UK

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has insisted he is “absolutely confident” ahead of the 2024 general election, despite being 20 points behind Sir Keir Starmer in the polls.The prime minister told ITV’s This Morning that he was ready for the contest and said Britain has “turned a corner”.Mr Sunak’s assertion comes amid warnings from major pollsters that he faces a 1997-style election wipeout, and despite several relaunches of his leadership failing to make a dent in Labour’s poll lead.Rishi Sunak laughed when asked if he is going to win this year’s general election“We have clearly been through a tough time over the last year as a country,” Mr Sunak said.He added: “We are still dealing with the legacy of Covid, backlogs in the NHS, the war in Ukraine driving energy bills, but I really believe that at the start of this year we have turned a corner and are heading in the right direction.”Asked by presenters Rylan Clark and Rochelle Humes if he is “confident” about the general election, Mr Sunak said: “I am, absolutely.”He said “the plan we have put in place is working”, pointing to the reduction in inflation as evidence.And he added: “By tomorrow, everyone will have had a tax cut by the way because of our management of the economy. If you are earning £35,000 you are going to get a tax cut worth £450.“That is what we are starting to deliver, if we stick with this plan I will be able to give everyone that peace of mind that there is a brighter future for them and their children.”But despite optimism about this year’s contest, Mr Sunak played down the prospect of a longer stint in Downing Street.“With the best will in the world, I am probably not going to be here in 13 or 14 years,” Mr Sunak said.His comments came weeks after a major YouGov survey predicted the Tories are on track for a 1997-style general election wipeout.According to the poll, the Tories could retain as few as 169 seats, while Labour would sweep into power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a massive 120-seat majority.Alarmingly for the Tories, it said chancellor Jeremy Hunt could be one of 11 cabinet ministers to lose their seats, in what would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906.Other ministers under threat include education secretary Gillian Keegan and defence secretary Grant Shapps.As well as trailing Labour in the polls, the Tories are facing an assault on the right from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.The party, formerly called the Brexit Party, risks splitting the vote in tens of Tory seats, opening the door to Labour and adding to the scale of Mr Sunak’s losses. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch as Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, speaks to the press on Tuesday 30 January after a deal was struck between the DUP and British government.A deal to restore Stormont powersharing will remove all post-Brexit checks on goods moving into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, the leader of the DUP has insisted.Sir Jeffrey Donaldson expressed hope that the Stormont institutions could be back up within days after he secured the backing of his party executive for government proposals aimed at addressing the DUP’s concerns over Brexit’s so-called Irish Sea border.The parties eligible to participate in a revived ministerial executive are due to meet later on Tuesday to discuss the next steps.Sir Jeffrey conceded that his party had not got everything it wanted in the negotiations with the UK government, but he said the deal provided the basis for the DUP to drop its two-year blockade on devolution in Belfast. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNorthern Ireland’s top unionist party have announced they will end their boycott of the government after more than 700 days following a mammoth overnight meeting. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, emerged after 1am this morning to announce he had secured the “decisive” backing of his executive to resume power sharing with the nationalists. DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson (PA)“I am pleased to report that the party executive has now endorsed the proposals that I have put to them,” he told reporters in the early hours of Tuesday. “The party has concluded that subject to the binding commitments between the Democratic Unionist Party and the UK government being fully and faithfully delivered as agreed, including the tabling and passing of new legislative measures in Parliament and final agreement on a timetable, the package of measures in totality does provide a basis for our party to nominate members to the Northern Ireland Executive, thus seeing the restoration of the locally elected institutions.”The announcement spells the beginning of the end for Northern Ireland’s two-year government shutdown. The DUP has been using a veto power to block Stormont’s devolved institutions in protest at post-Brexit arrangements that have created trade barriers between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.It has been involved in protracted talks with the government aimed at securing concessions on the arrangements that would address its concerns around trade and sovereignty.Sir Jeffrey said he would drop the blockade on devolution at Stormont once the government implemented the various legislative assurances and other measures it had offered his party.The 130-strong DUP executive met for more than five hours last night to discuss the government deal aimed at addressing its concerns over post-Brexit trade barriers. The meeting was shrouded in secrecy, with participants only told of the location – the remote Larchfield Estate – three hours before they were scheduled to arrive. Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton Harris welcomed the step and made clear the government would deliver on its end of the deal.“I am grateful to Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and colleagues for the constructive dialogue over the past months and to the other political parties in Northern Ireland for the patience they have shown during this time,” he said.“I am pleased that the DUP have agreed to accept the package of measures that the UK government has put forward and as a result they are ready to return to the Northern Ireland Assembly and nominate representatives to the Northern Ireland Executive.“Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has said this is subject to the binding commitments between the Democratic Unionist Party and the UK government – I can confirm that we will stick to this agreement.“I now believe that all the conditions are in place for the Assembly to return, the parties entitled to form an Executive are meeting tomorrow to discuss these matters and I hope to be able to finalise this deal with the political parties as soon as possible.”Sir Jeffrey said DUP party officers – a key 12-strong decision making body – had also “mandated” him to move forward on the basis he was proposing.During the power sharing impasse, the DUP has used “seven tests” to measure any proposals designed to address its concerns on the trading arrangements. Sir Jeffrey said the package on the table represented “progress” across all seven tests.Support for the deal is not unanimous within the DUP and several senior figures remain fiercely opposed to the proposed agreement to restore power sharing.Asked about potential dissent within the party, Sir Jeffrey added: “I am confident that all members of the party will accept what was a decisive move by the party executive this evening.”Around 50 loyalist and unionist protesters assembled outside Monday night’s meeting at the Larchfield estate in Co Down, many carrying posters and banners warning against a DUP “sellout”.Some shouted at DUP members as they drove into the grounds of the venue.Nationalist party Sinn Fein would be in line to take the First Minister’s job in any restored ministerial executive in Belfast.Party president Mary Lou McDonald said she was optimistic Stormont could return before the next legislative deadline for forming an administration, 8 February.“I am optimistic having heard Jeffrey Donaldson’s public declaration that we will see the northern institutions back up and running before the February 8 deadline with a fully functioning Assembly and Executive and north south bodies,” she said.“Sinn Fein will now engage with the parties and both governments to ensure we now all press on without delay.“It is vital there is political stability to address the scale of the crisis across our public services.“Let’s now focus our minds on the job at hand and on the solutions required to support workers and families who want and deserve a functioning government.”Regardless of who forms the next UK government, these agreed measures will be taken forward beyond the forthcoming general electionSir Jeffrey DonaldsonDUP efforts to keep details of Monday’s executive meeting secret were seriously undermined when Jamie Bryson, a loyalist activist and vocal opponent of the government deal, posted on X, formerly Twitter, what he said were live updates from the confidential briefing – posts that included details of apparent attempts to find out who was leaking the information to Mr Bryson.Sir Jeffrey told the press conference at the Hinch Distillery in Ballynahinch that the package, which he said would be published by the government in due course, safeguarded Northern Ireland’s place in the Union and restored its place within the UK internal market.“It will remove checks for goods moving within the UK and remaining in Northern Ireland and will end Northern Ireland automatically following future EU laws,” he said.“There will be legislation to provide new legal and practical protections for the Acts of Union and which guarantees unfettered access for Northern Ireland businesses to the rest of the United Kingdom.“In the coming days, in addition to the publication of the details of the new package of proposals, the UK government will be required to deliver on the legislative commitments they have made to us.”Sir Jeffrey said he had also secured cross party support for the proposals at Westminster.“Therefore, regardless of who forms the next UK government, these agreed measures will be taken forward beyond the forthcoming general election,” he said.“Throughout this process, we have been clear and have made clear we will only be able to move after the government faithfully delivers on the implementation of its legal and other commitments.