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Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAccording to the latest YouGov public opinion poll the Tories are supported by a mere 20 per cent of voters. It comes as Rishi Sunak’s party descended into chaos this week, divided by his controversial Rwanda bill.Meanwhile, the Labour Party is enjoying a commanding lead of near-unprecedented proportions in recent times. With a general election looming over the UK, we wanted to hear your predictions for the dramatic months ahead in the political sphere.While some were ready to say goodbye to a Conservative Government and welcome Sir Keir Starmer to Downing Street, others were not convinced of the Labour leader.Here’s what you had to say:‘The polls are an absolute disaster for Labour’This seems to be rather strange and none of it makes sense.I can see glaring assumptions being made and herds of elephants are being ignored.The polls are an absolute disaster for Labour.The polls have been showing 20% plus leads for months.The sheer number of ‘Don’t knows’ and ‘will not vote’ , over and above the normal level renders any analysis of the polls meaningless. It looks the Tory voters have move from the ‘Conservative’ to the do not know column to try and oust Sunak. They may be holding out hope for a Priti Patel or another unhinged Libertarian to swiftly move in.In any case the Tories are both pragmatic and loyal. Even if they go into the election with the hared Sunak up top, they will troop into polling booths. They might not want Sunak, but they do want the Tories to stay in power.Labour have no idea what is going on. A 20 point lead without doing any thing at all appears so seductive and believable. When polls start to tighten as they must surely do, Labour will have no idea what to do, given they have no idea why they are twenty points ahead.They assume that wavering Tories find the Rwanda scheme and Sunak as repugnant for the same reasons we do.I think this is wrong.As well as that, the left will see that 20 point lead as permission to ‘Send a message’ by voting fringe or not voting.Theresa May suffered by being too far in front of Corbyn to be able to use fear to motivate voters. Once May dropped her social care clanger, she lost what was looking like close a three figure majority.Jim987‘Sunak has prided himself on all the wrong points’While it’s true that a single poll doesn’t necessarily equate to results, the question of can Sunak win? The answer is a resounding no. This isn’t by any special charisma or likability on Starmer’s part.Sunak has prided himself on all the wrong points in an attempt to win over the UK’s far right, and effectively made himself hated by everyone else. He keeps touting the Rwanda bill as the solution to all the conservative’s problems, and while news articles point to inner party rebellions undermining his projection of power, it misses the broader point that the majority of the UK doesn’t even want it or anyone outside of his bubble thinks immigration is the single most important problem.When Sunak kept a single seat in the House of Lords after losing 2/3, he looked at the one he kept where the overwhelming majority said it was the climate tax and what he took away from that that is “trans people and immigrants.”Sunak absolutely can’t win due to his dedication to pick out all the most perfectly wrong topics and wrong sides of them, finding ways to annoy everybody who isn’t already a loyal conservative voter.Their hope is by waiting for longer this will suddenly make everyone change their minds but it’s actually more likely to do the opposite because it continues to give more time for Sunak to simply open his mouth and find new ways to remind people how much they hate him. He can keep trying to cling to the idea, “It’s just a media narrative people hate me”, and if he tells people to start liking him, they will, but that has failed to persuade or convince anybody, except for Sunak himself.Short summary, it doesn’t take any special competence or charisma on Starmer’s part, but for Starmer, simply not being Sunak is enough.AliYis‘It’s all about Brexit’It’s all about Brexit. The pro-Europe parties currently poll about 60% – which also ties up with Brexit/Rejoin polling. A small Labour working majority is currently the most likely outcome – and also pressures Starmer to pivot back to the SM and CU.sensitiveman‘Starmer will not fix much’Predictions!?1. It will take years for the country to recover from the damage caused by Brexit and the Tory “government”.2. Starmer will not fix much but will win the next election.3. Jenrick will position himself as leader4. Life will continue…Freedom‘He may as well be wearing a blue tie’I wouldn’t trust Starmer as far as I could throw him tbh. He may as well be wearing a blue tie, but honestly, what other options are there? In my opinion the only thing possible is get Thatcher’s sibling in then get shot of him! Chance would be a fine thing, but some of his ideas are verging upon the Tory songbook and I’m pretty sure if he goes any further towards the right he will rightly get the backlash.Terts‘Any change