UK

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has said the public should look forward with “pride and optimism” to 2024 as he insisted his plan for Britain’s economy was already working.The PM urged voters to focus on the promise of a “brighter future” in a new year’s message, as he gears up for a general election campaign in the months ahead.Mr Sunak has already said he will call an election in 2024, with the Tories battling to cling on to power as opinion polls point to a huge and consistent Labour lead.The Tory leader used his message to claim he was “getting the economy growing” and promised to “further to grow our economy” next year.The PM may have met his promise to halve inflation in 2023 but a key pledge for growth was dealt a big blow earlier this month by figures showing GDP fell between July and September.Mr Sunak highlighted an upcoming cut to national insurance as an example of change under his leadership, and boasted of “decisive action” to stop migrant boats in the Channel.However, he faces calls from rebellious MPs in his own party to go further on tax cuts, and toughen up his flagship Rwanda bill to get deportation flights started by the spring.Rishi Sunak faces a struggle to push his Rwanda bill through parliament, then get flights off by springMPs in the “five families” of the Tory right – including Brexiteers the European Research Group (ERG) – have threatened to kill the bill if the government does not agree to amendments in the new year.Top legal adviser David Pannick is said have warned Mr Sunak’s government that the Rwanda bill may not get flights started as planned because it still allows individual legal appeals.A source familiar with the discussions told The Telegraph: “Lord Pannick acknowledged that without addressing individual claims the scheme would be severely impeded.”In his new year message, Mr Sunak said his “resolution” would be to “keep driving forward”. The PM said: “Inflation is set to fall further, cutting the cost of living for everyone. And we’re not stopping there.“We’re going further to grow our economy by reducing debt, cutting taxes, and rewarding hard work, building secure supplies of energy here at home, backing British business and delivering world-class education.”Mr Sunak added: “And we’re taking decisive action to stop the boats and break the business model of the criminal gangs.”The Tory leader’s focus on tax-cutting in his new year message comes after the government announced the main rate of national insurance will be reduced from 12 to 10 per cent from 6 January.There is speculation that the Tories could make more attention-grabbing pledges in the pre-election spring Budget – including ditching inheritance tax.Reports suggest death duties could possibly be slashed or scrapped, as Mr Sunak desperately looks for ways to turn around his party’s huge polls deficit and create policy dividing lines with Labour.However, former Conservative chancellor Norman Lamont has urged Mr Sunak to ignore calls from MPs on the right. The Tory grandee said he does not “buy” the argument that the tax on inherited wealth is widely hated – telling the PM to focus on cutting income tax instead.Mr Sunak also thanked “our incredible armed forces and NHS staff who take care of us all”. The message comes between strikes by junior doctors in England, with the longest walkout in NHS history due to begin on 3 January.He ended by saying: “We should look forward full of pride and optimism for what we can do together to build a brighter future for everyone. That’s what I’m determined to do, and I wish you all a very happy 2024.” By building expectations of a contest this spring, Labour is setting the stage to accuse Mr Sunak of “bottling it” if he holds on until the autumn.Sir Keir Starmer has challenged voters in his new year’s message – saying the future of Britain “rests in their hands” at the upcoming general election.The Labour leader will use his end-of-year address to deliver an election-themed message, framing 2024 as the year to “give Britain its future back”.He will say it has also been another tough year economically for millions – but that hope “is the fuel of change” and “the oxygen of a better future”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email An Albanian court on Saturday ordered house arrest for former Prime Minister Sali Berisha, who leads the opposition Democratic Party and is being investigated for possible corruption.Judge Irena Gjoka of the First Instance Special Court on Corruption and Organized Crime, which covers cases involving senior officials and politicians, accepted prosecutors’ request to put Berisha, 79, under house arrest after he violated the previous restrictive measures of reporting every two weeks. He was also barred from traveling abroad.His lawyer, Genc Gjokutaj, said the court also barred Berisha from communicating with people other than his family who lives with him, and considered the order a violation of law. Depriving Berisha of communication may become a wider political issue because he’s the leader of the main opposition party.Gjokutaj said he would appeal the court order. It is not clear how police officers would monitor Berisha at his apartment in downtown Tirana.Last week, parliament voted to strip Berisha of his legal immunity. Lawmakers loyal to Berisha tried to disrupt the session and boycotted the vote. Berisha has criticized his investigation and arrest as political repression ordered by Prime Minister Edi Rama, and has warned of “powerful protests.” In October, prosecutors publicly put Berisha under investigation for allegedly abusing his post to help his son-in-law, Jamarber Malltezi, privatize public land to build 17 apartment buildings. Prosecutors have yet to file formal charges in court and Berisha is still technically under investigation.