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    New Home Sales Continue to Grow

    As owners remain reluctant to put their properties on the market, developers are rushing to build new homes to meet demand.When Joel Adler decided it was time to downsize from his six-bedroom house in Parkland, Fla., where he had lived for more than 20 years, he was disappointed with the lack options.“There weren’t a lot of homes to look at,” said Mr. Adler, a 76-year-old retired teacher, who had been searching for a year and a half.Eventually, he turned to Valencia Sound, a gated community in Boynton Beach, Fla., that opened in 2019, joining the growing ranks of home buyers who opted for a newly built house instead of an existing one, a rare bright spot in an otherwise gloomy market.The housing market has been mired for much of the past year, bogged down by high prices, soaring mortgage rates and a dearth of inventory, pushing many would-be buyers to the sidelines.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    The End of Economic Pessimism?

    Seven reasons Americans are down on the economy. By many measures, the U.S. economy is strong right now. Unemployment is near its lowest point in decades. Inflation has slowed down. Wages have grown faster than prices since last year. Stock prices have surged.But many Americans are not feeling it, and say the economy is in bad shape. The persistent pessimism has baffled many economists.The situation may be changing. American confidence in the economy has picked up in recent months, surveys show. And President Biden’s campaign hopes the turnaround will boost his re-election prospects.Still, measures of consumer confidence remain lower than normal. Why have Americans resisted the good economic news? Experts have tried to answer that question for months. Today’s newsletter will cover seven of their leading explanations.1) InflationThe first, and most obvious, explanation is rising prices. Historically, Americans hate high inflation. For one, it is universal; high prices affect everyone. In comparison, high unemployment directly affects only a minority, even during recessions.“When prices rise, it feels like something is taken away from you,” my colleague Jeanna Smialek, who covers the economy, told me.Inflation More

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    Why Americans Are Feeling Better About the Economy

    In 2022, Republicans seemed to have an easy path to regaining the White House, no actual policy proposals required. All they had to do was contrast Donald Trump’s economic record — which they portrayed as stellar — with the lousy economy under President Biden.That rosy view of the Trump economy involved a lot of selective forgetting — more about that in a minute. But the Biden economy was indeed troubled for much of 2022, with the highest inflation in 40 years. Jobs were plentiful, with unemployment near a 50-year low, but many economists were predicting an imminent recession.Since then, however, two terrible things have happened — terrible, that is, from the point of view of Republican partisans. First, the economy has healed: Inflation has plunged without any major rise in unemployment. Second, Americans finally seem to be noticing the good news.Before I get to that, however, let’s talk for a second about Biden’s predecessor. How can people claim that Trump presided over a great economy when he was the first president since Herbert Hoover to leave the White House with fewer Americans employed than when he arrived?We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Brainard Pitches Biden’s Economic Efforts In Hard-Hit Regions

