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    Trump’s plan for Gaza leaves Arab nations facing an impossible choice | Nesrine Malik

    Arab states are in a bind. King Abdullah of Jordan squirmed in the Oval Office last week, as the press asked him and Donald Trump about the latter’s Gaza plan. He is in a tight spot, wanting to keep Trump onside while at the same time not agreeing to the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. Immediately after, anonymous Egyptian “security sources” – not parties prone to leaking without strategic direction from President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi – said that Sisi would not accept an invitation to visit Washington as long as the Gaza displacement plan was on the agenda. Now, this was probably more for the Egyptian public’s consumption than for Trump’s benefit – Egypt is in no position to make an enemy of the new administration – but it nonetheless shows how hard it is for Trump to secure the acquiescence of even the US’s closest allies.Saudi Arabia also postponed a visit to the US once Trump announced his intentions for Gaza. And in a remarkable change of tune, Saudi, which before 7 October 2023 was en route to normalisation with Israel and is not usually a country to make heated statements, lost its patience. When Benjamin Netanyahu quipped that maybe it would like to take Palestinians from Gaza (“they have a lot of territory”, he said), Saudi state media unleashed a storm of invective against him. When Trump announced his plan, Saudi Arabian authorities immediately put out a statement rejecting it. So keen was the government to signal that rejection that it released the statement at 4am local time.Leaders are scrambling to calibrate their responses at an emergency summit on Thursday hastily convened in Saudi Arabia. But they will struggle to do so without landing themselves in hot water with Trump, members of the Arab public or global opinion on the illegality of the plan. “The current approach is going to be difficult,” the United Arab Emirates (UAE) ambassador to the US said when asked if his government could find “common ground” with Trump on Gaza. He might have got away with that. But perhaps feeling that it was a little too strong, he went on to say that “we are all in the solution-seeking business” and he doesn’t really “see an alternative to what’s being proposed”. The clip immediately started doing the rounds on social media as evidence of the UAE’s endorsement of ethnic cleansing. There is clearly no consensus on Trump’s Gaza approach, or even how to respond to it, between countries that make up a political bloc but have divergent interests.Time is running out. On Sunday, Marco Rubio kicked off a trip to Israel and the Middle East. Conversations that some have been avoiding on Trump’s home turf will have to happen there. A need to come up with a common line and strategy on behalf of Arab countries is now pressing. The task is to thread a needle: flattery of Trump and rejection of his Gaza plan are irreconcilable, and each time even a single head of state engages with Trump or is asked about Gaza, there is the risk of a comment that inflames feelings or infuriates the US emperor. The Arab summit seems a very long way away when every day brings another Trump gambit or threats to the end of the ceasefire in Gaza.The scramble is part of a bigger problem. Arab states are unable to settle on a position on Palestine. Before 7 October, normalisation agreements with Israel had been secured by some Arab nations and were under way with others, with Palestinian statehood a nominally plausible prospect subject to technical questions, even though in reality everyone knew it was more remote than ever. The war killed that plausibility, and Trump buried it.With the stakes so raised, it is impossible for Arab nations to engage with Israel and the US on Gaza and Palestine one way or the other without undoing something big. The political landscape is finely balanced. Egypt and Jordan are the most important parties when it comes to any displacement of Palestinians from Gaza due to their proximity, and would be most affected by any resettlement campaign. They are also big US foreign assistance recipients with weak economies and governments with shaky mandates. These payments and military aid are in part remuneration for these states being “stabilising” parties in the region, serving as buffers between Israel, Iran, Hamas and all proxies, absorbing refugees and facilitating the movement of US military assets through the region. Losing US aid weakens not only their economies, but also their militaries, security agencies and ability to maintain the patronages and oppressions needed to stabilise politics.But there are other calculations. Agreeing to a plan that involves the expulsion of Palestinians in essence turns all receiving and facilitating countries into parties to what will simply be a wider, differently configured Israel-Palestine conflict. Instead of the removal of Palestinians from Gaza being an end to something, it would be the beginning of something else, with the horror of mass displacement on top. It is unfathomable not only in cruelty and criminality, but also in terms of practicality: already, 35% of Jordan’s population are refugees. Also – and Trump can be forgiven for not getting his head around this, considering how invisible they are – people live in these countries, millions of them. They might not have a say in how their politics is run, but they have an opinion. That opinion has historically been managed but by no means erased. It’s not a safe bet to assume that the mass removal of Palestinians won’t set off something explosive, either in terms of popular discord, or its exploitation by competing political or even extremist players.In short, Arab governments are being forced to confront and settle a question that goes to the very soul of the contemporary region – what does Arab identity even mean any more? Is it just a group of countries that speak the same language and share borders, but with regimes and elites that have become too enmeshed with the west to be viable on their own terms? Or is there still some residual sense of agency in those regimes, some echo of political integrity and duty towards other Arabs?Beyond the existential, though, here is what Arab leaders should learn from Trump giving them orders about their territories and people: the price of their US-stabilised status quo is now so high that it makes less and less sense on a practical basis. To submit to Trump would be to accept full vassal status and summon new domestic challenges, and all for an unreliable benefactor. To defy him would entail a full-blown reconfiguration of politics in the region that might seem too colossal to contemplate. Arab political elites find themselves in this mortifying position because of their historic feebleness on Palestine: it is a concentrated expression of their own weakness, capture and shortsighted self-interest. The future of Gaza is no longer an issue that can be finessed while saving face indefinitely. Trump’s plan is a gateway to the final erosion of the integrity and sovereignty of the wider Middle East.

