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Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s position as leader of the Tories and Prime Minister is in the balance as voters delivered a damning verdict on his government in the crucial local elections yesterday.With a general election just months away, Conservative MPs are privately discussing whether to force a vote of no confidence in their leader as the dire poll predictions appear to have been born out at the ballot box this week.With counts still ongoing across the country, the Tories are on course to lose more than 500 of the council seats they were defending with 122 confirmed losses by 8am. Labour had picked up more than 100 gains with party leader Sir Keir Starmer describing the results as “seismic”.Polling guru Prof Sir John Curtice hailed the Blackpool result as “spectacular” and told Radio 4’s Today that they “confirm” the terrible polls for the Tories over the last year.Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is suffering heavy losses at Thursday’s local elections (Henry Nicholls/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLondoners went to the polls on Thursday, 2 May to elect a mayor and 25 London Assembly members. Around six million people were registered to vote in this year’s election, which decides who will be in charge of the capital for the next four years. The ballot boxes were moved from more than 3,600 polling stations across the capital, staffed by around 12,000 people, to 14 counting centres in the city overnight.But the results are unlikely to be declared until late on Saturday, as verification of the votes does not start until Friday morning at 9am.Counting of the votes then starts at 9am on Saturday, with three ballot papers needing to be counted.The mayoral votes will be counted first, followed by the constituency London Assembly members, and then the London-wide Assembly members.The first results should emerge around midday and it is thought the winner may be clear by as early as 1.30pm on Saturday. But the official announcement is expected to take place in the late afternoon or evening at City Hall – and could be pushed back if there are any delays.This year there was a new voting system, first past the post (FPTP), similar to what is used in general elections. In previous mayoral elections voters could make a first and second choice for mayor, however this time people only received one vote.The London mayoral candidates were officially announced on Thursday 28 March, with 13 candidates running for office. Here are all the candidates below.Sadiq Khan – Labour PartySadiq Khan More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAs an alleged right-wing plot to replace Rishi Sunak with Penny Mordaunt made the headlines this week, we asked you who you thought should take the reins of the Tory Party.The discussion centred on the UK’s general political landscape, with Independent readers expressing their disillusionment with all the major parties, pointing to failures in governance, broken promises, and a detachment from public interests.Criticism, however, was mainly squared at Tory leadership since 2010 — from David Cameron to Rishi Sunak and from Theresa May to Boris Johnson.As for future prospects, Penny Mordaunt’s potential leadership was questioned, with concerns about her voting record and lack of experience for the role of Prime Minister.Overall, there was a compelling mood of discontent towards the current political climate, with a call for meaningful change and accountability.Here’s what you had to say:‘The Tories are the past’It does not really matter who is Tory leader. The party will lose badly whenever the election is called. I personally will not vote for the party whoever they have as leader. A lot of voters are simply turned off our politicians so who leads a particular party is of no interest. We want our public services fixed, and be made to feel there is hope for the future. The Tories whether under Sunak or someone else are the past. I personally have no enthusiasm for Labour. I am hearing far too little that will differentiate them from what the current government has done or said. I live in a safe Labour seat so I will not be adding to their majority. Mine will be a third-party vote as it has been for the past 50 years.49niner‘Corruption and dodgy deals have become the standard’Nobody can save the Tory party if the electorate comes to its senses! They’ve caused misery for so many and still are. Brexit has torn through UK society. The instigator of that – a weak PM who hoped to solve his internal party problems is now prancing around the world as foreign secretary, despite having run away after losing to the right wing anti-EU brigade factions. The Tories have underfunded and run down all the essential services in the UK. People pulling their own teeth out who can’t see a dentist, cancer patients unable to see doctors, schools underfunded and the education system failing so many. Infrastructure: roads, transport, school buildings and hospitals crumbling not to mention the shortage of affordable housing. Serious crime, particularly in the cities seemingly out of control. Then there’s the total mishandling of the migrant issue. Crazy schemes going nowhere. Their Rwanda scheme doing nothing more than confirming the UK’s pariah status as it intends to ignore international law. Their sole focus has been on greater enrichment of themselves and their friends. Corruption and dodgy deals have become the standard. Lies flow freely and many government ministers have been promoted to jobs way above their ability. Doing jobs they know little or nothing about. The electorate can only watch on as they fly around the world in their private jets and helicopters feeling important and feeding their ego as children go hungry and the only growth industry (if you can call it that) is food banks!Ambigirls‘It’ll take a miracle to save the Tories’As Penny Mordaunt has worked as a magician’s assistant, she could try to use those same skills to try to assist the Tory party from defeat. But seriously it’s going to take more than magic and