UK

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA leading pollster has warned that defeat for the Tories in the general election next week is now unavoidable and the only question remaining is how much Rishi Sunak’s party loses by.The assessment by Techne UK’s chief executive Michela Morizzo – Italy’s equivalent of Professor Sir John Curtice – comes as her company’s tracker poll for The Independent shows that Labour goo into the final seven-day stretch with a 22 point lead over the Tories.Labour are on 41 per cent (down one) with the Tories languishing on 19 per cent for a third week in a row and Reform UK just two points behind still on 17 per cent. The Lib Dems are on 12 per cent and Greens on 5 per cent meaning that the five main parties almost completely unchanged from last week.It means that the final onslaught unleashed by Rishi Sunak in the head-to-head debate on Wednesday attacking Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer on tax and immigration had almost no impact,, the same as most of his tactics throughout a problematic campaign.Instead, the Tories continue to be dogged by their own self inflicted wounds particularly the gambling scandal and before that Mr Sunak leaving the D-Day commemorations early.Ms Morizzo now believes that there is nothing he can do to turn things around in such a small space of time.She told The Independent: “With less than one full week before the British electorate go to the general election ballot boxes our regular tracker poll of Westminster voting intentions confirms what we have known now for sometime. There continues to be no closing of any gap between Labour and Conservatives continuing at a 22 per cent Labour lead. “If this wasn’t bad enough though for the Conservatives the steady rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK throughout the campaign to its position now 17 percent points of national vote – a rise of four to five polling points across the last four weeks will further squeeze and damage the Conservatives already faltering chances. Rishi Sunak has been mentioned in barely 1% of the Conservatives’ online adverts (Phil Noble/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailPresident Joe Biden has faced calls to stand down by the former UK ambassador to the US after a “historically bad performance” in his TV debate with Donald Trump.Mr Biden and former US president Trump went head to head for the first debate of the 2024 presidential election on Thursday night.The current president’s performance added to concerns about his age and mental fitness as he struggled with his lines, mumbled and, at times, appeared confused.During one particularly excruciating moment he lost his train of thought while discussing healthcare, before pausing, and saying, “We finally beat Medicare”. Mr Trump responded: “He did beat Medicare. Beat it to death.”At another point when Mr Biden trailed off while talking about immigration, Mr Trump responded: “I don’t know if he knows what he said, either.”Lord Kim Darroch, who served as British ambassador to the United States between January 2016 and December 2019, urged Mr Biden to stand down. He said on Radio 4’s Today programme: “Joe Biden should stand aside. This was a historically bad performance. He was inaudible, incoherent and lost his train of thought several times. “Some of his answers simply made no sense. The one “we have beaten Medicaid” will be repeated a thousand times between now and the election. He should stand down – it’s very hard to see him winning now.”Lord Darroch was forced to quit his stateside role in July 2019 – before Boris Johnson took the reins as Prime Minister – after frank diplomatic cables referring to Donald Trump were leaked.Lord Kim Darroch More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Britain’s upcoming general election is widely expected to lead to a change of government for the first time in 14 years. Many analysts believe it will be one of the country’s most consequential elections since the end of World War II.Ahead of the July 4 vote, The Associated Press takes a look back at other landmark elections since the war.___The last time a U.K. national election took place in July was in 1945, when Winston Churchill’s Conservative Party suffered one of its biggest-ever defeats shortly after the Allies’ victory over Nazi Germany.That result may appear surprising to many in 2024, given the reverence with which Churchill is still viewed both in the U.K. and abroad.However, during the war years, Churchill had been governing in a coalition with other parties, notably Labour, whose leader Clement Attlee acted as his deputy and others held important portfolios. The war effort required a high degree of state-run planning, and egalitarian — even socialist — feelings flourished.The election on July 5, 1945 was the first to be contested for a decade because of WWII, and it showed how much Britain had changed since the Great Depression in the early 1930s.With Churchill still largely in wartime mode as Japan had yet to be defeated and lukewarm in his support of a wider social safety net, Labour fought the election on domestic issues, campaigning for housing for all, full