    Nesrine Malik is a Guardian columnist

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    Iran and Trump Are Front of Mind at Saudi Summit

    Leaders from across the Arab and Muslim world were in Riyadh for a meeting officially convened to discuss the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon.Leaders from across the Arab world gathered on Monday in the capital of Saudi Arabia for a summit that came at a delicate moment for the kingdom, which has signaled a rapprochement with Iran after a violent, decades-long rivalry.The meeting was officially convened to discuss the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, where Israel’s military is battling Iran-backed militant groups. It takes place amid heightened regional tensions and the prospect of a hawkish Trump administration on Iran.Saudi Arabia had been preparing to recognize Israel, but the wars in Gaza and Lebanon cooled that prospect. Now, the kingdom and its allies find themselves warming to Tehran. Last month, the foreign ministers of the Persian Gulf states met for the first time as a group with their Iranian counterpart. On Sunday, the chief of staff of Saudi Arabia’s armed forces met with his Iranian counterpart in Tehran — further signaling a thaw in relations as Iran considers a response to Israeli attacks on its territory.Saudi Arabia’s powerful crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, emphasized the relationship in his opening remarks at the summit on Monday.“We call on the international community to compel Israel to respect Iran’s sovereignty and not to attack its territory,” he told the audience in Riyadh, the Saudi capital. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been locked in a long battle for regional dominance, a rivalry shaped by the competing branches of Islam each country embraces. Iran’s network of regional proxies — which includes Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon — has long been a particular source of concern for Saudi Arabia.While Hamas and Hezbollah have been weakened by the Israeli military’s operations in Gaza and Lebanon, Iran still arms and supports the Houthis in Yemen — a group that has been implicated in attacks on the kingdom.“The issue that we’ve had, and that was the basis for the divergence in our relationship, was Iran’s regional behavior, which from our perspective has not contributed to stability,” the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, said last week. “We are having very, very clear and honest conversations with the Iranians.”Analysts said that Saudi Arabia could also be using the summit in Riyadh as an opportunity to send a message to the incoming Trump administration. President-elect Donald J. Trump has said he will “stop wars” when he takes office, noted Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.“Saudi Arabia could be trying to position itself as an attractive and credible choice for the Trump administration to work with if Trump follows through with his pledge to broker a deal to end the war, especially given the fact that diplomatic efforts led by other regional mediators, notably Qatar and Egypt, have failed to bear fruit,” Mr. Alhasan said. More

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    The Guardian view on foreign powers in Sudan: struggling for advantage while civilians starve | Editorial