conjuring tricks to stem prospective Tory losses. Sunak has been trying to pull the same old rabbits out of hats like coshing immigration and stamping out benefit scroungers to get a few voters on his side. But it hasn’t generated the same excitement it might have done; voters are a little more sophisticated than they used to be, which means pulling the wool over their eyes isn’t as easy. The polls stand at 20% for the Tories, 46% for Labour. It’ll take a miracle to save the Tories. It’s too late to oust Sunak even if anyone at this late stage were interested in replacing him. Many are intending to leave, around 67 MPs have given notice. Now what about the Tories on the other side of the House like Starmer, Reeve, Steering?Benitas‘Tory assault on human rights’My lasting memory of Mordaunt will be when she became disabilities minister, this was at a time when the disabled were being vilified and ‘tortured’ by the Tories. In all the time she was the minister I checked very carefully at what she was doing, or not, all I could find that she actually did was to be on a swimming-based TV show and then auction off her swimsuit. At this time the Government was twice found guilty of breaching the human rights of the disabled by our own High Courts and subsequently sanctioned by the UN for this. We are all surely now aware of the Tory assault on all our human rights. Human rights that are being consistently eroded under 14 years of Tory Governments. In fact, it was one of May’s 2017 campaign pledges to take away everyone’s human rights, something she tried to do twice.TomSnout‘Concerning state of affairs’The political system in our country is broken. The Labour, Conservative, and Lib Dem parties no longer represent the interests of those who elected them. The Labour Party, once known for supporting working people, now have disdain for them. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party are a shambles. As for the Lib Dems, they are little more than a punchline. It’s a concerning state of affairs when the major political parties fail to connect with or adequately serve the people they’re supposed to represent.”AndrewAndrew‘Sunak is probably the best they have left’In 2010 our nation was in a reasonable state and fed up with New Labour. The coalition kept things up, but austerity didn’t do the nation good. Many other nations tried austerity, but abandoned it sooner or later as ineffective. Cameron/Osborne lacked the intellect to change tack. May tried to square the circle of a ‘damage free Brexit’ and failed. Then the decline set in seriously. Johnson couldn’t be bothered to govern. He was in it for the glamour alone. Truss/Kwarteng brought in Cloud Cuckoo economics. Then finally the Tories selected a halfway competent PM, but they needed a brilliant one, ergo he failed.Does the Parliamentary Conservative Party have anyone among them whohis more than halfway competent? No, they have not. Boris Johnson chased all those away before the 2019 elections. Sunak is probably the best they have left and he has shown to be grossly inadequate. The Tories are toast.RebootedyetagainHans2‘Why not let them all fall into the fissure?’The Tories have always had a fissure running right down their middle. When they start warring then it’s the electorate that ends up paying the bill. Why not let them all fall into the fissure?Mark_My_Words‘All in the same camp’Penny Mordaunt’s USP is that she appears more relatable and less swivel-eyed loon than her probable fellow contenders. Of course, that’s a relative comparison. A cursory examination of her voting record reveals her right-wing sympathies: Almost always voted for a reduction in spending on welfare benefits. Almost always voted against paying higher benefits over longer periods for those unable to work due to illness or disability. Consistently voted for making local councils responsible for helping those in financial need afford their council tax and reducing the amount spent on such support. Generally voted for reducing housing benefit for social tenants deemed to have excess bedrooms (which Labour describe as the ‘bedroom tax’) Generally voted against raising welfare benefits at least in line with prices. Generally voted against increasing the state pension age for women more slowly. Consistently voted for increasing the state pension age. Ms Mordaunt may not signal quite the same obvious repugnance as Braverman, Badenoch, Patel et al, but she’s definitely in the same camp.PinkoRadical‘Actual hydrogen balloons’Mordaunt is a working-class conservative who is socially more liberal than the ERG/UKIP tendency. Since Cameron, the Conservatives have reliably chosen, not so much lightweights, more actual hydrogen balloons. From that point of view Mordaunt would be an improvement. But she does not have anything like the experience to be PM. When you look at past Conservative PMs, Churchill had a vast depth of experience in cabinet roles, Heath was extremely intelligent, but Thatcher had constantly to come up with stunts to stay in power – monetarism, taking on the miners, the Falklands, selling council houses off cheap to potential Conservative voters, supporting Gorbachev – and then fell foul of the poll tax, a major misjudgement aimed at keeping retired single occupant Conservative voters happy and taxing council house tenants with children living at home. Mordaunt would be subject to enormous pressure from the barking right which she lacks the experience and depth of support to resist, which is presumably why they want her. Her job would be to lose the election so she could be replaced by a headbanger, especially if she loses her seat.If she declines, she has a chance of becoming leader of the opposition and feeling her way into the role against a demoralised Conservative Right – provided she keeps her seat.Erbium‘Bottom of the barrel’Given the fact the bottom of the barrel has been scraped so hard and so frequently (only to come up with dross) I suggest installing an AI instance. It would be unlike ‘real’ politicians as it’s been fed with data and opinions of thousands of people; not just the ones that allegedly have a