Keir Starmer refuses to rule out raising national insurance contributionsYour support helps us to tell the storyThis election is still a dead heat, according to most polls. In a fight with such wafer-thin margins, we need reporters on the ground talking to the people Trump and Harris are courting. Your support allows us to keep sending journalists to the story.The Independent is trusted by 27 million Americans from across the entire political spectrum every month. Unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock you out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. But quality journalism must still be paid for.Help us keep bring these critical stories to light. Your support makes all the difference.CloseRead moreCloseHousing secretary Angela Rayner is planning to double the number of council homes after receiving a boost in the budget, according to reports. The deputy prime minister is set to announce nearly £1billion to begin a “council housing revolution” and build tens of thousands of extra homes, The Times reported. Ms Rayner believes council housing is crucial for the government’s target of 1.5 million new homes in the next five years.As part of the plan, the deputy PM is also set to crack down on the Right to Buy scheme, which allows council house residents to buy their homes below market value, according to The Times. A senior government source told The Times: “Angela’s ambitions on social and council housing have the full backing of the prime minister and chancellor, and that will become even clearer in the weeks ahead.”They are joined at the hip when it comes to getting Britain building.”We’ll be bringing you all the latest updates ahead of the big event on 30 October here, on The Independent’s liveblog.Show latest update 1729521839UK interest rates will drop to 2.75 per cent, Goldman Sachs predictsJabed Ahmed21 October 2024 15:431729521117UK banks pay record amount in taxes after making bumper profitsUK banks paid a record amount in taxes last year after generating bumper profits, while the gap between taxation on the City and other global financial hubs widens, figures show.The UK banking sector’s total tax contribution was £44.8 billion for the financial year to the end of March, according to analysis produced by PwC for trade group UK Finance.With the government set to announce its Budget next week, there has been growing speculation over possible tax changes to help cover shortfalls in public finances.Gary Greenwood, a research analyst for Shore Capital Markets, said the Government would need to “think long and hard” before potentially increasing taxes for banks.“While taxing banks more may not get much pushback from the public, they already carry a relatively high tax burden in an international context and we feel that it would also be a damaging move when the Government is seeking to drive increased economic growth,” he said.Jabed Ahmed21 October 2024 15:311729519377What are the rumoured welfare spending cuts?Labour has made no secret of its ambition to reduce the government’s welfare spending bill, so Ms Reeves will likely take the Budget as her opportunity to do so.Speaking at Labour’s party conference, the prime minister said: “We will get the welfare bill down because we will tackle long-term sickness and support people back to work.”What has been confirmed is a crackdown on benefit fraud, which looks to save £1.6bn over the next five years. Also possible is the mooted reform to personal independence payments (PIP) to provide cash vouchers or expenses rather than regular payments – a Conservative-era policy that Labour has refused to rule out.Jabed Ahmed21 October 2024 15:021729518302Threat to high earners as Rachel Reeves looks to plug £40bn Budget black holeJabed Ahmed21 October 2024 14:451729515717Will there be an inheritance tax increase? Inheritance tax is a levy on the estate of someone who has died. This is their property, money and possessions. Crucially, it is not paid if the value of these things is below £325,000.The tax rate is 40 per cent, but it’s only charged on the part of the estate that’s above the threshold. In 2023/24, only 5 per cent of deaths generated an inheritance tax bill, raising around £7 billion.However, the IFS writes that the tax measure “is littered with special exemptions”. These include a business relief, the ability to pass on agricultural land tax-free, and the tax-free passing on of pension pots.The economic think tank says that ending these measures alone would raise £4.8bn a year by 2029.Jabed Ahmed21 October 2024 14:011729512177Could the government tax pension savings?Pension tax relief is a reduction of the amount of tax paid on private pensions. It helps workers save for retirement by boosting their pension pots.The amount of tax relief a person is granted is based on their income tax. It will effectively cancel out tax on pension contributions up to a maximum of £60,000.After this, contributions will be taxed at either 20, 40, or 45 per cent, depending on which income tax rate the worker falls into.However, the chancellor is thought to be considering a flat 30 per cent pension tax relief rate. This would mean that higher earners would effectively pay 10 per cent in tax, while those on the additional rate would pay 15.The measure would raise around £3 billion a year, with 7 million earners paying more tax. But it would be better news for basic rate earners, who would actually begin to receive a 10 per cent boost to their pension contributions.Evaluating the idea last year, the IFS said it would “redistribute the burden of taxation from the bottom 80 per cent to the top 20 per cent of earners.”Jabed Ahmed21 October 2024 13:021729510197Calls for budget to fund Iron Dome-style missile defence system in UKThe UK needs its own version of Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system to protect it from Russian aggression, former ministers have said. Former defence secretary Penny Mordaunt told The I: “This is a significant UK capability gap we must plug at the earliest opportunity. The forthcoming Budget must enable early work to be done on the alliance’s key needs and let the US and other partners know we mean business.”Jabed Ahmed21 October 2024 12:291729508517Budget 2024 preview: Capital Gains reformCapital Gains Tax (CGT) is paid on the profit made when an asset which has increased in value is sold. It is applied to things like the sale of personal possessions worth more than £6,000 (apart from a car), property that’s not the seller’s main home, shares and business assets.It is charged at 10 or 18 percent for basic rate taxpayers, and 20 or 24 for higher or additional rate earners. There is a tax-free allowance of £3,000.There are several ways CGT could be changed. In the run-up to the election, the Lib Dems and Greens both said they would rethink the tax bands to be more similar to income tax, raising an estimated £5.2bn a year.Jabed Ahmed21 October 2024 12:011729505637Fact check: Would raising employer national insurance be a ‘tax on working people’?Speculation has mounted in the subsequent months, with an increase in employer NICs now looking likely. The measure has caused strong political debate, focused on whether it would break Labour’s manifesto pledge to not raise taxes on “working people.”Ministers and Treasury officials have indicated the government’s position is that the measure would not break their manifesto pledge. Labour has not confirmed that an employer NIC hike will be included in the Budget, but has refused to rule the measure out. Meanwhile, Institute for Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson has argued it would be a “straightforward breach.”The tax expert adds that in the extreme case that an increase of one pence per pound in employer NICs was passed on to employees in the form of lower wages, the measure would only net £4.5 billion a year. He adds that the end figure would probably be a little higher than this, but much less than a previous HMRC estimate of £8.5 billion.Jabed Ahmed21 October 2024 11:131729502097Martin Lewis sends warning over Buy Now Pay Later crackdownMartin Lewis has issued a warning over a new crackdown on buy now, pay later products.The money expert has cautioned consumers it is a case of buy now, get protected later.Ministers have announced that millions of shoppers are to be protected by new rules for BNPL, as they are known.Mr Lewis welcomed the change saying: “Buy Now, Pay Later is now ubiquitous at online checkouts, so the fact it’s never been regulated is a travesty I and others have long campaigned on.“The last chancellor promised to regulate, then the tumbleweed rolled as he went silent, so I am delighted the new government has quickly restarted the process.”Jabed Ahmed21 October 2024 10:14 More