UK

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Conservatives are heading for electoral disaster and could win just 66 seats in parliament, a new mega-poll suggests.The result would be a Labour landslide, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party securing 476 MPs – a majority of 302 – once tactical voting has been taken into account.Among the big names who could lose their seats are the deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden, home secretary James Cleverly and defence secretary Grant Shapps.However, Rishi Sunak is due to hold on in Richmond in North Yorkshire, although with a massively reduced majority.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks to the media at the launch of the Conservative campaign bus at Redcar Racecourse More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailIt began as a whisper, in the nerdier corners of political social media. Now, as the election nears, the question isn’t quite a roar, but it’s being asked everywhere from national newspapers to the pages of The Spectator, the bible of the right: is Rishi Sunak facing a Canada 1993 moment?The similarities are enough to send shivers down the spines of Tory candidates – ruling Conservatives challenged at an election by a right-wing party called “Reform”. In Canada, the result was electoral oblivion: 167 parliamentary seats lost – including those of then-prime minister Kim Campbell – to leave the Progressive Conservative Canadian Party with just two seats, and the Liberal Party in power. With Sunak’s party already facing a 24-point deficit in the polls to Labour, is there a chance that British Conservatives could face a similar fate?The answer, it seems, is no – or at least, not unless things go catastrophically wrong for the Conservatives between now and 4 July.Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, told The Independent that, though they face a challenge from voters either switching to Reform UK or not turning out at all on polling day, things would have to get “signficantly worse” for the Tories to end up with a Canada-style wipeout.Labour would require a 33-point lead, which would leave the Conservatives with fewer than 10 seats, according to Mr Baxter.He said: “It’s amazing that we’re asking the question, seeing that the Conservatives won a thumping majority just five years ago. But five years is a very long time in politics.”Facing down Reform UKThe threat from the right is coming from Reform UK, led by Richard Tice and supported by Nigel Farage, though the former Ukip and Brexit Party leader is not running himself. They have zeroed in on high immigration as a key issue on which to challenge Mr Sunak.Currently Reform is polling at 12 per cent, nine points behind the Conservative Party. Although Reform is not predicted to win any seats, Mr Tice has vowed to stand a candidate in every constituency.The key concern to the Tories, however, is in marginal seats. In the most recent byelections, Reform received 13 per cent of the vote in Wellingborough and 10.4 per cent in Kingswood.In the Kingswood byelection, Labour beat the Conservatives with a majority of 2,501 – almost the exact number of votes Reform received (2,578).Chris Hopkins, of leading polling firm Savanta, added: “Reform UK here doesn’t even look likely to pick up one parliamentary seat in our upcoming election, let alone become the official opposition.“The main role of Reform UK in this general election isn’t going to be winning seats, but helping the Conservatives lose theirs.“There are lots of seats where the splintering of the right vote will make it much easier for Labour and the Liberal Democrats to pick up seats.”Currently Reform is polling at 12 per cent, nine points behind the Conservative Party More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNearly 450 MPs have had their personal information exposed on the dark web, according to new research. The study, conducted by Proton in partnership with Constella Intelligence, found over two thirds of MPs had been exposed by hacks or breaches of third party services they’ve signed up to using their parliamentary email. MPs affected include cabinet ministers, opposition front benchers, as well as those on committees that look after the UK’s cybersecurity.In total, MPs’ emails were exposed a total of 2,110 times on the dark web, with the most frequently targeted MP experiencing up to 30 breaches, the study found. Some 216 passwords associated with MPs’ breached accounts have also been exposed, and researchers said this could constitute a serious national security issue. If an MP reused one of these exposed passwords to protect their official email account, it could also be at risk.MPs’ online presence was also affected, with Instagram profiles leaked 16 times, LinkedIn profiles 117 times, Twitter handles 21 times and Facebook accounts 21 times.When Facebook accounts are compromised, hackers have access to personal data, including home address, mobile number, bank account details, and contacts. They can also access voice data and their photos. The study further found British MPs demonstrated worse account security than their European and French counterparts. Less than half of MEPs (44 per cent) had their personal information exposed on the dark web, and just 18 per cent of the French National Assembly and Senate. Criminals often carry out what is known as a “credential stuffing attack”. This means entering thousands of stolen passwords and email addresses across various platforms, exploiting the fact that people frequently reuse passwords. Eamonn Maguire, Head of Account Security at Proton, said: “In today’s digital landscape, robust cybersecurity practices are crucial, especially for those in positions of power. A single leaked password can lead to severe national security breaches, given the access that MPs possess. “Many people underestimate their vulnerability, but the reality is that everyone is a potential target. Vigilance is essential for anyone in the public eye to safeguard both personal and national security, and we call on the new government after the General Election to take cybersecurity seriously, and for all MPs to adopt better account security practices.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour has become embroiled in a fierce row this week as as party officials moved to bar several parliamentary candidates on the left of the party from standing at the upcoming general election.Long-standing MP Diane Abbott was readmitted into the party on Tuesday after a suspension that lasted over a year. Despite her future as a Labour MP being cast into doubt this week, it appears she may now stand for the party after leader Sir Keir Starmer said she was free to do so.The case has drawn strong criticism from local Labour members and anti-racism campaigners. It comes alongside the barring of Faiza Shaheen, former Labour candidate for Chingford and Woodford Green.Being only a few weeks away from the general election, it is Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) – and not local party members – that will select candidates for the upcoming election.Follow The Independent’s live coverage for the latest political updates ahead of the general electionFaiza Shaheen, Jeremy Corbyn, and Diane Abbott (L to R) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSir Patrick Vallance, whose face become synonymous with covid briefings during the lockdown, came out in support of Labour’s Great British Energy plan in the election campaign today.The former chief scientific officer’s backing was unveiled as Sir Keir Starmer revealed that the publicly owned company which he argues will bring down energy costs will be based in Scotland.But Sir Patrick is just the latest former senior Whitehall mandarin to support Labour in a move which has already angered the Tories.Patrick Vallance during a coronavirus press conference at Downing Street More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA Tory MP has become the 79th to quit ahead of the general election, despite having campaigned for re-election for a week.Aaron Bell said it was “with a heavy heart” that he was stepping down, raising questions about why he had been on the campaign trail since Rishi Sunak called the snap summer poll.Until as recently as Wednesday, the Newcastle-under-Lyme MP was telling constituents he was hoping to be re-elected.Former Conservative MP Aaron Bell has announced ‘with a very heavy heart’ that he will not be standing at the General Election (Yui Mok/PA) More

Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insightVoters back Michael Heseltine’s claim that the current general election risks being “one of the most dishonest” in history because the main parties will not discuss Britain’s relationship with the European Union.The We Think voter intention poll has revealed that almost six in 10 voters (58 per cent) think that Brexit and Britain’s relationship with the EU should be one of the main issues in the election.The survey of 1,242 voters commissioned by the pro-EU European Movement UK followed an intervention by the former deputy prime minister Lord Heseltine in The Independent this week where he warned no issue can be discussed without referring it to Brexit.The veteran Tory heavyweight said: “We are now at the start of what I foresee will be the most dishonest election of modern times.Michael Heseltine warns election campaign will be ‘dishonest’ More

Related: Keir Starmer denies Labour ‘left-wing cull’ after Abbott and Shaheen suspensionsSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSir Keir Starmer has said Diane Abbott is “free” to stand as a Labour candidate in the General Election, following growing concerns over a purge of the left.Labour is now facing anger from prominent Black personalities who have signed an open letter condemning the party’s “disgraceful” treatment of the Hackney North MP and warned of a losing loyal supporters.The controversy continues as Labour replaced pro-Palestinian Muslim candidate for Chingford and Woodford Green Faiza Shaheen with a member of the Jewish Labour Movement Shama Tatler. This came after much criticism by Muslim groups and the left of the party of Starmer’s position on Israel.Adding further fuel to the fire, Sir Keir leader admitted he would work with Donald Trump if he gets into the White House despite facing an “unprecedented” situation.He added that he “respects the decision of the court” that found Trump Donald Trump has been  guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records as part of a conspiracy to corrupt.Show latest update 1717159668Breaking: Starmer says Diane Abbott is free to run for LabourAfter days of intense speculation, Sir Keir Stamer has confirmed Diane Abbott is free to stand at the general election. He said: “Diane was elected in 1987. The first black woman MP. She has been a trailblazer. “She has carved a path for other people to come into politics and public life. The whip has obviously been restored to her now, and she is free to go forward as a Labour candidate.”Asked about whether he understands Ms Abbott’s intention to stand, he replied: “She’s free to go forward as a Labour candidate. The whip is back with her. It’s been restored. And of course you know she was a trailblazer for many, many years and has been a path for others to come into politics. “So, formally a matter for the NEC, I’ve not expressed a view up until now. She’s free to go forward as a Labour candidate.”( More