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    Who is still voting Conservative? How Brexit and age define the Tory party faithful

    Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insightThe sheer scale of the collapse in support for Tories in the opinion polls begs a question as the election approaches: Who are the party faithful, still willing to back Rishi Sunak?Recent polls have the Conservatives’ voting intention at about 19 per cent – less than half the 43.6 per cent vote share of 2019.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called an election for 4 July after months of speculation about an autumn date. Since then, the campaign has been plagued by scandals, from the PM leaving D-Day early to alleged betting by politicians and campaign officials.With a resurgent Reform UK eating into the vote share under Nigel Farage, the Conservatives look all but defeated as the race enters its final week.Who is still voting Tory?While the odds are strongly against a general election victory, one in five voters are still planning to back the Conservatives at the polls.The current average Tory voter is aged 62, voted for Brexit, and has voted Conservative in previous elections. Polling from More In Common shows that Tory voters are slightly more likely to be white, and more than half are comfortable financially.Ed Hodgson, research manager at More In Common, said many Tory voters are fearful about Labour’s approach to the economy. “Most current Conservative voters have real concerns about the idea of a Labour government,” he said. “Many of them are instinctively cautious about Labour. They are receptive to arguments that Labour will increase taxes, mishandle the economy, or that a ‘supermajority’ will create an unopposed Labour government.” He said those issues are raised in focus groups, where Tory supporters frequently raise the famous “I’m afraid there is no money” note, left by Labour’s Liam Byrne, chief secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown, in 2010 for the incoming coalition government.Polling shows the Tories have no particular advantage among voters aged 55-64, of whom 18 per cent say they are voting for the party – just below the national average.The strongest group of Tory supporters by far remains the over-65s, a third of whom say they will vote blue next week. This jumps to 40 per cent when looking at the over-70s.Around 1.3 million people who voted Conservative in 2019 have since died – nearly 10 per cent of supporters. With the majority of Tory support clustered in the older age brackets, the Tories may have a serious demographic problem, not just in this election but also in the next.Despite apocalyptic projections of a Labour landslide from top pollsters, the Tories are still forecast to win with a margin of over 5 per cent in 106 constituencies, according to More In Common’s June MRP. These include large margins in constituencies such as Sevenoaks, Maldon, and Hinckley and Bosworth.In national voting intention polls, those in the North East of England are slightly more likely to vote Conservative, at 23 per cent compared to the national average of 19 per cent, as are those in the South East, with 21 per cent.While there has historically been a gender gap among Tory voters, with more men voting Conservative (47 per cent) in the 2019 election compared to 42 per cent of women, that gap is now less wide.Support among men is currently at 20 per cent, compared to 18 per cent among women.In fact, the real right-wing gender gap exists among Reform supporters.  A much higher proportion of men (16 per cent) are turning to the more right-wing party, compared to the proportion of women (10 per cent).Mr Hodgson said current Conservative voters are more positive about Sunak than the rest of the country. “They think he did a good job as chancellor, getting us through the pandemic, and tend to blame recent issues with the government on the Conservative party not properly backing the prime minister,” he said. “The same cannot be said for their views about Nigel Farage, who Conservative voters understand the appeal of, but don’t like the tone in which he conducts his politics and have an instinctive distrust of.”Of Conservative voters in 2019, 23 per cent say they will go over to Reform UK, 13 per cent to Labour and 4 per cent to the Liberal Democrats. Half are staying loyal and the remainder are undecided.A separate poll by More In Common has shown that Brexit voters are split between the right-wing parties, with a third voting Tory and a third Reform.When it comes to top issues on the ballot, all voters rank the NHS and cost of living as a primary concern, but the average Conservative voter is much more preoccupied with immigration and twice as likely to see the war in Ukraine as a factor impacting their vote. More

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    Tory blame game already begins with a week to go before polling day