is better than the current mess’It is time for a change. The Tories are destroying themselves and the country. Time for a new chapter hopefully after the general election (sooner the better). There will be party with a clear majority to allow for a fresh start. Any change is better than the current mess.sameoldsameold‘Boot this awful, horrid government out’If we listen to the polling of the last 15 months, we would be looking at a 1997 Blair landslide, if we listen to Sky’s Sam Coates it suggests Labour needs a electoral swing of historic proportions to gain power, which one is the likely scenario?Personally all l want is for the electorate to boot this awful, horrid government out of power for a long, long time.Witchking‘The illusion of choice’I think it will be close, we currently have the illusion of choice with Starmer who is just a humourless version of Johnson to me.Many people who would have voted Labour or Conservative will be voting for different players, like Lib Dem, Greens, or Reform, which may well dilute the effect of the Tory’s ineptitude.Nicko‘An October election at the earliest’It seems that the disgraced philanderer Johnson still has supporters in the Tory party, probably the same ones who support the return of the rather stupid Truss – no surprise there, then….. Does this gang of corrupt incompetents who have ruined Britain and its international reputation really expect to win an election, now, or for a generation to come?I predict Sunak will hang on for as long as he can; he’s too careful to make any serious mistakes, and he loves the power and the helicopters that come with it… which suggests an October election at the earliest.Sarbu‘Better to lose to Labour than chucked by your own side’I think the election will happen quite soon. The Tories are focused on self-canibalisation rather than running the country and Sunak is desperate to protect his image in the history books. So I think Downing St will have its ear to the ground and, if they detect that nearly enough have written a letter to Graham, Sunak will dash for the palace to ask for Parliament to be dissolved. Better to lose an election to Labour than to be chucked on the scrap heap by your own side.Dean‘Closer than the pollsters are predicting’The election will be closer than any of the pollsters are predicting. They haven’t been correct for the past 10 years and the electorate seems to have consistently pushed further to the right in what can only be considered as a collective act of self-harm.The gerrymandering with the boundary changes doesn’t help anyone except the Conservatives. And Starmer isn’t doing himself any favours by not taking bigger steps to distinguish Labour from the Conservatives. There’ll be a lot of apathetic voters out there considering whether its even worth going out to vote.What may be the biggest factor is the timing so here is my theory. Sunak has no mandate for the Rwanda policy. Regardless of what happens in the Commons, the House of Lords knows this, is largely against the policy and can simply slap the brakes on it for a year. Sunak will then try and call a snap election to get a mandate while also claiming how the “undemocratic Lords are obstructing the will of the people”.TheMadGeologist‘Voters have simply switched off’I’d suggest the opinion out there is way worse for the Conservatives than the one commissioned by right-wing Tories.Haven’t they realised that voters have simply switched off and are no longer listening? Every household has an NHS calamity. Nobody knows where they stand with their finances. Good luck with those seats you think are safe.ReadyforchangeTo think we only had Brexit to stop the Tory Party splitting apart… now that we have left our trading partners, friends and neighbours in the EU and have only a cold, lonely future to look forward to, the Tory Party may well split into two as their minority but nasty rightwing again want total control of everything to push their narrow minded agenda on all of us.14U‘Whatever happens struggling remains on the cards’The path the Tories are walking has lost them a lot of support of the voters. The only realistic alternative, thanks to FPTP, is Labour, but Starmer is following Tory policies with a few minor changes … and that’s it!So, the electorate has to ask themselves, do I want to keep the blue incompetence and infighting or do I want the reds that are still drifting into the wrong direction and have no rock solid plan, more of some wishy-washy ideas.Any other party, e.g. Lib Dems and Greens, have no chance in a FPTP system to reach government, especially with undemocratic tactical voting practice.Neither Tories nor Labour want a change to PR (Labour had it high on their list, but Starmer pushed it off) and aren’t interested in the EU single market/custom union, when those two subjects are needed turning points for the British democracy and economy.Whatever happens struggling remains on the cards, prosperity and proper democracy remain unreachable targets.Rasputin007‘14 years of disastrous policies’All anyone needs to do to decimate any Conservative vote is to remind the public that 14 years of