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Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak is now more unpopular than both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn at the peak of their unpopularity, a new survey shows.The Conservative PM is struggling to reverse his party’s dire polling fortunes, and his own personal standing with the British public has a hit a new low.Mr Sunak has a net approval rating of minus 48, according to the latest IpsosUK poll – lower than either Mr Johnson or Mr Corbyn when they resigned.Mr Johnson’s approval rating was minus 45 when he was booted out of No 10 by his own party, while Mr Corbyn’s was minus 44 when he quit as Labour leader following the thumping 2019 election defeat.The Tory leader can take some small comfort from the fact is slightly more popular than Liz Truss when she left No 10 in disgrace in the autumn of 2022 with an approval rating of minus 51.IpsosUK pollster Keiran Pedley cautioned that “ratings can go up and down so Rishi Sunak’s should not be seen as set in stone”.“However, it may concern the Conservatives that the prime minister’s poll ratings are so low as we head towards a general election,” he added.Rishi Sunak under pressure to boost Tories flagging poll fortunes A leading Johnson supporter has claimed that “at least” 29 Conservative MPs have submitted letters of no confidence against Mr Sunak.Andrea Jenkyns – a Tory backbencher who has been a consistent critic of Mr Sunak – said that more than two dozen colleagues had told her they had handed in letters.“Talk of letters is always nonsense – only Sir Graham [Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee] knows how many are in,” one Sunak ally told The Independent. The senior Tory said it would be “madness” to replace the current leader before the general election.But talk of replacing Mr Sunak continues to rumble on. Right-wing Tory rebels told The Times that the party’s awful polling mean there was “nothing left to lose” in trying to replace their leader once again.“Even John Major got 31 per cent in 1997. No Conservative leader can survive being at 20 per cent for very long. If this persists until the election the Conservative party is dead for 10 to 15 years,” one said.This week’s YouGov survey gives Labour an astonishing 27-point lead over the Tories (47 per cent to 20 per cent). It follows the polling company’s MRP mega-poll which predicted the Conservatives were on course to hold just 169 sears in a 1997-style wipeout.The fresh rows came as Mr Sunak urged peers to “crack on” with the Rwanda bill in the House of Lords – saying he wanted to get the deportation flights “up and running” as soon as possible.But the latest poll shows that the public is not convinced by his Rwanda plan. A majority – 51 per cent of voters – think the PM’s deportation policy will fail to send asylum seekers to the African country, while just 21 per cent think he will succeed in getting flights started.More voters (39 per cent) back the Rwanda plan than oppose it (28 per cent), according to the Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey for the i newspaper. But the findings suggest a jadedness about the issue.Some 42 per cent of voters say Rwanda deportation flights wouldn’t influence which party they vote for, while 16 per cent said the Tory plan make them more likely to vote for a rival party. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak was accused of being “out of touch” with voters after he was captured laughing as he was challenged in the street by a woman who expressed her anger over the dire state of NHS waiting lists.Cameras caught the awkward exchange as the PM was confronted by voters in Winchester town centre about problems in the health service during a walkabout in Winchester town centre.Mr Sunak burst out laughing as the woman – a former NHS worker – told him he could solve the problems and “make it all go back to how it used to be”.Labour pounced on the uncomfortable clip and said it showed that the Tory leader “has no idea of the misery NHS patients are going through”.In an exchange caught on camera during his visit to the southern blue-wall constituency, Mr Sunak blamed striking junior doctors for the NHS backlog, telling the woman that the recent dip in the number of people waiting “just shows that when there aren’t strikes, we really can make progress”.Rishi Sunak challenged over NHS waiting lists in Winchester Mr Sunak laughed as she said: “You could make it all go back to how it used to be … where if you had a problem, you could go to the hospital.”The woman then confronted Mr Sunak about lengthy waiting times for hospital treatment, telling him: “My daughter spent seven hours waiting.”Mr Sunak appeared to turn his back on the woman when she began talking about her daughter. But he then turned to continue the conversation – saying he was “sorry to hear” that her daughter had spent seven hours in A&E.The PM reiterated that all of the disputes behind NHS strikes had now been resolved, apart from the one with junior doctors. The woman said she “hoped so” and shook his hand.Sir Keir Starmer said that the clip of Mr Sunak laughing at a voter who was worried about the NHS “reinforces what people think” about the government.The Labour leader said: “The prime minister doesn’t understand what people are going through,” adding: “We engage with our plan – we don’t laugh and walk away.”Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, said the encounter showed that Mr Sunak “has no idea of the misery” NHS patients are going through. “When Sunak asks for their vote later this year, he will get a taste of his own medicine,” he said.Liberal Democrat MP Christine Jardine said that “laughing in the face of a former health worker” as they try to explain NHS problems “is frankly shocking”.She added: “Out of touch does not even begin to describe Rishi Sunak’s attitude to the NHS. The prime minister either does not care or he does not get it.”Sunak speaking to voters in the blue-wall seatLabour has maintained its narrow lead over the Conservatives in crucial blue-wall seats, a new Redfield & Wilton poll has found. The survey has Sir Keir’s party on 31 per cent ahead of Mr Sunak’s party on 30 per cent in 42 seats in the south of England that were won by the Tories in 2019. Mr Sunak has promised to get waiting lists down as one of his five big pledges ahead of the 2024 general election, which he is planning to call in the “second half” of the year.Some 6.39 million patients across England were waiting for routine hospital treatment in November, figures suggest, which is down slightly from 6.44 million in October. But the data indicates that the NHS is still failing to hit most of its key performance targets, despite the overall drop.Just over 11,000 people in England were waiting for more than 18 months to start routine hospital treatment at the end of November, up from just over 10,500 at the end of October.A&E waiting times also worsened, with 69.4 per cent of patients in England seen within four hours in December, down from 69.7 per cent in November and against a target set for March this year of 76 per cent.Meanwhile, a leading Boris Johnson supporter has claimed that “at least” 29 Conservative MPs have submitted letters of no confidence against Mr Sunak.Andrea Jenkyns – a Tory backbencher who has been a consistent critic of Mr Sunak – said that more than two dozen colleagues had told her they had handed in letters.“Talk of letters is always nonsense – only Sir Graham [Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee] knows how many are in,” one Sunak ally told The Independent. The senior Tory said it would be “madness” to replace the current leader before the general election.The fresh rows came as Mr Sunak again urged peers to “crack on” with the Rwanda bill in the House of Lords – saying he wanted to get the deportation flights “up and running” as soon as possible.In a pointed message to the Lords, the PM said on Friday: “I would urge them strongly to crack on with it, because we all just want to get this done … the country is fed up and frustrated with the merry-go-round on this topic.”However, peers have rejected the Tory leader’s “bizarre” demand to rush through the legislation. The upper chamber has approved a two-month timetable to scrutinise the bill – refusing to move any more quickly than usual. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email European Union Commissioner for Justice Didier Reynders on Friday praised efforts by Poland’s new pro-EU government to restore the rule of law and said they may lead to the release of billions of euros in EU funds for the country that were frozen under the previous government. Reynders was holding talks in Warsaw with new Justice Minister Adam Bodnar, the foreign and European affairs ministers and parliament speakers about the steps that Poland’s month-old government is taking to reverse the controversial judicial policies of the previous administration that the EU had criticized as undemocratic. Reynders said at a news conference that he was pleased by the determination of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Cabinet in restoring the rule of law, in line with Poland’s Constitution and the requirements of the EU and the European Convention on Human Rights. He said the European Commission, the executive arm of the 27-member bloc, was supporting the government’s efforts. He expressed hope that the steps would soon allow the approval of Poland’s request for the release of about 7 billion euros ($7.6 billion) from the post-pandemic recovery funds earmarked for the country. The EU froze the money as a result of rule-of-law disputes with Poland’s previous right-wing government of the Law and Justice party.Among its key steps, Tusk’s government has imprisoned two members of the previous government who were convicted of abuse of power and document forging and is making personnel changes in vital judicial bodies and some courts where rule-of-law principles had been questioned. Bodnar’s steps have been harshly criticized by the opposition which lost power in October elections, but he told the news conference that they were well thought-out and necessary. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailChristmas saw the worst month for retail sales in nearly three years, raising the risk that the UK economy tipped into recession at the end of last year. Analysts at Capital Economics said the weak spending increased the chances that the country was now in a technical, or ‘weak’, recession. Sales by UK retailers fell at their fastest rate in nearly three years in December as consumers did some of their Christmas shopping earlier than usual.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that retail sales volumes have had the worst performance since January 2021, and are thought to have dropped 3.2% in December, down from a rise of 1.4% the month before.The figures have been seasonally adjusted, meaning the actual figures were likely to be higher than reported in November, but the rise was less than in past years.Heather Bovill, deputy director for surveys and economic indicators at the ONS, said: “Following a strong November, retail sales plummeted in December with all types of outlets being hit.Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has hinted at tax cuts before the next election “This was the largest overall monthly fall since January 2021, when the reintroduction of pandemic restrictions knocked sales heavily.“Food stores performed very poorly, with their steepest fall since May 2021 as early Christmas shopping led to slow December sales.“Department stores, clothing shops and household goods retailers reported sluggish sales too as consumers spent less on Christmas gifts, but had also purchased earlier during Black Friday promotions, to help spread the cost.“The longer-term picture remains subdued, with quarterly sales dipping, while annual sales volumes fell for the second consecutive year, to their lowest level in five years.”Alex Kerr, assistant economist at Capital Economics, said: “The fall in retail sales volumes in December was far worse than expected and suggests that the Black Friday boost to retail sales proved short-lived. Today’s release would subtract around 0.15 percentage points from real gross domestic product growth in December, which increases the chances the economy may have ended 2023 in the mildest of mild recessions.”Labour’s Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones MP, remarking on the fall in retail sales, said:“Fourteen years of Conservative economic failure have left working people worse off and are forcing families to cut back.“A decade of low economic growth has left Britain with the highest tax burden in 70 years, with families set to be £1,200 a year worse off under the Tories’ tax plans.“It’s time for change. Rishi Sunak should call an election and give the people the chance to vote for a Labour government that will get Britain’s future back.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAll Nicola Sturgeon’s pandemic WhatsApp messages have been deleted, the Covid Inquiry has heard.At a hearing in Edinburgh, the official investigation into the crisis was told that the former first minister of Scotland, had “retained no messages whatsoever”. Jamie Dawson KC, counsel to the inquiry, made reference to a document provided by the Scottish Government about what WhatsApp messages it could provide, and said that all Ms Sturgeon’s messages had been deleted.He said: “Under the box ‘Nicola Sturgeon’, it says that messages were not retained, they were deleted in routine tidying up of inboxes or changes of phones, unable to retrieve messages. “What that tends to suggest is at the time that request was made Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister of Scotland, had retained no messages whatsoever in connection with her management of the pandemic.”Lesley Fraser, the director general corporate of the Scottish government, agreed saying: “That’s what that indicates to me.”Ms Sturgeon had repeatedly refused to reveal whether she deleted messages.A spokesman for the ex-SNP leader said on Thursday: “In the interests of everyone who has been impacted by the Covid pandemic, Nicola is committed to full transparency to both the UK and Scottish Covid inquiries.“Any messages she had, she handled and dealt with in line with the Scottish Government’s policies. Nicola has provided a number of written statements to the UK inquiry – totalling hundreds of pages – and welcomes the opportunity to give oral evidence to the inquiry again this month when she will answer all questions put to her.”The Covid inquiry is currently carrying out three weeks of hearings focusing on decisions in Scotland during the pandemic, with Ms Sturgeon set to be the star witness. The inquiry has been told 28,000 messages from 85 WhatsApp groups had been handed over to Baroness Hallett and her team. Last month Rishi Sunak said he had no messages remaining from the pandemic period. The prime minister said he was not advised that he should save WhatsApp messages from his phone. Boris Johnson also told the inquiry he had been unable to retrieve his own WhatsApp messages for a crucial period at the beginning of the crisis, suggesting this was because his phone had been reset.Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross said: “Nicola Sturgeon and (her deputy) John Swinney have huge questions to answer over their conduct in the wake of this devastating revelation.“By deleting all their WhatsApp messages, they defied the inquiry’s clear instructions from June 2021 that all relevant messages had to be retained.“Their actions may be illegal and beg a very simple question: what were they trying to hide? Shamefully and outrageously for families of those who died during the pandemic, we may never know.“Nicola Sturgeon’s reputation, which has been tarnished by a series of scandals in the last year, now lies in tatters. Secrecy and evasion were the hallmarks of her government – and this shameful cover-up, which amounts to a digital torching of vital evidence, is the most scandalous example of it. “ More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has said there is “more to come” in terms of tax cuts as he prepares a pre-election bid to win votes.The prime minister is plotting a tax giveaway in his March Budget, which could be the last before voters head to the polls this autumn.With Britain’s tax burden at a post-war high, despite a national insurance giveaway in November, Mr Sunak has signalled he wants to make a fresh offer to voters.He said on Friday the 2p cut to the main rate of national insurance that came into force this month had been a “tax cut for 27 million people in work”.He added: “And we said that we do want to cut taxes for future events when we can responsibly do so.“Our priorities are very clear. It is controlling spending and welfare so that we can cut people’s taxes. The plan is working, because we are already doing it — stick with it and there is more to come.”Mr Sunak hopes a giveaway will help eat into Labour’s 18-point poll lead over the Tories.Rishi Sunak has said there is ‘more to come’ in terms of tax cuts Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has also fuelled speculation about further tax cuts on the horizon. Just weeks after the influential Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that personal taxes are still going up despite the national insurance cut, Mr Hunt said lower taxes was the “direction of travel we would like to go in”.Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Hunt said: “I look around the world and I see that the parts of the world like the United States, like Asia, that are growing the fastest, have the most dynamic economies, tend to be places with lower taxes,” he told Sky News.“And that was why in the autumn statement, we decisively cut taxes.“So my priority in the budget will be growth, because if I can grow the economy, that will mean that then we have more money for the NHS, we can relieve the pressure on families, we can invest in our brilliant armed forces.”Speculation about tax cuts has been rife since November’s autumn statement, with Tory backbenchers clamouring for the government to ease the burden.Mr Hunt had been considering cutting inheritance tax ahead of that statement, and could revive the plan before March’s statement.Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt (PA)He may also opt for a personal tax cut such as lowering the rate of income tax.Labour has accused Mr Sunak and the chancellor of offering voters a “raw deal”, claiming the PM has given out £2 worth of tax cuts for every £10 taken through higher taxes. Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves described the tax cut as a “cynical giveaway”.And Adam Corlett, principal economist at the Resolution Foundation think tank, said: “For many, particularly those earning less than £26,000, the [national insurance cut] will be offset by the tax rise that is effectively coming in April, when personal tax thresholds are frozen again.”While chancellor, Mr Sunak controversially froze the thresholds at which taxes come into effect, dragging more households into paying tax or even into higher tax brackets.Under current plans, the Resolution Foundation says anybody earning under £26,000 will be worse off, with the tax cut benefiting those earning £50,000 a year the most – to the tune of almost £500.The IFS said a worker earning the average salary of £35,000 would be £440 worse off by 2028.And overall, the tax burden is still on course to be the highest since the Second World War. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe closure of two blast furnaces at Britain’s biggest steelworks will lead to thousands of job losses and leave the UK reliant on foreign steel imports for years to come.In a fresh blow to Rishi Sunak, Tata Steel said it was cutting 2,800 jobs at its plant in Port Talbot in south Wales as it confirmed the closing of both blast furnaces at the site.Amid outrage at the scale of the job losses, the Indian-owned steel giant said it was “not feasible or affordable” to adopt a plan put forward by the GMB and Community unions to keep the furnaces open.It means that 2,500 workers will lose their jobs in the next 18 months, with another 300 to come. As well as having a devastating impact on the local community, the closures will leave Britain reliant on foreign steel imports, including from India and China.Labour said foreign powers “won’t always have Britain’s best interests at heart”, as the party condemned Rishi Sunak for failing to take up a “better” union-led plan to transition to greener production.A replacement so-called electric arc furnace, a greener way of making steel, will not come online until 2027 at the earliest. In the meantime, Britain will be forced to plug the gaps left by the Port Talbot closures with imports from abroad, which critics say will lead to higher emissions until the replacement comes online. Experts said the UK’s domestic emissions would be as much as 3 per cent lower because of the closures, but that this would be offset and could even be surpassed by an increase in Britain’s global carbon footprint once imports are accounted for.A steelworker wears a badge on his jacket outside the UK’s largest steelworks in Port TalbotRoz Bulleid, research director at the Green Alliance think tank, told The Independent: “Exactly what happens to the UK’s wider carbon footprint during the transition depends on where we get the steel from to replace British production. “Europe has a mixture of blast furnaces and lower-carbon production, while Asia has more blast-furnace production. But over time, we will see European emissions fall. This is a race to low-carbon steelmaking that the UK risks missing out on.”And, in a damning indictment of UK industry, the closures will also mean that Britain is the only G20 country that can’t make virgin primary steel. Virgin steel is used in everyday products such as tin cans. These will now have to be produced abroad, and it is unlikely that they will be manufactured in the UK again in future. The closures and job cuts come despite Tata being promised up to £500m by the UK government in a bid to keep the plant open and produce steel using more environmentally friendly methods.The Port Talbot plant is the largest steelworks in the UK and currently employs 4,000 of the company’s 8,000-strong UK workforce. The move means almost 75 per cent of workers will lose their jobs. The GMB union said the job losses are a “crushing blow to Port Talbot and UK manufacturing in general”.Charlotte Brumpton-Childs, national officer for steel, said: “It doesn’t have to be that way – unions provided a realistic, costed alternative that would rule out all compulsory redundancies.” But she said the plan has “fallen on deaf ears” and that steelworkers and their families will now suffer.Andrew Gutteridge, chair of the Multi Unions Llanwern works, said it would cause “absolute ruin” in the community, with unions estimating that each job at the steelworks creates another three in the wider economy.“Your local newsagents, your chip shops, your supermarkets – everything in this area will be affected,” he said. “This is a massive, massive kick for the whole of south Wales, really.”Tata Steel said it was ‘not feasible or affordable’ to adopt a union plan to keep the furnaces open Sir Keir said he was “very concerned” by the job losses at Tata Steel – urging Mr Sunak to listen to the “better plan” offered by unions to prevent so many redundancies.“The government said it had a plan for steel. It transpires the plan involves thousands of redundancies. There’s a better plan – a multi-union plan – that the government needs to look at again,” the Labour leader told broadcasters.Asked if he agreed that the government’s £500m investment had helped limit redundancies, Sir Keir said: “I’m not against the government investment … but their plan involves all of these redundancies when there’s a different and better plan on the table.” Under the so-called multi-union plan put forward by the GMB and Community unions, it was hoped that Tata Steel could transition Port Talbot towards greener steelmaking over a longer timeline.Had it been adopted, there would have been no compulsory redundancies, and Britain’s domestic steel supply would have been protected.In a joint statement, GMB and Community said they were “extremely disappointed” that Tata had rejected the alternative plans they presented. The unions met Tata representatives on Thursday in a last-ditch attempt to push the multi-union plan.Rishi Sunak insisted the government is ‘absolutely committed’ to British steelmaking The two unions lashed out at Unite, which also represents workers at the plant, for “undermining” the plan and for “unilaterally campaigning for discredited fantasy solutions”.And they took aim at Tata and the UK government, saying it was a “disgrace” that they appeared to be “intent on pursuing the cheapest instead of the best plan for our industry, our steelworkers and our country”.Mr Sunak said the government is “absolutely committed” to British steelmaking, adding: “I know first of all that it will be a worrying time for everyone affected.”He said the alternative was the entire plant being closed, leading to 8,000 job losses overall. “But the government worked with the company,” he said.Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford’s office condemned Mr Sunak after No 10 said he was “not available” for urgent talks requested about the potential loss of thousands of jobs.Labour’s shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds has previously attacked the government over the funding package, saying: “Only the Tories could spend £500m of taxpayers’ money to make thousands of British workers redundant.”Stephen Kinnock said the job cuts will be ‘utterly devastating’ to the community in AberavonStephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, home of the Port Talbot steelworks, said the losses will be “utterly devastating” as he described the situation as “deeply frustrating and unnecessary”.He said: “Global demand for steel is actually growing, but by pursuing a narrow electric-arc-furnace-only model, Tata Steel will be unable to seize the commercial opportunities of the future, while at the same time leaving Britain more dependent on imported steel from countries whose governments won’t always have Britain’s best interests at heart.”Tata chief executive TV Narendran said the decision was “difficult” but “we believe it is the right one”. “We recognise this proposed restructuring would have a major impact on the individuals and communities concerned, whom we will support with dignity and respect,” he added.Mr Narendran told Times Radio that the steel giant had been “struggling to survive for the last 15 years”, adding: “Obviously all that we did was not enough.”He claimed that the union plan would have cost £800m more – £600m to keep one blast furnace running, while £200m would have gone on the cost of building the electric arc furnace. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Home Office has hired an aircraft hangar and a dummy plane for security officials to practise forcing asylum seekers onto flights to Rwanda, it has emerged.As the government prepares for deportation flights to take off, security guards have undergone special training programmes to deal with disruptive people.Migrants are to be escorted one by one from a detention facility on an airbase, The Times reported, before staff mimic scenarios the Home Office expects them to encounter when putting them onboard.The first Rwanda flight is expected to take off from the Ministry of Defence airfield at Boscombe Down near Salisbury, Wiltshire, where a flight in June 2022 was grounded Scenarios staff are practising for include migrants violently refusing to board planes, Extinction Rebellion-style “play dead” protests to block flights and even dirty protests by campaigners outside the airbase.The Home Office believes five officers will be needed for each migrant being deported, The Times said.The training is taking place in an aircraft hangar normally hired for use as a film studio by production firms.The Home Office told the paper it is vital in order to ensure escorts can respond “professionally to the challenges of removing people with no right to be in the UK”.A spokesman added: “This includes practical sessions so escorts have the skills they need to deal with different scenarios. As we ramp up removal activity we will continue to ensure new escorts have the training facilities necessary.”The training emerged as Rishi Sunak gears up for a battle with the House of Lords in a bid to get planes off the ground as soon as possible.Almost two years after the deportation plan was initially announced, Mr Sunak wants to rush through a bill he believes will finally see asylum seekers deported to the east African nation.The PM said on Thursday his controversial plan is an “urgent national priority” and told the upper chamber it is “now time to pass this bill”.The prime minister urged peers to ‘get on’ and pass his Rwanda bill But peers are expected to challenge the Safety of Rwanda bill, which rules the country a safe place to send asylum seekers – despite prior attempts to do so being blocked by the Supreme Court.In a sign of the depth of opposition the prime minister faces, leading lawyer and crossbench peer Alex Carlile denounced the bill as “a step towards totalitarianism”.Mr Sunak has refused to say when flights to Rwanda will finally take off, declining to commit to them beginning before the general election expected this autumn.But Downing Street has insisted the government is planning on a timeline for the first planes to be in the air this spring.Tory former minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said he thought it was “unlikely” deportations would take place before the election because of potential legal challenges. More