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe blame game has already begun within the Tories as the party prepares to face what could be the most catastrophic defeat in its history in just a week.With seven days to go, polls suggest that the Conservative Party is on the brink of a wipeout with a strong possibility it will get less than 100 MPs elected.While fingers have been pointed by different factions behind the scenes for months even before the election, senior figures are now breaking ranks to give their verdicts even before most voters have cast their votes.First out of the traps was former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries who has told The Independent that she blames Michael Gove for a malaise that has set in over the last 14 years and is demanding he does not get a seat in the Lords – just as she was denied one.Gove has been blamed by Dorries More

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    Sunak accused of ‘desperate’ tactics with ‘don’t surrender to Labour’ poster of child with hands up

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has been branded “desperate” after the Conservatives released their latest shock election poster. The prime minister highlighted the attack advert, which depicts three people, including a child, with their hands in the air as if at gunpoint and urges voters not to “surrender” to Labour.The message is one the Prime Minister repeated more than a dozen times during his final head-to-head TV debate with Sir Keir Starmer on Wednesday.The Labour leader said during a campaign visit to Staffordshire that he was “surprised” by the use of the image.”This is really desperate stuff and I’m surprised by it,” he said. “I think it underlines the difference between the two campaigns now.”Others also attacked the poster.Brendan Cox, who was married to murdered MP Jo Cox, tweeted: “Labour are going to gun down your family. Don’t pretend you weren’t warned… Er…”The Tory leader defended the imagery during his on trip to Derbyshire, saying: “This is an incredibly important election, and there’s an important choice for people. And I don’t want people to sleepwalk into something.”He said a Labour government “would be very damaging for our country.”And he again conceded that the public is “frustrated with me and our party, but this is not a by-election. This is a choice about our future, and that choice will have severe consequences for people’s financial security.”During the BBC debate Mr Sunak urged voters not to “surrender” to Labour’s tax, welfare and migration plans.Sunak has been branded ‘desperate’ More

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    The one mistake Rishi’s constituents cannot forgive

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailPolished boots clatter over the cobbles as a group of uniformed military officers emerge from a flag-raising ceremony onto Richmond’s bustling marketplace.Many stride away in search of lunch after an hour spent in Friary Gardens, where the war memorial stands for the fallen of this historic town in Rishi Sunak’s constituency on the edge of the Yorkshire Dales national park.Among those who step into the midday sunshine is 69-year-old Paul Betteridge, proudly wearing his campaign medals and a blazer bearing the emblem of his former regiment, Third Royal Tanks, to celebrate Armed Forces Day.Their motto – “Fear nought” – could, for more than a century, have applied to the Conservative Party in this safest of safe Tory seats. But this year, something feels different.Betteridge and his wife Beryl, also 69, shake their heads and laugh when asked how they rate Sunak’s chances of being returned as Richmond’s MP, let alone prime minister.Paul and Beryl Betteridge are not optimistic about Rishi Sunak’s chances: ‘It’s been a disastrous campaign, and the Conservatives needed a good one more than ever’ More

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    Sir Philip Davies latest Tory caught up in gambling row ‘after betting £8,000 against himself’

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAnother senior Tory has become embroiled in the election betting scandal after allegedly placing an £8,000 bet that he would lose his seat.Sir Philip Davies is accused of betting he would lose his Shipley seat in West Yorkshire at the upcoming election. “What’s it got to do with you whether I did or didn’t,” the Conservative candidate, defending a majority of 6,242, told The Sun, adding that the bet was “nobody’s business”.“I hope to win. I’m busting a gut to win. I expect to lose. In the 2005 election, I busted a gut to win. I expected to lose. I had a bet on myself to lose in the 2005 election, and my bet went down the pan,” Sir Philip told the newspaper.“And if anyone’s alleging I have done anything illegal, they’re very welcome to allege it, but I’m afraid I haven’t.”Tory MP Philip Davies denied ‘doing anything illegal’ More

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    Ex-Newcastle United owner and long-time Tory donor Sir John Hall dumps party for Nigel Farage’s Reform

