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Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNew foreign secretary Lord Cameron has added to mounting international pressure on Israel as he called for a “sustainable ceasefire” in the conflict in Gaza.In a joint intervention with Germany, the former prime minister signalled a significant shift in the government’s tone warning “too many civilians have been killed”. He also told the Israeli government it would not win its war on Hamas, which killed 1200 people in a series of terror attacks on October 7, if “its operations destroy the prospect of peaceful co-existence with Palestinians”.The warning comes just a day after Israeli troops killed three Israeli hostages being held by Hamas as they carried a white flag. It also follows the White House which has expressed concern about the failure of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to reduce devastating civilian casualties. Writing in the Sunday Times, Lord Cameron said: “Our goal cannot simply be an end to fighting today. It must be peace lasting for days, years, generations. We therefore support a ceasefire, but only if it is sustainable.”Both Lord Cameron and his German counterpart foreign affairs minister Annalena Baerbock stopped short of calling for an immediate ceasefire. There are fears that isolating Israel on the world stage could harden opinions within its leadership and prolong the conflict. “We know many in the region and beyond have been calling for an immediate ceasefire,” the article said. “We recognise what motivates these heartfelt calls.”It is an understandable reaction to such intense suffering, and we share the view that this conflict cannot drag on and on. That is why we supported the recent humanitarian pauses.”Lord Cameron returned to frontline politics last month (Dan Kitwood/PA)The conflict has so far left thousands dead and driven 85% of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million from their homes.In a warning to Israel, the two foreign ministers said: “Israel has the right to defend itself but, in doing so, it must abide by international humanitarian law.”Israel will not win this war if its operations destroy the prospect of peaceful co-existence with Palestinians. They have a right to eliminate the threat posed by Hamas.”But too many civilians have been killed. The Israeli government should do more to discriminate sufficiently between terrorists and civilians, ensuring its campaign targets Hamas leaders and operatives.”Mr Netanyahu is facing growing anger inside Israel over his government’s stance, especially from the families of hostages. In a nationwide address on Saturday, the Israeli prime minister said the killings “broke my heart, broke the entire nation’s heart,” but he indicated no change in the country’s military campaign.”We are as committed as ever to continue until the end, until we dismantle Hamas, until we return all our hostages,” he said. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak is heading for a landslide election defeat – even if his Rwanda policy gets off the ground, Britain’s top pollster has warned. Professor Sir John Curtice said Mr Sunak’s bid to use his personal appeal to lift Tory fortunes since succeeding Liz Truss has failed.In a grim seasonal message, Sir John said the prime minister faces a “very bleak situation”. The Conservatives could lose as many as 220 of their current total of 350 MPs in the election due next year, he claimed, warning they are heading for a “collapse” on a par with Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.“Sunak as a personality has failed to bring up his party,” Sir John told The Independent.The forecast came as the prime minister warned migrants could “overwhelm” countries including the UK without changes to global refugee rules, such as the Refugee Convention or the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Critics accused him of a “bidding war” with former home secretary Suella Braverman for the most “toxic” contribution to the debate. His comments were made at a festival organised by the far-right Italian leader Giorgia Meloni. Asked if the Tories would do better in the election if the PM manages to start sending migrants to Rwanda, the polling guru said: “The short answer is no. Yes, some core voters are upset (about immigration). But it’s not the core vote you need to win back – it’s those who are saying they won’t vote Conservative.”Mr Sunak had blundered by not focusing on the economy and the NHS, he argued. “People are asking two main questions: ‘Can I afford to feed my kids?’ and, ‘If I fall ill, will the NHS look after me?’