to address Congress and urged it to reconsider arms sales to Turkey.He has said Greece will buy F-35s, while Turkey, denied F-35s because of its purchase of a Russian air-defense system, is still pressing to get more F-16s and modernization kits, using NATO enlargement as leverage.But Mr. Erdogan is facing considerable problems at home, making tensions with Greece an easy and traditional way to divert attention and rally support.Mr. Erdogan is presiding over a disastrous economy, with inflation running officially at 83 percent a year — but most likely higher — and the currency depreciating. Turkish gross domestic product per capita, a measure of wealth, has dropped to about $7,500 from more than $12,600 in 2013, based on Turkey’s real population, which now includes some four million Syrian refugees, according to Bilge Yilmaz, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.Mr. Erdogan is presiding over a disastrous economy, with inflation running officially at 83 percent a year.Yasin Akgul/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Erdogan has kept cutting interest rates against conventional economic advice. “We need to reverse monetary policy,” said Mr. Yilmaz, who is touted as a likely finance minister should Mr. Erdogan lose the election. “A strong adjustment of the economy will not be easy.”There is also growing popular resentment of the continuing cost of the refugees, who were taken in by Mr. Erdogan as a generous gesture to fellow Muslims in difficulty.Still, Mr. Erdogan is thought to have a solid 30 percent of the vote as his base, and government-controlled media dominate, with numerous opposition journalists and politicians jailed or silenced.In a report on Wednesday, the European Union criticized “democratic backsliding” and said that “in the area of democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights, Turkey needs to reverse the negative trend as a matter of priority with addressing the weakening of effective checks and balances in the political system.”Still, at this point, analysts think Mr. Erdogan could lose his majority in Parliament and might just lose the presidential election itself.That is an analysis firmly rejected by Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, the AKP, said Volkan Bozkir, a former diplomat and member of Parliament, who says flatly that Mr. Erdogan and his party will be re-elected.Constantinos Filis, the director of the Institute of Global Affairs at the American College of Greece, believes that Mr. Erdogan is trying to keep all options open, “casting Greece as a convenient external threat and creating a dangerous framework within which he could justify a potential move against Greece in advance.”As for Washington, he said, they are telling Mr. Erdogan: “Thank you for what you did in Ukraine, of course you haven’t imposed sanctions on Russia, but OK, you’re in a difficult position, strategically, diplomatically, economically — but don’t dare to do something in the Aegean or the Eastern Mediterranean that will bring trouble to NATO.”Migrants at the border between Turkey and Greece in March 2020. There is growing popular resentment of the continuing cost of the refugees in Turkey, who include four million Syrians.The New York TimesMore likely, Mr. Filis said, Mr. Erdogan would again send migrants toward Europe, or launch another energy exploration in disputed areas off Cyprus or Crete, which produced near clashes in 2020, or intercept a Greek ship transporting military equipment to one of the Aegean Islands.Mr. Ulgen also does not expect armed conflict but would not be surprised. “It could happen; it’s not something we can rule out anymore,” he said. “But if it happens, it will be small-scale.”Niki Kitsantonis More

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      in Elections

      Turkey Allows Jail Terms for What It Deems ‘Fake News’

