UK

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch live as Jeremy Hunt delivers the spring Budget following Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday 6 March.The chancellor is expected to make a 2p cut to national insurance central to his announcement, which he said would deliver “more opportunity and more prosperity”.Mr Hunt, who has faced pressure from Tory MPs to ease the record-high tax burden, promised “permanent cuts in taxation” that would bring “higher growth” as he seeks to woo voters ahead of this year’s general election.Wednesday’s Budget is expected to be the last before the UK heads to the polls.The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to publish its outlook around an hour after the chancellor delivers his statement to the House of Commons.Ahead of Mr Hunt’s Budget, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has accused the Tories of overseeing “fourteen years of economic failure”.“The Conservatives promised to fix the nation’s roof, but instead they have smashed the windows, kicked the door in and are now burning the house down,” she said. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email British Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt headed to Parliament on Wednesday to announce tax cuts for millions of workers, a move his Conservative Party hopes can turn the political dial ahead of a general election in the coming year.Even though the British economy has hit one definition of recession and public finances are stretched, Hunt is under pressure from his colleagues to use his annual budget statement to cut taxes. With poll after poll showing the Conservatives losing heavily to the main opposition Labour Party in a general election, the government hopes putting more money in people’s pockets during a cost-of-living crisis would boost the Conservative Party’s dire ratings.The election has to take place by January 2025 but could come as soon as May. Hunt’s boss, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, will decide when the election will take place as their party tries to retain control of government, which they have held since 2010.Hunt is set to tell Parliament that the British economy withstood the coronavirus pandemic and a sharp spike in energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent inflation soaring and prompted the Bank of England to raise interest rates aggressively.“Of course, interest rates remain high as we bring down inflation,” he plans to say. “But because of the progress we’ve made, because we are delivering on the prime minister’s economic priorities, we can now help families with permanent cuts in taxation.”Hunt, who had a pre-budget audience with King Charles III at Buckingham Palace on Tuesday, is set to announce a cut in national insurance — a tax that 27 million employees pay — by 2 percentage points, to 8%. If that materializes, it will follow his decision to cut the rate by the same amount in November. There’s also speculation that Hunt may decide to cut the basic rate of income tax by 1 percentage point. That would benefit retirees and savers, too — but would be hugely expensive.Whatever cuts emerge will be paid for by keeping a lid on spending for already cash-starved public services as well as a series of tax increases, potentially on business class airfares, vapes and a higher levy charged to oil and gas producers. There also has been speculation that he may abolish “non-domiciled” tax status, which allows some wealthy individuals to avoid paying U.K. taxes.Sunak has previously indicated that the election will most likely be in the second half of this year. However, Sunak has not ruled it out this spring, and Wednesday’s tax-cutting budget could act as a launchpad for that.Sunak and Hunt have restored a measure of economic stability after the short-lived premiership of Liz Truss, which foundered after a series of unfunded tax cuts roiled financial markets and sent borrowing costs surging.But U.K. households are struggling under the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades. And economists warn that the tax burden will remain near record levels regardless of what the budget delivers as the government recoups the hundreds of billions of pounds that it spent during the pandemic and the energy price shock.Adam Corlett, principal economist at the Resolution Foundation think tank, said there were “huge questions” about the need for tax cuts this year, given the outlook for public spending and the need to reduce our national debt.“But, while this is going to be a tax-cutting election year, it is sandwiched between significant past and future tax rises, with the budget likely to only add to the number of tax increases coming in after the election,” he said. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailForeign Secretary David Cameron has said “a whole series of warnings” needs to be given to Israel over aid reaching Gaza with people dying of hunger and disease in the besieged enclave.Speaking in Parliament, the former prime minister said he would be “starting” with Benny Gantz, a retired general and a member of Israel’s war cabinet, who he was due to meet on Wednesday.Despite pressing for humanitarian assistance to get through, Lord Cameron said the amount of aid that reached the territory in February was just half that of the previous month.He also made clear Israel as the occupying power was responsible, which had consequences under international humanitarian law.The Cabinet minister made his comments as he responded at the end of a lengthy, wide-ranging debate on foreign affairs in the upper chamber, who saw contributions from more than 60 speakers.Lord Cameron also made a cryptic reference to former Liberal Democrat leader and former coalition partner Sir Nick Clegg in the face of calls by members of the party to restore the UK’s aid-spending target of 0.7% of gross national income.He told peers: “We are also committed to getting back to 0.7%.“I won’t reveal what Nick Clegg said to me privately when we were pushing for 0.7% as that would be unfair.”Lord Cameron also insisted using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine “is the right thing to do” and did not believe it would damage London’s position as a leading financial centre.The Foreign Secretary said Israel had an ‘obligation to ensure significantly more humanitarian aid reached the people of Gaza’ (Stoyan Nenov/PA)Against the backdrop of the devastating Israel-Hamas conflict, triggered by the militant massacre on October 7, Lord Cameron said: “We are facing a situation of dreadful suffering in Gaza. There can be no doubt about that.“I spoke some weeks ago about the danger of this tipping into famine and the danger of illness tipping into disease and we are now at that point. People are dying of hunger. People are dying of otherwise preventable disease.“We have been pushing for this aid to get in. We have had a whole set of things we have asked the Israelis to do but I have to report to the House that the amount of aid that got in in February was about half of what got in in January.”He added: “So patience needs to run very thin and a whole series of warnings need to be given starting I hope with a meeting I have with minister Gantz when he visits the UK.”He went on: “Israel is the occupying power, it is responsible and that has consequences, including in how we look at whether Israel is compliant with international humanitarian law.”On the moves to find a permanent peace settlement in the Middle East, Lord Cameron said: “Clearly part of a two-state solution is the recognition of Palestine as a state. I don’t think that should happen at the start of the process because I think that takes all the pressure off the Palestinians to reform, but it shouldn’t have to wait until the end.“I think recognition can become part of the unstoppable momentum we need to see towards a two-state solution.”The Tory frontbencher also responded to a report in the Jewish Chronicle that the Foreign Office had hosted a seminar at which officials were told that calling Hamas terrorists was an “obstacle to peace” and it was suggested Israel was a “white, settler colonialist nation”.Lord Cameron said: “Hamas is a terrorist organisation and let me say very clearly, its apologists should not be invited into the FCDO for a seminar.“I once said as Prime Minister that when you are Prime Minister you spend half the time trying to find out what the Government is doing and then you spend the half of the time trying to stop it. It turns out being Foreign Secretary is not entirely different.”On using frozen Russian assets to assist Ukraine, Lord Cameron said: “I think the moral case is there. That this money should be used for the benefit of the Ukrainian people. I think the economic case is very strong.”Referring to London’s position as a financial centre, he said: “I don’t think this will disadvantage us in any way using this money.”Outlining the possible options, he said the assets could be used a surety against a loan or bond.And while aiming for “the maximum amount” of unity with other nations on such a move, he added: “But if we can’t get it I think we will have to move ahead with allies that want to take this action. I think it is the right thing to do.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch as David Cameron was expected to speak in a House of Lords debate on foreign affairs on Tuesday, 5 March.It came after the foreign secretary warned that Israel is in breach of international law if it does not provide Gaza with food and water.The World Health Organisation (WHO) said that children are dying of starvation in northern Gaza.Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the agency, said 10 children have died from a lack of food.Dr Ghebreyesus said visits over the weekend found severe levels of malnutrition, children dying of starvation, serious shortages of fuel, food and medical supplies, and hospital buildings destroyed.The situation at Al-Awda Hospital is “particularly appalling, as one of the buildings is destroyed,” he said, adding that the only paediatric facility Kamal Adwan Hospital was overwhelmed with patients. Elsewhere, Lord Cameron has “strongly” called on Hong Kong to “reconsider” their proposal for a new national security law, which he said will inhibit freedom of speech, expression, and the press.He said the region’s new security legislation breaches its obligations signed under the British government’s handover deal of the former UK colony. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA minister has been forced to deny plans for a May election as the government faced calls to explain why a top diplomat was kept ‘in the dark’ over the cancellation of a major summit in April.Rishi Sunak had been due to host political and business leaders from 25 different African countries at the gathering in London.But it will not now be held at the end of April, a decision taken so abruptly the event’s official envoy was already on his way to visit the continent when he found out, ministers have admitted.The revelation will add to growing speculation over an early poll.Mr Sunak has previously said he wants to hold it in the second half of the year.And asked on Monday if there was a “sniff” of a chance of a May general election, trade minister Mr Hands told Times Radio: “No.”He was questioned over mounting speculation the PM could call a snap poll to coincide with local elections at the start of May, just weeks after the postponed Africa investment summit was due to have taken place.In answer to questions from shadow attorney general Emily Thornberry, ministers have now admitted the envoy, former British ambassador to Ethiopia, Dr Alastair McPhail, was only informed the summit had been delayed while “en route” to Rwanda to discuss it.They blamed “scheduling issues in the international calendar” for its postponement.But Labour has accused them of showing “blatant disrespect” to allies and called for an explanation.The party says it is prepping for a May election amid fears the Conservatives will try to use the element of surprise to avoid a thumping from voters.Rishi Sunak (Stefan Rousseau/PA)Shadow minister for trade Gareth Thomas said: “Whether or not this summit was postponed with a May election in mind, there has been no proper explanation for the decision, and now we discover that even the official envoy for the event was left in the dark about it.”He added: “But as bad as that is, the biggest issue is not how David Cameron has sidelined his own diplomats, it is how our trade partners throughout Africa have been treated.””Treating countries who should be our friends with such blatant disrespect is not the way to promote mutually beneficial business deals. “In a parliamentary answer, minister Leo Docherty said the “Envoy was informed of the postponement of the Summit on 29 January shortly after the decision was taken, at which point he was already en route to Rwanda.”He added that the decision had been taken “owing to scheduling issues in the international calendar”.The total cost of three-day trip to promote the event was £4,714 visit, the government said.The Foreign Office declined to comment. A No 10 source said the working assumption was still an autumn election. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSpeculation is rife about what chancellor Jeremy Hunt might announce when he sets out the government’s spending plans in the spring Budget.In the run-up, most reporting had focused on whether taxes would be slashed.However, reports revealed on Tuesday the chancellor is expected to slice 2p from the rate of National Insurance instead, after concluding income tax cuts would be too expensive and risk stoking inflation, which remained frozen at 4 per cent in January.We want to know what you’d like to see announced in Jeremy Hunt’s budget.If you were given the reigns to Number 11, what policies would you implement? Would you be keen to see more help introduced for first-time buyers? Or would you rather see enhanced VAT relief on electric vehicle charging brought in?Share your opinion by adding it in the comments and we’ll highlight the most insightful ones as they come in.All you have to do is sign up and register your details – then you can then take part in the discussion. You can also sign up by clicking ‘log in’ on the top right-hand corner of the screen.Make sure you adhere to our community guidelines, which can be found here. For a full guide on how to comment click here.Join the conversation with other Independent readers below or by clicking here. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailJeremy Hunt is reportedly considering axing the controversial “non-domiciled” tax status in his spring Budget this week to help fund pre-election tax cuts.The non-dom tax status is for wealthy overseas individuals and scrapping the loophole has been one of Labour’s flagship policies.If scrapped by the chancellor to raise emergency funds for the Budget, it would leave the opposition scrambling for new sources of cash to fund other key pledges. Mr Hunt has not always been in favour of axing the status, however, saying back in 2022: “I would rather wealthy foreigners spent their money in Britain.”The issues around people with non-dom tax status came under the spotlight again last year when The Independent revealed that Rishi Sunak’s wife Akshata Murty dodged millions in UK tax by taking advantage of the loophole.Research from the London School of Economics found that scrapping the special exception would raise the government over £3.2bn a year, something that could help fund other tax cuts. Their forecast predicts that just 0.3 per cent of people with non-dom status would leave the country in this scenario.However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies this week warned the chancellor to “tread carefully” on removing it. The research group pointed out that there are around 37,000 people claiming the non-dom tax exception in the UK, still paying a collective £6bn in UK taxes. Any major change, they argue, could see many of them leave the country – taking this revenue with them.Here, we take a look at everything you need to know about the non-dom status: What is ‘non-dom’ tax status?First introduced in 1799, and refined over the years, the UK’s “non-domiciled” tax regime has come under scrutiny in recent years.A “non-domiciled individual” is a person who lives in the UK but is not settled here permanently. They will only pay UK tax on money made in the country, and can avoid paying it on their foreign income if they opt to claim the “remittance basis”.This allows wealthy individuals living in the UK to elect the lower-tax country as their domicile, making for major savings.There are two ways you can claim this status. Firstly, if you weren’t born in the UK, or your father came from a different country. The only other way is if you are over 16 and choose to leave the UK to live elsewhere permanently.Jeremy Hunt ahead of the 2023 spring Budget If you are