UK

If a general election were held today, Reform UK would be on course to win the most seats, but no party would be close to an overall majority, a new poll suggests.Nigel Farage’s party would win 180 seats, with the Tories and Labour on 165 seats each, according to the More in Common survey of 16,000 voters. Sir Keir Starmer’s party would achieve an even worse result than it sustained under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, losing 246 seats, the modelling claims. Surveys conducted years away from a general election are unlikely to represent anything close to its result, because there is no way of predicting what the most important issues will be come polling day. Reform currently has just four MPs, having already lost one of the five elected last year.But More in Common director Luke Tryl said the survey shows that “British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level”. Nigel Farage’s Reform would have the largest number of seats – but no majority, the poll says More

Reform UK’s by-election candidate supported means testing the winter fuel payment despite Nigel Farage describing the policy as “vindictive”, it has emerged. Sarah Pochin, who is standing to replace Mike Amesbury in Runcorn and Helsby, backed the principle of “making sure those that are in need get that payment… but that those that don’t need it don’t get it”. “We have so much else we need to spend our money on, like sorting out the adult social care issue,” Ms Pochin added in a newly resurfaced video from 2017 shared by the campaign group Reform UK Exposed. Nigel Farage with Sarah Pochin, Reform UK’s candidate for the Runcorn and Helsby by-election (PA) More

Nigel Farage and Reform UK have been proudly sitting on top of many of the polls for months since the general election on 4 July last year.The latest Techne UK tracker poll for The Independent revealed that they stand joint top with Labour on 24 per cent each, two points ahead of Kemi Badenoch’s Tories.But on 1 May Farage and co will have their first big electoral test to see whether the polls are genuine or whether when it comes to the actual ballot box voters are less inclined to put their cross by Reform.It is fair to say that May day is also a serious first test for Keir Starmer as prime minister and Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader, but Mr Farage more than any other political leader has his credibility riding on this set of elections.But while multiple victories will confirm Reform as a serious political threat to its rivals, victory will also bring serious challenges to Farage’s style of leadership and answer questions over whether his party can actually be one of government.Nigel Farage leads Reform UK More

Labour rebels are doubling down on their opposition to Sir Keir Starmer’s benefit cuts despite ministers planning to offer spending on child poverty as a “trade-off” to win their support. Dozens of Labour MPs are expected to abstain or vote against the £4.8bn welfare cuts, announced in Rachel Reeves’ spring statement, when they come before parliament. Ministers and party whips held talks with concerned Labour MPs last week, and opposition to the plans is reportedly hardening.Keir Starmer said the welfare system as it exists is economically and morally indefensible More

Ed Miliband has hit out at Nigel Farage, accusing him of spreading “nonsense and lies” by appearing to blame the government’s net zero policy for the crisis in the UK steel industry.In a strong criticism of his political rivals ahead of next month’s local elections, the energy secretary claimed that both Reform UK and the Conservatives were willing to spread falsehoods to further their “ideological agenda”.The senior Cabinet minister also warned that if an anti-net zero agenda was followed, it would not only risk “climate breakdown” but “forfeit the clean energy jobs of the future” in Britain.In an article for The Observer newspaper referring to price rises that began in 2022, the former Labour leader wrote: “Our exposure to fossil fuels meant that, as those markets went into meltdown and prices rocketed, family, business and public finances were devastated.“The cost of living impacts caused back then still stalk families today.”Ed Miliband has hit out at Nigel Farage, accusing him of spreading ‘nonsense and lies’ More

Donald Trump risks becoming a “cheerleader for Russia” in its war in Ukraine, the former defence secretary has warned after the US president confirmed he is prepared to walk away from peace talks. Ben Wallace, who was defence secretary between 2019 and 2023, said Mr Trump could become a “bystander” if he pulls out of the peace process. His comments come after Mr Trump doubled down on Washington’s threats to abandon talks aimed at brokering a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine if there are no signs of immediate progress.Ben Wallace said Donald Trump is not good at making deals More

More than 70 refugee charities and human rights organisations have called on Yvette Cooper to shut a “prison-like” former RAF base housing asylum seekers in Essex. Just weeks after the High Court found the Home Secretary acted unlawfully in housing three asylum seekers at the facility, the campaigners have piled pressure on Ms Cooper to shut the “unsafe and unsuitable” site for good.Sir Keir Starmer this month declined to set a date for when the former RAF station will be shuttered, despite pledging to close it during the general election. An aerial view of RAF Wethersfield in Essex (Joe Giddens/PA) More