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    Treasury rubbishes Rishi Sunak’s £2,000 tax hike election TV debate claim

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Treasury has rubbished Rishi Sunak’s claim Labour will put up taxes by £2,000 for every household – a major line of attack for the prime minister in Tuesday night’s TV debate.In the first televised clash of the general election campaign, Mr Sunak repeatedly pointed to analysis by Treasury civil servants showing a £38.5bn black hole in Sir Keir Starmer’s spending plans.This would lead to each working household paying £2,094 more in tax under a Labour government, the PM said.His claims immediately started to unravel on Wednesday morning when Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho conceded on the Today programme that the £2,000 figure was spread over four years.Click here for our live coverage of the general election campaign.Then, within minutes in a dramatic and humiliating intervention for Mr Sunak, a letter emerged from Treasury permanent secretary James Bowler which he wrote to the Labour Party to pour cold water on the claim.Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer met for the first time on the campaign trail as they went head-to-head in a debate hosted by ITV (Jonathan Hordle/ITV) More

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    Rory Stewart warns Tories not to ‘chase Farage’ and accuses party of giving up on youth vote

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Conservative Party must recapture young voters and not “chase Nigel Farage” to win back the electorate, Rory Stewart has warned.The former Tory leadership hopeful and government minister warned the party has not recovered since the “chaos” of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and must return to the centre rather than pandering to the far-right.Mr Stewart’s comments come as the latest polls show the Conservatives on course for a landslide defeat as they lag more than 24 points behind Labour.Rory Stewart said that, since 2019 the Tories have ‘bet the house on voters over 65’ and given up on young voters More

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    Home Office confirms more than 40,000 crossed Channel after Sunak pledged to ‘stop the boats’

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour have branded Rishi Sunak a “desperate liar” after new figures suggest that the number of people coming over on small boats has increase not gone down as he has claimed.The party calculated that more than 40,000 asylum seekers have now crossed the Channel in small boats since Mr Sunak made his pledge to stop them altogether in January 2022.It comes after fiery exchanges in the leaders debate on ITV last night where Mr Sunak insisted the number of illegal migrants on small boats was coming down.Labour’s calculations came as the Home Office have confirmed that 234 people crossed the Channel on small boats on Tuesday 4 June, taking the total for 2024 up to 10,745. This is 41.2 per cent more than up to the same point last year (7,610), and 7.6 per cent more than the previous record year in 2022 (9,984).Sunak said Starmer did not have a plan More

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    General election countdown: What the 1983 and 2017 votes tell us about Starmer’s lead over Sunak