    The often denied but obvious involvement of foreign powers in Sudan’s deadly civil war is now firmly in the spotlight. Tens of thousands of people, including many civilians, have been killed since it began last April. Now, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has accused the Sudanese armed forces (SAF) of bombing its ambassador’s residence in Khartoum, causing “extensive damage”. The SAF denied it, claiming that last month’s strike was the work of the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), backed by the UAE.What’s not in doubt is that both sides are committing war crimes and that they are able to do so because foreign governments are supporting them. The ceaseless flow of arms has resulted in a vast, growing humanitarian disaster. Last week, UN-appointed experts accused combatants of using “starvation tactics” against 25 million civilians. Additionally, 10 million people have been displaced, and diseases such as cholera are rapidly spreading amid the world’s largest hunger crisis.While the autumn harvest should somewhat alleviate immediate food shortages for many, the longer-term prognosis is catastrophic. Both factions have targeted volunteers working to feed the hungry, many of whom are former members of the resistance committees that led the pro-democracy protests a few years ago.Wars between would-be strongmen punish and kill the powerless. But there is something especially grotesque about seeing the citizens of Sudan, having seen off a dictator and attempted to transition to civilian government, sacrificed to the cynical interests of outsiders.Though the UAE denies supporting the RSF under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, UN experts have laid out “credible” allegations of arms shipments. The UAE is interested in strategically valuable Red Sea ports and resources from gold to land. Saudi Arabia and Egypt support the SAF, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who has also sought closer ties with Iran.All this has been described as “a Middle East war being played out in Africa”. But diplomatic energy is focused on the spiralling Middle East war in the Middle East. When the UAE’s leader, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, visited Mr Biden in Washington recently, Sudan merited just two paragraphs in their lengthy joint statement. Sudan has not always been the priority even when it comes to Sudan. A new paper by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace notes that the US never matched rhetorical support for the democratic opening there with adequate strategic planning, engagement or assistance. The Trump administration’s priority was pressuring the transitional government to recognise Israel as it tried to advance its Abraham accords.The latest plans for informal talks to resolve the struggle between the two generals fell through. Having recently launched a counteroffensive to retake Khartoum, Gen Burhan appears in denial about the strength of his hand. A resolution in Sudan seems unlikely unless key external actors – namely the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt – reach an agreement. With the US showing no sign of turning up the pressure, the UK government, which leads on the issue at the UN security council, should step up. But so should others. The UAE was dismayed when the US rapper Macklemore pulled out of a concert in Dubai over its role in Sudan. Its keenness to burnish its international standing means that a cultural boycott and protests by sports stars and fans could have real impact.

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    Dubai Flooding Photos and Video: Heavy Rains in UAE and Oman Kill at Least 19

    A relentless deluge of rain battered the United Arab Emirates and Oman this week, killing at least 20 people, causing scores of delays and cancellations at Dubai’s airport and bringing other cities to a standstill in what experts have described as a weather system supercharged by climate change.The storm first hit Oman on Sunday, killing 19 people as it caused widespread flash flooding and turned streets into raging rivers in Muscat, the capital. In the U.A.E., which experienced its largest rainfall in 75 years, one person died in the city of Ras Al-Khaimah and the authorities urged residents to remain at home as videos showed cars submerged on gridlocked highways and planes taxiing down flooded runways.Here are photos and video of the flooding:The Associated PressThe deluge flooded parts of Dubai, the financial hub of the United Arab Emirates.Ali Haider/EPA, via ShutterstockPeople pushing a car during heavy rainfall in Dubai.Amr Alfiky/ReutersTwo men dragging a shopping cart through floodwaters in Dubai.Ahmed Ramazan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesTrucks pumping water from a street in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates.Amr Alfiky/ReutersSubmerged cars on a highway in Dubai.Associated PressFloodwaters raged through the streets in Al-Mudhaibi, Oman.Ahmed Ramazan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesWading through a street in Sharjah.Amr Alfiky/ReutersA car stranded in Dubai.-/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesDubai International Airport, where scores of flights were delayed or canceled in the wake of the deluge. More

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    ‘Russia Outside Russia’: For Elite, Dubai Becomes a Wartime Harbor