disastrous policies has made the vast majority both poorer and with reduced opportunities, while a few have benefited, getting very much richer, while exploiting everyone else.Meanwhile, it is becoming apparent that their supposed prior successes have actually produced short term but unsustainable gains, damaging the country for generations.Topsham1Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.The conversation isn’t over – there’s still time to have your say. If you want to share your opinion then add it in the comments of this story.All you have to do is sign up, submit your question and register your details – then you can then take part in the discussion. You can also sign up by clicking ‘log in’ on the top right-hand corner of the screen.Make sure you adhere to our community guidelines, which can be found here. For a full guide on how to comment click here. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailChancellor Jeremy Hunt has signalled he wants to cut taxes in the Budget, as the Tories gear up for an election in the face of dire poll ratings. Tory MPs are clamouring for a move that would win votes as the latest opinion poll by YouGov shows support for the Tories is at its lowest level since Liz Truss’s final days as prime minister.Holding out the prospect of more money for the NHS, families and the armed forces, Mr Hunt said he wanted to focus on growth in the Budget on 6 March.The chancellor made clear that only unexpected bad news would prevent him from announcing a generous giveaway before a general election, expected in the autumn.The new YouGov survey found that only 10 per cent of voters under the age of 50 intended to vote Conservative in the next general election.Only 20 per cent of more than 2,000 adults polled said they would vote for Rishi Sunak’s party, while fewer than half (49 per cent) of those who backed the Tories in 2019 intend to support them again.At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Hunt said that while he had yet to see the fiscal numbers before the budget, he was hopeful of reducing taxes.“I look around the world and I see that the parts of the world like the United States, like Asia, that are growing the fastest, have the most dynamic economies, tend to be places with lower taxes,” he told Sky News.“And that was why in the autumn statement, we decisively cut taxes.“So my priority in the budget will be growth, because if I can grow the economy, that will mean that then we have more money for the NHS, we can relieve the pressure on families, we can invest in our brilliant armed forces.”He said cutting taxes was “the direction of travel we would like to go in” but it was too early to say what he would do.The chancellor told political and business leaders at the summit that the UK was “on the up and open for business”.The chancellor arrived at the summit in Davos later than other world politicians because he stayed in London to vote on the Rwanda bill on Wednesday night.He said that by the time the vote was over the only way to get to Davos in time for his meetings on Thursday was to charter a private jet.Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “You see leaders from other countries around the world are here and without that leadership from the government, we’re missing out on investment, we’re missing out on jobs and prosperity.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailIt seems that Tory popularity has plummeted to a new low – at least if you’re to believe a seat-by-seat opinion poll which suggested that the Conservatives were facing a 1997-style landslide defeat.However, on Tuesday, just one day after the aforementioned poll results were unveiled, analysis of the new constituency boundaries was published, suggesting it would be hard for Labour to win a majority. With so much contradictory information out there, I’ve been answering readers’ questions on the polls, Conservative popularity amid the Rwanda bill vote and Labour’s position in the run up to the election.It is worth noting that there was no actual contradiction between the two pieces of research, but you could be forgiven for being confused. The new boundaries research, by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, estimated that Labour needs a 12.7 per swing to win a majority – a little more than under old boundaries, which were biased against the Tories.Rallings and Thrasher’s 12.7 per cent swing equates to a Labour lead in vote share of 13.6 points, compared with an average in current opinion polls of 19 points. But Peter Kellner and Electoral Calculus suggest that, because of Labour gains in Scotland and anti-Tory tactical voting everywhere, Labour may need to be only 5 points ahead to win a majority – even on new boundaries.Here are eight questions from Independent readers – and my answers from the “Ask Me Anything” event.Q: We keep hearing about ‘swing’. But we have VERY different parties/leaders compared with the last election. When was the last time that the party offerings were so different from at the previous election?Matt HoughtonA: One of the reasons swing is such a powerful tool of analysis is