Sir Keir Starmer’s first nine months in office have been far from easy. From the backlash against cuts to benefits, to mounting global instability and an impending trade war with the US, the prime minister has faced a number of challenges since he won the keys to 10 Downing Street. But 200 miles from Westminster, Runcorn and Helsby is where the prime minister faces his next major test. A safe Labour seat in an area that has been held by the party for more than 40 years, the optics of a loss in the forthcoming by-election would be disastrous for the government, not least because Reform UK is most likely to snatch the seat. By-elections are typically characterised by low voter turnout and an increase in tactical voting, and are notoriously difficult to predict. But current local polling puts Nigel Farage’s party neck and neck with Labour. Labour candidate Karen Shore meets a constituent in Runcorn“I don’t agree with everything Reform says, but it’s all about having a third option really. The Tories don’t know what they’re doing. Labour have now proven they don’t,” one voter in his twenties told The Independent. But the majority secured by Labour in July shouldn’t be underestimated. Mike Amesbury, who resigned after he was convicted of assault for punching a constituent, won by 15,000 votes after securing the backing of 52 per cent of the electorate. In second place, with 7,662 votes and just 18 per cent of the vote, was Reform UK. By-elections are traditionally fought on local issues such as roads, bins and leisure centres. But Labour’s more controversial economic policies have brought the impact of national politics to the forefront of people’s minds in Runcorn.From the decision to means-test winter fuel payments and hike national insurance, to last week’s benefits cuts, people feel let down by a government that promised change and they are fearful for their ability to pay bills and put food on the table. Andrew Gaskell, who voted Labour at the last election, is one of many Runcorn voters unsure if he will do the same again. “I’m disappointed,” he told The Independent. “I’m disappointed really with the chancellor. The way she’s tried to raise money, I don’t think she’s done it in the right way.” “I just think Labour has lost the plot,” said a second voter, who is considering voting for the Tories.Frodsham town centre in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency More