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    Failed Tory project fear drove voters to Labour and Reform, poll reveals

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Conservatives’ “project fear” tactic deployed to scare voters with the threat of a Labour “supermajority” has spectacularly backfired, new polling has revealed.According to findings from Techne UK for The Independent, twice as many people are “more likely” to vote Labour (26 per cent) than more likely to vote Conservative (13 per cent) as a result of the warning used by Rishi Sunak and senior Conservatives about handing Sir Keir Starmer too much power.The tactic was also used to try to prevent Tory voters defecting to Reform, but almost one in 10 (9 per cent) said the warning had in fact made them “more likely” to vote for Nigel Farage’s party.The survey’s findings appear to confirm warnings by former chancellor George Osborne – whose own project fear tactics were blamed for defeat in the EU Brexit referendum – that Mr Sunak and the Tories were “fighting the wrong campaign”.He had warned they were too focused on Reform and letting Labour “run rampant” in so-called blue wall safe seats.But the polling by Techne has offered the Tories a slither of hope with postal voting.While just under a quarter of those voting have said they will vote by post, the results break much more favourably for the Conservatives and Reform UK.Considering only the vote by post, the Conservatives would get 30 per cent, Labour 33 per cent, Reform UK 26 per cent and the Lib Dems 6 per cent.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrives in Redcar, North Yorkshire, while on the campaign trail More

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    Reform drops more candidates as it reports Channel 4 to Electoral Commission

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailReform UK has dropped three more candidates and said it has reported Channel 4 to the Electoral Commission, after the broadcaster released footage of an activist campaigning for Nigel Farage using a racial slur to describe Rishi Sunak.Edward Oakenfull, Robert Lomas, and Leslie Lilley, will still appear on the ballot paper as Reform candidates as it is too late for them to be removed, but they are no longer being backed by the party.Mr Oakenfull posted offensive comments about the IQ of sub-Saharan Africans on social media last year. He told the BBC the remarks were “taken out of context”.Mr Lilley reportedly posted on social media that people arriving on small boats were “scum”. Meanwhile, Mr Lomas allegedly said black people should “get off [their] lazy arses” and stop acting “like savages”.The party dropping its candidates comes after an undercover report on activists involved in Nigel Farage’s bid to win a parliamentary seat in Clacton, Essex.Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaking during a BBC Question Time Leaders’ Special (Peter Byrne/PA) More

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    ‘Panicking’ Rishi Sunak in final weekend of campaigning to save his own seat

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s Labour opponent in his Richmond and Northallerton seat in Yorkshire has accused him of “panicking” as the prime minister campaigned to save his own seat in the last weekend before polling day.Tom Wilson, the 29-year-old NHS worker and musician who spoke to The Independent last weekend, has questioned why the prime minister’s team apparently tried to arrange a hustings in the seat with farmers and then pulled out.Mr Sunak, who was campaigning in the North East yesterday to be close to his seat for the weekend, is potentially facing the prospect of being the first prime minister to lose his constituency in an election in British history.Some recent polls have suggested the result in the rural seat, which covers part of the Yorkshire Dales but recently elected a Labour regional mayor, is “too close to call”.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak with his wife Akshata Murty More

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    Among the gift shops and Goth daytrippers – meet the ‘Whitby woman’ who could sway the election

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailPensioners whizz around on mobility scooters, pirate-themed boats sail by, couples clutch each other’s hands. Welcome to Whitby: the seaside town in North Yorkshire that has lent its name to a target voter in the general election race.The so-called “Whitby woman”, a term coined by polling think-tank More in Common, is a Tory voter who remains undecided about who will get her vote on 4 July. With an average age of around 61, she is a homeowner who lives in a suburb or a small town like Whitby, who voted in favour of Brexit and is less likely to have gone to university.And her actions are expected by some to have an impact on whether the Tories suffer a landslide defeat, fall to a narrow defeat, or cling onto power.Bar her age, Sadie Myers, who has an antique shop in Whitby called Den of Antiquity, perfectly fits the profile of the “Whitby woman”.“It’s like opening a box of chocolates that look different but all taste the same,” the 49-year-old says of the political leaders. “You get bored.”Ms Myers is not a fan of Rishi Sunak or Sir Keir Starmer so is thinking of leaning towards Nigel Farage’s Reform.”I take pride in the fact that I always vote,” she says. “I think it’s very important, especially for women. We earned the right to vote and we need to hold onto that, you know. When you are not given people that you can warm to, it makes it very difficult.”Surrounded by figurines of Betty Boop and the Buddha, it is clear Ms Myers, who was born into the antiques and jewellery industry, has an encyclopaediac knowledge of the many miscellaneous items she peddles.Meanwhile, as a 61-year-old lifelong Tory who voted for Brexit, Liz Richards closely aligns with the Whitby woman. Despite voting for the Tories her whole life, she is adamant they will not be getting her vote this time.“The main reason, to be honest, is Covid,” Ms Richards tells The Independent from behind the counter of her gift shop. Whitby night sky More

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    Service record row and Sunak’s D-Day blunder – but Johnny Mercer fights on for one last campaign

