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    Angela Rayner said she wants to scrap nuclear weapons hours after Starmer said shadow cabinet backs him

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAngela Rayner has said she still wants to rid the world of nuclear weapons – just hours after Sir Keir Starmer said his whole shadow cabinet was right behind his position on the UK’s nuclear deterrent.On Monday Sir Keir said he was prepared to deploy weapons to protect Britain and announced a “triple lock” commitment for maintaining the Trident system.In 2016 some of his shadow cabinet members voted against renewing the Trident deterrent, including deputy leader Angela Rayner and shadow foreign secretary David Lammy.When asked about this, Sir Keir responded: “I lead this party. I have changed this party. If we are privileged to come in to serve, I will be the prime minister of the United Kingdom and I’ve made my commitment to this absolutely clear and I’ve got my whole cabinet, shadow cabinet, behind me.”Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer said his whole shadow cabinet was behind his position on the Trident system More

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    John Curtice says Nigel Farage could cost Tories up to 60 seats

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailPolling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has said Nigel Farage’s decision to take over as leader of Reform UK will deal a significant blow to the Conservatives, potentially costing them as many as 60 seats.Mr Curtice noted Mr Farage’s announcement, as first revealed exclusively by The Independent at Monday lunchtime, came on the same afternoon as the release of YouGov’s first MRP poll for this election, which has the Conservatives down nearly 20 points in the vote and at risk of losing three in five of their seats.These polling figures are at least partly due to the steady 10 per cent support for the Reform party, led by Mr Farage, which attracts former Conservative voters who supported Brexit in 2019, he said.Mr Farage on Monday electrified the general election campaign by announcing yet another bid to become an MP and run in Tory-held Clacton in Essex, amid what was already being described as “an existential risk” for the Tories in the 4 July election.The decision comes as a major blow to Rishi Sunak’s electoral hopes, as the former Ukip leader – who had said he would not run to be an MP – confirmed he had changed his mind and decided to contest the general election.Writing in The Times, Mr Curtice noted that most of Reform’s support came from those who supported Boris Johnson’s 2019 “Get Brexit Done” appeal. Many of those supporters would support the Conservatives if Reform were not an option, he suggests.Mr Farage’s decision five years ago to withdraw his Brexit Party candidates from constituencies that were being defended by the Conservatives led to a dramatic decrease in support for his party.His pledge to challenge Tory-held seats makes it more probable that Reform will perform better in this election, Mr Curtice said.Reform’s decision to challenge Conservative-held seats “is but one reason why YouGov’s estimate that the Conservatives could find themselves with just 140 seats is credible”, he said.The professor at the University of Strathclyde said that “implies that the party could lose as many as 60 more seats than would be the case if its support were to fall by the same amount everywhere.”Explaining his bid to become an MP, Mr Farage said he could not let down “millions of people” who had supported his past political projects.At what he dubbed an emergency press conference, he added: “Something is happening out there.“There is a rejection of the political class going on in this country in a way that has not been seen in modern times.” More

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    Should 16- year-olds be allowed to vote in the general election? Join The Independent Debate

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailIn 1969, Harold Wilson’s Labour government lowered the voting age from 21 to 18. More than fifty years on, Sir Keir Starmer believes the time has come to lower the voting age even further, to 16.The idea is not a new one. It was first rejected by Parliament back in 1999 and again in 2005.The Labour leader has plans to lower the voting age to 16 if his party wins July’s general election.On a campaign visit to Stafford last week, the Labour leader confirmed plans to follow Scotland and Wales in extending the vote to a further 1.5 million people, telling reporters: “If you can work, if you can pay tax, if you can serve in your armed forces, then you ought to be able to vote.”The “extremely straightforward” legislation could appear as soon as the King’s Speech, a Labour source told The Times, which estimated that such a move could flip eight Tory seats red in England alone. Members of the Tory party have been critical of the proposals, however. Conservative Bob Seely said: ”Perhaps Labour think younger voters will be easier to pull the wool over than older folks with a bit of life experience.”And Sir Iain Duncan Smith accused Sir Keir of ‘virtue signalling’, adding: “This is a gimmick done by those who think their party is more likely to get the vote.”Now we want to know what you think. Is lowering the voting age a simple ‘gimmick’ or is it necessary for proper democracy?Share your thoughts by adding them in the comments — we’ll highlight the most insightful ones as they come in.All you have to do is sign up and register your details — then you can take part in the discussion. You can also sign up by clicking ‘log in’ on the top right-hand corner of the screen.Make sure you adhere to our community guidelines, which can be found here. For a full guide on how to comment click here.Join the conversation with other Independent readers below. More

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    Tractors rumble in streets again ahead of EU polls. Farming is a big issue and the far right pounces