“Unless they come up with better answers, this government will struggle politically,” said Sir John, who is renowned for his near 100 per cent accurate predictions on polling day.The PM is desperately hoping that rebellious Tory MPs will back his Rwanda bill, and that his first deportation flight can take off by spring, in a bid to deliver on his “stop the boats” promise.But Sir John said: “On immigration, probably the fundamental mistake the [Conservatives] are making is assuming the preoccupations of their activists and MPs are the same as the public.”Rishi Sunak claims his Rwanda bill will help him deliver his ‘stop the boats’ pledgeSir John said his own “poll of polls” analysis of five recent surveys gives Labour an 18-point lead, meaning the Tories are facing their worst-ever result at the general election.He said they would be “lucky” to win more than 200 seats in the best-case scenario for the party, adding: “They are facing a collapse on the scale of 1997. It’s a very bleak situation for the Conservatives.”The Tories were left with 165 seats in 1997, when the John Major-led party was thumped by Labour – which won a 179-seat majority.Chris Hopkins, director of Savanta, said his own company’s analysis currently has the Tories winning just under 150 seats. But he agreed with Sir John that it could be closer to 200 if enough “don’t know” voters return to the Tories.“I think Labour looks on course for a three-digit majority. We’re definitely in landslide territory. There’s no doubt the Conservatives are in deep, deep trouble,” the pollster said.Mr Hopkins said getting the one-way flights going to Rwanda may help Mr Sunak – but warned that the PM’s row with Conservative MPs over the bill could make things even worse. “The Rwanda policy is more likely to expose Tory divisions, which could add to the damage.”Mark Francois, centre, and other Tory right-wingers have threatened to ‘kill the bill’ Mr Sunak faces a major battle with his own MPs in the early months of 2024. The Tory right has threatened to “kill” the Rwanda bill if it is not toughened up, while One Nation moderates want to amend it in a bid to soften its impact. Tory peer and polling guru Robert Hayward agreed the Rwanda issue was becoming a “distraction” and was “causing the party real problems” despite immigration figuring highly as a key concern of voters.“Immigration matters to a lot of 2019 Conservative voters. And yet Rwanda is a distraction, particularly if there is a split within the party. People don’t vote for split parties,” Lord Hayward said.The elections expert said the focus on the Rwanda bill was crowding out more positive news on inflation, which has been halved since the start of 2023 as Mr Sunak promised. “The economy is the prime issue,” said the Tory peer.Dominic Grieve, the former Tory attorney general, said: “This whole Rwanda thing is an unmitigated disaster. The infighting makes the party look mad. The bill looks like it will either fail, or at least lead to very few people being deported.”The Conservative grandee said Mr Sunak had made a mistake to push on with a policy that he inherited from Boris Johnson. “It would have been a sensible decision for Sunak to say, ‘This is unworkable’, and either not pursue it or pursue only in a very low-key way.”Polling on the Rwanda plan reveals overwhelming cynicism about its potential effectiveness. Only one per cent of voters think it will stop the boats, a survey by YouGov found earlier this week. And only 18 per cent believe it will “significantly” reduce Channel crossings.Luke Tryl, UK director at the More in Common research group, said the government would struggle to claim success even if a plane leaves for Africa: “If it’s a half-empty flight, it’s not clear it’s having an impact on small boats, it’s not clear it makes much difference to voters.”The polling expert said voters in his focus groups were scathing about Tory infighting. “People say they are ‘sick of the chaos’, so Sunak is right to say ‘unite or die’. But it is an uphill struggle to present a united party now,” he said.Mr Tryl added: “The government has made Rwanda so totemic, it’s become an albatross around their necks – it means they’re not able to talk about anything else on immigration, like the Albania returns agreement or other aspects of policy.”Joe Alder, senior research associate at the JL Partners polling firm, said: “I don’t think [Rwanda flights] would turn things around. The real problem is Conservative disunity. It has been an error to let Rwanda become this totem of immigration policy.”The latest Office for National Statistics survey shows that immigration is only the seventh most important issue for Britons, behind the cost of living, the NHS, the economy, climate change, crime and housing.While the latest Ipsos polling has immigration in fourth place, recent YouGov polling finds immigration in joint second place in the public’s priorities – tied with health on 41 per cent, but behind the economy on 54 per cent. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has warned migrants threaten to “overwhelm” countries including the UK unless radical action is taken – as he vowed to push for reforms to the global rules on refugees. The prime minister also said that failing to tackle illegal migration would “destroy the public’s faith” in politicians and “our very systems of government” during a conference organised by the far-right Italian leader Giorgia Meloni.In his speech in Rome, he warned that “enemy” states were deliberately “driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies”.And he invoked Margaret Thatcher’s “radicalism” as he tried to save his controversial plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, which has come under fire from MPs on all sides of his party.His comments appeared to echo the harder language on migration of his sacked home secretary Suella Braverman. She was condemned last year for claiming the UK faced an “invasion” on its south coast. Critics accused him of using her “playbook” and said the Tories were in a “bidding war to see who can make the most toxic contribution to the debate”.A day after a migrant died while trying to cross the English Channel, Mr Sunak also warned that “if we don’t fix this problem now, the boats will keep coming and more lives will be lost at sea.”“If that requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, we must do that,” he added.Government sources said this could include a host of post-war agreements such as the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and the Refugee Convention, sentiments that were welcomed by Tory MPs on the right of the party. In Italy, Mr Sunak also held talks with Ms Meloni and Albania’s prime minister Edi Rama. With the former, he agreed to jointly fund a plan to return migrants in Tunisia, just across the sea from Italy, to their home countries. In his speech, Mr Sunak said no issue required “Thatcher’s radicalism and drive” more than tackling migration. As he praised the Italian prime minister, he said they were both “determined to break the business model” of these criminal gangs who traffic people in small boats.Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni with Rishi Sunak as he finishes his speech in Rome on SaturdayThe speech was delivered at the Atreju festival hosted by Ms Meloni’s populist Brothers of Italy party and bizarrely named after a character from the 1984 children’s fantasy film The NeverEnding Story. To applause, Mr Sunak told the crowd that if tackling illegal migration “requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, we must do that. “Because if we don’t fix this problem now, the boats will keep coming and more lives will be lost at sea.”He added: “Our opponents just want to ignore this issue. They want to put their heads in the sand and hope it goes away. Well, let me tell them, it won’t.”Mr Sunak said a lack of action would mean “our enemies will see how unable we are to deal with this and so will increasingly use migration as a weapon: deliberately driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies.”Russia has already been accused by Finland of sending migrants to the European Union to destabilise the bloc.Mr Sunak said: “If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries, and our capacity to help those who need our help most.“The costs of accommodating these people will anger our citizens, who won’t understand why their money should have to be spent on dealing with the consequences of this evil trade. It will destroy the public’s faith not just in us as politicians but in our very systems of government.”Suella Braverman claimed in a speech earlier this year that as many as 780 million people would be eligible to claim asylumLiberal Democrat home affairs spokesperson Alistair Carmichael accused Mr Sunak of using Ms Braverman’s “playbook”. He said: “Rishi Sunak is so desperate he’s reaching for the Braverman playbook, using divisive rhetoric to try to cover up his failures on asylum.Infighting within the Conservative Party is now generating a bidding war to see who can make the most toxic contribution to the debate.“It is also a bit rich to say we need international cooperation when Conservative ministers are trashing the very treaties that we have signed up to to deal with this. Who would want to cooperate with a government that is happy to disregard our legal obligations? Instead of posturing, Rishi Sunak would do better to focus on tackling the asylum backlog that is leaving people in limbo and costing taxpayers billions.”But Mr Sunak’s comments were welcomed by MPs on the right of the Tory party. Danny Kruger, the leader of the New Conservatives group, said he was “very encouraged by the PM’s speech … suggesting an international agreement to rewrite refugee and human rights rules”. Earlier this year, Ms Braverman, while she was still home secretary, used a widely disparaged speech in the US to warn that as many as 780 million people would be eligible to claim asylum without radical reform of global refugee rules.She also faced a ferocious backlash after she singled out gay people to say “simply being gay, a woman or fearful of discrimination” was now effectively enough to qualify. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch as Rishi Sunak speaks at Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing political festival in Italy on Saturday, 16 December.The UK prime minister attended the Christmas party for young conservatives called “Atreju”, organised by the Brothers of Italy party.The festival, which has been running since 1998, is named after the main character in the fantasy book and film “The Neverending Story.”Mr Sunak was expected to be accompanied by Spanish far-right Vox party leader Santiago Abascal, and Albanian at the festival in Rome.It followed an appearance by Elon Musk at the annual event, which has been frequented by former Trump ally Steve Bannon and Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban in the past.Mr Sunak will also hold talks with the Italian and Albanian leaders, in which illegal migration is expected to top the agenda.Downing Street said that discussions would focus on “joint efforts to tackle illegal immigration and organised crime”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA top judge has said anyone who lied to the phone hacking inquiry should be prosecuted for perjury after a court found there could be “no doubt” editors at Mirror Group Newspapers (MGN) knew about intercepted voicemails. Sir Alan Moses, a former chair of press regulator the Independent Press Standards Organisation (Ipso), also hit out at the former Daily Mirror editor Piers Morgan, accusing him of epitomising the “shameful reaction of people who used to be editors”. After an extraordinary High Court ruling on Friday, Hollywood actor Steve Coogan also called for a police investigation. Prince Harry accused MGN of “vendetta journalism” after the judge in the case found that he was the victim of phone hacking and awarded him damages. The findings accepted evidence by royal author Omid Scobie that Mr Morgan had been aware of voicemail interception over a story about pop star Kylie Minogue. In response Mr Morgan launched a stinging attack on the prince, accusing him of attempting to “destroy the British monarchy”.In a statement outside his home, he also said: “I’ve never hacked a phone or told anyone else to and nobody has provided any actual evidence to prove that I did.”The judge also ruled that “extensive” phone hacking took place at the Daily Mirror, the Sunday Mirror and the Sunday People, from 2006 to 2011.In his judgment, Mr Justice Fancourt concluded “there can be no doubt” that editors of MGN’s titles knew about voicemail interception but did not tell the company’s board or chief executive about it.Sir Alan, a former lord justice of appeal, warned: “The whole system has never held to account those in charge, the proprietors and the editors [… because they] poured money into settlement and only people like Prince Harry had the resources to pursue the case.”Prince Harry accused MGN of ‘vendetta journalism’ after the judge in the case found that he was the victim of phone hacking and awarded him damagesHe told the BBC’s Today programme: “If people lied to Sir Brian [Leveson, the chair of the official inquiry into phone hacking], then they ought to be prosecuted for perjury”. Mr Coogan also called for a police investigation. He told the same radio programme: “The police should investigate, they should do their job.”He also questioned what action Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer would take. “What is Keir Starmer going to do about it? Because let’s face, it he is going to be the next prime minister. Is he going to fold like a deckchair?” he said. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSadiq Khan has rejected a call to send cars that will be scrapped under his controversial Ulez scheme to Ukraine, according to reports. The mayor of Kyiv had urged the vehicles be transported to his war-torn country, where he said they could be used for a “variety of life-saving and transport roles”.But Mr Khan has said the proposal would not meet a “legal threshold” that requires that Londoners benefit, according to the Daily Telegraph. The city’s mayor expanded his car scrappage scheme in the face of intense pressure over the new ultra-low emissions zone (Ulez), designed to make the city’s air cleaner. Under the scheme the most polluting cars, which tend to be older models, must pay a daily charge of £12.50.But its unpopularity was seen as a major factor in Labour’s shock failure to win the Uxbridge by-election earlier this year. Within weeks of the Tory party’s surprise victory, Rishi Sunak declared he was “slamming the brakes on the war on motorists” and announced a raft of policies which led to accusations the government was watering down the UK’s ‘net zero’ environmental commitments. This week Mr Khan wrote to Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv, to say the proposal did not meet the “legal threshold” that requires the scheme to benefit Londoners from an “economic, social and environmental perspective”, the paper said.Susan Hall, the Conservative candidate for mayor of London, said: “Sadiq Khan’s refusal to send [non-Ulez compliant] cars to Ukraine, citing a legal quirk, is absurd. Londoners who choose to scrap their cars should have the freedom to decide for themselves if they want their car sent to support Ukraine. Standing with Ukraine against tyrants like Putin is not only a moral imperative but also in the best interest of all Londoners and the global community.”Mayor of London Sadiq Khan (Yui Mok/PA)Richard Lofthouse, who works with Car for Ukraine, a volunteer group that delivers 4x4s and trucks to the frontlines of the war effort, accused Mr Khan of a “lack of political courage”.A City Hall spokesman said that “altering the Ulez scheme for the purposes of exporting vehicles to Ukraine is not possible within the current limits of the GLA Act”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailFormer chancellor George Osborne has mocked the self-styled mafia “families” on the right of his party, saying they “blinked” when Rishi Sunak called their bluff over this week’s crunch Rwanda vote. The prime minister still faces a crucial showdown with his critics in the new year as he struggles to save his flagship “stop the boats” plan.But he survived a key Commons vote that could have plunged his government – and his leadership – into crisis. In the run-up, groups of Tory MPs dubbed the “five families” – after the mafia groupings in Mario Puzo’s The Godfather – pressed their party leader to toughen his legislation. But Mr Sunak held firm. “I thought the Conservative rebels overreached,” said Mr Osborne. “They were threatening to withhold their support. And they were demanding concessions from the prime minister.