UK

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch live as Stormont sits on Saturday, 3 February, after two years of political collapse in Northern Ireland.Devolved government is expected to return as MLAs gather at Parliament Buildings for a sitting where ministers will be appointed to a powersharing executive, bringing an end to the impasse.Michelle O’Neill is set to become the first nationalist first minister.Sinn Fein’s vice president hailed Saturday as a “historic day.”“It is about the future. It is about working together to deliver for workers and families, and creating new and exciting opportunities that ensure our children and grandchildren can achieve their dreams and ambitions in life,” Ms O’Neill added.The DUP, the largest unionist party in the region, agreed to drop its two-year Stormont blockade in exchange for government measures aimed at addressing its concerns about post-Brexit trading arrangements that created economic barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak tried to cheer up deflated Conservative MPs by comparing the party to England cricket’s heroes.The prime minister likened the Tories to the English cricketers who produced an unlikely comeback by beating India in the first test.The Conservatives have been trailing Labour in the polls by around 20 points for months – but the Tory leader told his troops this year’s general election could still be won.The PM made the comparison at a dinner with around 100 of his MPs on Thursday night, according to Politico – insisting the party was down but not out.The Tories’ general elections chief Isaac Levido is said to have used the event at the Londoner hotel to tell MPs than there are an estimated 10 million voters who “don’t know” which party they will back.And Mr Levido promised the MPs that they would be getting another 15,000 leaflets for their constituency after chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s March 6 budget.Current polls predicts a Tory wipeout for Sunak and the Conservatives The Tory strategist recently attempted to gee up MPs by insisting he wouldn’t waste his own time on a doomed enterprise. “I wouldn’t be here unless I thought we could win,” he said.CCHQ is grasping at the idea of winning over enough “don’t knows” to force a closer contest, perhaps denying Sir Keir Starmer a majority even if Labour win the most seats.One minister recently revealed that internal polling shows that at least 20 per cent of Tory voters in 2019 have not made up their minds which party they will support.Mr Sunak’s address comes as cabinet minister Kemi Badenoch shrugged off claims that she is a member of a WhatsApp group titled “Evil Plotters”.The grassroots Tory favourite told ITV News on Thursday: “I think this is a nonsense story. This is the media trying to fuel lots of gossip about Westminster.”The business secretary is not believed to be pushing to replace Mr Sunak – but she has reportedly been holding regular lunches with key backers including housing minister Lee Rowley and digital minister Julia Lopez.Dougie Smith, a senior Tory strategist who has worked as an adviser to successive PM, is aiding a group of rebels MPs and ex-advisers actively plotting to oust Mr Sunak, according to The Times.Although Ms Badenoch has no involvement with the plotters, the group of disgruntled right-wingers are said to believe she is best placed to succeed Mr Sunak if he is pushed out in the months ahead.Kemi Badenoch reportedly a member of an ‘Evil Plotters’ WhatsApp groupCommons Leader Penny Mordaunt, another leadership favourite, was urged to reveal if she is a traitor or a faithful after being accused of giving a “bizarre” tribute to Mr Sunak – akin to the misdirection efforts in the hit BBC show.Labour raised questions about Ms Mordaunt’s recent defence of the “best of Great Britain” PM after senior Tory Simon Clarke had called for Mr Sunak to be sacked.Shadow Commons leader Lucy Powell compared it to The Traitors, the BBC reality programme in which a small group of “traitors” remain undetected as they plot to remove a wider group of “faithfuls” in order to win a cash prize.Ms Mordaunt did not directly answer the accusations – instead insisting that she and the Tory party had been “faithful” to the British public. “I will make the case that we are faithfuls on this side of the House.”LBC host Nick Ferrari is also said to have joked about the BBC show as he spoke at the Tory dinner last night – saying his listeners now believed party is “more like an episode of The Traitors”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch live as closing statements are heard in Phase 4 of the Post Office inquiry on Friday 2 February.Yesterday, three former subpostmasters had their decade-old convictions quashed at the Court of Appeal, taking the total number of quashed convictions due to the Horizon scandal to 100.Allen Reynolds, Nilufar Ali and Davinder Bangay were cleared of their convictions for theft or fraud, each dating back to between 2008 and 2011.Each of the former Post Office workers was ordered to carry out at least 100 hours of unpaid work in their sentencings, with two of the former subpostmasters ordered to pay back more than £10,000 each after then-unexplained shortfalls in their accounts.The three appeals were lodged within the past two weeks and bring the total number of convictions successfully overturned to 100, including eight cases prosecuted by other bodies than the company.More than 700 Post Office branch managers around the UK were prosecuted between 1999 and 2015 after faulty Horizon accounting software made it look as though money was missing from their shops.Hundreds of subpostmasters and subpostmistresses are still awaiting compensation despite the government announcing that those who have had convictions quashed are eligible for £600,000 payouts. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe chancellor has dialled down expectations about the size of the tax cuts coming in next month’s Budget, as the Bank of England offered a fresh warning that Britain’s economy was not out of the woods.Jeremy Hunt told Tory MPs that he had far less “scope” for pre-election tax cuts than he did in November’s autumn statement beacuse of new inflation forecasts.Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, said wages remained too high for inflation to come down “sustainably” to its 2 per cent target anytime soon, as the Bank held interest rates at a 15-year high of 5.25 per cent.The Bank forecast that inflation is set to fall to its target of 2 per cent in the second quarter of 2024.However, Mr Bailey said the prediction that inflation is expected to reach the all-important target in the summer is not enough for him to cut rates – saying he wanted to stress the “the degree of persistence of inflation”.Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey offered fresh warning on ‘persistent’ inflation “It is not as simple as ‘inflation returns to target in the spring and job is done’,” he told reporters. “We need to see more evidence that inflation is set to fall all the way to the 2 per cent target, and stay there, before we can lower interest rates.”Explaining that wage growth was too high, the governor said the question of pay restraint for British companies was “important”.Economists have warned that persistent inflation problems will keep government borrowing costs higher than desired, and could leave the Treasury with less “headroom” for spending than hoped.Mr Hunt said on Thursday that it was positive news that interest rates “appear to have peaked” – but he also warned that inflation “never falls again in a straight line – it may tick up a little bit later this month”.The chancellor said: “The plan is working but now is not the time to junk that plan by a big spending spree, borrowing £28bn a year more as [Labour] want to do.”Jeremy Hunt has teased some form of tax cuts for 6 March Budget The borrowing comment was a jibe at Labour’s green investment plan – but Mr Hunt is well aware that most Tory MPs would like him to go on a “spending spree” by slashing taxes next month.The chancellor’s tone appears to have changed since the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned earlier this week that he could not afford tax cuts. The body said it would be “very challenging” to carry out, considering the UK’s mounting debt pile and need to spend more on an ageing population.The IMF has downgraded the UK’s growth forecast, expected to reach 0.6 per cent this year. This would make the UK economy the second-worst performer in the G7 this year.Mr Hunt insisted that he still wants to “lighten the tax burden”, but tried to temper Tory expectations of a big pre-election giveaway.“It does not look to me like we will have the same scope for cutting taxes in the spring Budget that we had in the autumn statement,” the chancellor told the BBC’s Political Thinking podcast.Inflation could rise in second half of 2024, Andrew Bailey says as interest rates held at 5.25%The chancellor is said to have fiscal headroom of only £14bn, according to Treasury estimates, leaving him little room to reduce income tax or national insurance. MPs have warned that England’s councils are facing a £4bn black hole.And the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think tank has said the government would need to find another £20bn to keep current levels of spending on the NHS, defence, childcare and international aid.The IFS has warned that tax cuts are not possible without “significant” spending cuts – calling on both Labour and the Tories to be “transparent” about the difficult choices ahead.Helen Miller, the IFS’ head of tax, told The Independent: “Talking up tax cuts means not talking honestly about the consequences to come – it’s not ideal to be saying we’ll cut taxes today and not saying how that’s going to be achieved.“There needs to be an honest discussion about spending cuts, and which bit of the state will get smaller to make room for tax cuts. If we don’t want the state to get smaller, then we have to have tax rises.”The Resolution Foundation’s James Smith said that “while politicians spar over tax cuts, they are ignoring the elephant in the room – namely the big spending cuts pencilled in after the next election. The public deserve to know what these planned cuts would mean for the state of public services”.Dr George Dibb, head of IPPR’s centre for economic justice, said: “Right now, further cuts to taxes aren’t what the public want, aren’t in the interests of the wider economy, and won’t help many voters feel economically better off.”Despite Mr Bailey’s warnings, Downing Street claimed that it was “good news” that wages have been growing faster than inflation.Mr Sunak’s official spokesperson said wage growth was “giving households much-needed relief” and said it was “really important” that living standards were growing again. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA minister in Rishi Sunak’s government has said he is quitting parliament at the general election after a series of death threats and an arson attack on his constituency office.Justice minister Mike Freer said he had avoided murder “by the skin of my teeth” – as MPs urged the government, their own parties and Commons authorities to do more to ensure proper security protection.Mr Freer – the Tory MP for London’s Finchley and Golders Green seat since 2010 – said it was time to say “enough” as he could no longer put his family through fears for his safety.The minister, who has pro-Israel views and represents a heavily Jewish constituency, said antisemitism was behind some of the intimidation and attacks on his office.The MP said he was shocked to learn that Ali Harbi Ali – who went on to kill Southend West MP David Amess – had previously watched his Finchley office.