employment and state intervention in the economy.The results of the election were announced three weeks later on July 26, after giving time for forces abroad to vote. Labour had won a landslide victory, securing 48% of the vote and its biggest ever majority in the House of Commons.Attlee’s government, which lasted until 1951, is one of the most transformative in the history of Britain and remains the standard by which all subsequent Labour administrations are judged. From the creation of the National Health Service in 1948 to the huge expansion of the welfare state and the nationalization of an array of industries, Attlee’s administration left its mark for decades to come. Many of its accomplishments remain in place. Despite its many problems, the NHS remains the most revered institution in British life. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSir Keir Starmer will reportedly delay the recognition of the Palestinian state if Labour forms the next government, over concerns it could jeopardise Britain’s relationship with the United States.The Labour leader has pledged to recognise Palestinian statehood and said it would be part of any Middle East peace accord with Israel.Sir Keir said: “That needs to be part of the process, it’s very important we have a viable Palestinian state alongside a safe and secure Israel.”He is under pressure from the left of the party to follow through on the Labour manifesto promise, but members of his inner circle have concerns this could isolate him from major allies such as the US at the start of his premiership, The Times reports.A source close to Sir Keir told the newspaper that British recognition of Palestine was a “process” and would have the most impact if done in “coordination with allies”. They denied the US would influence the timing of an announcement.Last month the Labour leader downplayed suggestions the recognition of the Palestinian state by the British would happen anytime soon.“It has got to be at the right time in the process because we need a viable Palestinian state alongside a safe and secure Israel,” he said. “We don’t have either of those at the moment, and therefore it has got to be at the point of the process where we could see both of those outcomes.”A number of countries, such as Ireland, Spain and Norway have moved to recognise Palestinian statehood, following the October 7 terror attacks by Hamas and the war in Gaza, which has claimed more than 37,000 lives.Sir Keir Starmer’s position on the conflict has previously caused unease among some in his party, with the leader facing criticism for not calling for an immediate ceasefire sooner.In November last year, a host of Sir Keir’s shadow ministers broke ranks to call for an immediate ceasefire, including Naz Shah, Paul Barker and Afzal Khan.A total of 10 shadow ministers and parliamentary aides rebelled, with some 56 Labour members defying a three-line whip and backing an amendment to the King’s Speech.The party faced setbacks in the local elections in some previously safe areas, particularly those with large Muslim populations. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA Reform UK activist described prime minister Rishi Sunak as a “f****** p***” while campaigning for the party’s leader Nigel Farage.Party activist Andrew Parker was caught using the racial slur while canvassing in Clacton, Essex, where Mr Farage is standing as an MP in the general election.Mr Farage told Channel 4 News that he was “dismayed” and he and some other objectionable candidates “will no longer be with the campaign”.It comes after Reform UK dropped its candidate in Basingstoke, Hampshire, after it was revealed he was previously a member of the British National Party.Mr Parker, who was filmed as part of an undercover investigation by Channel 4 News, said: “I’ve always been a Tory voter. But what annoys me is that f****** p*** we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F****** useless”.Mr Farage said he was “dismayed” by the comments and claimed the activist had been removed from his party’s local campaign.Nigel Farage said he was ‘dismayed’ by the racist comments and the activist had been removed from his local campaign More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailKeir Starmer has given the most revealing interview yet on his fears for his family, his regrets, and the inner anger that drives him to want to change the country.The Labour leader has often been accused of being too robotic or lacking passion and personality.But with Starmer on the cusp of entering No 10, he has given an emotional interview to Geordie Greig, editor-in-chief of The Independent, where tears welled up in his eyes as he expressed his innermost feelings about his life and his family. He addressed:How his wife Victoria is his “rock”How his teenage children fear their lives will dramatically change as he prepares to move the family into Downing Street – and how they “take the p***” out of their fatherHow he decided not to take advice from the Blairs about life in No 10His regrets at never telling his late father he loved himHow his mother’s determination to overcome her lifelong ill health fuels his own drive to bring changeHow he took on homophobic thugs who beat up a gay friend and was beaten up when he intervenedThe Labour leader admitted his greatest fear about becoming prime minister is its impact on his children, as he confirmed that, if he wins on 4 July, he will be moving his family into Downing Street.