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe former owner of Newcastle United and a long-time donor to the Conservatives Sir John Hall has endorsed Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.Sir John told ITV that the Tories “are not representing my views” and Reform will “fight for my English rights and customs”.He added that he “doesn’t join parties, but will donate to Reform”.Sir John, who helped fund Theresa May’s disastrous 2017 election, has given more than £500,000 to the Conservatives. But he said he was a “disillusioned Conservative,” adding: “I just feel in these latter years, they’ve let me down.”Sir John Hall More

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    Independent readers share their views on ‘statesmanlike’ Starmer and ‘obnoxious’ Sunak after BBC debate

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailIndependent readers are divided following another televised head-to-head between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer.We asked for your opinions following the final party leader clash on BBC, revealing mixed reactions from our community. Some viewers noted an improvement in how Sir Keir challenged Mr Sunak compared to the first debate, with one adding: “Starmer seems to be getting more statesmanlike over time.” But others found Sir Keir too polite and unable to land impactful blows. One reader noted: “Starmer is articulate, but just has not got the bruising instincts of real ‘Old’ Labour politicians.”On the other end of the spectrum, many readers criticised Mr Sunak’s approach as too aggressive, with one observing: “Rishi Sunak has continued his obnoxious and irritating debating style.”Once again, there were calls for better debate moderation, with some blaming the chair for not controlling interruptions.Overall, the clash was seen by many as lacking substantive discussion, reducing it to a spectacle of squabbling and point-scoring.Here’s what you had to say:‘Statesmanlike’Starmer seems to be getting more statesmanlike over time. I don’t think this type of debate is his natural habitat but he had Sunak on the ropes a couple of times. Obviously, Sunak wants the tax worry to lodge in voters’ brains as their pencils hover over Labour and I think he did a reasonably effective if slightly irritating job of getting that across.PaulWaulCaul‘Obnoxious and irritating’Rishi Sunak has continued his obnoxious and irritating debating style. You would think that all that time at private school would have taught him how to debate in a more dignified way. He is using this bolshy style to hide his poor track record on policies, leadership and Tory Party scandals (PPE, covid rule-breaking, unfinished inquiries, foreign interference etc etc)I wish the chair would have been more forthright in controlling the debate.Rachel92‘Mocking Starmer’I believe Rishi had won. Not due to good policy making or a clear set of plans, but because of his use of populism and sensationalism that brought him thunderous applause through his strong words. This was especially seen with mocking Starmer about the idea of working with the Taliban.Thecoldwarguy‘Lies’Sunak came across as rude and increasingly desperate. He thinks if you tell a lie often enough, the population will believe it. The problem he has is that he lies every time he moves his lips.Pearson‘I fear the worst with a Labour government’Sunak came out as a contender with real stuff. Sir Keir as usual is living in the past with a lot of waffle as the plan for the future. I fear the worst with a Labour government.Krispad‘A low bar’All Starmer needs to do in these debates is to not mess up or cause hugely negative headlines. That’s a low bar. He nearly tripped. I would say with doubt that Starmer won only because Sunak has no credibility on any one main topic, whereas Starmer has a little credibility still intact.ItReallyIsNot‘Bully who wants to score points’How did a forensic interviewer like Mishal Hussein fail to stop the constant tetchy and childish interruptions/ talking over Starmer by Sunak?Who will make a better PM? Sunak who shouts over Starmer’s contributions and tells lies: pensioners already pay tax on pensions, or ignores facts such as Tory councils going bust.OR Starmer who may not set the world alight but is measured, thoughtful and actually listens and tries to answer the questions when he is not being shouted over.Who would chair a cabinet meeting where all feel empowered to make contributions? StarmerWho would actually listen to voters rather than interrupt them? StarmerStarmer needed more powerful one-liners to stop himself being interrupted once it was clear that the moderator was not going to do it. He came over as a person who wants to unite the country.Sunak came over as an overexcited small-time playground