    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — On an artificial island on the edge of the Persian Gulf, Dima Tutkov feels safe.There are none of the anti-Russian attitudes that he hears about in Europe. He has noticed no potholes or homelessness, unlike what he saw in Los Angeles. And even as his ad agency turns big profits back in Russia, he does not have to worry about being drafted to fight in Ukraine.“Dubai is much more free — in every way,” he said, sporting an intricately torn designer T-shirt at a cafe he just opened in the city, where his children are now in a British school. “We are independent of Russia,” he said. “This is very important.”A year into a historic onslaught of economic sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s rich are still rich. And in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates’ biggest city, they have found their wartime harbor.Among the city’s waterfront walkways, palatial shopping malls and suburban cul-de-sacs, Russian is becoming a lingua franca. Oligarchs mingle in exclusive resorts. Restaurateurs from Moscow and St. Petersburg race to open there. Entrepreneurs like Mr. Tutkov are running their Russian businesses from Dubai, and opening up new ones.The Dubai Marina Mall attracts Russians who are visiting or who have relocated to the city.Dima Tutkov, a founder of the cafe Angel Cakes, at the Bluewaters Island location.Dubai’s new Russian diaspora spans a spectrum that includes multibillionaires who have been punished with sanctions and middle-class tech workers who fled President Vladimir V. Putin’s draft. But to some extent, they share the same reasons for being in the Emirates: It has maintained direct flights to Russia, staked out neutral ground on the war in Ukraine, and, they say, displays none of the hostility toward Russians that they perceive in Europe.“Why do business somewhere that they’re not friendly to you?” says Tamara Bigaeva, who recently opened a two-story outpost of a Russian beauty clinic that is already welcoming longtime clients. “In Europe, they clearly don’t want to see us.”Indeed, a major draw of Dubai is that it is apolitical, according to interviews with Russians who have settled there. Unlike in Western Europe, there are no Ukrainian flags displayed in public and no rallies of solidarity. The war itself feels far away. Anyone in Dubai harboring anti-Russian sentiments would most likely keep them to themselves, anyway; protests in the Emirates’ authoritarian monarchy are effectively illegal, and freedom of assembly is severely limited.The presence of wealthy Russians in Dubai at a time when they have been largely cut off from the West shows how Mr. Putin has been able to maintain the social contract that is key to his domestic support: In exchange for loyalty, those close to power can amass enormous riches.The State of the WarTesting Swiss Neutrality: The Alpine nation makes arms that Western allies want to send to Ukraine. Swiss law bans this, driving a national debate about whether its concept of neutrality should change.Kupiansk: Months after Russian soldiers were driven out of the town in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, Ukrainian authorities are stepping up efforts to evacuate civilians amid relentless Russian shelling.Bakhmut: Ukraine insisted that its forces were fending off relentless Russian attacks in Bakhmut, even as Western analysts said that Moscow’s forces had captured most of the embattled city’s east and established a new front line cutting through its center.In fact, one political scientist, Ekaterina Schulmann, said Mr. Putin has been signaling to businessmen that he is prepared to remove still more obstacles to enrichment. A recent law, for example, frees lawmakers from having to make public their income and property.“Yes, we’ve cut you off from the First World, but things won’t get any worse for you,” Ms. Schulmann said, describing how she sees Mr. Putin’s revised contract with the elite. “First of all, there are many other countries that are friendly to us. Second, you’ll have plenty of opportunities to get even richer, and we will no longer prosecute you for corruption.”Publicly, Mr. Putin has been calling on jet-setting Russian elites to refocus their lives and their investments inside Russia. But the rich who have relocated to Dubai have other ideas.Nail services at the Russian beauty chain Sugar in Dubai’s Marina District.Tamara Bigaeva, founder of the Evolution Aesthetics Clinic in the upscale neighborhood of Jumeirah in Dubai.“For all of us, this is an island of safety for a certain period of time,” said Anatoly Kamenskikh, a Russian real estate salesman who brags that his team sold $300 million worth of property in Dubai last year — the vast majority to Russian citizens. “Everyone is trying to park their assets somewhere.”Mr. Kamenskikh’s real estate developer, Sobha Realty, celebrated Dubai’s Russian-driven real estate boom by setting up a miniature St. Basil’s Cathedral and artificial snow outside the sales office. A section of the artificial island called the Palm Jumeirah is lined with Russian restaurants and nightclubs, one of which was packed on a recent Wednesday night as guests ordered $1,200 bottles of Dom Pérignon Champagne that dancing waiters delivered with lighted sparklers.When one drunken guest yelled out, “Glory to Ukraine!” the bouncers swiftly saw him out.Sobha Hartland, a new development project by the upscale real estate developer Sobha.Anatoly Kamenskikh at Sobha’s sales center. He calls Dubai “an island of safety.”“You get the feeling that they have their head in the sand,” Dmytro Kotelenets, a Ukrainian entertainment producer who moved to Dubai with his family, said of the Russians around him. “They either don’t want to notice what’s happening between Russia and Ukraine, or they think that nothing has changed.”In his state-of-the-nation speech last month, Mr. Putin called on Russia’s wealthy to “be with your Motherland” and to bring their financial assets home, rather than to view Russia “as simply a source of income” from abroad.In fact, many of Russia’s rich are simply shifting their lives to the United Arab Emirates, which — like the rest of the Middle East — has refused to join the West’s sanctions against Moscow.