UK Politics

Rachel Reeves has been delivered yet another major blow in the run-up to her make-or-break Budget next month, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that UK inflation is set to surge to the highest in the G7 in 2025 and 2026.The beleaguered chancellor has already struggled to foster the economic growth she promised when Labour was elected last year, and the latest outlook report suggests that UK households are expected to face the highest rate of price inflation among the G7 group of advanced economies, driven in part by rising food and hospitality prices.The influential economic body said price inflation in the UK would increase more sharply than expected in both years compared with previous predictions from July. It expects UK inflation to average at 3.4 per cent in 2025, increasing from its previous prediction of 3.2 per cent.The forecasts also show that UK inflation is expected to slow slightly to 2.5 per cent next year, but this is nonetheless above the 2.3 per cent prediction from earlier this year. But it also came as the IMF increased its UK growth forecast for this year, while reducing its prediction for 2026 amid concerns over the labour market.The IMF’s report, which has been described as “grim”, casts doubt on the Bank of England’s hopes of bringing interest rates back down to the 2 per cent target rate in the near future.A higher interest rate could also increase the size of the black hole in the public finances, already estimated to be between £30bn and £40bn, by adding pressure to increase pensions in line with the triple lock guarantee, as well as upping the risk of public sector pay demands.The IMF’s latest report comes hours after a group of leading economists described Ms Reeves’s situation as “desperate”, with the UK running a structural deficit, and a row taking place within Labour over whether to impose wealth taxes or break the manifesto pledge to hike income tax, VAT or employee national insurance.Rachel Reeves has already struggled to foster the economic growth she promised when Labour was elected More

Migrants will need A-level standard English to work in the UK, under plans announced by the new home secretary. Shabana Mahmood has announced plans to raise the standard of English required from the current lower grade GCSE standard to the equivalent of A-level in speaking, listening, reading and writing.Ms Mahmood said it was “unacceptable” for migrants to come to the UK “without learning our language”, claiming they were “unable to contribute to our national life”. Migrants wanting to come to the UK on the skilled worker, high potential individual or scale-up visa routes will have to demonstrate they can speak B2 level English – equivalent to A-level standard – from 8 January 2026. This is up from the B1 level already required for these routes. To come to the UK on the skilled worker visa, migrants have to have a minimum annual salary of £41,700 or earn the “going rate” for their type of work, whichever is highest. On the high potential visa, applicants must have been awarded either a university degree, masters or PhD. The scale-up route is used for UK businesses that are fast-growing and need to hire foreign workers. Only 116 scale-up visas were issued in the year ending June 2025. Increased language requirements will also be announced for other visa routes, including dependents, soon, the Home Office said. Changes to the English language requirement were first reported in May when the government published their early plans in the immigration white paper. The new standard requires people to express themselves “fluently and spontaneously without much obvious searching for expression” and to be able to communicate flexibly in social, academic and work situations. Migrants wanting to come to the UK under these routes will have to pass a language test conducted by a Home Office-approved provider. According to the government’s impact assessment of the policy changes, which was published on Tuesday, an increase in English standards would result in an estimated decrease of between 400 and 1,500 visa applicants in 2026-7. This was modelled across the skilled worker, health and care worker and high potential individual routes.Home secretary Shabana Mahmood is also set to introduce higher language requirements for other visa routes too More

