UK

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak was warned today that his culture war strategy will “not save the Tories” as Sir Keir Starmer brutally mocked him in prime minister’s questions (PMQs) as “a jumped up milk monitor”.The Labour leader went on the attack over plans to ban “rainbow lanyards” in the civil service, as leading pollsters questioned the Tory strategy as the government unveiled plans to ban explicit sex education in schools until children turn 13, and all gender identity lessons.This latest foray into the culture wars followed a major speech on Monday by the common sense minister Esther McVey unveiling new civil service rules to end so-called “woke activism” in Whitehall and other departments, including an attempt to ban rainbow lanyards.Added to that ministers also unveiled new stop and search powers for police to tackle knife crime.The new strategy comes after the Techne UK weekly tracker poll recently showed Labour’s lead increase to 24 points over the Tories in the wake of Dover MP Natalie Elphicke’s defection over the small boats crisis. Pollsters told The Independent that the strategy would not work and Mr Sunak needs to somehow get his message on the economy over to voters instead.Rishi Sunak has appeared to turn to a culture war strategy More

Sunak in ‘war against lanyards’, Starmer jokes after rainbow colours banned in civil serviceSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak faced off against Sir Keir Starmer in the first PMQs since ENatalie Elphicke’s defection last week. The Prime Minister was branded by Starmer a “jumped up-milk monitor” obsessed with “confiscating lanyards”. The Labour leader accused the PM of trying to grant high-risk criminals early release, but Mr Sunak told MPs serious offenders would not be freed from jail early as part of a Government bid to cut overcrowding.The SNP’s Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn, demanded that Sunak apologises for comparing Scottish people to war criminal Vladimir Putin. PMQs came amid a fresh crackdown on culture war issues, with a ban to be introduced on children under nine being taught sex education and about gender identity. Policing minister Chris Philp said the new measures are expected to come into force soon. Speaking today, he also called on police forces to increase the use of stop and search as part of tougher measures to tackle knife crime. Show latest update 1715784702PM’s sex education plan to spark homophobia in schools, critics say Salma Ouaguira15 May 2024 15:511715784109Rishi Sunak ‘shocked’ by Slovak PM shooting The incident took place in the town of Handlova, some 150 kilometres northeast of the capital Bratislava, after a government meeting.Rishi Sunak has taken to social media to send his support to the Slovak PM. Salma Ouaguira15 May 2024 15:411715783519’Sex education restriction is ill-informed and war noise,’ schools’ unions sayThe National Education says there are many areas of concern in the new sex education restrictions.The crackdown hasn’t been well received among unions who claim education about sex and about positive relationships is already being delivered in an age-appropriate way. The Union’s general secretary Daniel Kebede has accused the “ill-informed” PM of causing culture war noise. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s government is reported to be planning a ban on children being taught about gender identity and having “explicit” conversations about sex before the age of 13.In an apparent doubling down on so-called culture war issues, the government is reportedly set to publish new guidance on when children should be offered sex education, with schools required to provide parents with samples of the material their children will be taught.The guidance will tell teachers to focus on “biological” facts about sex and will warn that ministers view gender identity as a contested subject, and will ban all sex education until year five, when children are aged nine or over, according to a series of reports.The government is reportedly set to publish new guidance on when children should be offered sex education More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSir Keir Starmer is under fresh pressure to scrap the two-child benefit cap if he becomes prime minister after Gordon Brown said it is condemning children to live in poverty.The former Labour prime minister lashed out at the “inequities” of the policy and said it “should be scrapped” before the next general election.But his call also piles pressure on Labour, which is currently backing the policy despite criticism. Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting told The Independent that Labour would inherit a difficult set of public finances but would work to bringing down child poverty.Sir Keir Starmer has said he will maintain the two-child benefit cap More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailUnemployment benefits are being used as a “lifestyle choice” rather than a “safety net” by some, ministers have warned as they said there is “ample opportunity” for those who want jobs to find them.Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and work and pensions secretary Mel Stride said the economy is doing “far better than many would have you believe” and told people out of work there is no good reason to languish on benefits.In a joint op-ed for The Times, the pair acknowledged the challenge of long-term sickness, which stands at a record 2.8m – almost 800,000 higher than pre-Covid levels.Jeremy Hunt said there is ‘ample opportunity’ for the unemployed to find work More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak pledged that “more will change in the next five years than in the last 30” in a pre-election speech to voters on Monday, placing heavy emphasis on defence and security commitments.It was the latest relaunch in a series of attempts to rebrand the Conservative party and Mr Sunak’s premiership, after multiple cabinet reshuffles in the past year and a stunning loss of seats in the local elections.This isn’t the first time that Mr Sunak has promised change to voters. In January 2023, Mr Sunak addressed the public in a major speech, making five ambitious pledges for the year including economic measures, reducing NHS waiting lists and efforts to “stop the boats”.