that it allows us to make comparisons between political situations that are, as Matt says, very different. Current opinion polls suggest a swing of 15% from Conservative to Labour compared with the 2019 election. If reflected in actual votes, that would be unprecedented in postwar British politics: the highest swing to date was 10.2% from Con to Lab in 1997.Q: Do you think a Labour majority or a coalition with the Lib Dems is more likely after the election?David GrantA: I now think a Labour majority is more likely than a hung parliament. The opinion polls haven’t moved for a year (see above), and although they might overstate Labour’s advantage when people come to make an actual choice between Starmer and Sunak as PM, the Conservative Party seems to have decided that its best approach to the election is for many of its MPs to take their heads off and run around in circles.A separate point: if there is a hung parliament, Starmer would be PM of a minority Labour government. The Lib Dems would vote with Labour on key votes, but they would not join a coalition – what happened after the last coalition was too painful.Q: Will Sunak do the only decent step when he gets defeated with his Rwanda Bill, resign and call an election?Rasputin007A: I fear that question assumes that the government will be defeated on the Rwanda bill tonight. I think they will win reasonably comfortably. If they do lose, it would be disaster and Sunak would bring it back tomorrow as a vote of confidence. He would win it then, but the damage to the government’s standing would be so much greater. Even so, he will limp on.Q: The Independent has run a series of pieces outlining recent dire predictions for the Tories over the last week but this is not really reflected in the Wikipedia graphical summary, Over the year it shows a downtrend in both parties with a slight recent uptick last week following a down trend the week before and the latest Deltapoll poll shows only a 16% lead. A Labour win but no wipe out. This is coupled with poor performance for both Starmer and Sunak as leaders. Where is this recent enthusiasm coming from?PaddlyA: I accept that headlines sometimes give the impression of change, when the reality is that the opinion polls have been broadly unchanged for the past year. The current average Labour lead is 18-19 percentage points, which is about the same as a year ago. If that were reflected in actual votes, the result would indeed be dire for the Conservatives, with Labour winning a majority of 180-230.What was surprising about the YouGov seat-by-seat poll that was used by the prime minister’s enemies to hint that he should be replaced, is that it put the Labour majority at “only” 120.As for enthusiasm, people don’t have to be thrilled by Keir Starmer to think that Labour deserve a chance.Q: The obsession with small boats makes them look irrelevant and silly. Would it not be better for Sunak to concentrate on those issues that actually affect our everyday lives. Have they no success stories to show us after 14 years in office?SWPeteA: I think Sunak is caught in a bind on this: he had to respond to the small boats issue, but the promise to “stop the boats” was too emphatic and it does seem strange to draw so much attention to something on which most people think the government has failed to deliver.But your question identifies the bigger problem, which is the thinness of the government’s positive record. Sunak can say he saved us from recession during the pandemic, and protected people from the worst of energy price rises, but the voters seem strangely reluctant to show any gratitude.Other possible success stories include the speed of the vaccines and the fact that average earnings are now outpacing inflation, but it seems that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss between them have destroyed the Tories’ reputation in some fundamental way.Q: The Conservative Party will split into two parties. This means there will be six significant choices come any election time. Tory 1, Tory 2, Labour, Lib Dems, Green, Reform plus Nationalist Parties in Wales and Scotland.I think this will lead to a system of PR voting. Suddenly these groups will realise it’s their only chance to win a significant number of seats. How realistic do you think this is?VoxtrotA: I disagree with your prediction, Voxtrot. The first-past-the-post voting system is a strong disincentive against breakaway parties – as Change UK discovered 5 years ago, and the Social Democratic Party found 41 years ago.Proportional representation would have to come first, before one of the major parties split, and it isn’t going to happen. Keir Starmer has been emphatic in rejecting it – interestingly, unlike Tony Blair, who pretended to be in favour as long as he was leading the Liberal Democrats up the garden path.Q: I’m no fan of Sunak, but I’m a little repelled by the personal nature of the reported findings. The quoted terms “spineless and false”, and “cringe” don’t, I think, crop up all that much in everyday language, and I wonder whether they reflect some loaded wording in the poll’s questions? It matters, because if people