UK Politics

Tinkering around the edges at the next Budget risks another year of economic pain, a leading think tank has warned, urging the chancellor to take “bold action” in November. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said it expects Rachel Reeves will need to find at least £22bn next month, thanks to rising borrowing costs, weaker growth forecasts and spending commitments made since spring. But the IFS said there was a “strong case” for the chancellor to go further, arguing that a £10bn buffer – the amount of headroom Ms Reeves previously left herself against her self-imposed debt rules – was not enough to ensure stability and would leave her “limping from one forecast to the next”. This funding, the think tank said, is likely to have to come from tax rises. While the think tank didn’t rule out spending cuts entirely, they said they would “pose challenges” due to a lack of parliamentary support for welfare cuts and the fact that departmental budgets were only agreed in June. Rachel Reeves is facing a ‘groundhog day’ Budget More

One part of the UK might escape Keir Starmer’s flagship smoking ban because of a key post-Brexit deal with the European Union, a minister has admitted. The government wants to ban smoking for an entire generation, potentially saving millions of lives by ensuring anyone currently aged 15 or younger will never be able to buy cigarettes legally. The proposals were first put forward by Rishi Sunak but abandoned ahead of the 2024 general election. Labour has enthusiastically backed the plan since coming to power last summer.But now, asked for a guarantee that it would apply in Northern Ireland – as well as England, Wales and Scotland – a minister could only say that was the government’s “intention”. The ban is designed to eventually make the UK smoke free (PA) More

Sir Keir Starmer has announced that he will publish key evidence in the China spying case trial that led to the collapse of the trial.The prime minister told MPs at the start of Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) that he would publish three witness statements that were shared with prosecutors as he maintained his position that the last government is to blame for the failure to prosecute.The abandonment of the prosecution of Christopher Cash, 30, a former parliamentary researcher, and Christopher Berry, 33, a teacher, has raised serious questions over national security and government policy towards China.Both men, who deny wrongdoing, had been accused of passing secrets to China, but charges against them were dropped last month, with the Crown Prosecution Service saying the case collapsed because the government’s evidence did not show that China represented a threat to national security at the time of the alleged offences.Sir Keir told MPs: “I’m deeply disappointed by the outcome. We wanted to see prosecutions.”Starmer: ‘I’m deeply disappointed by the outcome. We wanted to see prosecutions’ More

Margaret Thatcher had two extramarital affairs, a new book has claimed. The former prime minister is said to have enjoyed an “extracurricular friendship” with a close aide who would touch her knee during dinners, while also having two affairs throughout her life. Tina Gaudoin’s new book, The Incidental Feminist, claims that the Iron Lady had an affair early in her career as an MP and a separate affair with another politician. Author Tina Gaudoin says Thatcher ‘was far more sexy in person than she appeared to be’ More

Rachel Reeves has admitted she is looking at tax rises and spending cuts to fill a massive financial black hole in her Budget.Asked about the state of the UK economy as she prepares to deliver her statement in November, the Chancellor said “of course, we’re looking at tax and spending”.Ms Reeves was speaking before heading to the United States for a meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).The IMF has warned inflation in the UK is set to surge to the highest in the G7 group of developed democracies in 2025 and 2026.And it increased its UK economic growth forecast for this year, but reduced its assessment for 2026 amid concerns over the labour market.Britain is set to be the second fastest growing G7 country this year, the IMF also said, with only the US growing faster.Asked about tax hikes in her Budget, the chancellor pinned the blame on Brexit, which she said has had a “severe and long lasting” impact on the economy. She is the latest top Labour figure to speak out publicly on the impacts of Brexit, after years in which the party feared being accused of betraying the result of the EU referendum if it was too overtly critical. She is the latest high profile Labour figure to criticise Brexit More

Boris Johnson is to blame for “throwing open” the UK’s borders and must take responsibility for the spike in legal immigration after Covid, his former right-hand man has said.Danny Kruger, who last month became Reform’s newest MP after defecting from the Conservatives, has previously praised Mr Johnson for leading the country out of the EU, even describing the former prime minister as a “hero”.But speaking to The Independent, Mr Kruger said Mr Johnson, who resigned as PM in the wake of the Partygate scandal, must take responsibility for the so-called “Boriswave” – a term coined by Nigel Farage to describe the post-Covid spike in legal migration.It comes after Mr Johnson defended himself against Mr Farage’s accusation that he was behind a “Boriswave”, when post-Brexit migration rules saw net migration hit a record level of 906,000 in the year ending June 2023.Mr Johnson said the numbers were impacted by the war in Ukraine and relocation of Hongkongers, as well as the return of EU students following the completion of courses.Kruger has previously praised Johnson for leading the country out of the EU More

People living in areas with poorer health outcomes are more likely to vote for Reform UK, new analysis has suggested. Experts at Imperial College London looked at voting data from the 2024 general election, when Nigel Farage’s party won five seats in England, and found that three of the five constituencies (60 per cent) returning a Reform MP were in the most deprived fifth of the country, compared with 103 (29.7 per cent) of Labour constituencies. The study, published in BMJ Open Respiratory Research, found that the strongest links between voting for Mr Farage’s party and conditions in constituencies were for obesity, COPD and epilepsy. Reform-voting areas had the highest proportion of people aged over 65, and people were more likely to suffer from 15 out of 20 health conditions compared to other regions.The illnesses included asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, dementia, depression, diabetes, learning disabilities, arthritis and obesity.The researchers said that the main finding of their analysis was “an association between poor health metrics at a constituency level and votes for Reform UK”, and that the results are consistent with data from the US that shows “a relationship between poor healthcare measures and Republican voting”.They said that the analysis should show Reform policy makers “there are profound health issues in their constituencies which should be addressed”. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage making a speech at Clacton Pier in Clacton (Ian West/PA) More

The public’s trust in politicians is eroding due to the failure to grip the migrant crisis, the home secretary is to warn.Shabana Mahmood is to issue the warning as she hosts her counterparts from across the Western Balkans, as well as other European allies, in London.She will go on to insist that Britain can only stem the flow of migrants arriving on small boats through international co-operation.The summit is aimed at ensuring European nations strike new deals to tackle illegal migration.At the gathering, the home secretary will say: “The public rightly expect that their government will be able to determine who enters their country, and who must leave.“Today, in this country, and I know in many if not all of yours, that is not the case.“And the failure to bring order to our borders is eroding trust not just in us as political leaders… But in the credibility of the state itself.”She is also expected to hit out at the government’s political opponents, such as Reform UK’s Nigel Farage, accusing them of wanting to “turn inwards” and seek solutions to migration without the aid of other countries.“Illegal migration is a shared threat which requires a strong, joined-up international response,” Ms Mahmood will say.She will add: “To those who think the answer to the challenges that we face is to turn inwards, or back away from international co-operation, I say that in coming together as we are today we will make all of our borders and our countries stronger.The summit is aimed at ensuring European nations strike new deals to tackle illegal migration More