“I’m in Dubai, I’m chilling,” go the lyrics to the current No. 1 song in Russia, according to Apple Music. “Yeah, I’m rich, and I don’t hide it.”A view of the Palm Jumeirah, which has some of the most sought-after real estate in Dubai.A street scene in the Deira District of Dubai.The Emirates has a population of about 10 million, of whom only about a million are Emirati citizens. The rest are expatriates, including millions of Indians and Pakistanis, and smaller numbers of Europeans and Americans.A New York Times analysis of flight records last spring found that the United Arab Emirates became the top destination for private flights out of Russia in the weeks after the invasion, which began Feb. 24, 2022. Since then, by all accounts, the country’s allure has only grown.Russian government statistics show that Russians took 1.2 million trips to the Emirates in 2022, compared with one million in the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Many of those visitors put down roots: Russians were the leading nonresident buyers of Dubai real estate in 2022 by nationality, according to Betterhomes, a Dubai brokerage.First, there are the tycoons. Andrey Melnichenko, a Russian coal and fertilizer billionaire, moved to the United Arab Emirates last year after sanctions forced him to leave his longtime home in Switzerland. Last month, in the hushed lobby of an exclusive resort, another penalized Russian businessman said he was in town for a birthday party.Russian officials and their families also visit, though they try to avoid calling attention to their presence, and for good reason: In the northwest Russian region of Vologda, the pro-Kremlin United Russia party expelled two local lawmakers after social media posts placed them in Dubai. One of them, Russian journalists studying their posts reported, was vacationing there with Ksenia Shoigu, the daughter of the Russian defense minister.The elite cross paths at Angel Cakes, an Instagram-friendly cafe that Mr. Tutkov, the advertising entrepreneur, opened on an artificial island called Bluewaters in the shadow of the world’s tallest Ferris wheel. One frequent guest of the cafe, the former president of a major Russian company, quipped, “Dubai is becoming a part of Russia outside Russia.”Performers singing at Chalet Berezka, a Russian restaurant and nightclub in Palm Jumeirah.Staff members serving a bottle of Dom Pérignon, priced at about $1,200, to guests at Chalet Berezka.Mr. Tutkov dismissed as an “illusion” the idea that sanctions had wrecked the Russian economy. His advertising agency, he said, was profiting as companies race to fill the vacuum left by Western corporations that pulled out of Russia. His clients include Haier, a Chinese home appliance maker trying to break into a market that had been dominated by more established brands.Sanctions on the financial system also proved no hindrance. Last summer, the ruble soared to historic highs against the dollar. Mr. Tutkov said he took advantage of the exchange rate by using Russian banks that had not been placed under sanction to move some of his ad agency’s profits to Dubai.“We were exchanging into dollars and transferring them here,” he said. “In dollars, we were getting colossal excess profits, you understand? And everyone was doing this.”Mr. Tutkov and his family had planned to spend the summer in Moscow. But after Mr. Putin’s draft last fall, he is no longer sure he will go back.“These are colossal risks,” said Mr. Tutkov, 39. “What if you can’t leave or they take you into the army or something?”The diaspora also includes smaller earners, among them art-world types, technology workers and employees of Western companies that relocated their Moscow offices to the city.Dmitri Balakirev, who worked in tech in the Ural Mountains, left Russia because he opposed the war, he said, and went to Dubai because he had visited it previously thanks to direct flights from his city.Mr. Balakirev decided to stay and start a real estate agency. He judged that direct flights to Russia were likely to remain, allowing him to stay in touch with his relatives. And he saw it as a place where he could make a living.Potential buyers at Sobha’s sales center looking at a model of a planned development.Dmitri Balakirev, far back at right, an agent at Inside Realty, in Dubai’s Media City.Emirati officials say that their banks follow all American sanctions-related rules. Indeed, many Russian émigrés say that among the hardest parts about moving to Dubai is opening a bank account, attributing monthslong waits to the banks’ exacting compliance requirements.“There are many Russians who are not sanctioned and are interested in safer havens,” Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to the Emirates’ president, told reporters last year.Among those who found a haven in Dubai last year is the Russian pop star Daria Zoteyeva, the singer of Russia’s current No. 1 hit. She now lives in an unfinished luxury housing development in the desert. At night, a light show flashes across the Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest skyscraper, in the distance.To make music, Ms. Zoteyeva said in an interview on a roadside bench, “you need to be in a good mood.” Dubai, she goes on, is a “sunny place” where the war “doesn’t affect you.” She refuses to take a position on the war, which she calls “this whole situation.”“It’s to avoid letting go of my audience, and to make money,” she said, explaining her silence. “Because it’s a lot of money. It’s a lot of money.”Fountains at The Pointe on the swanky Palm Jumeirah.Vivian Nereim More