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailEver since Rishi Sunak made his announcement in the rain in Downing Street, the election campaign has been characterised by an inability to budge Labour’s lead – but past contests suggest movement is still possible.This week’s polls show a massive lead for Sir Keir Starmer, with the party at about 45 per cent and the Tories hovering around 20. Labour has hopes of surpassing Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide victory. But the game is not over yet. In 1983, a SDP-Liberal Alliance came from well behind to run Labour close for second place in the popular vote.More recently, in 2017 the Tories’ 20-point lead seeped away under the challenge of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour, and Theresa May was left to form a minority government. With four weeks still to go, Tuesday’s fractious debate exposed weaknesses in both leaders and the introduction of Nigel Farage for Reform UK will shake up the maths in a number of constituencies.Reform UK and the Lib Dems are a factor, currently polling at 12 per cent and 11 per cent respectively, according to Techne UK. That makes nearly a quarter of the popular vote shared between the two parties.Lib Dem president and polling expert Dr Mark Pack said: “I think there is a difference for smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats, where the campaign can really make a difference to how many seats the party wins. “But if you’re looking at Labour and Tories, whichever one of them starts ahead of the other is, historically, the overwhelming favourite to end up ahead at the end of it.”In 1983, the SDP-Liberal Alliance, which later became the Lib Dems, came incredibly close to driving Labour out of its top-two spot in the vote share.One month before the ballots, Labour was polling at 32 per cent – 14 points ahead of the Alliance. But that gap rapidly shrank in the final 30 days. In the end, the margin between the two parties was just two points; Labour won just 27.6 per cent of the vote and the Alliance won 25.4. The first-past-the-post electoral system meant Labour was a distance ahead for the number of MPs – 209 to 23 – and Margaret Thatcher won a 144-seat majority but the Alliance threatened the 60-year dominance of the two parties.The Social Democratic Party (SDP) had been formed in 1981, by the “Gang of Four” senior Labour figures as a more moderate left-wing party. It teamed up with the Liberal Party to form the Alliance, led by former Labour chancellor Roy Jenkins. The Labour Party had swung to the left under Michael Foot, alienating some voters. The Alliance acted as a centre-left antidote for those deterred by his manifesto commitment for more “radical, socialist policies”.In 2024 the Tories are very unlikely to win the election, but the scale of their loss matters, and Labour is not the only challenge. Dozens of Tory seats are seriously threatened by smaller third parties, be that Reform, the Greens, or the Lib Dems, who are projected to win 48 seats by YouGov.In June 2017, although Theresa May’s Tories came out as the biggest party with 318 seats, they received just 2.3 per cent more than Labour’s 40 per cent of the vote share.Polls at the end of April 2017 had been showing a 23-point Conservative lead.With her approval ratings high, Theresa May was criticised when she declined the TV debates, while the exposure saw Mr Corbyn’s support grow. When Mrs May did appear on television in the final stretch of the campaign, the then-prime minister was seen as evasive on key issues – in particular the Brexit deal-or-no-deal debate. Labour support rose from 26 per cent to 40 per cent in a matter of weeks, while the Lib Dem numbers shrank from 13 per cent to 7 per cent, following a trend of voters gravitating towards the two main parties as election day approaches.Rishi Sunak undoubtedly has a mountain to climb ahead of 4 July, but history tells us it is more than possible the gap will close. More

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    Jeremy Corbyn officially stands as independent candidate after Labour explusion

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailJeremy Corbyn said the Labour’s Party’s behaviour towards Diane Abbott and Faiza Shaheen was “deplorable”, as he handed in his nomination papers to officially stand as an independent candidate in the upcoming general election.The 74-year-old veteran socialist was joined by comedian Rob Delaney and local residents to kickstart his campaign to regain the Islington North seat he has held since 1983.Dozens of campaigners sang “Oh Jeremy Corbyn” and cars peeped their horns as the former Labour leader stood on the steps outside Islington Town Hall.He said: “I hope those who have always supported Labour will understand that I am here to represent the people of Islington North with the same principles I’ve stood by my entire life: equality, democracy and peace. These principles are needed now, more than ever.”The 74-year-old added that he wanted to bring back public ownership of the UK’s major utilities, such as water and also wants to stop what he sees as privatisation of the NHS.Supporters gathered in Islington for Mr Corbyn’s launch More

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    Chaos as Tory chairman put on a shortlist of one to ensure he gets a seat

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA fresh embarrassment has emerged for Rishi Sunak after party chiefs were forced to put his hand-picked chairman Richard Holden on a shortlist of one to ensure he had a seat to fight.Mr Holden is the only name listed for the Billericay and Basildon seat in Essex which had a majority of 20,412 in 2019.The move has caused fury in the local association which, it is understood, had already been in a stand-off with CCHQ because it wanted its own shortlist and not the one imposed by party bosses.But now the party has used emergency election rules which allow them to impose a single candidate 48 hours before the deadline.But it is understood that the local association chairman has cancelled the special general meeting to make the selection in protest.Holden is on a shortlist of one for the safe seat More

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    Independent readers defy YouGov poll and name Keir Starmer their winner after ITV general election debate