a non-dom and choose not to pay UK tax on your overseas earnings, you must pay:£30,000, if you’ve been in the UK for at least seven of the past nine tax years£60,000 if you’ve been here for at least 12 of the past 14 tax yearsYou can no longer claim non-dom status after you have lived in the UK for 15 of the previous 20 years. Non-doms that don’t claim the remittance basis will simply pay UK tax on their foreign income (over £2,000).Several other countries similarly operate a tax system with special rights for non-dom individuals.Other countries with a special “non-dom” tax systemIt’s not just the UKBelgiumCyprusPortugalIrelandItalyMaltaThe NetherlandsSwitzerland How many people with non-dom status live in the UK?In April 2023, there were 68,800 non-doms living in the UK, with an estimated 37,000 claiming the special ‘remittance basis’ tax status.Ms Murty remains a non-domicilied individual as a citizen of India. However, following the revelations of her tax arrangements, Ms Murty opted to begin paying UK tax on all her worldwide income in future and for the 2021/22 financial year.The prime minister’s wife issued a statement at the time, accepting that her tax status was not “compatible” with Mr Sunak’s political role, and that she appreciates the “British sense of fairness”.It was estimated she dodged up to £20m in UK tax over several years on her dividends from Indian IT firm Infosys, founded by her father. Conservative peer Zac Goldsmith Conservative peer Zac Goldsmith held non-dom tax status until becoming an MP in 2009, when he relinquished it under media and political pressure. He inherited the status from his father.Other famous non-doms have included: oligarch and former owner of Chelsea football club Roman Abramovich, media mogul Viscount Rothermere, and AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA Tory minister has appeared to rule out a May general election, suggesting voters will go to the polls this autumn.With Rishi Sunak’s party lagging Labour in the polls by 20 points, Greg Hands said the contest will be “later this year”.The trade minister was asked about mounting speculation the PM could call a snap election in May, to coincide with local elections around the country, but ruled the prospect out.Tory trade minister Greg Hands said the general election will not be in May Asked on Times Radio whether there is “a sniff” of a chance of a May general election, Mr Hands said: “No.”At the same time, Labour’s shadow paymaster general was making a bet with Sky News presenter Kay Burley that the contest would be in May.Jonathan Ashworth said: “After 14 years of the Tories… I think the British people will say it’s time for a change and will want to get rid of the Tories.“And by the way, this election is coming in May. I think it is definitely coming in May… the Conservatives are planning for that.”Mr Ashworth accepted a £10 bet for a children of alcoholics charity and called on Mr Sunak to “name that date”.Mr Sunak has previously said his “working assumption” is that he will call the election in the second half of this year, but has refused to set out a date.But expectations have been raised of a May election ahead of mooted tax cuts in Wednesday’s budget and the potential deportation flights to Rwanda could take off within weeks.Rishi Sunak has refused to say when the general election will be, suggesting it will be at some point in the second half of 2024 No10 has insisted it is committed to getting flights off the ground by the spring, which could combine with a tax giveaway and give the Tories a campaign boost.There are also growing fears Mr Sunak faces a tough set of results at the May local elections, which could destabilise his leadership.And some suggest the government could opt for a May election to limit the damage to the Conservatives, with no evidence the party can expect a turnaround in the polls.Former Tory leader Lord Hague urged the PM to “keep his options open” on the timing of the election, but added that it is “much more likely” to come late this year. Mr Sunak’s deadline to dissolve parliament in time for a 7 May election is 26 March.It comes after a shock survey on Monday revealed the party is on course for one of its worst election defeats in history.It showed for the Conservative Party has plunged to the lowest level since 1978 with just a fifth of British voters now backing Mr Sunak’s party.The Tories were 27 points behind Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, which would spell electoral oblivion for Mr Sunak’s party if replicated at a general election.The Ipsos poll, published on Monday, shows Mr Sunak could hold on to as few as 25 seats – 351 fewer than Boris Johnson won in 2019 – in what would be a historic defeat.It also predicts Sir Keir could secure as many as 537 seats – 340 more than Jeremy Corbyn managed at the last election and equating to a landslide which would eclipse Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 win.The survey showed support for the Tories at just 20 per cent, the lowest since 1978 when Ipsos started tracking the poll. Ipsos is a multinational market research firm and the poll is the latest in its monthly independent Political Monitor.In the latest survey, Labour’s support has dropped to 47 per cent from the 49 per cent it had in January.Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats were backed by 9 per cent of the electorate, while support for both the Green Party and Reform UK was at 8 per cent – double what it was in January.Ipsos’s previous lowest score for the Conservatives was 22 per cent, recorded by John Major in December 1994 and May 1995, only a few years before Sir Tony’s election win. More