fat wad of cash to wave around. Based on that, we might even get some reasonable decisions!Rittnorf‘PM4PM’You mean like Cameron did. Then May. Then Johnson. Then Truss. Then Sunak. What makes Mordant a more viable alternative? PM4PM…catchy slogan. But then Johnson had a similar catchy slogan…BJ4PM.SWPete‘Dire smorgasbord of incompetence’None of the pictured candidates would save the Tories or make a credible Prime Minister. Past performances at the dispatch box suggest that Mordaunt would make the most effective leader of the opposition but she is not certain to retain her seat. Opting for any right wing candidate will bring the Tories even more into conflict with a buoyant Reform Party. That’s a battle worth fighting only if they can win it and be assured that the right wing bandwagon that some parts of the electorate are signed up to will become more widespread. That’s the logical assessment but if we’ve learnt anything from this iteration of the Conservative Party it’s that all logic goes out of the window as blind panic overtakes reason. So in reality any of this dire smorgasbord of incompetence could be parachuted in to replace Sunak!MythicalkingSome of the comments have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.All you have to do is sign up, submit your question and register your details – then you can then take part in the discussion. You can also sign up by clicking ‘log in’ on the top right-hand corner of the screen.Make sure you adhere to our community guidelines, which can be found here. For a full guide on how to comment click here. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA former Tory cabinet minister has accused the Conservative mayoral candidate for London of “gutter politics” following her controversial campaign.Former Conservative party chair and peer Sayeeda Warsi criticised mayoral candidate Susan Hall, who has been acccused of divisive politics and Islamophobia.Baroness Warsi – who served as Tory chair between 2010 and 2012 – said on X/Twitter: “Why is it that with every London Mayoral election we manage to find a candidate worse than the last and manage to sink that little bit more into gutter politics. “Look @andy4wm [Tory West Midlands mayor Andy Street] and learn @Conservatives – how inclusive and decent politics can be done. Be more #Street and less #Susan.”Mr Street’s mayorality is on a knife-edge as voters in the West Midlands went to the polls on Thursday. With the results of key mayoral contests yet to be declared, one Tory MP told The Independent that a move against Mr Sunak is “likely” if either Mr Street or Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen lose their jobs.Speaking on his Political Currency podcast, former chancellor George Osborne said: “If Andy Street loses in the West Midlands, that’s pretty bad …[but] If Ben Houchen loses it will be armageddon – because at that point, people will say, ‘We are absolutely headed now for a massive landslide defeat’.”Baroness Warsi has slammed the Tory candidate for London mayor More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe UK’s top election expert has said the Conservatives could lose up to 500 seats in what is looking like their worst performance in four decades at the local elections.Polling guru Professor John Curtice said that the results far thus far – including the Blackpool South by-election – has meant “we’re probably looking at certainly one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performance in local government elections for the last 40-years”.Sir John said that the Tories look likely to lose around half of the seats they are defending, around 500.Asked if that result would be “catastrophic” for the party, he told Radio 4’s Today programme: “Not far short of it. I am not sure I would quite go that far but let’s put it together. Blackpool South, the third biggest swing in post-war by-election history, and the point is it is not an isolated event.“This is now the fifth parliamentary by-election in which we have seen swings of over 20 per cent from Conservative to Labour. The last time we had swings of that size with any degree of regularity was the 92-97 parliament. Tony Blair didn’t get as many as that and we know what happened in 1997.“The local elections, of course the Conservatives, as they have rightly been pointing out, were defending a very high baseline, losses did seem inevitable.“But so far they are basically losing a half of the seats they are trying to defend. If that continues they may end up losing 500 or so seats which was the thing they were meant to avoid.”Sir John’s comments come as the Conservatives are bracing themselves for yet more disappointment as the results from the local council elections trickle in.Labour has also hailed a “seismic” by-election win in Blackpool South. Labour took the seat from the Conservatives with 58.9 per cent of the vote share.Labour’s candidate Chris Webb received 10,825 votes, with the Tories trailing far behind with just 3,218 and Reform behind with just 3,218.Sir Keir Starmer said Labour’s win, in the contest to replace ousted Tory MP Scott Benton, was “truly historic” and the “most important result” nationally.Counting is under way in the 107 councils in England that held elections on Thursday, with the first results declared overnight and more to come later on Friday. Thus far, Labour have the key battlegrounds of Hartlepool, Redditch, Sunderland and Thurrock.Sir John Curtice warned the Conservative party against taking comfort in any wins in Teesside and West Mids More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe UK’s top election expert has said the Conservatives could lose up to 500 seats in what is looking like their worst performance in four decades at the local elections.Polling guru Professor John Curtice said that the results far thus far – including the Blackpool South by-election – has meant “we’re probably looking at certainly one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performance in local government elections for the last 40-years”.Sir John said that the Tories look likely to lose around half of the seats they are defending, around 500.Asked if that result would be “catastrophic” for the party, he told Radio 4’s Today programme: “Not far short of it. I am not sure I would quite go that far but let’s put it together. Blackpool South, the third biggest swing in post-war by-election history, and the point is it is not an isolated event.