    Lael Brainard, the National Economic Council director, contends the administration deserves credit for recent gains in areas battered by past job losses.President Biden’s top economic adviser will argue on Monday that the administration is engineering a revival of economically disadvantaged communities across the nation, largely relying on anecdotal evidence and patterns of new federal spending in places like Eastern Pennsylvania and Milwaukee, Wis.Lael Brainard, who heads Mr. Biden’s National Economic Council, will use a speech to the Brookings Institution in Washington to lay out a detailed blueprint of the administration’s efforts to bring jobs, investment and innovation to areas hobbled by the loss of jobs and industries.Those “place-based” policies are often directed at former industrial strongholds that were battered by automation and foreign competition. They are a cornerstone of Mr. Biden’s economic agenda across several major pieces of legislation he has signed and a big part of his re-election pitch. Whether voters perceive them as successful could affect Mr. Biden’s chances in November, particularly in industrial swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.Mr. Biden “came to office determined to invest in all of America, to leave no community behind. It is working,” Ms. Brainard plans to say, according to a copy of her prepared remarks. “Communities that had been left behind are making a comeback.”Place-based efforts were included in several laws that Mr. Biden signed, including those aimed at infrastructure, climate change and clean-energy production and semiconductors and other advanced manufacturing, all of which Ms. Brainard plans to spotlight on Monday afternoon. The Commerce and Transportation Departments have launched pilot programs to support neighborhoods that have historically been cut off from opportunity.Ms. Brainard will make case studies of two areas in particular: Allentown, Pa., and Milwaukee, both of which Mr. Biden visited recently.After his Allentown visit, Mr. Biden told reporters that he was “really reassured that what we’ve done has had an impact not just here in Eastern Pennsylvania and — but — in the Northeast, but throughout the country. And we’re going to do more.”Ms. Brainard does not plan to offer comprehensive national statistics to support the administration’s revival claims, other than a Treasury Department analysis that finds low-emission energy investments spurred by Mr. Biden’s climate law have disproportionately boosted lower-income areas and communities that have been historically reliant on fossil fuels. Ms. Brainard will say that the Allentown area, for example, has experienced a “boom” in job creation and small business formation under Mr. Biden, after listing investments the administration has steered to the region’s roads, airports and more. But she does not explicitly link that spending and those trends.Administration officials acknowledge that many of Mr. Biden’s programs to help hard-hit communities are still in their infancy, and that it may be difficult to assess their effects yet. But Ms. Brainard, in an interview ahead of the speech, said it was fair for Mr. Biden to claim credit for gains in areas like Allentown and Milwaukee.“In many left-behind communities, unemployment rates have been well above the national average for years,” she said. “And what you’re seeing in those communities now is that unemployment rates have actually moved down below 4 percent, which are, in some cases, a level they haven’t seen in a very long time.”The unemployment rate in the Allentown area was 3.9 percent in November, according to the Labor Department. That’s down from nearly 9.5 percent after the 2008 financial crisis and 4.2 percent on the eve of the pandemic in February 2020, when Donald J. Trump was president. In November, unemployment was 3.1 percent in the Milwaukee area, the same rate as it was in February 2020, and down from 10 percent after the 2008 recession.Mr. Trump has long promised on the campaign trail and in the White House to revitalize hard-hit American communities. He is making similar promises as he attempts to defeat Mr. Biden this fall, a counterpoint that looms over the president’s place-based effort.While Ms. Brainard will not mention Mr. Trump by name, she plans to cast Mr. Biden’s place-based policies as the antidote to what the administration calls the failed promises of “trickle-down economics,” including those practiced by the previous administration. That term has long been associated with Republican tax policies. By cutting rates on high earners and corporations, conservative economists have long contended, policymakers would stoke fast economic growth that would lift incomes for all workers.The Biden administration has attempted to broaden that trickle-down phrase to include the outsourcing of jobs and factories to foreign shores.Mr. Trump’s signature 2017 tax-cut law included deep cuts to corporate and individual tax rates, but it also featured a place-based program: a tax-based incentive called Opportunity Zones that sought to entice investors to put money into designated lower-income areas. The program has continued under Mr. Biden, even as his aides have debated whether to attempt to change it. Asked whether the administration judged that program to be succeeding, Ms. Brainard did not answer directly.“I’ve been very focused on making sure the president’s policies are implemented and are having the effect of lifting up these communities,” Ms. Brainard said. “That’s been my focus.” More

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    Americans’ Economic Confidence Is Returning. Will Biden Benefit?

    The White House is embracing a nascent uptick in economic sentiment. It is likely good news — but how it will map to votes is complicated.Low approval ratings and rock-bottom consumer confidence figures have dogged President Biden for months now, a worrying sign for the White House as the country enters a presidential election year. But recent data suggests the tide is beginning to turn.Americans are feeling more confident about the economy than they have in years, by some measures. They increasingly expect inflation to continue its descent, preliminary data indicates, and they think interest rates will soon moderate.Returning optimism, if it persists, could bolster Mr. Biden’s chances as he pushes for re-election — and spell trouble for former President Donald J. Trump, who is the front-runner for the Republican nomination and has been blasting the Democratic incumbent’s economic record.But political scientists, consumer sentiment experts and economists alike said it was too early for Democrats to take a victory lap around the latest economic data and confidence figures. Plenty of economic risks remain that could derail the apparent progress. In fact, models that try to predict election outcomes based on economic data currently point to a tossup come November.“We’re still very early in the election cycle, from the perspective of economic factors,” said Joanne Hsu, who heads one of the most frequently cited sentiment indexes as director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan. “A lot can happen.”The University of Michigan’s preliminary survey for January showed an unexpected surge in consumer sentiment: The index climbed to its highest level since July 2021, before inflation surged. While the confidence measure could be revised — and is still slightly below its long-run trend — it has been recovering quickly across age, income, education and geographic groups over the past two months.Confidence Is Still Down, but It’s ImprovingPreliminary January data from the University of Michigan survey suggested that consumer confidence is back at summer 2021 levels.

