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Key takeaways from Rishi Sunak’s general election announcementSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Conservatives have hit their lowest vote share yet in a weekly tracker poll after voters apparently turned away from the party when Rishi Sunak called a snap election.According to Techne UK, the Tories now have the support of just 19 per cent of voters – the first time the weekly tracker has had the party below 20 points. It puts them 26 points behind Labour, whose leader Sir Keir Starmer has hailed the 4 July election as a chance to “turn the page”.Sir Keir accused the prime minister of never having believed the Rwanda deportation plan would work after Mr Sunak conceded that flights would not take off before the election.As the party leaders began their campaigns, Mr Sunak urged voters to back him over the government’s flagship immigration scheme.He admitted planes carrying asylum seekers to Kigali would take off after polling day, but vowed the preparation had already happened.Despite speculation about a Tory rebel effort to oust Mr Sunak and call off the election, one prominent critic said it was too late to get rid of the prime minister.Show latest update 1716488500’Bleak’ outlook for Tories as they hit new poll low after Sunak calls snap electionThe Tories have hit their lowest vote share yet in a weekly tracker poll after voters apparently turned away from the party after Rishi Sunak called a snap election.According to Techne UK, the Tories are now stuck on 19 per cent, the first time the company’s weekly tracker has had them below 20 points. It puts them 26 points behind Labour.Techne’s chief executive has warned of “a bleak result” for the Conservatives unless they can change the narrative in the next six weeks:Jane Dalton23 May 2024 19:211716516300Free event: Will the Brexit headache ever end?Join The Independent’s Chief Political Commentator John Rentoul as he discusses all things Brexit past, present and future with a panel of experts, including MP Stella Creasy, chair of the Labour Movement for Europe:Jane Dalton24 May 2024 03:051716512460Top Tories at risk of losing seats at electionFrom Johnny Mercer to Jacob Rees-Mogg, these MPs could face a battle to hang on to their seats:Jane Dalton24 May 2024 02:011716509040I had been set to launch bid to run as MP, says FarageNigel Farage has claimed he was preparing to launch a campaign next week to stand as an MP before the prime minister announced the general election date.Appearing on GB News as a guest during his typical show slot on Thursday, he said: “I have always said that there will be a moment when I throw my hat in the ring fully into British politics. I’ve also said aged 60, I’ve got one more card to play and it’s about when I play it.“I had, to be honest with you, put in place some preparations to launch next week.“I wonder whether the Conservative Party found out about it. I think the sense of panic that we saw yesterday, the badly prepared speech, might perhaps have prompted it a little bit.”Jane Dalton24 May 2024 01:041716507000Opinion: So much for Farage the British bulldog – he’d rather be Trump’s poodle Jane Dalton24 May 2024 00:301716505140Sunak’s election halts abortion decriminalisation as providers demand changeJane Dalton23 May 2024 23:591716503140Watch: Starmer says growing up working class inspires election fightKeir Starmer says growing up working class inspires election fightJane Dalton23 May 2024 23:251716501495Experts say Tory election victory would be ‘biggest turnaround in history’Leading pollsters Professor Sir John Curtice and Lord Robert Hayward have said that a party has never before come from so far behind in the polls to win a general election:Jane Dalton23 May 2024 22:581716499548Watch: Nigel Farage says Sunak acted over ‘fear’ of ReformNigel Farage says Rishi Sunak called snap election over ‘fear’ of ReformJane Dalton23 May 2024 22:251716498008Comment: So, after 14 years, what have the Conservatives ever really done for us?Salma Ouaguira23 May 2024 22:00 More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak suffered a catastrophic first day of campaigning after his decision to call a general election for 4 July.The prime minister began the day by infuriating Tory MPs as he was forced to admit deportation flights to Rwanda will not go ahead before the election, prompting senior figures to declare the policy “dead”.An exodus of Conservative MPs saw five more – including two ministers – declare they will not seek reelection, taking the total to 70.His problems were compounded when the first poll taken after the election announcement revealed support for the Tories has fallen even further, while Labour’s lead has widened. The Techne UK poll, shared with The Independent, put Labour up one on 45 per cent, and the Tories down two at 19 per cent – the first time they have been below 20 percent.Even more concerning will be the apparent rise in support for Reform UK on the right, up two to 14 per cent with the Lib Dems on 