“The package of measures will require a significant number of actions to be taken and we look forward with confidence to their ongoing implementation, according to an agreed timeline.“Upon that basis, the Democratic Unionist Party would support the calling of a meeting of the Northern Ireland Assembly to elect the speaker and facilitate the nomination of ministers.”He continued: “I believe that with the faithful delivery of this package of measures, hard work and dedication, we will be able to look back on this moment as the defining time when Northern Ireland’s place within the Union was safeguarded, and our place within the United Kingdom internal market was restored.“Over the coming period, we will work alongside others to build a thriving Northern Ireland firmly within the Union for this and succeeding generations.“When our grandchildren look back on this period, they will be able to say we had a just cause, we held the line, we restored the balance and we secured a positive future for Northern Ireland and its integral place in the Union of the United Kingdom.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Northern Ireland’s largest British unionist party has agreed to end a boycott that left the region’s people without a power-sharing administration for two years, it said Tuesday.After a late-night meeting, Democratic Unionist Party leader Jeffrey Donaldson said the party’s executive has backed proposals to return to the government. He said agreements reached with the U.K. government in London “provide a basis for our party to nominate members to the Northern Ireland Executive, thus seeing the restoration of the locally elected institutions.”The breakthrough came after the U.K. government last week gave Northern Ireland politicians until Feb. 8 to restore the collapsed government in Belfast or face new elections.“All the conditions are in place for the Assembly to return,” Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris said. “The parties entitled to form an Executive are meeting today to discuss these matters, and I hope to be able to finalize this deal with the political parties as soon as possible.”The DUP walked out in February 2022 in a dispute over post-Brexit trade rules. Ever since, it has refused to return to the government with the Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein. Under power-sharing rules established as part of Northern Ireland’s peace process, the administration must include both British unionists and Irish nationalists.The walkout left Northern Ireland’s 1.9 million people without a functioning administration to make key decisions as the cost of living soared and backlogs strained the creaking public health system.The DUP quit the government in opposition to the new trade rules put in place after the U.K. left the European Union in 2020 that imposed customs checks and other hurdles on goods moving to Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K. The checks were imposed to maintain an open border between the north and its EU neighbor, the Republic of Ireland, a key pillar of Northern Ireland’s peace process. The DUP, though, says the new east-west customs border undermines Northern Ireland’s place in the U.K.In February 2023, the U.K. and the EU agreed on a deal to ease customs checks and other hurdles for goods moving to Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K. But it was not enough for the DUP, which continued its government boycott.Teachers, nurses and other public sector workers in Northern Ireland staged a 24-hour strike this month calling on politicians to return to the government and give them a long-delayed pay raise. The British government has agreed to give Northern Ireland more than 3 billion pounds ($3.8 billion) for its public services, but only if the executive in Belfast gets back up and running. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA former minister said he quit the role because he could not afford his mortgage on a salary of almost £120,000 a year.George Freeman, who quit as science minister in Rishi Sunak’s November reshuffle, said he “simply could not afford” his monthly payments after they rose from £800 to £2,000.MPs are paid £86,584 a year, with an additional £31,680 for those promoted as ministers of state.It means Mr Freeman would have been paid £118,264 per year before resigning.But despite the figure making him one of the UK’s highest earners, the Tory MP wrote on his blog that a sharp increase in mortgage payments was part of the reason he stepped down.“I was so exhausted, bust and depressed that I was starting to lose the irrepressible spirit of optimism, endeavour, teamwork & progress which are the fundamentals of human achievement,” Mr Freeman said.He added: “And because my mortgage rises this month from £800 pcm to £2,000, which I simply couldn’t afford to pay on a ministerial salary.”Mr Freeman lashed out at what he called “political economy 2.0”, saying Britain is “in danger of making politics something only Hedge Funder Donors, young spin doctors and failed trade unionists can afford to do”.Quitting his government role will allow the MP, who spent more than a decade in the life sciences and technology sectors before entering parliament, to take on lucrative jobs outside parliament, as long as they are approved by the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments (Acoba) watchdog.Interest