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Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA Tory minister has appeared to rule out a May general election, suggesting voters will go to the polls this autumn.With Rishi Sunak’s party lagging Labour in the polls by 20 points, Greg Hands said the contest will be “later this year”.The trade minister was asked about mounting speculation the PM could call a snap election in May, to coincide with local elections around the country, but ruled the prospect out.Tory trade minister Greg Hands said the general election will not be in May Asked on Times Radio whether there is “a sniff” of a chance of a May general election, Mr Hands said: “No.”At the same time, Labour’s shadow paymaster general was making a bet with Sky News presenter Kay Burley that the contest would be in May.Jonathan Ashworth said: “After 14 years of the Tories… I think the British people will say it’s time for a change and will want to get rid of the Tories.“And by the way, this election is coming in May. I think it is definitely coming in May… the Conservatives are planning for that.”Mr Ashworth accepted a £10 bet for a children of alcoholics charity and called on Mr Sunak to “name that date”.Mr Sunak has previously said his “working assumption” is that he will call the election in the second half of this year, but has refused to set out a date.But expectations have been raised of a May election ahead of mooted tax cuts in Wednesday’s budget and the potential deportation flights to Rwanda could take off within weeks.Rishi Sunak has refused to say when the general election will be, suggesting it will be at some point in the second half of 2024 No10 has insisted it is committed to getting flights off the ground by the spring, which could combine with a tax giveaway and give the Tories a campaign boost.There are also growing fears Mr Sunak faces a tough set of results at the May local elections, which could destabilise his leadership.And some suggest the government could opt for a May election to limit the damage to the Conservatives, with no evidence the party can expect a turnaround in the polls.Former Tory leader Lord Hague urged the PM to “keep his options open” on the timing of the election, but added that it is “much more likely” to come late this year. Mr Sunak’s deadline to dissolve parliament in time for a 7 May election is 26 March.It comes after a shock survey on Monday revealed the party is on course for one of its worst election defeats in history.It showed for the Conservative Party has plunged to the lowest level since 1978 with just a fifth of British voters now backing Mr Sunak’s party.The Tories were 27 points behind Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, which would spell electoral oblivion for Mr Sunak’s party if replicated at a general election.The Ipsos poll, published on Monday, shows Mr Sunak could hold on to as few as 25 seats – 351 fewer than Boris Johnson won in 2019 – in what would be a historic defeat.It also predicts Sir Keir could secure as many as 537 seats – 340 more than Jeremy Corbyn managed at the last election and equating to a landslide which would eclipse Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 win.The survey showed support for the Tories at just 20 per cent, the lowest since 1978 when Ipsos started tracking the poll. Ipsos is a multinational market research firm and the poll is the latest in its monthly independent Political Monitor.In the latest survey, Labour’s support has dropped to 47 per cent from the 49 per cent it had in January.Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats were backed by 9 per cent of the electorate, while support for both the Green Party and Reform UK was at 8 per cent – double what it was in January.Ipsos’s previous lowest score for the Conservatives was 22 per cent, recorded by John Major in December 1994 and May 1995, only a few years before Sir Tony’s election win. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailJeremy Hunt could raise revenue on air passenger duty in order to fund tax cuts in this week’s Budget.The chancellor is considering a number of options that would allow him to commit to billions of pounds of personal tax cuts after recent forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) gave the chancellor less fiscal headroom than previously thought.On the list of options is an increase in air passenger duty of business travel, which would amount to a rise in business class air fares.He is also said to be considering a tax on vapes, an extension of the windfall levy on oil and gas producers, abolishing the non-dom tax loophole and abandoning perks for second homeowners who make money from holiday lets.Follow our live Budget coverage here Mr Hunt is paving the way for a mass tax giveaway in Wednesday’s pre-election Budget, with speculation around cuts to income tax or national insurance. The chancellor will unveil his spring budget on Wednesday The Treasury is said to be considering cutting 1p or 2p from