UK

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailExclusive polling for the Independent can reveal that last week’s Diane Abbott-Labour row made “no difference” for 82 per cent of voters — in fact, it might have boosted Labour’s chances. Tensions erupted in the Labour Party when the Times reported that Ms Abbott would be banned from standing for the party, following an investigation into comments she made on racism and anti-semitism.Party leader Sir Keir Starmer was repeatedly evasive on whether Ms Abbott would be able to stand as a Labour candidate in her constituency of Hackney North and Stoke Newington. After deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner spoke out in support of Ms Abbott on Sky News, Sir Keir finally said she would be “free to go forward as a Labour candidate”.Amidst the turmoil, hundreds of people had gathered at Hackney Town Hall to “stand with Diane”, while some voters expressed anger at Labour’s treatment of Ms Abbott.But despite concerns over shedding the Labour vote, exclusive polling data shows that 8 in 10 voters were largely unmoved by the Abbott-Starmer row, and would not be changing their voting choices.In fact, 6 per cent of voters said that Sir Keir’s handling of the issue made them more likely to vote Labour. Meanwhile, 3 per cent were more likely to vote Conservative than before, and 4 per cent were less likely to vote at all.Among 2019 Labour voters, the row appeared to have a more divisive affect; 10 per cent were even more likely to vote Labour, but a further 10 per cent were more likely to abstain from voting.All this is reflected in the choice of candidates, with a view to not straying too far from this equidistance which currently represents the compass of the Labour Party.Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo said: “Enough time has now passed since the Diane Abbott candidate selection row for me to be sure that whilst the issue attracted a lot of media attention the overall outcome has been not to affect Labour vote share in the polls.“The support for Starmer comes partly from the Conservatives because of the mistakes that the Conservatives themselves have made.“Starmer has to manage a very varied audience of voters at the moment and it is difficult to identify their precise characteristics. “Until July 4th he must find a balance to maintain this success by making everyone happy. Let’s remember that it is easier to maintain left-wing votes by moving a little to the center than vice versa, because left-wing voters have no alternatives while right-wing voters have several, starting with the Lib Dems.”The latest Techne polls also show hardly any impact on Labour’s lead since questions arose over whether Ms Abbott could run for Labour in late May.Labour is currently polling at 44 per cent of national vote share, with a stable 24-point lead over the Conservatives. Both parties lost one point in the polls this week. More

Nigel Farage claims Rishi Sunak ‘not a patriotic leader’ after D-Day blunderSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Conservative Party is facing electoral wipeout, the latest poll has revealed, as a close ally of Rishi Sunak’s was forced to deny speculation that the prime minister could quit before the general election on 4 July.Labour is set for a majority of 416 at the upcoming general election, leaving the Tories at just 37 seats, according to the new Deltapoll survey, which puts Sir Keir Starmer’s party on 46 per cent compared to the Conservatives on 21 per cent – with even the prime minister set to lose his Yorkshire seat.Mr Sunak is claimed to be despondent over the furious backlash to his decision to skip a D-Day memorial attended by other world leaders, and he appeared to dodge questioning on Saturday after a scheduled press event was cancelled during a campaign visit to a walled garden at Auckland Castle.With fierce critic Nadine Dorries claiming to have heard rumours on Saturday “that Sunak’s about to fall on his sword”, cabinet minister Mel Stride was forced to insist there was “no question” whether or not Mr Sunak would lead the Tories into polling day.Show latest update 1717943382Workers ‘desperate’ for change, says GMB union leaderWorkers are “desperate” for a change of government after 14 years of “chaos and failure” under the Conservatives, a senior union leader said.Gary Smith, general secretary of the GMB, told the union’s annual conference in Bournemouth that the building blocks of decency at work had been “hacked away” by the Tories.Workers had suffered low pay, long hours and insecurity and had had enough of the way the country has been run, he said.But Mr Smith also warned Labour that change cannot be just a “snappy election slogan”.He told delegates: “The Tories have imposed austerity, hollowed out our public services and left our economy in tatters.“They are agents of chaos and their time is up.“My challenge to Labour is to recognise that ‘change’ can’t be just a snappy election slogan. It must be brought to life in the reality of government.”Mr Smith said Labour’s New Deal for workers was a promising sign of the party’s plans in government, adding: “Our job is to hold the next Labour government to account and bring the New Deal to life.”“There is the prospect of a better future for workers,” he added, praising Labour for pledging to scrap the controversial legislation aimed at ensuring a minimum level of service during strikes.GMB general secretary Gary Smith More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA Tory minister has been forced to deny that Rishi Sunak will step down before the general election amid widespread anger at his D-Day snub.Work and pensions secretary Mel Stride said the prime minister will “absolutely” lead the Conservatives into the election.