“This is now the fifth parliamentary by-election in which we have seen swings of over 20 per cent from Conservative to Labour. The last time we had swings of that size with any degree of regularity was the 92-97 parliament. Tony Blair didn’t get as many as that and we know what happened in 1997.“The local elections, of course the Conservatives, as they have rightly been pointing out, were defending a very high baseline, losses did seem inevitable.“But so far they are basically losing a half of the seats they are trying to defend. If that continues they may end up losing 500 or so seats which was the thing they were meant to avoid.”Sir John’s comments come as the Conservatives are bracing themselves for yet more disappointment as the results from the local council elections trickle in.Labour has also hailed a “seismic” by-election win in Blackpool South. Labour took the seat from the Conservatives with 58.9 per cent of the vote share.Labour’s candidate Chris Webb received 10,825 votes, with the Tories trailing far behind with just 3,218 and Reform behind with just 3,218.Sir Keir Starmer said Labour’s win, in the contest to replace ousted Tory MP Scott Benton, was “truly historic” and the “most important result” nationally.Counting is under way in the 107 councils in England that held elections on Thursday, with the first results declared overnight and more to come later on Friday. Thus far, Labour have the key battlegrounds of Hartlepool, Redditch, Sunderland and Thurrock.Sir John Curtice warned the Conservative party against taking comfort in any wins in Teesside and West Mids More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Britain’s governing Conservative Party is suffering heavy losses as local election results pour in Friday, piling pressure on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ahead of a U.K. general election in which the main opposition Labour Party appears increasingly likely to return to power after 14 years.Labour won control of councils in England it hasn’t held for decades and was successful in a special by-election for Parliament. Its only negative appears to have been in some areas with large Muslim populations where the party’s candidates suffered as a result of leader Keir Starmer ‘s strongly pro-Israel stance in the conflict in Gaza.Labour won Blackpool South, a long-time Labour seat in the northwest of England that went Conservative in the last general election in 2019, when then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a big victory. In the contest, triggered by the resignation of a Conservative lawmaker following a lobbying scandal, Labour’s Chris Webb secured 10,825 votes, 7,607 more than his second-placed Conservative opponent.“This seismic win in Blackpool South is the most important result today,” Starmer said. “This is the one contest where voters had the chance to send a message to Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives directly, and that message is an overwhelming vote for change.”Thursday’s elections were important in themselves, with voters deciding who will run many aspects of their daily lives, such as garbage collection, road maintenance and local crime prevention, in the coming years. But with a general election looming, they will be viewed through a national prism.The results so far provide more evidence that Labour is likely to form the next government — and by quite a margin — and that Starmer will become prime minister. As of early Friday, with barely a quarter of the 2,661 seats up for grabs counted, the Conservatives were down 115 while Labour was up 60.The results will roll in through Saturday. Sunak hopes he can point to successes, notably in several key mayoral races, to douse talk that the Conservative Party will change its leader again before the United Kingdom’s main election, which could take place as soon as next month. Key to his survival could be the results of mayoral elections in Tees Valley in the northeast of England and in the West Midlands. The former is due Friday lunchtime and the latter on Saturday. Should Conservative mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen hold on, he may win some respite from restive lawmakers in his party. Should both lose, he may face trouble. Labour’s Sadiq Khan is expected to remain mayor of London when results are announced on Saturday..Sunak could preempt any challenge by threatening to call a general election that has to take place before January 2025. He has the power to decide on the date and has indicated that it will be in the second half of 2024. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak is facing a make-or-break 48 hours as some Tory MPs plot to engineer his downfall even as the local election results in England are still being counted.The chances of the prime minister facing a vote of no confidence from his MPs were heightened on Thursday when the latest YouGov poll revealed the party is even less popular under his leadership than during the calamitous premiership of Liz Truss.According to the survey, taken on 30 April and 1 May, the Conservatives are down to just 18 per cent – 26 points behind Labour on 44 per cent and a mere three points ahead of Reform UK on 15 per cent.If this were repeated in a general election, the Tories would be reduced to 32 seats with Sir Keir Starmer holding a majority of 388, according to prediction site Electoral Calculus.There was further bad news from a Techne UK poll of 1,632 voters, partly taken during polling day, which put Labour on 44 per cent and the Tories on 22 per cent. The survey data revealed that only 43 per cent of those who backed the Tories in the 2019 election would do so at the next general election.Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is forecast to suffer heavy losses in Thursday’s local elections More