UK Politics

Starmer says he would be prepared to deploy nuclear weapons if needed to defend UKSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour are on course to surpass Tony Blair’s landslide majority in 1997, according to YouGov’s first major poll of the general election campaign.The pollsters’ MRP forecast, based on data from more than 58,000 people, suggests Sir Keir Starmer’s party will win a huge majority of 194, with some 422 seats, while the Conservatives could suffer their biggest loss since 1906, winning just 140 seats.The poll – which came after Nigel Farage announced his intention to stand as an MP, in a blow to the Tories – also followed Redfield and Wilton’s second nationwide poll, of 10,000 people – which put the Tories on just 20 per cent, 26 points behind Labour. Another mega-poll published over the weekend had earlier suggested that the Tories could win just 66 seats in parliament.The result would be a Labour landslide, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party securing 476 MPs – a majority of 302 – once tactical voting has been taken into account. This blog will keep track of every major poll released between now and the general election, and what it means for the parties. Show latest update 1717509844ICYMI: YouGov: Labour on track for historic 422-seat win as Tories predicted to lose key seatsLabour is projected to win 422 seats across the UK in a historic landslide victory, according to a new MRP prediction from YouGov released on Monday.Under this prediction, today, Labour would enjoy a 194-seat majority, larger than the one achieved by Tony Blair at the 1997 general election.The forecast predicted the Conservatives would lose 223 seats and be left with just 140. That would be the worst loss for the Tories in well over 100 years, since then-prime minister Arthur Balfour lost 246 seats in 1906.Alicja Hagopian reports.Joe Middleton4 June 2024 15:041717491824Burley tells Cleverly the Tories will get “battered” according to YouGov pollSky’s Kay Burley listed the twelve cabinet members who are predicted to lose their seats in the YouGov poll that has Labour are on course to surpass Tony Blair’s landslide majority in 1997.She told home secretary James Cleverly the party is “going to get battered according to this”.He responded: “The whole point of an election campaign is you make your case to the British people and when I speak to people they want to hear what our plan for the future.”Joe Middleton4 June 2024 10:031717447352Labour will win more southern seats than Tories, YouGov poll suggestsIn a blow to Rishi Sunak, YouGov’s new poll suggests Labour could be on course to win more seats in the south of England than the Conservatives, even when excluding London.Andy Gregory3 June 2024 21:421717445347YouGov poll suggests biggest Labour majority since 1924YouGov’s MRP poll predicts Labour would win a 194-seat majority – which would mark the highest number since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.Andy Gregory3 June 2024 21:091717442795The Lib Dems are on course to win 44 seats, according to YouGov’s new poll – which would be four times as many as in 2019.Unsupported twitter embedAndy Gregory3 June 2024 20:261717441535YouGov poll in graphs: How many seats could each party win? More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe general election campaign is in full swing with party leaders travelling across the country announcing policies and speaking to voters. Over the past two weeks, there has been no shortage of gaffes and blunders, particularly from prime minister Rishi Sunak. It has left Baroness Ruth Davidson, the former Scottish Conservative leader, wondering whether a mole had been planted inside the Tories communications team to sabotage Mr Sunak. From being soaked outside Number 10 as he called the snap election without an umbrella, to being asked if he was captaining a “sinking ship” when he visited Belfast’s Titanic Quarter, the PM’s campaign has been far from ideal. Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has also had his fair share of blunders. He has been spotted falling off a paddleboard, riding a waterslide in a rubber ring and skidding down a hill on a bike – all as part of his campaign trail.With 30 days until voters head to the polls, party communications teams will be hoping to avoid any more slip ups. The Independent has put together the best gaffes and blunders from the election campaign below. Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party‘Things can only get wetter’: Sunak drenched as he announces electionRishi Sunak drenched as he announces snap electionThe campaign hadn’t even begun when the prime minister made his first mistake – swapping the £2.6 million Downing Street press briefing room for the Great British Outdoors.Heavy rain poured down on the prime minister, who spoke from a lectern outside No 10 without an umbrella. Labour’s 1997 theme Things Can Only Get Better by D:Ream was blasted from a speaker, drowning out Mr Sunak’s attempts to boast of his inflation achievements.Mr Sunak, wearing a suit with a light blue tie, became increasingly soaked during the speech. A few days later, the PM admitted he “was a bit wet” during the announcement. Own goal at Welsh brewery over national team’s Euros absenceRishi Sunak asks Welsh voters if they are looking forward to Euros – despite team not qualifyingOne day into the election trail, Mr Sunak asked staff at a brewery in Barry, South Wales,  if they were looking forward to this summer’s football, despite the national team not qualifiying for the Euros.But one of the pub workers was quick to correct him on his mishap, following Wales’s play-off final defeat to Poland in March.He interjected and said “Only if you support England!”, to which Mr Sunak awkwardly replied the hospitality industry was one the Conservatives supported.Captain of a “sinking ship” at the Titanic QuarterRishi Sunak wears a life jacket during his visit to the Titanic Quarter More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Conservatives