are over-persuaded of the Tories’ desperate situation, they might not bother to vote.PeterMA: I am a strong advocate of focus-group research, but I think it needs to be reported carefully. The JL Partners poll that The Independent reported the other day was a focus group of swing voters – a small and unrepresentative group, but one which could give us some insight into thinking behind bland quantitative polling. For example, Rishi Sunak records net satisfaction of minus 42 in Ipsos’s latest poll (21% satisfied, 63% dissatisfied), and the focus group gives some clue as to the strength of feeling that lies behind these numbers.Q: Do polls point to polarisation of the vote — do you think the prevailing winds reduce the chances of success for independent candidates?Matt HoughtonA: I think the chances of success for independent candidates are always extremely low in our voting system! I don’t know if public opinion has become more polarised: I think support for Reform UK and the Greens has increased for specific reasons, namely Tory turmoil and the growing sense of urgency among young people especially about the climate crisis. But the result is almost certain to be Reform 0 or 1 seat (if Nigel Farage stands in, say, Clacton); Greens 0, 1 or 2 seats (Brighton Pavilion and Bristol West).These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by John Rentoul on Wednesday 16 January Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.For more exclusive political insight sign up to John’s weekly Commons Confidential email, exclusively for Independent Premium subscribers.All you need to do to sign up is subscribe to Independent Premium, which you can do here.When you subscribe you will be asked to select the newsletters you would like to receive – make sure you pick Commons Confidential to receive my weekly email.If you’re already subscribed to Independent Premium and want to check out our full offering of Premium and free newsletters click here. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email European lawmakers on Thursday adopted a resolution calling for a permanent cease-fire in Israel’s war against Hamas, on the condition that the Palestinian militant group in Gaza be dismantled and that all hostages it holds be released.The conflict has divided European Union countries and political groups at the legislature, and reaching a consensus on the wording of the resolution was not an easy task.The original text underlined the need for a permanent cease-fire. It was adopted after an amendment tabled by conservative lawmakers was passed, insisting that Hamas needed to be dismantled for a cease-fire to happen and calling for the immediate and unconditional release of all remaining hostages. The resolution, which is non-binding and highly symbolical, was adopted by 312 votes in favor, 131 against and 72 abstentions. It was the first time the Parliament called for a cease-fire after lawmakers in October agreed on a call for a “humanitarian pause.”The amendment insisted that all the hostages be “immediately and unconditionally released and (that) the terrorist organization Hamas is dismantled.”Palestinian militants are still putting up resistance across Gaza in the face of one of the deadliest military campaigns in recent history. More than 24,400 Palestinians have been killed. Some 85% of the narrow coastal territory’s 2.3 million people have fled their homes, and the United Nations says a quarter of the population is starving.Israel has vowed to dismantle Hamas to ensure it can never repeat an attack like the one on Oct. 7 that triggered the war. Militants burst through Israel’s border defenses and stormed through several communities that day, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and capturing around 250, taking them back to Gaza as hostages.Since the attack, the bloc has struggled to strike a balance between condemning Hamas, supporting Israel’s right to defend itself and ensuring that the rights of civilians on both sides are protected under international law.Hamas is on the EU’s list of terrorist groups.European lawmakers also expressed their “deep concern at the dire and rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip” and asked for the moribund “two-state solution” between Israel and Palestinians to be revived, and for the end of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. More

