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Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Millions of voters in England and Wales will cast their ballots on Thursday in an array of local elections that will be the last big test before a U.K. general election that all indicators show will see the Conservative Party ousted from power after 14 years.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will hope he can point to successes, notably in a couple of key mayoral races, to douse talk that the Conservative Party will change leader again before the United Kingdom’s main election, which could take place as soon as next month. On the other hand, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer will hope Thursday’s local elections confirm what opinion polls have shown for two years — that Labour is on course for power for the first time since 2010.“The national context going into these local elections is very good for Labour and very bad for the Conservatives,” said Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester. As is often the case in British local elections, the run-up is about expectation management, so any outperformance can be painted as a success. That’s certainly the case with the Conservatives, who are widely predicted to lose around half of the 1,000 seats they are contesting. They have pointed out, for example, that the equivalent elections were held in 2021 when the government of then Prime Minister Boris Johnson was riding high following the rollout of the coronavirus vaccines. Thursday’s elections are important in themselves — voters decide who will run many aspects of their daily lives, such as bin collections, the state of the roads and local crime prevention measures, for the coming years.But with a general election looming, they will be viewed through a national prism.Here are five things to know: WHAT’S HAPPENING? Voters in England and Wales will go to the polls for local, mayoral, and police and crime commissioner elections. The voting is the final test of public opinion before the general election, which has to take place by January 2025 but which Sunak, who has the power to decide on the date, has indicated will be in the second half of 2024. As well as a number of mayoral votes, including in London where Sadiq Khan is expected to win a third term, there are more than 100 elections to local councils and nearly 40 for local police and crime commissioners. There’s also a special parliamentary election in Blackpool South, a long-time Labour seat that went Conservative in the last election in 2019, when Johnson won a big victory. The results will be announced in coming days. London’s mayoral result isn’t due until Saturday.No elections are taking place in Scotland or Northern Ireland, the other constituent nations of the U.K. WHAT’S AT STAKE FOR SUNAK? Potentially his job. Sunak replaced Liz Truss, who quit after 45 days following a budget of unfunded tax cuts that roiled financial markets and sent borrowing costs for homeowners surging.Sunak, who warned about the economic implications of Truss’ plan, was supposed to be a steady hand after taking the top job in October 2022. If opinion polls are right, he’s not improved the Conservatives’ ratings, which had even prior to Truss, been battered by the circus surrounding Johnson, who was ousted over a series of ethics scandals. With the Conservatives seemingly headed for one of their biggest-ever electoral defeats, there’s mounting speculation Sunak may face a leadership battle if Thursday’s elections are really bad. Key to his survival could be the mayoral elections in the West Midlands and Tees Valley in the northeast of England. Should Conservative mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen hold on, he may win some respite from restive lawmakers in his party. Should both lose, he may face trouble. IS LABOUR HEADED FOR POWER? In historical terms, Labour has a mountain to climb if it’s going to form the next government. It’s performance in 2019 was its worst since 1935. Starmer has tried to bring the party back to the center of British politics after the five-year leadership of veteran left-winger Jeremy Corbyn. Starmer’s cautious approach has clearly worked if opinion polls are anything to go by. But it’s fair to say that enthusiasm levels are far lower than those that heralded the arrival of Tony Blair ahead of the 1997 general election. That may be partly due to the more challenging economic backdrop, but Starmer, formerly a human rights lawyer, lacks the razzmatazz of his predecessor. Even so, Starmer will hope Labour notches up big wins in areas it lost under Corbyn, in the north of England and in the Midlands.One point of concern is how many traditionally Labour supporters in Muslim communities fail to vote in protest at the party’s stance over the conflict in Gaza. ARE VOTERS BEING TACTICAL? One of the contributing factors to Blair’s landslide victory in 1997 came from so-called tactical voting, whereby some voters put aside their preferred political party and back whoever they think is most likely to defeat the Conservative candidate. Tactical voting has reemerged in recent years and could become key in the general election. It usually involves voters sympathetic to Labour in parts of the country, such as southwest England, backing the much-smaller Liberal Democrats and Liberal Democrat supporters loaning votes to Labour in the Midlands and the north of England. Conservative lawmakers across the U.K., even in supposedly safe seats, will be hugely concerned if voters think more tactically. PINCER FROM THE RIGHT? The Conservatives don’t just face a challenge from the left. Reform UK is trying to outflank it from the right. Though it is standing in a few seats, Conservatives will worry that support for the party will see Labour and others come through the middle. Reform UK, which claims to be tougher on issues such as immigration and on Brexit, has said it won’t stand aside to give incumbent Conservative lawmakers an easier chance at the general election, as its former incarnation, The Brexit Party, did in 2019. The Blackpool South special election will be particularly interesting on that front. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRules that failed to reveal David Cameron’s WhatsApp lobbying of ministers on behalf of disgraced financier Lex Greensill should be reformed, an influential group of MPs have said. At the height of the Covid pandemic the foreign secretary and his staff sent 45 emails, texts, and messages about Greensill, including nine WhatsApps to the then chancellor Rishi Sunak. The contact from Lord Cameron, then a former prime minister who had been out of office for almost half a decade, emerged only after Greensill Capital collapsed in 2021. They showed he wrote to one senior official during the pandemic that he hoped to “see you with Rishi’s (sic) for an elbow bump or foot tap. Love Dc”.He also texted Michael Gove, when Boris Johnson was isolating with Covid symptoms, saying: “I know you are manically busy – and doing a great job, by the way (this is bloody hard and I think the team is coping extremely well. But do you have a moment for a word? I am on this number and v free. All good wishes Dc.”Tory MP David Jones, the acting chair of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, said: “Increasingly, lobbying activity is undertaken on instant messaging channels such as WhatsApp and this is an area which we think needs greater transparency, to bring it in line with reporting of face-to-face meetings held with ministers, in order to increase public confidence in the democratic process.” WhatApps should be subject to the same disclosure regime as face-to-face meetings – which must be reported, according to the committee. They should also be blocked on official devices if no transparency regime that “can command public confidence” has been implemented, the MPs recommend.Applying those rules would “likely have required” the disclosure of Greensill Capital’s interactions with ministers and officials, their inquiry found. Their report also calls for all special adviser meetings to be disclosed. Cameron had been out of office for almost a decade when he lobbied ministers More

Related video: Rishi Sunak refuses to rule out July general electionSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailVoters head to the polls in England on Thursday for local elections viewed as the final big test of public opinion ahead of the general election.Elections are taking place in 107 local authorities across the country, with 2,636 seats up for grabs. Voters will also choose the mayor of London, London assembly members and 10 other mayors outside the capital.There is also a by-election taking place in Blackpool South following the resignation of former Conservative MP Scott Benton. Voters in England and Wales will also choose new police and crime commissioners.Polling suggests that the mayoral contests in Tees Valley and West Midlands are on a knife edge and will be closely watched in Westminster for their potential ramifications in a national vote.Forecasts say the Tories could lose up to half the 1,000 or so council seats they are defending and rebels opposed to Rishi Sunak’s premiership have warned they would move against him if the results were poor.But Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, told broadcasters the prime minister’s position was safe regardless of the outcome.“I think there’s a lot of noise being made by people who want to get attention but the prime minister has the full backing of the Cabinet, he has my full backing,” she said.Show latest update 1714615200ICYMI: Tories’ top mayor disowns Rishi Sunak on eve of pollIn an exclusive interview with The Independent, Lord Houchen warned that his potential defeat in this week’s local elections should be “a wake-up call” for Tory MPs.Full report: Matt Mathers2 May 2024 03:001714611600Sadiq Khan accuses Lee Anderson of ‘fuelling hate’ amid secret recordingFull report: Matt Mathers2 May 2024 02:001714608000Can Monty Panesar spin his way into the House of Commons?England’s former left-arm bowler wants to become a left-wing MP but, as Sean O’Grady explains, a Labour majority could leave him stumpedRead Sean’s piece in full here: Matt Mathers2 May 2024 01:001714604460Tories expect ‘significant losses’ at local elections, Chancellor saysJeremy Hunt has said the Conservatives will likely suffer “significant losses” in the local elections as the party braces itself for a contest seen as the final test of public opinion before a general election.The Chancellor sought to manage expectations before voters head to the polls on Thursday, suggesting the Tories are anticipating defeat in hundreds of seats.Full report: Matt Mathers2 May 2024 00:011714600855How will success and failure unfold for Labour and Conservatives in the local elections?Full report: Matt Mathers1 May 2024 23:001714597255Tories blast Labour with police complaints ahead of crucial local electionsFull report: Matt Mathers1 May 2024 22:001714595455Tories attack Labour and Lib Dems ahead of electionsAhead of the polls, a Conservative Party spokesman sought to draw attention to the record of their rivals in local government.“Across the country Labour and the Liberal Democrats have run their councils into the ground, bankrupting local authorities and wasting taxpayer’s time and money on bonkers policies,” they said.The spokesman added: “Meanwhile we have a strong record. Our Conservative mayors have delivered record investment and apprenticeships for their areas, and you are two times less likely to be a victim of crime under a Conservative Police and Crime Commissioner.“Only the Conservative Party can be trusted to deliver better quality services for lower tax.”Matt Mathers1 May 2024 21:301714594255Tees Valley’s mayor may be a straw for Tories to clutch, but even if he wins he can’t save SunakLocal elections preview: Ben Houchen may buck the trend, but the outlook is still bad for the Conservatives come the general election, writes John Rentoul.Read John’s piece in full here: Matt Mathers1 May 2024 21:101714592455Exclusive: Senior Tories wanted right-wing Reform candidate for London mayor instead of Susan HallA cabinet minister was among senior Tories who pushed for Reform UK’s Howard Cox to be their candidate for London mayor instead of the beleaguered Susan Hall, The Independent understands.A source close to the prime minister’s inner circle has claimed they wrote to Rishi Sunak pleading with him to select the right-wing motorist campaigner Mr Cox ahead of the decision by London party members to nominate Susan Hall.Full report: Matt Mathers1 May 2024 20:401714590623Exclusive | Tory mayor Ben Houchen’s swipe at Rishi Sunak: they’ll vote for me – but not youIn an exclusive interview with The Independent, Mr Houchen warned that his potential defeat in this week’s local elections should be “a wake-up call” for Tory MPs.Full report: Matt Mathers1 May 2024 20:10 More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThere are a number of misleading websites using London election candidate names which redirect to the Russian government website, The Independent has found. Experts have warned it is “impossible to tell” who is behind these spoof websites as targeted candidates have expressed their outrage. The Independent has found six different misleading websites in candidate names which lead to an English language version of the official Russian government website.Liberal Democrat candidate Rob Blackie and Reform UK candidate Howard Cox have been targeted. There were also three website URLs impersonating Social Democrat Party candidate Amy Gallagher. It is unknown who is behind the purchase of the domains or if there are further domains that use London mayoral candidate names.Two websites impersonating candidate Brian Rose also redirect to the Tory’s Susan Hall campaign site. Stuart Fuller, chief commercial officer of Com Laude, a domain name management company, told The Independent: “Though it is impossible to tell who exactly is behind these websites, it is unlikely to be Russian Government interference. “Most cybersquatting is driven by financial gain – as there are so many relevant domains for candidates to own, such as .uk and .london, it is very difficult for campaign managers to pre-emptively buy them all before a candidate stands.“This creates the opportunity for malicious parties to cause substantial reputational damage, critical for the outcomes of elections, in a bid to sell these domains on to candidates for profit. “Domains can be registered and put to use in a matter of minutes and most candidates don’t trademark their names, making them ideal targets for this kind of cybercrime.”Liberal Democrat candidate Rob Blackie has been targeted by the hoax More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNatalie Campbell, an independent candidate running for London mayor, has said she will take a “CEO’s approach” to leading the capital because the “party-political system is broken”.Ms Campbell grew up in north-west London, and she is the co-CEO of the social enterprise Belu Water. She been the chancellor of the University of Westminster since 2022.Speaking to The Independent, she said: “I absolutely love this city, but I know it’s not working anymore for most people. “There is a £17bn budget available to make sure that people at least have an opportunity to live well, and it’s being totally squandered by the current mayor. “When I was 15, I told myself that I want to see change in this city. London should have got better since then, but I do not believe that it has that it has.”Ms Campbell took aim at the Labour and Conservative candidates, adding “party-political system doesn’t serve the people, it serves the interests of power within a party”. “Unlike politicians, a CEO knows the buck stops and ends with them,” she said. “My position as an independent is that I don’t have to plead any political party. “Londoners are my boss. I’m very clear on that.” ‘Unlike politicians, a CEO knows the buck stops and ends with them’ More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailTarun Ghulati, an independent candidate running for London mayor, has pledged to reduce council tax and introduce rent controls in the capital. Mr Ghulati is a businessman and investment banker who describes himself as a “proud Hindu” and “takes pride in his roots having spent many years in India”.