UK Politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNigel Farage has announced he will become the new leader of Reform UK and that he will stand for election in Clacton, Essex.But there was one burning question: who had appointed him? The answer was no one, really – or possibly former leader Richard Tice.As an “entrepreneurial political start-up” with Mr Farage as the company’s director and majority shareholder, there was no internal leadership election, like Labour or the Conservative Party.Mr Farage claimed Reform UK would “democratise over time” after he was accused of running a “one-man dictatorship” by broadcasters.With the party set to contest constituencies up and down the country on 4 July, The Independent takes a look at the company’s unusual structure and how it differs to other parties.Nigel Farage during a press conference to announce he will become the new leader of Reform UK and that he will stand as the parliamentary candidate for Clacton, Essex More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour and the Conservatives are “avoiding the reality” that their economic plans will mean they will have to enact “sharp” spending cuts after the general election, a leading economic think tank has warned.In an analysis published on Tuesday, The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said neither of the main parties appeared “serious about the underlying principle of getting debt falling”.Both main parties are committed to meeting the fiscal rule of getting debt on a downward path between 2028/29 and 2029/30. However the IFS forecasts say that the future chancellor will be “fortunate” to meet this aim.The think-tank criticised the current fiscal rules which are “arbitrary and gameable” and that it was a “poor guide to the health of the public finances”.While Labour is committed to the overall debt rule, the party is proposing to change the “supplementary” fiscal target in the future to focus on the current balance of borrowing and spending, rather than overall borrowing.The IFS said this would mean revenues would cover day-to-day spending, but would allow borrowing to invest.It added: “There are good arguments for treating day-to-day and investment spending differently, and similar targets were in place from 1997 to 2015 under both Conservative and Labour chancellors.”But the overall, currently binding debt rule did not make a distinction between investment and day-to-day spending, meaning Labour’s plan to borrow £23.7 billion to increase investment in supporting the transition to net zero would make it more difficult to stick within the rule.IFS analysis shows that under the March Budget, forecasts suggest Labour could instigate the extra borrowing without missing the debt target.But it is not possible to conclude this will be possible at the time of a post-election autumn fiscal event, which will be accompanied by a new set of forecasts and other “moving parts” and external economic factors, the IFS said.Isabel Stockton, senior research economist at IFS, described the fiscal rule as having “an unfortunate combination of characteristics”.She added: “It is eminently gameable – and has already been gamed almost to irrelevance by the current government; it is the loosest debt rule we have had in the past 30 years; and yet it is currently so constraining that it will either be breached, or will result in policies in practice quite different to those currently being peddled.“It is, to be kind, not a sensible rule, and neither party appears serious about the underlying principle of getting debt falling.“This has led to both parties avoiding the reality that they are effectively signed up to sharp spending cuts, while arguing over smaller changes to taxes and spending.”Commenting on March forecasts suggesting Labour’s plan for net-zero investment could narrowly fall within the fiscal rule, Ms Stockton added: “If that remains the case come the autumn, then whoever is chancellor by then will be able to consider themselves fortunate. Labour, or anyone serious about government, should not rely on getting lucky.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA Labour candidate for a seat in east London has withdrawn from the general election following an allegation of sexual harassment.Councillor Darren Rodwell, the leader of Barking and Dagenham Council, denied any wrongdoing as he said that he would not run in the election, to be held next month.It comes a day after The Independent revealed Labour was investigating the allegations made against the Barking candidate by a party member on Friday to Labour’s complaints unit.Mr Rodwell’s alleged victim said she met him for a coffee while at an event, believing the meeting was set up to discuss a development in Barking. Mr Rodwell has since said he has no recollection or record of such a meeting.In the communication to the party, the complainant said: “After 10 to 15 minutes, he started asking personal questions which I was not happy to answer. He was ordering more drinks for himself. As I was obviously not happy to be present and was looking for a way to leave, he started touching my hands and legs in a sexual way.