Chinese hackers pose a “highly sophisticated and capable” threat to the UK, GCHQ’s cyber security agency has warned.The warning came after the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) recorded a 50% increase in “highly significant” online incidents carried out by criminals and state-linked groups in the year to the end of August.The attacks on household names including Marks and Spencer, Co-op and Jaguar Land Rover have shown the real world impact of cyber attacks, the NCSC said.At the launch of the NCSC’s annual review, security minister Dan Jarvis said all Britons must “step up” and play their part in protecting the country online.He said: “Cyber crime is one of the greatest threats to our economy, to our businesses, to the livelihoods of our workers and while the Government is providing more cyber security support, we cannot do it alone.“We need businesses to lead the way, by making cyber security a top priority.“And we need citizens to step up and take personal responsibility for their cyber safety.”He warned that “any syndicate of cowards hiding behind keyboards can have a devastating impact” and they are “just as happy hacking the NHS and nurseries as they are multibillion-pound companies”.As well as online criminals launching ransomware attacks to demand money from firms or individuals, the UK is also targeted by hostile states – either directly or through groups operating at arms-length from the authorities in Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang.The NCSC’s annual review said: “State actors continue to present a significant threat to UK and global cyber security, aided by an evolving cyber intrusion sector.“As threats intensified, our incident management team faced a record number of nationally significant incidents.”The report said:– China is a “highly sophisticated and capable threat actor, targeting a wide range of sectors and institutions across the globe, including the UK”.– Russia is a “capable and irresponsible threat actor in cyberspace”, while pro-Moscow “hacktivist” groups operating outside formal state control are seeking to target the UK, Europe, US, and other Nato countries in retaliation for western support for Ukraine and Israel.– Iran’s activity has largely been focused in the Middle East but the NCSC assesses it is “highly likely” that UK entities could be potential targets for Tehran-linked hackers, following a US warning that Iranian state-sponsored or affiliated cyber activity could threaten critical infrastructure.– North Korea’s “prolific and capable” hacking activity mainly seeks to raise revenue, to collect intelligence and to offset the impact of international sanctions, while undercover IT workers from Kim Jong Un’s country are “almost certainly” targeting UK firms by posing as third-country freelance staff.NCSC chief Richard Horne said: “We know that our adversaries are combining cyber means with physical methods in order to further their aims.“Just last month, agencies from 13 nations came together to warn that three technology companies based in China have conducted a malicious global cyber campaign targeting critical networks on behalf of their host nation.”As well as that warning in August this year, the NCSC and allies in September 2024 exposed a covert network operated by a China-linked company called Integrity Technology Group or Flax Typhoon, which had a botnet consisting of 260,000 compromised devices around the world.The NCSC’s experts are also worried about hostile states “pre-positioning” for attacks on infrastructure, including by embedding IT workers who could strike against targets at short notice.The NCSC’s report comes with the risk posed by China to the UK under intense political scrutiny following the collapse of an alleged spying case and with a ruling due on Beijing’s application to build a massive new embassy in the heart of London.The NCSC report warned that hackers – including those with links to Beijing – were using artificial intelligence (AI) to improve the potency of their attacks.“Actors linked to China, Russia, Iran and the DPRK are using large language models to evade detection, support reconnaissance, process exfiltrated data, access systems through social engineering, and support vulnerability research and exploit development,” the NCSC warned.In the year to the end of August, the NSCS provided support in 429 cases, of which 204 were deemed “nationally significant incidents” – an increase from 89 in the previous 12 months.Of those, 18 were categorised as “highly significant”, meaning they had a serious impact on government, essential services, the economy or a large proportion of the UK population. More

Rachel Reeves has been warned by some of the country’s leading experts that she has no choice but to raise major taxes and reform others in the upcoming Budget if she is to turn Britain’s “desperate” economic situation around. The chancellor is facing a black hole of up to £50bn and is widely expected to hike levies next month, but she has been warned she cannot afford to tinker at the margins “by picking from a Scrabble bag” of smaller tax increases. Leading tax expert Dan Neidle, the founder of Tax Policy Associates, said the “wise” way for Ms Reeves to increase taxes would be “raising one of the main taxes, possibly by expanding the base of VAT, which may or may not break a manifesto pledge”.He warned that the “less wise way to do it is by picking from a Scrabble bag of lots of little tax rises”. Economists have repeatedly warned Ms Reeves in recent months that a combination of Labour U-turns, higher borrowing and sluggish economic growth means she must raise taxes or tear up her flagship borrowing rules.But last month, she suffered another blow after the official Budget watchdog looked to downgrade a key economic performance indicator – a move that could also drive tax hikes. Mr Neidle also called for reform to the tax system to make it more pro-growth, warning the situation had become “quite desperate”, as he gave evidence to the Commons Treasury committee. Rachel Reeves faces tough decisions if she is to turn Britain’s economic fortunes around More

The government’s treatment of trans people in the UK could breach the European Convention on Human Rights, a human rights expert has warned.Michael O’Flaherty, commissioner for human rights for the Council of Europe, said new guidance in the wake of a Supreme Court ruling on trans people must not leave them in an “intermediate zone … as not quite one gender or the other”. In a letter to Sarah Owen, chair of parliament’s women and equalities committee, and David Alton, chair of the joint committee on human rights, Mr O’Flaherty said lawmakers in the UK have viewed “the human rights of different groups as a zero-sum game”.The watchdog also says a debate about trans rights should not detract from efforts to stop violence against women and girls More

Angry Boris Johnson has defended himself against claims that he was responsible for a big rise in immigration.The former prime minister denied he was to blame for what Nigel Farage has called a “Boriswave” of immigration while he was in Downing Street.Instead, Mr Johnson criticised the immigration record of fellow Conservative former PMs Rishi Sunak and David Cameron.Former prime minister Boris Johnson was responsible for a huge spike in migration More