Tory rebel Robert Jenrick says he is prepared to vote against Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda billSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak is pleading with the House of Lords to back his Rwanda plan after it passed the Commons last night.In a press conference on Thursday morning, the prime minister described the bill as a “national priority” and urged the upper chamber to “do the right thing”.“There is now only one question,” he said. “Will the opposition in the appointed House of Lords try and frustrate the will of the people as expressed by the elected House?” Or will they get on board and do the right thing?”After a very short opening statement, Mr Sunak went straight on the attack against Labour, saying Keir Starmer’s party had “no plan”.He also could not guarantee that flights to Rwanda would take off before the next election, expected in the spring or autumn.Show latest update 1705589700Sunak meets Border Force staff after passing Rwanda BillRishi Sunak has met with Border Force staff after the Rwanda bill passed through the Commons.The prime minister visited workers at Gatwick Airport, where he met a sniffer dog and chatted with those present. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailOnly 10 per cent of voters under the age of 50 would vote Conservative in the next general election, according to a new poll. The YouGov survey of more than 2,000 adults found only 20 per cent said they would vote for Rishi Sunak’s party, while fewer than half (49 per cent) of those who back the Tories in 2019 intend to support the, again.But the poll lays bare just how unpopular the party is with young people, with just four per cent of those aged between 18 and 25 saying they intend to vote Conservative, and only 12 per cent of 25-49 year olds. It also shows support for the Conservatives is at its lowest level since Liz Truss’ final days as prime minister. It comes after a testing week for the prime minister, who staved off a major rebellion over his flagship Rwanda policy.Rishi Sunak has insisted his small boats plan is working despite party divisions The Rwanda bill passed its third reading on Wednesday night after days of Tory infighting, as 60 Conservatives backed rebel amendments to the government bill.Only 11 Conservative MPs voted against the government at third reading, but the highly-publicised conflict has exposed deep divisions in the Conservative party over the legislation and Mr Sunak’s leadership.Mr Sunak was also facing further criticism on Monday when the Telegraph published a YouGov survey, comissioned by a number of Tory donors led by Lord Frost, which showed the Conservatives were on track for a 1997-style electoral wipe out, set to retain as few as 169 seats.Lord Frost, who called for a new Conservative leader back in December, told the Telegraph that the only way to reverse the trend was to be “as tough as it takes” on immigration, reverse tax increases and do a U-turn on renewable energy measures.The latest survery has also revealed that right-wing party Reform UK has hit its highest ever level of support at 12 per cent, and that one in four (25 per cent) of 2019 Conservative voters now say they plan to vote for the challenger party. Reform UK leader Richard Tice has said his party will field a candidate against every Conservative MP at the next election Labour are also set to make gains, giving them a lead of 27-points – the largest since Mr Sunak became prime minister.This morning, Mr Sunak gave a press conference to assuage fears around the progress of the immigration bill and disunity in his party.He said: “The House of Commons has spoken. The Conservative party has come together. The Rwanda bill has passed. It’s now for the Lords to pass this bill too. This is an urgent national priority.”Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said has said that instead of tackling economic issues, “Rishi Sunak’s government is too busy fighting over an unworkable and expensive policy that is destined to fail.”“It just confirms how desperately out of touch and out of ideas this Conservative government is. We urgently need a general election so we can finally put an end to this cycle of Conservative chaos and get on with tackling the huge challenges facing us all,” he said. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe UK’s statistics watchdog has slammed Rishi Sunak for his repeated claim to have “cleared” the asylum backlog – and warned the assertion could erode trust in the government. Sir Robert Chote, the chair of the UK Statistics Authority, also said voters may have felt “misled”.The prime minister was accused of trying to “cook the books” and a “barefaced lie” over the assertion, made despite figures showing nearly 100,000 migrants still waiting for a decision.Mr Sunak’s home secretary James Cleverly later said it was “impossible” to forecast how long it would take to deal with the outstanding cases.The government said it had met Mr Sunak’s pledge to clear all so-called legacy asylum claims – counted as those submitted before June 2022. But official statistics also confirmed that 4,500 of those cases were still ongoing.Mr Sunak also came under fire for a tweet suggesting the government had cleared the entire backlog – as figures showed a total 98,599 asylum claims still languishing in the system.And yet on January 2 Mr Sunak posted on X, formerly Twitter: “I said that this government would clear the backlog of asylum decisions by the end of 2023. That’s exactly what we’ve done.”In a letter published on Thursday, to Liberal Democrat MP Alistair Carmichael who had raised concerns with the watchdog, Sir Robert said: “The average member of the public is likely to interpret a claim to have ‘cleared a backlog’ – especially when presented without context on social media – as meaning that it has been eliminated entirely, so it is not surprising