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email The far-right Flemish Interest party had set up the demonstration in the picture-pretty rolling fields south of Brussels, ahead of the four-day European Union elections which start Thursday. The goal was clear: Decrying how farmers would lose fertile land to what they see as overbearing environmentalists trying to turn it into a chain of woods, killing off a traditional way of life. It was also another show how agriculture has been instrumentalized by the populist and hard right groups throughout the 27-nation bloc.And in a final push on Tuesday, militant agricultural groups from more than a half dozen nations were converging on EU headquarters in a show of force that they hoped would sweep the progressive Green Deal climate pact off the table in the wake of the elections and give farmers the leeway they had for so long in deciding how to till the land.“As a farmer, you have just been turned into a number,” growled Eduard Van Overstraeten, who said that of the 60 hectares he used to farm for wheat, corn and potatoes, he now was forced to sell a quarter of it — including his farmhouse — to help make a string of distinct woods around Brussels to become one continuous nature zone to improve biodiversity and fight pollution. Similar stories of discontent, centering on limiting use of manure and pesticides to forcing parts of farm land to be kept pristine nature zones for the benefit of birds and bees — and eventually the population at large — have driven this influential electoral base of conservative Christian Democrats further to the fringes of the right. “Nobody defends us, so others have to come to power,” said Van Overstraeten. And just as a wealthy think tank funded by the self-proclaimed illiberal Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has helped Tuesday’s and previous demonstrations in Brussels, it is the surging Flemish Interest party that does so at a local level.“They are looking for another party that brings a credible story. And that is us,” said Klaas Slootmans, parliamentarian for the Flemish Interest.“It is common sense that you need to protect farmers and food supplies,” he added. And it is the crux of the political issue that pits farmers against environmentalists, the greens and much of the left against the populist and far-right forces: do you protect farmers and food supplies by giving farmers free rein to work as they see best? Or by hemming them in and imposing strict regulations to cut pollution and promote a life closer to nature that would contain the excesses of climate change?Over the past year though, scientific arguments have taken a second seat to the rumble of the street.Crucially, the center parties, especially the Christian Democrats, have started to dither and waver toward the right following months of unrelenting demonstrations across the bloc, with hundreds of tractors often blocking essential economic lifelines or many of the Europe’s great cities like Paris and Madrid.As climate change, with droughts, heatwaves, floods and fires, started to increasingly wreak havoc, the EU sought to bring tough laws as part of its Green Deal to make the bloc climate-neutral by 2050. Agriculture accounts for more than 10% of EU greenhouse gas emissions, from sources such as the nitrous oxide in fertilizers, carbon dioxide from vehicles and methane from cattle.For years the EU became the globe’s trendsetter which earned plenty of plaudits on the international stage, but lost its farming base which was increasingly lost in myriad rules that sometimes pinpointed when could be sowed and reaped, and even had satellite surveillance to check on it. It was fodder for the extreme right, which railed in the European Parliament and in countless demonstrations about bureaucratic interference. And at EU and national level, ambitious plans have already been curtailed. In the Netherlands, the new coalition plans are rife with measures that largely meet the demands of farmers and counter those of environmentalists. The coalition is dominated by the extreme right party of Geert Wilders. The groundswell of defiance has driven many to a level of farming militancy not seen in decades. The Dutch Farmers Defense Force, which is behind Tuesday’s match, often calls its members “fighters,” and some of the demonstrations have resulted in violence. Tuesday’s march was supposed to be the culminating point of the months of protests, with rumors of up to 100,000 protesters coming. Jos Ubels, the No. 2 of the FDF, said however that nature had intervened. Much of Western Europe is going through its wettest spring in living memory and even in early June, land lays unsown and blights are ravaging the lands, he said. “We won’t get to 100,000. Instead it will be in the thousands. The weather has made it impossible.”Environmentalists would argue it is partly because of climate change. More

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    Tories vow annual cap on visas in general election pledge to reduce immigration

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Conservative Party has unveiled a new general election pledge to cut immigration by creating a new annual cap on visas – as Rishi Sunak faces an intensified challenge from Nigel Farage’s right-wing party Reform UK.In a new policy announced hours after Mr Farage stated his intention to stand as a candidate for Clacton, the Tories vowed to put a yearly limit on the number of UK visas issued, a move long demanded by Tory hardliners including the former home secretary Suella Braverman. With Mr Sunak claiming on Monday night that his was “the only party that is willing take the bold action needed to cut immigration figures”, the Tories vowed to give parliament a direct role in setting levels of migration to Britain.The plans would see the government ask its Migration Advisory Committee (Mac) to provide a recommendation for level of the annual visa cap, which ministers will then consider before putting the proposals to parliament for a vote. The Tory party wants to get migration down to sustainable levels More