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    John Kerry backs UAE appointment of oil chief to oversee UN climate talks

    John Kerry backs UAE appointment of oil chief to oversee UN climate talks US climate envoy says pick is a ‘terrific choice’ but activists equate pick to asking ‘arms dealers to lead peace talks’ US climate envoy John Kerry backs the United Arab Emirates’ decision to appoint the CEO of a state-run oil company to preside over the upcoming UN climate negotiations in Dubai, citing his work on renewable energy projects.In an interview Sunday with the Associated Press, the former US secretary of state acknowledged that the Emirates and other countries relying on fossil fuels to fund their state coffers face finding “some balance” ahead.However, he dismissed the idea that Sultan al-Jaber’s appointment should be automatically disqualified due to him leading the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Activists, however, equated it to asking “arms dealers to lead peace talks” when authorities announced his nomination on Thursday.“I think that Dr Sultan al-Jaber is a terrific choice because he is the head of the company. That company knows it needs to transition,” Kerry said after attending an energy conference in the Emirati capital. “He knows – and the leadership of the UAE is committed to transitioning.”Still, Abu Dhabi plans to increase its production of crude oil from 4m barrels a day up to 5m even while the UAE promises to be carbon neutral by 2050 – a target that remains difficult to assess and one that the Emirates still hasn’t fully explained how it will reach.Kerry pointed to a speech al-Jaber gave Saturday in Abu Dhabi, in which he called for the upcoming Cop – or Conference of Parties – to move “from goals to getting it done across mitigation, adaptation, finance and loss and damage”. Al-Jaber also warned that the world “must be honest with ourselves about how much progress we have actually achieved, and how much further and faster we truly need to go”.“He made it absolutely clear we’re not moving fast enough. We have to reduce emissions. We have to begin to accelerate this transition significantly,” Kerry said. “So I have great confidence that the right issues are going to be on the table, that they’re going to respond to them and lead countries to recognize their responsibility.”Each year, the country hosting the UN negotiations nominates a person to chair the talks. Hosts typically pick a veteran diplomat as the talks can be incredibly difficult to steer between competing nations and their interests. The nominee’s position as “Cop president” is confirmed by delegates at the start of the talks, usually without objections.Al-Jaber is a trusted confidant of UAE leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. He also led a once-ambitious project to erect a $22bn “carbon-neutral” city on Abu Dhabi’s outskirts – an effort later pared back after the global financial crisis that struck the Emirates hard beginning in 2008. Today, he also serves as the chairman of Masdar, a clean energy company that grew out of the project.Skepticism remains among activists over al-Jaber, however. A call by countries, including India and the United States, for a phase down of oil and natural gas never reached a public discussion during Cop27 in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh in November.Activists worry that Cop being held in a Mideast nation reliant on fossil fuel sales for a second year in a row could see something similar happen in the Emirates.Asked about that fear, Kerry said: “I don’t believe UAE was involved in changing that.”“There’s going to be a level of scrutiny – and and I think that’s going to be very constructive,” the former US senator and 2004 presidential contender said. “It’s going to help people, you know, stay on the line here.”“I think this is a time, a new time of accountability,” he added.TopicsCop28John KerryUnited Arab EmiratesUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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    Oil Realpolitik Has Returned With a Vengeance

