UK

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNigel Farage’s decision to stand as MP and take over as party leader could change Reform UK’s chances of winning seats in the general election, says polling firm YouGov.Reform was on course to come out of the election empty-handed, according to forecasts on Monday.But the data’s release came hours before The Independent broke the news that Nigel Farage had decided to stand as the party’s candidate in Clacton, Essex.According to YouGov’s director of political analytics, Patrick English, the announcement “significantly increases the odds” that Reform could win at least one seat – and even up to four.He told The Independent: “I do think that Farage intervening significantly increases the odds of Reform UK winning one, perhaps even two seats in Westminster. You might even put an upper band of four on that, depending on what exactly happens between now and 4 July.”He added: “Certainly, it will improve Reform’s prospects. It will give them a highly competent, highly experienced strong messenger in Nigel Farage to go out, not just in Clacton, but around the rest of the country, to try and deliver that Reform UK message.”Which seats could go to Reform?Before Mr Farage’s announcement, YouGov predicted that no seat would be won by Reform, despite 300 candidates throwing their hat in the ring. Any Reform win is still far from certain. The seats to watch are those where Reform is fielding its heavy hitters, according to Mr English.He said: “[For Reform successes], we’re looking at Clacton. We’re looking at Ashfield, because Lee Anderson is standing there trying to defend his seat as a defector. We’re looking at Boston and Skegness where Richard Tice is standing.”YouGov’s polling analysis on Monday suggested that Reform has a margin of 15 points or more to close in its top constituencies, even in Ashfield, where former Tory Mr Anderson hopes to retain the seat. In Clacton, Reform was 22 points behind the Conservatives, but this gap is expected to close considerably with Mr Farage replacing Tony Mack as the candidate.Clacton is the only seat ever won by Ukip, Mr Farage’s former party, when it was retained in 2015 by Tory defector Douglas Carswell. In 2019, it was gained for the Conservatives by former actor Giles Watling. In addition, Mr English suggests keeping an eye on seats in South Yorkshire, where Reform might find success among previous Ukip and Brexit voters.“We’re also looking up toward Barnsley and Doncaster,” said Mr English. “There are a couple of seats there where the Brexit Party did very well in 2019, but I think Reform UK could potentially be very strong there as well.”He added: “It’s important to maintain the distinction between Ukip and Reform. One thing that’s very prominent is, of course, Nigel Farage is no longer talking about Brexit, and that was Ukip’s sole purpose. The switch has now gone to focusing on immigration and British cultural values. It is a different party, but a lot of its supporters and all of its base will be very similar.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour is expected to drop a general election candidate days after The Independent revealed he was under investigation for alleged sexual harassment. Darren Rodwell, the party’s candidate for Barking, has been accused of ‘inappropriate touching’ of a woman at an event last month.He was not on a list of candidates rubber stamped by the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) on Tuesday. Although he could still technically be approved before nominations close on Friday afternoon, a leaked memo suggests the party is planning to ditch him.Darren Rodwell, Labour candidate for Barking, who is being investigated by party for alleged sexual harassment More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have been urged to unveil plans to tackle hardship at their first TV debate on Tuesday night, as new analysis suggests an estimated 900,000 people are just £10 a week from the poverty line.The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) said that current levels of poverty were “a stain on the moral conscience of our nation” and that whoever becomes prime minister on 4 July must reverse “this dismal trend a priority”.It comes as the two political leaders are set to face off on ITV and try to convince the nation’s voters to back their party in the upcoming general election.Official statistics released earlier this year showed the estimated total number of people in relative low income was at 14.35 million in the year to March 2023, with some 4.33 million of those being children.The latest figure for young people was the highest since comparable records for the UK began in 2002/03, and prompted campaigners at the time to say young people are being failed and forgotten.Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are going head-to-head on Tuesday evening in an ITV debate More

Nigel Farage confirms he will stand as Reform UK candidate in general electionSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNewly-crowned Reform UK leader Nigel Farage had a milkshake thrown at him today after he kicked off his general election campaign in Clacton-on-Sea.The incident came after Mr Farage promised to be a “bloody nuisance” in Westminster. A 25 year-old woman has been arrested. During his campaign launch, the former Ukip leader set out his goal for Reform UK to effectively take over the Conservative Party – and potentially put him in No 10 in future. On Tuesday he told ITV’s Good Morning Britain his goal was to take the party over rather than join it.In his first major public speech since announcing his candidacy he addressed a crowd of hundreds at Clacton Pier. Shouts from the crowd included “get ‘em Nige” and “we love you Nigel”. He told those gathered: “Send me to Parliament to be a bloody nuisance.”But Mr Farage did not have to go to Westminster to stir up chaos, as his supporters clashed with protestors over a sign that said: “Farage not welcome in Clacton”.Show latest update 1717512050Breaking: Two people arrested after milkshake thrown over Nigel Farage as he launched general election campaignEssex Police investigating the incident said they had arrested a 25-year-old woman, from Clacton, at the scene on suspicion of assault on Tuesday.While officers were responding and making this arrest, a second individual, a man, was arrested on suspicion of assaulting an emergency worker, said the force. Both individuals remain in custody for questioning.Maryam Zakir-Hussain4 June 2024 15:401717511416Farage: ‘I’ll make sure Starmer doesn’t shift the UK closer to the EU’Nigel Farage said he would make sure Sir Keir Starmer does not shift the UK closer to the European Union, if he is elected as an MP.The Reform UK leader said: “Brexit destroyed Labour, it split Labour very, very badly.“I’m going to be there, as a voice, making sure that Starmer doesn’t take us closer back to the European Union.”Mr Farage also said it was “entirely possible” to reduce net migration to zero which “still leaves lots of room for special skills where we may have a shortage”.Maryam Zakir-Hussain4 June 2024 15:301717510706Reform UK leader would be ‘champion’ for Clacton Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said he would be a “champion” for Clacton, which he described as a “forgotten, end-of-the-line town”. Speaking from the Moon and Starfish pub in the Essex town, he said: “I had to decide, do I want to stand as a Member of Parliament and spend every Friday working in Clacton? Huge decision for me, huge decision for me, I’ve decided, I do.”He added: “I’ll be here as many Fridays as I can, of course I will. My message to the people of Clacton is, ‘these people here supported me in Ukip and the local MP at the time, Douglas Carswell’.“They supported me hugely in the Brexit referendum campaign, and they want someone to stand up for their beliefs, and they don’t see that in today’s Conservative Party, they certainly don’t see that in today’s Labour Party.“I will be their champion on the national issues and on the local issues, having a national figure representing a forgotten, end-of-the-line town, who knows I may well be able to bring some investment and do some good.”( More

Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insight The two main contenders to be Britain’s next prime minister were set to face off in a televised debate on Tuesday, with Conservative leader Rishi Sunak hoping to boost his party’s dismal outlook and Labour’s Keir Starmer aiming to cement his status as favorite.The two-way leaders’ debate comes a day after populist Brexit-backer Nigel Farage dealt a blow to Sunak’s hopes of winning the July 4 election by announcing he will run for Parliament at the helm of the right-wing party Reform U.K.Farage kicked off his campaign Tuesday in the eastern England seaside town of Clacton-on-Sea, where he is making an eighth attempt to win a seat in the House of Commons. His seven previous tries all failed.The return of the populist politician, a key player in Britain’s 2016 decision to leave the European Union, is a major headache for Sunak’s party, which already trails Labour in opinion polls. Farage and Reform look likely to siphon off votes of socially conservative older voters that the Tories have been targeting.He claimed the Conservatives, who have been in office since 2010, had “betrayed” Brexit supporters because immigration had gone up, rather than down, since the U.K. left the EU.While Farage stands some chance of defeating Clacton’s Conservative incumbent and getting elected on July 4, he acknowledged that his larger goal is to lead the “real” opposition to a Labour Party government if the Conservatives lose, as many expect. Farage urged voters to “send me to Parliament to be a bloody nuisance.”As he left a pub where he had been speaking to the media, Farage was splattered with a beverage, which appeared to be a milkshake, by a bystander. Milkshakes became an unlikely political weapon during Britain’s acrimonious disputes over Brexit after the 2016 referendum. Farage was one of several politicians splattered with a sticky beverage in 2019.The attention-grabbing Farage has injected volatility into an election that will almost certainly result in either Starmer or Sunak becoming Britain’s leader.The two men will go head-to-head in a debate on broadcaster ITV, with Sunak likely to stress his stewardship of the economy, which has seen inflation fall to just over 2% from a peak of more than 11% in late 2022.Starmer, whose main campaign refrain is the single word “change,” aims to persuade voters tired of the Tories that Labour can be trusted with the U.K.’s economy, borders and security.Further debates are scheduled by other broadcasters before polling day, some featuring multiple party leaders and some just the two front-runners. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNigel Farage has had a McDonalds milkshake thrown over him after launching his campaign for the general election. A young woman approached the new Reform UK leader on the steps of a pub in Clacton before hurling the yellow-coloured drink over him. She then smiled and casually walked away, with some onlookers applauding, as Mr Farage headed towards his campaign bus. It is not the first time Mr Farage has been hit with milkshakes by critics, having been similarly targeted in Newcastle in 2019.The young woman hurled the drink at close range More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNigel Farage launched his eighth bid to become an MP today with a promise of plans to replace the Conservative Party in a revolution which will shake British politics.The Reform UK leader launched his bid to get into parliament in front of cheering crowds on Clacton pier on the Essex coast, declaring it to be “a revolution to change British politics”.The event – which was open to members of the public, who attended in their hundreds crowding into the street, lining footbridges and slopes around the launch – contrasted hugely with the stage managed events of Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer.But a young woman throwing what appeared to be banana milkshake in his face after he completed his media round revealed that not everyone in the Essex seaside town welcomed him and illustrated the dangers of being so exposed.Young woman throws milkshake at Farage More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNigel Farage appeared to ditch a key Reform UK policy live on air, admitting that his party’s plan to process asylum seekers in British Overseas Territories is “not terribly practical”.The former UKIP leader hit the airwaves ahead of launching his election campaign at Clacton pier today after announcing his dramatic return to political frontlines on Monday, as exclusively first revealed by The Independent.He was challenged over the party’s “secure detention for all asylum seekers” plan. Contained in Reform’s provisional manifesto, the policy states: “Asylum claims that arrive though safe countries will be processed rapidly offshore in British Overseas Territories. This will stop the scandal of undocumented asylum seekers absconding to work illegally or commit crime.”Click here for our live coverage of the general election campaign.Nigel Farage during a press conference to announce he will become the new leader of Reform UK and that he will stand as the parliamentary candidate for Clacton, Essex More