“There comes a point when the threats to your personal safety become too much,” he said in an interview with the Daily Mail.Mr Freer said: “I was very lucky that actually on the day I was due to be in Finchley, I happened to change my plans and came into Whitehall. Otherwise who knows whether I would have been attacked or survived an attack. He said he came to Finchley to attack me.”Conservative MP Mike Freer says there has been a history of attacks on him and his officeThe MP and his staff started wearing stab vests at public events after learning that Ali had watched his Finchley office before going on to knife Amess to death during a constituency surgery in 2021.The minister said he had also received threats from the group Muslims Against Crusades “about coming to stab me” and found “mock molotov cocktails on the office steps”.The arson attack on his north London constituency office in December was “the final straw”, he said.Commons speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle said he was “saddened” to hear that Mr Freer was quitting – admitting it was a “big challenge” to make MPs feel safe.Sir Lindsay told ITV’s Good Morning Britain programme that “we all get death threats” – appearing to suggest that it was normal. But he also insisted that the abuse and threats aimed at politicians is “not acceptable”.He later told Sky News he wanted MPs at Westminster to take the “heat” out of general election “fever”, suggesting it was adding to the febrile atmosphere.Sir Lindsay said: “I want us to have a nicer politics within the House. That’s why I made the statement [on Wednesday], to try and turn down the heat of each [PMQs] – because in the end, don’t be shocked if people react in the way that we react to each other.” He added: “I will do whatever I can as speaker, working with the security, working with the police, working with ministers, to ensure that members are safe, their families are safe, their offices safe. But that is the big challenge at the moment. It really is a threat.”Commons speaker Lindsay Hoyle said MPs had to turn down the ‘heat’Amid fresh questions for the government and Commons authorities on security, Penny Mordaunt, the Tories’ Commons leader, said she knew many MPs were “enduring” threats and intimidation.“Such attacks on elected members are attacks on democracy itself,” the senior Tory said in the Commons. “We condemn such actions and those who also encourage, incite and excuse them.”Labour MP Barry Sheerman criticised his own party as well as the Commons authorities, as he revealed that he had “raised my own worries and concerns in my own case recently”.He asked Ms Mordaunt about how better support can be given to MPs, adding: “I recently raised my problems, I haven’t had much help or support from the House or even from my own party.”Penny Mordaunt said many MPs were ‘enduring’ abuse and threats Ms Mordaunt said the public “can help” with the problem too as she criticised social media, urging voters not to “dehumanise” MPs online.“Whatever you think of a person’s political persuasions or their views or their voting record, they are here at the service of the people who sent them here, and that deserves respect and it deserves our protection too.” Tory MP Bob Blackman also pressed the government to ensure antisemitism is “prosecuted properly” after raising the decision of Mr Freer to quit parliament.The MP for Harrow East said ministers must raise the matter with the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) to make sure “that this is the last case of this and antisemitism is prosecuted properly”.Mr Sunak’s attorney general Victoria Prentis said she was working closely with the CPS and police. The cabinet minister said a “large number of prosecutions” have started on antisemitism cases in the wake of the Hamas attack on Israel.“We’re just starting to enter the phase – as we all saw, very sadly, a large uptick in this horrible crime after 7 October last year – where trials are beginning where people have not pleaded guilty,” said Ms Prentis.Shadow Commons leader Lucy Powell shared her “profound regret” that Mr Freer was forced to quit. “That any member is forced from office due to intimidation, threats and fear is an attack on all of us and what we represent,” she said.Mr Freer won his seat by around 6,600 votes at the last general election in 2019, seeing off a Liberal Democrat. Mr Freer joins a series of MPs who have announced their intention not to contest the next election, which is expected later this year.Sarah Sackman, Labour’s candidate in Finchley and Golders Green, said she was “shocked” by the reason for his exit. She added: “We should have been able to face each other in the polls based on our ideas and merits. Instead, politics is now so often skewed by violent language, hate and the dangers of social media.”Tory former minister Sir Conor Burns said it was a “totally understandable decision”. He tweeted: “The drip-drip of hate (not exclusively from people on the other side) and remorseless cynicism will drive more people out of politics.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSir Keir Starmer made veiled jab at his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn at a conference with business leaders whilst also flattering his audience as “wealth creators”.The Labour leader’s comments follow a series of policy announcements designed to help Labour cosy up with business.The shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has said that Labour would cap corporation tax at 25 per cent in the first parliamentary term of government.Ms Reeves also said yesterday that Labour would not reinstate the cap on bankers bonuses, after it was removed under former Conservative prime minister Liz Truss’ premiership in 2022.Speaking at his party’s business conference in central London, Sir Keir said: “I’d like you all to cast your mind back to 2019.