“He clearly had other ideas about the meeting. He touched my legs and body inappropriately and I’ve made it clear to him that I did not want him to touch me and left the meeting immediately.”The complaint file, seen by The Independent, reads: “The complainant has received confirmation that an investigator will be contacting her in regards to the allegations.”Labour had previously declined to comment on what it called an ongoing disciplinary matter. Darren Rodwell is an influential local government figure in London More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak could have avoided the expected election catastrophe facing him and the Conservative Party if he had agreed to make a deal with Nigel Farage.The Independent has learnt that Tory Brexiteer MP Andrea Jenkyns and former Leave.EU communications director Andy Wigmore attempted to broker a deal between the Tories and Reform.Sources have suggested that Mr Sunak “was interested” but dissuaded from going ahead by his key advisers.Around six weeks before the prime minister made his rain-sodden announcement of a snap election on the steps of Downing Street, he is understood to have met with Ms Jenkyns who presented him with a plan to save the Tories.Nigel Farage arrives in Clacton More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour announced its ‘triple-lock’ commitment to Britain’s nuclear deterrent on June 3, with Sir Keir Starmer aiming to prove his defence credentials before the general election next month.The Labour leader said his party would build four new nuclear submarines if elected, and ensure Britain’s nuclear deterrent remains at sea “24 hours a day, 365 days a year.”It is the latest policy offering from Labour ahead of the general election, as both parties continue to give hints of what their final election manifestos may contain.For the latest political updates ahead of the general election, follow The Independent’s live coverageSir Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner and Rachel Reeves (Lucy North/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNigel Farage’s decision to stand as MP and take over as party leader could change Reform UK’s chances of winning seats in the general election, says polling firm YouGov.Reform was on course to come out of the election empty-handed, according to forecasts on Monday.But the data’s release came hours before The Independent broke the news that Nigel Farage had decided to stand as the party’s candidate in Clacton, Essex.According to YouGov’s director of political analytics, Patrick English, the announcement “significantly increases the odds” that Reform could win at least one seat – and even up to four.He told The Independent: “I do think that Farage intervening significantly increases the odds of Reform UK winning one, perhaps even two seats in Westminster. You might even put an upper band of four on that, depending on what exactly happens between now and 4 July.”He added: “Certainly, it will improve Reform’s prospects. It will give them a highly competent, highly experienced strong messenger in Nigel Farage to go out, not just in Clacton, but around the rest of the country, to try and deliver that Reform UK message.”Which seats could go to Reform?Before Mr Farage’s announcement, YouGov predicted that no seat would be won by Reform, despite 300 candidates throwing their hat in the ring. Any Reform win is still far from certain. The seats to watch are those where Reform is fielding its heavy hitters, according to Mr English.He said: “[For Reform successes], we’re looking at Clacton. We’re looking at Ashfield, because Lee Anderson is standing there trying to defend his seat as a defector. We’re looking at Boston and Skegness where Richard Tice is standing.”YouGov’s polling analysis on Monday suggested that Reform has a margin of 15 points or more to close in its top constituencies, even in Ashfield, where former Tory Mr Anderson hopes to retain the seat. In Clacton, Reform was 22 points behind the Conservatives, but this gap is expected to close considerably with Mr Farage replacing Tony Mack as the candidate.Clacton is the only seat ever won by Ukip, Mr Farage’s former party, when it was retained in 2015 by Tory defector Douglas Carswell. In 2019, it was gained for the Conservatives by former actor Giles Watling. In addition, Mr English suggests keeping an eye on seats in South Yorkshire, where Reform might find success among previous Ukip and Brexit voters.“We’re also looking up toward Barnsley and Doncaster,” said Mr English. “There are a couple of seats there where the Brexit Party did very well in 2019, but I think Reform UK could potentially be very strong there as well.”He added: “It’s important to maintain the distinction between Ukip and Reform. One thing that’s very prominent is, of course, Nigel Farage is no longer talking about Brexit, and that was Ukip’s sole purpose. The switch has now gone to focusing on immigration and British cultural values. It is a different party, but a lot of its supporters and all of its base will be very similar.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour is expected to drop a general election candidate days after The Independent revealed he was under investigation for alleged sexual harassment. Darren Rodwell, the party’s candidate for Barking, has been accused of ‘inappropriate touching’ of a woman at an event last month.He was not on a list of candidates rubber stamped by the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) on Tuesday. Although he could still technically be approved before nominations close on Friday afternoon, a leaked memo suggests the party is planning to ditch him.Darren Rodwell, Labour candidate for Barking, who is being investigated by party for alleged sexual harassment More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have been urged to unveil plans to tackle hardship at their first TV debate on Tuesday night, as new analysis suggests an estimated 900,000 people are just £10 a week from the poverty line.The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) said that current levels of poverty were “a stain on the moral conscience of our nation” and that whoever becomes prime minister on 4 July must reverse “this dismal trend a priority”.It comes as the two political leaders are set to face off on ITV and try to convince the nation’s voters to back their party in the upcoming general election.Official statistics released earlier this year showed the estimated total number of people in relative low income was at 14.35 million in the year to March 2023, with some 4.33 million of those being children.The latest figure for young people was the highest since comparable records for the UK began in 2002/03, and prompted campaigners at the time to say young people are being failed and forgotten.Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are going head-to-head on Tuesday evening in an ITV debate More