MI5 has warned MPs that they are being targeted by China, Russia and Iran through espionage in a shock warning.In a caution posted by the government ahead of a Commons statement by security minister Dan Jarvis, intelligence chiefs issued new guidance to protect Britain’s democracy from foreign agents.The warning noted that elected representatives and those who work with them may be targeted for their access to information, their ability to shape policy or public opinion, or their relationships with others of interest. This includes not only classified material but also privileged or insider knowledge that foreign intelligence services find valuable. This could be through attempts to exploit overseas travel, online activity, and financial donations as routes to access and influence.MI5 director general, Sir Ken McCallum, said: “When foreign states steal vital UK information or manipulate our democratic processes, they don’t just damage our security in the short term, they erode the foundations of our sovereignty and ability to protect our citizens’ interests.“Everyone reading this guidance cares deeply about the role they play in UK democracy. Take action today to protect it – and yourself.”It comes as Commons speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle expressed his fury at the collapse of the China spy trial involving former parliamentary researchers.Sir Lindsay made a dramatic opening statement ahead of Mr Jarvis’s update to MPs, amid growing questions over whether the government effectively blocked crucial evidence being passed to prosecutors.The prosecution of Christopher Cash, 30, a former parliamentary researcher, and Christopher Berry, 33, a teacher, collapsed last month amid allegations from the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) that the government refused to provide the evidence required to go ahead with the trial.Sir Keir Starmer’s defence was that the previous Tory government under Rishi Sunak had not put the right laws in place for there to be a trial because China had not been properly designated as a national security threat. But the Conservatives have accused the government of blocking an MI5 file going to prosecutors.Commons speaker Lindsay Hoyle reads a statement on the China spy trial More

The Government risks losing support over its proposals for digital IDs, Labour MPs have said, as they raised concerns about the impact on civil liberties and the cost.Nadia Whittome, Richard Burgon, Charlotte Nichols and Stella Creasy all questioned how necessary the IDs were, and whether the Government could spend the money better.Technology Secretary Liz Kendall said the digital IDs would only be mandatory for employers to see on right-to-work checks, as the Government bids to clamp down on illegal working.However, Ms Kendall added that for those who wanted to, it could improve access to public services.Meanwhile, individuals would not face sanctions, only employers, and the police would never demand to see the IDs, Ms Kendall said.She said the Government had learned from countries such as Estonia and Denmark who had used the IDs already, and allowed people to “tell their story once” when dealing with public services.A consultation will begin before the end of the year, MPs heard, as they were told any system would be built “in house”.Ms Kendall said: “When you look across other countries and what they’re doing, it really has made government fit around people, rather than make people fit into government and its different services, and I think that’s a huge benefit.”However, Ms Whittome (Nottingham East) warned the Government risked “burning through political capital”.She said: “I don’t know how many doors I’ve knocked on in my 12 years as a Labour member, but I do know that not a single person has ever told me that what they really need to improve their lives, their community, this country is mandatory digital ID.“It won’t tackle irregular working, it undermines civil liberties, it’s divisive among the public and it won’t make a difference to people’s lives.“So I ask the Secretary of State, why are we doing it? Why are we burning political capital and public money on this, instead of focusing on the issues that are really are impacting our constituents.“I worry that this is yet another huge mistake.”Her party colleague Mr Burgon (Leeds East) said: “Given the serious threats that digital ID poses to civil liberties, our data security and a risk of data being handed over to US tech giants, I’m firmly opposed to digital ID.“However, isn’t it also a really big waste of money, and shouldn’t the Government be instead focusing on what is the number one priority for people across the country, which is tackling the cost-of-living crisis, and wouldn’t the money from this better be pushed into that, while safeguarding civil liberties?”Ms Nichols (Warrington North) said: “I’ve been contacted by a large volume of constituents in recent weeks whose healthy scepticism that digital ID will make a material difference in tackling illegal immigration, I share.”She asked for Ms Kendall to give concrete examples of how the IDs could be used by the public.Ms Kendall replied: “I do believe in future there are many really important voluntary ways in which people getting better access to services and support, and we’ll be consulting on that fully when we come forward with those detailed proposals.”Ms Kendall refused to give a figure for how much it cost, despite being pressed on it by Ms Creasy (Walthamstow).Ms Creasy said she had seen figures of it costing £1 billion to £2 billion to establish the scheme, then an ongoing £100 million a year to run it.She also said the cost of a data breach could amount to 1.1% of GDP.Ms Creasy said: “(Ms Kendall) said this would be free. Ultimately, the taxpayer will have to pay for it.”She added: “Could she give us, if not at least a ballpark figure for the capital and revenue costs she’s envisioning for what she’s set out?”Ms Kendall replied: “I think we also need to look at the potential benefits of this, in terms of savings from cracking down on fraud, from making services more effective and efficient, and clearly the eventual cost of this will depend on the design and build, which is what we’re consulting on.”The Conservatives claimed the scheme would “fundamentally shift the balance of power between citizen and state”.Shadow science, innovation and technology secretary Julia Lopez said: “(Sir Keir Starmer) knows it won’t stop the boats, and when Brits are forced to have ID as illegal migration continues unabated, it will simply confirm fears of a two-tier society, fuelling the division and conspiracy theories that he so arrogantly claims that he is the antidote to.”She continued: “This is not about Luddite versus modernisers. This is about the fact that Labour cannot resist its big fat socialist dreams – centralised databases, state mandation, big money, the exclusion of private sector expertise. Why create this honeypot for hackers?”Responding, Ms Kendall said: “Well, that is definitely the first time I’ve been called a ‘big fat socialist’.”Former defence minister Andrew Murrison said three million people had signed an online petition against the policy.Ms Kendall replied: “I think that trying to get Government services to talk to one another and work more effectively is what people want.” More