that the Government’s claim has been greeted with scepticism and that some people may feel misled when these ‘hard cases’ remain in the official estimates of the legacy backlog.” Mr Carmichael, the Lib Dem home affairs spokesman, said Sir Robert’s letter showed once again that Mr Sunak had not cleared the asylum backlog. “Not only is the Conservative Government celebrating something that is no achievement, they are twisting the facts – as proven by the UK Statistics Authority just today,” he added. He said: “Thousands of vulnerable people are still living in limbo as they wait for their claims to be processed. The British public deserves better than this.”Mr Chote went on to say “there may be a perfectly good case for excluding cases of this type from any commitment to eliminate the backlog over the timeframe the Government chose, but this argument was not made at the time the target was announced or when it was clarified in the letter to the Home Affairs Committee.”He added: “This episode may affect public trust when the Government sets targets and announces whether they have been met in the other policy domains. It highlights the need for ministers and advisers to think carefully about how a reasonable person would interpret a quantitative claim of the sort and to consult the statistical professionals in their department.”The statistics watchdog also said it had raised concerns with the Home Office after a press release on the backlog was published but without the accompanying data “which prevented (journalists) from being able to scrutinise the data when first reporting it.” Shadow immigration minister Stephen Kinnock had accused the PM of promoting a “barefaced lie” that was “an insult to the public’s intelligence”.As the row grew, the claim was denounced as “false” by opposition parties, campaign groups and even Fraser Nelson, the editor of Tory bible The Spectator magazine, who likened the tweet to that of a “snake oil salesman” and urged the PM’s social media team to take the row “as a lesson learned”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLee Anderson has said he could not vote against Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill because Labour MPs were “giggling” at him.The ex-Tory deputy chairman, who quit on Tuesday in order to rebel over the policy, said opposition MPs were “giggling and laughing and taking the mick”, adding: “I couldn’t vote no”.In an extraordinary interview with GB News, the top Tory said he had entered the “no” lobby, in order to reject Mr Sunak’s Safety of Rwanda bill. But after two or three minutes of being mocked, outspoken Mr Anderson walked out and abstained.He said: “I was going to vote no. I went into the no lobby to vote no, because I couldn’t see how I could support the bill after backing all the amendments.Conservative MP Lee Anderson stepped down as deputy Tory chairman to rebel over the Rwanda bill (Yui Mok/PA)“I got into the no lobby and I spent about two or three minutes with a colleague in there. The Labour lot were giggling and laughing and taking the mick and I couldn’t do it: In my heart of hearts, I couldn’t vote no.“So I walked out and abstained.”He quit his role as deputy Tory chairman on Tuesday night alongside Brendan Clarke-Smith, who held the same post, saying that he could not “carry on in my role when I fundamentally disagree with the bill”. “I can’t be in a position to vote for something I don’t believe in,” Mr Anderson said. His abstention came as an expected Tory rebellion fizzled out, with just 11 Tory MPs voting against the deportation bill, including former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick.MPs passed the embattled prime minister’s controversial deportation bill by 320 votes to 276, after most Conservative rebels “wimped out” of a threatened revolt.The PM still faces a lengthy battle over the legislation in the House of Lords and the courts, however, as the government refused to say when flights to the African country might finally take off.Rishi Sunak and Lee Anderson had been close in the days before Mr Anderson resigned as Tory deputy chairman A close ally of Mr Sunak’s said it was inevitable that Tory right-wingers would “wimp out” of taking part in a revolt that could have triggered a general election, in which the party would be set to face a thumping from Labour.Mr Anderson was appointed deputy chairman of the Conservatives in February 2023 in a move Mr Sunak hoped would help the Tories remain connected to Red Wall voters who backed the party in 2019.His inability to put up with “giggling” Labour MPs is in contrast with his own propensity for making controversial comments.The ex-Tory deputy chairman has said that people who use food banks cannot cook properly, and earned the nickname “30p Lee” for suggesting people can make meals for 30p a day.And, before entering the House of Commons, Mr Anderson said “nuisance tenants” should be forced to live in tents and pick potatoes.He recently said asylum seekers arriving in the UK should be sent to the remote Scottish Orkney Islands – adding that they would be “perfect” for people fleeing persecution. More