“Let’s imagine that you were invited to an event like this, a Labour business conference, before any of the changes to our party had taken place.“The question is, would you go? Would you as a wealth creator feel that your ambition, the vital role you play in our economy commanded the respect it deserves?”The former Labour party leader was known for his cynical approach to business and his pro-worker policies Labour’s business blitz has evoked some ire from the left of the party, with both unions and MPs questioning the party’s commitment to working people at the expense of the interests of big business. Left-wing grassroots organisation, Momentum, called the decision not reinstate the cap “a terrible decision totally out of touch with Labour’s values and public opinion”, while Neal Compass, director of leftwing think tank Compass, stated:“The UK’s corporation tax rate is already the lowest in the G7. Labour’s pledge today not to raise it in government only serves to underline how difficult it is to change things under our political system.More and more people and organisations want a society that is fairer and more equal and better investment in our crumbling public services. But to win under FPTP [first past the post] means promising to the corporate lobby that nothing much will change, and so dissatisfaction with politics grows.”Angela Rayner, the deputy leader, has previously declared the party as “unashamedly pro-worker and pro-business”, explaining that working people want “growth that they both create and share – jobs that are well paid and secure, communities that can stand on their own feet, public services that are strong enough to help them succeed”. Deputy leader Angela Rayner has said the party will be ‘unashamedly pro-worker and pro-business’ Thus far the party has put economic growth at the top of their agenda, making it their core “mission”. Labour leaders have been engaging in a long-standing charm offensive with businesses up and down the country. The approch marks a significant change in policy from the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who was known for being more cynical of business and the financial sector, having called bankers “speculators and gamblers”.Mr Corbyn has since hit back at Labour’s announcement not to cap banker’s bonuses.On social media site X, the former Labour leader wrote:“Refusing to scrap the 2-child benefit cap is a political choice to impoverish the worst-off. “Refusing to reinstate the bankers’ bonus cap is a political choice to enrich the wealthy. “4.2 million children are living in poverty, but will nobody think of the bankers?”Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer told delegates at the sold-out conference that the “caricature that British business only serves the shareholder interest is lazy and out of date”.He told senior executives and investors that “one of the things I draw great hope from” is the “determination I see from the countless business leaders I’ve met to serve the national interest.”He stressed the “partnership” between Labour and business, saying “your fingerprints (are) on every one of our five missions.”“Everything we do is driven by a determination to provide the businesses, communities and people of this nation with the conditions to succeed,” he added. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailConservative justice minister Mike Freer has become the latest MP to announce that he will not stand at the next general election.Mr Freer, who represents Finchley and Golders Green in north London, said he was stepping back due to concerns about his safety.He said he had received several death threats and had a suspected arson attack on his constituency office on Christmas Eve last year.“There comes a point when the threats to your personal safety become too much,” he said in an interview with the Daily Mail.Mr Freer joins a growing number of Conservative MPs deciding to quit politics, including several high-profile ex-cabinet secretaries and other ministers.Former deputy prime minister Dominic Raab is among the big names stepping down Alok Sharma, the former business secretary and Cop26 president, Sajid Javid, the former health secretary, Dominic Raab, the ex-justice secretary and Ben Wallace, the former defence secretary, are among the other big-name Tories who have called it a day as their party struggles in the polls.Mr Sharma and Mr Raab, who resigned from his cabinet position following a slew of bullying allegations which he denied, would have been defending majorities of fewer than 5,000 votes at the next national poll.Most MPs walking away from Westminster are Conservatives, which is unsurprising given they are the biggest party, winning 365 seats at the 2019 election.According to the Institute for Government, the 2010 election saw more than 100 MPs stand down, mainly from the Labour Party, which had been in power since 1997.Some MPs also announced they were standing down after the expenses scandal the same year.Of all the 85 MPs standing down ahead of the next national poll – expected in the spring or summer of next year – 53 are Conservative.Harriet Harman, the former Labour leader, Margaret Beckett, the former foreign secretary, and Ben Bradshaw, the former culture secretary are among the 15  Labour MPs standing down.Nine SNP MPs, six independents – including former health secretary Matt Hancock – one Green and one Plaid Cymru have also decided to call it a day. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour will cap corporation tax at 25 per cent during the next parliament under a raft of new measures designed to kickstart the UK economy.Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said on Thursday that the current level “strikes the correct balance” but hinted that she could even cut it if the UK’s “competitiveness comes under threat”.The announcement came in front of gathering of business leaders at a sold-out event in London designed to win over executives ahead of a general election later this year.The event is the latest bid by Labour to woo top firms and City of London executives ahead of the next election, with Ms Reeves introduced on Thursday by the boss of HSBC’s innovation banking arm before taking part in a Q&A with Aviva chief executive Amanda Blanc.Labour did not give any clarity on the circumstances or criteria under which corporation tax could fall, but Ms Reeves was clear to business leaders it would be kept under review.“The next Labour government will make the pro-business choice and the pro-growth choice: We will cap the headline rate of corporation tax at its current rate of 25 per cent for the next parliament. And should our competitiveness come under threat, if necessary we will act.”Ms Reeves’ announcement follows a week of discussion and disagreement about Labour’s fiscal policies. The shadow chancellor made headlines when she said Labour would not reverse the removal of the cap on banker’s bonuses.She told the BBC that the party “does not have any intention of bringing that back” and that while the cap on bonuses was “the right thing to do to rebuild the public finances […] that has gone now and we don’t have any intention of bringing that back.”Her comments sparked a backlash from some on the left of the party and trade union figures, who called on Labour to rethink its decision.As chancellor, Rishi Sunak announced a rise in corporation tax from 19 per cent to the current 25 per cent rate for companies with profits over £250,000 – a move that came into force in April last year.That move had provoked the ire of some free marketeer Tories, with Liz Truss pledging but ultimately failing to scrap the rise during her short-lived premiership.Jeremy Corbyn’s left-wing manifesto for Labour in the 2019 election had included a hike in corporation tax to 26 per cent. The decision to cap corporate tax at 25 per cent is a significant climbdown from the 2019 manifesto commitment, which pledged to raise corporation tax to 26 per cent.Jonathan Reynolds labelled Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s discussion of further tax cuts in the coming months as ‘a scorched earth policy’ But today Ms Reeves said that capping the figure means “businesses can plan investment projects today, with the confidence of knowing how their returns will be taxed for the rest of this decade.”She said: “To those you in this room who might be wondering – do we really mean what we say? Has Labour really changed? Will warm words today be matched by action in government?“Be in no doubt. We will campaign as a pro-business party – and we will govern as a pro-business party.”Left-wing grassroots organisation Momentum – who backed former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn – have criticised the policy, stating that Starmer and Reeves’ “cosying up to big business” is “bad policy and bad politics.”They added: “The Labour Leadership’s priorities are deeply out of touch with the labour movement and the public at large.Voters want higher wages, more money in public services and free school meals, not bungs for bankers & gifts to the City.”Meanwhile, the British Chamber of Commerce has welcomed the announcement. Shevaun Haviland, the director general, said:“Businesses will also welcome a cap of 25% corporation tax over the life of the next parliament. This commitment will give both UK firms and global companies looking to invest here – the confidence to help the economy get back to sustainable growth.”The party have also been under fire for its gradual retreat from the £28bn green prosperity pledge, with shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds’ giving the strongest hint yet that the party may drop the £28bn figure entirely.The MP for Stalybridge and Hyde, in Greater Manchester, said it was Labour’s “ambition” to carry out the multi-billion pound investment but warned that “sometimes circumstances change”.Sir Keir Starmer is taking a much more fiscally restrained approach to Labour’s spending Sir Keir Starmer and his colleagues have been sounding warnings about the state of public finances and have suggested that the Tories may “salt the earth” to make it harder for Labour to make good on spending commitments.The party have been preoccupied with trying to re-build their fiscal reputation, following a long-held attack line by the Conservatives that they are irresponsible with public money.As a result, Sir Keir and Ms Reeves have been operating under an ethos of fiscal conservatism, with the shadow cabinet told not to make any pledges unless they are fully funded.Labour have come under fire from the Conservatives who have said their promise “isn’t worth the paper it’s written on”. Business and Trade Secretary, Kemi Badenoch MP said:“With Labour’s consistent track record of saying one thing but doing another, this is another Labour promise that isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.“Labour cannot say how they will pay for their £28 billion spending spree because they do not have a plan. That will just end up meaning higher taxes on businesses and working people.She added: “By sticking to our plan, Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives are strengthening the economy and the plan is working – with inflation more than halved and taxes cut for businesses and families.” More