    Note: Final datapoint, for January, is preliminary.Source: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment SurveyBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Why Americans Are (Still) Mad About Inflation

    The United States has seen a steady decline in the rate of inflation, and yet many American voters are still upset over the cost of daily life. To understand this perception gap, Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, argues, we should consider the cost of a Snickers Bar. In this audio essay, he explains that frequent smaller purchases — like candy bars — shape our experience of the economy.(A full transcript of this audio essay will be available midday on the Times website.)Illustration by Akshita Chandra/The New York Times; Photograph by Matt Cardy/Getty ImagesThe Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow the New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, X (@NYTOpinion) and Instagram.This episode of “The Opinions” was produced by Jillian Weinberger. It was edited by Kaari Pitkin and Annie-Rose Strasser. Mixing by Sonia Herrero and Pat McCusker. Original music by Carole Sabouraud. Fact-checking by Kate Sinclair. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski. More

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    The Snickers Bar Is the Economic Indicator We Need

    The United States has just experienced one of the biggest collapses in consumer inflation in modern history. In June 2022 consumer prices had risen 9.1 percent over the previous year. By December 2023 the rate of increase had slowed to 3.4 percent. And yet, in survey after survey, voters still declare inflation to be at or near the top of their list of concerns.Why aren’t voters recognizing the decline in the inflation rate? Because voters are humans, and humans don’t think about inflation rationally. To understand why, let’s look at a Snickers bar.More than 12 Snickers bars are sold every second in the United States. That makes Snickers bars a very important part of consumer purchases, and so the price of a Snickers bar should be included in the inflation calculation. Yet Snickers bars do not consume a big portion of most families’ annual budget (at least they usually don’t).Most of us will spend far more of our budget on something like a television. With $1,500 a consumer could buy a high-end 55-inch television, or almost four Snickers bars a day for a year. Because items in the consumer price basket are weighted, roughly, by how much money consumers spend on that item in a year, television prices are more important than Snickers bars in the calculation of inflation.However, we probably buy a Snickers bar much more frequently, perhaps even daily. So we’re much more likely to remember the price of the Snickers bar and forget the price of the television we bought last year. Consumers tend to think only about the prices of high-frequency purchases — food for the family and fuel for the S.U.V.The different inflation rates for infrequent and frequent purchases is a big part of why consumers mistakenly believe inflation is higher than it actually is. The prices of more expensive goods like furniture and consumer electronics are actually falling — and have been falling for over a year. Once the post-pandemic surge in demand for electronics, furniture and similar items faded, manufacturers were unable to maintain higher prices, pulling the reported inflation numbers lower.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Trump’s Dominance and Snowy Weather Put Iowa’s Caucus Economy on Ice

    Even before a snowstorm brought Des Moines to a near standstill on Friday, the city felt decidedly more subdued than it usually does around the Iowa caucuses: quiet restaurants, empty streets, bartenders with little to do.The numbers confirm it: The 2024 caucuses are expected to bring less than 40 percent of the direct economic impact to the capital that the 2020 contest provided — an estimated $4.2 million, down from $11.3 million four years ago. Direct economic impact measures what visitors do, like sleeping, driving, eating and drinking.It is a striking decline that reflects, among other things, diminished media engagement in a presidential race that is less competitive than in past years, when the state has been inundated by presidential hopefuls, their campaigns and teams of journalists in hot pursuit.“Media is way down,” said Greg Edwards, the chief executive of the Greater Des Moines Convention and Visitors Bureau, which provided the numbers. “The major networks aren’t sending their major anchors like they have in the past.”The $4.2 million figure does not represent the caucuses’ total economic boom to Iowa. Tens of millions of dollars have flowed into the state in recent months, culminating this week in a frenzy of events. The campaigns and their supporting super PACs have spent $119.6 million on television advertising in Iowa, according to an analysis by AdImpact, a media-tracking firm.Downtown Des Moines on Friday, when presidential candidates canceled several events.Hilary Swift for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More