    The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media. More

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    The Guardian view on Biden’s risky gamble: betting on lowering oil prices | Editorial

    The Guardian view on Biden’s risky gamble: betting on lowering oil pricesEditorialThe climate agenda risks being derailed by energy market disruptions caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine Joe Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia this month highlights the paradox of American power. The US has the economic heft to punish an opponent – but not enough to alter the behaviour of a determined adversary. Sanctions will see Russia’s economy contract by 9% next year. But Washington needs more nations to join its camp to halt Moscow’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. Mr Biden has been forced to prioritise war objectives over ethics in meeting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who the CIA says ordered the barbaric murder of the prominent journalist Jamal Khashoggi.The havoc that Russia’s war has caused on the world’s energy markets is contributing to an economic crisis that is playing into the hands of Mr Biden’s domestic opponents. This highlights the west’s failure to confront the climate emergency with a less carbon-intensive economic model. The green agenda risks being derailed by sky-high hydrocarbon prices. This scenario could have been averted if western nations had accelerated their net zero agendas by driving down energy demand – the lack of UK home insulation is one glaring failure – and spending on renewables to achieve energy security. Instead, this week the G7 watered down pledges to halt fossil fuel investment over fears of winter energy shortages as Moscow squeezes supplies.Boycotts and bans against Russia, even as they take a toll on the global economy, will cause ordinary Russians hardship. But this has not moved Vladimir Putin. Soaring crude prices fuel Moscow’s war machine. A price cap on Russia’s petroleum exports might choke off the cash. But a concern is that China and India will buy Mr Putin’s oil at a price that still lets the Kremlin profit. Clever technical solutions mask hard choices. Sanctions drive up energy prices for consumers unless there are alternative supplies available. Right now, to bring down oil prices means producing more planet-destroying energy. That requires US engagement with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both of which bear responsibility for the disastrous Yemen war. Washington might have to woo Venezuela and Iran, nations which will play Moscow off against the west.The US is pursuing a three-pronged strategy: increasing pressure on Russia; getting more oil into markets to bring prices down; and allowing central banks to raise interest rates to levels that look as if they might cause a recession. The latter is designed to signal to oil producers that energy prices will collapse. The painful recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s played a part in bringing down oil prices after energy shocks – and contributed to the Soviet Union’s disintegration. But this took 15 years. Mr Putin’s Russia may not be as powerful as its forerunner. It might be more brittle than the Soviet Union. But there are few signs of imminent collapse.As the west seeks to reduce its reliance on Russian hydrocarbons, there seems to be a global “gold rush” for new fossil fuel projects defended as temporary supply measures. The risk, with the US as the largest hydrocarbon producer, is that the world becomes locked into an irreversible climate catastrophe. Europe might become as reliant on US gas as it once was on Russian gas. Donald Trump proved America could be an unreliable ally. Rightwing supreme court justices have hobbled Mr Biden’s power to limit harmful emissions. Meanwhile, China has emerged as a world leader in renewable energy as well as the metals on which it depends. Mr Biden had wanted to transition the US away from oil. Yet during his time in office the sector’s market value has doubled because prices have risen. Jarringly, as the climate emergency grows ever more urgent, fossil fuel appears the pivot on which the war in Ukraine will turn.TopicsUkraineOpinionClimate crisisJoe BidenUS politicsSaudi ArabiaMohammed bin SalmanOileditorialsReuse this content More