UK

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Conservatives are on course for their worst defeat in more than a century with high-profile names including Jeremy Hunt set to lose their seats, according to a new poll.Adding further misery to a raft of gloomy polls for the government, the party will also be completely wiped out in Wales on July 4, the survey predicts.Luke Tryl, executive director of More In Common UK, which carried out the research, said the findings showed that the Tories were in a “deep hole” and the problem was getting worse.The poll, of more than 10,000 people, suggests they would hold on to just 155 seats, their worst total since 1906.Labour would be on 406 and have a majority of 162, just shy of its 1997 and 2001 landslides.As well as Mr Hunt, Tory casualties would also include defence secretary Grant Shapps, who would lose Welwyn Hatfield to Labour.Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt would lose his seat according to the mega-poll (James Manning/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailOn display inside Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg’s untidy office are three large portraits: Sir Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson and himself.They hang from cream-coloured wallpaper behind a cluttered wooden desk at the centre of the HQ for Sir Jacob’s uphill campaign to win the North East Somerset and Hanham constituency – his fifth straight term in the area.“Boris went up when he became leader… we always had the leader up,” says Sir Jacob, looking up at the pictures. “Then Covid came and we’ve hardly used the office since.”No Liz Truss then. But what about Rishi Sunak, will he get his place next to Churchill?‘Um… well, we will eventually,” Sir Jacob says, with a wry smile. “We’ll see how much we need it after the election, when he’s returned comfortably as PM. Yes, absolutely.”It’s 17 days to polling day on 4 July and I’m in Keynsham, on the edge of Bristol, following Sir Jacob’s general election campaign.The HQ for Sir Jacob’s campaign is hive of activity ahead of morning canvassing More

Sunak branded ‘pound shop Nigel Farage’ during live radio interviewSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has played down the record number of small boats this year. The Home Office revealed that 882 people the Channel this year, which is the highest figure in two years. reacting to the results, the prime minister said there would always be some days “worse than others”.Nigel Farage is set to win the Clacton constituency in Essex, according to a poll. Survation pollsters said he could win 42 per cent of the votes granting him the “biggest swing in modern electoral history”. It comes as Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said Reform UK’s manifesto is a “whole load of nice-sounding pledges” that don’t add up – then joked the right-wing party had taken his “best policies”.With only two weeks to go until the general election, the SNP has vowed to deliver Scottish independence and reverse Brexit as the party launched its manifesto in Edinburgh today. John Swinney said a vote for SNP is a vote for Scotland’s values as the party leader also promised to fight the two-child benefit cap, nuclear weapons and to push for the abolition of the House of Lords. Show latest update 1718808956Pictured: George Galloway launches Workers Party of Britain manifesto in ManchesterLeader of the Workers Party of Britain George Galloway holds a copy of the manifesto during his party’s manifesto launch at the Voco hotel in Manchester More

Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insightAs Nigel Farage launched his bold manifesto aimed at attracting unhappy Tory voters, I’ve been taking questions from Independent readers on the divisive Reform leader and his plans for Parliamentary domination.On Monday, Mr Farage predicted he would become prime minister after the 2029 election as he unveiled Reform UK’s “contract with the people”.While right-wing supporters cheered Reform UK’s pledges, economists and experts criticized the manifesto for its unrealistic economic plans and environmentally harmful anti-net zero policies.Reform’s pledges came as Mr Farage was pegged to win in his constituency of Clacton in Essex by pollster Ipsos.Amid the growing conversation around the former Ukip and Brexit Party leader, many have been left asking how Mr Farage – who has failed to secure a seat in Parliament seven times – gets “so much airtime” and if he could feasibly be prime minister in 2029.Here are nine questions from Independent readers – and my answers from the “Ask Me Anything” event.Q: Why does anybody imagine that Nigel Farage has anything interesting to offer?SwayneA: Whether we like Farage’s views or not it is hard to ignore his influence on British politics. Brexit would not have happened without him and his two parties (Ukip and the Brexit Party). While for his critics he appears to be a clown and a caricature of a cartoon-like rightwinger, for others he is a hero. He is willing to take on issues where normal politicians fear to tread. He is the one who put the small boats on the agenda and then took on the banks cancelling people’s bank accounts. The latter was arguably a public service which helped a wider community than the Brexiteer core he normally represents. Another journalist from the BBC remarked to me a few months ago that they believed Farage to be the most influential UK politician of the 21st century. I would argue it was Blair but Farage is certainly a close second. He once told me when we met in Washington DC at the CPAC conference that he was “the father of populism”. I think that is true in that Trump, Melone and others followed Farage. When Le Pen remodelled her father’s fascist party and tried to make it more acceptable she