“It’s been a cause of concern for me about the impact on the kids in particular. I’m not going to pretend that they are not worried about this, because they are. Our girl is 13 and a half, our boy 15, nearly 16. It is very impactful. They’re just sort of exploring their independence, and suddenly, if we get over the line, that is going to be hard.”Political editor David Maddox and editor-in-chief Geordie Greig interview Keir Starmer More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailDavid Cameron has been caught on video speaking to a Russian impostor pretending to be a former Ukrainian president – but he’s not the only politician to be caught out by pranksters. The Foreign Office said the perpetrators behind the call are “clearly Russian”, adding that “disinformation is a tactic straight from the Kremlin playbook”.He now joins a string of politicians, world leaders and celebrities to be duped by impersonators and pranksters. The Russian prankster duo Vladimir Kuznetsov and Alexei Stolyarov are among the most prominent tricksters, with a modus operandi that involves them masquerading as leaders or senior officials.Here, The Independent has put together a list of the politicians that have been hoaxed by impersonators and pranksters. Suella Braverman pranked into collecting ‘D*** of the year’ awardSuella Braverman awarded ‘D*** Of The Year’ in The Last Leg prankFormer home secretary Suella Braverman was duped into accepting a comedy show’s “D*** of the Year” award while launching a small boat in her constituency.Pranksters invited the Tory MP to officially launch “Fareham Fishing” – a bogus angling company – as part of a segment for Channel 4’s Last Leg programme.Ms Braverman, unaware, accepted the invitation from YouTube pranksters Josh Pieters and Archie Manners.As she cuts a red ribbon with her head turned, the two pranksters unveil a sign saying, ‘The Last Leg’s D*** of the Year 2023, Suella Braverman.’Nigel Farage tricked into saying pro-IRA ‘up the RA’Nigel Farage tricked into saying ‘up the RA’ on CameoNigel Farage was tricked into reading a message supporting the IRA by tricksters who targeted him on the video message site Cameo.The politician read out a birthday message and is seen raising his drink and saying ‘up the RA’ in a clip on the video-sharing platform.He was then confronted by Irish news presenter Claire Byrne on the comments. Ms Bryne shared the clip on her RTE One show, and explained: “I want people to see just how much you know about the history and culture of this island.”After it played she said: “Up the RA, Nigel?“I know you said sorry and I know you got 87 quid, that’s entirely within your rights to do that – but come on.“Don’t try and lecture the Irish people on culture and history and the precarious nature of peace on this island, you haven’t got a clue.”Kwasi Kwarteng and Matt Hancock offered to help fake Korean firm Led By Donkeys undercover investigation reveals MPs charge 10k a day for consultancyFormer chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng offered to facilitate setting up a meeting between a fake foreign firm and former prime minister Boris Johnson during a sting interview.Mr Kwarteng was caught up in a hoax organised by campaign group Led By Donkeys in which he was approached about providing political advice to a bogus company in South Korea.Mr Kwarteng indicated he would take on external consultancy work for the firm for a rate of £10,000 per day.Former health secretary Matt Hancock, in a separate interview, said his daily rate was the same five-figure sum.The sting by anti-Brexit group Led By Donkeys saw it create a company called Hanseong Consulting, including setting up a website which contained made-up testimonials and paying for a so-called “fake virtual office” in the South Korean capital Seoul.Nigel Farage falls for Brexit prank call live on LBCCaller pranks Nigel Farrage on LBCNigel Farage was pranked on live radio when a caller said he changed his mind about being a Remainer when he was “kicked in the head by a horse”.Calling into Mr Farage’s LBC show the man, who gave his name as Mark, started by thanking Mr Farage for his political work in recent times.“I’m immensely grateful to you for everything you’ve done in British politics over the last few years,” Mark told Mr Farage, before explaining how he had switched sides on the Brexit debate.As Mr Farage nodded along, Mark told him: “Then something monumental happened.”Mr Farage, then asked: “And what was that monumental thing, Mark?”To which he responded: “I was kicked in the head by a horse.”Sensing the answer was not wholly honest, Mr Farage said: “Right, very good, okay, fine. Thank you, Mark, we’re going to move on.”Boris Johnson tricked into 18-minute call with man pretending to be Armenian PMBoris Johnson gets duped by Russian prankstersBoris Johnson was duped into discussing the UK’s relationship with Russia with hoax callers pretending to be the Armenian prime minister.An audio clip posted online by Russian pranksters, Lexus and Vovan, appeared to show the then-foreign secretary talking about the UK’s dealings with Vladimir Putin and the poisoning of the Skripals with the pair, who were pretending to be Nikol Pashinyan, the then recently elected political leader.The Foreign Office said Mr Johnson had ended the call when he realised it was a hoax and issued a stern statement condemning the “childish actions” of the duo. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email An Albanian prison cell wouldn’t rank high among choice spots to run a successful campaign for election to the European Parliament.Fredis Beleris, a member of Albania’s ethnic Greek minority, had no choice. Last year he was elected mayor of a town in southern Albania — a candidate to join the European Union — but lost his office and is serving a two-year sentence for vote-buying in that election.The case soured relations between the two Balkan neighbors and led to the dual Greek-Albanian citizen’s election on June 9 to represent EU member Greece in the European Parliament. He ran on the ticket of Greece’s governing center-right party.“I know (my election) will help put a spotlight on a major problem Albania faces, which is the rule of law,” Beleris told The Associated Press in a phone interview Thursday from prison.“Here, the judiciary is the long arm of politics,” he added. “I think these problems must be brought to the fore — lack of respect for the Greek ethnic minority’s rights, such as the right to property … and to be governed by the people it elects.”Beleris’ election isn’t unique. An Italian leftwing activist held in pretrial detention in EU member Hungary was released after her election to the European Parliament on an Italian party’s ballot. Members of the legislature enjoy substantial legal immunity from prosecution within the 27-state EU, even if the allegations relate to crimes committed prior to their election. But Albania is not an EU member, and unlike Beleris, the new Italian MEP had not been convicted in court. Athens described Beleris’ detention and trial as politically motivated and implied Albania’s prospects of joining the EU would suffer. The case is complicated by fractious Balkan politics, minority rights and property disputes on a prime coastal stretch of what’s marketed as the Albanian Riviera, the top tourist destination in the country.Some 10 million tourists visited the small country last year, contributing about a fifth of the economy.“I had no intention of entering politics in Greece, it was because of the need to highlight this huge problem,” Beleris said. “Anybody who knows me knows for sure that I would prefer to have been mayor.”Beleris, 51, was arrested two days before the May 14, 2023 municipal elections in Himare, on the Albanian Riviera, 220 kilometers (140 miles) southwest of the capital Tirana. He was charged with offering some 40,000 Albanian leks (360 euros; $390) to buy eight votes.He won with a 19-vote lead, backed by the ethnic Greek minority party and others opposing Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama’s governing Socialists. But he never took office, being detained until his court conviction in March. An appeals court upheld the ruling Tuesday.Beleris denies the charges, claiming that Prime Minister Rama directly targeted him to keep control of Himare, and that judges ignored evidence in his favor.Albanian officials strongly reject his claims, citing the independence of the judiciary.Judicial corruption has long plagued post-communist Albania. The system recently underwent deep reforms, following EU and U.S. pressure to root out bribery and ensure judges are independent from politics.Beleris said he believes that at the heart of his case are “huge financial interests as far as tourist development is concerned.”“But it’s also that the Albanian prime minister doesn’t want the local (ethnic) Greek population to share in that prosperity,” he said. “That’s a direct breach of our human and minority rights.”Relations between Greece and Albania have been at times uneasy, largely over minority rights and the sizeable Albanian migrant community in Greece.Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has strongly backed Beleris, giving him a place on his New Democracy party’s ticket. Beleris won some 235,000 votes, coming in fourth among the seven MEPs the party elected.Mitsotakis’ move came as ND was struggling to staunch a leak of votes from its traditional conservative base towards small far-right parties. Greece is also at loggerheads with another small Balkan neighbor and EU hopeful, North Macedonia, and has suggested that that country’s efforts to join the bloc could also suffer in consequence.So far, the EU Commission has treated the Beleris matter as a bilateral dispute. EU membership talks with Albania and North Macedonia started in 2022 and are expected to last for years.“I think Albania must join the European Union sooner or later, but … with the rules and the rule of law that befit a European country,” Beleris said.___Llazar Semini in Tirana, Albania, contributed. More