Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailIt began as a whisper, in the nerdier corners of political social media. Now, as the election nears, the question isn’t quite a roar, but it’s being asked everywhere from national newspapers to the pages of The Spectator, the bible of the right: is Rishi Sunak facing a Canada 1993 moment?The similarities are enough to send shivers down the spines of Tory candidates – ruling Conservatives challenged at an election by a right-wing party called “Reform”. In Canada, the result was electoral oblivion: 167 parliamentary seats lost – including those of then-prime minister Kim Campbell – to leave the Progressive Conservative Canadian Party with just two seats, and the Liberal Party in power. With Sunak’s party already facing a 24-point deficit in the polls to Labour, is there a chance that British Conservatives could face a similar fate?The answer, it seems, is no – or at least, not unless things go catastrophically wrong for the Conservatives between now and 4 July.Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, told The Independent that, though they face a challenge from voters either switching to Reform UK or not turning out at all on polling day, things would have to get “signficantly worse” for the Tories to end up with a Canada-style wipeout.Labour would require a 33-point lead, which would leave the Conservatives with fewer than 10 seats, according to Mr Baxter.He said: “It’s amazing that we’re asking the question, seeing that the Conservatives won a thumping majority just five years ago. But five years is a very long time in politics.”Facing down Reform UKThe threat from the right is coming from Reform UK, led by Richard Tice and supported by Nigel Farage, though the former Ukip and Brexit Party leader is not running himself. They have zeroed in on high immigration as a key issue on which to challenge Mr Sunak.Currently Reform is polling at 12 per cent, nine points behind the Conservative Party. Although Reform is not predicted to win any seats, Mr Tice has vowed to stand a candidate in every constituency.The key concern to the Tories, however, is in marginal seats. In the most recent byelections, Reform received 13 per cent of the vote in Wellingborough and 10.4 per cent in Kingswood.In the Kingswood byelection, Labour beat the Conservatives with a majority of 2,501 – almost the exact number of votes Reform received (2,578).Chris Hopkins, of leading polling firm Savanta, added: “Reform UK here doesn’t even look likely to pick up one parliamentary seat in our upcoming election, let alone become the official opposition.“The main role of Reform UK in this general election isn’t going to be winning seats, but helping the Conservatives lose theirs.“There are lots of seats where the splintering of the right vote will make it much easier for Labour and the Liberal Democrats to pick up seats.”Currently Reform is polling at 12 per cent, nine points behind the Conservative Party More