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      Rights advocates fear the government could use newly passed legislation to restrict speech and target critics in the run-up to crucial elections in June.ISTANBUL — Turkey’s Parliament has passed sweeping new legislation intended to stamp out disinformation, allowing the government to jail journalists and social media users for up to three years for spreading information deemed to be false or misleading.The final piece of the legislation, which also requires social media companies to hand over the personal details of users suspected of spreading “fake news,” was approved on Thursday night with votes from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s governing party and its allies, who control a parliamentary majority.Mr. Erdogan, who has concentrated more power in his hands in recent years while growing less tolerant of dissent, had argued it was necessary to fight disinformation and called social media a threat to democracy.But a range of critics — including opposition lawmakers, media freedom advocates and legal scholars — have criticized the law itself as a threat to democracy, saying that its vague provisions could have a chilling effect on free expression and enable the government to prosecute critics or journalists who publish information about wrongdoing or corruption.Those worries are particularly acute in the run-up to presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June, in which Mr. Erdogan and his party will seek to stay in power, despite galloping inflation that has seen their popularity sag in the polls.The disinformation legislation is the most recent step in what rights watchdogs have called a constriction of free expression in Turkey under Mr. Erdogan, who has been the country’s premier politician since 2003 and president since 2014.In recent years, the websites of foreign news outlets, including the Voice of America and Germany’s DW, have been blocked, Turkish TV stations and newspapers have fallen increasingly under the control of the state, and citizens have been arrested on charges for such crimes as “insulting the president.”But social media and online news sites enjoyed a greater degree of free expression, which the new law threatens to undermine.Representatives of journalist associations and unions protested against the new legislation last week in Turkey’s capital, Ankara.Adem Altan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesTo drive that point home, Burak Erbay, an opposition lawmaker, spoke from the Parliament’s podium to the millions of young Turks who will be eligible to vote for the first time next year.“You have only one freedom left: the phone in your pocket,” Mr. Erbay said. “If the law here passes in Parliament, you can break your phone like this.”Then he smashed a cellphone with a hammer.Mahir Unal, a senior lawmaker from Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, defended the legislation in Parliament, saying it did not target free expression or criticism that “does not exceed the limits.”During a TV interview in May, after his party proposed the law, he said, “We are working on this so that freedom of expression, criticism and freedom of the press will not be limited.”To come into force, the new legislation must be signed by Mr. Erdogan within 15 days. He can also send it back to Parliament for revision.Turkey was under fire for limiting freedom of expression even before the new legislation. Freedom House, a democracy promotion group, rates Turkey “Not Free” on its Freedom in the World index. Reporters Without Borders ranked Turkey 149 out of 180 countries in its press freedom index.The Venice Commission, the Council of Europe’s legal advisory body, acknowledged in a legal assessment of the legislation the threat that disinformation poses to democratic societies. But at the same time, it called on Turkey not to enact the law, saying it had “serious doubts” about the need to criminalize disinformation in such a way.It also said the legislation could lead to self-censorship, especially during elections.The legislation is not a new law, but it consists of 40 amendments to existing laws.Of greatest concern to rights advocates is Article 29. It allows for prison terms of one to three years for anyone who “disseminates false information about the country’s domestic and foreign security, public order and general health, with the sole aim of creating anxiety, fear or panic among the public and in a manner that is liable to disturb public peace.”Supporters of the legislation have compared it with similar laws in European countries and say it includes enough safeguards to prevent it from being used to punish peaceful, legitimate speech. But legal scholars say it gives the authorities great flexibility in how to apply it.“It is very vague and arbitrary, it will be used in an arbitrary and discriminatory way in Turkey,” said Yaman Akdeniz, a law professor at Istanbul Bilgi University. “It lacks adequate legal safeguards and provides wide discretion to the prosecutors and courts.”The law also significantly tightens regulations governing the operations of large social media companies in Turkey.If requested by the Turkish authorities, companies like Meta, Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube must remove content and provide proprietary information, including user data of suspected perpetrators and algorithmic information used to determine rankings.Companies that fail to comply could face drastic slowdowns in the speed of their services in Turkey, a practice known as throttling, or fines equal to 3 percent of their global income.Mr. Akdeniz said these companies must decide whether they are going to respect the new requirements to continue to operate in Turkey, at the risk of enabling government crackdowns.“If you comply with this,” he said, “you risk becoming the long arm of the Turkish authorities.” More

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      in World Politics

      On Ukraine, Turkey Is Moving Cautiously Toward the West

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      Just days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the chief commentator of the Turkish daily Sabah, Mehmet Barlas, summed up his assessment of the situation with the sentence, “If we had to reckon with a war, President Erdogan would not have left today for a four-day trip to Africa.” He added that Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, is in constant contact with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

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      “All experts,” the avowed Erdogan supporter continued, agreed that Washington was escalating the crisis to solidify its dominance in Western Europe. With that, Barlas also echoed the general mood in Turkey. It is fortunate, he said, that Russia’s president is much more reasonable and wiser than his American counterpart, Joe Biden.

      The Bond Between Erdogan and Putin

      This positive image of Putin and Erdogan’s familiarity with the Kremlin leader is no accident. Particularly since the failed coup attempt in Turkey in 2016, Erdogan has, with Putin’s help, been able to position himself independently of — and sometimes even against — the United States and Europe on key foreign policy issues.