“There should be no question of anything other than that,” he told Sky News in an extraordinary moment.Follow our politics live blog for all the latest general election updates.It came after presenter Trevor Phillips said: “Lots of people will have looked at [his D-Day gaffe] and said this is the time, would it not be a courageous and moral act for him to announced… that he will now step aside to save seats which won’t be if he stays for the next four weeks?”Foreign secretary David Cameron took Rishi Sunak’s place at the ceremony More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailMore than a hundred seats across the UK could be ripe for tactical voting at the general election, according to a new analysis by The Independent.Based on a major poll from YouGov, published on Monday, almost half of the Conservatives’ projected wins come with a margin under 5 points. The Tories themselves may have an eye on 50 seats Labour and the Liberal Democrats are projected to win, if they can persuade Reform UK voters to back them.YouGov’s MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) poll suggested Labour were on course to win 422 seats on 4 July – a majority of 194. The Tories would win just 140, followed by the Lib Dems (48), the SNP (17), Plaid Cymru (2) and the Green Party (2).‘Tactical voting’ is a term used when a voter makes a choice on the ballot based on who is more likely to defeat a candidate to whom they object, rather than choosing the one they actively support. Close counts would make tactical voting a bigger factor.While some tactical voting websites have used the 2019 general election results to identify constituencies with the tightest margin, the Independent has looked at YouGov’s projections, which combine polling with constituency-level characteristics such as demographics, past vote choice, and current candidates.The Independent’s wider analysis has identified seats where a lead of under 10 per cent is projected for the winning party. Of the Tories’ 140 projected wins, 68 show a margin lead over either Labour, the Lib Dems or the SNP of under 5 per cent. Tactical decisions by left-wing voters in these constituencies could make the difference.Dr Stephen Fisher, a professor of political sociology at Trinity College, Oxford, said: “Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Greens all like each other’s parties reasonably enough to consider voting tactically for each other.“The seats that are most likely to be affected by tactical voting in substantial numbers are for the Lib Dems. I do think they’re hoping to pick up a lot of tactical votes from Labour supporters in their target seats, and Labour are not going to dissuade people from voting tactically. You had a lot of coordination between those two parties in the by-elections.”Polling expert Mark Pack is president of the Lib Dems, who have put their resources into targeting winnable seats. “I think that the thing that matters at this stage for all parties is to concentrate on maximising the number of seats you get,” he said.“And the more you get, the better you end up after polling day. It’s the intensive effort in the target seats that really makes a difference one way or another.”Luke Tryl, director of think tank More In Common, said voters are more clued in than ever on tactical voting.“The ‘time for change’ mood is so strong,” he said. “70% of voters say it’s time for change, versus 30% who say ‘stick with the plan’. More people will be inclined to vote tactically to get that change,” Mr Tryl told The Independent.He added: “What we’ve been seeing in by-elections is that voters have been very savvy about knowing who is best placed to defeat the Conservatives. So we’ve seen seats where the Lib Dems were the clear challengers, and Labour’s vote was squeezed, or vice versa.”While the Conservatives could be vulnerable to tactical voting, around 50 of YouGov’s projected wins for Labour and Lib Dems are also within the 5-point margin.Dr Fisher said: “In the vast majority of seats they’re defending, [the Tories] need the Reform vote to come back to the Conservatives. “You already do have the Conservatives arguing that a vote for anyone other than Conservatives is a vote for Keir Starmer. That was clearly targeted at anyone thinking of voting for Reform.”However, the Tories may struggle to attract Reform voters. A YouGov poll in May found that 43 per cent of intended Reform voters are not at all likely to vote Conservative.Tactical voting websites and resources have a unique role in modern elections, according to Mr Pack, because “broadly speaking, in a democracy, the more information voters have, the better informed voter outcomes will be”.He said: “There’s quite a big educational challenge to make sure that people know about tactical voting. It will be quite interesting to see how tactical voting [resources] play out, because they will potentially have quite an important role to play. “We’ve not really seen that opportunity in an election previously – where there’s such a strong anti-government mood.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAngela Rayner has accused the Conservatives of smearing a Labour general election candidate who parachuted into Normandy to raise money for the Royal British Legion.Tory councillor Daniel Nelson is under fire after mocking Labour’s Southend East and Rochford candidate Bayo Alaba for being out of the country on the 80th anniversary of D-Day. Follow our politics live blog for all the latest general election updatesIn a provocative post on X, Mr Nelson said he had been on “fantastic door knocking sessions” in the constituency. He said it was great to be with Tory candidate Gavin Haran “in the constituency talking to residents”.Angela Rayner accused the Tories of ‘smearing’ the Labour candidate More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Tory candidate to replace Michael Gove has boasted about moving into a home in the constituency, only for it emerge the property was seemingly an AirBnb.Councillor Ed McGuinness, who is running to be the Conservative MP for Surrey Heath, said he is “now a resident of St Paul’s ward”.Alongside pictures of himself entering a house, Mr McGuinness said Surrey Heath residents “rightly expect their MP to be a part of their community”.Follow our politics live blog for all the latest general election updatesBlaming Mr Gove’s last minute decision to step down when the snap summer general election was called, Mr McGuinness said it has been “hard to get a place so quickly”.But users on social media platform X quickly posted pictures of an AirBnB listing that appeared to show the same house.The property is described on the rental site as “a light and airy self contained annex”.One said it was “a bit weird to do a ‘getting the keys’ shot for an AirBnb’”.A community note on X said: “The property featured here appears on AirBnb and is therefore not indicative of the user being a ‘resident’ of the local community.