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    What Reform’s Runcorn by-election win means for Labour and the Tories

    One story dominates the elections held on May 1 in England: the dramatic Reform surge. The Runcorn and Helsby by-election was a stunning win for Nigel Farage’s party.Labour’s 49th safest seat – supposedly safer than the prime minister’s – was hardly natural Farage territory. The town of Runcorn – Liverpool overspill mainly – makes up 60 per cent of the constituency. Labour won more votes than all other parties combined in the general election of July 2024. Yet less than a year later, Reform has captured the seat, overturning a majority of 14,700 – albeit with the smallest ever by-election majority, beating Labour by just six votes.This has delivered Reform its first woman MP, former Conservative councillor Sarah Pochin. Her arrival brings the party up to five MPs (a sixth having been suspended from the party earlier this year).Do early by-elections matter, with the general election so distant? They can be a signal of what is to come. Since the second world war, Labour has only once retained office at the next general election after losing a seat at a by-election less than one year after forming a government. A narrow loss to the Conservatives in Leyton in 1965 was sandwiched between 1964 and 1966 general election triumphs, but that was the exception to the rule.Reform UK’s Sarah Pochin and party leader Nigel Farage talk to the media after the party won the seat in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election More

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    Wave of retailer hacking incidents ‘a wake-up call’, minister to say

    A wave of cyber attacks should be “a wake-up call” for every business in the country, a senior minister will say.Harrods became the latest high-profile UK retailer to fall victim to hacking in recent days, after a serious ransomware attack on Marks & Spencer forced the company to suspend online orders and halt recruitment.Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden will use a keynote speech to urge companies to treat cyber security “as an absolute priority”.Speaking at the CyberUK conference in Manchester next week, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Mr McFadden will say: “These attacks need to be a wake-up call for every business in the UK.“In a world where the cybercriminals targeting us are relentless in their pursuit of profit – with attempts being made every hour of every day – companies must treat cybersecurity as an absolute priority.“We’ve watched in real time the disruption these attacks have caused, including to working families going about their everyday lives.“It serves as a powerful reminder that just as you would never leave your car or your house unlocked on your way to work, we have to treat our digital shop fronts the same way.”The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) is working closely with affected organisations to fully understand the nature of the attacks, the Government said.M&S confirmed on Thursday it had taken down all job adverts from its careers website while it dealt with the fallout.A message on the site told prospective applicants: “Sorry you can’t search or apply for roles right now, we’re working hard to be back online as soon as possible.”The London-based retailer employs about 65,000 people and has seen its operations disrupted since the Easter weekend.Contactless payments were affected, and click-and-collect services halted, though contactless has since been restored.Meanwhile, the Co-op Group has also been affected by an attempted hack, prompting it to shut down parts of its IT infrastructure.While its shops and funeral services continue to trade, staff have reportedly been instructed to keep cameras on and verify identities during all remote meetings.The Metropolitan Police has launched an investigation into the attack on M&S.Mr McFadden, who led a briefing with national security officials and the NCSC on Friday, will set out the action the Government is taking to boost the country’s cyber protections in his speech.He will say: “We’re modernising the way the state approaches cyber, through the Cyber Security and Resilience Bill. That legislation will bolster our national defences.“It will grant new powers for the Technology Secretary to direct regulated organisations to reinforce their cyber defences. It will require over 1,000 private IT providers to improve their data and network security.“It will require companies to report a wider array of cyber incidents to the NCSC in the future – to help us build a clearer picture of who, and what, hostile actors are targeting.” More

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    From Olympians to Love Island stars: How did famous candidates do in the local elections?

    Local councillors are usually obscure figures, passionate local activists hoping to improve their areas or ambitious party loyalists wanting to climb the electoral ladder. But among the thousands of councillors who stood across the country on Thursday, a few names stood out. From Olympians to former Love Island stars, The Independent looks at whether celebrity power helped the candidates over the line in one of the most unpredictable sets of local elections in British history. Stiliyan PetrovStiliyan Petrov, the son of an ex-Aston Villa and Bulgaria captain of the same name, stood for Reform UK. The premier league player’s son More

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    Tory plotting already underway to replace Kemi Badenoch as leader after local elections disaster

    Senior Tories are already plotting ways to oust Kemi Badenoch after the party’s disastrous local election results.The prospect of the Tories having their fourth leader in less than four years appears to be on the cards, with the party losing hundreds of council seats across England and being almost wiped out in traditionally strong areas for them.The Independent has learnt that discussions were already underway before Thursday’s local elections to find a way to remove her.Kemi Badenoch has seen significant losses in the local elections More