      In Syria and Azerbaijan, Ankara and Moscow succeeded in marginalizing Western actors. In Libya and the eastern Mediterranean, Turkey acts as a competitor or even adversary to member states of the European Union.

      Turkey’s flirtation with Moscow led to concerns that Ankara might turn away from Europe altogether. That contributed to the EU’s kid-glove approach to Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus. It also resulted in Washington’s belated reaction to Turkey’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 missile defense system with sanctions. It is true that Turkey has experience with Putin as a cool strategist and ruthless power politician in conflicts such as the one in Syria. But Erdogan has always seemed to succeed in avoiding escalation.

      Embed from Getty Images

      Despite all of Ankara’s tension with Moscow, Erdogan’s rapprochement with Russia has brought him much closer to his goal of strategic autonomy for his country from the West. Turkey skillfully maneuvered between the fronts of global rivalry and was able to considerably expand its scope and influence in just a few years.

      In this seesaw policy, however, Turkey is behaving much more confrontationally toward Western states than toward Russia. For years, the government press has painted a positive picture of Russia and a negative one of the United States and Europe. This is not without effect on Turkish public opinion. Around a month before Russia attacked Ukraine, in a poll carried out by a renowned opinion research institute, a narrow relative majority of 39% of respondents favored foreign policy cooperation with Russia and China instead of Europe and the United States.

      In the first days after Russia’s invasion, Ankara’s policy followed exactly the aforementioned pattern. Turkey condemned the attack, but it is not participating in sanctions against Russia. In the vote on suspending Russia’s representation rights in the Council of Europe, Turkey was the only NATO state to abstain and, as such, is keeping its airspace open to Russian aircraft.

      The West is paying particular attention to whether and how Turkey implements the Treaty of Montreux. The 1936 treaty regulates the passage of warships through Turkey’s Dardanelles and Bosporus Straits into the Black Sea. It limits the number, tonnage and duration of stay of ships from non-littoral states in the Black Sea. In the event of war, the convention stipulates that the waterways must be closed to ships of the parties to the conflict, and it entrusts Ankara with the application of the treaty’s regulations

      Ankara Swings Around

      It took Turkey four days to classify the Russian invasion as “war.” However, Ankara is still reluctant to officially close the waterways — as the treaty stipulates — to ships of parties to the conflict, Russia and Ukraine. Instead, Ankara is warning “all countries, Black Sea riparian or not,” against sending warships through the straits.

      In the literal sense, this step is not directed unilaterally against Moscow, but it also makes it more difficult for NATO ships to sail into the Black Sea. According to the treaty, however, the waterways may only be closed to warships of all countries if Ankara considers itself directly threatened by war. Consciously creating ambiguity, Turkey has triangulated between the West and Russia.

      Unique Insights from 2,500+ Contributors in 90+ Countries

      Almost imperceptibly at first, however, a reversal has now set in. There are four reasons for this. First, the West is showing unity and resolve unseen since the Cold War, and its sanctions are undermining Russia’s standing in the world. Second, Putin is losing his charisma as a successful statesman and reliable partner. Third, Ankara realizes that Putin’s vision of a great Russian empire could provoke more wars. Fourth, the ranks of the adversaries are closing and it is becoming more difficult for Turkey to continue its seesaw policy.

      Thus, strongly pro-Western tones have emerged from Ankara in recent weeks. Turkey will continue to support Ukraine in consultation with the West, according to the president’s spokesman. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu now claims to have contradicted Russia’s wishes for the passage of warships through the Bosporus “in all friendship.” President Erdogan is also in favor of admitting Ukraine to the European Union and Kosovo to NATO.

      Moreover, Ankara is not contradicting reports by Ukrainian diplomats that Turkey is supplying more armed drones and training pilots to fly drones. On March 2, Turkey joined the vast majority of states in the UN General Assembly’s condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that asked Russia to “immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces.” Two days later, during the extraordinary meeting of NATO’s foreign ministers, Turkey supported the deployment of NATO’s Response Force to NATO countries neighboring Ukraine.

      It looks like Putin is not only bringing long-lost unity to the EU, but he is also reminding Turkey of the benefits of its Western ties. Western states should realize that only more unity among themselves and more determination will make Turkey reengage with the West.

      *[This article was originally published by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), which advises the German government and Bundestag on all questions relating to foreign and security policy.]

      The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy. More