UK

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch live as Nicola Sturgeon faces questions in the UK Covid inquiry on Wednesday 31 January.The former first minister will give evidence for a full day as the inquiry, before Baroness Heather Hallett, holds hearings in Edinburgh.Several figures in Ms Sturgeon’s government have already faced questions about their deletion of WhatsApp messages during the pandemic.Ms Sturgeon has conceded that messages had not been retained on her own devices but said she has managed to retrieve copies to submit to the probe.She has said informal messages were handed over to the inquiry last year.Scottish government ministers and officials have said decisions were routinely recorded on the official system even if messages were deleted in line with policy.In one message already seen by the inquiry, as former chief of staff Liz Lloyd gave evidence, Ms Sturgeon referred to then prime minister Boris Johnson as a “f****** clown.” More

Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insightRishi Sunak’s beleaguered premiership has suffered three devastating new blows which threaten to kill off any lingering hopes the Conservatives can avoid a general election defeat.The prime minister’s plans for a pre-election tax cut to woo back voters were thrown into question after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the UK government could not afford them.Mr Sunak’s troubles were compounded when business secretary Kemi Badenoch’s denials that she was plotting to succeed him blew up in her face.It emerged that she is a member of a Tory WhatsApp group called the “Evil Plotters” along with her political mentor and fellow cabinet minister Michael Gove – known for his Machiavellian scheming.And in a deeply embarrassing development for Mr Sunak’s Brexiteer credentials, it emerged that the UK population is set to rise by another 6.6 million by 2036.The Tory leader faced fresh calls from right-wingers to bring in a cap on overall numbers, as Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showed the population could hit nearly 74 million by 2036.Rishi Sunak is under fresh Tory pressure to cut migration levels The increase is starkly at odds with promises made during the 2016 EU referendum that Brexit would keep immigration down. According to the new projections, 90 per cent of the increase can be attributed to “net migration”.Suella Braverman – the sacked home secretary, seen as a potential challenger to Mr Sunak – argued that record numbers were “placing pressure on schools, the NHS and housing”. The right-wing rebel dismissed Mr Sunak’s recent tightening of visa rules as too late.Fellow hardliner Robert Jenrick, who quit as immigration minister over Mr Sunak’s “weak” Rwanda bill, joined Ms Braverman in demanding an overall cap. “This pace of change is far too fast,” he said.It came as it emerged Ms Badenoch and Mr Gove are members of a Tory Whatsapp group called the “Evil Plotters”.The business secretary is not believed to be pushing to replace Mr Sunak – but she is reportedly regularly holding lunches with key backers including housing minister Lee Rowley and digital minister Julia Lopez.A spokesperson for Ms Badenoch did not deny the WhatsApp group claim, but said: “This is exactly the sort of stirring Kemi was referring to when she told people to stop messing around on Sunday.”Kemi Badenoch said to be member of an ‘Evil Plotters’ WhatsApp groupIt has also been reported that Dougie Smith, a senior Tory strategist who has worked as an adviser to successive prime ministers, is aiding the group of rebels MPs and ex-advisers around Lord Frost who are actively plotting to oust Mr Sunak.Mr Sunak’s hopes of calming anxious Tory MPs with tax cuts at the March budget were dealt a blow when the IMF warned that tax cuts would be “very challenging to achieve” considering Britain’s growing debt and ageing population.Chancellor Jeremy Hunt dismissed the international body’s advice, arguing that “smart tax reductions” on 6 March would help grow Britain’s ailing economy.The triple whammy deals a huge blow to Mr Sunak’s current objectives, as he fights to avoid the risk of a landslide election defeat sometime this year.He and his No 10 had been pinning their hopes in silencing talk of a Tory leadership challenge by cutting income tax, alongside curbing immigration and stopping the boats with his Rwanda plan.Mr Sunak told ITV’s This Morning on Tuesday that he is “absolutely confident” about the 2024 general election campaign, despite being 20 points behind Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour in the polls.David Cameron sparked a fresh headache for Sunak by suggesting the UK could bring forward formal recognition of Palestine Elsewhere, a new Tory rift opened up over the Israel-Hamas war, after foreign secretary David Cameron suggested Britain could bring forward formal UK recognition of a Palestinian state.The key Sunak ally suggested that Britain and others could formally recognise a Palestinian state during peace negotiations, rather than wait for a final peace deal with Israel.No 10 insisted that there had been “no change” in UK policy. But it sparked a backlash among hardliners, with ex-Tory cabinet minister Theresa Villiers warning that it would only “reward Hamas’s atrocities” after the 7 October terror attack.But senior Tory MP Alicia Kearns, the head of the foreign affairs committee, welcomed Lord Cameron’s remarks as a “fundamental change in the UK position”.And leading Conservative Bob Seely – a member of the foreign affairs select committee – told The Independent that he welcomed Lord Cameron’s “constructive” idea.Mr Sunak also faces the potential for