“Moreover the availability of the property does not indicate a long-term booking has been made.”At the time of Mr McGuinness’s post about the home, it still appeared to be available to book on several days in July.Ed McGuinness hopes to succeed Michael Gove, who is not standing in Surrey Heath at the General Election More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailVoters across the European Union are going to the polls on the final day of voting for the European parliamentary elections to choose their representatives for the next five-year term.Polls opened in 20 EU countries early Sunday for the June 6-9 elections for a new European Parliament, the legislative branch of the 27-member bloc.Hundreds of millions of Europeans have been casting their ballots this week in one of the biggest global democratic events.Far-right parties are looking to gain more power amid a rise in the cost of living and farmers’ discontent, while the wars in Gaza and Ukraine are also key topics weighing on the minds of voters.The economy, jobs, poverty and social exclusion, public health, climate change and the future of Europe are also prominent issues. Official results are not expected before the last polling stations in all 27 EU nations close late Sunday.Currently:— An assault on the Danish prime minister is the latest in a recent spate of political violence in Europe— Italy’s hard-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni tells the EU’s traditional center parties their time is up— What’s at stake: AP’s explainer on how it works and the main issues— Overwhelmed by the elections? A guide to the key races to watchHere’s the latest: POLAND VOTES WITH WAR IN UKRAINE AND MIGRATION ISSUES IN FOCUS WARSAW, Poland — Poles are voting at a time of great insecurity for the nation, which is located along the eastern flank of both the European Union and NATO.The war just across the border in Ukraine has created fears that if Russia were to prevail, Poland and neighboring nations that were once under Moscow’s control could be targeted next.A migration crisis is also playing out along another stretch of the eastern border with Belarus. Poland accuses Belarus and Russia of luring large numbers of migrants to the border to create instability. The crisis has been deadly, with a migrant recently stabbing to death a Polish soldier. Dozens of migrants, if not more, have also died in the swampy forest area since 2021.Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stressed national security, promising to strengthen border controls as he seeks a good showing for his centrist, pro-EU party.On the minds of some Poles is the nature of the EU itself. In a nation under foreign rule for long spans in the past, some Poles fear that the 27-member bloc is taking away too much power from individual nations.“We know that the European Union is in crisis, so maybe our elections will change something in the decision-making and efficiency of this body,” said Anna Grzegorczyk-Łuczak, a 60-year-old architect who voted early in Warsaw. She would not say which party she voted for. BULGARIANS CAST BALLOTS FOR NEW PARLIAMENT AND IN EU ELECTIONS SOFIA, Bulgaria — Bulgarians are choosing a new parliament Sunday while also participating in European Union elections that have been overshadowed by domestic political instability and economic inequality as well as growing concern over the war in nearby Ukraine.It was Bulgaria’s sixth parliamentary election in three years. There were worries that voter fatigue and wide disillusionment with politicians who do not fulfill promises to fight corruption and introduce reforms could result in a low turnout and another fragmented parliament.Preliminary results are expected Monday in the voting for the 240 seats in the National Assembly and for 17 members in the European Parliament.The front-runners in the National Assembly elections were seen as the GERB center-right party led by three-time Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and the reformist coalition We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria. After running neck and neck in last July’s election, the two rival groups sought to break the political stalemate by forming an uneasy governing coalition, but it survived only nine months. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s decision to skip a D-Day memorial has been openly criticised by a second cabinet minister before he then cancelled a press event as the row engulfing the prime minister over the blunder deepened.Mr Sunak is said to be “despondent” over the backlash to him missing the international ceremony attended by other world leaders, including US president Joe Biden and French president Emmanuel Macron, to mark the 80th anniversary of the Allied landings.The prime minister did not take media questions on Saturday’s campaign trail after his awkward exchange with broadcasters the previous day. A scheduled opportunity for reporters to quiz him did not take place as was originally planned, with the Conservatives calling off the “huddle” citing time constraints, as Mr Sunak toured County Durham and Yorkshire.Rishi Sunak is claimed to be despondent over the furious backlash to his missing the international ceremony attended by other world leaders to mark the 80th anniversary of the Allied landings More