bully who wants to score points.Lada‘Pantomime’Both lost badly. The pantomime can hardly be classified as a political debate, no real and urgent policies were just remotely mentioned. The UK electorate got the expected pub brawl and nothing else. Both dismal characters knows the UK must raise many billions just to stop the decline after +40 years of Thatcherite pawn, sale and plunder policies, topped with +14 years of needless Tory austerity and corruption. But none of them dare, and the UK electorate largely live in a fantasy world of convenient denial, bickering over platitudes and obvious ineptitude.Sir Keir and his new crew of former Tory sponsors will not go for vital reforms of the UK “democracy” and cannot/will not face reality. And the Sunak gang agree.old dane‘Poorly chaired’Poorly chaired debate by Mishal Hussain. Too much squabbling due to poorly chosen questions from the audience that Sunak answered unchecked by Hussain on the answers while Starmer fumbled. Dreadful. The real loser in this debate is the BBC.Kernow‘Mansplaining’Neither. A pair of men mansplaining and talking over each other-as if one-upmanship was the most important thing to get right. No mention of the Climate Crisis just, ‘He’s going to raise taxes’ ‘No! HE’S going raise taxes!’ on repeat. And both happy to demise and scapegoat vulnerable refugees for their own, political, point-scoring purposes. Depressing. To paraphrase the comments by one chap in the audience; ‘is this the best we’ve got? Carline Lucas for PM!, I say.LizzieM‘Grave mistake’The English electorate made a grave mistake in 2010, and doubled down on this in 2015. It’s not rocket science, but why would anyone trust the Tories with the NHS, unless of course, you didn’t care. Austerity – what were people thinking. Cameron and Osborne remain unrepentant, but come on, the English electorate bought this rubbish! And then, once again, the English electorate buy the multiple Brexit lies, which leads to Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Co. Oh my God, were these representative of the best of what England could offer?! Sunak debates as if Starmer is PM, I suppose it is worth a punt, for the English electorate have repeatedly bought this crap for 14 years. Starmer, like Brown, is a decent man, let’s hope he can begin (and I say begin) to reverse the damage brought about by 14 years of Tory misrule. Ultimately, it is those who voted Tory that bear responsibility. You believed the lies regarding austerity, taxes, Brexit, the NHS, education, etc. The list is endless.mpsurf‘Cheap shot’I felt that it was an extremely cheap shot to choose the awful question which accused both leaders of simply being mediocre. I thought this debased and trivialised the debate. It was pointless as there was no answer to make – no answer anyone could sensibly make. This lowering of debate to insult encourages a cynical, non-voting attitude amongst the viewing audience – which incidentally will only benefit one party. Finally I’m not sure voters can really simply blame their politicians for the state of the body politic, we must also take some responsibility. Perhaps politicians don’t always tell us the truth, because they know full well we never reward them for doing it.Elizabethz‘Empty promises’Felt like Sunak has at least some policies in place for illegal immigration and funding tax cuts rather than making empty promises like Labour. At the moment it looks like Labour is riding on anti-Tories sentiment rather than credibility of themselves and hence I understand the word ‘Surrender’ being used.I am more inclined towards Mr Sunak. Having shown what he can do in the last 18 months.Oracle‘Much better than last time’I think Starmer did much better in this debate than last time. I feel like Sunak’s adolescent, aggressive debate style gets under his skin (tbh I think it gets under everyone’s skin!) – and made him visibly angry at times. And I think he did better when he was fired up.This isn’t Starmer’s natural habitat but I feel he came across as serious and thoughtful – if still trying to stay on message a bit too much; while Sunak came across as smug and petulant. I’m a Labour supporter of course! But I was much happier after this debate than the first one…In all of these “debates”, Sunak has been allowed to constantly interrupt and shout over Starmer, and also peddle lies without being challenged. Not sure how that can be called winning.Kvasir‘Sunak will soon be history’Starmer appeared understandably nonplussed by the tetchy, obnoxious, lying Sunak. This wasn’t a debate but a sixth form diatribe from an overheated little squib that only had two or three insults rehearsed from some scribbled notes he no doubt thought were top dollar scathing insights but were just the last desperate clueless