national insurance or income tax. Mr Hunt told Sky News that his last cut of national insurance in the autumn statement in November was a “turning point” and he hopes “to make some progress on that journey”.The chancellor is also planning to use the Budget to insist he can make public services more efficient, having announced plans to make the civil service more productive through the use of AI and better data.Mr Hunt is widely understood to be pursuing tax cuts in the hope of drumming up support for the government, despite recent polling showing that the public do not want to see tax cuts at the expense of public spending.In a survey by the Fairness Foundation, 64 per cent of voters support keeping taxes as they are or increasing them, while just 16 per cent say they want tax cuts if it means cutting public services.Jeremy Hunt hinted that he would be looking to cut taxes but insisted it would be in a ‘responsible’ wayOn Sunday, Mr Hunt said he had a “moral duty” to put more money back in workers’ pockets, but insisted any tax giveaways would be “responsible”.Mr Hunt told Sky News: “It’s going to be a prudent and responsible budget for long-term growth.” Conservative MP Sir John Redwood told TheSunday Telegraph that tax cuts should not be paid for with tax rises and that he “would strongly recommend that they forget all these new taxes and extra taxes and get on with the real job which is lower taxes”.Mr Hunt’s spokesperson declined to comment. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAll eyes are on Jeremy Hunt this week as the chancellor is set to announce his latest spring Budget.Many will be wondering what to expect, how Mr Hunt’s statement will impact their finances, and what it signals it sends about the Tory party ahead of a looming general election.Measures including further tax cuts and public spending reductions are widely expected to be revealed on Wednesday (6 March), with senior Tories hinting that the chancellor could give the green light to either national insurance or income tax, to try and woo voters back.Asked if such cuts could come at the expense of cutting public services, the chancellor pointed to his record of championing extra investment in the NHS while he was health secretary.Another scheme Mr Hunt is reportedly looking at is a “vaping products levy” which would be imposed on imports and manufacturers of vapes to try and make them unaffordable to children.So, how will the proposals in the spring statement affect your bank balance, wage slip and disposable income – if at all? And when will any changes come into force?What will Wednesday’s announcement reveal about Mr Sunak’s plans for the Tory party – and do national insurance cuts make things harder for Labour? Will the spring statement be the last gasp of a dying government or a clever play to win back voters after a long stretch of political turmoil?If you have a question on the spring Budget, submit it now, or when I join you live at 3pm on Wednesday 6 March for the “Ask Me Anything” event.Register to submit your question in the comments box under this article. If you’re not already a member, click “sign up” in the comments section to leave your question. For a full guide on how to comment click here.Don’t worry if you can’t see your question – they may be hidden until I join the conversation to answer them. Then join us live on this page at 3pm as I tackle as many questions as I can. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailTory MP Paul Scully has announced he is stepping down at the next general election after comments he made about “no go” areas in London and Birmingham were met with uproar.Mr Scully evoked ire after he said that parts of Tower Hamlets and Birmingham Sparkhill were “no go areas” due to people “abusing” their own religion.The former minister has now announced his resignation. Posting on social media site X, Mr Scully said:“I have told my local association that I won’t be contesting the next General Election. Over the last nine years it’s been a privilege to represent in Parliament, the area which I called home for 35 years”He added: “Fuelled by division, the party has lost its way and needs to get a clear focus which I hope the budget can start to provide. It needs a vision beyond crisis management which can appeal to a wider section of the electorate including younger people…”Mr Scully came under fire for comments made during a BBC London interview last week where he suggested that “parts of” Tower Hamlets and Birmingham Sparkhill are “no-go areas mainly because of doctrine and mainly because people are sort of abusing in many ways their religion”.His comments received criticism from both Labour and the Tories, as Conservative mayor Andy Street said “it really is time for those in Westminster to stop the nonsense slurs and experience the real world. I for one am proud to lead the most diverse place in Britain.” Labour MP Jess Phillips added: “As one of the MPs for Sparkhill I am expecting an apology for this utter drivel.” Mr Scully made his comments following the suspension of former deputy-chairman Lee Anderson from the Conservative party after he refused to apologise for claiming “Islamists” had achieved “control” over London. Mr Scully said Mr Anderson was “trying to reflect” concerns about their neighbourhoods changing “in a really clumsy way”.Both Sparkhill and Tower Hamlets have large Muslim populations. Ali Milani, chairman of the Labour Muslim Network, told BBC London that Scully was perpetuating an “Islamophobic myth that has been continuously perpetuated.