rates spiked in the UK following Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous so-called mini budget in September 2022.They have also been pushed up by a series of Bank of England interest rate hikes in a bid to control spiralling inflation.Signs that inflation is returning to the Bank’s target and that interest rates are likely to begin falling this year have led to a series of lenders offering cheaper mortgages. But those facing renewal this year will still face paying around £400 a month more on average than they were.Resigning as science minister in November, Mr Freeman said it is “time to focus on my health, family wellbeing and life beyond the front bench”.The Mid Norfolk MP said he has championed science and technology since he was elected 13 years ago, holding five ministerial posts under four prime ministers.And in his blog post on Friday he pledged to use the build-up to this year’s general election to “share and inform the policymakers working on the manifestos across Westminster”.He said he was doing so “in the hope that the next government (whoever forms it) will be able to build on our successes and learn from our failings in delivering this vital mission”.Mr Freeman also used an interview in the New Statesman to say it is “very likely that we’re going to have a Labour government” after the election. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch live as the Rwanda bill faces a test in the House of Lords on Monday 29 January.Rishi Sunak is braced for further battle over his bill to revive the government’s asylum scheme, as the legislation faces scrutiny from a number of prominent critics.Some 71 members of the upper chamber are expected to speak at the second reading debate of the draft law.Among them is the Archbishop of Canterbury, who has voiced profound concerns about the plan to send asylum seekers who cross the Channel in small boats on a one-way flight to Kigali.Lord Carlile of Berriew, who earlier this month warned the government is moving towards “totalitarianism” in its handling of the policy, is also due to appear.The crossbench peer has suggested the Lords would seek to undo what he described as politicians “meddling” in the independent courts.Mr Sunak’s Safety of Rwanda Bill survived its third reading in the House of Commons earlier this month after the prime minister saw off a Tory rebellion which had sought to toughen the legislation. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA top Tory peer and pollster has called for a crackdown on political surveys after a row over an anonymous poll showing Labour was headed for a landslide election win.Lord Hayward has written to the elections watchdog calling for new rules on anonymously-funded polls after rebel Conservative peer David Frost organised a £40,000 survey that forecast a 1997-style victor for Sir Keir Starmer’s party. Lord Frost has refused to reveal the names of those who funded the poll, which was commissioned by a group called the Conservative Britain Alliance, who and has now been linked to an orchestrated right-wing revolt to oust the PM.Following the row, Lord Hayward wrote to Electoral Commission chairman John Pullinge and the UK Statistics Authority “in light of the imminence of a general election”.Conservative peer Lord Hayward called for tighter rules on polling ahead of a general election expected this autumn (PA)He said: “Recent events have highlighted the need for the ‘polling world’ to catch up with other aspects of politics and electioneering.”He added: “Is it really correct that a poll can be undertaken with no credible identifiable ‘beneficial owner’?”He went on to question whether British election polls are “adequately protected from external influence”, and whether polling companies should be able to correct the representation of their data before it is published in the media.YouGov later had to clarify a suggestion by the newspaper that the presence of Reform UK is the difference between Labour securing a majority and not.It said that was their own calculation based on an unreliable calculation.The YouGov poll of 14,000 people, published in the Daily Telegraph, suggested the Tories could retain as few as 169 seats, while Labour would sweep into power with 385 – giving Sir Keir a massive 120-seat majority.It predicted that chancellor Jeremy Hunt could be one of 11 cabinet ministers to lose their seats, in what would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906.Other ministers under threat include education secretary Gillian Keegan and defence secretary Grant Shapps.It sparked suggestions that the poll was commissioned as part of a plot to destabilise Rishi Sunak’s leadership of the Conservative Party. The poll was cited by senior backbencher Sir Simon Clarke when he called for Mr Sunak to be ousted and warned the Tories face a “massacre” at the next general election.Lord Frost was ordered by Lords leader Lord True to reveal the names of secret backers who funded the £40,000 poll or face losing the Conservative whip.A defiant Lord Frost refused to reveal the names of the secret donors or confirm rumours that it was bankrolled from overseas. The group behind the poll is simply called the Conservative Britain Alliance, though there is no official record of their existence or membership. More