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    Why Clacton is the perfect place for Farage to launch his bid to eclipse the Tories

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNigel Farage today announced that he is standing in the Essex seaside town of Clacton in an eighth attempt to win a seat in the House of Commons (as was first revealed in The Independent).After seven previous failed attempts in Eastleigh, Bexhill and Battle, Salisbury, Thanet South (twice), Bromley and Chislehurst, and Buckingham, Mr Farage and his supporters believe that this time he stands a real chance of winning the seat in the Commons that has always eluded him.But why Clacton? What is it about the quiet seat filled with pensioners, with its pier and arcades, that makes it the perfect place for the former Brexit Party and Ukip leader to stand?After all, this was the seat that delivered Tory MP Giles Watling, a former actor who was in the sitcom Bread, a massive 24,702 majority in 2019.Nigel Farage confirms he will stand as Reform UK candidate in the general election: ‘I can’t let down millions of people’ More

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    Tories face ‘existential risk’ as Farage declares he will stand as a candidate for Reform UK

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNigel Farage has electrified the general election campaign, taking over as leader of Reform UK and launching a bid to become an MP.As first revealed by The Independent, Mr Farage will run in Tory-held Clacton in Essex in what is already being described as “an existential risk” for the Tories.The decision comes as a major blow to Rishi Sunak’s electoral hopes, as the former Ukip leader – who had said he would not run to be an MP – confirmed he had changed his mind and decided to contest the general election.Within hours of the revelation, Tory MPs and candidates were being asked to attend a briefing on an “immigration lock” pledge which means a Conservative government would set a legal limit on annual immigration figures. The move was being seen as a bid to stop Reform UK and Mr Farage splitting the vote on the right.Mr Farage’s announcement came on a day when two major polls suggested that the Tories were already heading for a historically bad defeat. A YouGov MRP poll of 12,000 people predicted Labour will have its biggest ever majority, of 194, with the Tories marooned on 140 seats.Earlier a Redfield and Wilton poll of 10,000 voters put Labour 26 points ahead of the Conservatives on just 20 per cent, suggesting the party could be down to a mere 24 seats. This followed an MRP poll at the weekend suggesting the Tories could be down to 66 seats.Click here for our live coverage of the general election campaign.Nigel Farage’s return as leader of Reform UK came with a promise to serve for five years alongside the Conservatives in opposition More

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    YouGov: Labour on track for historic 422-seat win as Tories predicted to lose key seats

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour is projected to win 422 seats across the UK in a historic landslide victory, according to a new MRP prediction from YouGov released on Monday.Under this prediction, today, Labour would enjoy a 194-seat majority, larger than the one achieved by Tony Blair at the 1997 general election. The forecast predicted the Conservatives would lose 223 seats and be left with just 140. That would be the worst loss for the Tories in well over 100 years, since then-prime minister Arthur Balfour lost 246 seats in 1906. The YouGov survery suggested several prominent Tory MPs and cabinet ministers could lose their seats next month, including defence secretary Grant Shapps, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, and former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg.YouGov’s MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) prediction combines polling data from over 58,000 individuals, with local factors and voter characteristics to estimate election outcomes on a constituency level. Labour are set to secure key gains from historic Tory seats, particularly in the North of England. Constituencies thought to be going from blue to red include Leeds North West, Bury North and Bury South.The Tories are not projected to win a single new seat. In addition, they may lose all but four seats in London while Labour take 65.The Green Party could win one new seat in Bristol Central, with a projected 13 point lead over Labour, for co-leader Carla Denyer. More than 130 of 650 seats are a ‘toss-up’ according to YouGov’s analysis, with no candidate projected to win more than a 5 per cent majority. This means that 20 per cent of seats are set to be a very tight race. The Lib Dems, at 11 per cent in the polls, are projected to win 48 seats; five times more than the party won in 2019. The safest Lib Dem gains include Harrogate and Knaresborough, Cheadle, and Lewes, all of which were previously Tory seats.Meanwhile right-wing challenger party Reform UK are not projected to win any seats, despite over 300 candidates standing across the UK. The party is currently polling at 12 per cent, according to latest Techne polls.However, today’s shock announcement that Nigel Farage will take over as Reform leader could have an impact on whether the party wins seats on election day. Mr Farage remains insistent that Reform will win seats despite projections, adding: “I think there’s every chance we’ll get more votes than the Conservative Party. I genuinely do.”Farage is running as an MP for Clacton, Essex, where YouGov’s estimate show that the Tories are estimated to win 42 per cent of votes, with Labour in second at 27 per cent and Reform at 19 per cent. More