attempts to clawback something, anything, from the impending utter crushing defeat that was looming ever larger. Sunak will soon be history but, sadly, he will go on to be even more wealthy, secure in his self-belief, blaming everyone else for the disaster he left behind.JiminyCricket‘Starmer always comes off worse’Sunak has always been a terrier, baring his teeth and snapping ferociously to make up for a loss of superior arguments. If you go back to the debates held before the December 2019 GE when Johnson sent him out to face the cameras on behalf of the Tories, you’ll see that this is one of his strengths, honed by being schooled in this quick-fire exchange manner so popular in Britain’s public schools. Sunak will always deploy weapons which he believes will leave a mark, and the chief of these last night was scaremongering. It is more than a little ironic that arch-Brexiteer Sunak, who back in 2016 mercilessly attacked the Remain side for what was called Project Fear, used exactly the same tactics when confronting Starmer. These were reinforced through the highly emotive word “surrender”. However, Sunak did make a number of legitimate points amidst all the shouting. It is naive and disingenuous for Starmer to claim that he’ll be able to renegotiate the Brexit deal without offering something substantial in return. He’s ruled out freedom of movement, so he has virtually nothing he can offer the other side.In debating, Starmer always comes off worse for the simple reason that he cannot think on his feet. That’s not something that a barrister or a DPP is routinely required to do. Attempting to stay above the fray and appear prime ministerial in waiting has paid off for him with regard to the polls, but it doesn’t bode at all well for a role in government. Sunak was bad enough but I despair at the thought of Starmer in Downing Street: strategically shortsighted, deluded in his insistence that Labour will somehow be able to deliver growth, and without the force of character and rhetorical skills to persuade the British public of the need to endure yet more hardship.aavo80‘An insult to the British people’These so-called debates are a waste of time. With one week to go, if you have not already decided, then this debate will not alter that fact. From now until the election, the poles are not going to move that much.But the whole format of the debate was unbelievable and a total embarrassment. You have Sunak repeat proven lies like they are facts, shout over the chair and opposition, he looked like he was reading from notes provided. I found the whole debate to be unprofessional and an insult to the British people who wanted a clear discussion on the merits of both parties and policies, and not a p****** match.Both candidates and the BBC did not come over at all well.WhatsupSome of the comments have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.All you have to do is sign up, submit your question and register your details – then you can then take part in the discussion. You can also sign up by clicking ‘log in’ on the top right-hand corner of the screen.Make sure you adhere to our community guidelines, which can be found here. For a full guide on how to comment click here. More

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    Voices: Ask Plaid Cymru candidate Ian Johnson anything in exclusive question and answer session with The Independent

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Independent is giving readers the chance to chat directly with candidates from some of the major political parties in a special general election series of Ask Me Anything events.In this question and answer session, our community can chat exclusively with Ian Johnson, who is hoping to be elected MP in Vale of Glamorgan for Plaid Cymru.Former mayor of Barry, Mr Johnson has been a member of the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Barry Town Council since 2012, leading the Plaid Cymru group on the county council since 2017.Plaid Cymru’s manifesto calls for higher funding for public services and investment in Wales, funded by tax increases at a UK level, increased tax devolution to Wales, and reforms to Wales’s funding settlement. It also reasserts a long-term goal of Welsh independence,If you have a question about Plaid Cymru’s manifesto, pledges or policies submit it now, or when Ian Johnson joins you live at 12pm on Friday 28 June for the “Ask Me Anything” event.Register to submit your question in the comments box under this article.Scroll down or click here to leave your comment.If you’re not already a member, click “sign up” in the comments section to leave your question. For a full guide on how to comment click here.Don’t worry if you can’t see your question – they may be hidden until the Q&A starts. More