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailIndependent readers have been sharing their views following the first televised debate of the general election on Tuesday — and their opinions don’t quite stack up with a prominent poll that pitched Rishi Sunak as a narrow frontrunner.We asked for your hot takes following ITV’s showdown between Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak and we were inundated with responses.At the time of writing, a poll on our Twitter/X, had the Labour leader earmarked as the victor, with almost 55 per cent of those who took part backing him. Around 35 per cent said they weren’t convinced by either, leaving the current prime minister with just a ten per cent share of the vote.This pattern was also reflected in an exclusive poll sent to members of The Independent’s free WhatsApp Channel, which you can join here.So what’s the story behind these numbers? Many readers felt Mr Sunak was petulant and repetitive, often interrupting Sir Keir and failing to provide clear solutions, relying instead on dubious scare tactics about tax increases. Meanwhile, our community perceived the Labour leader as more credible and sensible, but not particularly inspiring or forceful in rebutting Mr Sunak’s claims. More broadly, the debate drew criticism for its format, moderation, and content. Many felt it lacked substance and missed addressing critical issues like the NHS, education, and immigration.One thing most readers could agree with unanimously was the moderation by journalist Julie Etchingham, who was widely criticised for not controlling the candidates effectively. Here’s what you had to say:‘Wasted time’Neither reassured me they have the answers or plans in place to address the critical issues that are ruining our country (state of the NHS, education system, illegal immigration, defence ).I was appalled the last question was regarding football, even if it was an attempt at finishing on a lighthearted note, I would like to remind both these leaders and ITV this election is about finding a leader for ‘Britain’ not ‘England’. Speechless they wasted time on this question and completely disregarded the other nations.Inquisitive‘Repeating the same old lies’All Sunak did was keep repeating the same old lies and talking over Starmer. Etchingham was a terrible host who let Suank get away with it too often, but I am confident most people will see through him.Chris Bovey‘Sensible, if not the most inspiring’All Sunak did was keep interrupting and came up with no clear solutions to the problems that his party, as Starmer pointed out, has caused over the past 14 years. Starmer offered a sensible solution going forward, if not the most inspiring. His biggest pull was the idea of 5 more years of Tory incompetence. That’s not exactly a glowing endorsement, but a wins a win. Starmer is credible; Sunak is petulant.BennCain‘Clear winner’Starmer was the clear winner – poised and Prime Ministerial, Sunak came across as entitled, petulant and out of touch.null‘The debate was a sham’I’ve voted Labour all my adult life, but would rather pluck out both of my eyes than vote for Starmer’s Labour! The debate was a sham and didn’t change my mind. Sunak is desperate and delusional, while Starmer is an outright liar who changes his responses to any given question depending on how the wind is blowing!I’m voting for Reform UK. I want to see PR replace the unfair and lack of representation we get from FPTP.Oh, and ITV’s idea of a debate is laughable: no time for actual debate between the candidates; poor refereeing; worst election debate I’ve watched since they became a feature of UK elections!NicC‘Sunak a bit desperate’I think a poor format. It didn’t flow and 45 seconds maybe too short. But maybe any longer and the grandstanding would not stop. I think most of the public have already made up their minds. Sunak seemed a bit desperate.punda‘Gimmicks’The most instructive part of the process was the revelation of how the Conservatives rig the figures to discredit Labour by putting their unfavourable interpretation of what Labour allegedly proposes so as to provide worst case scenario, getting Treasury experts to analyse them and then come up with how much it will cost the UK taxpayers. This seems to be the origin of the £2000 tax increase that Labour will bring about according to the Conservatives. Sunak plugged this so much that each time he repeated it the less credibility it seemed to have. Starmer pointed out the flawed methodology behind these inflated claims and how a PR company employed by the Tories actually produced a report showing how disastrous their policies would be. It was also interesting how Sunak never spoke about the record of the Conservatives over the past 14 years and kept talking about bold steps into the future. This sort of projection is nothing more than a device to steer peoples’ attention away from the shambles, chaos, lack of direction and weak leadership of recent times by focusing on an abstract formless future that does not exist and if the gimmicks fostered by Sunak and his office ever came to pass would cost the country millions of unfunded expenses at a time when serious issues