fresh trouble over Brexit, despite the DUP’s decision to back a new agreement with No 10 on trade checks and restore powersharing in Northern Ireland.Sir Jeffrey Donaldson tried to sell the deal to his party by arguing the agreement would involve “substantive” changes to trade arrangements, claiming they would mean “zero checks” on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.But Downing Street insisted the agreement would not need Mr Sunak to reopen his Windsor Framework deal with the EU.No 10 played down the significance of a minor change agreed with Brussels expanding the category of “not at risk” goods entering Northern Ireland, insisting that it was “separate” to the changes agreed with the DUP that would be set out on Wednesday.Brussels warned against any changes to the Windsor deal. “We expect the UK government to fulfil its obligations under the [Windsor] Framework,” said an EU Commission spokesperson. 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Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email The foreign minister in Poland’s new pro-European Union government said Tuesday he would like Germany’s leaders to think in a “creative” way about compensating Poland for huge losses it suffered at German hands during World War II.The request was greatly toned down from that of Poland’s previous right-wing government, which had demanded $1.3 trillion in reparations for Nazi Germany’s invasion and occupation in 1939-45.German officials have consistently said that while Berlin recognizes its historical responsibility, the issue of reparations was settled decades ago.Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski spoke at a joint news conference with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Berlin before their talks on improving bilateral relations that were strained under Poland’s previous government.“I will also ask the minister (to make) the German government think in a creative way about finding a form of compensation for these war losses, or of redress,” Sikorski said when talking about a project in Berlin to memorialize Poland’s suffering.He did not give details.Baerbock said that “confronting the suffering of millions (of people) that Germany brought on Poland remains a task for ever.” She didn’t address calls for reparations.A nation of some 31 million in 1939, Poland lost some 6 million of its citizens, half of them Jewish, during Nazi wartime occupation. It also suffered enormous damage to its industry, infrastructure and cultural heritage. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailPeter Mandelson has poured cold water on Sir Keir Starmer’s hopes of a 1997-style election landslide, warning Labour’s poll lead is “artificial” and “is going to contract”.The grandee, one of the architects of New Labour, said people “are not pricing in sufficiently” the possibility of Sir Keir failing to win a majority.He added that if Labour fails to maintain its current momentum, it is on course for “a somewhat more ambivalent result than than the opinion polls are currently suggesting”.Lord Mandelson’s comments come as his party holds a 20-point poll lead over Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, with an election expected this autumn.Lord Mandelson poured cold water on Labour’s hopes of a landslide election win But the former spin doctor to the party said Labour’s current lead is “artificial”.And, speaking on his How to Win An Election podcast, Lord Mandelson added: “Believe me, it’s going to contract. And if you consider the swing that is required by Labour to get an overall majority, at the election it is something like 11 or 12, per cent, this is huge.”He dismissed the likelihood of Labour forming a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats, but said that if voters are “unsure” about Labour the Liberal Democrats would “come into play”.“What you might find this year is if Labour falls back from its current lead, if Labour fails to maintain its present momentum and political appeal, you may find the Liberal Democrats doing better than expected,” he said.In that case “the result is somewhat more ambivalent”, he added.Lord Mandelson was known as the prince of darkness during his time as Labour’s director of communications from 1985 to 1990. He went on to serve as the Labour MP for Hartlepool from 1992 to 2004 and was elevated to the Lords in 2008.His comments come days after a major poll predicted Labour is on track for a 1997-style general election landslide.The YouGov survey said the Tories could retain as few as 169 seats, while Labour would sweep into power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a massive 120-seat majority.And, in an upset that would be reminiscent of the notorious Portillo moment when then cabinet minister Michael Portillo lost his safe Tory seat, the poll suggested chancellor Jeremy Hunt could lose his seat.Other ministers under threat include education secretary Gillian Keegan and defence secretary Grant Shapps.It was one of a series of polls showing the Conservatives facing an election nightmare, with a survey last week showing Labour an incredible 34 points ahead of Rishi Sunak’s party in 150 key marginal seats it needs to win. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email The International Monetary Fund’s chief economist has advised the U.K. government to avoid further tax cuts amid expectations Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s battered administration will do just that to win over voters in an election year.Instead of reducing taxes, the government should ensure it is prepared to meet increasing demands for spending on the National Health Service, social care and education as Britain faces sluggish economic growth and the lingering effects of high inflation, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters after the IMF released its latest outlook for the world economy.U.K. Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt is widely expected to cut taxes in the coming months as part of an effort to boost support for his Conservative Party, which trails badly in most opinion polls. The next general election must be held by Jan. 28, 2025, and is expected to take place this year.But Gourinchas said cutting taxes would be a mistake. Britain needs to make sure its finances are strong enough to accommodate increased spending demands without increasing debt as a proportion of economic output, he said.“In that context, we would advise against further discretionary tax cuts as envisioned and discussed now,” Gourinchas said.His comments came after the IMF downgraded its outlook for the U.K. economy, forecasting growth of 0.6% this year and 1.6% in 2025. In October, the IMF forecast that the U.K.’s gross domestic product would grow 2% in 2025.Hunt is focusing on longer-term projections, noting that the IMF expects growth to strengthen over the next few years.“It is too early to know whether further reductions in tax will be affordable in the budget, but we continue to believe that smart tax reductions can make a big difference in boosting growth,” he said.Concerns about responsible fiscal policies are especially sensitive for Sunak and Hunt as they came to power after their predecessors were widely criticized for announcing millions of pounds in tax cuts without saying how they would be paid for.Former Prime Minister Liz Truss was forced to resign after less than two months in office when concern about her policies sent the pound tumbling to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar and forced the Bank of England to intervene in bond markets to protect pension funds. More

Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insightNo 10 has said the agreement struck with the DUP to change post-Brexit checks for Northern Ireland will not need Rishi Sunak to re-open his Windsor Framework deal with the EU.DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has claimed the new agreement – which has won the backing of his unionist party – will involve “substantive” changes to trade arrangements.Sir Jeffrey insisted it would remove all post-Brexit checks on goods moving into Northern Ireland from Great Britain under a deal to restore power-sharing at Stormont.As well as claiming “zero checks, zero customs paperwork” on goods moving over the Irish Sea, the DUP chief also said Northern Ireland would no longer automatically have to follow EU laws.Mr Sunak’s Northern Ireland’s secretary Chris Heaton-Harris said the changes were “significant” – but refused to be drawn on the details, and made clear they would not need any approval by the EU.Mr Heaton-Harris said he would set out the full agreement with the DUP on Wednesday – and revealed that more than £3bn would be spent in Northern Ireland if the parties get back to Stormont.The DUP, Sinn Fein and other Northern Ireland parties are due to meet later on Tuesday to discuss the next steps to get the executive back up and running after the unionists two-year blockade.Sir Jeffrey Donaldson sets out DUP backing for new post-Brexit deal Mr Sunak and EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen agree a new post-Brexit deal in February 2023 – the Windsor Framework – aimed at reducing checks on Irish Sea trade.No 10 declined to confirm DUP leader Sir Jeffrey’s claim the new deal would result in “zero checks, zero customs paperwork” on goods moving within the UK.But Mr Sunak’s official spokesman said it would not affect the PM’s Windsor Framework agreement with Brussels. “It will not change the powers and freedoms we agreed … in the Windsor Framework.”Mr Heaton-Harris – asked if the Windsor deal would now have to be renegotiated – told broadcasters: “I don’t believe so.”The Northern Ireland secretary said there were “some significant changes” and the new agreement had achieved “a vast array of decent improvements to make sure our internal market works properly”.It is understood the Sunak government will introduce two statutory instruments at Westminster on Wednesday so parliament can sanction the DUP agreement – with possible changes to the Internal Market Act, rather the Windsor deal with the EU.Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton-Harris speaks to media about DUP deal on Tuesday EU chiefs warned against any changes to the Windsor deal. Asked about the new agreement with the DUP, a European Commission spokesperson said officials in Brussels would “examine those texts when the time comes”.They added: “We’ve said before, we expect the UK government to fulfil its obligations under the [Windsor] framework, as it has been doing.”Sir Jeffrey expressed hope that the Stormont institutions could be back up within days after he secured the backing of his party executive for proposals on Monday night.The DUP leader told BBC Radio Ulster that the “new arrangements remove those restrictions” set out in the Northern Ireland Protocol, part of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.