“And the prime minister didn’t give them any. He gave them a tiny, tiny, very thin ladder to climb down and he held the line and, as a result, they blinked.” He added: “And that’s not good. That’s not good if you’re trying to demonstrate the power of the Conservative right… it’s a really good example of that classic political mistake of issuing a threat that you’re not prepared to carry out.”Critical: George Osborne Mr Osborne added that he thought the five groupings were trying to “reopen the [Tory] civil war”, and invoked The Godfather to make fun of the climbdown. In the mafia sense, “going to the mattresses” is a term to describe war between different factions.During the conflict, those involved would escape to safe houses where they would sleep on mattresses rather than in beds, remaining alert to night-time attacks.Mr Osborne said: “I think to Rishi Sunak’s credit, he held the line and he called their bluff. He didn’t really change anything … but he stuck to his guns and then won pretty handsomely.“And the one thing those mafia families should never do is threaten to go to the mattresses and then lie down in bed.”Marlon Brando in ‘The Godfather’ Despite his victory, Mr Sunak still faces a battle within weeks to see off amendments brought by both the left and the right of the party. Even if the bill survives that hurdle, it is expected to then face difficulty in the House of Lords. No 10 refused to confirm the next vote on the Rwanda legislation will be scheduled for January, saying only the timing would be set out in the normal way. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA group of bereaved parents has accused the Government of “betrayal” over amendments to online safety laws around coroners accessing data following the death of a child.The Bereaved Families for Online Safety group has written to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and other ministers calling the proposed changes “callous”.Under the Online Safety Act, which passed into law earlier this year, coroners were to be given powers to work with online safety regulator Ofcom to access data from tech companies in the event a child has died and there is reasonable suspicion that the information is relevant to their death – an approach the families had campaigned for.However, the Government recently tabled amendments to the Data Protection and Digital Information Bill that the group claims water down this provision, to only include cases where a coroner suspects a child has taken their own life.The tragedy for each of us remains and we all share the need to understand more about their deaths, however they died. We find the changes the Government has made callousLetter from the Bereaved Families for Online Safety groupThe group has warned this would limit the ability of coroners to establish the full circumstances of a child’s death.The campaigners came together having each lost children due to exposure to online harms, in different circumstances, and campaigned for the provisions following their own difficulties accessing information.Their letter to the Prime Minister, Technology Secretary Michelle Donelan and Lord Chancellor Alex Chalk, says they are “devastated” to learn that “despite personal promises made to us in private meetings and assurances made at the despatch box”, the Government had “after the fact – placed limits on the agreed route”, adding “this is a betrayal”.“Our children died in different ways and in different circumstances relating to the digital world,” the letter says.“The tragedy for each of us remains and we all share the need to understand more about their deaths, however they died. We find the changes the Government has made callous.“Our lived experience is that coroners and police have persistently failed to get hold of the necessary data from tech companies for their investigations.“This routine failure is a miscarriage of justice and a source of great pain for many of us, and many more families bereaved by the loss of a child.”We know how important this is for families going through the most tragic circumstances. The Online Safety Act ensures information about any child who has died can be collected from social media platforms for coroner investigations, this is not changingGovernment spokespersonA Government spokesperson said: “We know how important this is for families going through the most tragic circumstances. The Online Safety Act ensures information about any child who has died can be collected from social media platforms for coroner investigations, this is not changing.“To make sure this works effectively, the changes we are making through the Data Protection Bill will ensure social media platforms keep the data coroners need where a child has taken their life, no matter what the circumstance.“This kind of data can already be retained and shared for police investigations where a serious crime like murder is committed, thanks to established police powers, but we continue to work with families to ensure we get this right.” More