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    Voices: John Rentoul answers your questions on Reform’s rise – and how Labour and the Tories can respond to Farage

    Nigel Farage’s Reform Party has emerged as a significant force in recent elections, following a by-election victory in Runcorn, where Reform’s Sarah Pochin secured a narrow win over Labour. This victory, coupled with a series of gains in local councils and mayoral races, has prompted Farage to declare it a “phenomenal night” for his party, positioning Reform as the new challenger to the Conservatives.While the Tories have been battered by losses, and Labour struggles to restore its popularity, Reform is positioning itself as a fresh alternative for disillusioned voters. As dissatisfaction grows with the two major parties, Farage sees this as an opportunity to replace the Tories as the main opposition, potentially reshaping the political landscape in the coming years.In a live Q&A for The Independent, I answered your questions on whether Farage’s success will endure, the implications of Reform’s rise, and what Labour and the Tories can do to combat the threat of irrelevance. From concerns over Farage’s leadership to the broader implications for British politics, the discussion highlighted the shifting dynamics in the UK political scene.Here’s what you asked during the “Ask Me Anything” event – and how I answered.Q: Are Reform just another flash in the pan?ParcelOfRogueA: All the claims that Farage lacks staying power may be justified, but his great opportunity is that the two established parties are unpopular, and for equally good if not better reasons. As I have written in The Independent today, yesterday’s elections were bad for Labour, but they were even worse for the Tories, because they open up the chance for Farage to eclipse them as the main opposition party. If he can occupy that territory over the next three years, he could turn his lack of government experience to his advantage.Q: How long will Farage’s success last?ThecoldwarguyA: I think Nigel Farage’s success is going to last, mainly because the issue of immigration, which drives so much of his support, is so hard to solve. In by-elections, next year’s local elections, and next year’s elections in Wales and Scotland, he is going to establish himself as a more effective opposition to Labour than the Tories, while continuing to take advantage of the simultaneous unpopularity of the two established parties.Q: With razor-thin margins, what concrete steps can we take to ensure every voice is heard in future elections?futurelsequalonA: You make an interesting point. Imagine if it had been six votes the other way. All the commentary would have been about Farage falling short and the Labour vote being more resilient than was assumed. That is certainly a way of encouraging Labour activists to stick with it…Q: What does Starmer need to do to counter Reform?Robert ElliottA: I think Starmer has to focus on the NHS, immigration and the cost of living. The Labour government is trying to do too much and needs to stick to just those three priorities to convince those voters that it is on their side.Q: Can Reform ever be more than just The Nigel Farage Show?Paul HorganA: That is Reform’s weakness; I have noticed in some focus groups that voters who might otherwise be tempted to vote for Reform are put off by Farage – they think he is a plausible rogue. But being the “Nigel Farage Show” might be enough to overtake the Tories at the next general election.Q: Do you think Farage will step down as Reform leader before the next election, and if not, how will they form a functioning government with inexperienced MPs?SRogersA: I agree that Farage does not have the answers. His manifesto last year was a joke. His solution to the small boats is to go to war with France. But he reflects discontent rather than creating it. He is very good at that, but you are right that he doesn’t always seem to have the temperament to see a plan through, and a government in which he played a part would suffer from lack of experience and teamwork.Some kind of coming together between Reform and the Tories may be inevitable, but they will try to kill each other first, and in the meantime, may hand the next election to Labour.Q: How long is it going to take Starmer to learn that you can’t appease fascism?Angharad‬A: The PM is criticised from both sides. Some say that he shouldn’t emphasise immigration as an issue because he cannot compete with Farage on it, but if he didn’t say that controlling immigration was a priority, he would be accused of being out of touch with the legitimate concerns of the majority of voters. His real problem is that he can’t stop the small boats – neither could the Tory government, and it may be that a Farage government couldn’t either, but Farage has the great advantage of not having been tested.Q: Do you think there will be blowback for Starmer within the party, given he chose not to campaign in Runcorn?A Lal 3000 A: I assume Starmer chose not to campaign in Runcorn because the party advised him that he would lose their votes! He is unpopular and will continue to be until he delivers on the NHS, immigration and the cost of living.Q: Did Labour’s decision to means-test the winter fuel payment plant the seeds for this outcome, knowing Reform would likely capitalise on the resulting resentment?yewhohoA: I think the winter fuel cut became symbolic of a government that seemed out of touch and unsympathetic to what Theresa May called the “just about managing”. It was intended to show Labour’s ability to take tough decisions – in this case, to take a cash handout away from better-off pensioners – but it was poorly targeted, because it also took money away from those on just £12,000 a year who are not entitled to state benefits.Q: Has voting against the government in local council elections ever really “sent a message to the government”?TimCA: Yes, it makes opinion polling real. MPs can fool themselves that opinion polls don’t matter, or don’t really reflect the public’s views, or will change, but they have a reverence for “real votes in real ballot boxes”, because they owe their jobs to them. The opinion polls were bad for Margaret Thatcher in the spring of 1990, but it was the local elections that year that helped tip Tory MPs against her, and she was gone six months later.Q: Is the rise of Reform driven by a sudden increase in racism and xenophobia in Britain, or is it more a result of the growing similarity between the two major parties and their failure to address rising inequalities?enviousA: I wouldn’t have said that either racism/xenophobia or inequality is “growing” in Britain. Britain is one of the most tolerant countries in the world, which is partly why people want to come here, and which is not to say that there isn’t still racism. Statistically, inequality is no worse or better than it has been since the 1990s.I think support for Nigel Farage’s parties, and for Brexit, is mainly an expression of the wish for less immigration, a widespread sentiment that has been badly handled by both Labour and the Tories.These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by John Rentoul at 12pm BST on Friday 2 May. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.For more insight into UK politics, check out John’s weekly Commons Confidential newsletter. The email, exclusive to Independent Premium subscribers, takes you behind the curtain of Westminster. If this sounds like something you would be interested in, head here to find out more. More

