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Support trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorA bombshell exit poll has offered the first clue on how election night could unfold – and it looks like bad news for Rishi Sunak.A joint exit poll from the BBC, ITV and Sky News has predicted Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party will clinch a huge victory, predicting that Labour will win 410 seats, Tories 131, Lib Dems 61, Reform 13 and SNP 10.It is a stunning reversal in fortunes since the Tories won an 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson just under five years ago, in what was also Labour’s worst election result since 1935.At each of the past few elections, the exit poll has produced a very accurate projection of the actual result. At the last general election, in December 2019, the exit poll slightly overestimated the Conservatives’ win by three seats. It underestimated them by four seats in 2017, and by 15 seats in 2015. In 2005 and in 2010, the exit poll got the number of the leading party’s seats exactly right, first Labour and then the Conservatives.As counting begins at venues across the UK for all 650 seats, we want to know what you think. Do you agree with the exit polls? Or do you think there are still some shocks and surprises in store overnight? Share your election result predictions by adding them in the comments — we’ll highlight the most insightful ones as they come in.All you have to do is sign up and register your details — then you can take part in the discussion. You can also sign up by clicking ‘log in’ on the top right-hand corner of the screen.Make sure you adhere to our community guidelines, which can be found here. For a full guide on how to comment click here.Join the conversation with other Independent readers below. More

Support trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorA woman said to be affiliated with George Galloway’s Workers Party was allegedly assaulted outside a polling station in Rochdale.Greater Manchester Police said officers were called to reports of an assault on Victoria Street, in the town of Littleborough, just before 11.30am on Thursday as voters headed to cast their ballots in the general election.The force said in a statement: “A woman was assaulted by a male. No injuries were reported and no arrests have been made.”The Littleborough United Reformed Church, situated on Victoria Street, is being used as a polling station.Mr Galloway, the seven-time MP who is standing to retain the Rochdale seat he won in a February by-election, alleged: “Our female polling station attendant in Littleborough has just been brutally assaulted outside the polling station where no officer was in attendance.”The assault took place on Victoria Street, Greater Manchester Police said More

Sunak heads to polling station to cast vote in general electionSupport trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorMillions of people across the country are heading to polling stations to vote in a general election that could deliver a major shake-up of British politics and end 14 years of Conservative government. The prime minister was up early to cast his ballot alongside his wife Akshata Murty in his North Yorkshire constituency and Keir Starmer, who appeared all smiles, cast his ballot accompanied by his wife Victoria in London.Former Boris Johnson made an appearance in his constituency, where he urged supporters to vote against “nightmare” wokery and tax rises he claims would come with a future Labour government.Chancellor Jeremy Hunt pleaded with voters to re-elect him as he cast his ballot in Godalming and Ash, where he is fighting to defend his seat against the Lib Dems. A major poll for The Independent yesterday suggested Rishi Sunak would lead the Conservatives to the worst defeat in history with only 82 seats. If the forecast is accurate, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and defence secretary Grant Shapps are among the veteran Conservatives set to be ousted.Sir Keir could enter the doors of Number 10 triumphant, with an unprecedented 272-seat majority behind him, polls suggest.Show latest update 1720082779Pinned: How to vote in the General Election – From finding a polling station to filling out your ballotOpinion polling has consistently suggested the election will mark the end of 14 years of Conservative governance, with Labour flying ahead in projected voting intention. Some surveys predict smaller parties including the Lib Dems, Greens and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could pick up record numbers of seats.The true picture will remain unclear until Friday. Before that, the electorate must take to their local polling stations to cast their votes (if they have not done so already via a postal vote).To ensure everyone gets a fair and equal chance to participate in this democratic process, there are a number of rules in place, which must be followed in and around polling stations.Here’s everything you need to know about polling day:Salma Ouaguira4 July 2024 09:461720104219What is the exit poll and is it accurate?Exit polls take place at about 144 polling stations across the country, with tens of thousands of people asked to privately fill in a replica ballot as they leave, to get an indication of how they voted.Typically, fieldworkers of the polling company Ipsos Mori descend on the same polling stations at every election, these have been chosen to be demographically representative of the country, with rural and urban seats, and weighted slightly in favour of marginal areas.The accuracy of exit polls seems to have improved over time. In 1974, the first British exit poll predicted a Labour majority of 132, but the actual majority was three.But in each of the past few elections the exit poll, which is published shortly after 10pm, has produced a very accurate projection of the actual result.In 2015, the exit poll proved more accurate than opinion polls at the time, but it did not predict a Conservative majority.The accuracy of exit polls seems to have improved over time (Jane Barlow/PA) More