followed Farage’s playbook and based National Rally on Ukip. What we are seeing worryingly emerge in Europe with right-wing parties is linked to the Farage effect. It is proof you do not necessarily need to be elected to parliament to be influential. While many will see him as an irrelevant extremist they ignore him or discount him at their peril.Q: Why is he given so much airtime? There are other smaller parties with arguably more sensible policies to offer. PetresyA: The broadcasters have a public service obligation to provide balance in their coverage and be impartial. Similar complaints have been made against the Greens in the past. The simple answer is that while a party he has led has only won one seat at a general election (Clacton in 2015) and two in by-elections, his parties have polled highly. He also led Ukip to victory (biggest party) in a European election (2014) and repeated that with the Brexit Party (2019). There is an argument to be made that, whatever people think of his policies, he is the most influential British politician since Tony Blair. Of course, his recent airtime was as an employee of GB News but in this election with Reform running third in the polls consistently and second to Labour in two polls, it is hard to exclude him from the airwaves. To do so would probably fuel his argument that there is an establishment conspiracy trying to silence the views of ordinary British people. It is rather ironic given that he comes from the establishment himself but, as we are seeing on the European continent and in the US, this populist argument is gaining a lot of traction. To deliberately exclude people like Farage from the airwaves will only make his case appear stronger.Q: Reform is a limited company and not a party. How could this could play a part in the election – what do voters need to know and what could that mean for the future of Reform?Shila LedbrookA: This is a question which needs addressing after the election. Reform is certainly not democratic in the way it is run. We saw that when Nigel Farage decided to ditch one of its policies live on air without any consultation. He and Richard Tice are the two major shareholders. There is a serious question over whether a political party can be run like this without any proper accountability to its members. Certainly, if Farage wants to lead a new Conservative Party or party of the centre-right then he will have to get used to an organisation where he cannot be a mini dictator deciding policy on the hoof and have one where members can hold the leadership to account. To a certain extent though this issue is as relevant to the Tories and Labour, especially in the way they imposed friends and allies of the leaderships on constituencies where the seat was winnable.Q: Why isn’t the MSM not pointing out the numerous lies that came from Remain supporters?BrummieGuyA: I think the mainstream media is doing that. One of our front pages this week talked of the delusions of Farage, for example. His predecessor Richard Tice was being pressed heavily even by GB News on the way the “contract with the people” did not add up. The issue is that Farage in particular is a very skilled politician. There is not a question he has not heard before, he does not need an autocue and he loves the fact that he is counter-cultural and upsets people in polite society. Like all the most effective populists – including Trump, Meloni, Le Pen, Orban and Wilders – he can reframe a question as being part of the establishment or mainstream conspiring against ordinary people. It’s never about them until it comes to the glory, all attacks are attacks on hard-working people. The strategy is very effective and the best interrogators struggle to pin Farage down.Q: What do people have to lose by voting for Reform? Why on earth would any sane person vote for Lib-Lab-Con, given the mess they’ve already made of everything?AndrewAndrewA: This is Farage’s main offer. The others are mostly the same trying to occupy the same ground. It is why he is so effective and why so many Tory voters have appeared to have switched. We will see though if they really do vote Reform on 4 July. After all there is only one poll that counts.Q: In a mythical reform government, who would be chancellor? Home secretary? Foreign secretary? Would Farage fill all these positions?RG50A: Politics in five years could be very different. People none of us know about currently are likely to emerge.Q: On Farage’s statement that he’ll run for PM in 2029: “Don’t you need a majority government before you can run for PM?”ElectricWormA: If the centre-right forms the majority and he is leader then the King will have to ask him to form a government. A lot of “ifs” there though.Q: What’s the likelihood of Reform chipping away enough of the Tory vote for them to consider inviting him to join/lead their party?JimmyA: If the Tories get less than 100 seats and someone on the right gets elected leader there is a good chance Farage would be invited to join. What happens then? Farage does not like following others. So yes there is a path for this to happen even if other outcomes are more likely.Q: After his current moment of fame in the UK, will Farage be off to the USA for another moment of fame in the autumn?HoratioMy answer:A: I think the issue here is will Farage win his seat? If he does then he is in for a five-year haul of trying to build a coalition on the right with the Tories perhaps and a bid to become prime minister. Even if that does not work he will be stuck in parliament and using that as a platform.If he fails in Clacton then it may be a race between him and Rishi Sunak as to who heads over the pond first. There is no doubt Farage is happy in the US where he is immensely popular but faces none of the physical danger he is exposed to here which is why he can go nowhere in the UK without security. Trump would almost certainly give him a job, the two are great friends. Even if Trump does not win he could be part of the rebuild of the Republican populist right.These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by David Maddox. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.Our chief political commentator John Rentoul sends a weekly Commons Confidential newsletter exclusive to Independent Premium subscribers, taking you behind the curtain of Westminster. If this sounds like something you would be interested in, head here to find out more. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA Tory advert suggesting dictators are looking forward to a Labour government has been branded “shameful and demeaning” by the former Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation.Crossbench peer Lord Carlile said the Conservatives “should be ashamed of themselves” for publishing a photoshopped image of Sir Keir Starmer being cheered on by North Korean despot Kim Jong Un.The party’s official X account shared the image, in which the North Korean leader is flanked by Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping.The Tory attack ad was posted on Twitter with the caption ‘they’re watching’ More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNearly 3 million people have applied to register to vote since the general election was called on 22 May — down by a quarter from the same period before the 2019 general election. In 2019, the general election was called on 29 October and the deadline to register was 26 November. In that period 3.85m people applied to register in this period cmpared to 2.90m this time.Over 630,000 people applied to register to vote yesterday alone (18 June), as the deadline approached at midnight. This is the second-highest number on record, broken only on the 26 November 2019, when 660,000 people registered in one day.The latest figure of people on the parliamentary electoral register in the UK is 46,652,520, but it has not been updated since December 2023. Gen-Z not showing up? There has been much discussion over young voters not being democratically involved — with an exclusive Independent poll showing that a third of young people do not plan to vote.In fact, registration application among the youngest group of voters (18-25) is at just half of the 2019 equivalent period; with just 746,000 Gen-Z voters registering to vote since the election was called this year, compared to 1.4 million in the lead-up to the 2019 general election.It is also worth noting that a large chunk of the current under-25s group were not of voting age at the last general election. Therefore, a substantial portion of Gen-Z voters will not be registered to vote in this election, compared to other age groups. Nonetheless, people aged 35 and under were flocking to register to vote at the final hour, more than any other age group. Over half (55 per cent) of all registrations yesterday were in the 18-34 age group, and 164,000 of these were people aged 25 and under.People aged 25-34 have been the most keen to register overall, with 896,825 registrations since 22 May alone.Though the registration deadline has passed, applications for postal vote are still open until today (19 June) at 5pm. Voters in the July 4 general election will also need a valid form of photo ID, including a passport, driving licence, or blue badge. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSir Jacob Rees-Mogg said Reform UK’s manifesto is a “whole load of nice-sounding pledges” that don’t add up – then joked the right-wing party had taken his “best policies”.The Brexiteer is facing a battle for his political future in North East Somerset and Hanham where regional mayor Dan Norris is projected to win the seat for Labour, according to the latest polls.Canvassing on Tuesday, Mr Rees-Mogg, who has held the seat since 2010, came across voters in the constituency who said they’d be voting for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. It comes after the party released its so-called “contract for the people” with policies set to appeal to right-wing voters, including pulling Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights and scrapping net zero targets.Speaking to The Independent, Mr Rees-Mogg, who is a well-known admirer of Mr Farage, dismissed the party’s manifesto and described some of its representatives as “nutty candidates who like Hitler”.But when discussing some of the policies, including increased spending on defence and scrapping 20mph speed zones, he joked: “They are cribbing from me – they have stolen all my best policies.”He later added: “The broad Tory family shares a lot of things positions in common, and that’s why I’m keen the Tory family should be reunited. It’s obviously not going to happen before the election but try and do it after the election would be a good thing.”Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg spoke of his admiration for Nigel Farage from within the North East Somerset and Hanham Conservative Association office More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRussian interference in the UK general election will likely “ramp up dramatically” over the next fortnight, the chair of the United States senate intelligence committee has warned.Washington has witnessed “egregious efforts” by Moscow to interfere in the democratic process across the globe, similar to those alleged in the 2016 US presidential election, said Mark Warner.The senior senator, who is regularly briefed on secret US intelligence, said he had been closely monitoring the situation in the UK, adding: “I think the next big test of the state of play will be the British elections in a few weeks.”Mark Warner chairs the US senate intelligence committee More