“Rama’s New Year postcard is the arrest and isolation of the opposition leader!” Berisha’s son Shkelzen posted on Facebook. Prosecutors have said that if convicted, Berisha faces a prison sentence of up to 12 years.Berisha served as Albania’s prime minister from 2005-2013, and as president from 1992-1997. He was reelected as a lawmaker for the Democratic Party in the 2021 parliamentary elections.The United States government in May 2021 and the United Kingdom in July 2022 barred Berisha and close family members from entering their countries because of alleged involvement in corruption.Just days before the investigation into Berisha’s role in the land deal was revealed in October, opposition lawmakers have regularly disrupted sessions of parliament to protest the ruling Socialists’ refusal to create commissions to investigate alleged cases of corruption involving Rama and other top government officials.The Socialists say the plans are not in line with constitutional requirements.The disruptions are an obstacle to much-needed reforms at a time when the European Union has agreed to start the process of harmonizing Albanian laws with those of the EU as part of the Balkan country’s path toward full membership in the bloc.___Follow Llazar Semini at https://x.com/lsemini More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailFormer Conservative chancellor Norman Lamont has urged Rishi Sunak to ignore calls from his own MPs to ditch inheritance tax.The Tory grandee said he does not “buy” the argument that the tax on inherited wealth is widely hated – telling the PM to focus on cutting income tax instead.Mr Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are under pressure to deliver tax cuts by 6 March, with the PM and his chancellor said to be considering moves to scrap or cut inheritance tax.Sir Iain Duncan Smith, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and other senior Tories have urged him to get rid of inheritance tax in a bid to boost the party’s polling fortunes ahead of the general election.But Lord Lamont, chancellor under John Major between 1990 and 1993, said cutting it only benefits “a small number of people”, adding: “I don’t really buy the argument that it’s much hated by everyone.”“The largest number of people should benefit from whatever is possible,” the Tory peer told The Telegraph. “My priority would be [raising] income tax thresholds. They affect the most people.”Lord Lamont added: “I think you want to give some relief to people who have paid the price and have had to pay for some of the measures that were introduced during the [Covid] pandemic. I think the average person would like to see a little light at the end of the tunnel.”Norman Lamont was Tory chancellor under John Major Despite calls from the Tory right to scrap the “hated” inheritance tax, fewer than 4 per cent of estates in the UK pay the levy on inherited property, money and shares.The respected Institute for Fiscal Studies says the wealthiest 1 per cent of people in Britain would receive 47 per cent of the benefit of scrapping it. Inheritance tax is forecast to provide almost £10bn a year for the public coffers by 2028-29.A plan to abolish inheritance tax is being pondered as part of a “gear change” on tax, according to The Telegraph. But No 10 and Treasury sources have played down reports as speculation.Some red-wall Tory MPs have also urged Mr Sunak to bring in tax cuts for people on lower incomes – rather than cut inheritance tax for the wealthiest – in March.“We should concentrate on incomes and thresholds rather than inheritance tax. That produces more benefit for a greater number of people,” John Stevenson MP, head of the Northern Research Group, told the Daily Mail.Former minister Neil O’Brien, Tory MP for Harborough, said Mr Hunt should offer “tax cuts for those at the bottom end to help with the cost of living, and tax cuts that boost productivity”.However, many senior Tories are still pushing for the PM and chancellor to act on inheritance tax. Sir Jacob said inheritance tax was “a pernicious and bad tax, which ought to be scrapped”.Former leader Sir Iain said: “I would scrap it altogether. The political impact would be enormous.”Meanwhile, Ranil Jayawardena, chair of Liz Truss’ Conservative Growth Group, said: “Time is running out and the government needs to be bold: it’s time to scrap inheritance tax.