Sunak heads to polling station to cast vote in general electionSupport trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorThe UK heads to the polls on Thursday to cast their votes in a general election to set the country’s political trajectory over the next five years.While populist parties are enjoying success on mainland Europe, victory looks likely to go to the centre-left Labour Party, according to opinion polls during the campaign.Under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, candidates who secure the most votes in each of the 650 races for a parliamentary seat automatically enter the House of Commons. The party which wins in a majority of constituencies secures the right to form a government.Following 14 years of Conservative rule, marked by austerity, Brexit, the Covid pandemic and an inflationary crisis, Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has retained a commanding lead in polling over the course of the six-week campaign.Rishi Sunak is the third Tory leader since Britain’s last general election in 2019, having been installed by the party after the implosion of his predecessor Liz Truss’s premiership, who herself had taken over from Boris Johnson after he was ousted by MPs.Mr Sunak is battling to avoid a historic defeat, pre-election polls suggest, as he faces the fresh challenge of the ascendant hard-right Reform UK party, led by Brexit architect and former Ukip leader Nigel Farage.Show latest update 1720082779Pinned: How to vote in the General Election – From finding a polling station to filling out your ballotOpinion polling has consistently suggested the election will mark the end of 14 years of Conservative governance, with Labour flying ahead in projected voting intention. Some surveys predict smaller parties including the Lib Dems, Greens and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could pick up record numbers of seats.The true picture will remain unclear until Friday. Before that, the electorate must take to their local polling stations to cast their votes (if they have not done so already via a postal vote).To ensure everyone gets a fair and equal chance to participate in this democratic process, there are a number of rules in place, which must be followed in and around polling stations.Here’s everything you need to know about polling day:Salma Ouaguira4 July 2024 09:461720104219What is the exit poll and is it accurate?Exit polls take place at about 144 polling stations across the country, with tens of thousands of people asked to privately fill in a replica ballot as they leave, to get an indication of how they voted.Typically, fieldworkers of the polling company Ipsos Mori descend on the same polling stations at every election, these have been chosen to be demographically representative of the country, with rural and urban seats, and weighted slightly in favour of marginal areas.The accuracy of exit polls seems to have improved over time. In 1974, the first British exit poll predicted a Labour majority of 132, but the actual majority was three.But in each of the past few elections the exit poll, which is published shortly after 10pm, has produced a very accurate projection of the actual result.In 2015, the exit poll proved more accurate than opinion polls at the time, but it did not predict a Conservative majority.The accuracy of exit polls seems to have improved over time (Jane Barlow/PA) More

Support trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorNo sitting prime minister has ever failed to win their seat at a general election – but the opinion polls this time around raise the question of what would happen if Rishi Sunak loses in Richmond.The constituency could be close, and a survey by Savanta has suggested that the Tory PM is on course to see the 27,000-strong majority in his North Yorkshire constituency overturned.A report claimed on Wednesday that the prime minister had confided to members of his inner circle that he was fearful of losing his seat, warning confidants that he believed the race in Richmond and Northallerton was too close to call.Follow our blog for the latest general election updatesCould Sunak remain PM even if he loses his seat?In the event of such an outcome being declared in the small hours of Friday, it is highly unlikely that Mr Sunak would stand down as prime minister prior to the final national election result being called later that day.According to the Institute for Government (IfG), precedent suggests that a prime minister should be an MP – but there is no suggestion that they must immediately resign if they lose their seat. Rishi Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty visit their polling station on Thursday More

Support trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorA number of top Tory ministers are set to lose their seats in the upcoming general election as the Conservative’s faltering campaign grinds on, according to a new shock poll published on Wednesday.In devastating news for prime minister Rishi Sunak, YouGov’s final poll before voting began on Thursday predicted that 14 Tory “big beasts” were set to lose their seats to Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.The Conservatives would drop to just 108 seats, losing 257 of the seats they won in 2019, according to YouGov’s projection on Wednesday. Labour would win a huge majority of 425 seats, up by 223.Follow live updates on the general election hereAmong those set to be ousted are Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Mel Stride, Alex Chalk, Mark Harper, Grant Shapps and Gillian Keegan.Separately, Mr Sunak is rumoured to have confided to members of his inner circle that he is fearful of losing his Yorkshire constituency at the general election.Here, The Independent takes a closer look at the prominent Tory candidates deemed by YouGov to be at risk of losing their seats.Jeremy HuntChancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is set to lose his seat under a new prediction by polling company YouGov More

Support trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorIf the opinion polls are correct and Labour storms to power, Sir Keir Starmer will have no time to celebrate his victory. The first few days and weeks as prime minister will be a whirlwind that would make the difficult job as leader of the opposition look easy with hindsight.The incoming prime minister’s in tray will be more daunting than usual because of a rotten economic inheritance – in sharp contrast to 1997, when Tony Blair took over with the economy growing, which eventually allowed him to boost spending on public services.Sir Keir’s first big task, if elected, will be to appoint his cabinet and junior ministers. Most of the top jobs are expected to be filled by those who held them in opposition, but there could be some tweaks. One headache: the number of ministers who sit in the Commons is limited to 95 but 109 Labour MPs were on the front bench in the last parliament. When the Lords is included, Labour had more opposition frontbenchers (146) than are paid ministerial posts (109). Would Sir Keir scale back his team and ask many of them to forsake their ministerial salary? Keir Starmer’a first few days and weeks as prime minister will be a whirlwind More

Support trulyindependent journalismFind out moreCloseOur mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.Louise ThomasEditorWatch a live view of 10 Downing Street as Britons vote in the general election on Thursday 4 July.Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer have already cast their ballots as they vie to win the election after weeks of campaigning.Polling stations across the UK opened at 7am, giving millions of voters the chance to decide if the Tory incumbent remains in the top job or the Labour leader enters Downing Street.Opinion polls suggest Labour is on course to secure a big majority in the House of Commons and form a new government.Mr Sunak, who has insisted the results are not a foregone conclusion despite dire poll ratings for his party, voted in his Richmond constituency.He waved at reporters as he and his wife Akshata Murty arrived hand-in-hand at the Kirby Sigston Village Hall, as he hopes to be returned to parliament as the MP for Richmond and Northallerton.Sir Keir was also joined by his wife, Victoria, as he visited a polling station in his Holborn and St Pancras constituency.The Labour leader told his final rally in Redditch, Worcestershire, on Wednesday night to “imagine a Britain moving forward together with a Labour government”. More