have pledged to change the law if they win the general election so transgender people could be legally excluded from single-sex spaces.Kemi Badenoch said she would change the Equality Act so that the legal definition of sex matched biological sex, enabling male-bodied people to be legally excluded from single-sex spaces.The announcement comes after Rishi Sunak announced his ‘triple lock plus’ policy, as well as national service for school leavers. The steady drip of policy offerings comes while both parties are likely working away behind the scenes to finalise their manifesto offerings.For the latest political updates ahead of the general election, follow The Independent’s live coverageMr Sunak announced the general election on May 22. Upstaged by the rain – and pranksters loudly playing D:Ream’s ‘Things Can Only Get Better’, closely associated with Tony Blair’s 1997 Labour victory – the prime minister reminisced on his time in office, before making the big announcement.Rishi Sunak, soaked in rain, announces the July 4 general election More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA former Tory government minister voiced concern over his own party’s economic record and said it has presided over 15 years of wage stagnation.Matt Warman, the Skegness and Boston MP, and former deputy chair of the One Nation group of Tory MPs, said at an event in February there were now two “catch-up generations”.He was responding to a question from Professor Anand Menon, who asked if Mr Warman was concerned that the government had failed to deal with the issues of Covid-19 catch-up for children’s education.Mr Warman said: “So I think you’re absolutely right that there is a huge – there is a ‘catch-up generation’ – if you like. And there are two generations that worry me, if you like from some political appeal point of view.“One is, and I’m not that far away from this myself, one is people who came of age in the wake of a financial crash. “And they are people where essentially wages stagnated for 15 years. And there are good reasons why things couldn’t have been done particularly differently or better. But it’s a hard political argument.”Mr Warman said there is now a ‘catch-up generation’ of children post-Covid pandemic More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailFormer leader Jeremy Corbyn has accused Labour of trying to silence Diane Abbott and hanging her “out to dry” as Britain’s first Black female MP faced horrific racist abuse. Mr Corbyn said the treatment of the veteran politician, who has been at the centre of a storm over whether she would be allowed to stand for the party, had been an “utter disgrace”. Ms Abbott is expected to be confirmed as a Labour candidate on Tuesday, despite accusing Sir Keir Starmer of lying about his respect for her in a swiftly deleted tweet. Writing for The Independent, Mr Corbyn said: “The way that Diane Abbott has been treated is an utter disgrace – and I am disgusted by the blatant double-standards, hypocrisy and contempt for local democracy, in plain sight for all to see. “Take a look at her social media and you will see the horrific levels of racist abuse she is forced to endure – and she has been hung out to dry.” Diane Abbott served as shadow home secretary under Jeremy Corbyn More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSir Keir Starmer and prime minister Rishi Sunak with go head-to-head on Tuesday evening as ITV hosts the first general election debate between the leaders of the UK’s two largest parties.It marks the first in a packed line-up of debates throughout June, all hosted by either the BBC, ITV or Sky.Tuesday’s television event will be hosted by Julie Etchingham, a veteran journalist and presenter who has been a leading figure at ITV since 2008.Julie Etchingham is set to host the first head-to-head debate between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has suffered his latest campaign gaffe after his party’s first election broadcast depicted the Union Jack flying upside down.The prime minister’s video pointed to uncertain times fuelled by “pandemic, war in Europe and the Middle East, a reckless dictator in Russia… China”.“We face unprecedented challenges here at home because of global insecurity, but by sticking with the plan Rishi Sunak is steadying the ship and making progress,” a deep-voiced narrator says over footage of the PM working.Click here for our live coverage of the general election campaign.But, just minutes after the video was released, it was pointed out that perhaps the most striking part of the video is a shot of the UK’s flag upside down.The Flag Institute, which researches and promotes the use and design of flags, says it is “most improper to fly the flag upside down”.The Union Jack drew attention on social media More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailBusiness groups, food producers and a Labour-supporting union have warned Sir Keir Starmer that the UK needs foreign workers to help ease labour shortages, after he vowed to cut immigration.The Labour leader said the net migration figure of 685,000 has “got to come down” and hit out at Rishi Sunak’s Conservative for failing to cut the numbers.He said that businesses had become too reliant on workers from overseas and said Labour would train more Britons to do jobs in areas where there were labour shortages.However, leading business groups and food producers called for “credible” plans to be put forward and warned that skilled migrants would still be needed to fill vacancies.Matthew Percival, future of work and skills director, at the CBI, said: “The need for work visas is increased by skills and labour shortages and businesses want to see all political parties put forward credible plans to ease shortages and support growth. “The CBI has long called for a stronger link between shortages and the training that is available. It’s a key part of a more honest conversation about immigration.”The Labour leader said that businesses had become ‘too reliant’ on workers from overseas (PA) More