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    Local election results live: Reform wins spate of councils as Farage declares ‘beginning of the end’ for Tories

    Nigel Farage speaks following Reform’s by-election victory in Runcorn and Helsby, beating Labour by just six votesNigel Farage’s Reform has this afternoon taken control of seven councils, just hours after dramatically beating Labour in a by-election for Runcorn and Helsby.The party has taken overall majority of Lincolnshire, Staffordshire, Derbyshire, Lancashire, Kent and Nottinghamshire councils, which were all previously Tory-run. Reform has also taken control of Durham County Council, where Labour was previously the biggest party. The local council victories come after Reform’s Sarah Pochin won the Runcorn and Helsby seat, overcoming a Labour majority of more than 14,000 a year ago. Meanwhile, former Conservative minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns was elected for Reform UK as the first Greater Lincolnshire mayor with a majority of almost 40,000 over her former party. Speaking from Durham this afternoon, Mr Farage declared today the “beginning of the end of the Conservative Party”.In three of the other six mayoral contests, Labour took Doncaster, North Tyneside and West of England with the Tories coming third in each. Results are still to come in for Cambridgeshire and Peterborough and Hull and East Yorkshire.Across the local councils the BBC report that Reform has gained 470 councillors. The Conservatives have lost 433, Labour 121.Earlier, Conservative co-chairman Nigel Huddleston defended leader Kemi Badenoch. Speaking on Good Morning Britain, he said: “We took an absolute drubbing at last year’s general election, we lost two-thirds of MPs, and we unfortunately were anticipating pretty big losses today.”Farage: Reform will ‘resist’ having migrants placed in counties it controlsNigel Farage has said that Reform will “resist” having migrants placed “in these counties that we now control”.Speaking from County Durham on Friday afternoon, the Reform UK leader said: “The number of people I’ve met in the north, just so enraged because they get up early in the morning, they go to work, they pay their taxes, and they see young men crossing the English Channel, being dumped into the north of England getting everything for free.”He later added: “It is unfair, it is irresponsible, it is wrong in every way and I don’t believe Starmer has got the guts to deal with it but (…) we at national level have got the guts to deal with it and we will resist central government plonking scores, hundreds of these young men in these counties that we now control.”Alex Croft2 May 2025 15:51 Election results: Where we stand and what is to comeAs dawn broke today, the country woke up to headlines of a Reform victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, overturning a Labour majority of nearly 15,000 votes from less than a year ago.Nigel Farage hailed the result – but it’s not the only to emerge with yesterday also seeing six mayoral contests and 24 local council elections.Here are the results we have so far:Mayoral elections:North Tyneside – Labour hold with Karen Clark beating the second-placed Reform candidate by just 444 votesDoncaster – Labour hold with Ros Jones seeing off the second-placed Reform candidate by 698 votes.West of England – Labour hold with Helen Godwin coming ahead of the second-placed Reform candidates by 5,949 votes.Greater Lincolnshire – Reform win with Dame Andrew Jenkyns beating the second-placed Tory candidate by almost 40,000 votes.Local councils:Northumberland and Warwickshire councils – No overal control Durham, Lincolnshire, Derbyshire, Staffordshire, Lancashire, Kent and Nottinghamshire councils: Reform wins controlCouncillors (gains/losses):Reform: +470Conservative: -433Labour: -121Independent: -21Lib Dem: +81Green: +25Alex Ross2 May 2025 15:34Farage says Reform backers have ‘cleared a very important hurdle’Following news of Reform claiming control of a seventh local council, leader Nigel Farage addressed supporters, and the media, in Durham.He says: “We now have the most expensive energy in the world because of lunatic net zero polices that are deindustrialising Britain.“Let’s be clear: we want to produce our own gas, our own oil, make our own steel, make our own copper wire.“We want to reindustrialise Britain, reindustrialise the north and give men and women well-paid skilled jobs and a sense of pride in their community and what they do.“We can’t do that from Durham County Council, but we can set the markers on how we intend to govern.“You have cleared a very important hurdle today. And next year we’ll clear those hurdles in the Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and I believe, as I think you believe, we really will make history and win the next general election.”Alex Ross2 May 2025 15:31Reform takes control of its seventh local council It’s just been confirmed that Reform has won control of Kent by taking 45 seats on the council – well over the threshold of 41 needed for a majority.Liberal Democrats had 11 seats, Labour two, Greens one and Conservatives one, in a council which they previously controlled with 56 councillors.Nigel Farage says Reform UK had had “the Labour Party for lunch” and “wiped out” the Conservatives in parts of England as local election results rolled in. Nigel Farage says the Tories had been ‘wiped out’ by Reform More