“People don’t want politicians who promise the earth and then fail to deliver,” said Sunak.The PM outlined these targets in the midst of record-high inflation rates, huge strains on the public health service, and mass increases in English Channel crossings, pledging:“We will either have achieved them or not. No tricks, no ambiguity: we’re either delivering for you or we’re not.”But how many promises were actually delivered by the end of 2023, and which have failed to meet the mark?While the PM met certain targets – such as slashing inflation – but continues to miss key healthcare goals, Mr Sunak’s approval ratings have only worsened over 2023, according to YouGov. Let’s see how the PM is addressing key targets for the economy, NHS, and migration.1. Halve inflationThe PM first pledged to halve inflation in a bid to ease the cost of living crisis and “give people financial security”.The commitment to halve inflation in 2023 was successful. However, the cost of living is still being felt by many Brits.With a benchmark of around 5.4 per cent (half of 10.7 per cent at the end of 2022), inflation settled comfortably below this number, ending at 4.0 per cent in December 2023, according to data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS).While inflation has been reduced, other key factors which contribute to the cost of living are slower to improve. The inflation rate for food and beverages is still at 7 per cent, according to ONS data, while private rental prices have continued to soar at 9 per cent higher from February 2023 to 2024.Nonetheless, inflation has continued to slowly shrink this year, with latest data at 3.2 per cent in March. This is still above the current Bank of England target of 2 per cent.Linear progress is not guaranteed; inflation went up from 3.9 per cent to 4 per cent from November to December, and stayed stagnant at 4 per cent in January this year.2. Grow the economyWhile Mr Sunak’s promise to “grow the economy” is intentionally vague in terms of its targets, by many standards, economic growth has not been substantially achieved.According to ONS data, the UK economy was stagnant or shrank for most of 2023, ending at a minor recession of -0.3 per cent in the final quarter of the year.Although 2024 looks more positive so far, at 0.6 per cent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in Q1, this minute uptick in growth can hardly be considered a marker of  substantial economic growth.3. Reduce debt Mr Sunak promised to “make sure our national debt is falling”. In real terms, UK debt has not fallen and in fact continues to accumulate.The UK’s debt pile has reached £2.7 trillion, up by nearly £200 billion from January 2023. As a proportion of GDP, debt has also continued to rise, exceeding the total GDP at 101.3 per cent.Debt within 2023 alone exceeded the £114.1 billion prediction from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), reaching £120.7 billion for the year.Yet the government specifically pledged to reduce forecasted debt in the next five years (2028-29), meaning that this possibility is still on the cards.Treasurer Jeremy Hunt maintains that a debt reduction in 2028-29 is on track since the OBR has forecasted a fall in 2028-29, but this estimate is subject to change.4. Cut waiting listsDespite promising that “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly’”, Mr Sunak has failed by his own admission, according to an interview on TalkTV in February 2024.NHS data shows that the number of patients waiting for non-emergency treatment is at 7.54m as of March 2024, around 300,000 (4.5 per cent) higher than when Sunak pledged to cut waits in January 2023.Around a third (29 per cent) of these cases have been waiting for more than six months, and children’s waiting times have been even slower to improve.However, the health services have also faced a tumultuous string of strikes during this period which impact waiting times, as NHS consultants rejected government pay offers in January.While the wait list remained unchanged from February, the figure has been bouncing up and down for the past few months, after a record-high 7.77m backlog for treatments in September 2023.5. ‘Stop the boats’ The PM said the government will “pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed”.Since then, he has doubled down on his pledge to tackle illegal migration, passing the Illegal Migration Bill in July 2023.Amidst a heated parliamentary back-and-forth between the Commons and the Lords, the UK has designated Rwanda as a safe destination for deporting illegal migrants, though the contentious plan will likely continue to face challenges.But has he managed to stop the boats? In 2023, there were less small boat crossings across the English Channel than in 2022, down by over a third to 29,437 – but the reasons for the drop are not clear-cut. A Met Office report prepared for the Border Force and later made public following an Freedom of Information request suggested bad weather may have played a part in the lower number of migrant crossings. It is unclear exactly to what extent government policy has acted as a deterrent.Some 7,567 people were detected crossing the English Channel from January to April 2024, a new record for the first four months of a calendar year.The total is 27 per cent higher than the number of arrivals in the first four months of 2023, which was 5,946, and 13 per cent higher than the number in the first four months of 2022, which was 6,691. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders is on the verge of brokering a four-party coalition in the Netherlands six months after coming in first in national elections, opening the prospect that yet another European Union nation will veer toward the hard right weeks ahead of EU-wide elections. Wilders has said he does not expect to become prime minister himself, because he remains too extreme for his coalition partners, but his Party for Freedom would be the driving force in a four-party coalition. With hard right and populist parties now part of or leading a half dozen governments in the 27-nation bloc, they appear positioned to make gains in the June 6-9 EU polls. “I hope we will get there. I think we will get there. I cannot see it going wrong,” Wilders told the broadcaster NOS early Wednesday after the four parties reached a deal on government financing, the last major stumbling bloc in the talks. It remains unclear who will become prime minister. “That is still crucial. If you want a government to succeed, you need a prime minister that unites,” said Pieter Omtzigt, leader of the centrist New Social Contract party. Outgoing prime minister Mark Rutte’s center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy and the populist Farmer Citizen Movement are also in the coalition talks. Wilders’ Party for Freedom won 37 seats in the 150-seat lower house of the Dutch parliament, and the four parties combined hold a comfortable majority of 88 seats. After two decades in the opposition, Wilders seemed to have a shot at leading a nation that long prided itself on its tolerant society, but he has stepped aside in the interests of pushing through most of his agenda.From Finland to Croatia, hard-line right parties are part of European governing coalitions, and hard right prime ministers are leading Hungary, Slovakia and Italy. More