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAs the government prepares to unveil it’s last Spring budget before a general election, the chancellor Jeremy Hunt had his annual pre-statement grilling on the Sunday news shows.It is widely expected that Mr Hunt will look to cut taxes and commit to minimal public spending increases as the conservatives commit a last-ditch attempt to win back the electorate.But recent OBR forecasts have given the chancellor less headroom for tax cuts than previously thought, leading the chancellor to dampen expectations around the sort of tax reductions the public can expect.Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said he ‘won’t take risks’ with the UK economy Here’s a look at everything else the chancellor hinted would likely come up in Wednesday’s budget.The government has made progress on the economyWe can expect the chancellor to say the government has made good progress on the economy, as he pointed to reducing inflation and the downgraded “technical” recession. On the BBC’s show with Laura Kuennsberg, Mr Hunt said inflation had fallen from 11 per cent when Rishi Sunak became prime minister to it’s current level of 4 per cent, telling Ms Kuennsberg: “it’s fallen much faster than people predicted”.Despite the UK officially entering a technical recession last month, Mr Hunt said the recession is “much more healthy” than the Bank of England had previously thought.He added that the economy has been “much, much more resilient than people predicted”.The Bank of England said the UK fell into a ‘technical recession’ last month No radical tax-cutsThough the chancellor is a keen proponent of tax cuts, he made it clear that the government will not be committing to any radical tax reductions and was keen to manage expectations around the sort of tax-cuts that can be expected. Talking to Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Hunt said:“When it comes to tax cuts, I do believe that if you look around the world, countries with lower tax tend to grow faster — North America, Asia — and so I do think in the long run we need to move back to being a lower taxed, more lightly regulated economy.”But he cautioned:“It would be deeply unconservative to cut taxes in a way that increased borrowing, wasn’t fully funded.“If I think of the great tax-cutting budgets of the past, Nigel Lawson’s budget in 1988 — the reason that was so significant is because those tax cuts were permanent.“People need to know that these are tax cuts you can really afford, so it will be responsible and everything I do will be affordable.”Though the chancellor would not be drawn into what specific tax cuts the government is considering it is widely tipped that they may introduce further cuts to national insurance or income tax.Jeremy Hunt has said he hoped to “make some progress on that journey” of cutting taxes, describing the 2p cut to national insurance at the autumn statement as a “turning point”.Talking to Sky News he said: “All conservatives believe that the state has a moral duty to leave as much money in people’s pockets as possible because it belongs to the people who earn that money.”Fiscal rules are here to stayDespite opposition from the former Bank of England chief economist, Andy Haldane, Jeremy Hunt insisted that fiscal rules are here to stay.The sustainable investment rule aims to keep debt at a level that does not prove unsustainable or unfair to future generations.Mr Haldane told the BBC that he wanted to hear that “fiscal rules might be tweaked” as “they’re stuning growth for me right now”.He explained that the government’s own self-imposed rules around debt is “constraining our capacity to invest as a nation and therefore grow tomorrow”.However, Mr Hunt insisted that he would not alter the fiscal rules “because I think people would interpret that as Britain losing control of its finances”.He told the BBC: “The reason we have them is to give confidence to the British people and to the world that we are a country that pays back our debt. And if we didn’t have them, people would worry that Britain was going to go on an endless borrowing binge.”Hunt economic adviser Andy Haldane has called for the fiscale rules to be ‘tweaked’ There will be “no gimmicks”Mr Hunt insisted that his budget would be a “responsible” centred on a long-term plan for economic growth. When asked by Ms Kuennsberg if Mr Hunt was considering scrapping the non-dom tax scheme to fund small tax-cuts, the chancellor said the country “sees through gimmicks and we are not going to do gimmicks on Wednesday”.Though Mr Hunt did not rule out stealing the Labour policy, he suggested that all measures taken would be long-term policies as opposed to short-term fixes.Focus on public service “productivity” to unlock moneyThe government have already announced it is undertaking a “public sector productivity drive” in a bid to improve services without ramping up government spending.The announcement features a number of cost-saving measures, including the implementation of artificial intelligence and digitisation across government and the creation of 200 additional child social care places in England.Mr Hunt expanded on announcement this morning, telling the BBC that “we have to think not about the money we’re putting in but whether we can do things more efficiently so that we get more out”.Thus far, Mr Hunt has indicated that the government will not be engaging in any mass public sector spending programmes and will instead free up money by looking to eliminate Whitehall waste and focus on improving productivity and efficiency.There will be minimal public spending increasesDespite squeezed public services, Mr Hunt has maintained that the government will not commit to any mass public-sector spending programmes.The chancellor told the BBC that he didn’t believe in “forever expanding the welfare state” because “I don’t think that’s compatible with bringing the tax burden down in a society that makes work pay”.Last month left-wing thinktank the Resolution Foundation warned that the chancellor’s current spending projections mean that increasing day-to-day spending on public services by 1 per cent was a “fiscal fiction”.It explained that given health, education and defence budgets are all protected, unprotected departments, such as the Home Office, MoJ and local government will see per capita cuts of 17 per cent by 2028-29.On Times Radio, Mr Hunt said “It’s wrong to say the only way to improve public services is by putting more money in”.When asked if the government wouldn’t spend more, Mr Hunt said it was “the wrong question to ask”, but notably refused to answer if public services were in a good state right now. 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Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe threat of an imminent terror attack in the UK is rising, senior security officials have allegedly arned MPs.The Mail on Sunday has reported that politicians are increasingly being warned about the danger of terror attacks following an “upsurge in extremist activity” as a result of the conflict in the middle east.One MP with knowledge of the most recent briefings reportedly told the Mail: ‘The level of extremist chatter is off the scale. This is something they’ve seen growing and growing.’Referring to intelligence from the last two weeks, the politician added: ‘It’s like when the Twin Towers came down in 2001, there was a big spike of hate.’ MPs are reportedly concerned about the rising threat level in the UK The claims come just days after the government’s independent reviewer of terrorism said that the Israel/Palestine conflict has presented a “risk to our democracy”.Talking to Times Radio, Jonathan Hall KC said:“When you see last week, MPs literally scared to show [in parliament], apparently wanting to change their behaviour in parliament because of threats that they’ve been receiving.He added: “If those are done in order to affect the way in which the government acts and way parliamentarians operate, then actually that does begin to fall within the scope of terrorism and might even call for counterterrorism response.”In October 2021, David Amess, the Conservative MP for Southend West, was fatally stabbed at a constituency surgery in Essex. The attack was committed by a British Islamic State sympathiser and was around the time parliament voted to carry out airstrikes in Syria.Just five years earlier, Labour MP Jo Cox died after being shot and stabbed multiple times in Birstall, West Yorkshire by a right-wing terrorist. The current terrorism threat level is current at “substantial”, but the Mail reports concerns amongst MPs that it should be raised to “severe” to reflect the level of extremist chatter reaching its highest since the terror attack in New York on September 11, 2001.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak gives his speech on extremism in Downing Street In a speech last week, the Prime Minister warned that extremists are trying to “tear us apart” and called on the country to unite to ‘beat this poison’.His comments followed the election of Workers Party MP George Galloway in the Rochdale by-election, who centered his campaign on the conflict in Gaza.Mr Sunak said that it was “beyond alarming” that the Rochdale by-election “returned a candidate who dismisses the horror of what happened on October 7th, who glorifies Hezbollah and is endorsed by Nick Griffin”.Mr Galloway said he “abhors extremism” and has said he is “not responsible” for who endorses him.The prime minister has since pledged to “redouble our support for the Prevent programme”, which tries to steer people away from radicalisation, and has instructed the Home Office to use existing laws to block hate preachers from entering Britain. The Home Office has been approached for comment. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailJeremy Hunt has announced a “public sector productivity drive” in a bid to improve services without ramping up government spending.The government says its new measures are part of its plan to move on from the “high spending and high tax approach” that was necessary to “get the UK through the shocks of Covid and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”. The plans are announced just days before Mr Hunt will deliver his spring Budget in which he is widely anticipated to introduce further tax cuts in the hope of boosting electoral prospects.The £800m investment in public services represent a “new focus” on the “long-term decisions required to strengthen the economy and give people the opportunity to build a wealthier, more secure life for themselves and their family”, the Treasury said. Jeremy Hunt is thought to be considering more tax cuts as he prepares to deliver what is likely to be the last Budget before the general electionThe announcement features a number of cost-saving measures, including the implementation of artificial intelligence and digitisation across government and the creation of 200 additional child social care places in England. The government said the measures will also “free up thousands of police officer hours spent on admin” by rolling out time-saving technologies like drones. It will also see over 130,000 patients, including those waiting for cancer results, receive their test results sooner. It said the changes, due to be in Wednesday’s Budget, have the potential to deliver £1.8bn worth of benefits to public sector productivity by 2029.Mr Hunt is facing pressure to prioritise tax cuts over further public spending as Conservative backbenchers warn the chancellor that only tax-cuts can reverse their electoral fortunes. But hopes of large tax cuts have been dampened as economists have warned against any reductions in public sector spending.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that tax cuts would be “very challenging to achieve” considering Britain’s ageing population and mounting debt pile, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies said the chancellor should not announce the tax cuts unless he can “provide more detail on its spending plans”.Recent forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) have given the chancellor less fiscal headroom than previously thought, leading him to consider unexpected tax rises such as abolishing the non-dom tax status.Last week the OBR informed the government that it would have about £13bn of fiscal headroom in the spring Budget, of which Mr Hunt will leave about £6bn in reserve.Typically, chancellors leave themselves £25bn of headroom to cope with changes in interest rates and inflation without needing to change tax and spending policies, but the chancellor’s room for manoeuvre has been heavily impacted by inflation falling faster than expected, resulting in lower tax revenues, and increased borrowing costs.Bank of England figures show the UK fell into a recession in January The plans announced on Sunday show the chancellor is still eyeing up ways to reduce public spending as the treasury suggest that the proposed measures could return the UK to pre-pandemic levels of productivity.As part of the measures, the Department for Work and Pensions will “move away from paper-based communications” and planning applications will be sped up through the use of a new AI pilot. The government also plan to invest £170m into the justice system which it says will save up to 55,000 hours a year of administrative time through the digitisation of jury bundles and the introduction of new software and more robust data. Introducing the plans, Mr Hunt said: “We shouldn’t fall into the trap of thinking more spending buys us better public services.”“There is too much waste in the system and we want public servants to get back to doing what matters most: teaching our children, keeping us safe and treating us when we’re sick,” he added. “That’s why our plan is about reaping the rewards of productivity, from faster access to MRIs for patients to hundreds of thousands of police hours freed up to attend burglaries or incidents of domestic abuse.”Darren Jones MP, Labour’s shadow chief secretary to the treasury, said: “Nothing in Britain is better off after 14 years of Conservative economic failure.“Millions of people are stuck on hospital waiting lists, our schools are crumbling and our streets are less safe. And yet all the chancellor is offering is more spin without substance.”He added: “It’s time for change. Only Labour offers a long-term plan to grow our economy to deliver more jobs, more investment and to put more money in people’s pockets.” More