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailTop legal adviser David Pannick is said have warned Rishi Sunak’s government that its Rwanda bill may not get deportation flights started as planned.The leading constitutional lawyer was asked by the government to help shape the legislation aimed at sending illegal migrants on one-way flights to the African country.Lord Pannick reportedly said that the bill’s allowance for individual appeal claims would limit the chances of success in deporting failed asylum seekers.A source familiar with the discussions told The Daily Telegraph: “Lord Pannick acknowledged that without addressing individual claims the scheme would be severely impeded.”Government lawyers are also believed to have warned that there was only a “50 per cent at best” chance of getting the first Rwanda flights off before the general election.Right-wing Tory MP are frustrated that Clause IV in the bill allows asylum seekers to lodge legal challenges against deportations based on individual circumstances.Dozens of hardline MPs also want Mr Sunak to go further by using “notwithstanding clauses” to opt out of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in asylum cases.The Tory leader’s bill allows ministers to disapply parts of the Human Rights Act, but does not go as far as overriding the ECHR.Senior Tory Mark Francois has warned rebel MPs could still kill the bill MPs in the “five families” of the Tory right – including Brexiteers the European Research Group (ERG) – have threatened to kill the bill if the government does not agree to amendments in the new year.Attorney General Victoria Prentis is said to have argued against notwithstanding clauses to push any further in disapplying human rights law.Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who quit in fury over the “weak” bill, told colleagues the Home Office should “take back control” after he was excluded from a No 10 meeting with the Ms Prentis, according to the Telegraph.Mr Sunak also faces a challenge by Tory moderates in the “One Nation” group who are still considering how to amend the bill in a bid to soften its impact.Moderate Sir Robert Buckland confirmed that he was also considering how it might be “tweaked” to make it comply with human rights law.However, Damian Green, the One Nation wing’s chairman, said he hoped the “third reading would go through reasonably easily” so long as Mr Sunak sticks to the current, narrow “landing strip”.Despite winning a first reading vote before Christmas, Mr Sunak only needs a rebellion of 28 Tory MPs to see his majority destroyed at the crucial third reading stage, as Labour and other parties will vote against it.The legislation allows migrants to appeal their deportation if they have “compelling” evidence that being sent to Rwanda puts them at imminent risk of serious and irreversible harm.Home Office modelling suggests 99.5 per cent of individual legal challenges submitted by asylum seekers will fail to block their deportation.But Tory critics of the plan dismissed the assessment, based on a model from March, as “outdated”. And they remain unimpressed by Mr Sunak’s claim that legal challenges will be “vanishingly rare”.Lord Pannick decline to comment. The Home Office has been approached for comment. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailFormer prime minister Liz Truss has doled out peerages to the men who played key roles in masterminding Britain’s exit from the European Union.Ms Truss – who lasted just 49 days in No 10 after she decimated the UK economy – nominated Matthew Elliott, the former chief executive of Vote Leave and pro-Brexit Tory donor Sir Jon Moynihan to sit in the House of Lords.Mr Elliot helped found the TaxPayers’ Alliance, a small-state think-tank committed to low taxes, while Mr Moynihan donated £20,000 to Ms Truss‘s leadership campaign in 2021, and is the former chairman of Vote Leave.Ruth Porter, her former deputy chief of staff at No 10 is also on the list for a peerage, but there is no such honour for Mark Littlewood, the former boss of the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA), who backed Ms Truss’ disastrous mini-Budget.Ms Truss and former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s economic plans, which included £45bn of unfunded tax cuts, triggered chaos in the financial markets and steep declines in the pound.Mr Kwarteng was promptly sacked by Ms Truss just 38 days into the job. She survived just 49 days before being replaced by Rishi Sunak in Downing Street.Labour branded the honours recommended by Ms Truss “tarnished gongs” that rewarded failed economic policies. The Liberal Democrats described it as a “shameless move”.Campaigners called for urgent reform to the “rotten and out of control” peerage system and criticised the list which proposes a new peer for every day-and-a-half Ms Truss was in office.Former chief executive of the Vote Leave Brexit campaign Matthew ElliottAs well as the three peerages Ms Truss has nominated eight people to receive honours including MBEs, OBEs and knighthoods.The list attracted considerable controversy before it was even published due to the short-lived nature of Ms Truss‘ premiership and was pushed out by No 10 at the same time as a slew of separate honours late on Friday afternoon.Also on the list is the MP for Thurrock Jacqueline Doyle-Price who is recommended for a damehood following her service as Minister of State for Industry – a position she held from September 2022 to October 2022.Another of Ms Truss‘ colleagues, Alec Shelbrooke, MP for Elmet and Rothwell, has been recommended for a knighthood for his political service as Minister of State for Defence Procurement.Other honours in the list include Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) for former special advisers Sophie Ina Jarvis and Shabbir Riyaz Merali, an OBE for Robert Butler, MP for Aylesbury, and Suzanne Webb, MP for Stourbridge, and a Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE) for Conservative Association chairman in South West Norfolk David Hills.Novelist Shirley Ida Conran, who is also on the list, donated £5,000 to Ms Truss to support activity in her constituency, according to the public register of interest. Ms Conran will become a dame for her services to mathematics education as founder of the Maths Anxiety Trust.Tory donor Sir Jon MoynihanSince leaving No 10 Ms Truss has continued to defend her free-market economic ideas, despite her disastrous tenure as prime minister leading to chaos in the money markets.Following the publication of her resignation honours list, she said: “I am delighted these champions for the Conservative causes of freedom, limited government and a proud and sovereign Britain have been suitably honoured.”Deputy Liberal Democrat Leader Daisy Cooper MP said: “This shameless move to reward Liz Truss’s car crash cronies is matched only by Sunak’s weakness in failing to block it.