12 per cent and Greens on five per cent.Rishi Sunak arrives for a campaign event at Inverness airport More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Tories have hit their lowest vote share yet in a weekly tracker poll after voters apparently turned away from the party after Rishi Sunak called a snap election.According to Techne UK, the Tories are now stuck on a mere 19 percent, the first time the company’s weekly tracker has had them below 20 points.It puts them a huge 26 points behind Labour who are now on 45 percent.Techne chief executive Michela Morizzo has warned of “a bleak result” for the Conservatives unless they can change the narrative in the next six weeks before the election on 4 July.Rishi Sunak holds a Q&A with workers in Derbyshire on the first full day of the 2024 election campaign More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has lost his “crude” and “depraved” £1,000 bet with Piers Morgan after he conceded deportation flights to Rwanda would not happen before an election.The prime minister shook hands with the YouTuber on his show on the bet which was described as taking politics to “a new low”.But the morning after calling a snap contest on 4 July, the prime minister said asylum seekers will be deported to the east African nation only “if I am re-elected”.Piers Morgan has already goaded Mr Sunak asking him to make his donation payable to the British Red Cross.Mr Sunak accepted the bet offered by the TalkTV broadcaster that asylum seekers will be sent on one-way flights to Kigali before voters hit the polls in February.Rishi Sunak and Piers Morgan bet £1,000 on Rwanda flights leaving before next election. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe biggest question in UK politics was answered on Wednesday when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a general election will take place on 4 July.With just six weeks to go before voters take to the polls, the Conservative Party leader’s choice of date has sparked a flurry of further questions from Independent readers.Mr Sunak, outside the door of 10 Downing Street in the pouring rain, said: “Now is the moment for Britain to choose its future.” This came despite earlier indications that an election would be held in the autumn.Naturally, many have been wondering why the prime minister chose this moment to fire the starting gun for the race to Number 10. While others simply wanted to know where his umbrella was…Here are nine questions from Independent readers – and my answers from the “Ask Me Anything” event.Q: What is the biggest opinion poll lead prior to a general election that was subsequently overturned come election day?Mick O’HareA: The obvious answer is 2017, but then it was the government that was 20 points ahead of the opposition. That was overturned on polling day with the Tories narrowly deprived of a majority. I think the only time the opposition was ahead in the opinion polls at the start of the campaign and then lost was in 1992, but Labour was only 1 or 2 points ahead, before losing by 8 points.Q: Why doesn’t he own a brolly?Charlie BeckettA: Rishi Sunak partly answered that in interviews this morning, saying he was determined to do the traditional Downing Street thing, which didn’t answer the question about the umbrella. If he starts to make a comeback, though, I could see the image of him, patriotically delivering his speech in the rain, being part of the fighting-spirit, John-Major’s-soapbox story.Q: When will the next but one General Election be?FranziA: That is a clever way of asking how successful a Labour government will be, if elected. It is commonly said, including by me, that a Labour government would become unpopular quite quickly. But it is also said, including by me, that the Conservative Party is likely either to go on another holiday from reality, or to descend into civil war, or both. In which case we may get an interesting situation in the spring of 2028. The traditional pattern for majority governments before the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (repealed in 2022), was for a PM who was ahead in the opinion polls to hold an election after four years – usually in May, at the same time as the local elections.Q: Why ‘snap’? Six weeks notice seems about standard, and four-and-a-half years into the parliament?Dean BullenA: It was “snap” in the sense that it was earlier than expected, but you are right that six weeks is standard: the statutory five weeks plus one week to allow parliamentary business to be wrapped up, as it will be today and tomorrow. Theresa May had a seven-week campaign in 2017 because she needed to allow extra time to get round the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.Q: Has there been a more hilariously ominous election announcement?Peter MetcalfeA: Looking back, there was Theresa May’s announcement in 2017. It didn’t rain, and Steve Bray hadn’t got his loudspeakers in place, but her argument that she needed a mandate to negotiate Brexit in the teeth of opposition from Labour peers convinced no