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    Local elections 2025: Live results map for every council and mayor race

    Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has made massive gains in the local elections across England in a series of stunning victories which appear to redraw the political map.The populist rightwing party won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election in dramatic circumstances with a majority of just six following a recount, overturning a majority for Labour of 14,000.It preceded a set of results which saw their candidate Dame Andrea Jenkyns win as mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, where Reform was also on course to win a majority of county council seats too. The party also seized majorities in Staffordshire and Durham inflicting severe pain on both Labour and the Tories.Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has declared that the UK is “no longer a two party system” but has been replaced by a five party one with gains also coming for the Lib Dems and Greens.Follow our live updates on the local elections here. However, in a terrible night for the Tories and Labour both parties appeared to be set to make significant losses.The results could leave serious question marks over Kemi Badenoch’s leadership of the Conservative Party if they are left with no real heartlands across the UK.A rare bright spot for the Tories came the party’s candidate in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoralty Paul Bristow was declared a narrow winner taking28 per cent of the vote, beating the second-place Reform candidate Ryan Coogan, who had 23 per cent.But the results also unleashed almost 10 months of pent up frustration from senior Labour figures against prime minister Sir Keir Starmer who was being blamed for the electoral disaster.Farage’s party also appeared to be on the verge of winning the mayoral race in Hull and East Yorkshire with former Olympic boxer Luke Campbell in what appeared to be a seismic shift in voting across Britain. Reform was also expected to make major gains in Kent.The problems they had with the row over ousting Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe appeared to be a distant memory for Farage and Reform as they swept hundreds of seats across England and were the biggest party inn this round of elections.However, with turnouts often at less than 30 per cent, opponents of Reform were able to cling on to hope that disillusionment and apathy had opened the door for Farage’s party which would not translate into a general election.Nevertheless a jubilant Mr Farage said: “For the movement, for the party, it’s a very, very big moment indeed, absolutely, no question, and it’s happening right across England.”He said it was a sign that Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer had “alienated so much of his traditional base, it’s just extraordinary”. However, Labour said by-elections are “always difficult for the party in government”, and the events surrounding the Runcorn and Helsby vote made it “even harder”.The prime minister himself attempted to avoid questions on the results as he visited a defence contractor in Bedfordshire.But asked about the results by Sky News, he said: “The message I take away from these results is we must deliver change even more quickly, we must go even further. I’ve believed for some time that’s the case, and reinforced in these results that that’s what we’ve got to do.”Party chairwoman Ellie Reeves acknowledged voters were “impatient”, but insisted “change takes time”. She suggested Reform would face greater scrutiny after its electoral gains.”We’ve had to stabilise the economy, but we’re starting that work. We’ve got our Plan for Change, we’re beginning to see the results of this, but we know we need to go further and faster,” she told Times Radio.But Doncaster’s victorious Labour mayor Ros Jones – who was re-elected with a majority of 698 after a battle with Reform – hit out at the prime minister’s administration. She criticised decisions to means-test the winter fuel allowance, hike employers’ national insurance contributions and squeeze welfare.Ms Jones told the BBC: “I think the results here tonight will demonstrate that they need to be listening to the man, woman and businesses on the street, and actually deliver for the people, with the people.”Anger over taking the winter fuel payment from 10 million pensioners, slashing benefits for the disabled and hiking taxes on businesses were blamed for the catastrophic results for Labour.Union bosses blamed chancellor Rachel Reeves’ austerity. National Education Union (NEU) general secretary Daniel Kebede said Tory austerity has ended in words not deeds.