need to be addressed such as: the catastrophic collapse of the NHS; the overcrowding, understaffed chaotic disintegration affecting the public education system; and the wasted resources that have been ploughed into dealing with both legal and illegal immigration that seem to have made matters worse. A second-rate gimmick like the Rwanda flights, which deals with a marginal but visible and in the scheme of things inconsequential issue, shows how totally out of touch the government has been.Steben68‘No real facts’The debate would have made much more sense after the parties published their manifestos. As was just a series of accusations and evasions without real facts. Not, of course, that you can necessarily even trust the manifestos, but would have helped.Langley‘More punchy’Julie Etchingham could not control Sunak’s ranting and gave him far more talk time.Starmer came over well but has to learn to be more punchy with his replies.Hana4‘More Atlee than Blair’Told us little except in their management styles. Sunak likes to shout people down, interrupt and endlessly repeat until he’s called out. Except he never is in the Westminster bubble. Starmer was surprisingly docile, listening and considering before responding. It took him 30 minutes to realise he had to close Sunak down on the tax increase nonsense. He’s more Atlee than Blair. Sunak is Thatcher without the wit or charm.Pendent‘Poor format’A poor format and a poor moderator, Mr Sunak was rude and overbearing. Mr Starmer was too polite and therefore was not able to get his point across, at least, until the end. I can’t see that anyone learnt anything new, or had their minds changed. There must be a better way of doing this!Mebo2‘Career politicians’Just awful, all around, by a couple of career politicians.Considering the catastrophic state of our country, the British people deserve so much more from these two morons.Lordyme‘Scrappy terrier’I am a Labour supporter but to use a boxing analogy, think Sunak was the candidate most on the front foot throughout. I am not in the least bit persuaded by what Sunak said but he was admittedly like a scrappy terrier in the relentless prosecution of his phoney £2000 Labour tax increase. I expected Keir Starmer as a barrister to swiftly neutralise this claim but instead he looked flustered by it or even embarrassed. Starmer should have been able to skewer Sunak on each point but instead Sunak ‘did it’ to him. The interviewer did seem to permit more interruptions from Sunak but at the end of the day, of course, it was for each man to make his own luck. The above is not to say that Keir Starmer did badly — and there were many good points that also raised an audience laugh at Sunak’s expense — but as a spectacle Sunak clearly won as his pugnacious style slightly compensated for anything truthful or of substance he had to say. Henceforth I hope Keir Starmer ups his game. sjnon3‘All people will remember is that £2k figure’There was nothing in it in terms of what was said – the YouGov result of 51:49 is saying it was a draw. The difference is in the margin of error.But all people will remember is that £2000 figure, even though it is based on Conservative claims about Labour policies, not the actual policies. So in that sense Sunak won.DMcG3Substance vs. sound bitesStarmer won the debate in terms of credibility and substance. Sunak was just sound bites plugging what he thought was the most effective weapon — threat of higher taxes with Labour.Starmer wanted to challenge the fictitious £2000 from the start but Etchingham insisted they save it till later. Tories have form on this tax-scaring tactic. What people should be asking is how are the Tories going to cut taxes and fulfil their promises which require extra public money. If there is more to come Sunak cannot keep up that rhetoric without it being called out.No quick fixes on health, education, cost of living and immigration from either of them but the Tories are only now promising what should have been done when they had the chance. Starmer definitely scored a point about the national service gimmick which is hard to refute.There was a clear difference in approach to climate change. All Sunak could do was to try and bribe the electorate with short-term lower cost of not doing changes without addressing the longer-term issue. Starmer did at least offer the sensible plan of increasing renewables and phasing out fossil which would make energy cheaper in the longer term.InterestedObserver‘Starmer edged it’Sunak was petulant, repetitive and refused to accept any responsibility for the 14 years of Tory rule, all the fault of Covid, the war in Russia and the previous Labour government. Then out popped his favourite what-aboutism, the Welsh Labour Government.In fact, his responses were so predictable that I was disappointed Starmer didn’t shoot them down with more authority. When I could hear Starmer he seemed to speak more sense than Sunak’s headline-grabbing policies which he didn’t provide plans for implementingBut what I really hated was Sunak continually interrupting and talking over Starmer.So, what conclusions did I draw?Starmer edged it but mainly due to the own goals of Sunak’s