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email“On the doorsteps I’ve noticed a real shift,” Johnny Mercer tells his assembled troops on the grass verge at a post-war council housing estate on the northwestern fringe of Plymouth.Poring over a road map, the 42-year-old former Commando, wearing a polo shirt, combat trousers and rough-terrain shoes, says people are not liking Sir Keir Starmer, but that many are “pi**ed off” and don’t want to vote.“I get that,” he says, before pushing the message to the small group that a local vote for Reform UK means Labour dominance across the city, with a second constituency likely already in their hands and a party-run city council.“We can do this is. Don’t be downhearted – it has been difficult here,” he rounds off before thanking the mostly volunteer “heroes” for their support.It’s more Duke of Edinburgh than a tour in Afghanistan but for Mr Mercer, this is a tough election assignment.Mr Mercer told The Independent he will serve just one more term if he is re-elected due to the scale of abuse aimed at himself and his family.Yet the campaign is one he appears to be relishing, marching down the street with his wife and “greatest asset”, Felicity Cornelius-Mercer, to knock on doors as passing motorists wave and sound their horns.The day kicks off with Mr Mercer directing his team on door knocking duties More

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    Reform takes three point lead over Tories in shock poll

    Sign up to our free fortnightly newsletter from The Independent’s Race Correspondent Nadine WhiteSign up to our free fortnightly newsletter The Race ReportThe Tories appeared to be on the brink of catastrophe in the general election as a new poll gave Nigel Farage’s Reform UK a three-point lead.The Whitestone poll for Reach plc newspapers put Reform on 21 per cent, the Tories on just 18 per cent while Labour maintained a clear lead on 38 per cent.The devastating result for Mr Sunak means that the position of leader of the opposition, which Mr Farage covets, appears to be wide open.However, according to Electoral Calculus in a general election this would leave the Conservatives on a mere 50 seats, give Reform 29 but the Lib Dems would be the official opposition with 74 seats.Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has sought to distance himself from his campaigners’ comments (Paul Marriott/PA) More

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    Most expensive purchase and the music that makes him cry: Keir Starmer’s quickfire Q&A

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailMost expensive thing boughtThese days it’s probably my Arsenal season ticket – but well worth it. After 18 years in the same seats it’s not something I’m going to give up.Memory of a fightIn 1980, my friend Graham being punched and kicked by some local kids for being gay. I jumped in alongside our friend Mark so all three of us ended up getting beaten up.Do you pray?I don’t pray, but I think faith is valuable. It’s a place where people can invest a lot of themselves and find comfort, hope and a sense of security. I value that a lot.Biggest regretNot taking the opportunity to tell my dad I loved him in his final moments. That’s a regret that will stay with me.My only major fears are around my kids – I think most parents will relate. I worry about their privacy, we do everything we can to give them the best chance of an independent life uninterrupted by my work.The big hope for all of us in the Labour Party is that our message for change has resonated with the British people, and we get the chance to change our country in government.Funniest momentDefinitely my mum and dad bringing our dog to Buckingham Palace when I was being knighted. The image of this massive Great Dane sticking its head out of the car window to a bemused security guard will always bring a smile to my face.How do you feel about your parents not seeing you become PM?It’s not easy. My mum passed away a few weeks before I became an MP. I know she’d be beaming now.Book that inspiresJo Cox’s book, More In Common. As she so eloquently puts it, we have more in common than that which divides us. We have to get past the politics of division, this book is my north star for that.Favourite poemAt the D-Day commemorations in Portsmouth a couple of weeks ago, the poet Tomos Roberts recited a poem ‘The People Who Gave Us Today’ which was an incredibly powerful moment.Favourite musicWhen I started at Leeds University it was an explosion of culture, discovering artists like Orange Juice and Edwyn Collins. But I do need to mention Stormzy’s most recent album which is a brilliant piece of work.What can you play on the flute most easily?My favourite was playing quartets – particularly Mozart, although I wouldn’t fancy my chances these days.Music that makes you cry Beethoven, Piano Concerto No.5, 2nd movement – when the piano comes in. It’s the music me and Vic walked into at our wedding, and will always remind me of that special day.Sports heroThierry Henry, always.I try not to define myself by people in the past but it’s hard to look past Nelson Mandela. Anyone aspiring to lead a country can learn from the way he conducted himself as a leader.I hate losing.I hate losing. More

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    Keir Starmer – what he really makes of Trump, Blair and Corbyn

    Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailKeir Starmer has laid out his political philosophy and goals which echo the last Labour leader to end a long period in the political wilderness: Tony Blair.As he prepares for what now seems to be an inevitable landslide victory, Sir Keir said: “I want people to feel ‘Thank God… our country is now better, and I feel better off.’”His words were not far from the D:Ream song which propelled Blair to victory: “Things can only get better.”In the second part of his exclusive interview with The Independent, Sir Keir made clear that he has sought Blair’s advice on transitioning from opposition to government but not necessarily on policy. Drawing the veil from his political philosophy he spoke about:How he would do a deal with TrumpWhy he believes the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) is wrong but refuses to rule out tax risesWhere he and Tony Blair disagreeWhy he thinks redistribution is a good thingWhy he really stuck around in Corbyn’s shadow cabinetRead part one of Sir Keir’s interview with The Independent here, where he reveals his innermost thoughts about his family, regrets with his father and homophobic attacks on his boyhood friend.As he prepares for next week’s election, Sir Keir said: “I want people to feel ‘Thank God… our country is now better, and I feel better off’” More