one, even if there was an element of truth in it. It was ominous in the sense that it contributed to a feeling that she shouldn’t be handed too much power by the voters – a feeling that grew stronger during the campaign.Q: It is suggested that Sunak has gone early because going late offered no benefit: things are going to get worse. But given that he asked us to judge him by his delivery of five key priorities, and he has failed on three, are voters supposed to just ignore his own yardstick?Adrian HiltonA: I think this is a real weakness in the PM’s position: he hasn’t got a good reason that he can express in public for holding the election five months before he needed to. All the reasons that have been canvassed by journalists are questions of tactics that boil down to “things are likely to get worse”.Maybe most voters won’t care – they wanted the election now anyway – but it adds to the impression of weakness. As does, of course, naming five “key priorities” for 2023 and still not fulfilling three of the five targets 17 months later (debt falling, cut NHS waiting lists and stop the boats).Q: In what will likely be a general election of “Portillo” moments, who could be the biggest shock (to lose, rather than defy the odds)?JackA: I think Jeremy Hunt would be the biggest scalp, vulnerable to the Lib Dems in his new Godalming and Ash constituency. I don’t know if a serving chancellor has lost their seat in modern times.Q: How many letters of no confidence from his own MPs were in at the time? His own MPs don’t want him – is that why he called a snap election?SmilerA: Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, who is the only person who knows, won’t say, but I am told that he said yesterday it was “not as many as most people think”. I think most Conservative MPs thought Rishi Sunak was the best leader, and all the talk of getting rid of him was coming from a very small minority – nowhere near the 52 needed to trigger a vote of confidence in Sunak’s leadership.The plotting to oust him was not one of the reasons for going for an election five months earlier than he needed to, although the prospect of continuing damage from discontent and defections may have been a factor.Q: Who’s gonna win then?RulesOfEngagementA: That is up to the British people, but my prediction is a Labour majority of 50.These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by John Rentoul at 12pm BST on Thursday 23 May. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.John also sends a weekly Commons Confidential newsletter exclusive to Independent Premium subscribers, taking you behind the curtain of Westminster. 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Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer will dominate the headlines for the next six weeks, with one of the pair heading for Downing Street on 5 July.But while the battle between the Conservatives and Labour will take precedence, the success of the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK will shape much of the outcome.On the prime minister’s right he faces an onslaught from Reform leader Richard Tice, who took the reins of the former Brexit Party from Nigel Farage.And on Mr Sunak’s left, attempting to win over more moderate disgruntled Tories, is the Lib Dems’ Sir Ed Davey.Rishi Sunak launched his campaign on Wednesday night More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has portrayed himself as thorough and evidence-led. That’s why his gamble to call a U.K. general election for July 4 has come as such a surprise.Those personal traits were supposed to be attributes that would endear him to British voters following the chaos of his two predecessors in the top job, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.But if opinion polls ahead of the election prove right, he hasn’t shifted the dial much, if at all. The main opposition Labour Party is widely seen to be ahead of the Conservatives, who have been in power since 2010.Sunak became prime minister in October 2022, when he replaced his predecessor Truss and pitched himself as a stable pair of hands after Truss roiled financial markets with a botched plan of unfunded tax cuts. Sunak had warned Conservative Party members that her economic plan was reckless and would cause havoc. He proved right.On replacing her after an uncontested leadership battle, Sunak became Britain’s first leader of color, the first Hindu to become prime minister — and at 42, the youngest leader for more than 200 years. Sunak, now 44, has enjoyed a rapid rise to the top within Conservative ranks. He was plucked from seemingly nowhere four years ago to become Treasury chief on the eve of the coronavirus pandemic.Within weeks, he had to unveil the biggest economic support package any Chancellor of the Exchequer has ever had to outside wartime. Smooth, confident and at ease with the march of modern technology, he was dubbed “Dishy Rishi” and quickly became one of the most trusted and popular faces within Johnson’s government. That was largely thanks to his job retention program, which paid up to 80% of the wages of those who couldn’t work during the COVID-19 lockdown, arguably saving millions of jobs.Sunak notably highlighted his record during the pandemic, before which he was barely known outside of the Houses of Parliament, in his address to the nation on Wednesday as he announced the date of the general election.