“Truss handing out gongs after blowing a hole in the public finances and leaving families reeling from spiraling mortgage costs calls this whole honours system into disrepute.“The honours system should celebrate hard working people who have achieved great things; sullying this celebration shows just how out of touch this Conservative Government really is.”Jonathan Ashworth MP, Labour’s shadow cabinet office minister, said: “This list is proof positive of Rishi Sunak’s weakness and a slap in the face to working people who are paying the price of the Tories crashing the economy.Former prime minister Liz Truss and ex-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng “Honours should be for those committed to public service, not rewards for Tory failure. Rather than apologise for crashing the economy and driving up mortgages rates, costing families thousands, Rishi Sunak has nodded through these tarnished gongs because he is too weak to lead a Tory party completely out of touch with working people.”Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain said: “The arrogance and incompetence of Liz Truss’ brief stint as Prime Minister caused unnecessary financial hardship for millions and was a national embarrassment. “Allowing her to bestow jobs for life to others who have caused serious harm to Britain can only increase mistrust and apathy in politics.”Willie Sullivan, senior director for campaigns at the Electoral Reform Society, said: “It will feel like an insult to many to see Liz Truss handing out peerages to friends and supporters after her disastrously short stint as prime minister. It looks like the political class dishing out rewards for failure at a time when many people are still suffering the effects from her turbulent premiership.“Liz Truss‘s resignation honours list also adds yet more peers to the House of Lords, which already has around 800 members making it the second largest legislative chamber in the world after China’s National People’s Congress.“This all highlights just how rotten and out of control the current peerages system is, and why it needs urgent reform to prevent it causing any more damage to the public’s trust in politics. It is clear this is not a fit nor proper way to choose who sits in our Parliament.“This is why we need to replace the bloated and unelected Lords with a smaller elected chamber where the people of this country, not former prime ministers, choose who sits in Parliament making the laws we all live under.” More

Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insightSenior Conservative Sajid Javid has been knighted in the new year honours list as he prepares to stand down at the general election.The former chancellor has been given the top gong despite The Independent’s revelation that he used a tax loophole to benefit from “non-dom” perks while working at the Treasury.He joins several politicians receiving honours, including Labour’s Dame Margaret Beckett, who is awarded the Dame Grand Cross.And leading Brexiteer Tim Martin – the Wetherspoon boss who remains outspoken on politics and the UK’s relationship with the EU – has been knighted.Mr Javid is the biggest political name to be recognised in the annual new year’s list, with Liz Truss’s controversial resignation honours to follow.The senior Tory, who is to stand down as the MP for Bromsgrove at the next general election, served in six cabinet roles and became the first British Asian to hold one of the great offices of state.Taking on the roles of home secretary, chancellor and health secretary during his extensive government career after entering parliament in 2010, he also put himself forward for the Tory leadership twice.Sajid Javid resigned from the Boris Johnson government on the same day as Rishi SunakIt was his sensational resignation from Boris Johnson’s cabinet in July 2022, on the same morning as Rishi Sunak, that spelled the beginning of the end for the former PM’s premiership.Mr Javid had previously left his chancellor role abruptly in 2020 after being told by Mr Johnson that he must sack all his advisers if he wished to keep his job.He recently revealed the full details of his extraordinary row with the former prime minister and former No 10 adviser Dominic Cummings. The then chancellor told Mr Johnson at a showdown meeting: “It’s either me or Cummings.”Mr Javid revealed in April that he had claimed non-domicile tax status for six years, when he was working as a banker, until 2009.But The Independent revealed last July – when Mr Javid was running for the Tory leadership – that he had preserved some non-dom tax benefits through an offshore trust until 2012, a year after he joined the Treasury as a ministerial aide.Among other politicians awarded honours this