“I am determined to do whatever it takes to ensure that London, my chosen home for 20 years, retains its place as the leading Global City and that all Londoners feel safe, secure and empowered with opportunities for growth,” he said. “This position, however, masks the fact that around 2.2 million Londoners continue to live in poverty.“This is why improving wellbeing and living standards are critical for me. I strongly believe much more needs to be done for the low- and middle-income households across London. “I am passionate about reinvigorating optimism and pride for these families and believe this can be achieved through my proposals to level up across the city.”Mr Ghulati says he will ensure there is more visible community policing by hiring more officers and and reopening police stations across London.This includes a focus on crimes against women and girls. He has pledged to scrap Ulez and Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs), and will also remove all 20mph speed limits. On housing, Mr Ghulati said he will introduce rent controls and ensure that new developments include a certain percentage of affordable housing units.He would also reduce council tax, and subsidise construction costs for affordable housing developments, whilst keeping the free school meals policy introduced by Sadiq Khan. Mr Ghulati’s main manifesto pledges include: Ensure London retains its place as the leading global city and that all Londoners feel safe, secure and empowered with opportunities for growthImprove wellbeing and living standardsUnwavering support for entrepreneurshipRekindle the spirit, pride, and vibrancy of every LondonerDo away with barriers for growth and ensure the safety of all its citizensEncourage the free flow of ideas and policies without party ideology and biasEnsure London becomes the first choice for investment to ensure safety and prosperity for allYou can read Tarun Ghulati’s full manifesto here.Voters can cast their ballot in person on 2 May, by post or by proxy. Find your nearest polling station here.Everyone will need to show photo ID at polling stations before they vote.The results will be announced at City Hall on Saturday 4 May.Read the full list of candidates here. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailVoters across England and Wales will take to the polls on Thursday for the latest round of local elections. Alongside thousands of councillors, a record 12 metro mayors are to be elected – including the high-profile Mayor of London.Incumbent Sadiq Khan is hoping to secure a third term for Labour as he fights off Conservative candidate Susan Hall. They are amongst 11 candidates in total, including the controversial right-wing Reform UK party’s Jeremy Cox.Mr Khan has sought to focus on his succcesses when on the campaign trail. These include an expansion to existing rail and bus lines, as well as frozen fares for Londoners.Follow our live coverage of the elections by clicking hereThe London mayor has also pledged policies which aim to tackle the ongoing cost of living crisis and housing issues many in the capital are facing. Amongst these are free school meals for all children, and 40,000 new council homes.His competition has aimed to draw the dividing lines in different places. High on the agenda of most candidates is a change or scrap to Mr Khan’s Ulez expansion, which continues to provoke intense reactions.Alongside challenges to his record on knife crime and changes to the electoral system, Thursday’s mayoral election is likely to be the Labour mayor’s most difficult – something he has admitted himself.Here everything you need to know about the three big issues that have shaped London’s mayoral election:The debate around ULEZ rages on (as Reform UK takes advantage)People during an anti-Ulez protest in Trafalgar Square (Stefan Rousseau/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailHigh-profile Tory mayor Ben Houchen has lashed out at the state of the Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak as he battles to hold on to his job running Tees Valley.In an exclusive interview with The Independent, Lord Houchen warned that his potential defeat in this week’s local elections should be “a wake-up call” for Tory MPs.And in an extraordinary broadside at his own party, he said voters were pledging to support him, but not the Tories at the next general election.Lord Houchen told The Independent: “There are lots of people who will come up to me and speak to me that say that they’re going to vote for me, but they probably won’t be voting for the Conservative Party in the general election.”He said attempts by ministers to crack down on illegal migration, including the release of pictures showing potential deportees being rounded up, “will not be enough” to save the party.His damning intervention comes as the local election battle intensified on Wednesday, with the Tories reporting Labour West Midlands mayoral candidate Richard Parker to police for alleged electoral fraud.Sunak and Houchen during a visit to see the construction works at Teesside Freeport in Redcar in July 2022 More