“As I stand here as your prime minister, I can’t help but reflect that my first proper introduction to you was just over four years ago,” Sunak said in pouring rain outside No. 10 Downing Street. “As I did then, I will forever do everything in my power to provide you with the strongest possible protection I can — that is my promise to you,” he added.In his 20 months in office, Sunak has struggled to keep a lid on bitter divisions within his Conservative Party. One side wants him to be much tougher on immigration and bolder in cutting taxes, while another have urged him to move more to the centerground of politics, the space where historically British elections are won.That tension has been most notable in his controversial plan to send migrants arriving in small boats across the English Channel to Rwanda rather than being allowed to seek asylum in Britain. The more right wing elements in his party have argued that the policy is destined to fail, and urged Sunak to block all routes of legal challenge.Despite a toxic inheritance of squeezed living standards and over-stretched public services, he pitched himself as a leader that would restore calm and stability to the economy and revive the party’s fortunes.A year and a half on, inflation is down to near-normal levels, wages are rising and mortgage rates are set to start falling. A general election must take place before Jan. 2025, but Sunak’s decision to call an early election is widely seen as a gamble that he will be rewarded for steering the British economy into calmer waters. Time will tell if that gamble pays off, but the early reaction to his rain-soaked speech Wednesday wasn’t promising. Thursday’s newspapers ran with headlines like “Drowned and out” and Sunak became a figure of fun across social media.“It doesn’t look good, for any prime minister to look completely sodden and, damp in the way that Rishi Sunak did,” said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London.Sunak was born in 1980 in Southampton on England’s south coast to parents of Indian descent who were both born in East Africa. His father was a family doctor and his mother ran a pharmacy, whose accounts he’d often help with. He has described how his parents saved to send him to Winchester College, one of Britain’s most expensive and exclusive boarding schools, then went to Oxford University to study politics, philosophy and economics — the degree of choice for future prime ministers. He then got an MBA at Stanford University, which proved to be a launchpad for his subsequent career as a hedge fund manager at Goldman Sachs in the U.S. There he met his wife, Akshata Murty, the daughter of the billionaire founder of Indian tech giant Infosys. They have two daughters.The couple are the wealthiest inhabitants yet of No. 10 Downing Street, according to the Sunday Times’ 2024 Rich List, with an estimated fortune of 651 million pounds ($815 million). They’re even richer than King Charles III, a level of wealth that Labour leader Keir Starmer says make Sunak out of touch with the everyday realities and struggles of working people.With his fortune secure, Sunak was elected to Parliament for the safe Tory seat of Richmond in Yorkshire in 2015. In Britain’s 2016 Brexit referendum, he supported leaving the European Union. When “leave” unexpectedly won, Sunak’s career took off. He served in several junior ministerial posts before being appointed chancellor in February 2020.Despite being instinctively a low-tax, small state politician who idolizes former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, he splashed out more than 400 billion pounds ($500 billion) in an attempt to minimize the damage wrought by the pandemic. With hindsight, that looks less of a gamble than the one he’s embarked on now.___Follow all AP’s reporting on British politics at https://apnews.com/hub/british-politics More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Tories would need the biggest turnaround in the polls in British general election history to pull off a shock victory, Britain’s two leading pollsters have warned.Professor Sir John Curtice and Lord Robert Hayward have both noted that a party has never before come from so far behind in the polls to win a general election.The biggest bounce so far was Labour under Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 which gained 10 points on Theresa May’s Conservatives but still came 55 seats behind in a hung parliament.Sir John, who is expected to be a regular on people’s TV screens analysing polls during the election, agreed that there is no historic precedent for a party to come from so far behind.Rishi Sunak is facing a monumental task of historic proportions (PA) More