UK

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA new super poll has indicated that the Tories are on the cusp of suffering the biggest general election disaster in their history.Redfield and Wilton’s survey of 10,000 voters published today (3 June) has the Conservatives at just 20 per cent, 26 points behind Labour. It is the second poll in three days predicting disaster for the government.Director of research Philip van Scheltinga said: “After a week and a half of campaigning, the polls have changed, and the Conservatives are no longer facing a big loss on July 4. Instead, they are now facing a catastrophe, a complete wipeout.”Click here for the latest coverage of election polls. The findings have suggested a potential “Canada-style” collapse for the party based on when the Canadian Conservative Party went into the 1993 election as the government and only managed to hold on to two seats.In a crushing blow for the Tories, Electoral Calculus predicts they would win a mere 24 seats if the poll was replicated in an election. Electoral Calculus is a website used by political analysts which bases its estimates on the effects of swings in support between parties but does not take local factors into account.The Lib Dems would be the second party on 51 seats and Labour would have a majority of 426 with more than 500 seats. Even Rishi Sunak would lose his North Yorkshire seat to Labour in this scenario.This follows the MRP poll over the weekend suggesting the Tories will win only 66 seats.The Tories are emphasising that the predictions are based on polls with the only real poll being the general election itself.Rishi Sunak could be leading his party to its worst ever result More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email British opposition leader Keir Starmer pledged Monday to keep the U.K.’s nuclear weapons, seeking to dispel criticisms that his center-left Labour Party is soft on defense.Starmer is the current favorite to win Britain’s July 4 election and become prime minister. His campaign is centered on his claim to have transformed the party since he replaced Jeremy Corbyn, a longtime opponent of nuclear weapons and critic of NATO, as Labour leader in 2020.Starmer, 61, told voters they can trust Labour to safeguard the country’s economy, borders and security — trying to overturn a perception that Labour is weaker on security and more profligate with taxpayers’ money, than Prime Minister Rishi Suank’s center-right Conservatives.“My commitment to the nuclear deterrent is absolute,” Starmer said Monday during a campaign appearance at a military museum in Bury, northwest England.“Nobody who aspires to be prime minister would set out the circumstances in which it would be used. That would be irresponsible, but it is there as part of a vital part of our defense, so of course we would have to be prepared to use it,” he said.Britain has been a nuclear power since the 1950s, and both Labour and Conservative governments have consistently supported atomic weapons. Since the 1990s, Britain’s nuclear deterrent has consisted of four Royal Navy submarines armed with Trident missiles.Starmer said a Labour government would build the four new nuclear submarines that the Conservatives have already committed to. He criticized the Conservatives for defense spending cuts that had given the U.K. “the smallest army since the time of Napoleon,” the French leader who fought Britain 200 years ago.He said the world had entered “a new age of insecurity” and “national security is the most important issue of our times.”The schism between pro- and anti-nuclear forces was long a fault-line in the Labour Party. It was Prime Minister Clement Attlee’s Labour government that developed atomic weapons in the years following World War II, making Britain the world’s third nuclear-armed state after the United States and the Soviet Union.Starmer said his entire top team shared his commitment to the nuclear arsenal, even though several members, including deputy leader Angela Rayner and foreign affairs spokesman David Lammy, voted against renewing Trident in 2016.He also pledged that a Labour government would increase defense spending to 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product, though he has not set a deadline. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak says his Conservatives will meet the target by 2030.Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said Starmer had delivered “another empty speech.”“By refusing to commit to 2.5% defense spending by 2030 he has been unable to show the clear and bold leadership this country needs in uncertain times,” Shapps said.The Conservatives, who have been in office for 14 years, are trying to overcome a widespread sense that voters want change. On July 4 voters across the U.K. will elect lawmakers to fill all 650 seats in the House of Commons. The leader of the party that can command a Commons majority — either alone or in coalition — will become prime minister. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNigel Farage is making an “emergency” announcement about the general election, with speculation mounting that the former UKIP leader will launch his latest bid to become an MP.One source has told The Independent that the honorary president of Reform UK will declare he is going to stand for parliament in Clacton, in Essex. However, neither Farage or Reform would confirm or deny this.The seat is seen as a soft target with the pro-Remain former actor Giles Watling defending the seat for the Tories.Click here for our live coverage of the general election campaign.The honorary president of Reform UK has so far shied away from seeking a seat in the general election, but rumours have been swirling that he will run in Clacton.It is understood that Mr Farage has been looking at the Essex seat for a number of months because it was previously held by Ukip’s Douglas Carswell and had a high vote in favour of Brexit.Mr Farage had announced last week that he had been taken by surprise by the early election called by Rishi Sunak and did not have time to stand as a candidate.Farage is expected to run in Clacton More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Labour Party has turned an attempt by Rishi Sunak to mock them into a viral post that looks like he is endorsing them. The Conservative Party’s latest post on TikTok shows the prime minister explaining “Labour’s policy for our country’s future” on a flipchart.The short video sees him turn over the cover to show a blank page, before capping a pen in his hand, placing it down and walking off-camera.The short video sees Rishi Sunak turn over the flipchart cover to show a blank page More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA Labour candidate for a seat in east London is being investigated over an allegation of sexual harassment.Councillor Darren Rodwell, the leader of Barking and Dagenham Council and Labour’s parliamentary candidate for Barking, has been accused of “inappropriate touching” of an attendee at an event last month.The Independent has seen the details of the allegations made to Labour’s complaints unit by a party member on Friday. It comes after another Labour MP was suspended from the party last week after a complaint about his behaviour.Mr Rodwell’s alleged victim said she met him for a coffee while at an event, believing the meeting was set up to discuss a development in Barking.In the communication to the party, the complainant said: “After 10 to 15 minutes, he started asking personal questions which I was not happy to answer. He was ordering more drinks for himself.“As I was obviously not happy to be present and was looking for a way to leave, he started touching my hands and legs in a sexual way. “He clearly had other ideas about the meeting. He touched my legs and body inappropriately and I’ve made it clear to him that I did not want him to touch me and left the meeting immediately.”The complaint file reads: ”The complainant has received confirmation that an investigator will be contacting her in regards to the allegations.”Labour has declined to comment on what it calls an ongoing disciplinary matter, however, the allegation now raises questions over whether Mr Rodwell will still be allowed to stand in the election.Last week, former Brighton Kemptown MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle was suspended by the party over “historic allegations” and prevented from standing as a candidate.The Independent has also contacted Mr Rodwell but has not received a response.Rodwell with Sadiq Khan during the London mayor’s reelection campaign this year More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailKemi Badenoch stumbled over how her plans to overhaul equality laws would work if the Conservatives win the general election.The women and equalities minister has promised to redefine the legal definition of the term “sex” to mean biological sex and not “redefined meanings of the word”. She has said the shakeup will improve the safety of women and girls in single-sex spaces.Click here for our live coverage of the general election campaign. But, grilled over the specifics of how the changes will be implemented, a tetchy Ms Badenoch floundered and accused BBC presenter Mishal Husain of “trying to trivialise what is a very serious issue”.Kemi Badenoch faced questions about what paperwork would be needed to assign prison places to transgender people More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailDiane Abbott has deleted a tweet accusing Sir Keir Starmer of lying about how much respect he has for her.The veteran Labour MP, who has been at the centre of a storm over whether she would be allowed to stand for the party at the general election, accused Sir Keir of being dishonest in claiming that he has “more respect for Diane than she probably realises”.In an interview with The Observer, the Labour leader said: “Although I disagree with some of what she says, in terms of the battles she’s been through and the terrible insults she has had to rise above, I’ve actually got more respect for Diane than she probably realises…Click here for our live coverage of the general election campaign“She was the first Black woman MP and has always had to fight for everything. She’s not like any other candidate.”Sharing the article in a now-deleted post on X, formerly Twitter, Ms Abbott said: “More lies from Starmer.”Diane Abbott has said she intends to ‘run and win’ as a Labour candidate More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch as Sir Keir Starmer spoke to pitch Labour as the “party of national security” as he sought to draw attention to defence matters during the general election campaign on Monday, 3 June.The Labour leader is expected to meet with forces veterans and party candidates when he campaigns in north west England.He is expected to reaffirm his pledge of a “nuclear deterrent triple lock” and a proposal to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).Rishi Sunak has said that he wants to meet the 2.5 per cent target by 2030 although the opposition party has not outlines its timeline, only clarifying that they will do so when economic conditions allow. The nuclear deterrent triple lock involves a commitment to construct the four new nuclear submarines in Barrow-in-Furness, maintaining Britain’s continuous at-sea deterrent, and the delivery of all future upgrades needed for the submarines to patrol the waters, Labour said. More