“People voted for change last year. The change they got was cuts to the winter fuel allowance, cheap bus fares and disability benefits,” he said. Former Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell – now an independent MP after he was forced out of the party for opposing the two child benefit cap – hit out at the party’s response to the results so far as “tin-eared”.Mr McDonnell said on social media: “Labour supporters feel Labour, their party, has turned its back on them citing Winter Fuel Allowance, NI tax on jobs & threat of disability cuts.“Message to ministers is drop the plans to attack [the] disabled.”In her speech after winning Runcorn, Ms Pochin, a former Conservative councillor, said voters had made clear “enough is enough”.The Tories meanwhile were trying to limit the damage and made it clear they would not be forced into a deal with Reform. Previously, shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick who some believe is angling to be leader, had been recorded saying that a deal was inevitable. But as the results came in co-chairman Nigel Huddleston insisted there could be no deal with a party “whose aim is to destroy the Conservative Party”.He went on: “Kemi’s position is certainly solid. She’s only been leader for six months and she was out and about right across the country, and I can tell you this, everywhere we went, people wanted to see her more and hear more from her.”Pressed on his use of the word “solid”, Mr Huddleston said: “I say that in a really positive way.” She’s very sensible, she’s very honest, she’s very straightforward. “She doesn’t go around telling people what they want to hear. That’s the easy route in politics.”Meanwhile, Ms Badenoch has tried to play down the electoral catastrophe for her party as it loses hundreds of seats and faces the onward march of Reform.In a statement she said: “These were always going to be a very difficult set of elections coming off the high of 2021, and our historic defeat last year – and so it’s proving. The renewal of our party has only just begun and I’m determined to win back the trust of the public and the seats we’ve lost, in the years to come.”The Lib Dems made gains but failed in their bid to win Devon County Council, although they displaced the Tories as the biggest party.Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said: “Last year the Liberal Democrats won a record number of MPs and became the largest third party in 100 years. Now we are on course for our seventh year of local election gains, making this our best ever winning streak.”Mayoral electionsResults have been declared for four out of six mayoral races, with two more coming later today.Labour have held onto mayoral positions in the West of England, Doncaster, and North Tyneside.Meanwhile Reform has taken its first mayor in Greater Lincolnshire, where former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns won the race.This year is the first time that voters decide newly-created mayoral positions in Greater Lincolnshire, and Hull & East Yorkshire.The two outstanding results will be in this afternoon.Runcorn and Helsby by-election: Reform wins by a hairlineLabour took a devastating blow in Runcorn and Helsby by-election, where its former MP Mike Amesbury stood down after punching a constituent. Reform won by just six votes, or 0.02 per cent, ahead of Labour in the nail-biting race.The seat was won by Sarah Pochin, who will be Reform’s fifth MP in parliament. Previously, Labour held the seat for more than 40 years.This was the first parliamentary by-election for Labour since last year’s general election; and polls show their national popularity decreasing by over 10 per cent since then.Maps and results with input from Election Maps UK. More

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    Andrea Jenkyns: The opera-singing ex-Tory MP’s journey from working in Greggs to a radical Reform UK mayor

    Just a week ago Dame Andrea Jenkyns still did not know whether she would be ruled eligible to stand to be mayor of Greater Lincolnshire.But now, with the question marks over her residency status still hanging over her, the former Tory MP turned Reform defector is suggesting putting migrants in tents and stopping energy secretary Ed Miliband covering East Anglia’s fields with solar panels.But the events of the last seven days are not unusual for a rightwing politician who has courted controversy in a headstrong political career which has given her opponents plenty of ammunition.Whether it is flipping the bird at protesters outside Downing Street while going in to mark Boris Johnson’s departure as prime minister, or ending Ed Balls’ political career, Dame Andrea has never been far from the drama.Andrea Jenkyns arrives at the count More