year are Mark Garnier, the Conservative MP for Wyre Forest and a former trade minister, who has been made an OBE, and the Tory MP for Erewash, Maggie Throup, who served as vaccines minister between 2021 and 2022 and also becomes an OBE.Labour’s Ms Beckett, who was the first woman to serve as foreign secretary, will become a Dame Grand Cross after already being made a Dame Commander in 2013.First elected in Lincoln in 1974, the now 80-year-old served as acting leader of the Labour Party in 1994 after the sudden death of John Smith. That year she ran for election to lead the party full-time, but lost to Tony Blair.Former acting Labour leader Margaret Beckett has been made Dame Grand CrossLabour’s Siobhain McDonagh, a party stalwart who has been an MP since 1997, will be made Dame Commander. Fellow Labour MP Yvonne Fovargue, the member for Makerfield, becomes a CBE. And their Labour colleague, mayor of Bristol Marvin Rees, is to be made an OBE.Mr Martin, the outspoken founder of Wetherspoon pubs, has been knighted in the new year’s list – an award that was reportedly pushed for by a fellow Brexiteer in government, Kemi Badenoch.According to reports in the Daily Mail, the business secretary argued behind the scenes that Brexit-supporting entrepreneurs should not be overlooked.The businessman, a vocal Brexit supporter during the 2016 referendum, has been recognised for his services to hospitality and culture. He is reported to have donated £200,000 to the Vote Leave campaign.“Everyone had a vote, everyone had a view, and I suppose I did more campaigning than most,” Mr Martin said. “I’d like to think that [the knighthood] is not for my rarely disclosed political views – I hope it is for what it says on the tin.”The founder and chair of Wetherspoon, Tim Martin, has been an avid supporter of Brexit Elsewhere, a British-born key witness at Donald Trump’s first impeachment hearing is also among those recognised in the new year honours.Fiona Hill – a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, who attracted attention as a witness at the former US president’s first impeachment trial – is appointed Companion of the Order of St Michael and St George.Professor John Edmunds, an epidemiologist who helped to advise the Boris Johnson government on handling the outbreak of Covid, has been honoured with a knighthood.The expert at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said he was “amazed” but “a little bit embarrassed” by news of the honour. He said: “I’m just a normal bloke, it’s not the sort of thing that happens to someone like me.”Erin Pizzey, a controversial feminist turned men’s rights activist, said she was “flabbergasted” to be included in the new year honours list as a CBE.Having set up the first refuge for women fleeing domestic violence in 1971, she argued that women were more likely to commit domestic violence than men, which prompted a backlash from the feminist community.Travis Frain, a survivor of the Westminster Bridge attack who has been made an OBE for his work to combat radicalism, said more support is needed to help victims of terror incidents.Mr Frain, who was hit by a car driven by Khalid Masood during the attack in March 2017, said: “My only hope is that, with this honour, I am able to continue to drive home that message to get changes that are needed.”Rishi Sunak congratulated all those who had made the list, saying they had “shown the highest commitment to selflessness and compassion” and were “an inspiration to us all”. 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Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s government has deleted an official report which found that housing asylum seekers on a barge and former airbase was discriminatory.The impact assessment – which found housing migrants on the Bibby Stockholm barge discriminated on the grounds of age and sex – was deleted from the government’s website on Friday.The move came two days after being published. A note on the government’s website said only that the report was “published in error”.Another impact assessment that made similar findings for the former RAF Wethersfield in Essex was also removed from the government’s website on Friday, a day after being published.Mr Sunak’s ministers have previously declined to publish an equality impact assessment for the highly-controversial plan to place migrants on the Bibby Stockholm on the Dorset coast.In September, then-immigration minister Robert Jenrick told Labour MP Zarah Sultana such assessments were “for internal use” and “not routinely published”.The assessment published on Wednesday found that the policy of housing up to 500 single men on the barge – currently moored at Portland – was “directly discriminating in relation to age (and) sex” because the barge is only suitable for men aged 18 to 65.Flowers are left at the entrance at Portland Port in Dorset, following the death of an asylum seeker on boardHowever, the document noted that the Equality Act allows for such discrimination if it is “justified as a proportionate means of achieving a legitimate aim”.The assessment argued that the greater need to house male asylum seekers within that age range in accommodation other than hotels justified discriminating on the grounds of age and sex.The impact assessment for the former Wethersfield airbase drew similar conclusions.Housing asylum seekers on the Bibby Stockholm and at Wethersfield has drawn huge opposition from campaigners, who have criticised conditions at both locations as “prison-like”.Charlotte Khan, head of advocacy and public affairs at Care4Calais, said the public “have a right to know how our government are treating the survivors of war, torture and modern slavery”.The charity campaigner said: “Deleting the equality impact assessments from the Home Office website may remove an official watermark from the government’s mistreatment of asylum seekers.