“Zero checks, zero customs paperwork on goods moving within the United Kingdom,” Sir Jeffrey claimed. “That takes away the border within the UK between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and that is something that’s very important.”Sir Jeffrey announced his support for a Stormont return at post-1am press conference. He said there was “decisive” backing from the 130-strong party executive after a five-hour meeting on Monday night.Sinn Fein representatives MLA Conor Murphy, president Mary Lou McDonald and vice-president Michelle O’NeillBut support for the deal is not unanimous within the DUP – as several senior figures remain fiercely opposed to the proposed agreement to restore powersharing.Around 50 loyalist and unionist protesters assembled outside Monday night’s meeting, many carrying posters and banners warning against a DUP “sellout”. Some shouted at DUP members as they drove into the grounds of the venue.DUP efforts to keep details of Monday’s executive meeting secret were seriously undermined when Jamie Bryson, a loyalist activist and vocal opponent of the government deal, posted on X, formerly Twitter. The posts that included details of apparent attempts to find out who was leaking the information to Mr Bryson.Sinn Fein would be in line to take the first minister’s job in any restored ministerial executive in Belfast. Vice-president Michelle O’Neill will take on that role.Party president Mary Lou McDonald said she was optimistic Stormont could return before the next legislative deadline for forming an administration, next Thursday – 8 February.Mr Heaton-Harris said he hoped all the parties would agree to the changes. “I believe that all the conditions are now in place for the [Northern Ireland] assembly to return.”The return of Stormont will also see the Treasury release a £3.3bn package to support under-pressure public services in Northern Ireland. The financial package includes money to settle the demands of striking public sector workers in the region this year. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailForeign secretary David Cameron has sparked a backlash from Tory MPs after he suggested Britain could bring forward formal UK recognition of a Palestinian state.The former PM has said such a move could help to make a two-state solution – currently stalled, with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu firmly opposed – an “irreversible” process.Lord Cameron – speaking ahead of his latest visit to the Middle East – spelled out how the UK and its allies could add to pressure on Israel by considering recognising a Palestinian state at the United Nations.Palestinian ambassador to the UK Husam Zomlot pounced on his words as “significant” – but senior Conservatives warned Rishi Sunak’s foreign secretary not to push too far or too fast.Ex-Tory cabinet minister Theresa Villiers said bringing forward the recognition of a Palestinian state would “reward Hamas’ atrocities” after the 7 October terror attack.Fellow senior Tory Sir Michael Ellis said the move could risk equipping “dangerous actors” with the “trimmings and capabilities of a state”.And Stephen Crabb, another ex-cabinet minister, dsaid the gesture may be “noble”, but questioned what “talk about early recognition” of Palestinian statehood would achieve.Foreign secretary Lord David Cameron faces a backlashLord Cameron told a London reception there was a need to give the Palestinian people “a political horizon” to end the Israeli-Hamas war as he addressed a reception for Arab ambassadors in parliament.The foreign secretary suggested that Britain and others could formally recognise a Palestinian state during peace negotiations – rather than wait for a final peace deal with Israel.“We should be starting to set out what a Palestinian state would look like – what it would comprise, how it would work,” he said on Monday night.“As that happens, we, with allies, will look at the issue of recognising a Palestinian state, including at the United Nations. This could be one of the things that helps to make this process irreversible,” Lord Cameron said.The foreign secretary last week pushed Mr Netanyahu to re-consider talks aimed at a two-state solution to bring about peace for both Israeli and Palestinian people.Mr Netanyahu has rebuffed the push from western allies, including the US – saying the plan would “endanger the state of Israel”. The Israeli PM also criticised what he described as an “attempt to coerce us”.On Tuesday Mr Netanyahu ruled out an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza or the release of thousands of militants – both key Hamas demands in ongoing ceasefire talks. The Israeli leader once again vowed that the war will not end without “absolute victory” over Hamas, in remarks to reporters.Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected two-state solution Both No 10 and junior Foreign Office minister Andrew Mitchell responded to Lord Cameron’s remarks on Tuesday by insisting that there has been “no change” in UK policy. Mr Sunak’s spokesman said recognition of a Palestinian state will take place “at a time it best serves the cause of peace”.However, Labour welcomed Lord Cameron’s suggestion. Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy told MPs: “As Keir Starmer has said, statehood is not the gift of a neighbour – it is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people.”Mr Lammy added: “I welcome the foreign secretary adopting this position and rejecting the notion that recognition can only follow the conclusion of negotiations.”But as Tory MPs shared their concerns in the Commons on Tuesday, Ms Villiers said it was “really disturbing” that Lord Cameron appeared to have “changed the UK government’s approach on recognition of a Palestinian state”.“Will the minister agree with me that bringing forward and accelerating unilateral recognition of Palestinian state would be to reward Hamas’ atrocities?” she asked.Mr Mitchell replied: “There is no question of rewarding Hamas for the appalling acts they perpetrated in a pogrom on October 7.”