performance.That the moderator needs to hold their feet to the fire to answer the questionsIf Sunak can’t be trusted to not interrupt then his microphone should be turned off when Starmer is speakingHughdathunkit‘Weak’Starmer came across weak and needed to call out Sunak’s unfounded claims to lower taxes and ask what further spending cuts would pay for that.Frank‘I don’t think the debates are going to matter much’I didn’t watch. Listening to politicians talking or arguing just makes me angry. I don’t think the debates are going to matter much. It’s pretty simple; the Conservatives have had fourteen years and it’s been dreadful. We’d be mad to award them another five.Longmemory23‘The PM was overbearing’Sir Keir for me won the debate on the important issues and was polite enough to be likeable. The PM was overbearing, rude and decided that, without asking, that he was the saviour of the UK… not so much. I refuse to vote Tory any more, my Labour candidate has substance and will now vote for Labour for the first time.bystander1‘Petulant’Sunak more incisive but really came across as petulant. He clearly had no connection with the audience. Starmer too wordy and didn’t rebut the 2k tax assertion early and hard enough but he had more natural empathy. Moby‘Both were embarrassing’Etchingham was awful and she challenged both equally for talking across each other when frankly it was only Sunak who was doing it.Both were embarrassing, but when Keir speaks, it strikes fear within me. We will have a dystopian future with Keir as PM. Rishi clearly won the debate. However, it’s time to get them both out. We need someone with drive, the ability to see where the greatest flaws lie and a vision for the future.JLo‘Starmer is the safer pair of hands’Sunak was rude and his tactic was seemingly to block Starmer saying too much, as he constantly interrupted. His main attack was on what Starmer had done as a barrister which wasn’t the issue here. Starmer didn’t attack Sunak enough about the 14 years of disaster the country has suffered at the hands of the various Tory leaders – each one worse than the previous one. Another point he missed was just how sad it is that there isn’t anyone in the Tory ranks more capable than Cameron to run around the world as Foreign Secretary.Tax cuts seemingly all Sunak had on offer. Starmer should have asked him what else he was going to cut to pay for them, or isn’t there anything more to cut as most public services have already disappeared or are struggling to survive — like the NHS. He could also have asked Sunak to list where the 40 new hospitals are that the Tories promised and had in their manifesto.Sunak was the more vociferous and often, downright rude, but between the lines, I believe that Starmer is the safer pair of hands. You don’t need to be a media star to be a good PM!Ambigirls‘Doubt any will change their vote’People with preconceived views over how they wanted the debate to be perceived will likely argue for their candidate, but I doubt any will be changing their vote. Because Sunak is heavily losing in the polls anyway, on aggregate, he loses here too. I’m not sure aggressively attacking and interrupting with parroted half-truths is the best tactic in any case.AName‘Other parties should have been present’Didn’t watch it as I am not keen on US-style presidential 1 to 1 debates. We live in something of a democracy and I think the other parties’ should have been present so ITV got my thumbs down. I went to the pub with a mate instead. Both of us plan to vote Labour or Lib Dem to try and remove our respective incumbent and incompetent Tory MPs.KernowSome of the comments have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.All you have to do is sign up, submit your question and register your details – then you can then take part in the discussion. You can also sign up by clicking ‘log in’ on the top right-hand corner of the screen.Make sure you adhere to our community guidelines, which can be found here. For a full guide on how to comment click here. More

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    Unions ‘do worry’ that a Labour government under Starmer will fail on public sector pay rises

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe current leader of the trade union movement has warned Sir Keir Starmer that any failure to reverse “14 years of attacks on public sector pay” by a Labour government will not be accepted.Matt Wrack, the president of the Trades Union Congress (TUC) and general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union (FBU), issued the warning amid concerns over the Labour leadership language on pay settlements.In a recent interview with The Independent, shadow health secretary Wes Streeting made it clear that he would not give striking doctors their 35 per cent pay rise demand. Sir Keir then was applauded on the televised leaders debate last night for saying the same.Asked if he was concerned about the language on pay by the Labour leadership, Mr Wrack said: “Yes, I think that is an issue that that needs addressing.”Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer during the ITV General Election debate (Jonathan Hordle/ITV) More