“But, everyday, behind the barbed wire fences, people’s health and wellbeing is suffering from being held in these prison-like barges and camps,” she added.Earlier this month an asylum seeker was found dead onboard the Bibby Stockholm – sparking fresh condemnation of the radical plan.Care4Calais and police initially confirmed the news of the man’s death and MP for South Dorset, Richard Drax, said that the person had taken his own life.Charities have said they have seen a serious deterioration of people’s mental health. Care4Calais said it had regularly been reporting suicidal intentions amongst people on board with no action taken.Rishi Sunak made his pledge to “stop the boats” one of his five priorities for 2023However, The Independent understands that there are currently no plans to move asylum seekers off the Bibby Stockholm barge.The Independent revealed before Christmas that an Afghan pilot who helped Britain in its war against the Taliban is one of thousands of refugees facing homelessness after the Home Office changed its rules on evictions.As the Home Office pushes to clear the asylum application backlog, some refugees in hotels have been given as little as a week to find a new place to live.More than 13,000 refugees with recently granted asylum status have gone to councils for emergency help in 2023 so far.Mr Sunak is under pressure from Tory MPs to clear asylum seekers from hotels, get Rwanda deportation flights started and cut record levels of net migration ahead of the 2024 general election.The Home Office has been contacted for comment.If you are experiencing feelings of distress, or are struggling to cope, you can speak to the Samaritans, in confidence, on 116 123 (UK and ROI), email jo@samaritans.org, or visit the Samaritans website to find details of your nearest branch.If you are based in the USA, and you or someone you know needs mental health assistance right now, call the National Suicide Prevention Helpline on 1-800-273-TALK (8255). This is a free, confidential crisis hotline that is available to everyone 24 hours a day, seven days a week.If you are in another country, you can go to www.befrienders.org to find a helpline near you. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailKemi Badenoch is the Tory grassroots’ favourite minister of 2023 – putting her in pole position to succeed Rishi Sunak.The business secretary pipped fellow right-winger Suella Braverman in the end of year ConservativeHomepoll of party supporters.Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt was in third place in the survey, as top Tories jostle for position ahead of an expected general election defeat in 2024.Ms Badenoch – who has styled herself as the “anti-woke” Tory pushing hard on culture war issues – won 174 of the 716 votes cast in the website’s survey.Despite being sacked as home secretary in a blaze of controversy, Ms Braverman remains a favourite of the Tories’ right-wing base – taking 124 votes.While Ms Badenoch has bolstered her experience in government by heralding post-Brexit trade agreements, Ms Braverman’s push for radical action on small boats remains her best hope of appealing to the grassroots.Commons leader Ms Mordaunt – also believed to be keen to stand again if Mr Sunak if forced out after election defeat – took 85 votes in the survey of the grassroots.Tory members, who veer further to the right than the party’s MPs, will likely decide the next leader in the event of a heavy election defeat in 2024.Business secretary Kemi Badenoch frontrunner to succeed Sunak It comes as a new study found that a landslide Labour victory could push the Tory party even further to the right.A further two per cent swing to Labour would leave around 40 per cent of remaining Tory MPs in right-wing groupings – compared to only 30 per cent now – according to analysis of Electoral Calculus data.There has been mounting speculation that Mr Sunak will hold an earlier-than-expected election in the spring.Labour frontbencher Emily Thornberry claimed that a May election was the “worst kept secret in parliament”.It emerged on Thursday that chancellor Jeremy Hunt will hold the Budget on 6 March – prompting Ms Thornberry to say it “seems to confirm” an early election.’Bring it on’: Emily Thornberry says UK ‘desperate for election’“The country is desperate for an election,” the shadow attorney general told Sky News. “Bring it on.”But such claims are believed to be part of election year gamesmanship by Sir Keir Starmer’s party.By building expectations of a spring contest, Labour is preparing the ground to accuse Mr Sunak of “bottling it” if he holds on until the autumn.Mr Sunak’s closest aides remain set on an autumn election, in the hope it will give him more time to let better economic news sink in with the electorate.But some Tories are talking up an earlier contest in the belief that the party’s polling fortunes could get even worse if the Rwanda deportation plan unravelsAnd some Conservatives hope Labour will spend campaign funds earlier to avoid being wrong-footed. More