“But the point the foreign secretary has been making is that we must give the people of the West Bank and Gaza a credible route to a Palestine state and a new future, but we must do so when the time is right.”Sir Michael also warned that “unilateral recognition of Palestinian state now” risked “equipping those dangerous actors … with the trimmings and capabilities of a state”.David Cameron has pushed Benjamin Netanyahu to consider two-state solution The Palestinian ambassador to the UK described Lord Cameron’s words as a “significant” moment – and even referred to “the Cameron Declaration” in a social media statement.Mr Zomlot said: “It is the first time a UK foreign secretary considers recognising the state of Palestine, bilaterally and in the UN, as a contribution to a peaceful solution rather than an outcome.”He said: “If implemented, the Cameron Declaration would remove Israel’s veto power over Palestinian statehood, would boost efforts toward a two-state outcome.”Lord Cameron, whose latest trip starts in Oman, is expected to say Britain will do “everything it can” to prevent the conflict from “spilling over borders” during a visit to the Middle East.In Oman, the foreign secretary is expected to meet his Omani counterpart, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, to discuss de-escalating rising tensions across the region.An attack by Iran-backed militia in Jordan over the weekend that killed three US troops and left dozens injured has stoked fresh fears of a Western confrontation with Tehran.Meanwhile, Lord Cameron is preparing to make his first major speech since returning to government in the coming weeks, according to the i.He is expected to warn the world is now more dangerous than at any time since the Cold War and say world leaders were too complacent about the long-term dominance following the fall of the Soviet Union. 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Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned Jeremy Hunt that he cannot afford to cut taxes in his March Budget.The financial agency said any tax cuts would be “very challenging to achieve” considering Britain’s ageing population and mounting debt pile. It said funding the transition to net zero and protecting the UK’s public services would need higher spending in the medium term than current government plans.Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has vowed to cut taxes at his March Budget (Daniel Leal/PA)“It is in this context that staff advise against further tax cuts,” an IMF spokesman said.But as the report came out at lunchtime, Mr Hunt said he would still consider planned tax cuts on March 6. His plans expose the split between the government and the IMF, with Mr Hunt and the Treasury arguing in favour of tax cuts to fuel growth, and the international body claiming strong public services were needed to boost the economy.The chancellor said “smart tax reductions” would help grow Britain’s ailing economy. He said it is “too early to know whether further tax reductions will be affordable, but said “we continue to believe that smart tax reductions can make a big difference in boosting growth”.Despite squeezed public finances, Mr Hunt has vowed a giveaway in March, claiming the government’s “careful management of the economy” means he can “start cutting taxes again”. His hopes were boosted last week as official figures showed government that borrowing was lower than expected. The chancellor and Rishi Sunak want to lower taxes to draw a dividing line with Labour, arguing that Sir Keir Starmer would raise taxes if he wins the keys to Downing Street.It is widely thought that the chancellor will opt for either a further cut to national insurance or lower the basic rate of income tax.IMF chief economist Pierre Olivier-Gourinchas said: “There is a need to put in place medium-term fiscal plans that will accommodate a very significant increase in spending pressures.“In the case of the UK, you might think of spending on healthcare and modernising the NHS; spending on social care; on education; you might think about critical public investment to address the climate transition; but also to boost growth.”So, it’s very important to have in place medium-term fiscal plans that accommodate these pressures at the same time ensuring that debt dynamics remain stable and contained.”That requires a combination of tax and spending measures to make sure that you can allocate the resources where they need to be allocated, but at the same time preventing your debt levels from increasing.”In that context we would advise against further discretionary tax cuts as envisioned and discussed now.”Labour said the IMF warning was “yet more evidence of 14 years of Conservative economic failure”.Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said: “The Tories have left Britain with high debt, flatlining growth, high taxes and working people worse off.”And the Liberal Democrats said the “damning” IMF verdict showed the government’s “failure on the economy”.Lib Dem Treasury spokesman Sarah Olney said: “This Conservative Government is a disaster for our economy and needs to leave Downing Street before even more damage is done.”It came as the IMF said Britain’s economy will grow slower than expected over the next two years and will be among the worst performers in the G7 group of advanced economies. The body’s economists expect UK growth to hit 0.6 per cent this year, and 1.6 per cent next.It would make the economy the second-worst performer in the G7 this year and the joint third-worst performer in 2025.The IMF’s forecast for this year is unchanged since its past report in October, but has been downgraded by 0.4 percentage points for next year. More